AFGHANISTAN Rapid Food Needs Assessment, October 2007 Ghor Province

Following heavy snowfall in the 2006/07 winter in Ghor Province in central‐west Afghanistan, seasonal wheat planting in early 2007 was delayed, and a lack of sufficient rainfall following the planting caused the main harvest in August and September to fail. Households in this region depend on wheat production as an important source of income and food access, and food security conditions were identified as deteriorating by the Combined Disaster Management Team (CDMT), which is comprised of institutions including the Department of Agriculture, Department of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (DRRD), Afghan Red Crescent Society and the Provincial Reconstruction Team/NATO, which includes representatives from USAID and the US State Department. In response, the World Food Programme (WFP), DRRD and FEWS NET undertook a rapid food needs assessment (RFNA) of the situation in Ghor.

The main findings of this assessment are: • The rain‐fed wheat crop was severely damaged, to the point of total crop failure in many areas. • Irrigated wheat crop yields decreased to up to 50 percent of normal. • The majority of the population of Ghor does not have the purchasing power to buy its needed food through April. • Private cereal markets do not have the capacity to supply sufficient food, even if households in Ghor had sufficient purchasing power. • The livestock situation has improved, and districts with a high prevalence of livestock could buffer the impact of crop failure. • Until now, the coping strategies used by households in Ghor are reversible, but some households have started migrating to Hirat and Helmand and have sold their land. • To save lives and livelihoods, 14,231 MT of short‐term food assistance is needed from December through April. • The long‐term food security situation in Ghor requires a sustainable solution, including connecting Ghor with the rest of Afghanistan through road construction and reviving the traditional livelihood of livestock rearing.

Objectives

The main objective of this assessment is to inform decision makers (including the Afghan government, the donor community and humanitarian agencies, particularly the WFP program in Hirat) about the current food security situation in Ghor and hazards that may affect the population of Ghor in the coming months. Specific objectives include:

• Establish the current level of food security, including the number of households receiving assistance;

• Identify the factors that will affect food security, and the vulnerability to those factors, in the coming months;

• Determine the level of food and non‐food assistance necessary (if any), including appropriate interventions and the number of households requiring the assistance; and

• If food aid is needed and recommended, determine the appropriate type of food‐based interventions and the duration and the number of households/people to be assisted under each intervention.

FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET Afghanistan 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Washington DC 20006 Agency for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected]

www.fews.net/afghanistan AFGHANISTAN Rapid Food Needs Assessment, Ghor Province October 2007

Methodology

The WFP Emergency Food Security Assessment (EFSA) techniques and tools were used as the analytical framework for this assessment. The EFSA approach takes into account households’ food security, livelihoods, coping strategies, social and care practices, and public health‐related issues. In addition, the assessment team undertook rapid food and livestock markets assessments and interviewed various institutions. See Annex 5 for a list of assessment team participants.

Primary data was collected through field visits in 15 villages in Chighcharan, Pasaband, Taiwara, Daulina, Dawlatyar, Shahrak and Tolak districts of Ghor Province. The following techniques were used:

• Key informant interviews with district authorities, Department of Rural Rehabilitation and Development, district agriculture extension officers and non‐governmental organizations (NGOs) operating in Ghor Province • Focus‐group discussions with men at the community and household level • Assessment team observations • Ranking exercises

Figure 1. Districts of Ghor Province

Background

Ghor Province is located in central‐west Afghanistan (Figure 1). It borders eight other provinces, and is divided into 10 districts. It covers a land area of 36,657 square kilometers, representing 5.67 percent of the total Afghan territory. Ghor is home to 635,302 people, representing 2.7 percent of the total population of Afghanistan, making it the 15th most populous province in the country. The population of Ghor is distributed among the 10 districts as shown in Annex 2; the most populous district is the provincial centre, Chighcharan, followed by Pasaband and Lal‐or‐Sarjangal, with 20.8 percent, 14.5 percent and 14.6 percent of the total population of the province respectively.

Almost the entire population of Ghor lives in rural areas. The urban population consists of only 6,151 people, all located in the provincial center. With less than 1 percent of its population living in urban areas, Ghor is one of the least‐urbanized provinces in Afghanistan.

The rural population of Ghor – 623,882 inhabitants – is distributed over 2,172 settlements of varying sizes. The smallest settlement includes as few as 10 people, and the largest as many as 1,788. Small‐sized villages are predominant, which is similar to other provinces such as Wardak. Out of the 2,172 total villages, 414, representing close to one‐fifth, have populations of less than 100 people. Another 619 villages, representing 28 percent of all villages, have populations of between 100 and 199 people.

The main livelihoods in Ghor Province are agricultural production (70 percent of which is rain‐fed, and 30 percent irrigated), livestock rearing and labor migration to Iran. Migration emerged as a livelihood during the past 10 years of drought that significantly weakened the viability of the first two livelihoods. During the peak period of the drought (1998 to 2003), most households in Ghor migrated to camps for internally displaced people in Hirat Province. Ghor became heavily dependent on food aid, but local agricultural production still plays a vital role in household food security, particularly for middle‐ income and poor subsistence farmers. In comparison to other districts, livestock rearing is most prominent in Chighcharan, and the least important in Saghar. Dawlatyar District has the highest ratio of irrigated land while Lal‐or‐Sarjangal District has the lowest ratio of irrigated land. Charsada District has the highest amount of rain‐fed land per person.

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AFGHANISTAN Rapid Food Needs Assessment, Ghor Province October 2007

Ghor’s elevation is 2,500 m above sea level, and some passes that connect Ghor with rest of Afghanistan can reach more than 3,500 m. These high elevations cause road blockages during most of the winter time from November through April. As most agricultural land in Ghor is rain‐fed, the main wheat planting takes place in spring, February and March, once the harsh winter conditions have subsided. The 2006/07 winter was particularly severe, and in February and March 2007 much land was still covered by snow and farmers could not plant their wheat on time. Once snow had melted by April, farmers were able to plant their wheat, but a lack of rainfall after the planting had been completed prevented sufficient plant growth and resulted in crop failure.

Key assessment findings

1. Crop (wheat) performance

• The late cultivation that resulted from the severe winter and lack of subsequent rain caused significant wheat losses throughout the province. See Annex 1 for details of the crop performance by district.

• Rain‐fed wheat losses are severe all over Ghor Province, especially in the lowlands where the crop generally failed completely, yielded no more than the quantity of seeds that were planted or produced only straw. Due to the bad germination rate, in many cases farmers did not even attempt to harvest their rain‐fed wheat. However, in higher elevations, rain‐fed wheat yields were slightly better; 7 kg of planted seed produced between 14 kg and 21 kg.

• The seeds produced by the harvested rain‐fed wheat were also of poor quality, limiting their benefit for future planting.

• Irrigated wheat losses occurred in both lowland areas and higher altitudes, with reductions of up to 40 to 50 percent of yields in comparison to normal years. Irrigated wheat suffered partially as result of a lack of improved varieties of seeds; the seeds that were used little resistance to agricultural diseases and low temperatures.

2. Markets

• Food availability is chronically low in Ghor, which results in limited household food access. This year, prices are even higher than normal (Figure 2). For wheat prices by district, see Annex 4.

Figure 2. Prices of staple goods

Item Quant 2006 average 2007 average 2007 prices as prices (Afs) prices (Afs) percent of 2006 Wheat flour 50 kg 820 950 115% Rice 50 kg 900 1150 127% Cooking oil 18 L 700 1100 157% Gas for cooking 1 kg 45 80 177%

• Unlike other provinces in Afghanistan, the food traders in Ghor are not native to the province. This undermines or restricts the borrowing of food from food traders, which is a widely used coping strategy in other provinces by vulnerable households in times of stress, and also encourages more opportunistic pricing of traded foods.

• In comparison to other provinces in Afghan, food markets in Ghor are very sensitive to seasonality. Transportation costs to the province per 7 kg vary from Afs 18 to Afs 40, depending on road conditions due to seasonal variability. These high and variable transportation costs negatively affect purchasing power and traders’ incentive to supply the province.

• In comparison to other districts in the province, Charsada, Pasaband and Lal‐or‐Sarjangal are particularly vulnerable to seasonality (quantities of snow and mud are particularly high in the winter and spring seasons) that

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AFGHANISTAN Rapid Food Needs Assessment, Ghor Province October 2007

ultimately affect transportation costs. For example, households in Charsada District pay an additional Afs 40 in addition to what traders pay for transportation between Hirat and Ghor.

• Due to high exposure to natural shocks, which prevent livelihoods from strengthening over time, and a lack of sustainable sources of income that result in weak purchasing power, the population of Ghor is highly vulnerable to price increases.

• The weak purchasing power by itself negatively affects long‐term food availability and quality, as the low effective demand over time provides a disincentive for traders to regularly supply the local markets with quality higher‐ priced food.

• The private food markets of Ghor Province do not have the capacity to supply the needed food even if households were to have adequate purchasing power.

• In comparison to 2006, average livestock market prices increased significantly in 2007 by 150 percent. This is a result of good livestock health resulting from good pasture availability and increased demand for animals by external traders. This may strengthen coping strategies and the purchasing power of households; Chighcharan and Dawlatyar districts have the highest prevalence of livestock.

Livelihoods and socio‐economic profiles

Interviews with focus groups in the 15 assessed villages revealed four main livelihoods profiles in Ghor Province (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Livelihood profiles in Ghor Province

Agro-pastoralists Farmers with Subsistence farmers Casual workers Livelihood group (better-off) remittances (median) (poor) (poorest) Average percent 5% to 15% 40% to 60% 20% to 40% 10% to 20% of population -Owns between 10 and -Owns between 5 and -Owns between 0 to 8 -Landless or small- 20 jeribs of irrigated 10 jeribs of irrigated jeribs of irrigated and land holders and 50 to 100 jeribs of and 50 to 100 jeribs of 50 to 150 jeribs of rain- -Owns between 0 to rain-fed land rain-fed land fed land 4 jeribs of irrigated -Owns between 1 to 2 -Owns between 1 to 2 -Some families own a and 0 to 15 jeribs of cows, 1 to 2 oxen, 40 cows, 1 to 2 oxen, 10 cow and an ox, rain-fed land Household to 100 sheep and goats, to 20 sheep and goats, between 1 to 8 sheep -Owns 1 cow or ox characteristics and 1 to 2 donkeys and 1 to 2 donkeys and goats, and up to 2 up to 5 sheep or -Between 2 to 3 -At least 1 member of donkeys goats, and a donkey members of the family the family is an active -1 or 2 members of the -1 to 2 active are active laborers laborer in Iran, and 1 family are active laborers inside the to 2 are active laborers laborers country inside the country Estimated food requirements gap 0 2 4 6 in months No need for food aid; No need for food aid; Yes, there is need for Yes, there is a need households are able to household coping food aid. Household for food aid. meet their minimum strategies will likely be stocks will be depleted Households nearly food requirements by sufficient, and the within two to three rely on charity and themselves applied coping months, and families kinship support. strategies are are going into debt, Some households Food aid needs reversible selling their productive already migrated to assets (an irreversible Hirat and Helmand. coping strategy). Five Five months food aid months food aid needed from needed from December to April December to April

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AFGHANISTAN Rapid Food Needs Assessment, Ghor Province October 2007

The assessment found that food stocks from household production generally do not meet consumption requirements, and households rely primarily on food purchases or food aid. Where food aid is received, food purchases are lower.

Coping strategies: Apart from food aid or cash for work projects, the main coping strategy is labor migration. Most families reported having 1 to 2 laborers in the household. Between 60 and 70 percent of these laborers will migrate to Hirat and Kandahar provinces, and the remainder expect to try to find work within Ghor in reconstruction activities. Currently, another source of income is the collection and sale of firewood in bazaars, which is not a sustainable livelihood in Ghor as the activity is no longer feasible once winter begins.

Households that have livestock, primarily from the better‐off and medium‐income livelihoods, will sell some of their male animals to purchase wheat. Some mortgaging and selling of land was also reported. Kinship support, such as gifting food commodities between relatives and neighbors, is common.

Health: Current reported health issues were tuberculosis, pneumonia and other chest and respiratory diseases related to the cold weather. Diarrhea and malaria were the most common diseases related to the summer season. Most assessed people in the villages were concerned over the availability of clean potable water.

Community‐identified priorities: Drinking water, road rehabilitation, clinics, education and schools, and irrigation systems.

Recommendations

To respond to the current level of food insecurity, a total of 14,231 MT of mixed food aid (Figure 4) is recommended for households in the subsistence farming livelihood group (between 20 to 40 percent of the population) and casual workers livelihood group (10 to 20 percent) in areas where production losses were between 50 and 70 percent or more. This food is recommended to be distributed over the five‐month lean period from December 2007 to April 2008.

Figure 4. Food aid requirements through April 2008

Iodized Total Wheat Pulses Oil salt mixed food 11,851 1,422 948 10 14,231

A 55‐percent monthly food aid ration for a family of six people constitutes 50kg wheat, 6kg pulses, 4 liters of oil, and 1 kg salt. This is a food‐for‐work ration size for a person who is entitled to work 21 days in a food‐for‐work project. For the recommended allocation of food aid at the district level and the seasonal calendar, see annexes 2 and 3.

Additional recommendations include:

• Food for work projects should be coordinated with local authorities and the indigenous population to ensure sustainability.

• It is likely that food aid or assistance will be needed after April, if labor opportunities in the surrounding areas cannot be accessed at that time of the year. The next harvest in Ghor will begin at the end of August 2008 and continue to October of that year, so planning for continued assistance until the harvest may need to be taken into account. The labor situation should be monitored after April to advise on whether further food assistance is required.

• As most of the rain‐fed and irrigated wheat harvested this year did not yield quality seeds, rain‐fed and irrigated wheat seeds should be distributed to farmers before the upcoming spring, which is the main cultivation season.

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AFGHANISTAN Rapid Food Needs Assessment, Ghor Province October 2007

Annex 1. District‐level key findings

Chighcharan District

Out of total cultivated areas of wheat crops, 70 percent is rain‐fed and 30 percent irrigated.

• Due to the poor germination rate, around 30 percent of cultivated rain‐fed wheat in Chighcharan was not harvestable. Households are tending to use the standing wheat to graze their animals.

• 50 percent of the total cultivated rain‐fed wheat yield did not produce more than 1:3 for the amount planted. Normal yields are between 1:6 and 1:10. Grain quality is exceptionally poor and the incidence of rust contamination is high.

• 20 percent of the total cultivated rain‐fed area was comparatively good in the higher elevations where moisture was higher. Yields in these areas were 1:4 , although the produced grains are insufficient for use as seeds.

• Generally, the irrigated wheat crop yield in Chighcharan is about 50 percent of the 2005 yield. Irrigated yields are better than rain‐fed yields – up to 40 seers (one seer is equivalent to 7 kg) per jerib (one jerib of land is equivalent to 2,000 square meters), although in a normal year one jerib can produce 80 seers/jerib. This is mainly because of a lack of improved variety of seeds that is resistant to crop diseases and low temperature.

• The worst‐affected areas in Chighcharan are Shiwaj, Murghab, Laghra, Fiaq, Pai Qamar, Ashtar khan, Tigha timor, Badgah, Shakhalmand, Kasi, Alandar, Pasiband and Dahak.

Shahrak District

The total cultivated wheat crop in Shahrak District is 80 percent rain‐fed and 20 percent irrigated wheat. Out the total cultivated rain‐fed wheat, 30 percent was not harvestable due to bad germination. 60 percent of the cultivated rain‐fed wheat produced yields between 1:1 and 1:2, and 10 percent yielded between 1:3 and 1:4. In 2005 this district was able to produce sufficient wheat to cover its entire needs for 12 months, while this year wheat production will be inadequate for two to three months of household consumption. Much of the harvesting is being done for use as straw rather than grain.

The irrigated wheat crop has not been severely affected.

The worst‐affected areas (mantiqa) of Shahrak are Mahal Cheshtiha, Taimaniha, Pahlawan and Hamalajat.

Daulina District

Of the total cultivated wheat crop, 70 percent is rain‐fed and 30 percent is irrigated.

• Around 20 percent of the rain‐fed wheat in Daulina is not being harvested at all, but used to graze animals.

• 60 percent of the yield was less than 1:3 for the amount sowed, while normal yields are between 1:7 and 1:10, which represents 21 to 30 seers/jerib. Grain quality is exceptionally poor, and the incidence of rust contamination is high.

• Of the total cultivated rain‐fed wheat, 20 percent of the harvest was comparatively good and produced the maximum yield of 1:4 (12 seers/jerib), although of poor grain quality.

• The Daulina irrigated wheat crop harvest is about 60 percent of the 2005 yield. Irrigated yields are better than rain‐fed yields, and produced up to 50 seers/jerib in comparison to normal yields of 100 seers/jerib. The main reason for this reduction is unimproved plant seeds that have little resistance to grain‐crop diseases.

• The worst‐affected areas in Daulina are Shahidan, Farah Rood and Sia Chob.

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AFGHANISTAN Rapid Food Needs Assessment, Ghor Province October 2007

Tolak District

The rain‐fed wheat crop has been badly affected. Around 25 percent of the rain‐fed wheat in Tulak is not being harvested. 40 percent of the crop yielded less than 1:3, and 35 percent yielded 1:4.

Due to the lack of rainfall at the flowering stage, the rain‐fed wheat has been particularly affected in the following areas: Chahar Rah, Gogosh, Kotah, Dai, Zai Afghan and Mazar Goy.

Irrigated wheat, specifically autumn wheat, produced near‐normal yields (60 seers/jerib) in many places where there is a high incidence of fertilizer usage and where water supply has not been a significant issue. Spring‐planted wheat yields were 25 percent below normal.

Pasaband District

Throughout the district, 25 percent of rain‐fed wheat was severely affected and returned zero yields. In other areas, yields are between 1:2 and 1:3 (25 percent of a normal yield). The irrigated wheat harvest is expected to be near normal.

The worst‐affected areas of Pasaband District are Khaja, Wahjodeen, Kakori, Sara botho and Atkal.

Taiwara District

Of the total cultivated wheat crop, 40 percent is rain‐fed and 60 percent is irrigated.

Rain‐fed wheat has been severely affected, producing maximum yields of 1:3. The worst‐affected areas of the district are Kohian, Asakawcha, Zaini Nawroz, Khatif, Diwari Surkh, Ghawchi, Zairaini, Khowja Ganj, Yakhan, Narmi and Nili.

Irrigated wheat crops were much less affected, with reductions in yields of 40 percent for spring wheat and slight reductions for autumn wheat.

Dawlatyar District

Out of the total cultivated wheat crop, 60 percent is rain‐fed and 40 percent irrigated.

Rain‐fed wheat has been affected to the point of producing maximum yields of 1:3 in Kharbid, Manjo, Mahi khan, Mian gholak, Khosh Now, Dara gak, Shorabak, Tilak Olia, Sufla, Sia Cheshma and Pushti Noor. In Dara kishraw, rain‐fed wheat yields were slightly better (between 1:4 and 1:6).

Irrigated wheat crops are much less affected, with reductions of 20 percent in yields. Farmers that planted improved varieties of wheat seeds face insignificant yield reductions.

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Annex 2. Food requirements at the district level

Estimated Estimated potential food Iodized potential insecure Wheat Pulses salt Total mixed Population food insecure population, as needs needs Oil needs needs food needs District (2005) population percent of total (MT) (MT) (MT) (MT) (MT) CHAHAR SADA 30,079 16,543 55 689 83 55 0.57 828 DAWLATYAR 33,364 15,014 45 626 75 50 0.52 751 DAULINA 38,654 19,327 50 805 97 64 0.67 967 LAL-OR- SARJANGAL 92,800 51,040 55 2,127 255 170 1.77 2,554 CHIGHCHARAN 132,442 72,843 55 3,035 364 243 2.53 3,645 PASABAND 92,356 36,942 40 1,539 185 123 1.28 1,848 SAGHAR 30,497 9,149 30 381 46 30 0.32 458 SHAHRAK 57,888 23,155 40 965 116 77 0.80 1,159 TAIWARA 82,287 24,686 30 1,029 123 82 0.86 1,235 TOLAK 44,935 15,727 35 655 79 52 0.55 787 Total 635,302 284,427 45 11,851 1,422 948 10 14,231

Annex 3. Seasonal Calendar

District January February March April May June July August September October November December CHAHAR SADA DAWLATYAR DAWLINA LAL WA SARJANGAL CHIGHCHIRAN PASABAND SAGHAR SHAHRAK TAYWARA TULAK Harvest season for main cereals/staples Lean Season

White spaces indicate that household food requirements can be covered through own production, income and copping strategies

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Annex 4. District market wheat prices

Current prices in District the district level, Afs Pasaband 15 Taiwara 15 Shahrak 18 Dawlatyar 14 Daulina 18 Charsada 20 Saghar 15 Tolak 15 Lal-or-Sarjangal 15 Chighcharan 16

Annex 5. Assessment team participants

Fazal Karim Najimi FEWS NET Afghanistan, Country Representative Home Chitteri WFP Hirat, Head of office Ghulam Rabbani WFP Hirat, Program Assistant Fahim Tabibi WFP Hirat, Program Assistant AhmadShah Shahi WFP Country Office, VAM Officer Noor Mohammad Local Surveyor Mohammad Zahir Local Surveyor Raz Mohammad Local Surveyor Mohammad Salim Local Surveyor Ali Reza DRRD Chighcharan, Site Engineer Gul Zaman DRRD Chighcharan, Project Coordinator

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