Democratic Republic of the Congo Insight and Key Trends by the World Food Programme (WFP) | 12 August 2021

HungerMapLIVE: Democratic Republic of the Congo insight and key trends By the World Food Programme (WFP) | 12 August 2021

FOOD INSECURITY AT A GLANCE

18.5M M 26.2M Chronic hunger 105.9 Acute hunger Population (undernourishment) (WFP D.R. Congo, 2021) IPC Phase 3+ (SOFI Report, 2021)1 (IPC, Aug 2021 - Dec 2021)2

The HungerMapLIVE tracks core indicators of acute hunger in near real-time.

Acute hunger is measured by key indicators such as household food consumption, livelihood behaviors, child nutritional status, mortality, access to clean drinking water and other contextual factors. The HungerMapLIVE primarily tracks trends on household food consumption, consumption-based coping and livelihood changes to track multiple aspects of food insecurity. As these are outcome level 1 indicators in the Integrated Food Security Phase Classifcation (IPC) Framework, they can provide early indications of potential shifts in acute food insecurity.

Insufcient food consumption (HungerMapLIVE data)3 37.7M → 42.6M As of 14 May 2021 As of 12 August 2021

Crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies (HungerMapLIVE data)3 53.5M → 47.1M As of 14 May 2021 As of 12 August 2021

Methodology Note: The HungerMapLIVE includes data from two sources: (1) WFP’s continuous, near real-time monitoring systems, which remotely collect thousands of data daily through live calls conducted by call centres around the world; and (2) machine learning-based predictive models. Therefore, to note this diferentiation, this report indicates whether a region’s data is based on WFP’s near real-time monitoring systems (marked ‘ACTUAL’) or predictive models (marked ‘PREDICTED’).

1 Chronic hunger (undernourishment) is defned by people not able to meet long-term food consumption requirements. Source: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2021. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021. 2 Source: IPC/CH analysis (ipcinfo.org) 3 Source: WFP HungerMap LIVE analysis, updated daily. Current food security outlook There are 17 regions considered High Risk or Moderate Risk and Deteriorating in Democratic Republic of the Congo

Nord-Ubangi Bas-Uele Haut-Uele Sud-Ubangi Mongala

Ituri

Tshopo Equateur

Tshuapa Nord-Kivu

Maï-Ndombe Confict Sud-Kivu (≥ 1 fatality/200,000 in Sankuru the last 30 days) Maniema

Kinshasa Kwilu Market (≥ 40% prevalence Kongo-Central access challenges) Lomami Kasaï Kasaï-Oriental Tanganyika Kasaï-Central Vegetation Kwango (< 80% vegetation anomaly) Haut-Lomami

Haut-Katanga Lualaba

The HungerMapLIVE divides regions into various tiers of risk based on: the prevalence of insufcient food consumption and the prevalence of households utilizing crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies, as well as the change in these prevalences from 90 days ago (14 May 2021) until now (12 August 2021). Regions are divided into these tiers based on the following criteria:

Tier 1: High Risk and Deteriorating. Regions with Tier 2: High Risk and Stable. Regions with more than Tier 3: Moderate Risk and Deteriorating. Regions Tier 4: Moderate Risk and Stable. Regions with less more than 40% prevalence for the average of the 40% prevalence for the average of the above two with less than 40% prevalence for the average of than 40% prevalence for the average of the above above two indicators AND signifcant deterioration indicators AND no signifcant deterioration the above two indicators AND signifcant two indicators AND no signifcant deterioration observed for the average of both indicators from 90 observed for the average of both indicators from 90 deterioration observed for the average of both observed for the average of both indicators from 90 days ago. days ago. indicators from 90 days ago. days ago.

Regions marked for deterioration for these metrics must satisfy one of the following conditions: (1) >40% prevalence: 15% increase, (2) 20-40% prevalence: 20% increase, (3) <20% prevalence: 25% increase. HungerMapLIVE: Democratic Republic of the Congo insight and key trends 12 August 2021

Regions with the highest prevalence of insufcient food consumption

Currently, the regions with the highest prevalence of insufcient food consumption, in order of severity, are: Kasaï-Central* ACTUAL, Kasaï* ACTUAL, Maniema* ACTUAL, Kasaï-Oriental* ACTUAL, Lomami* ACTUAL, Sankuru* ACTUAL, Sud-Kivu* ACTUAL, Ituri* ACTUAL, Tshopo* ACTUAL, Haut-Uele* ACTUAL, Bas-Uele* ACTUAL, Sud-Ubangi* ACTUAL.

These regions account for 56% of the total number of people with insufcient food consumption in Democratic Republic of the Congo—amounting to approximately 24.0M people, increasing by 3.72M (18%) compared to 90 days ago.

PREVALENCE OF INSUFFICIENT FOOD CONSUMPTION TOTAL NO. (HIGH → LOW) POPULATION AFFECTED

Kasaï- 68% 4.94M 3.38M Central* ACTUAL Kasaï* ACTUAL 68% 3.94M 2.70M

Maniema* ACTUAL 62% 2.72M 1.69M

Kasaï- 54% 5.60M 3.00M Oriental* ACTUAL Lomami* ACTUAL 54% 4.13M 2.21M

Sankuru* ACTUAL 54% 2.12M 1.14M

Sud-Kivu* ACTUAL 50% 7.34M 3.65M

Ituri* ACTUAL 43% 5.75M 2.45M

Tshopo* ACTUAL 43% 3.07M 1.31M

Haut-Uele* ACTUAL 43% 1.87M 798k

Bas-Uele* ACTUAL 43% 1.29M 552k

Sud- 39% 2.96M 1.14M Ubangi* ACTUAL

Trends of the prevalence of insufcient food consumption over the past 90 days These graphs, all on a scale from 0% to 100%, show the trend in the prevalence of insufcient food consumption over the past 90 days. The percentages detailed below the region name indicate the change in the prevalence of insufcient food consumption from 90 days ago to today, with regions sorted by the increase in prevalence of insufcient food consumption.

Maniema* ACTUAL Kinshasa* ACTUAL Sud-Ubangi* ACTUAL Mongala* ACTUAL Tshuapa* ACTUAL Equateur* ACTUAL 35% → 62% 21% → 27% 31% → 39% 31% → 39% 31% → 39% 31% → 39%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Nord-Ubangi* ACTUAL Kasaï* ACTUAL Kasaï- Kasaï- Lomami* ACTUAL Sankuru* ACTUAL 31% → 39% 56% → 68% Central* ACTUAL Oriental* ACTUAL 45% → 54% 45% → 54% 56% → 68% 45% → 54%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

*Admin 1 areas have been grouped into regions for analysis, therefore share the same trend. See methodology note for more details. HungerMapLIVE: Democratic Republic of the Congo insight and key trends 12 August 2021

Regions with the highest prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies

To support the global COVID‑19 response, WFP has expanded its near real-time remote monitoring systems to assess the food-based coping situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo. The table below shows the current situation in regions with the highest prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies. These regions account for 58% of the total number of people currently monitored for food-based coping in Democratic Republic of the Congo—amounting to approximately 27.2M people.

PREVALENCE OF CRISIS OR ABOVE CRISIS LEVEL FOOD-BASED TOTAL NO. COPING STRATEGIES (HIGH → LOW) POPULATION AFFECTED

Kasaï* ACTUAL 61% 3.94M 2.40M

Kasaï- 61% 4.94M 3.01M Central* ACTUAL Sud-Kivu* ACTUAL 56% 7.34M 4.13M

Lomami* ACTUAL 53% 4.13M 2.20M

Kasaï- 53% 5.60M 2.98M Oriental* ACTUAL Sankuru* ACTUAL 53% 2.12M 1.13M

Maniema* ACTUAL 52% 2.72M 1.42M

Nord- 49% 10.7M 5.24M Kivu* ACTUAL Equateur* ACTUAL 49% 2.52M 1.23M

Nord- 49% 1.63M 793k Ubangi* ACTUAL Sud- 49% 2.96M 1.44M Ubangi* ACTUAL Mongala* ACTUAL 49% 2.60M 1.26M

Trends of the prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies over the past 90 days These graphs, all on a scale from 0% to 100%, show the trend in the prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies over the past 90 days. The percentages detailed below the region name indicate the change in the prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies from 90 days ago to today, with regions sorted by the increase in prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies.

Kasaï- Sankuru* ACTUAL Lomami* ACTUAL Nord-Kivu* ACTUAL Sud-Kivu* ACTUAL Tanganyika* ACTUAL Oriental* ACTUAL 51% → 53% 51% → 53% 51% → 49% 59% → 56% 48% → 45% 51% → 53%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Haut- Haut- Lualaba* ACTUAL Nord-Ubangi* ACTUAL Equateur* ACTUAL Mongala* ACTUAL Lomami* ACTUAL Katanga* ACTUAL 48% → 45% 53% → 49% 53% → 49% 53% → 49% 48% → 45% 48% → 45%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Regions with the highest prevalence of challenges accessing markets1

To support the global COVID‑19 response, WFP has expanded its near real-time remote monitoring systems to assess the market access situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo. The table below shows the current situation in regions with the highest prevalence of challenges accessing markets. These regions account for 64% of the total number of people currently monitored for market access in Democratic Republic of the Congo—amounting to approximately 33.8M people.

PREVALENCE OF CHALLENGES ACCESSING MARKETS TOTAL NO. (HIGH → LOW) POPULATION AFFECTED

Sud-Kivu* ACTUAL 74% 7.34M 5.44M

Maniema* ACTUAL 72% 2.72M 1.95M

Nord-Kivu* ACTUAL 65% 10.7M 6.92M

Kasaï* ACTUAL 58% 3.94M 2.27M

Kasaï- 58% 4.94M 2.85M Central* ACTUAL Lomami* ACTUAL 52% 4.13M 2.16M

Kasaï- 52% 5.60M 2.93M Oriental* ACTUAL Sankuru* ACTUAL 52% 2.12M 1.11M

Haut- 50% 6.34M 3.17M Katanga* ACTUAL Haut- 50% 4.23M 2.12M Lomami* ACTUAL Lualaba* ACTUAL 50% 2.44M 1.22M

Tanganyika* ACTUAL 50% 3.28M 1.64M

Trends of the prevalence of challenges accessing markets over the past 90 days These graphs, all on a scale from 0% to 100%, show the trend in the prevalence of challenges accessing markets over the past 90 days. The percentages detailed below the region name indicate the change in the prevalence of challenges accessing markets from 90 days ago to today, with regions sorted by the increase in prevalence of challenges accessing markets.

Sud-Kivu* ACTUAL Kwango* ACTUAL Kwilu* ACTUAL Maï- Nord-Kivu* ACTUAL Sud-Ubangi* ACTUAL 62% → 74% 36% → 41% 36% → 41% Ndombe* ACTUAL 58% → 65% 40% → 45% 36% → 41%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Equateur* ACTUAL Nord-Ubangi* ACTUAL Mongala* ACTUAL Tshuapa* ACTUAL Kinshasa* ACTUAL Kasaï- 40% → 45% 40% → 45% 40% → 45% 40% → 45% 32% → 34% Oriental* ACTUAL 51% → 52%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

1 Challenges include both physical and fnancial constraints. *Admin 1 areas have been grouped into regions for analysis, therefore share the same trend. See methodology note for more details. Annex: Summary of food security and related metrics in Democratic Republic of the Congo, 12 August 2021

TOTAL POPULATION OF PEOPLE WITH INSUFFICIENT FOOD PEOPLE USING CRISIS OR ABOVE CRISIS LEVEL PEOPLE REPORTING CHALLENGES REFERENCE (MILLIONS) CONSUMPTION (MILLIONS) FOOD-BASED COPING STRATEGIES (MILLIONS) ACCESSING MARKETS (MILLIONS) Bas-Uele ACTUAL 1.29 0.55 0.50 0.54 Equateur ACTUAL 2.52 0.97 1.23 1.13 Haut- 6.34 1.55 2.85 3.17 Katanga ACTUAL Haut- 4.23 1.04 1.90 2.12 Lomami ACTUAL Haut-Uele ACTUAL 1.87 0.80 0.73 0.78 Ituri ACTUAL 5.75 2.45 2.23 2.41 Kasaï ACTUAL 3.94 2.70 2.40 2.27 Kasaï- 4.94 3.38 3.01 2.85 Central ACTUAL Kasaï- 5.60 3.00 2.98 2.93 Oriental ACTUAL Kinshasa ACTUAL 10.39 2.84 2.44 3.50 Kongo- 4.16 1.18 0.87 1.01 Central ACTUAL Kwango ACTUAL 2.58 0.90 0.93 1.06 Kwilu ACTUAL 5.17 1.79 1.86 2.13 Lomami ACTUAL 4.13 2.21 2.20 2.16 Lualaba ACTUAL 2.44 0.60 1.09 1.22 Maï- 1.98 0.69 0.71 0.82 Ndombe ACTUAL Maniema ACTUAL 2.72 1.69 1.42 1.95 Mongala ACTUAL 2.60 1.00 1.26 1.17 Nord-Kivu ACTUAL 10.69 3.79 5.24 6.92 Nord- 1.63 0.63 0.79 0.73 Ubangi ACTUAL Sankuru ACTUAL 2.12 1.14 1.13 1.11 Sud-Kivu ACTUAL 7.34 3.65 4.13 5.44 Sud- 2.96 1.14 1.44 1.33 Ubangi ACTUAL Tanganyika ACTUAL 3.28 0.80 1.47 1.64 Tshopo ACTUAL 3.07 1.31 1.19 1.29 Tshuapa ACTUAL 2.18 0.84 1.06 0.98 Methodology: Administrative level 1 analysis in Democratic Republic of the Congo

Results have been computed grouping administrative level 1 (ADM1) areas into strata (or regions), as specifed in the table below. All ADM1 belonging to the same region will contain the same prevalence of households with insufcient food consumption or utilizing crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies.

To compute the number of people with insufcient food consumption or utilizing crisis or above crisis level food-based coping for a specifc ADM1, the ADM1 population is multiplied by the regional prevalence.

Relationship between administrative level 1 and analysis strata

ADMIN 1 ANALYSIS STRATA

Kwango Bandundu Kwilu Bandundu Maï-Ndombe Bandundu Kongo-Central Bas-Congo Equateur Equateur Mongala Equateur Nord-Ubangi Equateur Sud-Ubangi Equateur Tshuapa Equateur Kasaï Kasaï-Occidental Kasaï-Central Kasaï-Occidental Kasaï-Oriental Kasaï-Oriental Lomami Kasaï-Oriental Sankuru Kasaï-Oriental Haut-Katanga Katanga Haut-Lomami Katanga Lualaba Katanga Tanganyika Katanga Kinshasa Kinshasa Maniema Maniema Nord-Kivu Nord-Kivu Bas-Uele Orientale Haut-Uele Orientale Ituri Orientale Tshopo Orientale Sud-Kivu Sud-Kivu HungerMapLIVE: Democratic Republic of the Congo insight and key trends 12 August 2021

DEEP DIVE

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CONFLICT