MONTHLY November 2020 CONTENTS
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MONTHLY November 2020 CONTENTS 12 19 30 RUSSIA’S CORONAVIRUS IN THE INTEREST OF U.S.-RUSSIA NAVY INCIDENT VACCINE RACE CONTINUES THE KREMLIN? RUSSIAN IN THE NORTH PACIFIC OLIGARCH CREATES FAR-RIGHT MOVEMENT IN THE INTEREST OF THE KREMLIN? MOLDOVA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: RUSSIAN OLIGARCH CREATES FAR-RIGHT 3 RUSSIA HELPS DODON 19 MOVEMENT WEAK ROUBLE, TIGHT BUDGET: NEW LAVROV VISITS MINSK: LOCKDOWN WOULD SMASH RUSSIAN RUSSIA WANTS LUKASHENKO 4 ECONOMY 20 TO IMPLEMENT COMMITMENTS U.S. ELECTION: WHAT SECHIN’S “STEEL” BUSINESS RAISES SERIOUS 6 IS RUSSIA COUNTING ON? 22 DOUBTS RUSSIAN POLICE AND INTELLIGENCE DISAGREE OVER WHAT REALLY HAPPENED MOLDOVA’S SANDU ON WITHDRAWING 7 TO NAVALNY 24 RUSSIAN FORCES FROM TRANSNISTRIA RUSSIA DEPLOYS ITS “PEACEKEEPERS” OPEC+ STUTTERS OVER OIL CUT DEAL, 9 TO NAGORNO-KARABAKH 25 RUSSIA’S SECHIN FORECASTS OIL PRICES RUSSIA LAUNCHES CABINET RESHUFFLE TURMOIL OVER TURKSTREAM LOAN: IS 10 ALSO IN ENERGY MINISTRY 27 SERBIAN LEG OF THE PIPELINE IN DANGER? RUSSIA’S CORONAVIRUS VACCINE RACE RUSSIA POURS MONEY 12 CONTINUES 28 INTO IRAQI OILFIELDS MORE LIBYAN OIL CAUSES HEADACHE MOLDOVA ELECTION: SANDU FOR RUSSIANS MORE LIBYAN OIL CAUSES 14 SMASHES RUSSIA’S CANDIDATE 30 HEADACHE FOR RUSSIANS ROSNEFT AND GAZPROM NEFT LET FOREIGN INVESTORS ENTER ARCTIC U.S.-RUSSIA NAVY INCIDENT 16 PROJECTS 30 IN THE NORTH PACIFIC RUSSIAN INSPECTION: LAVROV, SHOIGU VISIT ARMENIA ROSNEFT PLANS TO SELL SOME DEPOSITS 17 AND AZERBAIJAN 31 AMID COSTLY VOSTOK OIL PROJECT 2 www.warsawinstitute.org SOURCE: KREMLIN.RU 2 November 2020 MOLDOVA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: RUSSIA HELPS DODON Pro-Western opposition leader Maia Sandu secured a surprise lead against Moldova’s current president Igor Dodon. The Kremlin-endorsed incumbent leader eventually came second. A second round is set to take place in two weeks. The country’s former prime minister is likely to win the ballot, but Russia will do everything to keep Dodon in office. fter counting over 80 percent of all commission counted 99.8 percent of ballots. A ballots, Dodon took a lead with 35 The incumbent president has close links to percent support while Sandu had 31 percent of Russia and his socialist party is now in power votes. However, things changed after adding in Moldova. Earlier, the Socialist Party had overseas voters. Sandu had 36.1 percent, while gotten rid of Maia Sandu, a move to break off Dodon had 32.66 percent support after the the coalition with the country’s pro-Western www.warsawinstitute.org 3 bloc. Dodon seeks to forge a deeper strategic an ineffective battle against the coronavirus partnership with Russia and more profound pandemic, the country’s ubiquitous corruption, ties with the Eurasian Economic Union. While and the high unemployment rate that forces Russia is throwing almost open support people to find a job abroad. Sandu points to to Dodon, Moldova’s socialists and Moscow Dodon’s pro-Russian stance while reminding officials accused Sandu of acting on behalf its compatriots that the incumbent leader never of Western countries. Russia’s top diplomat visited Ukraine and Romania – Moldova’s two Sergey Lavrov has blamed the United States neighbors – during his first term in office. for its alleged efforts to “impose full control Moscow sees both as its enemies. The second of Moldova,” and Sergey Naryshkin, the head round is poised to bring even more cases of of Russia’s intelligence agency SVR, accused electoral fraud. For instance, large groups of the country of plotting a color revolution in Moldovan passport holders might be brought Moldova. Also, there was evidence of Russian to cast their votes from the breakaway region meddling in the presidential campaign. A of Transnistria. They practically all vote for journalistic investigation found that political pro-Russian candidates. Another thing is how advisers close to Kremlin are working for pro- credibly the numerous diaspora of Moldovan Russian President Igor Dodon in his re-election economic migrants in Russia might cast their campaign while the Moldovan leader was in fact ballots. The country’s opposition is fearful of a Kremlin puppet. Social unrest is yet another repeating the 2016 scenario when both Dodon factor targeting Dodon. The vast majority of and Sandu entered the second round of the Moldovans believe that their country is going in vote, with the former winning in the tight race the wrong direction. The incumbent president albeit amid violations in the electoral process. and government come under fire for fighting 4 November 2020 WEAK ROUBLE, TIGHT BUDGET: NEW LOCKDOWN WOULD SMASH RUSSIAN ECONOMY Issues like political spats, low crude prices and the second wave of the coronavirus strike a blow to the Russian economy. However, authorities have resisted a second lockdown despite a surge in new cases. Yet the Russian national currency is seeing constant drops in value. 4 www.warsawinstitute.org SOURCE: WIKIMEDIA COMMONS n early November, the rouble fell to 94 hobble with new restrictions. Officials started I per one euro, hitting its worst levels since easing spring measures quite quickly, a move 2014. Neither repeated assurances from that helped Russia sustain lower losses than officials nor efforts made by the central bank in many other countries. Between January proved effective. The rouble shed 30 percent and August, the Russian GDP fell by roughly of its value in just a year due to a set of both 3.6 percent year-on-year. Russia’s Economy adverse factors at home and abroad. These Ministry expects the country’s gross domestic are both short- and long-term. One example product to contract 3.9 percent this year, far was uncertainty in global markets amidst the less than its spring estimates. Yet the forecast U.S. election, and earlier also concerns over did not take into account the second wave possible sanctions against Russia following the of the pandemic. Alexei Kudrin, the head of attempted poisoning of Alexey Navalny. The Russia’s Audit Chamber, is far more realistic, rouble has also weathered a political crisis in projecting a 4.8 percent decrease in the Russian neighboring Belarus. Indeed, there are also gross domestic product and adding that the far deeper and more long-lasting risks like the government should revise budget its 2021 coronavirus pandemic and low-priced crude budget plan. The problem is that the budget is oil in global markets. As for the novel virus, already pretty tight. Russia’s only tool for easing Russia has confirmed 18,648 new coronavirus the situation if it gets worse is the National cases as of November 3, bringing their total Welfare Fund. The country’s rainy-day fund to over 18,000 daily cases for the fifth straight had $117 billion as of October 1, 2020. The thing day. This leads to a total of 1,673,686 infected is that the fund serves to cover differences and 28,828 deaths by November 3, according between both the anticipated and actual crude to official data. However, the authorities said prices worldwide, or it plugs a budget deficit there would be no repeat of a spring lockdown. from lower hydrocarbon revenues. The Russian economy would completely www.warsawinstitute.org 5 SOURCE: KREMLIN.RU 4 November 2020 U.S. ELECTION: WHAT IS RUSSIA COUNTING ON? The longer it takes to announce the winner of the U.S. presidential runoff, the better it looks from Moscow’s point of view – as Russia is setting its eyes on neither of the candidates in the 2020 vote. Russia’s goal is far from hoping for the victory of either Donald Trump or Joe Biden; its true purpose is to shake the political situation in the United States and even spark a crisis in the U.S. election system, sending shockwaves into the American democratic model. The Kremlin can also enjoy the U.S. post-election turmoil to go ahead with its own political operations – like those in the post-Soviet area. ergey Naryshkin, the head of Russia’s spy the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti, S agency, spoke in the wake of the final voting the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service day in the United States, with his words seen as (SVR) said it does not matter who wins the U.S. a stance of the siloviki camp whose members presidential race as neither the Republicans nor take a firm position in the Russian leadership Democrats are interested in improving equal and seek a confrontation with the West abroad ties with Russia. In fact, Naryshkin reiterated and tougher repression at home. Speaking to what Moscow officials had said sometime 6 www.warsawinstitute.org before on a similarly negative attitude to forging vote. Moscow’s mission is to destabilize the better ties with Washington when either Biden American state as long as it is possible to cripple is newly elected or Trump wins another term the legitimacy of the presidential winner once in office. However, it is worth recalling a part of finally elected. A new U.S. leader holding a the interview where Naryshkin touched upon doubtful mandate – especially in the eyes of the U.S. election mechanisms. What is visible is adverse political camp – is the dream scenario that Russia – while waging its information for the Kremlin. It has always been Moscow’s warfare campaign – has the intention of using strategic aim to make the U.S. establishment the U.S. political turmoil to attack the core focus more on its domestic affairs rather than of American democracy. If Naryshkin argues foreign ones. This time no champagne corks that mail-in ballots might cause delays in the popped – nor they will – in Moscow as they results, thus giving the ground to question might have in 2016 after Trump won the White them and keep discrepancies resonate within House.