Issue No. 968, 03 January 2012 Articles & Other Documents:

Featured Article: India to Achieve N-Arm Triad in February

1. China Urges Stability in Strait of Hormuz 2. U.S. in No Position to Prevent Hormuz Strait Closure: IRGC Deputy Commander 3. 'Iran May Resume Talks with P5+1' 4. First Nuclear Fuel Rod Tested in Iran 5. Iranian Lawmaker Says Iran to Block Strait of Hormuz if Threatened 6. Iran Claims It Can Hit 'Any Target, Any Time' 7. Syria Sought Nuclear Know-How from Pakistan's Khan in 1980, 2002 8. France Says Iran Developing Nuclear Arms 9. Iran Warning to U.S. Warship Sends Tensions Soaring 10. North Korea Warns the World: No Change in Policy under Kim Jong-un 11. North Korea Says Names Kim Jong-un Top Military Commander 12. South Korea's Lee Calls on North to End Nuclear Activities 13. NKorea Holds Rally, Shows Young Kim Meeting Troops 14. Declare N-Doctrine: India to Pak 15. Russia Hands Over Nerpa to India: Report 16. Pakistan, India Swap Lists of Nuclear Sites 17. India to Achieve N-Arm Triad in February 18. Russia Submerges Nuclear Submarine to Douse Blaze 19. Repairs of Fire-Damaged Nuclear Sub to Take at Least One Year 20. Submarine’s Torpedo Compartment Was on Fire 21. Bulava Approved for Service 22. Iran's Nuclear Issue Escalates, but Unlikely into Conflict 23. Iran and the Strait 24. Analysis: N.Korea's Missile-Maker Seen in Key Role in New Regime 25. Military Action Isn’t the Only Solution to Iran 26. North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons 27. 81.7% Say NK Will Keep Nukes 28. For Nukes, another Lost Year

Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal. As part of USAF Counterproliferation Center’s mission to counter weapons of mass destruction through education and research, we’re providing our government and civilian community a source for timely counterproliferation information. This information includes articles, papers and other documents addressing issues pertinent to US military response options for dealing with chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats and countermeasures. It’s our hope this information resource will help enhance your counterproliferation issue awareness. Established in 1998, the USAF/CPC provides education and research to present and future leaders of the Air Force, as well as to members of other branches of the armed services and Department of Defense. Our purpose is to help those agencies better prepare to counter the threat from weapons of mass destruction. Please feel free to visit our web site at http://cpc.au.af.mil/ for in-depth information and specific points of contact. The following articles, papers or documents do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or other US government agencies. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved.

Issue No. 968, 03 January 2012 The following articles, papers or documents do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or other US government agencies. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved.

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Reuters U.S. China Urges Stability in Strait of Hormuz Thursday, December 29, 2011 BEIJING (Reuters) - China urged peace and stability on Thursday after Tehran threatened to punish proposed Western sanctions by choking off oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but declined to make any other comment about the crisis. The foreign ministry's terse, one sentence public response to Tehran's threats over the world's most important oil route reflects China's sensitivities about its close business links with Iran. "China hopes that peace and stability can be maintained in the strait," ministry spokesman Hong Lei told a briefing in answer to a question about escalating tensions that have pushed up oil prices. He did not answer a question about whether China had had any contact with Tehran or other governments about the threat. China's official Xinhua news agency said in a commentary speculation about war with Iran over the past few years had ended up simply amounting to "crying wolf." "To avoid the real arrival of the wolf, all sides should show greater sincerity and flexibility," it wrote. China has long defended its oil and trade ties with Iran as legitimate, and criticized unilateral sanctions that could stymie those ties. Iran's threat to block crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for Middle Eastern suppliers, followed the European Union's decision to tighten sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, as well as accompanying moves by the United States to tighten unilateral sanctions. China has driven global oil demand growth for a decade and has increasingly relied on shipments from the Middle East, where Iran and rival Saudi Arabia compete for the market. China bought 547,000 barrels per day of crude from Iran through to October this year, up from 426,000 barrels per day for all of 2010. Only Saudi Arabia and Angola sell more than Iran to China. International tensions with Iran have increased since a report by the United Nation's International Atomic Energy Agency in November concluded Tehran appears to have worked on designing a nuclear weapon and may still be pursuing research to that end. Iran denies this and says it is developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Iran has expanded its nuclear activities despite four rounds of U.N. sanctions since 2006 over its refusal to suspend uranium enrichment and give access to U.N. nuclear inspectors. As a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, China has the power to veto resolutions mandating such sanctions. But Beijing has instead voted for them, while working to ensure its oil and trade ties are not threatened. China, however, has also criticized the United States and European Union for imposing their own separate sanctions on Iran, and said they should not take steps reaching beyond the U.N. resolutions. Reporting by Chris Buckley; Writing by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Paul Tait http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/29/us-china-iran-idUSTRE7BS08E20111229 (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Tehran Times – Iran

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U.S. in No Position to Prevent Hormuz Strait Closure: IRGC Deputy Commander Saturday, December 31, 2011 TEHRAN – The deputy commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Brigadier General Hossein Salami, said on Thursday that the United States is in no position to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz if Tehran deems it necessary. Salami made the remarks in response to the warning issued by the U.S. Fifth Fleet on December 28, in which it said that it would not allow any disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. “Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated,” the Bahrain-based fleet said in an e-mail, according to Reuters. The warning came a day after the commander of the Iranian Navy, Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, in an interview with Press TV said, “Closing the Strait of Hormuz for Iran's armed forces is really easy ... or as Iranians say it will be easier than drinking a glass of water.” “But right now, we don't need to shut it as we have the Sea of Oman under control and we can control the transit,” said Sayyari, who is leading 10 days of war games in the strait, which began on December 24. Salami said, “The Americans are in no position to either allow or not allow us (to close the strait). The history of the confrontation between Iran and the U.S. has shown that.” “In the event that Iran’s vital interests are threatened in any way, we will use threat against threat and will not stop implementing our strategies,” he added. Iran will not ask for any country’s permission to employ its defensive strategies, he said, adding, “The Islamic Republic of Iran, over the past 33 years, has showed that it has successfully implemented its measures despite the U.S. interference.” He also said, “We will act more determinedly and strongly than ever to implement defensive strategies to defend the vital values of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” http://www.tehrantimes.com/politics/94016--us-in-no-position-to-prevent-hormuz-strait-closure-irgc-deputy- commander- (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Press TV – Iran 'Iran May Resume Talks with P5+1' Saturday, December 31, 2011 The Iranian envoy to Germany says a new round of nuclear talks between Iran and the world's six major powers will resume after all its conditions are agreed upon by both sides. In a Saturday interview, Alireza Sheikh-Attar said the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Saeed Jalili would soon write a letter to EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton to determine the modality for the future talks. He added that the Iran- P5+1 meeting would be scheduled after Jalili sends a letter to Ashton. Iran and the P5+1 -- Britain , China, France, Russia, and the United States plus Germany -- held two rounds of multifaceted talks in Geneva in December 2010 and in the Turkish city of Istanbul last January.

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Tehran says it is ready to continue talks based on common ground, adding, however, that it has no intention of backing down from its nuclear rights. The United States, Israel, and some of their allies accuse Tehran of pursuing military objectives in its nuclear program and have used this pretext to push for the imposition of sanctions on the country as well as to call for an attack on the country. Iran has vehemently refuted allegations leveled by the US and its allies against the country, arguing that as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Tehran has a right to use nuclear technology for peaceful use. http://presstv.com/detail/218686.html (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Tehran Times – Iran First Nuclear Fuel Rod Tested in Iran Political Desk Monday, January 02, 2012 TEHRAN – Scientists and researchers at the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran have successfully tested the first domestically produced nuclear fuel rod containing natural uranium, Iranian news agencies reported on Sunday. According to the reports, the first nuclear fuel rod was loaded into the core of the Tehran research reactor as part of an experiment to test its performance in operation. Now Iran should convert fuel rods into fuel plates to power the Tehran research reactor, which produces radioisotopes for cancer treatment. Iran has constructed an advanced plant at the Isfahan nuclear facility for manufacturing nuclear fuel plates. With the construction of the plant, Iran is now among the few countries that can manufacture both nuclear fuel rods and plates. The nuclear plant for converting enriched nuclear fuel into fuel rods was inaugurated in Isfahan in early spring 2009. Iranian officials had previously said that the technology for producing nuclear fuel plates does not differ greatly from the technology for producing nuclear fuel rods. http://tehrantimes.com/politics/94128-first-nuclear-fuel-rod-tested-in-iran (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Xinhua News – China Iranian Lawmaker Says Iran to Block Strait of Hormuz if Threatened January 02, 2012 TEHRAN, Jan. 2 (Xinhua) -- Rapporteur of the Iran's Majlis (parliament) National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Kazzem Jalali said Monday that Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz if its interests are threatened, the semi-official Fars news agency reported. Iran will use all its capabilities and possibilities to defend the country against foreign threats and the country will use the Strait of Hormuz as a defensive tool and will close the waterway if it comes under threat, Jalali told Fars. "Iran will definitely use the defensive potential of the Strait of Hormuz if it is faced with threats," he was quoted as saying.

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Jalali described the Strait of Hormuz as the world's strategic energy bottleneck, and said Iran does not like to close the strategic waterway and wants all countries to use it for transporting their energy needs, but in case Iran comes under threat, it will be obliged to use all its defensive tools. Last week, the U.S. Department of Defense warned Iran against any attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz which is one of the world's most important oil passage. "This is not just an important issue for security and stability in the region, but is an economic lifeline for countries in the Gulf, including Iran," Pentagon press secretary George Little said. "Interference with the transit or passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz will not be tolerated." Little's remarks came after Iran's top officials threatened to seal off the important oil passage. Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi said last week that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz if the West imposes sanctions on its oil exports. Following an International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran' s nuclear program in November, the United States, Britain and Canada announced new sanctions against Iran. Certain western countries have also said that they are considering sanctions against Iran's Central Bank and Iran's crude exports. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-01/02/c_131339697.htm (Return to Articles and Documents List)

London Telegraph – U.K. Iran Claims It Can Hit 'Any Target, Any Time' In a drill that Iran claims shows that it could hit Israel and US bases, the country test-fires a long range shore-to-sea missile called Qader. 02 January 2012 Iran claimed today that it had successfully test-fired two long-range missiles during a naval exercise in the Gulf, flexing its military muscle to show it could hit Israel and U.S. bases in the region if attacked. In response to mounting Western pressure over its nuclear ambitions, Iran started a naval drill in the Gulf last week and warned that it could shut the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions were imposed on its oil exports, the country's main revenue source. The 10 days of naval war-games and the warning over the Strait, a narrow Gulf shipping lane through which 40 percent of world oil passes, have rattled oil markets and pushed up crude prices. Analysts say Iran's increasingly strident rhetoric is aimed at sending a message to the West that it should think twice about the economic cost of putting further pressure on Tehran. "The Strait of Hormuz is in our possession. Security of the Strait is in our control, and the Strait is in our total control," said Iranian commander Habibulah Sayari. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/8988069/Iran-claims-it-can-hit-any-target-any- time.html (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Mainichi Daily News – Japan January 2, 2012 Syria Sought Nuclear Know-How from Pakistan's Khan in 1980, 2002

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ISLAMABAD (Kyodo) -- The Syrian government approached disgraced Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan twice -- in 1980 and 2002 -- for assistance in its clandestine nuclear program, but the moves were rejected, Khan recently told Kyodo News. The U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency in May this year issued a report that a facility that Damascus had been constructing was "very likely" a nuclear reactor. The accusation, although completely denied by Syria, served to corroborate claims that it had been working on a secret nuclear program for many years. Although Khan, the father of Pakistan's atomic bomb, in 2004 confessed to selling nuclear technology to Iran, North Korea and Libya, he has never previously spoken of his contacts with Syria. Khan said that Syria first contacted him in 1980, when he had completed Pakistan's first uranium enrichment facility. Specifically, the Syrian ambassador in Islamabad visited Khan at his laboratory in a suburb of the capital and told him that the government of then-President Hafiz al-Asad was interested in uranium enrichment and requested his cooperation in Syria's nuclear development. It was decided that the Syrians should be told clearly that such cooperation was not possible until it was on country-to-country basis, according to Khan. In 2002, the current administration of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, son of Hafez, invited Khan to Syria, ostensibly to suggest improvements in technical and scientific education. However, the real purpose of the invitation was to acquire nuclear know-how. During a trip he made to Syria the same year, Khan suggested to the Syrian authorities that basic industrial infrastructure and workshops were necessary for any country aspiring to master nuclear technology. According to the Associated Press, buildings in northwest Syria closely match the design of a uranium enrichment plant provided to Libya when Muammar Gaddafi was trying to build nuclear weapons under Khan's guidance, fuelling suspicions that Khan directly cooperated in Syria's nuclear program. In 2007, Israeli warplanes destroyed a suspected plutonium production reactor in northern Syria it had apparently built with help from North Korea, which had previously received the technology from Khan. The Assad government continues to violently crack down on pro-democracy protesters, drawing international criticism. Khan, former head of the Khan Research Laboratory, confessed on television in 2004 that he had passed nuclear secrets to North Korea, Iran and Libya. But in recent meetings with selected people allowed to meet him, he has claimed that he was pressurized to take the blame, failing which Pakistan could be declared a terrorist state. (Mainichi Japan) January 2, 2012 http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/international/news/20120102p2g00m0in003000c.html (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Herald Sun – Australia France Says Iran Developing Nuclear Arms By Agence France-Presse (AFP) January 03, 2012

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FRENCH Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said he was convinced that Iran was developing nuclear weapons and called for the EU to impose tougher sanctions on Tehran. "Iran is pursuing the development of its nuclear arms, I have no doubt about it," he told French television i-Tele. "The last report by the International Atomic Energy Agency is quite explicit on this point." "This is why France, without closing the path of negotiation and dialogue with Iran, wants stricter sanctions, " he added. He said French President Nicolas Sarkozy has proposed a freezing of assets of Iran's central bank and an embargo on exports of Iranian oil, a move also being considered by the European Union. "The American Congress has backed this idea and President (Barack) Obama has just signed it into law and we hope that the Europeans, by January 30, take equivalent measures to show our determination," Juppe said. Obama on Saturday signed into law tough new sanctions targeting Iran's central bank and financial sector, in a move that could intensify a brewing Gulf showdown. Tensions have risen in recent days after Iran - which insists its nuclear program is purely for peaceful purposes - test-fired a series of missiles near the key Gulf oil supply route of the Strait of Hormuz. The European Union meanwhile said today that Iran must respond to an EU letter before nuclear talks can resume, and dismissed a call by Tehran for the bloc to set a new date for negotiations. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who represents six world powers in the talks, has yet to receive a response to a letter to Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili in October offering to resume negotiations. "We wrote to them saying in broad terms, if you want to show that your nuclear program is peaceful, then we are happy to listen to that and that will involve discussions," Ashton's spokesman said. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said Tehran was waiting for Ashton to set a date and venue to resume talks with the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/france-says-iran-developing-nuclear-arms/story-e6frf7jx- 1226235972374 (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Montreal Gazette – Canada Iran Warning to U.S. Warship Sends Tensions Soaring Agence France-Presse (AFP) January 3, 2012 TEHRAN - Iran's military on Tuesday warned one of the U.S. navy's biggest aircraft carriers to keep away from the Gulf, in an escalating showdown over Tehran's nuclear drive that could pitch into armed confrontation. "We advise and insist that this warship not return to its former base in the Persian Gulf," said Brigadier General Ataollah Salehi, Iran's armed forces chief. "We don't have the intention of repeating our warning, and we warn only once," he was quoted as saying by the armed forces' official website. The ominous message came just after Iran completed 10 days of naval manoeuvres at the entrance to the Gulf to show it could close the strategic oil shipping channel in the Strait of Hormuz if it felt threatened. In the climax of the war games on Monday, Iran test-fired three missiles - including a new cruise missile - designed to sink warships.

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The aircraft carrier Salehi was referring to was the USS John C. Stennis, one of the US navy's biggest warships. The massive, nuclear-powered vessel transports up to 90 fighter jets and helicopters and is usually escorted by around five destroyers. It is close to finishing its seven-month deployment at sea. The carrier last week passed through the Strait of Hormuz heading east across the Gulf of Oman and through the zone where the Iranian navy was holding its manoeuvres. The US Defence Department called its passage "routine". The potential for an Iran-U.S. conflict sent a shiver through oil markets Tuesday, pushing oil prices up around $2 a barrel. There was no sign of a let-up in the tensions. At the weekend, US President Barack Obama signed into law new sanctions targeting Iran's central bank, which processes most of the Islamic republic's oil export sales. The European Union, which is mulling an embargo on Iranian oil, is expected to announce further sanctions of its own at the end of January. French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said he was convinced Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons, and he wanted to see "stricter sanctions" applied on Iran. The Western sanctions add to four sets of UN sanctions imposed over Iran's nuclear activities. The United States and many Western nations believe Iran is developing an atomic arsenal. Tehran denies that, saying its nuclear programme is exclusively for energy production and medical isotopes. In a statement to underline progress it has made, Iran's atomic energy organisation said on Sunday its scientists had made the country's first nuclear fuel rod from indigenous uranium. Iran's armed forces chief-of-staff, General Hassan Firouzabadi, added to the defiance by saying Tuesday that the Revolutionary Guards, an elite military force apart from the regular defence services, would soon hold its own naval manoeuvres in the Gulf. Foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told reporters that "the foreign forces" present in the Gulf - meaning the U.S. Navy - "are against the security of the region." He said Iran's war games underlined his country's commitment to ensuring "stability and security in the region." Despite the increasingly bellicose stand Iran's military was taking, Tehran suggested it was keeping the door open to negotiating with world powers over its nuclear programme. Iran was waiting for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton to set a date and venue for a meeting to discuss resuming talks that have been stalled for nearly a year, Mehmanparast said. But a spokesman for Ashton shot back immediately that Iran "must first respond" to an October letter from Ashton sent proposing renewed talks, "and then we'll take it from there." The negotiations were being held with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council - Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States, plus non-permanent member Germany. International pressure has already hit Iran's economy by scaring off foreign investors. Iran's currency, the rial, went into a nose dive on Monday, losing 12 percent, after Obama put the new US measures into effect. It recovered on Tuesday when Iran pumped foreign exchange into the market, according to Commerce Minister Mehdi Ghazanfari, quoted by the IRNA news agency.

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Mehmanparast said the volatility "definitely has nothing to with sanctions." "What's happening with the exchange market has its roots elsewhere," such as domestic movements of capital, he said. http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Iran+warning+warship+sends+tensions+soaring/5939191/story.html (Return to Articles and Documents List)

London Guardian –U.K. North Korea Warns the World: No Change in Policy under Kim Jong-un Defence commission sends uncompromising message to 'foolish politicians including the puppet forces in South Korea' By Justin McCurry in Osaka Friday, 30 December 2011 Hopes for a new era of engagement with North Korea have faded after the country's powerful defence commission warned the world not to expect a change in policy under its new leader, Kim Jong-un. The announcement broadcast by the state-run Korean Central News Agency on Friday, effectively dashed hopes that Kim might be ready to engage with South Korea and the wider international community. In comments attributed to the national defence commission, the agency said "foolish politicians" should expect no change in policy and threatened South Korea's conservative president, Lee Myung-bak, with a "sea of fire". "We declare solemnly and confidently that foolish politicians around the world, including the puppet forces in South Korea, that they should not expect any changes from us," the commission said. It reserved its strongest criticism for Lee's refusal to allow ordinary South Koreans to pay their respects to the former North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, who died a fortnight ago. Only a former first lady and the chairwoman of the Hyundai group, whose husbands had strong ties to the North, were permitted to travel to Pyongyang to view Kim's body. Lee, who has ditched the "sunshine policy" of engagement pioneered by Kim Dae-jung in the late 1990s, ended unconditional aid to the North in 2008. Pyongyang, the commission said, would "refuse forever to engage with traitor Lee Myung-bak and his group". It added: "The world shall clearly see how the millions of our soldiers and people, who united firmly round great leader comrade Kim Jong-un to transform sorrow into courage and tears into strength, will achieve the final victory. "The sea of bloody tears from our military and people will follow the puppet regime until the end. The tears will turn into a sea of revengeful fire that burns everything." Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korea expert at Dongguk University in Seoul, said the statement did not necessarily mean that Pyongyang was averse to reform. "It is raising the stakes in case the South wants better relations so Pyongyang can extract greater concessions," Koh told Associated Press, adding that it was "too early to say the North is dashing hopes for reforms". The North frequently issues statements heavy with bellicose rhetoric, but the commission's statement, coming a day after the country named Kim Jong-un its "Supreme Leader," bodes ill for the prospects of multiparty talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons programme. The North is known to have the material needed to build nuclear weapons. Earlier this week a US expert said he believed the regime was one or two years away from mounting a warhead on a medium-range missile.

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The US will attempt to calm fears of regional instability when the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, Kurt Campbell, travels to Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo early next month to discuss the global response to the new regime. The US and South Korean defence chiefs on Thursday reiterated their commitment to stability on the Korean peninsula. The Pentagon said that the two countries "shared the view that peace and stability on the Korean peninsula is our overarching priority and agreed to maintain close co-operation and co-ordination in the weeks and months ahead". Cross-border ties deteriorated dramatically last year after the North shelled Yeonpyeong island, a South Korean territory close to the countries' maritime border in the Yellow Sea. North Korea has also been blamed for the 2010 torpedo attack on the Cheonan, a South Korean naval vessel, in which 46 sailors died. North and South Korea signed a truce, but not a peace treaty after their 1950-53 conflict and remain technically at war, separated by a heavily fortified border. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/30/north-korea-policy-change-kim-jong-un?newsfeed=true (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Chicago Tribune North Korea Says Names Kim Jong-un Top Military Commander By Sung-won Shim, Reuters December 30, 2011 SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea announced on Saturday it has appointed Kim Jong-un, the anointed successor and youngest son of Kim Jong-il, as supreme commander of its 1.2 million-strong military, two days after official mourning for the late leader ended. The North's state news agency KCNA said the appointment was made at a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party on Friday. KCNA said the Political Bureau members "courteously proclaimed the dear comrade Kim Jong-un, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea, assumed the supreme commandership of the Korean People's Army," according to a will made by Kim Jong-il on October 8. It did not elaborate on the will. Since Kim Jong-il's death on December 17, the North's state media have dubbed Kim Jong-un "supreme commander." Some Korea-watchers say it may take Kim Jong-un some months to assume the full panoply of official titles held by his father. But the announcement of the politburo's decision not only meant official approval of his control of one of the world's most powerful armed forces but also indicated the consolidation of his power could be much faster than expected. Footage aired recently by the North's state TV has shown Kim Jong-un, believed to be in his 20s, flanked or followed by the North's top military officers and a coterie of leaders during a series of mourning ceremonies for his father. This signaled a smooth transfer of power to Kim Jong-un, the third generation of his family to rule the unpredictable and reclusive communist state since shortly after World War Two.

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"Faced with the sudden death of his father, Kim Jong-un and his supporters, who appear to be less prepared and insecure, may think they do not have much time in solidifying the young Kim's position," Professor Koh Yu-hwan, an expert on the North's leadership from Seoul's Dongguk University, told Reuters. "The approval (of his supreme leadership of the military) should be one of the fastest ways to allow him the sovereign ruler position," Koh said. This ties in with the North's "military-first" policies on which Kim Jong-il relied heavily. Kim Jong-un was named a four-star general and given the vice-chairmanship of the ruling party's Central Military Commission by his father in 2010. Many Korea-watchers also expect the inexperienced new leader, who had only been groomed for rule since 2009, to lead with the aid of a close coterie around him that includes his uncle and key power-broker, Jang Song-thaek, at least in the early stages of the power transition. Jang, husband of Kim Jong-il's younger sister, Kim Kyong-hui, stood behind his nephew in Wednesday's mass funeral parade, escorting the hearse carrying Kim's body. Despite Pyongyang's determination to project an unbroken line from Kim Jong-un's iron-fisted predecessors, which began with his grandfather, Kim Il-sung, there have been questions among outsiders about his capacity to lead the country. North Korea, whose military is pursuing a nuclear arms program, is technically still at war with the South and is suffering from chronic food shortages. Labeling its opponents "foolish," North Korea warned the South on Friday it would stick to its hardline policies and said Pyongyang would never engage with the current government of South Korea. Reporting by Sung-won Shim; Editing by Paul Tait http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-korea-north-militarytre7bt1au-20111230,0,4539344.story (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Vancouver Sun – Canada South Korea's Lee Calls on North to End Nuclear Activities By Jack Kim, Reuters January 1, 2012 SEOUL, Jan 2 (Reuters) - South Korean President Lee Myung-bak called on North Korea’s new leader to seize the opportunity and return to dialogue, saying he was prepared to offer help to revive the North’s shattered economy if it suspends nuclear activities. Two days after a state funeral for Kim Jong-il, North Korea sounded a bellicose note against the South on Friday, assailing Lee’s government for lacking the decency to mourn the death of a compatriot leader and vowing to continue a hardline policy. The North’s new leader, Kim Jong-un, toured a major army tank division on Sunday in his first public activity as supreme commander, underlining that he would stick to his father’s songun, or military-first, policy. "We have left the window of opportunity open," Lee said in a New Year address broadcast from South Korea’s presidential Blue House. "If North Korea comes forward with sincerity, we will be able to open a new era for the Korean peninsula together.

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"As soon as North Korea suspends nuclear activities in progress, six party talks should be able to resume. Through a six-party agreement, we are prepared to ease the North’s security concern and provide necessary resources to revive its economy." The six party talks, involving the two Koreas, the United States, Japan, Russia and China, have been stalled since 2008 when the North walked away from an aid-for-disarmament deal. Experts who study the North said it was unlikely it would take a dramatically different path under its new ruler, who at around 27 is believed to lack the experience or political support to initiate his own line of policy. In a New Year message issued in its state newspapers that normally sets out policy for the year, the North made no mention of its nuclear programmes which had been the key source of regional security worry during Kim Jong- il’s reign. Under Kim Jong-il’s leadership, the reclusive state twice tested nuclear devices, as well as variety of missiles. Experts say, however, the North still lacks the ability to miniaturise a nuclear bomb to fix atop a missile. The untested new leader is the third member of the Kim dynasty to rule but he had only been groomed for power since 2009. Analysts believe he will rule with the aid of a close coterie that includes his uncle and key power-broker, Jang Song-thaek, at least in the early stages of the leadership transition. North Korea has called for the resumption of the nuclear talks, but Washington and Seoul have been reluctant to rush back to the table, wary of Pyongyang’s potential to engage in protracted negotiations only to walk away from its obligations. Most analysts say the North will never give up its nuclear weapons programme, as it provides the authoritarian state with the ultimate deterrent as well as a bargaining chip in negotiations. Tension has eased over the past year after escalating to its highest level in decades in 2010 when 50 South Koreans were killed in two separate attacks. Lee said the South would retaliate against any aggression by the North but he said he had hoped there would be progress on ending its nuclear programme. http://www.vancouversun.com/news/South+Korea+calls+North+nuclear+activities/5935147/story.html (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Kansas City Star NKorea Holds Rally, Shows Young Kim Meeting Troops The Associated Press (AP) Tuesday, January 3, 2012 Pumping their fists and chanting, tens of thousands of North Koreans packed the snowy main square of the capital Tuesday to pledge their loyalty to new leader Kim Jong Un as the campaign to consolidate his power deepened. State television also aired footage of Kim's recent visit to an elite tank unit with family and historical ties that showed him interacting with ease with soldiers and carrying out inspections much like his father and grandfather did before him. Soldiers cheered and chanted his name as Kim made an inaugural solo trip to provide "on-the-spot guidance" in the first official documentary of the new leader shown on North Korean TV. The succession campaign to install the third-generation Kim as leader has hastened since Kim Jong Il died more than two weeks ago. He led the country for 17 years after the death of North Korea founder Kim Il Sung.

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North Korea's neighbors and the United States are keeping close watch on the younger Kim's rise amid uncertainty about how the country will manage a change of leadership during a time of sensitive negotiations over North Korea's nuclear program. Pyongyang and Washington had been engaged in discussions about offering food aid in exchange for nuclear disarmament when Kim died on Dec. 17. Very little was known about Kim Jong Un, who is in his late 20s, before he was introduced to the world last year when his father made him a four-star general and a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the ruling Workers' Party - a clear signal the young man was his chosen successor. North Korea has emphasized Kim Jong Un's heritage as heir to North Korea's founding fathers, and has underlined his physical resemblance to the late President Kim Il Sung. In the documentary of his visit Sunday to a premier tank unit, he was dressed in a long, dark overcoat similar to the coat his grandfather used to wear. He is shown in an exhibition room lined with black-and-white photos, including an image portraying a young Kim Il Sung. The footage also served to show the confident side of Kim, who chatted easily with soldiers in the documentary shown just days after the ruling party officially proclaimed him supreme commander of the 1.2-million-strong Korean People's Army. Soldiers applauded and cheered as Kim approached, clapping his gloved hands. He leaned in to pull one man close to him to share a few words, leaving the officer in tears. "Kim Jong Un's telling the world that even though he's young, he's in charge and capable of wielding a saber like this father did," said Kim Jin-moo, a North Korea expert at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in South Korea. Even the choice of the tank unit was a nod to history: The Seoul Ryu Kyong Su 105 Guards Tank Division was one of the first North Korean units to enter Seoul in the early days of the 1950-53 Korean War, according to military experts. It was one of Kim Jong Il's favorite bases to visit. In Pyongyang, meanwhile, Premier Choe Yong Rim led a rally in support of Kim and the country's goals for the new year. "We once again keep deep in our minds that the victory of building a powerful and prosperous nation is certain, as long as there is the ... wise leadership of respected comrade Kim Jong Un," senior Workers' Party official Mun Gyong Dok told the crowd, according to Associated Press Television News. It wasn't immediately clear if Kim Jong Un was at the rally. Crowds beat drums and carried large national flags as they paraded across the square. Some held placards calling for loyalty to Kim and for efforts to improve the economy. People pumped their fists in the air while carrying banners that read "indomitable mental strength." Associated Press writers Sam Kim and Foster Klug contributed to this report from Seoul, South Korea. http://www.kansascity.com/2012/01/03/3349928/crowds-rally-in-nkorea-to-back.html (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Indian Express – India Declare N-Doctrine: India to Pak By Shubhajit Roy Friday, December 30, 2011

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New Delhi: India has asked Pakistan to enunciate its nuclear doctrine to ensure “transparency and predictability” to its nuclear policy, official sources said here on Thursday. The demand was made at a meeting of the expert group on nuclear confidence building measures (CBMs) earlier this week. It is learnt that officials from the Pakistan Army were part of the talks on December 27 in Islamabad, which was led by officials from the foreign ministries of the two countries. The talks took place after four years — the last such engagement was in Delhi in 2007. Sources said that in view of the concerns about the safety and security of Pakistan’s nuclear assets, there is a felt need for an official doctrine on their nuclear “command and control”. India has declared its nuclear doctrine. New Delhi, sources said, has told Islamabad that if it demonstrates practical measures on “restraint and responsibility” towards its nuclear assets, it will be considered a “confidence-building measure” (CBM) on the nuclear front. Sources said that Pakistan was also asked to lower the nuclear threshold. http://www.indianexpress.com/news/Declare-n-doctrine--India-to-Pak/893731/ (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Hindustan Times – India Russia Hands Over Nerpa to India: Report Press Trust of India (PTI) Moscow, December 30, 2011 Russia has handed over the much-awaited nuclear-powered attack submarine Nerpa to India on a 10-year lease, boosting the Indian navy's fire-power. The Akula-II class Nerpa nuclear submarine had recently finished sea trials. "The signing ceremony happened yesterday at the Bolshoi Kamen ship building facility in the (Far East) Primorye region where the Nerpa is now based," ITAR-TASS news agency quoted a senior Russian navy official as saying. The deal for the submarine, which is being transferred on a 10-year lease, was worth $920 million. The report said an Indian crew would sail the Akula II class craft to its home base at the end of January. "All of the naval tests and performance checks have been completed," the Russian navy official said. The submarine, capable of remaining underwater for months, will be rechristened as 'INS Chakra' and it would be for the first time in more than two decades that the Indian navy would have a nuclear attack submarine. When Russia makes the delivery, it will make India only the sixth operator of nuclear submarines in the world. The submarine deal had figured during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Russia earlier this month. The Nerpa, an Akula II-class attack submarine, had originally been scheduled for delivery in 2008 but an accident during sea trials on November 8 that year had forced the Russian authorities to put it on hold. Twenty people, mostly civilians, had been killed when a fire-suppressant gas was released on the Nerpa during shakedown trials, in one of Russia's worst naval accidents. The Akula-II class submarines are equipped with 28 nuclear-capable cruise missiles with a striking range of 3,000 km. The Indian version is reportedly expected to be armed with the 300-km Club nuclear-capable missiles. India had funded the completion of the Nerpa nuclear submarine at Amur Shipyard before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/Europe/Russia-hands-over-Nerpa-to-India-Report/Article1- 789257.aspx

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The Nation – Pakistan Pakistan, India Swap Lists of Nuclear Sites By Our Staff Reporter January 02, 2012 ISLAMABAD - Pakistan and India Sunday exchanged lists of their respective nuclear installations and facilities as well as lists of prisoners in each other’s custody, as required under bilateral agreements between the two South Asian nuclear neighbours. Senior officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Indian High Commission exchanged the respective lists here at the Foreign Office. The exchange of the two lists is a routine annual exercise simultaneously carried between Islamabad and New Delhi on January 1 and July 1 every year. The lists related to respective nuclear installations and facilities are exchanged in accordance with Article-II of the Agreement on Prohibition of Attacks against Nuclear installations and facilities between Pakistan and India of 31 December, 1988. During the exchange, both sides also inform of nuclear installations and facilities that are changed and relocated during the year. While lists of prisoners in each other’s custody are exchanged under the agreement on Consular Access signed between the two countries on May 21 2008. This time, a list of prisoners jailed was also exchanged in line with the agreement that provides counsellor to the person jailed in the neighbouring country within 90 days of arrest. According to diplomatic sources, India has claimed that around 350 Pakistani prisoners are jailed in Indian jails currently, while 254 Pakistanis are present in jails in Indian-held Kashmir. Pakistan and India, which resumed their peace process early last year, held a series of meetings of their respective working groups to normalise their relations. The last meeting of the working group on Conventional and Nuclear CBMs was held here on December 26-27. Both sides discussed a number of proposals, which would be submitted to the respective foreign secretaries for further action. http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/national/02-Jan-2012/pakistan-india- swap-lists-of-nuclear-sites (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Times of India – India India to Achieve N-Arm Triad in February Tamil News Network (TNN) January 2, 2012 NEW DELHI: India will take a big step towards achieving a credible nuclear weapon triad in February when its first indigenous nuclear submarine INS Arihant begins sea trials off Visakhapatnam. Top defence ministry sources say the "sea-acceptance trials'' (SATS) of INS Arihant are slated to begin "towards end-February'' after the completion of its ongoing harbour-acceptance trials (HATS). "It will take at least six months of extensive SATS and missile trials before the boat is ready for commissioning into Navy,'' said a source. With INS Arihant's induction, India for the first time will brandish the most effective third leg of the nuclear triad - the ability to fire nukes from land, air and sea. The first two legs revolve around the Agni family of ballistic missiles

Issue No. 968, 03 January 2012 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530 and fighters like Sukhoi-30MKIs and Mirage-2000s jury-rigged to deliver nuclear warheads. Only the Big-5 has nuclear triads till now, with a total of over 140 nuclear-powered submarines. America leads the pack with 71, followed by Russia with about 40, while China, the UK and France have around 10-12 each. India did get delivery of INS Chakra, the rechristened Akula-II nuclear-powered submarine 'K-152 Nerpa', from Russia on a 10-year lease last week. But while it will bolster the country's underwater firepower, it's not armed with nuclear-tipped missiles due to international treatises. India's nuclear triad will be in place, as Navy chief Admiral Nirmal Verma has declared, once INS Arihant is out at sea on "deterrent patrols''. It has been a long journey for INS Arihant since it was "launched'' at Vizag in July, 2009, with PM Manmohan Singh himself in attendance. Each and every sub-system was checked and re-checked, along with high-pressure steam trials of all the pipelines, before the miniature 83 MW pressurized light-water reactor, fitted in a containment vessel on board the over 6,000-tonne INS Arihant, went "critical'' last year, said sources. "HATS followed thereafter. Now, things are on track for SATS to begin in end-February,'' said the source. Simultaneously, fabrication work on the three follow-on SSBNs (nuclear-powered submarines armed with nuclear ballistic missiles), dubbed S-2, S-3 and S-4, is in full swing under the over Rs 30,000-crore advanced technology vessel programme. The second SSBN after INS Arihant is to be named INS Aridhaman, both of which loosely mean "potent destroyer of enemies''. They are to be armed first with the 750-km K-15 and at a later stage with the under-development 3,500-km K-4 SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles). INS Arihant has four silos on its hump to carry either 12 K-15s or four K-4s. Navy wants to have three SSBNs and six SSNs (nuclear-powered attack submarines) in the long term, as reported by TOI earlier. The force is grappling with a depleting conventional underwater arm, down to only 14 ageing diesel-electric submarines. Nuclear-powered submarines can silently stay underwater for months at end, unlike conventional ones that have to surface every few days to get oxygen to recharge their batteries. India with a clear "no-first use'' nuclear doctrine needs survivable second-strike capability riding on SSBNs to ensure credible deterrence. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-to-achieve-N-arm-triad-in-Feb/articleshow/11332636.cms (Return to Articles and Documents List)

International Business Times – U.S. Russia Submerges Nuclear Submarine to Douse Blaze By Guy Faulconbridge, Reuters December 29, 2011 Russia tried to submerge a burning nuclear submarine at a navy shipyard on Thursday after battling for hours with helicopters and tug boats to bring the raging blaze under control. There was no radiation leak, authorities said. Television pictures showed a giant plume of smoke above the yard in the Murmansk region of northern Russia as over 100 firemen struggled to douse flames which witnesses said rose 10 meters (30 feet) above the stricken vessel. Emergency workers said efforts to partially sink the submarine at the dock had failed to fully extinguish the fire. A defense ministry spokesman quoted by state news agency RIA said the blaze, which began at 1220 GMT (7:20 a.m.), was under control more than eight hours later.

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Russia said the nuclear reactor had been shut down and all weapons had been removed from the 167-metre (550 feet) Yekaterinburg, which launched an intercontinental ballistic missile from the Barents Sea at a firing range thousands of miles away in Kamchatka as recently as July. "Radiation levels are normal," a spokeswoman for the emergencies ministry said. "No one was injured." After hours of trying to put out the flames, officials decided to partially submerge the hull of the 18,200-tonne submarine at the Roslyakovo dock, one of the main dockyards of Russia's northern fleet 1,500 km (900 miles) north of Moscow. Local media reports were vague, but the blaze was believed to have started when wooden scaffolding caught fire during welding repairs to the submarine, which had been hoisted into a dry dock. The submarine can carry 16 ballistic missiles, each with four warheads. Its nuclear reactor was not damaged in the fire and Russian navy submarine reactors are built to withstand enormous shocks and high temperatures. "The reactor has been shut down and does not pose any danger," Interfax news agency quoted a source at navy headquarters as saying. Russia's worst post-Soviet submarine disaster occurred in August 2000 when the Kursk nuclear submarine sank in the Barents Sea killing all 118 crewmen aboard. http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/274301/20111229/russia-submerge-s-nuclear-submarine-douse-blaze.htm (Return to Articles and Documents List)

RIA Novosti – Russian Information Agency Repairs of Fire-Damaged Nuclear Sub to Take at Least One Year 31 December 2011 Repairs of the Yekaterinburg nuclear sub, damaged by fire while in dry dock near Murmansk, will take no less than a year, a spokesman for the Zvezdochka shipyard in Severodvinsk said. The outer hull of the Yekaterinburg, a Delta-class nuclear submarine, caught fire on Thursday during repairs when fuel and lubricants were set ablaze by welding in the system's nose section. Fire safety violations during routine maintenance works are cited as the most likely cause. The submarine's hydro acoustic system was disabled by the fire and possibly will have to be replaced before it is brought back into service. "According to our specialists, the repair terms will be known as soon as the damage is assessed and when it becomes clear whether a new hydro acoustic complex is needed for the sub," Zvezdochka spokesman Yevgeny Gladyshev said. "According to our first assessments, repairs may take as long as one year." It is yet unclear at what facility the sub will be repaired. ARKHANGELSK, December 31 (RIA Novosti) http://www.en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20111231/170571318.html?id= (Return to Articles and Documents List)

BarentsObserver – Norway Submarine’s Torpedo Compartment Was on Fire January 03, 2012

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Revealing photos of the nuclear powered submarine “Yekaterinburg” from before and during last week’s fire clearly indicate that the flames come from inside the torpedo-compartment. A photo taken of “Yekaterinburg” in the floating dock in Roslyakova before the fire started on December 29th shows a large cut in the hull on the port side of the submarine. The hull is near the front bow, the part where the torpedo compartment is located. A second photo, posted anonymously on blogger51, shows that the massive flames are coming out from the same cut in the hull. Blogger51 is a portal in Murmansk well known for posting information you normally don’t find in other Russian media. BarentsObserver has got permission from Blogger51 to re-post the images. A third photo, taken after the fire was finally extinguished after 20 hours, shows that not much of the acoustic rubber coating on the surface of the submarine hull is damaged by the fire. The images contradict earlier statements that the fire stroked the outer hull. Northern fleet spokesman Capt. 1st rank Vadim Serga told RIA Novosti that the wooden scaffolding around the submarine caught fire, which spread to the submarine’s outer hull. The blogger that has posted the images writes: …this was shocking, I earlier incorrectly suggested that the markings on the front end came from an external fire, but here it is clear that the fairing was damaged from inside. Concerning the rubber coating, on the junction on the right side are not as many burned fragments of rubber coating, as dismantled ones. The fire and the reasons for the fire are a hot topic in social media like Facebook, Vkontakte and Twitter in the Murmansk region. The question many ask is; why was there a large cut in the hull of the submarine’s torpedo compartment? What combustible material inside the hull made such large flames over such long period and why was it so difficult to extinguish the fire? Submarine experts BarentsObserver has showed the photos to, say the investigators appointed to look into the cause of the fire have many good questions to answers. As BarentsObserver reported on Monday, President Dmitri Medvedev has instructed Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin to conduct a thorough investigation to find good answers to what happened with “Yekaterinburg” last Thursday. Combined report Thomas Nilsen and Trude Pettersen http://www.barentsobserver.com/submarines-torpedo-compartment-was-on-fire.5003663-58932.html (Return to Articles and Documents List)

RIA Novosti – Russian Information Agency OPINION/Analysis Bulava Approved for Service 28 December 2011 By RIA Novosti military commentator Konstantin Bogdanov The testing of the Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is completed and the missile will now be put into operational service, President Dmitry Medvedev said. The convoluted history of the project, which has been alternately criticized and praised, is finally reaching its intended destination. Declared fit for service “Our industry has proven that it can create new modern and highly efficient types of strategic weapons. One of them is the Bulava missile, and now that the tests have been completed, it will be put into operational service,”

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Medvedev said on Tuesday at a ceremony with officers receiving promotion to higher command positions and top military ranks. On December 23, the strategic submarine Yury Dolgoruky launched two Bulava missiles. The Defense Ministry said that the launch was successful, and the official announcement is expected within days. The military loves to announce the completion of projects in time for national holidays, as a kind of New Year’s present. Many of the previous tests were unsuccessful, and the project has been steeped in intrigue, scandal, and investigation. Stringent measures of control had to be taken at the assembly stage. It was even rumored that the project is what caused the unique Norwegian spiral anomaly in November 2009, a blue beam of light with a grayish spiral in the sky over Norway. But now the president, who is also the Supreme Commander, has said the tests are over and the missile will be put into service. Since the project was launched in the late 1990s, the life of the rocket has been rich enough to write a lengthy memoir. Not a bad start at all I intend to dispel the popular conception of the Bulava as a white elephant – that is, something big, expensive, and useless. Only six of the 18 full-scale Bulava trials failed, which is a good result for a missile that was created from scratch during a period of economic and financial transition by a group of designers who had never made sea-launched missiles before. The tests of the Soviet Union’s first solid-fuel sea-launched missile, the R-39 Rif, were lengthy and agonizing, with more than a half of the 17 trials failing dismally. The first successful launch of the R-39 was registered only during the sixth trial. Bulava’s first two trials were a success, and it failed only during its third trial. Two of the subsequent 13 trial launches of the R-39 missile from a submarine also failed, but the missile was improved and ultimately put into service. The R-29RMU Sineva missile, the liquid-fuel predecessor of the Bulava, failed in 11 out of its 18 trials. In short, compared to other missiles that fared worse even though they were created in more favorable conditions, the Bulava does not deserve such sharp criticism. The two drawbacks of the Bulava project were that it was conceived in times of openness and that its failures occurred in two groups of three failures each. Two trials after the first group of three failures were declared “partially successful,” because the rocket did well, though the warheads’ guidance system malfunctioned. Formally, there were five failures, one successful launch, and then three more failures. On the surface, these sarcastic and critical remarks should be no surprise. Intrigue The idea for the R-30 3M30 Bulava missile (RSM-56 in international treaties, NATO call name: SS-NX-30) was suggested rather unexpectedly. In the 1990s, Russia’s strategic nuclear forces were living within their means, whereas all the other armed services were living off of leftovers. Russia inherited from the Soviet Union a disparate assortment of seven ground-based (more if we count modifications) and seven sea-launched missile systems, each produced by a different group of enterprises that heavily depended on plants located in Ukraine. Unable to ensure their maintenance, Moscow decided to de-commission obsolete missiles along with their surface ships and submarines, replacing them with two types of standard solid-fuel missiles for the army and for submarines.

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The Topol missile, which was designed at the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology (MITT), won the competition among ground-based missiles. The R-39UTTH Bark (NATO reporting name: SS-N-28), which is based on the R-39 missile of the Makeyev State Rocket Center, was leading the race among sea-launched contenders. But a critical shortage of funds and three failures in the first three launches put an end to the Bark project in 1998. MITT won the new tender with the idea for what is now known as the Bulava missile. Military historians like to speculate about the Bark project – which makes sense. Indeed, one might suspect a degree of lobbying and favoritism when a system that is nearly ready is dropped in favor of a vague idea proposed by a designer who had never created sea-launched missiles before. To this day, no one knows exactly what happened in the corridors of power concerning that project in 1998. Bark’s advocates say that MITT promised to produce a sea-launched missile adjusted to the standards of ground- based systems, which would have saved funds. MITT’s designer general, Yury Solomonov, denies this rumor but admits that the main components of the Bulava missile are almost the same as those of the ground-based RS-24 Yars system. We may learn the truth only when the projects’ materials are declassified or their participants publish their memoirs. The sea leg of the nuclear triad We are witnessing a dramatic shift in the nuclear triad: the Bulava missile will serve as the triad’s foundation until its ground-based component is modernized. The first Yars missiles (NATO reporting name: SS-X-29) have been delivered to Russia’s Strategic Missile Force, and a new liquid-fuel missile is expected by 2020, although the project is only at the stage of preparing technical requirements. At the same time, 80% of Russia’s warheads are mounted on obsolete silo-based missiles, which are to be de-commissioned by 2017-2020, although earlier plans provided for extending the warranty service for some of them until 2025. As a result, old warheads are scrapped before new ones are put into service. In this situation Bulava seems to be the only form of strategic insurance. Overall, sea-launched strategic systems will be a critically important nuclear deterrence until the Strategic Missile Force is fully modernized. The views expressed in this article are the author’s and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti. http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20111228/170540223.html (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Xinhua News – China OPINION/In-Depth Iran's Nuclear Issue Escalates, but Unlikely into Conflict December 29, 2011 BEIJING, Dec. 29 (Xinhua) -- Iran's nuclear issue has escalated again recently with the West mulling sanctions on Iran's Central Bank and its crude exports, but the seeming saber-rattling on the part of both sides is unlikely to evolve into an imminent conflict. On Dec. 14, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a massive defense bill, which requests new sanctions on Iran, targeting foreign financial institutions that do business with the Islamic republic's central bank. Iran's First Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi said Tuesday that if the exports of Iran's oil were hit by sanctioned from the West, "not a drop of oil" would pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

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Iran's Navy Chief Admiral Habibollah Sayari also said Wednesday that Iran would find it "really easy" to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil transit channel. The comments drew a quick response from the United States. A spokeswoman from the Bahrain-based U.S. Navy 5th Fleet said the Navy is "always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation." Despite the latest flare-up of tensions, there is little possibility that Iran and the U.S. would rush headlong into war, in view of the current circumstances. U.S. President Barack Obama, with his re-election bid next year on his mind, would try to avoid any war that could become controversial. Iran, on the other hand, is becoming more adept at playing a game of brinkmanship. While sticking to its tough stance on its nuclear program, Tehran has apparently been ready to compromise a bit at the last minute, leaving the door open for further negotiations. It has been almost 10 years since Iran's nuclear issue surfaced in 2003, but neither side has ever crossed the red lines. Iran has maintained its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and has never announced plans to develop nuclear weapons. The West, for its part, has not imposed a complete embargo on Iran's crude exports, to say nothing of launching strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. However, intelligence war, cyber war and economic war between the two sides have never subsided. In December, Iran announced that it captured a U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel drone, which shed some light on these "secret warfares" between Iran and the West. Iran's adherence to its nuclear program not only serves the purpose of developing new energy resources but is also in line with its strategic pursuit of expanding its influence in the region. Because of ideological differences and complex ethnic and religious factors, Iran's move is strongly opposed by the West and Israel who deem it a serious threat to them. Gulf Arab states which eye economic and military integration as a first step toward forming a union have also been wary of Iran's influence in the region. In a statement issued at the end of their annual summit on Dec. 20, the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council called on Iran to stop meddling in the internal affairs of the group members. "Stop these policies and practices... and stop interfering in the internal affairs" of Gulf nations, it said, expressing concern over Tehran's attempts to "instigate sectarian strife." On Dec. 5, the former Saudi intelligence chief, Prince Turki al-Faisal, said Saudi Arabia may consider acquiring nuclear weapons to match regional rivals Israel and Iran. On Dec. 24, Iran began a 10-day naval drill in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has threatened to block if the West slaps sanctions on its oil exports. On Dec. 23, the Iranian government renewed an earlier invitation to the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), asking nuclear inspectors to visit Iran as soon as possible. The invitation was apparently designed to lessen the impact of a November IAEA report on Iran's nuclear activities. The IAEA report suggested for the first time that Iran was using the cover of a peaceful nuclear program to produce atomic weaponry, though the U.N. nuclear watchdog did not conclude that Tehran is currently attempting to develop a nuclear weapon.

Issue No. 968, 03 January 2012 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

As always, Iran dismissed the findings in the IAEA report as fabrication by Western countries, and insisted the country's nuclear activities were purely for peaceful purposes. Undoubtedly, Iran is trying to allay the international community's suspicions and worries about its nuclear program. However, a few stop-gap measures would help much in efforts to resolve this lingering, hot-button issue. Would war become a reality one day? Some people have cried wolf from time to time in the past. However, to prevent the worst-case scenario from occurring, greater sincerity and flexibility are required from all parties concerned. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/indepth/2011-12/29/c_131334180.htm (Return to Articles and Documents List)

New York Times OPINION/Editorial December 30, 2011 Iran and the Strait Page – A22 Iran’s threat to shut the Strait of Hormuz — one-fifth of the world’s oil trade passes through there — if the United States and Europe press ahead with new sanctions is unacceptable. The Obama administration is right to signal, in deliberately moderated ways, that Washington will not back off if Tehran ever attempts to carry it out. A show of American naval force kept the strait open to oil tankers during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. A Fifth Fleet spokeswoman usefully reminded Iran this week that the Navy always stands “ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation.” Oil markets reacted calmly, at least for now, with no price spikes. Whether or not Tehran is bluffing (or trying to drive up oil prices), Washington will not back down and Europe should not. More than five years after the United Nations Security Council ordered it to stop, Iran is still enriching uranium and mastering other technologies that would allow it to build a nuclear weapon. According to the latest report from United Nations inspectors, Iran has created computer models of nuclear explosions, conducted experiments on nuclear triggers and completed advanced research on a warhead that could be delivered by a medium-range missile. Eighteen months have passed since the last round of Security Council sanctions. American calls to tighten the economic screws by, for example, concentrating on Iran’s petrochemical industry have been stymied by Russia and China. Europe, however, has been increasingly willing to impose its own investment restrictions. And Iran’s latest threat is a clear sign of its growing economic desperation. The new sanctions Tehran hopes to fend off are a United States law that would penalize foreign companies that do business with Iran’s central bank — which they must do to buy Iranian oil — and a tough new round of punishments, possibly including an oil embargo, now being considered by the European Union. We strongly support applying maximum economic pressure to constrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions. But we think Washington penalizing foreign companies for engaging in otherwise lawful commerce with Iran is not the right way to go about it and could backfire, alienating European allies at a time when they are preparing to impose their own stronger sanctions. President Obama can limit the damage by making full use of a waiver, which allows him to block the penalties if they would threaten national security or cause oil prices to soar. Europe must also find the best way to increase pressure on Iran’s government. We are not sure how a full-scale oil embargo would affect the global economy, but, before proceeding, the European Union should carefully weigh the consequences. Meanwhile, it should expand its list of targeted Iranian companies, officials and government

Issue No. 968, 03 January 2012 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530 entities. And both Europe and Washington should mount a new push on Russia and China to agree to toughened United Nations sanctions. Tehran’s latest threat to block global oil shipping should leave no doubt about its recklessness and its contempt for international law. This is not a government any country should want to see acquire nuclear weapons. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/30/opinion/iran-and-the-strait.html?_r=1 (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Chicago Tribune OPINION/Analysis Analysis: N.Korea's Missile-Maker Seen in Key Role in New Regime By Raju Gopalakrishnan, Reuters Friday, December 30, 2011 SINGAPORE (Reuters) - During the funeral ceremonies for North Korean leader Kim Jong-il this week, the man in charge of the isolated state's missile program and possibly its nuclear plans, paid a quiet visit to the mausoleum where the body lay in state. Little is known about elderly and silver-haired Ju Kyu-chang, but he appears to be a key member of the North Korean team developing nuclear weapons. The European Union has named the 73-year-old, who is believed to have trained as a metal alloy specialist and studied in Russia, as one of the individual North Koreans to attract sanctions slapped on the rogue communist state. He was given two important posts in the regime in recent years, which analysts say were part of Kim Jong-il's moves after he suffered a stroke to set a succession plan in place and ensure safe custody of the nuclear weapons. "I would equate Ju with General Leslie Groves, who headed the U.S. Manhattan Project that produced atomic bombs during World War Two," said Larry Niksch, who has tracked North Korea for the non-partisan U.S. Congressional Research Service for 43 years. "Ju runs the day-to-day programs to develop missiles and probably nuclear weapons." Ju was ranked 20th on the list of the national funeral committee for Kim Jong-il, an indicator of his stature. Just above him in 19th position was Jang Song-thaek, the uncle of new leader Kim Jong-un and the man seen as the power behind the throne. According to the European Union, Ju had oversight of the two tests of North Korea's intermediate-range Taepodong-2 ballistic missiles in 2006 and 2009. Less is known about his connection to the development of nuclear weapons. But the International Crisis Group (ICG) said in a 2009 report on North Korea that Ju "is believed to be in charge of the nuclear weapons development program." It said Ju's 2009 promotion to the National Defense Commission (NDC), the supreme leadership council, was probably linked to a move to put him in charge of an independent entity with custody of North Korea's nuclear bombs when they were developed. Daniel Pinkston, one of the authors of the ICG report, told Reuters there was no information on whether the new "command and control" body for nuclear weapons had been set up.

Issue No. 968, 03 January 2012 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

But he said of Ju: "He is close to the regime leadership because of his political loyalty to the Kim family and the party, in addition to his technical expertise regarding the SLV (space launch vehicle) and satellite programs and the nuclear weapons program." MACHINE-BUILDING Officially, Ju is director of the oddly named Korean Workers' Party Machine-Building Industry Department, which he has been associated with since the 1960s. But his power stems from the NDC post and also his being named to the Workers' Party Central Military Commission in 2010. He accompanied Kim Jong-il on a trip to Russia, according to media reports. "Ju is in charge of managing the North's ballistic missiles," said Cho Min, at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul. "Some people think he may be involved in the North's nuclear programs, but I am less confident about that. But on the other hand, ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons are inseparable." Analysts say Kim Jong-un will be in no hurry to make any changes and that Ju should remain in place for some time. "The fact that he is still there means his father (Kim Jong-il) gave him the seal of approval as others considered threats or not loyal enough were replaced or retired over the past year or two," said Ralph Cossa, president of the U.S. think tank Pacific Forum CSIS. "Not sure where he fits in the pecking order but he is clearly among the top rung." But Ju is likely to have not much more than a bit part in any decision on the actual deployment of missiles or nuclear weapons. Kim Jong-un and the close coterie around him, including his uncle Jang, aunt Kim Kyong-hui and military chief Ri Yong-ho, are likely to call the shots. Kim Jong-un has already been named the supreme commander of the military, and "should have ultimate command and control of the nuclear arsenal," said the ICG's Pinkston. "I believe that is the case." The unpredictable state, which threatened on Friday to turn arch rival South Korea into "a sea of revengeful fire," has rattled the region with two nuclear tests in the past five years and its missile program. It is believed to have about 700 short-range Scud-type missiles and about 320 medium-range Nodongs. It is said to have amassed enough plutonium for about half a dozen bombs but is now believed to be working on producing highly enriched uranium, the other kind of fissile material used in nuclear bombs. Niksch, the U.S. expert, says the North probably would need as little as one to two years to miniaturize and mount a nuclear warhead atop its medium-range Nodong missile once it has produced enough highly enriched uranium. Additional reporting by Jim Wolf in WASHINGTON and Jack Kim in SEOUL; Editing by Paul Tait http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-korea-north-missilemakertre7bt0ap-20111230,0,5459053.story (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Washington Post OPINION/Commentary Military Action Isn’t the Only Solution to Iran By William H. Luers and Thomas R. Pickering December 30, 2011

Issue No. 968, 03 January 2012 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

“Since wars begin in the minds of men, it is in the minds of men that the defenses of peace must be constructed.” — Archibald MacLeish, 1945, preamble to the Constitution of UNESCO The American people hear from government officials and presidential candidates nearly every day about military action against Iran. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta recently said that the United States and Israel would not allow Iran to get a bomb. Are these words standard fare for an election year? A strategy to restrain Israel from unilateral action? Or do these threats signify that war is in the “minds of men”? Conservative ideologues taste the possibility that a leader whom they might influence may return to the White House. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich has already pledged to appoint John Bolton, a neoconservative superstar, as his secretary of state. Is it surprising that Gingrich, who has said he would rather plan a joint operation with Israel against Iran than force the Israelis to go it alone, is the candidate with the strongest commitment to military action? Have we forgotten what Iraq and the United States have been through since 2002? Were it not for that ill- begotten war, thousands of Americans (and Iraqis) might still be living. America would be a trillion dollars richer and still be the proud, respected and economically healthy nation the world had known. The defenses of peace were built in many of America’s most illustrious minds since World War II — but only after those minds had been humbled by the ravages wrought by their earlier decisions. Robert McNamara and McGeorge Bundy recognized, after the fact, the disasters caused by their certitude in Americanizing the Vietnam War. Super Cold Warrior Dean Acheson turned out to be the most influential member of Lyndon Johnson’s “Wise Men” to urge him to stop the failed war in Vietnam. More recently, dozens in leadership positions at the start of the Iraq war realized too late the folly of that decision and the incompetence of its execution. Asked in the mid-1950s whether he would consider strikes against the Soviet Union to preempt its nuclear weapons program, Dwight D. Eisenhower, our president most expert on the limits of military power, replied: “A preventive war, to my mind, is an impossibility today. How could you have one, if one of its features would be several cities lying in ruins, where many, many thousands of people would be dead and injured and mangled? . . . That isn’t preventive war; that is war.” Military action is becoming the seemingly fail-safe solution for the United States to deal with real and imagined security problems. The uncertain and intellectually demanding ways of diplomacy are seen as “unmanly” and tedious — likely to involve compromise or even “appeasement.” President Obama made efforts to engage Iranian leaders his first year in office but, when rebuffed, turned in a different direction. Since then, our most effective diplomacy regarding Iran has been to muster support worldwide for an unprecedented series of sanctions and ostracization. Iran presents a serious threat to U.S. and regional security, one that would grow immensely if its nuclear program produces weapons. The United States must set out on a relentless search for a better way to get at this seemingly unknowable regional power. Without that patient search for different ways to deal with Tehran, Washington will be stuck with a policy that will not change Iran’s practices or its regime and could lead to a catastrophic war. We and our colleagues in the Iran Project — an initiative of ours that has suggested diplomatic strategies and encouraged direct U.S.-Iran discussions for nearly a decade — have for three years proposed ways to contain Iran’s nuclear program, wall it off from developing weapons and engage Iran in a dialogue on other regional issues. It is not too late. History teaches that engagement and diplomacy pay dividends that military threats do not. Deployment of military force can bring the immediate illusion of “success” but always results in unforeseen consequences and collateral damage that complicate further the achievement of America’s main objectives. Deploying diplomats with a strategy while maintaining some pressure on Iran will lower Tehran’s urgency to build a bomb and reduce the danger of conflict.

Issue No. 968, 03 January 2012 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

The slow, elusive diplomatic process to achieve U.S. objectives does not provide the sound-bite satisfaction of military threats or action. Multiple, creative efforts to engage Iran’s leaders and provide a dignified exit from the corner in which the world community has placed them could achieve more durable solutions at a far lower cost. It is a lesson that those urging military action against Iran have failed to learn. Clearly, the Iraq war did not build “the defenses of peace” in their minds. And such efforts must truly fail before more forceful action is made in a genuinely multilateral action, endorsed by the U.N. Security Council. Acheson, that brilliant strategist and close friend of Archibald MacLeish, criticized advocates of “massive retaliation” in the 1950s. It would be mad, he said, to “embrace disaster in order to escape anxiety.” Greater knowledge and closer contact with an enemy reduce anxiety and reveal surer ways to avoid disaster. William Luers served as U.S. ambassador to Czechoslovakia from 1983 to 1986 and as president of the United Nations Association from 1999 to 2009. Thomas Pickering, undersecretary of state for political affairs in the Clinton administration, has served as U.S. ambassador to Russia, Israel, Jordan and the United Nations. http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/military-action-isnt-the-only-solution-to- iran/2011/12/29/gIQA69sNRP_story.html (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Manila Standard Today – Philippines OPINION/Backbencher North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons By Rod P. Kapunan December 31, 2011 Western media propaganda takes the passing of North of Korea’s President Kim Jong-Il as something that “threatens to trigger a heightened state of uncertainty in Asia.” As usual they continue to drumbeat anxiety about the fluidity of power by the successor-son Kim Jong-Un. Adding “volatility” is their self-generated fear about the nuclear weapons possessed by the reclusive Stalinist state. Aside from having a standing army of 1.1 million, North Korea has an estimated stockpile of 6 to 8 nuclear warheads its BM25 Musudan rockets could deliver at a range of 4,000 km. North Korea’s military doctrine, no doubt, goes beyond the strategy of self-defense, but one designed to instill into the minds of potential aggressors the unbearable cost they will pay for any miscalculated military adventurism. Its dependence on its nuclear weapons has all the more become necessary after the success of the two nuclear tests it conducted, and by the degree of accuracy of its delivery system after successfully testing the Taepodong I and Taepodong II medium range ballistic missiles (MRBM). Nobody wants to sow fear to the tense situation or wish to allow ourselves to fall unwittingly into the propaganda of the criminal state. Rather, our intention is to bring to a realistic consciousness that the only security every state could rely upon is to come out with a weapon that could serve as its ultimate deterrence. Nothing could speak of this grotesque equation than the evolution of a balance of terror consequent to the possession by other states of their own nuclear weapons. Maybe their stockpile of the arsenal is not enough to obliterate countries that might commit the mistake of attacking them, but definitely it will be one that will engender fear of annihilation. Looking back, it was hubris in taunting its monopoly of the atom bomb, and the threat of nuclear attack by the US to countries in the “Iron Curtain” that compelled the Soviet Union to produce its own bomb. Its possession and subsequent development of delivery system radically modified the old concept of “balance of power” to that of grisly “balance of terror” where deterrence became its best assurance for peace. Some speculate that Mao Zedong would not have ventured to produce his own nuclear device had General Douglas MacArthur not threatened to cross the Yalu River to bomb its industrial sites in Manchuria during the

Issue No. 968, 03 January 2012 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

Korean War. That threat sank in deep into their military’s orientation when on September 12, 1954 the US Joint Chiefs of Staff openly recommended the use of nuclear bomb against China should it invade Formosa. The withdrawal of Soviet advisers involved in the project to produce an atom bomb for China and the suspension in the delivery of the equipment for the enrichment of the nuclear materials after the Sino-Soviet split did not forestall China’s determination to produce its own atom bomb. Rather, the ideological rift only bolstered its determination; that having it is its only option to counter the looming threat of the US in such flashpoints as Korea and Taiwan. Thus, on October 16, 1965 China tested its first atomic bomb at Lop Nor in Xinjiang Province. By 1980, it was already producing its own intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) designated as the DF series. As a nuclear power capable of delivering a deadly wallop to countries that would threaten its security and survival, the threat of nuclear attack from the US soon subsided. The imperialists then learned to respect China. That also ended the policy of containing the so-called “Bamboo Curtain.” To counter China’s nuclear monopoly in Asia, the US resorted to a new strategy of sowing uneasiness to pave the way for a regional nuclear arms race. It had to spread the scare that China’s emergence as a nuclear power poses a direct threat to India. Effectively, it made that nonaligned state amenable to US offer to help it develop its own nuclear weapons. The border dispute in Ladakh, Kashmir that erupted into a brief war with China in October 1962 added resonance to that. Finally, on May 28, 1974 India detonated its first atom bomb codenamed “Smiling Buddha.” It also built its own ICMBs known the Surya and Agni series which have a range of 8,000 to 12,000 km. That futile attempt to encircle China with nuclear-tipped missiles did not bode well to Pakistan’s own security. Since their partition, India and Pakistan fought three wars, in 1947, 1965, and 1971 of which East Pakistan seceded to become the new state of Bangladesh. Such heightened suspicion of China assisting Pakistan to develop its own nuclear weapon followed the same insidious pattern employed by the US in helping India develop its own deadly mushroom cloud. With a nuclear-armed Pakistan as border-neighbor, India has to redefine the direction of its nuclear policy. Nonetheless, the emergence of the two countries in the Indian subcontinent as members of the nuclear club created a stalemate that since then no major conflict has erupted between the two. In fact, after detonating its first atom bomb on May 28, 1998, Pakistan no sooner was able to catch up the nuclear arms race. It now has an estimated 100 to 110 nuclear warheads higher than that of India which is reported to have from 80 to 100 warheads. It has also developed its own MRBM called Shaheen II capable of hitting any major city in the subcontinent. Western intelligence insists that Pakistan was able to develop its own nuclear device by exchanging technical knowhow. The US points to North Korea for supplying Pakistan the technology and spare parts to build MRBM, and in exchange Pakistan assisted North Korea develop its own atom bomb. North Korea’s eagerness to develop its own bomb would not have turned to one of obsession had it not for the economic embargo, clampdown on financial credits from international financial institutions, and efforts to isolate it from the international community. In fact, acquiring the bomb has become imperative after the events in Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, and lately in Libya where the US and its NATO allies unleashed their ferocious savagery in leveling to the ground those countries, in looting their national treasures and putting on trial their leaders as war criminals. The same act of gangsterism now looms over Syria and Iran. For North Korea now to abandon its nuclear weapons program would be tantamount to an open invitation for aggression. The US should blame itself for the proliferation of nuclear weapons in Asia. Although its previous monopoly of the bomb coupled by its arrogance of intimidating countries has pushed humanity to the precipice of nuclear catastrophe, the consoling reality is every state now armed with nuclear weapons equate it as necessary for their own national survival.

Issue No. 968, 03 January 2012 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530 http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideOpinion.htm?f=2011/december/31/rodkapunan.isx&d=2011/decem ber/31 (Return to Articles and Documents List)

The Daily NK – South Korea OPINION/Analysis 81.7% Say NK Will Keep Nukes By Mok Yong Jae January 3, 2012 A new survey of South Korean adults has revealed that 81.7% of people do not believe that North Korea can be persuaded to abandon its nuclear weapons. Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) released the latest survey of national security awareness yesterday. It was conducted in the period from November 3rd to 17th, involving 1,017 South Koreans aged 19 years or older. Conversely, only 14.7% of South Koreans said that North Korea will abandon its nuclear weapon. If a war were to break out, 61.5% respondents said they would support the military although they would not fight, while 12.7% said that they would enlist in the army and fight directly. 3.2% of respondents said they would escape to a foreign country rather than fighting. However, 81.5% of respondents answered that they think total war is very unlikely. There was greater concern over more limited conflict, with 45.9% saying that a regional war is likely, while only 51.4% said that the possibility is low. Elsewhere, 70.1% of survey respondents said that North Korea is one of the greatest threats to South Korea. A similar number, 71.1%, said that they ‘trust in the country’s armed forces’. 51.9% of the respondents said that the current security situation is unstable, with the factors thought to be causing instability being: ▲ North Korea’s military threat (48.1%); ▲ North Korea’s regime instability (43.6%); ▲ North Korea’s nuclear weapons (38.3%). http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk00100&num=8632 (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Foreign Policy OPINION/The World of Threats For Nukes, another Lost Year By David E. Hoffman Tuesday, January 3, 2012 On February 9, 1988, President Reagan and his top aides met in the White House Situation Room to look at prospects for a strategic arms control treaty with the Soviet Union during Reagan's last year in office. Although Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev had come close to a deal on deep cuts at the Reykjavik summit in 1986, they had yet to nail down an agreement. Reagan had high hopes for a Moscow summit in the spring. He told his advisors to work hard toward a possible arms control treaty, if a satisfactory one could be hammered out. "We should all have our work shoes on," he insisted.

Issue No. 968, 03 January 2012 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

A few months later, on May 23, Reagan and his advisors met again in the Situation Room. At this point, the summit was a week away, but Reagan's advisors were at odds over missile defense. Exasperated, Secretary of State George Shultz declared at one point: “You know, this discussion highlights the fact that we can't get straight internally what we want. How can we possibly negotiate with the Soviets when we can't even articulate to each other what our position is in a meeting like this? Once in Moscow, Reagan enjoyed an upbeat summit, but did not get a strategic arms treaty, and he left office without it. The following year, the new president, George H. W. Bush, was not in a hurry either. He started his term with a misguided "pause" in dealings with Moscow. Gorbachev was frustrated, and his national security advisor, Anatoly Chernyaev, called 1989 "the lost year." (The treaty wasn't signed until 1991, in the final months before the Soviet collapse.) Why does this matter? Experience shows that "lost years" are all too common nuclear arms control negotiations. The best results come in those rare moments when national interests align and leaders summon the willpower to make compromises. By that yardstick, it looks like 2012 will be another "lost year." Presidential elections in the United States and Russia mean that leaders in both countries--which hold the lion's share of nuclear weapons in the world--will be preoccupied and cautious. There's a strange complacency about nuclear weapons. For all their destructive power, we tend to forget about them. The last atomic bomb to be used in combat was more than 60 years ago (although thousands were blown up in tests during the Cold War.) Many people ask: why worry now? Didn't Presidents Obama and Dmitri Medvedev just sign a strategic arms treaty? Yes, they did, bringing the total operational strategic warheads down to 1,550 on each side. But thousands of other nuclear warheads in the United States and Russian Federation--at least 5,000, probably more, both tactical and strategic--remain outside the existing arms control treaties. It would make sense to corral them: get a precise fix on how many are out there, decide whether any must be retained for security, and put the rest on the conveyor belt to oblivion. But negotiations require compromise, and that's difficult during political campaigns. Vladimir Putin has been weakened by the recent protests in Moscow. Although he is still expected to win the March presidential election, it may not be the best time for making deals with the United States. Likewise, Obama and the Republicans will be in a constant struggle over the next 10 months, hardly a good moment for bargaining with Moscow. In the American campaign, neither Republicans nor Democrats are expected to make nuclear arms control an issue this year; it hasn't cropped up once in the recent Republican debates. So the next window for negotiations is 2013, at the earliest. The lost year should be spent mapping out new approaches to eliminating the huge overhang of nuclear weapons from the Cold War, no matter who become the next leaders of Russia and the United States. Already, some policy discussions about the next phase are percolating in both capitals. The backlog of sticky problems between the two powers is growing ever larger, not to mention the nonproliferation challenges elsewhere. Time to get the work shoes on. To read the declassified minutes of the 1988 Reagan meetings, go to www.thereaganfiles.com and see the section on National Security Planning Group meetings. The two sessions were No. 176 and No. 190. David E. Hoffman is a Pulitzer Prize-winning author and a contributing editor to Foreign Policy. He covered foreign affairs, national politics, economics, and served as an editor at the Washington Post for 27 years. He was also a White House correspondent during the Reagan years and the presidency of George H. W. Bush, and covered the State Department when James A. Baker III was secretary. http://hoffman.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/01/03/for_nukes_another_lost_year

Issue No. 968, 03 January 2012 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

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Issue No. 968, 03 January 2012 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530