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Facing the Unexpected J Vercueil quoted Facing the unexpected: Russia andbe the Covid-19 Pandemic Provisory remarks on sanitary, economic and political developments Julien Vercueil, CREE-INALCO . Not to Communication to the BRICs Seminar (CREE-INALCO, FMSH-EHESS), May 20th, 2020 65 rue des Grands Moulins Tél. : +33 (0)1 81 70 10 00 CS21351 www.inalco.fr ProvisoryF-75214 PARIS cedex 13 J. Vercueil / BRICs Seminar (CREE-INALCO, FMSH-EHESS)/ May 20th, 2020 1. Managing a pandemic crisis. From denial to care? quoted • Any unusual lag in the political reaction? • An apparent 1-month delay of outbreak of the epidemic / 282 000 cases as of May, 17th Western Europe be (6 Mns tests) • The set of sanitary measures taken § Confinement, testing, hospital rearmament Regional Governors’ responsibility § Requisition of students & lack of adequate equipment Respirators in St Petersburg • The apparent evolution of Covid-19 epidemic 2nd country in the world by the number of § Counting deaths: a problem.for Notan authoritarian toregime cases, 46th by the proportion of deaths § The (1st wave) epidemic seems to be reaching its peak Daily deaths, March-May 2020 § Regional discrepancies (cities / regions) (weekly moving average) § Critics and commentaries 2000 United States >65 years-old men : 55% of deaths in French hospitals Start of (Total: 90000) « Nonworking France: 6,0 Mns / Russia: 6,4 Mns 1000 Brazil Italy period » (28/03) =>Underestimation of the death toll in hospitals: (T: 16000) (T: 32000) Regional Lockdowns by a factor 10 according to some critics (more likely, 2 to 5) (30/03) Russia (T: 2600) Provisory 01/03 01/04 01/05 Covid-19 Pandemic in Russia (Mid-May 2020) – Cases by Regions quoted be Kaluga Sverdlovsk Riazan Nijni-Novgorod . NotTatarstan to Tula Krasnodar Deaths: 29 (Federal authorities) or 657 (ProvisoryRepublic ’s Ministry of Health) ? J. Vercueil / BRICs Seminar (CREE-INALCO, FMSH-EHESS)/ May 20th, 2020 2. Impacts on the economy: multiple shocks, one toolbox to address them quoted • 2.1. International insertion 3. [March - 10 May 2020] / Year 2019: Brent price : -60% • External demand (China-Asia, EU, US) be Rouble exchange rate : -13% • The OPEC+ war and its consequences 2. Oil prices and Rouble exchange rate, on oil prices 2019-May 2020 80 • Rouble exchange rate 18 60 16 1. Monthly External Trade with the World and China 14 (July 2018-Feb 2020, Thsds US $) 40 ExPorts to the 12 45000000 . Not7000000 to20 World (LhS) 10 40000000 6000000 35000000 0 8 X to 5000000 30000000 China (RhS) 6 25000000 M from China (RhS) 4000000 -20 20000000 3000000 4 juil 12, 2019 juil 29, 2019 avr 01, 2019 avr 16, 2019 2019 14, oct 2019 29, oct avr 22, 2020 déc 16, 2019 16, déc mai 07, 2019 mai 24, 2019 juin 11, 2019 juin 27, 2019 2019 14, nov 2019 29, nov mai 10, 2020 févr 12, 2019 12, févr 2019 27, févr 2020 10, févr 2020 26, févr janv 10, 2019 janv 28, 2019 janv 02, 2020 janv 24, 2020 sePt 12, 2019 sePt 27, 2019 -40 août 13, 2019 août 28, 2019 15000000 ImPorts from 15, mars2019 13, mars2020 30, mars2020 2000000 2 10000000 CBR data (Jan-March) : the World 5000000 -20% X Q1 (M Q1 Stable) (LhS) 1000000 -60 0 0 0 EuroPe Brent SPot Price FOB (Dollars Per Barrel, LhS) Exchange rate ($/1000 Roubles, RhS) juil.-18 juil.-19 mai-19 juin-19 oct.-18 avr.-19 oct.-19 déc.-18 déc.-19 nov.-18 nov.-19 févr.-19 févr.-20 août-18 août-19 janv.-19 janv.-20 sePt.-18 mars-19 sePt.-19 ProvisoryAuthor’s Elaboration. Data : US Energy Information Administration, Central Bank of Russia, Comtrade Database J. Vercueil / BRICs Seminar (CREE-INALCO, FMSH-EHESS)/ May 20th, 2020 2. Impacts on the economy: multiple shocks, one toolbox to address them (followed) • 2.2. Domestic developments quotedHit by the Covid-19 : Mikhail Mishustin (P. M.) • The state apparatus: disturbed, but Olga Lyubimova (Culture M.) Vladimir Yakushev (ConstruCtion M.) not disorganized beValery Falkov (EduCation and SCienCe M.) DmItry Peskov (President Spokesman) • Budgetary options: strengthes and weaknesses • Lock-down and domestic demand • Anti-crisis measures. Not to • Current trajectory and previsions Provisory J. Vercueil / BRICs Seminar (CREE-INALCO, FMSH-EHESS)/ May 20th, 2020 3. Analysis: what kind of path dependency? quoted • The current political landscape • External relations and internationalbe insertion • Relations between society and the political power . Not to Provisory J. Vercueil / BRICs Seminar (CREE-INALCO, FMSH-EHESS)/ May 20th, 2020 Appendix 1 Consequences of the epidemic: Compared Italy evolutions quotedUnited States (+2w/EU) be (15/05/2020 Death toll 1600) Brazil (+2w/USA) . Not to (15/05/2020 Death toll 968) Russia (+2w/USA) (15/05/2020 Death toll 113) Provisory SourCes : données John Hopkins University, infographie Le Monde, 15/05/2020 Appendix 2. Age pyramids compared: Russia – Italy - France quoted be Hommes de + de 65 ans : >55 % des . Not to décès dans les hôpitaux français • Nombre en France : 6,0 M (8,4 % pop) • Nombre en Russie : 6,6 M (4,6 % pop) ProvisorySource : Le Monde, 16/05/2020.
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