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NASANASA AdvisoryAdvisory CouncilCouncil SpaceSpace OperationsOperations CommitteeCommittee April 17, 2008

C. Paul Robinson (chair) Eileen Collins Pat Condon Thomas Jones David Longnecker Benjamin Montoya AAgendagenda 2 • Follow-up on February Meeting Activities • U.S. Commercial Expendable Forecast – with the NAC Science Committee • Commercial Orbital Transportation System (COTS) • Iran/North Korea/Syria Non-Proliferation Act (INKSNA) • Pressurized Lunar Rover and Lunar EVA Capabilities – with the NAC Exploration Committee • Forward Activity FollowFollow--upup onon FebruaryFebruary MeetingMeeting ActivitiesActivities 3 • Capturing and transferring operations and accident lessons learned to new employees and developers (CONTINUING TO MONITOR)

• Request additional briefings on pressurized rover power requirements and EVA/suit sealing systems (BRIEFED IN APRIL, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR)

• Potential site visit to the Michoud Assembly Facility during April visit (NO OPPORTUNITY IN APRIL)

• Continue to monitor transition of workforce and vendor capabilities from to Constellation (in conjunction with Human Capital and Exploration Committees) (HUMAN CAPITAL COMMITTEE BRIEFED IN APRIL) FollowFollow--upup onon FebruaryFebruary MeetingMeeting ActivitiesActivities

(continued) 4 • Continue to monitor progress of Commercial Orbital Transportation System (BRIEFED IN APRIL, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR)

• Continue to monitor utilization of ISS as a National Laboratory (with Exploration Committee and Biomedical Subcommittee) (ONGOING ACTION, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR)

• Continue to monitor the long-term availability of medium launch capabilities (with Science Committee) (BRIEFED IN APRIL, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR)

• Continue to monitor the development of the lunar outpost architecture for indefinite operational life (with Exploration Committee) (CONTINUING ACTION, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR) – radiation exposure limits for long-duration surface stays – comparison with maintaining ISS U.S.U.S. CommercialCommercial ExpendableExpendable LaunchLaunch VehicleVehicle ForecastForecast 5 • There are options in all vehicle classes (small, medium, heavy) • The II is shutting down, with re-start costs currently estimated at ~ $100M • There is an overcapacity of small and large (EELV)-class launch services – too many suppliers in those classes chasing too few customers and opportunities – not so clear in the medium-class without Delta II • Piggy-backing is an option with larger launch vehicles. However, opportunities for co-manifesting may be limited and may introduce added risk. 24 23 22 21 U.S.U.S.20 CommercialCommercial ExpendableExpendable LaunchLaunch HistoryHistory 19 1980 - 2007 6 18 17 16 Taurus Conestoga 15 14 Pegasus 13 Ti t an At l as 12 Delt a 11 10 9

s 8 ht lig

F 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 83 84 5 6 89 90 91 2 94 95 96 7 01 02 3 4 1980 1981 1982 19 19 198 198 1987 1988 19 19 19 199 1993 19 19 19 199 1998 1999 2000 20 20 200 200 2005 2006 2007 NASANASA LaunchLaunch ManifestManifest as of April 4, 2008 7

FPB Approved 2/01/08 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Release 4/04/08 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2Q3 Q4 Q1Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3Q4 A IB E X (P ) Small Class (SC) K 7/15/08 A Pegasus (P) GLORY (T) V 3/1/09 A Taurus (T) OCO (T) 12/15/08 V A GLAST (DH) A NOAA-N ' (D3) 5/16/08 V 2/1/09 A STSS ATRR A KEPLER (D) A AQUARIUS (D3) Medium Class (MC) V NET 5/31/08 (UR) 2/16/09 V 5/23/10 A A Delta 732X Series (D3) OSTM (D3) NPP (D) V 6/15/08 9/1/09 V A A Delta 742X Series (D4) WISE (D3) 11/1/09 V S T S S D e m o (D ) Delta 792X Series (D) 7/16/08 (UR)

TB D (DH ) F Delta 792X H (DH) 10/15/08

Intermediate (IC) / Heavy Class GOES-O (DIV) A (HC) 8/2008 MARS SCIENCE LD CM (AV) A L AB (AV ) LRO/LCROSS (AV) 7/2011 V A tlas V (AV ) 9/15/09 10/28/08 Juno (AV) JW ST () A 8/11/2011 D e lta IV (D IV ) SDO (AV) GOES-P (DIV) 6/2013 12/01/08 (UR) 10/2009

D e lta IV H eavy (IV H )

COTS SpaceX-2 2-Qtr/2009 NOTE: COTS Demo launch dates shown SpaceX-1 for informational purposes only - LSP 3-Qtr/2008 SpaceX-3 does not control these dates. 3-Qtr/2009

Vehicle Unassigned RB SP TDRS -L SMEX-14 3/2012 2/2013 4/2014 NuSTAR SMEX-12 SMEX-13 GPMC 8/2011 4/2012 4/2013 6/2014 GRAIL MARS 2 MMS 9/2011 12/2013 10/2014 TDRS-K GOES-R 4/2012 CY 2014 Discovery - 12 CY 2014

For NASA Planning Purposes Only UR = UNDER REVIEW = SCIENCE = SPACE OPERATIONS V = VAFB LAUNCH

A = ATP’d F = FIRM = EXPLORATION SYSTEMS = DOD REIMBURSABLE K = KWAJALEIN U.S.U.S. CommercialCommercial ExpendableExpendable LaunchLaunch VehicleVehicle ForecastForecast 8 • Administrator has requested a cohesive strategy on the launch question by the end of the summer. The Committee will review that strategy and brief the Council at future meetings. CommercialCommercial OrbitalOrbital TransportationTransportation SystemSystem

SpaceX and Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC) 9 • SpaceX has completed consolidating design and production under one roof • The Space Act Agreement has been motified to reflect SpaceX’s new testing and production schedule • SpaceX still plans the Demo 3 flight to ISS to take place prior to Shuttle retirement • OSC was recently selected as a second participant in COTS Phase I (development phase) – in October, the NAC recommended that NASA maintain at least two COTS participants through Phase I demonstration for ISS cargo delivery COTSCOTS PhasePhase II –– OrbitalOrbital SciencesSciences CorporationCorporation 10

Description & Features: • Taurus II Launch Vehicle – derivative of Taurus I with Aerojet AJ-26 engines (2) & Castor 30 2nd stage • Standard Service Module used for all missions – derived from STAR & Dawn spacecrafts • Pressurized Cargo Module – Heritage: MPLM • Unpressurized Cargo Module – Heritage: ExPRESS Logistics Carrier

Subs/Suppliers: *Major Subs • Thales-Alenia * • SAIC * • Draper* • Odyssey* • ATK • Aerojet • Yuzhnoye Design Office COTSCOTS PhasePhase II -- SpaceXSpaceX 11

Description: • Launch Vehicle • Dragon Crew/Cargo Spacecraft • Falcon 9 can lift about 9 mT to ISS orbit and carry about 3 mT of actual cargo

Proposed Features: • Flexible crew and cargo configurations • Recoverable launch vehicle and spacecraft • ISS cargo delivery & return demonstration planned for completion by March 2010 • NASA Investment: – Cargo Demonstration – up to $278 M – Not funded Crew Option – up to $308 M additional

http://www.spacex.com/ CommercialCommercial OrbitalOrbital TransportationTransportation SystemSystem

Conclusions 12 • COTS may be a player in medium launch, but is yet an unproven capability for science missions • There are a number of options in the medium launch category. But the primary motivation with COTS is to: – provide a transportation system to ISS in the time gap between Shuttle and Constellation – to use the commercial sector and competition to help lower costs • COTS’s biggest benefit in the short term is in delivering pressurized and unpressurized cargo to ISS – cargo return and crew transportation may provide opportunities in the longer-term • There is still uncertainty whether COTS can achieve its goals . Nevertheless, COTS cargo delivery is critical for maintaining ISS beyond 2010 – SpaceX milestones have already slipped • Members of the Space Operations Committee will attend upcoming major design reviews Iran,Iran, NorthNorth Korea,Korea, SyriaSyria NonNon--ProliferationProliferation ActAct

(INKSNA)(INKSNA) 13 • NASA has an exemption to INKSNA (formerly ISNA, formerly INA) to purchase Russian crew ( seats) and cargo (Progress upmass) through December 31, 2011 • NASA is not pursuing an extension to the INKSNA exemption to buy Russian cargo services after 2011 for ISS, only crew transportation and rescue services • Exemption language has been submitted to Congress (foreign relations and NASA authorization committees in both houses) PressurizedPressurized LunarLunar RoverRover andand LunarLunar EVAEVA CapabilitiesCapabilities 14 • Participated with Exploration Committee • A great deal of innovative thinking, potentially an enabler of early and extensive lunar operations. More reviews necessary, but a potential game-changer • Concur with the Exploration Committee that it is important that the U.S. maintain this kind of capability ForwardForward WorkWork 15 • Review NASA’s expendable launch vehicle strategy (with Science Committee) • Invited to attend major design reviews for COTS participants • Review NASA Space Flight Human System Standards (SFHSS) and Human Integration Design Handbook (HIDH) (with Biomedical Subcommittee) • Follow-up briefings from the ESMD Advanced Capabilities Division regarding linkages with the developing Lunar Science Institute (with Exploration Committee and Biomedical Subcommittee) • Follow up briefing from NASA Human Research Program and other subject experts regarding hazards, risks and exposure limits for lunar habitation. (with Exploration Committee and Biomedical Subcommittee) • Continue to monitor utilization of ISS as a National Laboratory (with Exploration Committee and Biomedical Subcommittee) • Continue to monitor the development of the lunar outpost architecture for indefinite operational life (with Exploration Committee and Biomedical Subcommittee) – radiation exposure limits for long-duration surface stays, including utilization of ISS to accumulate data (with the Biomedical Subcommittee) – comparison with ISS hardware maintenance and logistical sustainability 16

BACKUPBACKUP U.S.U.S. ExpendableExpendable LaunchLaunch VehiclesVehicles

Small Class 17

120 inch PLF 92 inch PLF

50 inch PLF Not currentlyavailable 84 inch 60 inch PLF PLF 92 inch PLF

Small Class Medium

Vehicle Quick- Falcon Pegasus Athena Minotau SIGNIFICAN Taurus GAP Athen Minotau Minota GAP Delta 7320 Reach 1 XL I r I T GAP XL a II r IV ur V Orbit 600 km TBD 200 250 ~300 375 900 ~1150 ~1200 NA 1650 90 deg 675 km 225 325 750-800 1100 NA 1550 Sun sync C3=0 NA NA NA NA NA 425 430 (b) NA 400 7425=750 TBR (b) Perf risk High Med Low Med Low Low Med Low Low Low - - (b): Requires additional stage for high energy missions U.S.U.S. ExpendableExpendable LaunchLaunch VehiclesVehicles

Medium and EELV Classes 18

5m PLF 4m PLF (a) Requires upper stage for high energy missions 12 ft PLF

4 m PLF 5m PLF

Delta II 73/7425 NoLongerAvailable Delta II73/7425 10 ft PLF

Medium Class EELV Class Vehicle Delta II Taurus Delta II Athena Falcon 9 SIGNIFICANT GAP Delta 4040 V 401 551 Orbit 7320/5 2 7920/5 IIIA H C3=0 750 (a) 1250 (a) 1400 (a) 1850 2000 2750 3450 6300 C3=10 650 (a) 1050 (a) 1200 (a) 1350 1350 2100 2850 5300 675 km 1550 3600/ - 3200 3500 to TBS 6800 7250 13600- sun sync 2100 800km GTO N/A TBS TBS TBS Not published 3985 4765 8570 Perf risk Low High Low High High Low Low Low