Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

A Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

A.1 Proposed Area of Influence

The Area of Influence (AOI) of the traffic model is illustrated in Figure A1 . The AOI adopts the Study Area defined in the Study Brief as the basis with extension to cover not only the proposed NDAs at North, North, Ping Che and , but also the to the north of ATC Screenline R-R, including , / Fanling, , and districts. To examine the additional traffic which will distribute to all over the territory, other strategic highways providing main accesses for the proposed NDAs such as Fanling , , , , and Highway etc. are covered within the AOI.

A.2 Strategic Model Preparation

Arup’s in-house territory transport model was developed using EMME software which comprises a traditional 4-stage model and is compatible with ’s Enhanced Comprehensive Transport Study – 3 (ECTS3) model. It has been well-validated to year 2005 by territory-wide cordons and screenlines and major corridors including Tolo Highway. It is hence recommended to adopt this model as a basis and update it using the latest available planning data and land use data for this study. With the availability of the 2006-based Territorial Population and Employment Data Matrices (TPEDM) land use data released and revised by Planning Department (PlanD) in May and July 2008 respectively, the base year model was developed for year 2006 and it was validated to 2006 traffic condition. The model input data for base year model setup is described in the following sections:

A.2.1 Territorial Planning Data The 2006-based Territorial Population and Employment Data Matrices (TPEDM) summarises the land use data for base year 2006 and was provided by Planning Department. The key data is summarised in Table 1 . Table 1 Summary of TPEDM Data for Base Year 2006

Population Employment Hotel Room

Hong Kong Island

Central & Western 263,542 377,746 4,746 Wan Chai 192,494 275,644 8,392

HK Eastern 588,016 273,372 2,823 HK Southern 279,943 92,420 176

Sub-total 1,323,995 1,019,181 16,137

Kowloon Urban Yau Ma Tei 198,798 240,371 18,285

Mong Kok 137,413 119,221 2,999 Sham Shui Po 390,656 198,903 55

Kowloon City 371,887 176,124 2,453 Kwun Tong 594,471 282,511 3

Wong Tai Sin 429,846 94,631 0 Sub-total 2,123,072 1,111,761 23,795

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Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

Population Employment Hotel Room

New Territories 279,093 127,643 911 Kwai Chung 315,940 177,968 0 206,486 35,679 1,600 Tuen Mun 489,960 109,733 450

Yuen Long 143,775 50,237 26 Tin Shui Wai 272,217 30,742 561 Tai Po 252,714 73,122 40 Fanling/Sheung Shui 237,562 57,596 0

Shatin 431,749 160,760 1,065 194,997 30,620 831 Tseung Kwan O 348,877 64,488 0 North Lantau 89,245 68,649 2,545 Subtotal 3,262,616 987,237 8,029

Rural Rural NWNT 145,282 39,942 51

Rural NENT 78,079 21,247 0 Rural SENT 64,472 22,259 0

Rural SWNT 67,398 18,354 221 Sub-total 355,231 101,802 272

Total 7,064,914 3,219,981 48,233

Notes: • Population includes Usual Residents and Persons Other than Usual Residents Present in Hong Kong as at Mid-year • Persons Other than Usual Residents Present in Hong Kong as at Mid-year including Mobile Residents and Transients • According to the hotel statistics published in the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics (October 2007), the average hotel room occupancy for year 2006 was about 87%

A.2.2 Highway and Railway Infrastructure Since the strategic model has been updated to year 2005, further update was required to introduce any highway and railway projects completed and operated in year 2006. In accordance with the webpage information of and rail operators, the following highway and railway updates were incorporated into the strategic model for this study. Highway • Improvement between Area 2 and , Tsuen Wan • Widening of Yuen Long Highway between and Shap Interchange Railway • Opening of AsiaWorld-Expo Station

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Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

A.2.3 Economic Growth According to the C&SD’s information released, the year-on-year growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real terms for base year 2006 was 7.0%.

A.2.4 Vehicle Fleet Size The fleet size of Private Vehicles and Goods Vehicles is obtained from Transport Department as shown in Table 2 . The breakdowns of goods vehicle fleet size by goods vehicle type are based on information from Licensing Division/ TD. Table 2 Vehicle Fleet Size for the Base Year 2006 Private Vehicles Goods Vehicles Vehicle Private Taxi Goods Container Class Motorcycle LGV MGV HGV Car Van Vehicle Fleet Size 34,900 355,200 18,000 39,700 29,400 26,200 3,100 12,900 Sub-total 390,100 18,000 111,300

A.2.5 Cross Boundary Traffic Base Year 2006 cross boundary traffic statistics were extracted from Transport Department’s Monthly Traffic and Transport Digest, and are presented in Table 3. Table 3 Year 2006 Cross Boundary Vehicular Traffic (in Vehicles/Day) Cross Boundary Vehicle Class Total Bus/ Coach 3,120 238 263 3,621 GV 9,781 4,382 860 15,023 CT 9,028 2,177 295 11,500 Car 9,172 713 1,055 10,941 Total 31,101 7,511 2,473 41,085

A.2.6 Port Related Data The port related data includes container throughput, port back-up and open storage data. The container throughput was contained in the Study on Hong Kong Port Cargo Forecasts 2005/2006 commissioned by Transport and Housing Bureau. Land use data relating to container port back-up and open storage areas, on the other hand, was provided by Planning Department. The port related data is summarised in Table 4 . Table 4 Port Related Data for Base Year 2006 Productivity of CTs 1-9 Port Back-up Area (in Open Storage Area Year (in thousand TEUs per Year) Hectares) (in Hectares) 2006 16,050 413.18 583.79

A.2.7 Airport The total number of air passenger in 2006 was provided by Planning Department based on the information received from Airport Authority HK. The figures are summarised in Table 5. Table 5 Airport Usage in 2006 Parameter Total Average Daily Air Passengers 79,000 Daily Cargo (Tonnes) 7,900

Source: Information from Airport Authority HK provided by PlanD.

A.2.8 Toll Data Base Year 2006 road and tunnel tolls were extracted from Transport Department’s Annual Transport Digest 2007, and is presented in Table 6. Table 6 Toll Data for Base Year 2006

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Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

Private/ Light Medium Heavy Goods Tractor Toll Facility Car Taxi Public Goods Goods Goods Van Unit Light Bus Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Tate’s Cairn Tunnel 12 12 18 18 18 23 23 38 3 3 3 3 3 3 Tunnel 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Cross Harbour Tunnel 20 10 10 15 15 20 30 40 1 40 35 50 55 55 80 110 140 25 25 38 38 38 50 75 100 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 30 30 40 40 40 50 80 80 Tai Lam Tunnel (R3-CPS) 1 25 25 75 28 28 35 40 40

A.3 Base Year Model Validation

A.3.1 Screenline and Observed Traffic Data To replicate the 2006 traffic conditions, this model was validated to the observed data obtained from 2006 Annual Traffic Census (ATC) traffic count data for Daily, AM and PM peak hour traffic in pcu/hour (by direction) at the following screenlines (also illustrated in Figure A1 ): • ATC Screenlines at Harbour Crossings; • ATC Kowloon External Cordon (Kowloon Urban Area Boundary); • ATC Tsing Yi External Cordon (Tsing Yi Area Boundary); • ATC Screenline R-R (North end of Tsuen Wan & Shatin); • ATC Screenline S-S (East End of Tuen Mun and Yuen Long); • ATC Screenline T-T (North End of Tai Po & Yuen Long); and • ATC Screenline Y-Y (Boundary between Tuen Mun & Yuen Long). Apart from ATC screenlines, three local screenlines were selected within the AOI which could further enhance the model validation by providing a powerful tool for checking the overall performance of the model. The local screenlines are located at (also illustrated in Figure A1 ): • Tuen Mun South Screenline which covers Tuen Mun Road and Castle Peak Road south of Sam Shing Hui; • San Tin Screenline which covers Castle Peak Road, and San Tam Road south of Fairview Park • Fanling Screenline which covers Fan Kam Road, Tai Wo Service Road West and south of Interchange. Supplementary classified traffic count surveys for the selected screenlines were undertaken in October 2008 on the normal weekdays from Tuesday to Thursday, for both AM and PM Peak periods, i.e. 07:15-09:15 for the AM peak and 17:30-19:30 for the PM peak. The traffic count surveys were adjusted back to 2006 traffic condition using the factor interrogated from ATC traffic data, which accounted for 1-3% growth per annum. The model was validated to these observed data for AM and PM peak hour traffic in pcu/hour (by direction). Furthermore, for model validation purpose, daily figures in public transport patronage (no. of passengers) for franchised buses and PLB/GMB at the defined screenlines were obtained from 2006 ATC. Traffic data on the daily ridership of MTRC and running across the above screenlines were also collated from the Railway Development Office of Highways Department.

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Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

A.3.2 Validation Criteria As a general guideline for model validation adopted in various Government Studies conducted by Arup, the highway screenline model flow should be within 10% discrepancy of the observed traffic flow for all screenlines. For public transport screenline validation, a target of 20% discrepancy was adopted. The validation criteria are summarised in Table 7 . Table 7 Validation Guidelines Validation Criteria Validation Target Highway Screenline Daily Flows 100% within ± 10% Highway Screenline AM Peak Flows 100% within ± 10% Highway Screenline PM Peak Flows 100% within ± 10% Transit Screenline Daily Peak Flows 100% within ± 20%

A.3.3 Highway Validation Summary A summary of the daily and peak hour validation results is presented in Table 8 for the selected screenlines. The results indicate that the differences of the modeled and observed screenline totals are all within 10%. Table 8 Highway Screenline Total Validation Summary Total vehicles (PV+GV) in pcu Daily AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Screenline Bound Mod/ Mod/ Mod/ Obs Mod Obs Mod Obs Mod Obs Obs Obs Cross Harbour N 127,300 125,100 0.98 6,500 6,500 1.01 8,000 7,500 0.94 Tunnels S 126,200 125,600 0.99 8,200 7,900 0.96 7,000 7,000 1.01 Kowloon External N 382,900 387,000 1.01 20,200 21,000 1.04 24,600 23,300 0.94 Cordon S 390,300 384,000 0.98 29,600 29,600 1.00 21,700 21,200 0.98 Tsing Yi External In 206,600 202,400 0.98 13,700 13,500 0.98 12,300 11,800 0.96 Cordon Out 200,9100 201,900 1.00 13,200 13,000 0.98 11,600 11,400 0.98 R-R N 194,100 197,400 1.02 9,800 9,500 0.97 13,700 13,200 0.96 S 193,900 201,400 1.04 16,500 16,000 0.97 10,700 10,700 1.00 S-S E 183,700 183,400 1.00 14,200 13,700 0.97 10,500 10,300 0.97 W 181,700 183,200 1.01 9,900 9,800 0.99 12,400 11,200 0.91 T-T N 154,800 143,600 0.93 9,400 9,200 0.98 9,800 9,600 0.98 S 150,900 156,900 1.04 10,100 10,500 1.04 9,100 9,500 1.04 Y-Y E 73,300 73,500 1.00 4,500 4,500 1.02 4,400 4,400 1.01 W 73,800 72,800 0.99 5,100 5,000 0.98 4,300 4,100 0.97 Tuen Mun South E - - - 5,000 5,100 1.02 3,600 3,400 0.95 W - - - 3,500 3,500 0.99 4,400 4,400 0.99 San Tin N - - - 4,200 4,400 1.04 4,200 4,400 1.06 S - - - 4,300 4,500 1.04 4,000 4,000 1.01 Fanling N - - - 4,500 4,700 1.05 5,300 5,000 0.96 S - - - 5,600 5,400 0.97 4,700 4,700 1.00 Note : The observed and modelled traffic flow are rounded to nearest hundred.

A.3.4 Transit Validation Summary A summary of the validation results at the selected screenlines for patronage on road-based and rail-based modes is presented in Tables 9. The results indicate that the differences of the modeled and observed screenline totals are all within 20% for daily patronage except the rail patronage at Screenline Y-Y, which is 24% lower than the observed. Considered that this screenline is located far from the NDA areas and the rail network connection between NENT and NWNT is not direct, the proportion of people travelling between North District and Tuen Mun District by East Rail and West Rail should be comparatively minor. The validation result is therefore still acceptable for this Study.

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Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

Table 9 Daily Transit Screenline Validation Summary Bi -directional Patronage Screenline 3 Road -based (PLB + Bus) Rai l-based Obs Mod Mod/Obs Obs Mod Mod/Obs Cross Harbour Tunnels 798,500 857,000 1.07 941,000 979,700 1.04 Kowloon External Cordon 1,565,300 1,828,900 1.17 1,348,000 1,405,531 1.04 Tsing Yi External Cordon 911,900 991,800 1.09 226,000 236,680 1.05 R-R 855,700 802,800 0.94 530,000 524,119 0.99 S-S 876,300 814,000 0.93 110,000 110,095 1.00 T-T 301,100 271,500 0.90 362,823 375,992 1.04 Y-Y 66,200 53,300 0.81 91,000 69,256 0.76 Note : The observed and modelled patronage data are rounded to nearest hundred.

Table 10 and Table 11 shows the AM and PM peak transit screenline validation summary. Table 10 AM Peak Transit Screenline Validation Summary Bi -directional Patronage Screenline 3 Road -based (PLB + Bus) Rail -based Obs Mod Mod/Obs Obs Mod Mod/Obs Cross Harbour Tunnels 73,000 80,600 1.10 134,000 133,500 1.00 Kowloon External Cordon 147,900 161,300 1.09 182,000 179,600 0.99 Tsing Yi External Cordon 92,800 81,100 0.87 27,000 26,100 0.97 R-R 87,900 75,400 0.86 66,000 60,400 0.92 S-S 83,200 74,900 0.90 18,000 15,300 0.85 T-T 24,400 25,100 1.03 37,800 35,500 0.94 Y-Y 6,000 5,400 0.90 11,000 8,500 0.77 Note : The observed and modelled patronage data are rounded to nearest hundred.

Table 11 PM Peak Transit Screenline Validation Summary Bi -directional Patronage Screenline 3 Road -based (PLB + Bus) Rail -based Obs Mod Mod/Obs Obs Mod Mod/Obs Cross Harbour Tunnels 69,200 73,900 1.07 110,000 116,100 1.06 Kowloon External Cordon 131,400 142,700 1.09 140,000 153,900 1.10 Tsing Yi External Cordon 70,800 70,200 0.99 21,000 24,500 1.17 R-R 72,900 61,100 0.84 50,000 51,000 1.02 S-S 74,800 60,800 0.81 12,000 9,100 0.76 T-T 23,800 19,200 0.81 32,600 35,700 1.09 Y-Y 5,000 3,600 0.72 10,000 6,500 0.65 Note : The observed and modelled patronage data are rounded to nearest hundred.

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Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

B Local Area Traffic Model Validation

B.1 Approach

Upon the validation of the base year strategic model, matrices were cordoned at the NENT area for more detail road links and junctions validation by developing the local area traffic model (LATM) using SATURN. The cordoned matrices were disaggregated into BDTM zone level with further zone disaggregation and the local transport networks were also updated in accordance with the most up- to-date information including the Method of Control (MOC) and time plan at each junction within the proximity. After running the assignment under LATM, the modeled traffic data were compared with the observed traffic data for the road links by direction and for the key junctions by total in and out on each arm. The results of the initial assignment runs were checked and identified for any unreasonably high or low traffic flows, speeds, queues and delays. On the other hand, control on the matrix estimation process has been in place to avoid over adjusting the matrices unreasonably. This involves a thorough check on individual trip ends before and after the matrix estimation. Significant adjustments in areas with no further development have been checked on their reasonableness and where necessary, were capped for re-estimation. In this process, the final matrices for the base year local area transport model matrices were produced.

B.2 Validation Result

B.2.1 Screenline, Cordon and Junction location For the LATM validation, the modeled traffic data were compared with the observed selected major screenline flows and key junction in/out flows. A total of 3 screenlines plus 7 road links at cordon points were selected for the movements within NENT and 11 key junctions have identified to be validated in the LATM. The locations of these major road links and key junctions are shown in the below Figure.

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Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

Supplementary classified traffic count surveys for the selected screenlines were undertaken in October 2008 on the normal weekdays from Tuesday to Thursday, for both AM and PM Peak periods, i.e. 07:15-09:15 for the AM peak and 17:30-19:30 for the PM peak. The traffic count surveys were adjusted back to 2006 traffic condition using the factor interrogated from ATC traffic data, which accounted for 1-3% growth per annum. The model was validated to these observed data for AM and PM peak hour traffic in pcu/hour (by direction).

B.2.2 Validation Criteria The guidelines for validation for this study adopted are the same as those for the Base District Traffic Models (BDTMs) presented in Table 12 below. Table 12 Validation Guidelines Validation Criteria Validation Target 1. Total Screenline Flows 100% within ± 10% 85% within ± 10% 2. Major Road Links 100% within ± 20% GEH 6 or less on 70% of links 3. Key Junctions (Entry / Exit arm) GEH 7 or less on 80% of links GEH 10 or less on 95% of links

The GEH statistic is a modified chi-square test of the form:

(V −V )2 2 1 1 (V +V ) 2 1 2 where V1 and V2 are the observed and modeled flows on a specific link. This is used in order to reflect importance of a difference based on the total volume on a link. If percentages alone are examined then there is a risk of very large percentage differences in small flow volumes appearing important when they are not. Use of the GEH statistic is designed to remove this risk by reducing the significance of relatively large (percentage) differences between two small numbers. (For example an absolute difference of 100 pcu/hr gives a big percentage difference if the flows are of the order of 100 pcu/hr but will be unimportant for 1,000 pcu/hr). In general a GEH statistic of less than 6.0 or 7.0 is considered adequate and less than 3.0 is very good.

B.2.3 Screenline and Cordon Validation The validation results at each cordon point and major road links across screenlines within NENT Area are summarised in Table 13 and the statistics is shown in Table 14 . Again, the results indicate that the differences at each cordon point and major road links are all within 20%. Table 13 Cordon Points and Major Road Links Validation Summary Total Vehicles (PV+GV+PT 1) Screenline Bound AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Observed Modeled Mod/Obs Observed Modeled Mod/Obs San Tin Highway N 4,834 4,912 1.02 4,298 4,297 1.00 Cordon S 4,862 4,722 0.97 3,965 3,930 0.99 Castle Peak Road N 326 326 1.00 279 279 1.00 Cordon S 162 162 1.00 123 122 0.99 N 222 222 1.00 220 220 1.00 San Tam Raod Cordon S 532 530 1.00 520 516 0.99 N 418 419 1.00 426 426 1.00 Fan Kam Road Cordon S 478 471 0.99 458 454 0.99 Fanling High way N 4,794 4,792 1.00 4,901 4,899 1.00 Cordon S 5,773 5,647 0.98 4,375 4,343 0.99

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Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

Total Vehicles (PV+GV+PT 1) Screenline Bound AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Observed Modeled Mod/Obs Observed Modeled Mod/Obs Tai Wo Service Road N 260 260 1.00 450 450 1.00 West Cordon S 636 632 0.99 381 381 1.00 Bridge’s Pool Road N 260 260 1.00 450 450 1.00 Cordon S 636 609 0.96 381 380 1.00 Po Shek Wu Road N 1,282 1,338 1.04 1,360 1,401 1.03 at Screenline 1 S 1,522 1,533 1.01 1,655 1,621 0.98 So Kwun Po Road E 1,253 1,223 0.98 1,294 1,207 0.93 at Screenline 1 W 980 989 1.01 840 846 1.01 Sha Tau Kok Road N 1,037 1,102 1.06 810 826 1.02 at Screenline 1 S 980 969 0.99 948 985 1.04 San Wan Road N 291 294 1.01 371 369 0.99 at Screenline 1 S 565 495 0.88 504 512 1.02 Jockey Club Road W 1,342 1,394 1.04 1,692 1,739 1.03 at Screenline 1 E 1,333 1,345 1.01 1,479 1,467 0.99 Ma Sik Road E 842 764 0.91 595 559 0.94 at Screenline 2 W 782 789 1.01 651 637 0.98 Jockey Club Road E 636 643 1.01 575 581 1.01 at Screenline 2 W 673 670 1.00 617 630 1.02 San Wan Road E 507 556 1.10 441 460 1.04 at Screenline 2 W 527 536 1.02 590 635 1.08 Fanling Highway E 3,510 3,514 1.00 3,396 3,412 1.00 at Screenline 3 W 3,330 3,424 1.03 3,775 3,782 1.00 Castle Peak Road E 906 905 1.00 654 652 1.00 at Screenline 3 W 799 816 1.02 756 765 1.01 Note : 1 – Observed road-based public transport flows. Table 14 Statistics of Cordon Points and Major Road Links Validation Summary Percentage of Major Road Link Flows Validation Target AM Peak PM Peak Total (PV + GV+PT 1) Total (PV + GV+PT 1) 85% Within ±10% 97% 100% 100% Within ±20% 100% 100%

Note : 1 – Observed road-based public transport flows.

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Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

B.2.3 Key Junction Validation for LATM The validation of key junctions was undertaken for entry/exit flows on each arm separately. Table 15 summarises the results of validation and the statistic is presented in Table 16. Table 15 Key Junction Validation Summary Total Vehicles (PV+GV+PT 1) Junction AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Observed Modeled GEH Observed Modeled GEH Junction 1 - Lok Ma Chau Rd/ Castle Peak Rd - Chau Tau ENTRY ARM Castle Peak Rd WB -Entry 502 508 0 549 370 8 Access Rd NB -Entry 634 694 2 859 711 5 Castle Peak Rd EB -Entry 432 378 3 457 407 2 Lok Ma Chau Rd -Entry 364 371 0 404 395 0 Sub-total 1,931 1,951 0 2,269 1,881 9 EXIT ARM Castle Peak Rd WB -Exit 538 546 0 577 587 0 Castle Peak Rd EB -Exit 1,004 1,010 0 1,205 813 12 Lok Ma Chau Rd -Exit 389 395 0 487 481 0 Sub-total 1,931 1,951 0 2,269 1,881 9 Junction 2 - Kwu Tung Rd/ Ki Lun Tsuen local rd ENTRY ARM Kwu Tung Rd EB -Entry 425 419 0 502 522 1 Ki Lun Tsuen Rd -Entry 45 45 0 31 31 0 Kwu Tung Rd WB -Entry 265 267 0 456 733 11 Sub-total 734 730 0 989 1,286 9 EXIT ARM Kwu Tung Rd EB -Exit 255 256 0 449 726 11 Ki Lun Tsuen Rd -Exit 20 21 0 30 30 0 Kwu Tung Rd WB -Exit 460 453 0 510 530 1 Sub-total 734 730 0 989 1,286 9 Junction 3 - Castle Peak Rd - Chau Tau/ Connection to Kwu Tung Rd ENTRY ARM Castle Peak Road WB -Entry 342 349 0 299 295 0 Connection Road NB -Entry 337 385 3 438 450 1 Castle Peak Road EB -Entry 349 359 1 578 730 6 To Fanling Slip SB -Entry 382 392 0 510 675 7 Sub-total 1,410 1,485 2 1,825 2,149 7 EXIT ARM Castle Peak Road WB -Exit 234 271 2 356 373 1 Connection Road NB -Exit 378 395 1 470 648 8 Castle Peak Road EB -Exit 416 428 1 489 453 2 Sub-total 1,028 1,094 2 1,315 1,474 4 Junction 4 - Kwu Tung Rd/ Connection to Castle Peak Rd - Chau Tau ENTRY ARM Kwu Tung Road WB -Entry 448 444 0 664 659 0 Kwu Tung Road EB -Entry 186 177 1 304 314 1 Connection SB -Entry 307 314 0 367 284 5 Fr Fanling Slip SB -Entry 422 469 2 546 476 3 Sub-total 1,362 1,404 1 1,881 1,732 3 EXIT ARM Kwu Tung Road WB -Exit 175 169 0 153 147 0 Kwu Tung Road EB -Exit 541 541 0 909 828 3

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Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

Total Vehicles (PV+GV+PT 1) Junction AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Observed Modeled GEH Observed Modeled GEH Connection SB -Exit 226 227 0 276 285 1 Sub-total 942 937 0 1,338 1,260 2 Junction 5 - Castle Peak Road - Chau Tau/ Ho Sheung Heung Rd ENTRY ARM Castle Peak Road EB -Entry 412 442 1 360 372 1 Ho Sheung Heung Rd SB -Entry 433 429 0 402 400 0 Castle Peak Road WB -Entry 404 388 1 389 374 1 Sub-total 1,249 1,259 0 1,151 1,146 0 EXIT ARM Castle Peak Road EB -Exit 430 437 0 373 369 0 Ho Sheung Heung Rd SB -Exit 453 460 0 439 440 0 Castle Peak Road WB -Exit 366 361 0 339 334 0 Sub-total 1,249 1,257 0 1,151 1,143 0 Junction 6 - Kwu Tung Rd/ Kam Hang Rd ENTRY ARM Kwu Tung Road EB -Entry 123 119 0 133 140 1 Kam Hang Road NB -Entry 205 368 10 155 196 3 Kwu Tung Road WB -Entry 364 249 7 286 239 3 Sub-total 692 737 2 574 574 0 EXIT ARM Kwu Tung Road EB -Exit 337 332 0 242 235 0 Kam Hang Road NB -Exit 218 221 0 216 216 0 Kwu Tung Road WB -Exit 136 182 4 116 124 1 Sub-total 692 736 2 574 574 0 Junction 7 - Castle Peak Rd - Kwu Tung/ Kwu Tung Rd ENTRY ARM Kwu Tung Road SB -Entry 264 196 5 153 131 2 Castle Peak Road WB -Entry 499 500 0 542 564 1 Castle Peak Road EB -Entry 333 381 3 301 318 1 Sub-total 1,096 1,077 1 996 1,012 1 EXIT ARM Kwu Tung Road SB -Exit 222 232 1 192 226 2 Castle Peak Road WB -Exit 544 533 0 420 416 0 Castle Peak Road EB -Exit 330 311 1 384 371 1 Sub-total 1,096 1,077 1 996 1,012 1 Junction 8 - Tai Wo Service Road West/ Access Road to Tai Hang ENTRY ARM TWSRW NB -Entry 256 263 0 337 432 5 Tai Hang Rd EB -Entry 95 124 3 41 69 4 TWSRW SB -Entry 377 476 5 236 283 3 Sub-total 727 863 5 614 784 6 EXIT ARM TWSRW NB -Exit 440 575 6 232 305 4 Tai Hang Rd EB -Exit 87 86 0 101 109 1 TWSRW SB -Exit 200 202 0 281 370 5 Sub-total 727 863 5 614 784 6 Junction 9 - Sha Tau Kok Rd/ Ping Che Rd ENTRY ARM Sha Tau Kok Road NB -Entry 1,056 1,035 1 955 958 0 Ping Che Road EB -Entry 240 238 0 532 531 0

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Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

Total Vehicles (PV+GV+PT 1) Junction AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Observed Modeled GEH Observed Modeled GEH Sha Tau Kok Road SB -Entry 755 810 2 921 920 0 Sub-total 2,051 2,083 1 2,408 2,408 0 EXIT ARM Sha Tau Kok Road NB -Exit 821 856 1 1,258 1,261 0 Ping Che Road EB -Exit 611 604 0 469 466 0 Sha Tau Kok Road SB -Exit 619 622 0 681 681 0 Sub-total 2,051 2,082 1 2,408 2,408 0 Junction 10 - Man Kam To Road/ Ping Che Road ENTRY ARM Ping Che Road NB -Entry 28 28 0 24 25 0 Man Kam To Road EB -Entry 33 37 1 21 23 1 Man Kam To Road WB -Entry 38 38 0 24 24 0 Sub-total 98 104 1 69 72 0 EXIT ARM Ping Che Road NB -Exit 22 26 1 20 22 1 Man Kam To Road EB -Exit 39 39 0 25 26 0 Man Kam To Road WB -Exit 38 38 0 24 24 0 Sub-total 98 104 1 69 72 0

Note : 1 – Observed road-based public transport flows.

Table 16 Key Junctions Validation Summary Percentage o f Key Junction Entry/Exit Flows Validation Target AM Peak PM Peak Total (PV + GV+PT) Total (PV + GV+PT) 70% Within GEH 6 97% 90% 80% Within GEH 7 98% 92% 95% Within GEH 10 100% 95%

The results show that the key junctions are well validated as the validation criteria for GEH 6, 7 and 10 are all met for both AM and PM peak periods. As demonstrated in the screenline, major road link and junction validation summaries, the LATM was developed satisfactorily in replicating the existing traffic flow pattern and shows high degree of agreement between the modeled flows and observed traffic data.

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Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

C Design Year Model Development

C.1 Strategic Model Preparation

Based on the calibrated/validated TM, a set of reference scenario of future year models will be developed by adopting the latest available planning assumptions, committed highway infrastructures and railway projects, vehicle fleet sizes, cross boundary traffic, GDP growth and port related assumptions etc. The model input assumption for this Study has been recorded in the Technical Note– Parameters, Assumptions and Input data of the Traffic Model circulated in November 2007. However, while the transport model for this Study was developing in 2008, the “North East New Territories New Development Areas Planning and Engineering Study – Investigation” (NENT NDA Study) has commenced with a more updated set of planning parameters and input assumptions provided by various government departments which were reported in its Technical Report 3C. Considered the FCA is in vicinity of the NDAs, it is better to adopt the same set of planning assumptions as the reference model scenario for consistency. The details of data collection and analysis are reported in the following sub sections.

C.1.1 Territorial Planning Data The 2006-based Territorial Population and Employment Data Matrices (TPEDM) land use data released and revised by Planning Department (PlanD) in May and July 2008 respectively will be adopted in this Study. Planning data for Years 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 were provided by Planning Department in the NENT NDA Study. The same set of planning data will be adopted in this Study for consistency. Summaries of the population and employment planning data by district for the base year 2006 and design years 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 are presented in Table 17 and Table 18 respectively. Table 17 Summary of Population Data for Base Year and Design Years 2006 2016 2021 2026 2031 Central & Western 263,542 288,552 277,353 277,241 296,554 Wan Chai 192,494 210,195 202,515 203,007 211,804 HK Eastern 588,016 585,613 581,649 582,727 601,331 HK Southern 279,943 301,469 316,814 320,270 331,352 Sub-total 1,323,995 1,385,829 1,378,331 1,383,245 1,441,042 Kowloon Urban Yau Ma Tei 198,798 230,982 241,427 242,953 255,932 Mong Kok 137,413 147,396 141,044 141,707 151,354 Sham Shui Po 390,656 463,342 497,963 504,408 529,357 Kowloon City 371,887 439,563 490,479 494,130 511,128 Kwun Tong 594,471 670,920 708,767 716,163 739,908 Wong Tai Sin 429,846 427,518 439,650 442,592 454,435 Sub-total 2,123,072 2,379,721 2,519,331 2,541,953 2,642,115

New Territories Tsuen Wan 279,093 285,619 283,693 286,004 296,314 Kwai Chung 315,940 315,533 336,273 343,011 354,862 Tsing Yi 206,486 197,166 197,704 198,394 203,809

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2006 2016 2021 2026 2031 Tuen Mun 489,960 520,486 572,950 579,859 599,218 Yuen Long 143,775 163,169 158,763 160,766 178,846 Tin Shui Wai 272,217 315,291 321,783 324,890 332,725 Tai Po 252,714 257,215 252,532 254,106 261,945 Fanling/Sheung Shui 237,562 258,035 360,293 362,590 371,124 Shatin 431,749 496,441 493,268 496,254 510,158 Ma On Shan 194,997 223,556 226,657 225,987 229,107 Tseung Kwan O 348,877 426,455 449,313 449,035 456,436 North Lantau 89,245 143,045 223,705 288,974 297,027 Subtotal 3,262,616 3,602,012 3,876,936 3,969,869 4,091,571

Rural Rural NWNT 145,282 206,684 217,582 368,518 410,960 Rural NENT 78,079 105,626 110,643 238,326 262,997 Rural SENT 64,472 78,959 80,404 85,421 101,059 Rural SWNT 67,398 76,103 76,648 80,255 88,936 Sub-total 355,231 467,372 485,277 772,520 863,953

Total 7,064,914 7,834,935 8,259,874 8,667,588 9,038,681

Notes: • Population includes Usual Residents and Persons Other than Usual Residents Present in Hong Kong as at Mid-year • Persons Other than Usual Residents Present in Hong Kong as at Mid-year including Mobile Residents and Transients

Table 18 Summary of Employment Data for Base Year and Design Years

2006 2016 2021 2026 2031 Hong Kong Island Central & Western 377,746 385,564 380,109 388,632 395,489 Wan Chai 275,644 274,184 280,467 275,378 269,372 HK Eastern 273,372 295,064 288,692 282,913 277,692 HK Southern 92,420 107,287 104,847 111,198 113,032 Sub-total 1,019,181 1,062,099 1,054,115 1,058,120 1,055,585 Kowloon Urban Yau Ma Tei 240,371 243,344 235,600 233,508 228,346 Mong Kok 119,221 116,438 112,907 114,423 111,732 Sham Shui Po 198,903 209,586 211,116 209,777 205,923 Kowloon City 176,124 196,568 205,951 208,959 205,303 Kwun Tong 282,511 348,396 373,872 376,058 383,435 Wong Tai Sin 94,631 103,031 103,980 105,899 106,213 Sub-total 1,111,761 1,217,364 1,243,426 1,248,623 1,240,952

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2006 2016 2021 2026 2031

Tsuen Wan 127,643 140,177 143,869 140,006 135,730 Kwai Chung 177,968 194,933 210,277 212,314 207,755 Tsing Yi 35,679 38,736 38,689 38,437 37,418 Tuen Mun 109,733 119,839 118,079 114,505 111,543 Yuen Long 50,237 61,543 60,508 61,489 62,698 Tin Shui Wai 30,742 35,246 34,381 33,714 33,565 Tai Po 73,122 82,127 81,621 79,163 78,174 Fanling/Sheung Shui 57,596 61,099 61,806 64,784 62,890 Shatin 160,760 171,762 165,139 162,367 159,963 Ma On Shan 30,620 37,352 38,298 37,893 38,069 Tseung Kwan O 64,488 78,055 83,321 86,577 84,362 North Lantau 68,649 112,594 137,000 148,161 147,935 Subtotal Rural Rural NWNT 39,942 46,082 47,145 53,626 87,853 Rural NENT 21,247 23,351 28,491 30,949 37,013 Rural SENT 22,259 23,453 24,406 25,512 26,676 Rural SWNT 18,354 23,246 22,393 22,942 23,528 Sub-total 101,802 116,132 122,434 133,030 175,070

Total 3,219,981 3,529,057 3,592,963 3,619,181 3,631,709

It is assumed in TPEDM that CT10 will be located at Northwest Lantau. Following the assumption made in the NENT NDA Study, however, CT10 will be assumed at Southwest Tsing Yi. The employment places generated due to CT10 construction/ operation should therefore be relocated from Northwest Lantau to Southwest Tsing Yi. The relocation of employment data is carried out according to following: • By comparing the employment data from year 2006 to year 2031, the employment types related to CT10 in Northwest Lantau are identified. • Derive a growth rate from the 2006 to 2011 employment data of each identified employment type and project the data to year 2021, 2026 and 2031. It is regarded as the growth of employment places at Northwest Lantau even if CT10 is not in place. • The difference between the original employment data and the projected data for year 2021, 2026 and 2031 is assumed as the employment places generated for CT10. Such employment data is added to the CT10 location at Southwest Tsing Yi. The adjusted employment data for CT10 relocation is shown in Table 19. Table 19 Adjusted Employment Data for CT10 Relocation 2006 2016 2021 2026 2031 New Territories Tsing Yi 35,679 40,419 39,619 39,613 39,179

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Rural Rural SWNT 18,354 21,563 21,463 21,766 21,767

C.1.2 Highway Infrastructure Assumptions Under the NENT NDA Study, Transport Department has been consulted for the latest highway network assumptions to be adopted and it is presented in Table 20 . The same assumption was adopted in this Study for consistency.

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Table 20 Highway Infrastructure Assumptions for Design Years 2016, 2021, 2026 and Beyond Year 2016 (In addition to Base Year 2006 Road Network) Configuration Hong Kong Road P2 and realigned Hung Hing Road on Wan Chai Development Phase II D2 Road P1, P2 and Distributor Roads on Central Reclamation Phase III D2 Kowloon Route 6 (formerly Route 11) – Central Kowloon Route D3 Route 6 (formerly Route 11) – Trunk Road T2 (Kai Tak – Cha Kwo Ling Link). D2 New Territories Extension from Shek Wai Kok to D2 Castle Peak Road Widening (Tsuen Wan Area 2 to Ka Loon Tsuen) D2 Castle Peak Road Widening (Ka Loon Tsuen to Siu Lam) D2 (formerly Route 9) (Tsing Yi to Sha Tin) D3 Widening of Road S2 Route 6 (formerly Route 11) – Tseung Kwan O – Lam Tin Tunnel D2 Cross Bay Link at Tseung Kwan O D2 Widening of Tolo Highway/Fanling Highway between Island House Interchange and Fanling (Stage 1 – Section between Island House Interchange and Tai Hang) and (Stage 2 – Section between Tai D4 Hang and Wo Hop Shek Interchange) Tsuen Wan Bypass, Widening of between Tsuen Tsing Interchange and Kwai Add 2 lanes Tsing Interchange, and Associated Junction Improvement Works per direction Dualling of Hiram’s Highway between Clear Water Bay Road and Sai Kung Town D2 Hong Kong – Zhuhai – Macao Bridge Hong Kong Link Road D3 Sha Tin Trunk Road T4 D2 Reconstruction and Improvement to Tuen Mun Road D3 Tuen Mun – Link and Tuen Mun Western Bypass D2 Traffic Improvement to Tuen Mun Road (Town Centre Section) D3 Cross Boundary Bay Bridge D3 Kong Sham Western Highway D3 Hong Kong – Zhuhai – Macao Bridge and its Hong Kong Link Road D3 Year 2021 (In addition to 201 6 Road Network) Configuration Hong Kong Central – Wan Chai Bypass and Link D3/D41 Island Eastern Corridor Improvement between Causeway Bay and North Point D4/D51 Kowloon Widening of Flyover D2 New Territories Link Road to Liangtang/ Heung Yuen Wai Cross-Boundary Control Point D2

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Year 2026 (In addition to 2021 Road Network) and beyond Configuration New Territories Lantau Road P1 between Sham Shui Kok and Yam O D2

Note: The configuration of the highway varies at different sections of the road

The Link Road to Liantang/ Heung Yuen Wai Cross-Boundary Control Point has been assumed in place by year 2021. The same alignment option of the Liantang/ Heung Yuen Wai Cross Boundary Control Point and associated link roads adopted in the NENT NDA Study will be incorporated into the transport model for this Study.

C.1.3 Railway Projects Assumptions The railway network assumption is obtained from the Railway Development Office of Highways Department under the NENT NDA Study. It will be adopted for this Study for consistency and the assumption is listed in Table 21 . Table 21 Railway Project Assumptions for Design Years 2016, 2021, 2026 and beyond By Year 2016 (In addition to 2006 Existing Railway Network) Lok Ma Chau Spur Line Tseung Kwan O South Station Kowloon Southern Link Kwun Tong Line Extension Shatin to Central Link (East-West Line) West Island Line South Island Line East – Shenzhen – Hong Kong Express Rail Link By Year 2021 (In addition to 2016 Railway Network) Shatin to Central Link (North-South Line) South Island Line West Northern Link North Hong Kong Island Line Opening of MTR Station By Year 2026 and beyond (In addition to 2021 Railway Network) Opening of Tai Ho Wan MTR Station Opening of Kwu Tung MTR Station

Port Rail Line (PRL) is not included in the list. PRL should have insignificant effect on vehicular traffic as it mainly caters for cargo well in the Mainland hinterland

C.1.4 Economic Growth According to the C&SD’s information released, the year-on-year growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real terms for base year 2006 was 7.0%. For the future design years, reference data provided by the Transport Department in the NENT NDA Study which is based on the information advised by Financial Secretary’s Office will be adopted. Table 22 summarises the GDP growth assumptions.

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Table 22 Assumed GDP Growth Rates for the Design Years Year Annual GDP Growth Rate (in Real Terms) 2006 7.0% 2007 6.4% 2008 – 2012 4.5% 2013 - 2016 3.6% 2017 - 2021 3.0% 2022 - 2026 2.5% 2027 - 2031 2.4 %

Source: 2006/07 figure is based on C&SD’s information released. The rest are based on the information as advised by Financial Secretary’s Office in March 2008 .

C.1.5 Vehicle Fleet Sizes The fleet size assumption of Private Vehicles and Goods Vehicles is obtained from Transport Department under the NENT NDA Study. It will also be adopted for this Study for consistency and the assumption is shown in Table 23 . The breakdowns of goods vehicle fleet size by goods vehicle type are based on information from Licensing Division/ TD. Table 23 Projections of Vehicle Fleet Sizes for the Design Years Vehicle Class Mid-2006 Mid-2016 Mid-2021 Mid-2026 Mid-2031

Private Vehicles

Motorcycle 34,900 45,000 48,500 50,900 53,600

Private Car 355,200 458,000 493,400 518,700 545,000

Sub-total 390,100 503,000 541,900 569,600 598,600

Taxi 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000

Goods Vehicles • • •

Goods Van 39,700 40,400 41,400 42,400 43,500

LGV 29,400 29,900 • 30,700 • 31,400 32,200

MGV 26,200 26,600 • 27,300 • 28,000 28,700

HGV 3,100 3,200 3,200 3,300 3,400

Container Vehicle 12,900 13,100 13,500 13,800 14,100

Sub-total 111,300 113,100 116,000 118,900 121,900

Note: The numbers may not add up to the Sub-total number due to rounding

It is noted that the number of licensed taxis has remained relatively unchanged at around 18,000 vehicles with a mere increase by less than 200 vehicles over the 10-year period from 1996 to 2006. Assuming this trend is to continue, the taxi fleet is assumed to remain stagnant at 18,000 vehicles for the entire forecasting period.

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C.1.6 Cross Boundary Traffic The latest cross boundary traffic forecast provided by Planning Department under the NENT NDA Study is adopted for this Study for consistency. The assumption is shown in Table 24 . Table 24 Cross Boundary Traffic Forecast (in daily vehicles) Cross Boundary Point Vehicle Type 2020 2030 Lok Ma Chau (LMC) Bus/ Coach 2,600 2,700 GV 9,500 9,200 CT 9,800 9,500 Car 16,600 20,800 Total 38,500 42,100 Man Kam To (MKT) Bus/ Coach 300 400 GV 1,900 1,900 CT 1,800 1,800 Car 3,900 4,800 Total 7,900 9,000 Sha Tau Kok (STK) Bus/ Coach 400 500 GV 800 700 CT 600 600 Car 1,100 1,400 Total 3,000 3,200 (SBP ) Bus/ Coach 3,300 5,100 GV 21,600 25,500 CT 21,500 25,400 Car 34,000 54,500 Total 80,300 110,500 Hong Kong – Zhuhau Macao Bridge Bus/ Coach 2,800 4,200 (HZMB) GV 1,200 2,100 CT 1,700 2,700 Car 7,500 14,800 Total 13,200 23,900 Cro ss Boundary Total Bus/ Coach 9,400 12,900 GV 35,000 39,400 CT 35,400 39,900 Car 63,000 96,400 Total 142,800 188,700

Source: From HK2030 Study by Planning Department, October 2007

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Liantang / Heung Yuen Wai BCP was not included in the traffic forecasts in HK2030 as shown in Table 24 . The estimation of traffic movements at BCPs should be as follows: • adopt the traffic forecasts at various BCPs from the HK 2030 as shown in Table 24 and those at Liantang / Heung Yuen Wai BCP from the Shenzhen – Hong Kong Preliminary Planning Study on Developing Liantang/Heung Yuen Wai Control Point (Liantang Study) • divert traffic from other BCPs to Liantang / Heung Yuen Wai BCP based on the Liantang Study results to derive the traffic volumes for 2020 and 2030 at all BCPs. Results are shown in the Table 25 • interpolate or extrapolate from 2020 and 2030 figures to produce 2021, 2026 and 2031 estimates as shown in Table 26 Table 25 Cross Boundary Traffic Forecast – with Liantang/Heung Yuen Wai BCP (in daily vehicles) Cross Boundary Point Vehicle Type 2020 2030 Lok Ma Chau (LMC) Bus/ Coach 3,200 3,400 GV 4,100 2,900 CT 4,200 3,000 Car 15,600 19,100 Total 27,100 28,400 Man Kam To (MKT) Bus/ Coach 400 500 GV 800 600 CT 800 600 Car 3,700 4,500 Total 5,700 6,2 00 Sha Tau Kok (STK) Bus/ Coach 500 700 GV 300 200 CT 300 200 Car 1,000 1,300 Total 2,100 2,400 Shenzhen Bay Port (SBP ) Bus/ Coach 3,400 5,300 GV 21,200 25,000 CT 21,100 24,900 Car 33,900 54,500 Total 79,600 109,700 Hong Kong – Zhuhau Ma cao Bridge Bus/ Coach 2,900 4,300 (HZMB) GV 1,000 1,900 CT 1,500 2,500 Car 7,400 14,800 Total 12,800 23,500 Liantang/Heung Yuen Wai Bus/ Coach 600 800 (LT/HYW) GV 7,500 8,700 CT 7,500 8,700 Car 1,400 2,400

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Cross Boundary Point Vehicle Type 2020 2030 Total 17,000 20,600 Cross Bounda ry Total Bus/ Coach 11,000 15,000 GV 34,900 39,300 CT 35,400 39,900 Car 63,000 96,600 Total 144,300 190,800

Table 26 Cross Boundary Traffic Forecast for Model Design Years (in daily vehicles) Cross Vehicle Type 2016 2021 2026 2031 Lok Ma Chau (L MC) Bus/ Coach 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,400 GV 4,600 4,000 3,400 2,800 CT 4,700 4,100 3,500 2,900 Car 14,200 16,000 17,700 19,500 Total 26,600 27,300 27,900 28,600 Man Kam To (MKT) Bus/ Coach 400 400 500 500 GV 900 800 700 600 CT 900 800 700 600 Car 3,400 3,800 4,200 4,600 Total 5,600 5,800 6,100 6,300 Sha Tau Kok (STK) Bus/ Coach 400 500 600 700 GV 300 300 200 200 CT 300 300 200 200 Car 900 1,000 1,200 1,300 Total 1,900 2,100 2,200 2,400 Shenzhen Bay Port Bus/ Coach 2,600 3,600 4,500 5,500 (SBP ) GV 19,700 21,600 23,500 25,400 CT 19,600 21,500 23,400 25,300 Car 25,700 36,000 46,300 56,600 Total 67,600 82,700 97,700 112,800 Hong Kong – Zhuhau Macao Bus/ Coach 2,300 3,000 3,700 4,400 Bridge (HZMB) GV 600 1,100 1,500 2,000 CT 1,100 1,600 2,100 2,600 Car 4,400 8,100 11,800 15,500 Total 8,400 13,800 19,100 24,500 Liantang/Heung Yuen Bus/ Coach - 600 700 800 Wai (LT/HYW) GV - 7,600 8,200 8,800 CT - 7,600 8,200 8,800 Car - 1,500 2,000 2,500

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Cross Vehicle Type 2016 2021 2026 2031 Total - 17,300 19,100 20,900 Cross Boundary Total Bus/ Coach 8,800 11,400 13,400 15,400 GV 26,100 35,300 37,500 39,700 CT 26,600 35,900 38,100 40,400 Car 48,600 66,400 83,200 100,000 Total 110,100 149,000 172,200 195,500

C.1.7 Port Related Land Use Assumptions This Study will adopt the port related assumptions adopted in the NENT NDA Study which are based on the container throughput forecasts contained in the Study on Hong Kong Port Cargo Forecasts 2005/2006 commissioned by Transport and Housing Bureau. A summary of the assumptions of future container terminals productivity is presented in Table 27. It is assumed that CT10 will be required by year 2020. There is no decision on the location of the proposed Container Terminal 10 (CT10) at this stage. As the reference scenario, CT10 will be assumed at Southwest Tsing Yi in this Study. Table 27 Estimated Productivity of Container Terminals (in thousand TEUs per Year) New Container Year CTs 1-9 Total Terminal (CT10) 2006 16,050 - 16,050 2016 21,470 - 21,470 2021 25,150 1,160 26,310 2026 25,150 4,250 29,400 2031 25,150 6,980 32,130

Source: Container Terminal Capacity information is based on the Study on Hong Kong Port Forecasts 2005/2006 provided by Transport and Housing Bureau. The new container berths would be required by 2020 under the A2 Capacity Scenario. Note: The future year forecast for 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 is projected from 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030.

Land use data relating to container port back-up and open storage areas are summarised in Table 28 by broad district. 2006 and 2008 port back-up and open storage areas data is provided by PlanD under the NENT NDA Study which will be adopted as the basis in this Study for consistency. As there are no existing available projections on port back-up areas based on the existing inventory, the following methodology is adopted in estimating the forecast of port backup data: • Assume no change in port backup data at CT1–9 from 2008 inventory • Adopt the assumption for the planned new supply by year 2020 in “the Study on Hong Kong Port Cargo Forecasts 2005/2006”, which includes CT10 and the NDAs. • Assume the port backup data for NDAs to be maintained the same from 2020 onwards. For CT10, it is assumed that the first berth is needed by 2020 and all four berths will be needed by 2026. • Derive a growth factor for the port backup data in other areas (excluding CT1-10 and the NDAs) with reference to the territory-wide total provided in “the Study on Hong Kong Port Cargo Forecasts 2005/2006” and apply to the 2008 inventory. For the open storage area, there is no published information available for the design years. Although significant changes to such land uses may not be likely, the open storage use at the NDA areas may be reduced for development purpose. For design year model setup, the open storage data in NDAs

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is assumed to be reduced at the same extent as the port backup data of the corresponding NDA. The open storage data in other areas will assume the same as the existing provisions. Table 28 Base Year 2006 and Design Years Port Backup and Open Storage Areas (in hectares) 2006 2016 2021 2026 2031 Port Open Open Port Open Port Open Port Open Broad District Port Back - Back-up Storage Storage Back-up Storage Back-up Storage Back-up Storage up Area Area Area Area Area Area Area Area Area Area Hong Kong Island Central & 0.48 0.12 0.50 0.12 0.55 0.12 0.51 0.12 0.48 0.12 Western Wan Chai 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 HK Eastern 0.00 1.01 0.00 1.01 0.00 1.01 0.00 1.01 0.00 1.01 HK Southern 0.00 1.46 0.00 1.46 0.00 1.46 0.00 1.46 0.00 1.46 Sub-total 0.48 2.59 0.50 2.59 0.55 2.59 0.51 2.59 0.48 2.59 Kowloon Urban Yau Ma Tei 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mong Kok 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sham Shui Po 5.54 3.96 6.42 3.45 7.04 3.45 6.57 3.45 6.11 3.45 Kowloon City 0.00 2.25 2.97 1.29 3.26 1.29 3.04 1.29 2.82 1.29 Kwun Tong 3.21 7.72 4.24 7.34 4.65 7.34 4.34 7.34 4.03 7.34 Wong Tai Sin 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sub-total 8.75 13.93 13.62 12.07 14.95 12.07 13.96 12.07 12.96 12.07 New Territories Tsuen Wan 0.00 0.37 0.00 0.86 0.00 0.86 0.00 0.86 0.00 0.86 Kwai Chung 68.66 1.07 71.04 0.72 75.65 0.72 72.20 0.72 68.76 0.72 Tsing Yi 34.03 6.61 41.93 6.61 90.50 6.61 115.97 6.61 141.43 6.61 Tuen Mun 26.28 9.12 19.99 11.25 21.94 11.25 20.48 11.25 19.02 11.25 Yuen Long 30.75 24.28 31.08 28.11 34.11 28.11 31.85 28.11 29.58 28.11 Tin Shui Wai 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Tai Po 0.00 5.05 0.00 5.15 0.00 5.15 0.00 5.15 0.00 5.15 Fanling/Sheung 7.15 7.68 5.83 7.00 3.41 4.77 3.29 4.77 3.17 4.77 Shui Shatin 2.78 9.82 2.90 9.63 3.18 9.63 2.97 9.63 2.76 9.63 Ma On Shan 0.00 0.97 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.92 Tseung Kwan O 0.35 4.86 0.37 5.55 0.40 5.55 0.38 5.55 0.35 5.55 North Lantau 0.00 2.60 0.00 3.46 0.00 3.46 0.00 3.46 0.00 3.46 Subtotal 169.99 72.41 173.14 79.27 229.20 77.04 247.13 77.04 265.07 77.04 Rural Rural NWNT 198.93 358.41 201.04 329.48 214.35 324.73 201.13 324.73 187.91 324.73 Rural NENT 33.38 127.28 27.98 100.36 25.07 75.51 24.51 75.51 23.95 75.51 Rural SENT 1.65 7.51 1.72 6.25 1.89 6.25 1.76 6.25 1.64 6.25 Rural SWNT 0.00 1.66 0.00 1.74 0.00 1.74 0.00 1.74 0.00 1.74

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2006 2016 2021 2026 2031 Port Open Open Port Open Port Open Port Open Broad District Port Back - Back-up Storage Storage Back-up Storage Back-up Storage Back-up Storage up Area Area Area Area Area Area Area Area Area Area Sub-total 233.96 494.86 230.74 437.83 241.31 408.22 227.40 408.22 213.49 408.22 Total 413.18 583.79 418.00 531.76 486.00 499.92 489.00 499.92 492.00 499.92

Note: • Port Back-up Area includes Container Depot, Container Yard, Container Vehicle Park and Container Vehicle Repair Workshop. • Source Data provided by Planning Department (as at Oct 2006 and Feb 2008) • Future new planned supply of port backup area is based on the assumption in the Study on Hong Kong Port Cargo Forecasts 2005/2006. Interpolation has been done to convert the forecast years in the PCFs 2005/06 to the design years of the Study.

C.1.8 Airport The assumption of air passenger (excluding transit passengers) and air cargo (excluding transhipment) forecasts was provided by Planning Department under the NENT NDA Study and will be adopted for this Study for consistency. The details of the forecasts are shown in Table 29. Table 29 Airport Usage in the Design Years Parameter 2016 2021 2026 2031 Daily Air Passengers 109,900 126,800 146,300 168,800 Daily Air Cargo (Tonnes) 12,100 14,900 18,400 22,700

Source: The above forecasts were prepared by PlanD in February 2008 with reference to information from the Airport Authority HK. Note: 2026 forecast is estimated by interpolation between 2021 and 2030 data. 2031 forecast is estimated by extrapolation between 2021 and 2030 data.

C.1.9 Toll Assumptions Future tolls are assumed to remain constant in real terms. The same assumption adopted in the NENT NDA Study will be incorporated into the transport model for this Study. For government tunnels with an existing flat toll structure, the same flat toll structure will be maintained for future design years. Prevailing concessionary tolls on Western Harbour Crossing and Tai Lam Tunnel as at Oct 2007 are adopted. Toll assumptions in 2008 dollars are shown in Table 30 . Table 30 Toll Assumptions – 2008 Dollars Private/ Light Medium Heavy Goods Tractor Toll Facility Car Taxi Public Goods Goods Goods Van Unit Light Bus Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Lion Rock Tunnel 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Tate’s Cairn Tunnel 14 14 21 21 21 25 25 43 Tseung Kwan O Tunnel 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Shing Mun Tunnel 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Cross Harbour Tunnel 20 10 10 15 15 20 30 40 Western Harbour Crossing 1 45 40 55 55 55 80 110 140 Eastern Harbour Crossing 25 25 38 38 38 50 75 100 Aberdeen Tunnel 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Lantau Link 2 30 30 40 40 40 50 80 80 Tai Lam Tunnel (R3-CPS) 1 28 28 90 30 30 35 40 40 Route 8 Eagle Nest Tunnel 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 TKO-Lam Tin Tunnel 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

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Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation

Private/ Light Medium Heavy Goods Tractor Toll Facility Car Taxi Public Goods Goods Goods Van Unit Light Bus Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Tuen Mun - Chek Lap Kok Link 4 15 15 20 20 20 25 40 40 Tuen Mun Western Bypass 4 28 28 90 30 30 35 40 40

Source: Toll charges published by the operators. Note: 1. Concessionary Tolls in effect 2. Toll booths of Lantau Link are located in the eastbound direction only. The figures presented are 2-way tolls collected only in the eastbound direction 3. Being the parallel route to Tseung Kwan O Tunnel, the toll level of the future TKO-Lam Tin Tunnel is assumed as the TKO Tunnel toll as at 2008 4. The toll assumption is consistent with Tuen Mun - Chek Lap Kok Link Feasibility Study 5. Proposed highway projects (including the committed ones and those under planning) are shown in italics as their actual toll levels could only be determined nearer the time of opening

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Appendix C – Figure A1