Multidecadal Climate Variability and the Florescence of Fremont Societies in 2 Eastern Utah

ARTICLE

1 Multidecadal Climate Variability and the Florescence of Fremont Societies in 2 Eastern Utah

3 Judson Byrd Finley , Erick Robinson, R. Justin DeRose, and Elizabeth Hora

4 Fremont societies of the Uinta Basin incorporated domesticates into a foraging lifeway over a 1,000-year period from AD 300 to 5 AD 1300. Fremont research provides a unique opportunity to critically examine the social and ecological processes behind the 6 adoption and abandonment of domesticates by hunter-gatherers. We develop and integrate a 2,115-year precipitation recon- 7 struction with a Bayesian chronological model for the growth of Fremont societies in the Cub Creek reach of Dinosaur National 8 Monument. Comparison of the archaeological chronology with the precipitation record suggests that the florescence of Fremont 9 societies was an adaptation to multidecadal precipitation variability with an approximately 30-plus-year periodicity over most, 10 but not all, of the last 2,115 years. Fremont societies adopted domesticates to enhance their resilience to periodic droughts. We 11 propose that reduced precipitation variability from AD 750 to AD 1050, superimposed over consistent mean precipitation avail- 12 ability, was the tipping point that increased maize production, initiated agricultural intensification, and resulted in increased 13 population and development of pithouse communities. Our study develops a multidecadal/multigenerational model within 14 which to evaluate the strategies underwriting the adoption of domesticates by foragers, the formation of Fremont communities, 15 and the inherent vulnerabilities to resource intensification that implicate the eventual dissolution of those communities.

16 Keywords: Fremont, Uinta Basin, Bayesian modeling, precipitation reconstruction

17 Las sociedades de Fremont de la cuenca de Uinta incorporaron a los domesticados en una forma de vida de alimentación dur- 18 ante un período de 1,000 años desde 300–1300 dC. La investigación de Fremont brinda una oportunidad única para examinar 19 críticamente los procesos sociales y ecológicos detrás de la adopción y el abandono de los domésticos por parte de los caza- 20 dores-recolectores. Desarrollamos e integramos una reconstrucción de precipitación de 2.115 años con un modelo cronológico 21 Bayesiano para el crecimiento de las sociedades de Fremont en el alcance de Cub Creek del Dinosaur National Monument. La 22 comparación de la cronología arqueológica con el registro de precipitación sugiere que la floración de las sociedades de Fre- 23 mont fue una adaptación a la variabilidad de precipitación multidecadal con una periodicidad de aproximadamente 30 años en 24 la mayoría, pero no en todos, de los |últimos 2,115 años. Las sociedades de Fremont adoptaron domesticados para mejorar su 25 resistencia a las sequías periódicas. Proponemos que la variabilidad reducida de la precipitación desde 750–1050 dC, super- 26 puesta sobre la disponibilidad de precipitación media constante, fue el punto de inflexión que aumentó la producción de maíz, 27 inició la intensificación agrícola y dio como resultado un aumento de la población y el desarrollo de las comunidades de médu- 28 las. Nuestro estudio desarrolla un modelo multidecadal / multigeneracional dentro del cual evaluar las estrategias que sustentan 29 la adopción de domesticados por parte de los recolectores, la formación de comunidades de Fremont y las vulnerabilidades 30 inherentes a la intensificación de recursos que implican la eventual disolución de esas comunidades.

31 Palabras clave: Fremont, Cuenca Uinta, modelado Bayesiano, reconstruccion precipitacion

Judson Byrd Finley ▪ Department of Sociology, Social Work, and Anthropology, Utah State University, 0730 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-0730, USA (judson.ﬁ[email protected], corresponding author) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0233-8630 Erick Robinson ▪ Department of Sociology, Social Work, and Anthropology, Utah State University, 0730 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-0730, USA ([email protected]) R. Justin DeRose ▪ Ecology Center and Department of Wildland Resources, 5205 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-5205; and Forest Inventory and Analysis, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 507 25th Street, Ogden, UT 84401, USA (rjustinderose@ gmail.com) Elizabeth Hora ▪ Utah State Historic Preservation Ofﬁce, 300 S. Rio Grande Street, Salt Lake City, UT 84101, USA (ehora@ utah.gov) American Antiquity 0(0), 2019, pp. 1–20 Copyright © 2019 by the Society for American Archaeology doi:10.1017/aaq.2019.79

1 2 AMERICAN ANTIQUITY [Vol. 0, No. 0, 2019

32 cholars working in the eastern Great Basin that unfolded over the course of a few decades to 82 33 and northern Colorado Plateau have long a century at most (Simms 2008:189). The poten- 83 34 Srecognized the potential of the Fremont tial provided by a generational (∼25 years; Whit- 84 35 archaeological record to contribute to broad tle and Bayliss 2007) framework for the 85 36 understandings of the foraging-farming transi- foraging-farming transition is something that 86 37 tion. We follow an inclusive definition of Fre- cannot be attained in other global case studies 87 38 mont as those northern Colorado Plateau of this critical but repeated moment in human 88 39 Formative societies that cultivated domesticates history. However, coarse-grained chronologies 89 40 from 200 BC (Geib 1996; Roberts 2018; Wilde based primarily on long-lived radiocarbon sam- 90 41 et al. 1986) into the AD 1500s in certain loca- ples currently applied to the Fremont record 91 42 tions peripheral to the region (Creasman and (Massimo and Metcalfe 1999; Spangler 2000, 92 43 Scott 1987; Spangler and Jones 2012). Most Fre- 2002; Talbot and Wilde 1989) limit our potential 93 44 mont groups adopted domesticates relatively late to realize a generational perspective on commu- 94 45 in prehistory, a period spanning 1,000 years from nity formation during the foraging-farming 95 46 AD 300 to AD 1300, creating large pithouse transition. 96 47 hamlets and rock art galleries that have been This study provides the first steps toward 97 48 studied for more than a century (Montgomery developing generational-scale approaches to the 98 49 1894; Morss 1931). Opinions vary in how to Fremont record by examining the formation of 99 50 best interpret the record as either an enigmatic a pithouse community in the Cub Creek reach 100 51 northern periphery of the American Southwest of Dinosaur National Monument in eastern 101 52 (Judd 1926; Kidder 1924), an historically Utah’s Uinta Basin. We propose that the devel- 102 53 independent phenomenon (Gunnerson 1969; opment of high-precision archaeological chron- 103 54 Marwitt 1970), an exemplar of behavioral vari- ology and a high-resolution precipitation 104 55 ability as it pertains to the foraging-farming tran- reconstruction are essential to achieving a gener- 105 56 sition (Madsen and Simms 1998), or a player in a ational perspective of the Fremont foraging- 106 57 vast regional system (Talbot 2018, 2019). At farming transition. High-precision chronology 107 58 some fundamental level, all of these perspectives in our analysis means three things. First, sam- 108 59 are correct. The regional adoption of maize agri- pling strategies focus as much as possible on 109 60 culture overlaps chronologically with the final short-lived annuals that target specific events. 110 61 centuries of the Basketmaker II period on the Second, new dating methods yield small stand- 111 62 southern Colorado Plateau (Matson 1991), and ard errors in individual radiocarbon ages that 112 63 many Fremont communities likely represented reduce the probabilities of calibrated age ranges. 113 64 a mix of indigenous foragers and immigrant Third, formal Bayesian models that incorporate 114 65 farmers (Simms 2008:199–205). archaeological information such as sample loca- 115 66 Madsen and Simms (1998) isolate the prob- tion and site type and that enable potential 116 67 lem of Fremont behavioral variability by focus- inbuilt-age samples (e.g., “old wood”) to be sta- 117 68 ing on the concepts of adaptive diversity and tistically accounted for reduce the potential to 118 69 residential cycling. In the Fremont example, overestimate the spans of target events to be 119 70 one facet of adaptive diversity refers to the timely dated (Bayliss et al. 2007; Bronk Ramsey 120 71 incorporation of cultigens in a primarily foraged 2009). Formal Bayesian models provide poster- 121 72 diet, while residential cycling describes the ior densities, which estimate ages for the begin- 122 73 movement of individuals into and out of semi- ning and end of Fremont occupations that 123 74 sedentary horticultural communities and life- approach multidecadal, multigenerational scales 124 75 ways throughout their life histories. Both of analysis. Bayesian model output is different 125 76 processes characterize the vast frontier between from more commonly used summed probability 126 77 true foraging and farming societies of western distribution (SPD) models in that posterior prob- 127 78 North America (Upham 1994). Within this con- ability densities are age ranges reducing uncer- 128 79 text, we must consider the Fremont archaeo- tainty in the timing of events of archaeological 129 80 logical record, particularly the formation of interest rather than a continuous time series repre- 130 81 pithouse communities, as a generational process sented by SPDs. As such, Bayesian age models 131 Judson Byrd Finley et al.] MULTIDECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND FREMONT FLORESCENCE 3

132 are not subject to issues of taphonomic loss chronology allows us to capture behavioral vari- 182 133 (Surovell et al. 2009) that are often considered ability that Madsen and Simms (1998) proposed 183 134 in regard to SPDs. In addition, and most import- in order to characterize the Fremont foraging- 184 135 ant to this study, SPDs provide coarse-grained farming transition. Our reconstruction of Uinta 185 136 regional analyses that lack the small-scale and Fremont culture history is incongruent with 186 137 site-specific resolving power of Bayesian age Spangler’s(2000) Uinta adaptation, including a 187 138 models. We wish to make clear that the Bayes- hypothesis of regional abandonment after AD 188 139 ian age model output does not provide a con- 1050, which we suggest is based on an aggre- 189 140 tinuous time series that can be correlated with gated, coarse-grained, and therefore imprecise 190 141 a continuous environmental reconstruction like chronology. We conclude with suggestions 191 142 the one we present. Rather, our interpretation about how high-precision chronologies of Fre- 192 143 is based on a comparison of event timing in mont community formation can be exported to 193 144 both the archaeological and paleoenviron- other sites across the Uinta Basin and the Fre- 194 145 mental records. mont world as a whole. 195 146 Developing high-resolution climate recon- 147 structions based on long tree-ring chronologies The Cub Creek Archaeological District 196 148 has not been a central focus of Fremont environ- 149 mental archaeological studies. We produce a new The Fremont archaeological record has a long 197 150 regional precipitation reconstruction based on history of scientific investigation in the eastern 198 151 tree-ring widths that spans the last 2,115 years Great Basin and northern Colorado Plateau, ran- 199 152 and captures precipitation variability in the cen- ging from excavations along the Wasatch Front 200 153 turies leading into and out of the Fremont period. near Salt Lake City as part of the 1893 Chicago 201 154 Strong, multidecadal trends in interannual pre- World’s Fairs to the Harvard Peabody Museum’s 202 155 cipitation variability emerge from the analysis 1928–1931 Claflin-Emerson Expedition (Gun- 203 156 that we compare directly with our chronological nerson 1969; Morss 1931). This body of research 204 157 model of Cub Creek. Generational-scale shifts in is reviewed by Madsen and Simms (1998), 205 158 predictable precipitation regimes likely con- Simms (2008), and Spangler (2013). Archaeol- 206 159 trolled the shifts between foraging and horticul- ogists divide the Fremont area into five region- 207 160 ture. We suggest that the low-level adoption of ally distinct variants (Ambler 1966;Marwitt 208 161 cultigens was a successful response to multideca- 1970). Here, we focus on the Uinta Fremont. 209 162 dal climate variability that offset shortfalls of for- Spangler (2000, 2002) provides comprehensive 210 163 aged foods. Furthermore, the intensification of reviews of the Uinta Basin record. Our review 211 164 maize horticulture and pithouse community for- covers the Cub Creek Archaeological District 212 165 mation occurred during a 300-year period that in the Utah portion of Dinosaur National 213 166 corresponds to a breakdown of the dominant Monument. 214 167 multidecadal variability regime when precipita- 215 168 tion, on average, would have been more predict- History of Investigations 169 able, increasing maize yields. We propose that The Cub Creek Archaeological District is located 216 170 similar processes structured the formation of along a first-order tributary of the Green River 217 171 other Fremont communities across the northern that receives most of its water from the slick-rock 218 172 Uinta Basin and that the phase of resource surface of Split Mountain immediately north of 219 173 intensification may have been at the center of Cub Creek, which recharges numerous local 220 174 emergent social hierarchies and intercommunity springs at the base of the mountains and provides 221 175 conflict noted in the regional archaeological surface run-off to the perennial stream (Figure 1). 222 176 record. Split Mountain, so named in 1869 by John Wes- 223 177 In the following study, we review the Cub ley Powell for the canyon that the Green River 224 178 Creek archaeological record as it pertains to our cuts through the massive uplift, is an extensive 225 179 analysis. We present the methods and results of exposure of Late Paleozoic Weber Formation 226 180 our high-precision chronology and high- Sandstone flanked by flatirons of Triassic Chinle 227 181 resolution precipitation reconstruction. This Formation Sandstone, and various Jurassic 228 4 AMERICAN ANTIQUITY [Vol. 0, No. 0, 2019 Fig. 1 - Colour online, Colour in print

Figure 1. Location of the Cub Creek Archaeological District in the northern Uinta Basin. Major Fremont communities are shown on the regional map. The inset map illustrates the general location of sites formalized in the age model.

229 deposits, including the cross-bedded eolian 1970; Leach 1966), Deluge Shelter (Leach 244 230 Nugget Sandstone and the fossil-bearing Morri- 1970a), Swelter Shelter (Leach 1970b), and sev- 245 231 son Formation (Gregson et al. 2010). The local eral other rockshelters in the Jones Hole reach of 246 232 combination of hard-rock stratigraphy, geo- the Monument (Burton 1970; Sheets 1969). The 247 233 morphology, and hydrology made ideal environ- Fremont archaeology of the Yampa River canyon 248 234 mental conditions for Fremont horticulture and country was well known at the time, particularly 249 235 the eventual formation of an extensive pithouse through work at Mantles Caves (Burgh and 250 236 community—most importantly, a source of Scoggin 1948), Marigold Cave (Burgh 1950), 251 237 sandy alluvium for ﬁeld locations and a stable, and Hells Midden (Lister 1951)—all preliminary 252 238 shallow water table. studies in a failed Bureau of Reclamation effort 253 239 Work at Cub Creek took place from 1963 to to dam both rivers at Echo Park (Stegner 254 240 1965, which is when University of Colorado 1955). The recognized potential of the Monu- 255 241 crews conducted preliminary archaeological sur- ment’s archaeological record was one of several 256 242 veys across Dinosaur National Monument as tools leveraged in the movement to stop dam 257 243 well as excavations at Cub Creek (Breternitz construction. 258 Judson Byrd Finley et al.] MULTIDECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND FREMONT FLORESCENCE 5

259 Breternitz’s 1964–1965 Cub Creek excava- with other Uinta Basin sites that the University 309 260 tions focused on 11 Fremont sites in the valley, of Colorado and University of Utah crews exca- 310 261 including Boundary Village (Leach 1966), vated in the 1960s. During a short tenure at Dino- 311 262 Whole Place Village (Birkedal and Hayden saur National Monument, Truesdale (1993) 312 263 1970), Wagon Run (Maronde 1970), and Burnt added the first AMS radiocarbon ages of Cub 313 264 House Village (Biggs 1970). Leach’s(1966) Creek pithouses, leading to the conclusion that 314 265 work at Boundary Village provided the frame- construction occurred from approximately AD 315 266 work for subsequent analysis and interpretation 450 to 750. Otherwise, in many Fremont over- 316 267 where Type I and Type II houses were recog- views (Madsen and Simms 1998; Spangler 317 268 nized as representing a key developmental con- 2000), the sites became lumped into the Dino- 318 269 struction sequence observed in superposed saur National Monument sites or, generally, as 319 270 stratigraphic position. Both Type I and Type II Cub Creek Village. This added a level of confu- 320 271 houses are roughly circular in outline and shal- sion about the valley as a whole and what each 321 272 lowly excavated into sandy substrate. The key site might individually contribute to understand- 322 273 difference between house types is the formaliza- ing the importance of the Fremont horticultural 323 274 tion in Type II structures of a four-post center transition. 324 275 framework, clay-lined floors, and adobe-collared We revisited the area in 2016–2017 with the 325 276 fire hearths. Other house forms in Cub Creek aim first to document the impacts of tourism on 326 277 include rectangular, rock-outlined structures extensive rock art galleries, which quickly 327 278 appearing either as single features or contiguous expanded to include revisiting the pithouse ham- 328 279 “rooms.” Bell-shaped storage cists are common lets, as well as a few known open-air sites and 329 280 inside houses, as well as extramural work areas. rockshelters. In the Monument files, we dis- 330 281 Abundant grayware pottery, formalized ground covered an additional set of approximately 30 331 282 stone along with two-handed manos and trough unreported sites that had been documented in 332 283 metates, varied stone and bone tool assemblages, 2002–2003 with the repeated theme of “roasting 333 284 faunal remains, and maize macrofossils are evi- feature.” By the end of the 2017 field season, we 334 285 dence for a characteristically diverse but intensi- understood Cub Creek to consist of approxi- 335 286 fied mixed foraging-farming economy. The mately 70 sites, including the originally reported 336 287 absence of formalized middens at any site indi- pithouse hamlets, rock art galleries, and rock- 337 288 cates a probably semisedentary community. Bre- shelters, as well as six storage sites—one of 338 289 ternitz’s crew excavated 36 pithouses and 131 which is a proper cliff-side granary—and >120 339 290 features (i.e., hearths, cists, pits, and bins) in roasting features. Roasting features are roughly 340 291 the Cub Creek pithouse hamlets. With no abso- circular charcoal and ash stains averaging 4 m 341 292 lute chronological information, Breternitz in diameter, with extensive surface scatters of 342 293 (1970:160–161) suggested the Cub Creek fire-cracked rock and informal ground stone 343 294 Phase occupied a narrow window from AD assemblages with manos of Uinta Group Forma- 344 295 1000 to 1150, a period that became deeply tion Quartzite coming from Quaternary alluvium 345 296 entrenched in local cultural historical frame- of the Green River and slab metates of Jurassic 346 297 works (Spangler 2000:122). This short chron- sandstone available on-site. Pottery is notably 347 298 ology was at odds with a long view of Fremont absent from these sites. In contrast with pithouse 348 299 culture history argued by Jennings (1978). As hamlets, which occur on Quaternary terraces and 349 300 in other Uinta Fremont communities, status dif- pediments immediately adjacent to the main stem 350 301 ferentiation is difficult to discern through house of Cub Creek, roasting features are found almost 351 302 size, human interments, and material remains, exclusively in the uplands, sheltered by massive 352 303 although elaborate anthropomorphs in numerous sandstone flatirons and fins. Our knowledge of 353 304 Classic Vernal rock art panels attest to emergent these roasting features comes from surface obser- 354 305 heterarchical leadership. vations only, and it is possible they may represent 355 306 Reinvestigating Cub Creek. In the decades early pithouse forms similar to those observed in 356 307 following Breternitz’s(1970) excavations, the the Steinaker Lake area (Talbot and Richens 357 308 Cub Creek sites remained unanalyzed along 2004). Our working hypothesis is that these 358 6 AMERICAN ANTIQUITY [Vol. 0, No. 0, 2019

359 features represent stone boiling of maize in a pre- problems, the past two decades have seen a rise 406 360 pottery context similar to Basketmaker sites in in the development of more formalized chronolo- 407 361 southeastern Utah’s Cedar Mesa (Ellwood et al. gies using Bayesian statistics that enable the 408 362 2013). incorporation of this other archaeological infor- 409 363 This site sample is the basis for our chrono- mation. This “informative prior information” 410 364 logical model of Fremont community formation. (Bronk Ramsey 2009) enables the development 411 365 In subsequent discussions, we use the terms of parameters (e.g., the start or end of occupa- 412 366 Upland and Lowland occupations to reference tions, or the transition between two occupation 413 367 roasting sites and pithouse hamlets, respectively. phases) in the formal model that, once modeled 414 368 Elevation differences between the two categories alongside the actual radiocarbon samples of 415 369 are minimal, and instead, the terms describe interest, can be assigned 68% and 95% posterior 416 370 fundamental differences in the geomorphic probability density ages. The formalization of 417 371 position of roasting features in weathered Paleo- archaeological chronologies using Bayesian 418 372 zoic and Mesozoic sandstone landforms and approaches provides estimates that are more pre- 419 373 pithouse hamlets adjacent to Quaternary alluvial cise for probable ages of target archaeological 420 374 landforms. events and can provide chronologies on the 421 scale of human generations (Bayliss et al. 2007, 422 ∼ 423 375 Methods 2011). By human generations we mean 25 years (Whittle and Bayliss 2007). Considering 424 previous interpretations of Fremont pithouse 425 376 Age Model Background communities being occupied on generational 426 377 Knowledge of the development of Fremont soci- scales (Simms 2008:189), merely calibrating 427 378 eties has been based on radiocarbon dates from a sets of single dates from pithouses without the 428 379 range of both long-lived (e.g., feature charcoal, development of formal models that incorporate 429 380 internal rings of structural timbers) and short- other “prior” archaeological information will 430 381 lived samples (e.g., maize, twigs, sagebrush, not sufﬁce. Understanding the generational 431 382 external rings of structural timbers). Fremont scales of Fremont community formation requires 432 383 communities are often dated with a single sample these recent advances using Bayesian statistical 433 384 from one pithouse, such as charcoal from a analyses. 434 385 hearth (Spangler 2000; Truesdale 1993). These One challenge to Bayesian chronological ana- 435 386 ages are then calibrated to calendar years for lysis is the quality control of legacy radiocarbon 436 387 each site and compared with other sites to form ages—samples of limited or unknown context 437 388 our understanding of variability in Fremont com- and with large standard errors (Hamilton and 438 389 munity formation. Krus 2018). Legacy dates from Cub Creek are 439 390 Interpretations of calibrated radiocarbon age limited to seven AMS ages that Truesdale 440 391 distributions to understand archaeological site (1993) reported from speciﬁc pithouse contexts 441 392 histories can lead to misinterpretations caused and on wood from construction timbers and 442 393 by the statistical scatter and imprecision resulting hearth charcoal. Reported standard errors of 443 394 from old-wood problems (Dean 1978; Schiffer these ages range from 50 to 90 years (Table 1). 444 395 1986) and calibration effects (Bayliss et al. We added 34 ages from our 2016–2017 work, 445 396 2007; Bronk Ramsey 2009; Whittle and Bayliss which included new samples collected from 446 397 2007). For this reason, developing high- upland roasting features, maize macrofossils 447 398 precision chronologies requires formalized mod- from rockshelter surfaces, and twigs from the 448 399 els that constrain the inherent scatter in the cali- construction mud of a jacal masonry granary. 449 400 bration process. Solely calibrating a set of Upland roasting feature samples were bulk or 450 401 radiocarbon ages does not enable researchers to fragmentary charcoal collected from surface fea- 451 402 formally incorporate other archaeological infor- tures. We also added curated samples from Bre- 452 403 mation such as site type, diagnostic cultural ternitz’s 1964–1965 excavations. Curated 453 404 material, or stratigraphy into the production of samples were from provenienced pithouses and 454 405 calibrated age distributions. Considering these features collected at the time of excavation with 455 Judson Byrd Finley et al.] MULTIDECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND FREMONT FLORESCENCE 7

Table 1. Radiocarbon Samples and Context for the Cub Creek Archaeological District.

Lab Number Site Site Name Context Sample Type 14C Agea D-AMS-024928 42UN8679 Surface Feature Seed Modern D-AMS-024929 42UN8678 Surface Feature Charcoal 1804 ± 31 D-AMS-024930 42UN8678 Surface Feature Charcoal-Rich 634 ± 30 Sediment D-AMS-024931 USU2017-T2 Surface Feature Charcoal-Rich 1016 ± 31 Sediment D-AMS-024932 42UN8701 Surface Feature Charcoal 1308 ± 27 D-AMS-024933 42UN8699 Surface Feature Charcoal 1094 ± 29 D-AMS-024934 42UN8699 Surface Feature Charcoal 1751 ± 27 D-AMS-024935 42UN8695 Surface Feature Charcoal 1206 ± 35 D-AMS-024936 42UN8695 Surface Feature Charcoal 836 ± 33 D-AMS-024937 42UN239 Arrowhead Point Surface Feature Charcoal-Rich 802 ± 28 Campsite Sediment D-AMS-024938 42UN239 Arrowhead Point Surface Feature Charcoal 1679 ± 34 Campsite D-AMS-024939 42UN8674 Hoopes Shelter Surface Maize 1629 ± 34 UGAMS-33083 42UN8674 Hoopes Shelter Surface Maize 1700 ± 20 UCIAMS-198892 42UN225 Wagon Run Structure 1, Collared Fire Charcoal (Artemisia) 1050 ± 15 Pit UCIAMS-198893 42UN225 Wagon Run Pithouse 2, Hearth Fill Charcoal 1110 ± 15 UCIAMS-198894 42UN225 Wagon Run Structure 3 Charcoal (Artemisia) 1120 ± 15 UCIAMS-198895 42UN225 Wagon Run Pithouse 4 Maize Macrofossil 1040 ± 15 Beta 30450b 42UN225 Wagon Run Structure 4, Collared Hearth Charcoal 1340 ± 50 UCIAMS-198896 42UN236 Boundary Village Pithouse 1, Structural Wood (Juniperus) 1905 ± 15 Timber UCIAMS-198897 42UN236 Boundary Village Pithouse 5, Roof Material Charcoal 2820 ± 15 UCIAMS-198898 42UN236 Boundary Village Pithouse 9 Maize Macrofossil 1000 ± 15 UCIAMS-198899 42UN279 Burnt House Structure 1, Feature 12 Maize Macrofossil 1125 ± 15 UCIAMS-198900 42UN279 Burnt House Structure 4, Hearth 2, Fill Charcoal 1125 ± 15 Beta 33907b 42UN279 Burnt House Structure 1, Posthole, SW Wood 1920 ± 70 Corner UCIAMS-198901 42UN280 Dam Site Feature 1 Maize Macrofossil 1045 ± 15 UCIAMS-198902 42UN280 Dam Site Feature 3, Hearth Fill Charcoal 1210 ± 15 Beta 33908b 42UN280 Dam Site Feature 1, Collared Hearth Charcoal 1510 ± 90 UCIAMS-198903 42UN282 MacLeod Site Feature 6 Charcoal 1270 ± 15 UCIAMS-198904 42UN81 Wholeplace Village Pithouse 1, Beam Charcoal 1170 ± 15 UCIAMS-198905 42UN81 Wholeplace Village Pithouse 2, Hearth 1 Fill Charcoal 1615 ± 15 UCIAMS-198906 42UN81 Wholeplace Village Pithouse 4, Collared Fire Pit Charcoal 1130 ± 15 UCIAMS-198907 42UN81 Wholeplace Village Feature 12 Maize Macrofossil 1155 ± 15 Beta 30451b 42UN81 Wholeplace Village Structure 2 Charcoal 1310 ± 50 UCIAMS-198908 42UN7693 Roadcut Hamlet Feature A, Hearth Fill Charcoal 155 ± 15 UCIAMS-198909 42UN7693 Roadcut Hamlet Feature B, Hearth Fill Charcoal 105 ± 15 UCIAMS-198910 USU2017-T7 Elder Springs Shelter Surface Maize Macrofossil 1410 ± 15 UCIAMS-198911 USU2017-T7 Elder Springs Shelter Surface Maize Macrofossil 1190 ± 15 Beta 445425 42UN82 Cub Creek Granary #1 Jacal Masonry Twig 1000 ± 30 Beta 33906b 42UN83 Fremont Playhouse Feature 1, Posthole, NE Wood 1560 ± 60 Corner Beta 38589b 42UN1773 Corner Culvert Site Pithouse Charcoal 1530 ± 50 Beta 38588b 42UN1773 Corner Culvert Site Pithouse Charcoal 1550 ± 60 aConventional radiocarbon age (± 1σ error) reported in radiocarbon years before AD 1950. bSamples originally reported in Truesdale (1993). 8 AMERICAN ANTIQUITY [Vol. 0, No. 0, 2019

456 the intent of future radiocarbon dating. We prior- (Figure 2). The code for this model can be 504 457 itized maize macrofossils, hearth charcoal, and found in Supplemental Information. 505 458 the outer rings of construction timbers in that 506 459 order to reduce interpretive error between target Tree-Ring-Based Precipitation Reconstruction 460 and dated events. Multi-millennial-length tree-ring chronologies 507 can provide relatively localized records of envir- 508 onmental variability at annual resolution. Here, 509 461 Building the Cub Creek Age Model we reconstruct precipitation for the last 2,115 510 462 We developed our Bayesian age model for the years using the previously published reconstruc- 511 463 Cub Creek Fremont using OxCal v4.3 (Bronk tion from Harmon Canyon (Knight et al. 2010), a 512 464 Ramsey 2009). Calibrated dates within the tributary of Nine Mile Canyon in the West Tava- 513 465 model were produced using the IntCal13 calibra- puts Plateau, and a newly developed Bristlecone 514 466 tion curve (Reimer et al. 2013). The model struc- pine chronology from the Fish Lake Plateau area 515 467 ture is defined in Figure 2. The brackets in of central Utah. We chose annual precipitation 516 468 Figure 2 denote the structure of the model, and over a water year (previous August to current 517 469 the first terms (e.g., Phase, Sequence, Bound- July) to reflect environmental conditions that 518 470 ary, After) denote the OxCal Command Query could control agricultural development. A water- 519 471 Language 2 that are the specific algorithms year index integrates previous winter snowpack 520 472 employed to produce the model (OxCal CQL2 effects on spring soil moisture with both spring 521 473 terms listed in bold). The model produces 68% rain and monsoon rain that might occur during 522 474 and 95% posterior density estimates for the para- the growing season. Tree-ring-based climate 523 475 meters defined by the model structure. These reconstructions require instrumental climate 524 476 posterior density estimates are quoted in italics data against which to calibrate. Because there 525 477 and rounded to five years, following the protocol are no long-term climatic data collected within 526 478 established by Bayliss (2015). Dinosaur National Monument, we used monthly 527 479 A central challenge in the development of the precipitation at 4 km resolution from the 528 480 model was incorporating legacy dates from Parameter-elevation Regressions on an Inde- 529 481 Truesdale (1993) on charcoal samples from pendent Slopes Model (PRISM Climate Group 530 482 unspecified species and unspecified wood sam- 2018) dataset. Monthly data were cumulated 531 483 ples (e.g., “structural timber”) that have larger into water-year total data by summing over the 532 484 standard errors, with our dates on unspecified previous August through current July water 533 485 charcoal and short-lived samples, that have year, a period that best captures the peak in cool- 534 486 much smaller standard errors. Due to this likely season precipitation delivery and that includes 535 487 inbuilt age problem with many of our samples, spring rainfall before entering into the mid- 536 488 we included all charcoal and wood samples in summer drought period (starting approximately 537 489 the model as termini post quos, which means in July) before late-summer American monsoon- 538 490 that we model each of these samples as taking derived rainfall materializes in August. To 539 491 place during a time before the final deposition extend the record of growing-season rainfall for 540 492 of the sample. We do this using the After com- a period of >2,000 years, we limited the suite 541 493 mand in OxCal (Figure 2). of potential predictor variables to those that had 542 494 Our central aim is to produce a model that will sufficient expressed population signal (EPS, 543 495 provide highest posterior density (hpd) estimates >0.85; Wigley 1984). Therefore, we considered 544 496 for the start and end Boundaries of both the both regional tree-ring chronologies that were 545 497 Upland and Lowland Fremont occupations in previously published and those that were cur- 546 498 Cub Creek that can be compared to our rently under development. 547 499 tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction. We Tree-Ring Sampling and Preparation. Incre- 548 500 therefore developed an overlapping Phase ment cores and cross-sections were collected 549 501 model for the Fremont uplands and lowlands at from low-elevation, dry sites with skeletal soils, 550 502 Cub Creek. Within each upland and lowland where the presumption was that precipitation 551 503 Phase, we developed a Phase for each site drives growth increment. Increment cores were 552 Fig. 2 - Colour online, Colour in print usnBr ilye al.] et Finley Byrd Judson iue2 g oe utpo oprn h u re padadCbCekLwadsequences. Lowland Creek Cub and Upland Creek Cub the comparing multiplot model Age 2. Figure UTDCDLCIAEVRAIIYADFEOTFLORESCENCE FREMONT AND VARIABILITY CLIMATE MULTIDECADAL 9 10 AMERICAN ANTIQUITY [Vol. 0, No. 0, 2019

553 mounted to accentuate the transverse section and independent variables. We also explored the 603 554 sanded with progressively finer grades of sand- use of t + 1 and t - 1 lags on precipitation data, 604 555 paper. Cores were cross-dated using the marker but neither contributed to any additional explan- 605 556 year method and verified using the program ation of variance. Linear regression model 606 557 COFECHA (Holmes 1983). Chronologies were assumptions were evaluated by inspection of 607 558 built by detrending individual series using a residual plots to ensure that there was no pattern 608 559 very flexible Friedman filter. Autoregressive in error variance. Normality of model residuals 609 560 modeling was applied to remove any autocorrel- was evaluated graphically by examining a 610 561 ation before series were averaged with a robust histogram and tested statistically using the 611 562 method in the program Arstan (Cook 1985). Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. An autocorrelation 612 563 We ultimately chose two chronologies for the function of the residuals was examined visually, 613 564 precipitation reconstruction in the study, includ- and the Durbin–Watson D statistic was used to 614 565 ing one unpublished and one previously pub- evaluate the assumption of independence in the 615 566 lished study (Knight et al. 2010; Table 2). predictor variable (Savin and White 1977). Pear- 616 567 Tree-Ring Response to Climate. Ring-width son’s correlation coefficient (r), the coefficient of 617 568 response to historical climate variability was determination (R2), and adjusted coefficient of 618 569 examined for the tree-ring chronologies using a determination (adj. R2) were used to evaluate 619 570 general response function analysis in the treeclim model skill. We also calculated root-mean 620 571 package (Zang and Biondi 2015) in the R statis- squared-error (RMSE) from the model as an indi- 621 572 tical environment (Bunn 2008), following a sea- cator of variability in the reconstruction. 622 573 sonal correlation approach (Meko et al. 2011). Model Calibration and Verification. Split 623 574 Monthly precipitation and maximum temperatures calibration/verification was performed in two 624 575 from the PRISM dataset for the period AD 1895– ways: (1) by splitting the period of historical 625 576 2010 were used to conduct bootstrapped correl- record in half and building independent linear 626 577 ation function analysis showing that both sites models for the early (1920–1962) and late 627 578 exhibit pronounced response to growing season (1963–2005) periods, and then reversing the 628 579 precipitation (maximum response to a 12-month time periods; and (2) by splitting the historical 629 580 cumulative growing season ending in June and/ record into even and odd years and repeating 630 581 or August), which suggested that the chronologies independent model building, then reversing and 631 582 were appropriate to reconstruct growing season repeating. The reduction of error (RE), an indica- 632 583 precipitation. Moving response function windows tor of skill compared to the calibration-period 633 584 were calculated for 30-year periods over the histor- mean, and the coefficient of efficiency (CE), an 634 585 ical data, and they indicated that the response to indicator of skill compared to the verification- 635 586 precipitation had temporal fidelity. period mean, were used to assess the model 636 587 Precipitation Reconstruction. To reconstruct and calculated using equations from Cook and 637 588 water-year precipitation for Dinosaur National colleagues (1999). The ability of the model to 638 589 Monument, we carefully examined the PRISM- reproduce the mean and variance of the instru- 639 590 derived data and truncated the earliest years mental data was assumed if values of RE and 640 591 due to insufficient station data available to accur- CE were greater than 0 (Fritts 1976). We also 641 592 ately model the earliest precipitation records (see conducted a sign test to evaluate the fidelity of 642 593 Knight et al. 2010). We ultimately settled on the year-to-year changes in the reconstructed pre- 643 594 period 1920–2005 since 2005 is the latest calen- cipitation to the tree-ring predictors (Fritts 1976). 644 595 dar year in the Harmon Canyon chronology Precipitation Variability Analyses. While 645 596 (Table 2), yielding 86 years for statistical ana- year-to-year rainfall can be quite variable in the 646 597 lysis. The water-year precipitation exhibited no region, lower-frequency changes in the amount 647 598 significant autocorrelation. A reconstruction of precipitation likely cued social response to pre- 648 599 model for August–July water-year precipitation cipitation due to the effects on maize yields. There- 649 600 was built using multiple linear regressions with fore, we tested the precipitation reconstruction for 650 601 water-year precipitation as the dependent vari- the presence of multidecadal regimes by assessing 651 602 able and the two tree-ring chronologies as the spectral properties of the annual precipitation 652 Judson Byrd Finley et al.] MULTIDECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND FREMONT FLORESCENCE 11

Table 2. Chronology Statistics for the Two Predictors of Dinosaur National Monument Precipitation.

Interseries Average Mean #Trees/ Mean Year EPS Site Species Correlation Sensitivity Cores Length >0.85 Harmon Douglas ﬁr 0.853 0.482 59/74 480 −217 Canyona Red Canyon Bristlecone 0.742 0.386 60/114 668 −114 pine aKnight and others (2010), International Tree-Ring Data Bank contribution ut530. All tree-ring data are available for download from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/tree-ring).

653 time-series using a continuous wavelet transform Upland and Lowland Fremont sites in Cub 689 654 in the dplR package in R (Bunn 2008). The wave- Creek, as well as the overall span of each 690 655 let transforms a time-series from the time domain (Figure 3; Table 3). The start of the Cub Creek 691 656 to a time-frequency space that can indicate inter- Uplands is estimated to have occurred from cal 692 657 mittent periodicities over time (Grinsted et al. 900 BC to AD 395 (95.4% probability), most 693 658 2004). The ability to visualize significant power probably from cal AD 100 to 380 (68.2% prob- 694 659 of precipitation variability in the frequency domain ability). The end of the Cub Creek Uplands is 695 660 at various points in time is crucial for our assess- estimated to have occurred from cal AD 1285 696 661 ment of Fremont adaptive strategies. The wavelet to 2295 (95.4% probability), most probably 697 662 transform was calculated under an assumption of from cal AD 1300 to 1585 (68.2% probability). 698 663 red noise, and significance levels were interpreted The total span of the Uplands lasted from about 699 664 at p = 0.05. Because the analysis was padded with 930 to 2330 years (95.4% probability), most 700 665 zeros to prevent wraparound effects, care must be probably 980 to 1515 years (68.2% probability). 701 666 taken not to interpret outside the cone of influence. The start of occupation in the Cub Creek Low- 702 667 To reflect generational-scale perceptions of lands, and therefore the start of Fremont pithouse 703 668 precipitation variability, we also computed a villages, occurred from cal AD 840 to 960 704 669 21-year running standard deviation on the annual (95.4% probability). The end of the Lowlands 705 670 reconstruction. This time period reflects gener- occupation, and therefore the end of Fremont pit- 706 671 ational memory of precipitation conditions con- house villages, occurred from cal AD 995 to 707 672 sistent with chronological reconstructions as 1080 (95.4% probability). The overall span of 708 673 suggested by Whittle and Bayliss (2007). Signifi- the pithouse occupation lasted from 55 to 220 709 674 cant shifts in mean of the 21-year running vari- years (95.4% probability). 710 675 ation were tested using a changepoint analysis 676 using the changepoint library in R (Killick and Precipitation Reconstruction Results 711 677 Eckley 2014). A linear computational cost A multiple linear regression model that used an 712 678 fi approach was applied to indicate signi cant unpublished Bristlecone pine residual chron- 713 679 changes in mean (Killick et al. 2012). This ology and a previously published Douglas fir 714 680 ’ approach uses log-likelihood (Akaike s Informa- residual chronology (Table 2) as predictors 715 681 tion Criterion) to indicate likely shifts, and we resulted in an overall reconstruction model that 716 682 used a minimum segment length of 200 years to accounted for 55.4% of the variation in historical 717 683 minimize false positive changepoints in the Dinosaur National Monument, August–July 718 684 21-year time series. water-year precipitation for the period 1920– 719 2005. Inspection of residual plots using the Kol- 720 – 721 685 Results mogorov Smirnov test indicated that the residuals were normally distributed ( p < 0.0001). 722 An autocorrelation function plot of the residuals 723 686 Cub Creek Age Model showed no significant first-order autocorrelation, 724 687 The Bayesian model successfully provides 68% and the Durbin-Watson test statistic fell well 725 688 and 95% hpd ranges for the start and end of the above the threshold to fail to reject the null 726 12 AMERICAN ANTIQUITY [Vol. 0, No. 0, 2019 Fig. 3 - Colour online, B/W in print

Figure 3. Modeled 95% posterior probability density functions for the start, end, and span of the Cub Creek Upland and Cub Creek Lowland sequences.

727 hypothesis of no autocorrelation at the alpha = skill for all the calibration, verification, and full 740 728 0.01 level, which indicated that residuals were model periods (Table 4). The sign test was sig- 741 729 normal and validated that the predictor variables nificant at the 0.01 level, which indicated that 742 730 were independent. Calibration and verification 78% of the time, year-to-year changes in the dir- 743 731 statistics indicated strong fidelity between predic- ection of predicted flow followed that of the 744 732 tors and predictand for both the early and late instrumental data, while 22% of the time, they 745 733 model data split and for the even-odd year data did not (Table 4). 746 734 split (Table 4). Calibrating on the early period Fifty-year and 100-year splines fit through the 747 735 resulted in slightly less predictive skill than cali- annual reconstruction highlighted the extreme 748 736 brating on the later period with the early/late cali- variability found in dry lowland environments 749 737 bration and was slightly better between even and of the western United States over approximately 750 738 odd (Table 4). However, RE and CE statistics the past 2,000 years (Figure 4a). There were 751 739 were all well above 0, which indicates predictive marked periods of longer-term increases and 752 decreases in water-year precipitation. Huge 753 droughts centered on AD 0, 100, 200, 500, 754 Table 3. Posterior Probability Densities of the Primary 1250, and 1600 indicate periods of 755 Model. well-below-average precipitation. The 21-year 756 Highest Posterior Density running variation of the reconstruction revealed 757 (95.4% Probability) wide fluctuations in the inherent multidecadal 758 759 Start Cub Creek Uplands 900 BC–AD 395 precipitation variability, with the highest peak End Cub Creek Uplands AD 1285–2295 at AD 300, followed by AD 1500, early AD 760 Span Cub Creek Uplands 930–2,330 years 1600s and 1300, then AD 900 and 100 761 Start Cub Creek Lowlands AD 840–960 (Figure 4b). The changepoint analyses 762 – End Cub Creek Lowlands AD 995 1080 (Figure 4b; Table 5) indicated the first three shifts 763 Span Cub Creek Lowlands 55–220 years in mean precipitation occurred early in AD 100, 764 Judson Byrd Finley et al.] MULTIDECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND FREMONT FLORESCENCE 13

Table 4. Model Skill and Calibration Veriﬁcation Statistics for the Dinosaur National Monument Precipitation Reconstruction.

R2 Adj. R2 RE CE Sign Test RMSE Calibrate (1950–1981) 0.531 0.508 0.524 0.442 Calibrate (1982–2012) 0.620 0.601 0.471 0.321 Calibrate (even years) 0.564 0.542 0.558 0.533 Calibrate (odd years) 0.576 0.555 0.526 0.488 Full model 0.565 0.554 67/19a 2.50 Note: (R2) = coefficient of determination, (adj. R2) coefficient of determination adjusted for degrees of freedom, RE = reduction of error statistic, CE = coefficient of efficiency statistic, RMSE = root mean-squared error. Full model: 7.2188 + 4.375 × HAR + 6.8263 × RCB. aSign Test significant at the alpha <0.01 level (Fritts 1976).

765 324, and 539. Somewhere around AD 1000, from the macrofossil and may reflect an inbuilt 800 766 mean precipitation dropped (Table 5). The wave- age. The appearance of maize agriculture in 801 767 let power spectra revealed a strong pattern of Cub Creek corresponds with the highest mea- 802 768 annual variability (2–8 years) that appeared AD sured generational-scale precipitation variability 803 769 100–300, 500–1000, 1200–1700, and then in over the last 2000 years (Figure 4b). In other 804 770 the 1800s (Figure 4c). Multidecadal variability words, transitional forager-farmers began culti- 805 771 less than approximately 30 years was largely vating maize at a time when year-to-year precipi- 806 772 lacking from the reconstruction but appeared tation was least predictable. Although our 807 773 AD 200, 600, 1000, and 1300–1500. Longer- specific knowledge of the resource base in the 808 774 term decadal variability on the order of 30-plus centuries leading up to this moment remains 809 775 years was also apparent circa AD 0–750 before unknown, as Barlow (2002) suggests, declining 810 776 it disappeared abruptly, and it returned circa environmental productivity may have been a 811 777 AD 1050. These specific moments where pre- key factor in the initial adoption of maize agricul- 812 778 cipitation mean and multidecadal variability ture as diet breadths increased. Small garden 813 779 shift were significantly critical to year-to-year plots located in the well-protected, spring-fed 814 780 and decade-to-decade patterns in subsistence box canyons along the base of Split Mountain 815 781 decisions that Fremont forager-farmers would were a low-investment agricultural strategy that 816 782 have faced. supplemented a foraged diet. These first farmers, 817 however, could not simply plant and walk 818 — 819 783 Fremont Community Formation in Cub away some minimal investment in weeding, 820 784 Creek pest control, and garden tending was required to ensure continuity in a seed corn supply (Free- 821 man 2012). These are the same decisions 822 785 Integrating Archaeological and Paleoecological that transitional forager-farmers made time and 823 786 Records again in many global settings, although our 824 787 Radiocarbon dating, Bayesian chronological data show that this decision happened within a 825 788 modeling, and reconstructed precipitation pro- context of extreme year-to-year precipitation 826 789 vide a coherent framework within which we variability. 827 790 reconstruct the development of the Cub Creek Once maize agriculture was adopted in Cub 828 791 Fremont community. We find remarkable corres- Creek, the Fremont residents created a low-level 829 792 pondence between key archaeological and envir- horticultural system that focused settlement on 830 793 onmental events. Maize agriculture began at Cub the uplands at the base of Split Mountain and 831 794 Creek circa AD 300 with two direct ages on sep- above Cub Creek. Runoff from Split Mountain 832 795 arate maize macrofossils from an upland rock- recharged springs and created numerous oppor- 833 796 shelter (Table 1). These ages correspond with tunities for garden plots along its base. 834 797 the earliest reported maize from Steinaker Gap The sandstone flatirons and fins surrounding 835 798 (Talbot and Richens 1996), although the Steina- the uplift provided protected campsites in well- 836 799 ker Gap age is from charcoal rather than directly drained sand sheets and dunes populated by 837 Fig. 4 - Colour online, Colour in print 14 ainrcntuto;dr ie niaesigni indicate lines in dark analysis reconstruction; changepoint tation with signi reconstruction are entire lines the horizontal over red; variability precipitation and 21-year multidecadal accentuate (b) to variability; splines smoothing centennial cubic BC 100-year and (114 50-year periods with reconstruction precipitation, water-year full Monument (a) charts: reconstruction Precipitation 4. Figure fi atcagsi en(t9%con 95% (at mean in changes cant fi MRCNANTIQUITY AMERICAN atvraiiya h 5 con 95% the at variability cant fi ec) c aee nlssoe h nieprecipi- entire the over analysis wavelet (c) dence); fi ec level. dence – D20)frDnsu National Dinosaur for 2005) AD Vl ,N.0 2019 0, No. 0, [Vol. Judson Byrd Finley et al.] MULTIDECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND FREMONT FLORESCENCE 15

Table 5. Changepoint Dates from 21-Year Precipitation in infrastructure—pithouses, storage features, 875 Variability. ground stone, pottery, and locally adapted land- 876 races of maize—all elements of a classic Uinta Fre- 877 Mean mont strategy. Although an emergent social 878 Year (AD) Precipitation (cm) hierarchy is difficult to demonstrate in the Fremont 879 100 7.57 world writ large (Janetski 2002), the Cub Creek 880 324 9.47 village phase may have also corresponded with 881 539 5.55 the creation of elaborate rock art galleries depicting 882 928 8.54 883 1217 6.86 the portraits of local village leaders. Bone pen- 1455 9.99 dants illustrated in the portraits were common in 884 1656 11.36 Cub Creek pithouses and as a cache in one Whole- 885 place Village storage pit (Birkedal and Hayden 886 1970), indicating that emergent leadership pos- 887 838 mixed pinyon-juniper woodland that would have sibly accompanied subsistence intensification. 888 839 been a reliable source of foraged foods while pro- Just as surprising as the rapid appearance of 889 840 viding access to upland resources. The redundant the Cub Creek village phase was its swift aban- 890 841 record of >120 features replete with fire-cracked donment around AD 1050. Posterior probabil- 891 842 rock scatters, expedient ground stone technol- ities of the radiocarbon age model indicate that 892 843 ogy, and a notable absence of pottery inform the phase ending spans 85 years (Table 3)from 893 844 our preliminary interpretation that these sites AD 995 to AD 1080. This event corresponds 894 845 served as stone boiling features to process with the return of the dominant 30-plus-year pre- 895 846 maize and other foraged foods. We suggest that cipitation variability pattern that characterized 896 847 this horticultural system was designed to offset the reconstruction. An important feature of the 897 848 the effects of multidecadal droughts that the age model is that the upland strategy continued 898 849 wavelet analysis indicates happened with a peri- as a viable option through the pithouse occupa- 899 850 odicity of 30-plus years (Figure 4c). Specifically, tion. The return of predictable variability at AD 900 851 the AD 500–542 event had little impact on the 1050, combined with a reduction in mean pre- 901 852 Cub Creek community. Interestingly, coming cipitation, led the Cub Creek residents to quickly 902 853 out of the AD 500–542 drought, mean precipita- abandon the lowland pithouse hamlets in favor of 903 854 tion increased for roughly the next 400 years the upland settlement pattern. This apparently 904 855 (Figure 4b). Regardless, as our age model stable strategy encompassed the three key events 905 856 shows, the upland occupation continued uninter- of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), and 906 857 rupted for the duration of the 1,000-year commu- like the AD 500–542 event, the MCA had no 907 858 nity history (AD 300–1300). apparent impact on the Cub Creek community. 908 859 A surprising feature of the Cub Creek age We suggest that even though environmental con- 909 860 model is the narrow occupation range of the ditions tipped local communities into a phase of 910 861 lowland pithouses, which is constrained to the cen- economic intensification that may have included 911 862 turies between AD 840 and AD 1080 (Figure 3). incipient social stratification, the Cub Creek 912 863 Most importantly, the Cub Creek village phase community may have never moved far enough 913 864 corresponds to the window when the dominant from a stable, low-level foraging-farming econ- 914 865 pattern in 30-plus-year multidecadal precipitation omy to quickly move back to that strategy as 915 866 variability became quiescent (Figure 4c). Inside required. This socioeconomic flexibility, more 916 867 that period, mean generational-scale precipitation than anything else, is the defining feature of the 917 868 was more predictable from year to year and decade Fremont lifeway (Madsen and Simms 1998). 918 869 to decade with an immediate consequence of 919 870 increased maize yields. What had been a system Operationalizing Fremont Behavioral 920 871 designed to offset subsistence shortfalls structured Perspectives 872 by regular, multidecadal droughts suddenly A major objective of our study has been to fulfill 921 873 became one of economic intensification. This the aims of Madsen and Simms’s(1998)Fre- 922 874 would have been accompanied by an investment mont behavioral perspective by focusing on the 923 16 AMERICAN ANTIQUITY [Vol. 0, No. 0, 2019

924 dynamics of life as conceptualized in their mod- environmental and economic in scope. Matrix 974 925 els of behavioral options, matrix modification, modification also explains the 300-year flores- 975 926 symbiosis, and switching strategies. Four key cence of the Cub Creek village because the 976 927 historical factors underlie these models: (1) the absence of predictable droughts and the develop- 977 928 forager-farmer transition cannot be explained ment of more regular precipitation were the cir- 978 929 by the interaction of foragers and farmers cumstances that changed the context of 979 930 alone—the underlying resource base must be selection, which resulted in an apparent phase 980 931 considered, (2) the introduction of maize horti- of economic intensification. Again, we demon- 981 932 culture changed Fremont lifeways no matter strate that these contexts of selection can be oper- 982 933 their choice to adopt domesticates or continue a ationalized on the order of multidecadal, or 983 934 foraging pattern, (3) the impact of horticulture generational, timescales. 984 935 on foraging societies was not unidirectional— We find the concepts of symbiosis and 985 936 the presence of foraging populations likewise switching strategies more difficult to operational- 986 937 conditioned the success of farmers, and (4) con- ize within the context of our analysis. Madsen 987 938 texts of selection ultimately defined cultural vari- and Simms (1998:285) suggest that symbiosis 988 939 ability. As Simms (2008:189) later suggested, is closely related to matrix modification where 989 940 these dynamics played out over the lifetime of foraging and farming populations become mutu- 990 941 individuals or across generations. We demon- ally dependent as individuals move between life- 991 942 strate that these dynamics can be realized through ways, which is consistent with the idea of 992 943 development of robust and congruent archaeo- residential cycling observed among Great Salt 993 944 logical and environmental chronologies that Lake Fremont communities (Coltrain and Leavitt 994 945 combine Bayesian posterior density estimates 2002). Switching strategies, similarly, refers to 995 946 with a multidecadal precipitation reconstruction. residential cycling between foraging and farming 996 947 In other words, multidecadal environmental vari- lifeways, but the key difference is the ease with 997 948 ability is the context of selection for cultural vari- which individuals or groups can move into or 998 949 ability during the foraging-farming transition. out of one or the other strategy. For example, 999 950 For example, the adoption of maize horticulture it may have been easier to switch strategies dur- 1000 951 in Cub Creek at approximately AD 300, corre- ing the upland phase at Cub Creek compared to 1001 952 sponding with peak precipitation variability, the lowland village phase due to the relative 1002 953 likely occurred within a context of selection investment in maize horticulture. Low-level 1003 954 where returns on foraged foods declined below investment in maize horticulture allowed main- 1004 955 a critical threshold. In this situation, maize horti- tenance of more permeable boundaries, keeping 1005 956 culture was a behavioral option that leveled eco- mobility as a viable alternative strategy, whereas 1006 957 nomic variability across years and decades—the economic intensification required a more stable 1007 958 time scale of human generations. Following the residential strategy focused on maize processing 1008 959 adoption of maize horticulture, the Cub Creek and storage. We suggest that the lowland strategy 1009 960 community developed a pattern of stable upland was at odds with the greater mobility afforded by 1010 961 occupation that remained in place for the next the upland strategy, which was one reason for its 1011 962 1,000 years. Our reconstruction suggests that quick abandonment and the switch back to the 1012 963 the upland strategy was a solution to resource upland strategy at AD 1050 as the predictable 1013 964 shortfalls introduced by the predictable 30- 30-plus-year precipitation regime—including 1014 965 plus-year precipitation variability pattern. The the events of the MCA—returned to the northern 1015 966 upland strategy is consistent with the idea of Uinta Basin. 1016 967 matrix modification, which refers to changes in Finally, Madsen and Simms (1998:286) cau- 1017 968 the context of selection for foragers brought tion that symbiosis and switching strategies 1018 969 about by the introduction of farming. As Madsen should not be an invitation to falsely dichotomize 1019 970 and Simms suggested (1998:283) matrix modifi- foragers and farmers in the archaeological record 1020 971 cation is less about the spread and style of traits since neither strategy is mutually exclusive. We 1021 972 and more about the circumstances that shaped suggest that this is the key problem underlying 1022 973 behavior. These circumstances were both Spangler’s(2000) Uinta adaptation, which— 1023 Judson Byrd Finley et al.] MULTIDECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND FREMONT FLORESCENCE 17

1024 coupled with a coarse-grained chronology based chronologies without considering other archaeo- 1072 1025 on unmodeled radiocarbon ages, including the logical information have produced ages that are 1073 1026 problematic dates from Truesdale’s(1993) Cub too old for the events that they seek to under- 1074 1027 Creek work—produces a framework of occupa- stand. Traditional chronologies also overestimate 1075 1028 tion and abandonment that our results do not rep- the span of Fremont community formation. This 1076 1029 licate. Based on these findings, we urge caution has generated dichotomous models for Fremont 1077 1030 with Spangler’s(2000) framework for Uinta societies that are unable to capture the gener- 1078 1031 Basin culture history. Specifically, whereas ational scales at the heart of Fremont variability. 1079 1032 Spangler (2000) suggested Uinta Fremont vil- Capturing generational scales requires emphasis 1080 1033 lage florescence prior to AD 750 and abandon- on higher-precision chronologies based on short- 1081 1034 ment of the northern Uinta Basin after AD lived samples, small standard errors, the use of 1082 1035 1000, we find that Cub Creek village florescence outlier models minimizing the impact of inbuilt 1083 1036 occurred from AD 840 to AD 1080, and there is age samples, and formal models enabling other 1084 1037 no evidence for regional abandonment. Further- prior archaeological information needs to be 1085 1038 more, in a summed probability distribution of taken into account. Formal Bayesian models pro- 1086 1039 more than 500 radiocarbon ages, including vide posterior probability densities that can then 1087 1040 those Spangler (2000, 2002) used in his recon- be integrated into high-resolution environmental 1088 1041 struction, Hora-Cook (2018) identified peak constructions like the one we presented here. 1089 1042 occupational intensity of the Uinta Basin at AD Rather than understanding the Uinta Basin Fre- 1090 1043 750–1050, coincident with the Cub Creek village mont in terms of a dichotomous abandonment 1091 1044 florescence. This reconstruction is more in keep- model (Spangler 2000) that fails to provide a 1092 1045 ing with Spangler’s(2002)refined hypothesis of basis for building knowledge about Fremont vari- 1093 1046 Uinta Basin population shift rather than regional ability, our higher-precision approach enables the 1094 1047 abandonment. We suggest that our model of components of Fremont lifeways to be broken 1095 1048 Uinta Fremont community formation can be down in order to understand how they worked 1096 1049 tested at other Fremont communities across the together to establish the distinct variability of Fre- 1097 1050 northern Uinta Basin, and that Madsen and mont forager-farmer societies within dynamic 1098 1051 Simms’s(1998) behavioral perspectives will Late Holocene environments in the semiarid 1099 1052 continue to highlight the dynamics of the Fre- Desert West. This window into the foraging- 1100 1053 mont foraging-farming transition at the edge of farming transition is one of the main contribu- 1101 1054 maize horticulture in western North America. tions we can make through close analysis of the 1102 Fremont archaeological record. 1103 1055 Conclusion Acknowledgments. Funding for the Cub Creek research was 1104 1056 Variability has been repeatedly mentioned as one provided by Dinosaur National Monument and the Utah State 1105 1057 of the hallmarks of Fremont societies (Madsen University College of Humanities and Social Sciences. Lisa 1106 1107 1058 and Simms 1998; Simms 2008). This variability Baldwin, Chief of Resource Stewardship and Science at Dinosaur National Monument, gave us the latitude to explore 1108 1059 provides unique perspectives not only on the Cub Creek as we saw fit. Trista Schiele helped prepare the 1109 1060 diverse processes through which foragers incor- maps included here. Chantel Saban and Maria Spicer- 1110 1061 porated domesticates into their lifeways but Escalante translated our abstract into Spanish. Andrew 1111 1062 also the processes through which foragers aban- McAllister and Mike Bianchini are essential members of 1112 1113 1063 doned the use of domesticates. Embedded within the team. We thank everyone involved in developing this project. This article was prepared in part by an employee of the 1114 1064 these processes are the development of pithouse U.S. Forest Service as part of official duties and is therefore 1115 1065 hamlets and villages and the development of in the public domain. Our research is part of the Past Global 1116 1066 incipient heterarchies controlled by aggrandizing Changes (PAGES) PalEOclimate and the Peopling of the 1117 1067 leaders—both men and women (Simms 2008). Earth (PEOPLE3K) network. This article is dedicated to the 1118 – 1119 1068 These processes played out on generational memory of Peter J. Meheringer Jr. (1933 2019), Professor Emeritus of Anthropology at Washington State University. 1120 1069 scales (Simms 2008). In this paper, we argue 1070 that traditional approaches to Fremont chronolo- Data Availability Statement. The DOI for a Zenodo open 1121 1071 gies that rely on inbuilt age samples and informal access file that includes all data and code used in the 1122 18 AMERICAN ANTIQUITY [Vol. 0, No. 0, 2019

1123 precipitation reconstructions is 10.5281/zenodo. 2656700. The Anthropology No. 2. University of Colorado Press, 1183 1124 data and code can be found at https://github.com/ericknrobin- Boulder. 1184 1125 son/precipitation-reconstruction-dinosaur. Burton, Robert J. 1185 1970 Jones Hole: Sites 42UN9 and 42UN13. In Archaeo- 1186 logical Excavations in Dinosaur National Monument, 1187 1126 Supplemental Information. For supplemental information Colorado-Utah, 1964–1965, edited by David A. Breter- 1188 1127 accompanying this article, including code for the Bayesian nitz, pp. 152–157. University of Colorado Press, 1189 1128 model, visit https://doi.org/10.1017/aaq.2019.79. Boulder. 1190 Coltrain, Joan Brenner, and Steven W. Leavitt 1191 2002 Climate and Diet in Fremont Prehistory: Economic 1192 Variability and Abandonment of Maize Agriculture 1193 1129 References Cited in the Great Salt Lake Basin. American Antiquity 1194 67:453–485. 1195 1130 Ambler, John Richard Cook, Edward R. 1196 1131 1966 Caldwell Village and Fremont Prehistory. PhD dis- 1985 A Time Series Analysis Approach to Tree-Ring 1197 1132 sertation, Department of Anthropology, University of Standardization (Dendrochronology, Forestry, Dendro- 1198 1133 Colorado, Boulder. climatology, Autoregressive Process). University of Ari- 1199 1134 Barlow, K. Renee zona Press, Tucson. 1200 1135 2002 Predicting Maize Agriculture among the Fremont: Cook, Edward R., David M. Meko, David W. Stahle, and 1201 1136 An Economic Comparison of Farming and Foraging in Malcolm K. Cleaveland 1202 1137 the American Southwest. American Antiquity 67:65–88. 1999 Drought Reconstructions for the Continental United 1203 1138 Bayliss, Alex States. Journal of Climate 12:1145–1162. 1204 1139 2015 Quality in Bayesian Chronological Models in Creasman, Steven D., and Linda J. Scott 1205 1140 Archaeology. World Archaeology 47:677–700. 1987 Texas Creek Overlook: Evidence for Late Fremont 1206 1141 Bayliss, Alex, Christopher Bronk Ramsey, Johannes van der (Post A.D. 1200) Occupation in Northwest Colorado. 1207 1142 Plicht, and Alasdair Whittle Southwestern Lore 53(4):1–16. 1208 1143 2007 Bradshaw and Bayes: Towards a Timetable for the Dean, Jeffrey S. 1209 1144 Neolithic. Cambridge Archaeological Journal 17:1–28. 1978 Independent Dating in Archaeological Analysis. 1210 1145 Bayliss, Alex, Johannes van der Plicht, Christopher In Advances in Archaeological Method and Theory, 1211 1146 Bronk Ramsey, Gerry McCormac, Frances Healy, and Vol. 1, edited by Michael B. Schiffer, pp. 223–255. Aca- 1212 1147 Alasdair Whittle demic Press, New York. 1213 1148 2011 Towards Generational Time-Scales: The Quantita- Ellwood, Emily C., M. Paul Scott, William D. Lipe, 1214 1149 tive Interpretation of Archaeological Chronologies. In R. G. Matson, and John G. Jones 1215 1150 Gathering Time: Dating the Early Neolithic Enclosures 2013 Stone-Boiling Maize with Limestone: Experimental 1216 1151 of Southern Britain and Ireland, edited by Results and Implications for Nutrition among Se Utah 1217 1152 Alasdair Whittle, Frances Healy, and Alex Bayliss, pp. Preceramic Groups. Journal of Archaeological Science 1218 1153 17–59. Oxbow Books, Oxford. 40:35–44. 1219 1154 Biggs, Robert W. Freeman, Jacob 1220 1155 1970 Burnt House Village, 42UN118. In Archaeological 2012 Alternative Adaptive Regimes for Integrating For- 1221 1156 Excavations in Dinosaur National Monument, aging and Farming Activities. Journal of Archaeo- 1222 1157 Colorado-Utah, 1964–1965, edited by David logical Science 39:3008–3017. 1223 1158 A. Breternitz, pp. 55–73. University of Colorado Fritts, Harold C. 1224 1159 Press, Boulder. 1976 Tree Rings and Climate. Academic Press, London. 1225 1160 Birkedal, Terje G., and Brian D. Hayden Geib, Phil R. 1226 1161 1970 Wholeplace Village, 42UN57. In Archaeological 1996 Glen Canyon Revisited. University of Utah 1227 1162 Excavations in Dinosaur National Monument, Anthropological Papers No. 119. University of Utah 1228 1163 Colorado-Utah, 1964–1965, edited by David A. Breter- Press, Salt Lake City. 1229 1164 nitz, pp. 11–30. University of Colorado Press, Boulder. Gregson, Joe D., Dan J. Chure, and Douglas A. Sprinkel 1230 1165 Breternitz, David A. (editor) 2010 Geology and Paleontology of Dinosaur National 1231 1166 1970 Archaeological Excavations in Dinosaur National Monument, Utah-Colorado. In Geology of Utah’s 1232 1167 Monument, Colorado-Utah, 1964–1965. University of Parks and Monuments, 3rd ed, edited by Douglas A. 1233 1168 Colorado Press, Boulder. Sprinkel, Thomas C. Chidsey , Jr., and Paul B. Ander- 1234 1169 Bronk Ramsey, Christopher son, pp. 161–192. Publication 28. Utah Geological 1235 1170 2009 Bayesian Analysis of Radiocarbon Dates. Radiocar- Association, Salt Lake City. 1236 1171 bon 51:337–360. Grinsted, Aslak, John C. Moore, and Svetlana Jevrejeva 1237 1172 2017 OxCal v4.3.2. Electronic document, https:// 2004 Application of the Cross Wavelet Analysis 1238 1173 c14.arch.ox.ac.uk/oxcal.html. accessed July 24, 2019. Transform and Wavelet Coherence to Geophysical 1239 1174 Bunn, Andrew G. Time Series. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 1240 1175 2008 A Dendrochronology Program Library in R (dplR). 11:561–566. 1241 1176 Dendrochronologia 26:115–124. Gunnerson, James H. 1242 1177 Burgh, Robert F. 1969 The Fremont Culture: A Study in Culture Dynamics 1243 1178 1950 A Basketmaker House in Dinosaur National Monu- on the Northern Anasazi Frontier. University of Utah 1244 1179 ment. Tree-Ring Bulletin 16:19–20. Press, Salt Lake City. 1245 1180 Burgh, Robert F., and Charles R. Scoggin Hamilton, W. Derek, and Anthony M. Krus 1246 1181 1948 The Archaeology of Castle Park, Dinosaur National 2018 The Myths and Realities of Bayesian Chronological 1247 1182 Monument. University of Colorado Studies, Series in Modeling. American Antiquity 83:187–203. 1248 Judson Byrd Finley et al.] MULTIDECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND FREMONT FLORESCENCE 19

1249 Holmes, Richard L. Matson, R. G. 1315 1250 1983 Computer-Assisted Quality Control in Tree-Ring 1991 The Origins of Southwestern Agriculture. University 1316 1251 Dating and Measurement. Tree-Ring Bulletin 43:69–78. of Arizona Press, Tucson. 1317 1252 Hora-Cook, Elizabeth A. Meko, David M., Ramzi Touchan, and Kevin J. Anchukaitis 1318 1253 2018 Resource Competition among the Uinta Fremont. 2011 Seascorr: A Matlab Program for Identifying the 1319 1254 Master’s thesis; Department of Sociology, Social Seasonal Climate Signal in an Annual Tree-Ring Time 1320 1255 Work, and Anthropology; Utah State University, Logan. Series. Computers and Geosciences 37:1234–1241. 1321 1256 Janetski, Joel C. Montgomery, Henry 1322 1257 2002 Trade in Fremont Society: Contexts and Contrasts. 1894 Prehistoric Man in Utah. The Archaeologist 2 1323 1258 Journal of Anthropological Archaeology 21:344–370. (8):227–342. 1324 1259 Jennings, Jesse D. Morss, Noel 1325 1260 1978 Prehistory of Utah and the Eastern Great Basin. 1931 The Ancient Culture of the Fremont River in Utah. 1326 1261 Anthropological Papers No. 98. University of Utah Papers of the Peabody Museum of American Archae- 1327 1262 Press, Salt Lake City. ology and Ethnology 12(3). Harvard University, Cam- 1328 1263 Judd, Neil M. bridge, MA. 1329 1264 1926 Archeological Observations North of the Rio Color- PRISM Climate Group 1330 1265 ado. Bureau of American Ethnology Bulletin No. 82. 2018 PRISM Climate Data. Latitude: 40.5954, Latitude: 1331 1266 Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC. -109.0730. Electronic document, http:// 1325prism.ore- 1332 1267 Kidder, Alfred V. gonstate.edu/, accessed October 22, 2014. 1333 1268 1924 An Introduction to the Study of Southwestern Reimer, Paula J., Edouard Bard, Alex Bayliss, J. Warren 1334 1269 Archaeology. Yale University Press, New Haven, Beck, Paul G. Blackwell, Christopher Bronk Ramsey, 1335 1270 Connecticut. Caitlin E. Buck, Hai Cheng, R. Lawrence Edwards, 1336 1271 Killick, Rebecca, and Idris A. Eckley Michaeol Friedrich, Pieter M. Grootes, Thomas P. Guil- 1337 1272 2014 changepoint: An R Package for Changepoint Ana- derson, Haﬂidi Haﬂidason, Irka Hajdas, Christine Hatté, 1338 1273 lysis. Journal of Statistical Software 58(3):1–19. Timothy J. Heaton, Dirk L. Hoffmann, Alan G. Hogg, 1339 1274 DOI:10.18637/jss.v058.i03. Konrad A. Hughen, K. Felix Kaiser, Bernd Kromer, 1340 1275 Killick, Rebecca, Paul Fearnhead, and Idris A. Eckley Sturt W. Manning, Mu Niu, Ron W. Reimer, David A. 1341 1276 2012 Optimal Detection of Changepoints with a Linear Richards, E. Marian Scott, John R. Southon, Richard 1342 1277 Computational Cost. Journal of the American Statistical A. Staff, Christian S.M. Turney, and Johannes van der 1343 1278 Association 107:1590–1598. Plicht 1344 1279 Knight, Troy A., David M. Meko, and Christopher H. Baisan 2013 IntCal13 and Marine13 Radiocarbon Age Calibra- 1345 1280 2010 A Bimillennial-Length Tree-Ring Reconstruction of tion Curves 0–50,000 Years cal B.P. Radiocarbon 1346 1281 Precipitation for the Tavaputs Plateau, Northeastern 55:1869–1887. 1347 1282 Utah. Quaternary Research 73:107–117. Roberts, Heidi (editor) 1348 1283 Leach, Larry L. 2018 The Jackson Flat Archaeological Project. U.S. 1349 1284 1966 The Archaeology of Boundary Village. Anthropo- Army Corp of Engineers, Sacramento, California. 1350 1285 logical Papers No. 83. University of Utah Press, Salt Savin, N. E., and Kenneth J. White 1351 1286 Lake City. 1977 The Durbin-Watson Test for Serial Correlation with 1352 1287 1970a Archaeological Investigations at Deluge Shelter Extreme Sample Sizes or Many Regressors. Econome- 1353 1288 in Dinosaur National Monument. PhD dissertation, trica 45:1989–1996. 1354 1289 Department of Anthropology, University of Colorado, Schiffer, Michael B. 1355 1290 Boulder. 1986 Radiocarbon Dating and the “Old Wood” Problem: 1356 1291 1970b Swelter Shelter, 42UN40. In Archaeological Exca- The Case of the Hohokam Chronology. JournalofArchae- 1357 1292 vations in Dinosaur National Monument, Colorado- ological Science 13:13–30. 1358 1293 Utah, 1964–1965, edited by David A. Breternitz, pp. Sheets, Payson D. 1359 1294 127–135. University of Colorado Press, Boulder. 1969 The Archaeology of the Ely Creek Caves, Dinosaur 1360 1295 Lister, Robert H. National Monument. Master’s thesis, Department of 1361 1296 1951 Excavations at Hells Midden, Dinosaur National Anthropology, University of Colorado, Boulder. 1362 1297 Monument. University of Colorado Studies, Series in Simms, Steven R. 1363 1298 Anthropology No. 3. University of Colorado Press, 2008 Ancient Peoples of the Great Basin and Colorado 1364 1299 Boulder. Plateau. Left Coast Press, Walnut Creek, California. 1365 1300 Madsen, David A., and Steven R. Simms Spangler, Jerry D. 1366 1301 1998 The Fremont Complex: A Behavioral Perspective. 2000 Radiocarbon Dates, Acquired Wisdom, and the 1367 1302 Journal of World Prehistory 12:255–336. Search for Temporal Order in the Uinta Basin. In Inter- 1368 1303 Maronde, Donna F. mountain Archaeology, edited by David B. Madsen and 1369 1304 1970 Wagon Run, 42UN49. In Archaeological Excava- Michael D. Metcalf, pp. 48–68. Anthropological Papers 1370 1305 tions in Dinosaur National Monument, Colorado-Utah, No. 122. University of Utah Press, Salt Lake City. 1371 1306 1964–1965, edited by David A. Breternitz, pp. 31–40. 2002 Paradigms and Perspectives Revisited: A Class I 1372 1307 University of Colorado Press, Boulder. Overview of Cultural Resources in the Uinta Basin 1373 1308 Marwitt, John P. and Tavaputs Plateau. Vernal District, Bureau of Land 1374 1309 1970 Median Village and Fremont Culture Regional Management, Vernal, Utah. 1375 1310 Variation. Anthropological Papers No. 95. University 2013 Nine Mile Canyon: The Archaeological History of 1376 1311 of Utah Press, Salt Lake City. an American Treasure. University of Utah Press, Salt 1377 1312 Massimo, Jacquelyn, and Duncan Metcalf Lake City. 1378 1313 1999 New Form for the Formative. Utah Archaeology Spangler, Jerry D., and Kevin T. Jones 1379 1314 12:1–18. 2012 The Archaeology of Desolation Canyon, Utah. In An 1380 20 AMERICAN ANTIQUITY [Vol. 0, No. 0, 2019

1381 Archaeological Legacy: Essays in Honor of Ray Patterns in the Eastern Great Basin and Northern Color- 1416 1382 T. Metheny, edited by Deanne G. Matheny, Joel C. ado Plateau. Utah Archaeology 2:3–18. 1417 1383 Janetski, and Glenna Nielsen, pp. 99–123. Occasional Truesdale, James A. 1418 1384 Paper No. 18. Museum of Peoples and Cultures, Brig- 1993 Archaeological Investigations at Two Sites in Dino- 1419 1385 ham Young University, Provo, Utah. saur National Monument: 42UN1724 and 5MF2645. 1420 1386 Stegner, Wallace E. Selections from the Division of Cultural Resources 1421 1387 1955 This Is Dinosaur: Echo Park Country and Its Magic No. 4, Rocky Mountain Region, National Park Service, 1422 1388 Rivers. Knopf, New York. Denver. 1423 1389 Surovell, Todd A., Judson Byrd Finley, Geoff Smith, Upham, Steadman 1424 1390 Robert Kelly, and P. Jeffrey Brantingham 1994 Nomads of the Desert West: A Shifting Continuum 1425 1391 2009 Correcting Temporal Frequency Distributions for in Prehistory. Journal of World Prehistory 8:113–167. 1426 1392 Taphonomic Bias. Journal of Archaeological Science Whittle, Alisdair, and Alex Bayliss 1427 1393 36:1715–1724. 2007 The Times of Their Lives: From Chronological Pre- 1428 1394 Talbot, Richard K. cision to Kinds of History and Change. Cambridge 1429 1395 2018 Late Fremont Regional Systems. In Interaction and Archaeological Journal 17:21–28. 1430 1396 Connectivity in the Greater Southwest, edited by Wigley, Tom M. L., Keith R. Briffa, and Peter D. Jones 1431 1397 Karen G. Harry and Barbara J. Roth, pp. 378–405. Pro- 1984 On the Average Value of Correlated Time Series, 1432 1398 ceedings of the Southwest Symposium. University Press with Applications in Dendroclimatology and Hydrome- 1433 1399 of Colorado, Boulder. teorology. Journal of Applied Meteorology 23:201–213. 1434 1400 2019 The City Creek Fremont and Late Great Salt Lake Wilde, James D., Deborah E. Newman, and Andrew E. God- 1435 1401 Fremont Adaptations. In The City Creek Site: Fremont frey 1436 1402 Archaeology in Salt Lake City, edited by Richard K. Tal- 1986 The Late Archaic/Early Formative Transition in 1437 1403 bot and Lane D. Richens, pp. 225–241. Occasional Central Utah: Pre-Fremont Corn from the Elsinore Bur- 1438 1404 Paper No. 15. Museum of Peoples and Cultures, Brig- ial Site, Sevier County, Utah. Technical Series No. 86– 1439 1405 ham Young University, Provo, Utah. 20. Museum of Peoples and Cultures, Brigham Young 1440 1406 Talbot, Richard K., and Lane D. Richens University, Provo, Utah. 1441 1407 1996 Steinaker Gap: An Early Fremont Farmstead. Occa- Zang, Christian, and Franco Biondi 1442 1408 sional Paper No. 2. Museum of Peoples and Cultures, 2015 treeclim: An R Package for the Numerical Calibra- 1443 1409 Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah. tion of Proxy-Climate Relationships. Ecography 1444 1410 2004 Fremont Farming and Mobility on the Far Northern 38:431–436. DOI:10.1111/ecog.01335. 1445 1411 Colorado Plateau. Occasional Paper No. 10. Museum of 1412 Peoples and Cultures, Brigham Young University, 1413 Provo, Utah. 1414 Talbot, Richard K., and James D. Wilde Submitted December 21, 2018; Revised July 24, 2019; 1446 1415 1989 Giving Form to the Formative: Shifting Settlement Accepted July 26, 2019 1447