Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation A Transport Modelling Approach and Validation A.1 Proposed Area of Influence The Area of Influence (AOI) of the traffic model is illustrated in Figure A1 . The AOI adopts the Study Area defined in the Study Brief as the basis with extension to cover not only the proposed NDAs at Kwu Tung North, Fanling North, Ping Che and Ta Kwu Ling, but also the New Territories to the north of ATC Screenline R-R, including Tai Po, Sheung Shui/ Fanling, Tuen Mun, Yuen Long and Tin Shui Wai districts. To examine the additional traffic which will distribute to all over the territory, other strategic highways providing main accesses for the proposed NDAs such as Fanling Highway, Tolo Highway, Tuen Mun Road, Tai Lam Tunnel, Yuen Long Highway and San Tin Highway etc. are covered within the AOI. A.2 Strategic Model Preparation Arup’s in-house territory transport model was developed using EMME software which comprises a traditional 4-stage model and is compatible with Transport Department’s Enhanced Comprehensive Transport Study – 3 (ECTS3) model. It has been well-validated to year 2005 by territory-wide cordons and screenlines and major corridors including Tolo Highway. It is hence recommended to adopt this model as a basis and update it using the latest available planning data and land use data for this study. With the availability of the 2006-based Territorial Population and Employment Data Matrices (TPEDM) land use data released and revised by Planning Department (PlanD) in May and July 2008 respectively, the base year model was developed for year 2006 and it was validated to 2006 traffic condition. The model input data for base year model setup is described in the following sections: A.2.1 Territorial Planning Data The 2006-based Territorial Population and Employment Data Matrices (TPEDM) summarises the land use data for base year 2006 and was provided by Planning Department. The key data is summarised in Table 1 . Table 1 Summary of TPEDM Data for Base Year 2006 Population Employment Hotel Room Hong Kong Island Central & Western 263,542 377,746 4,746 Wan Chai 192,494 275,644 8,392 HK Eastern 588,016 273,372 2,823 HK Southern 279,943 92,420 176 Sub-total 1,323,995 1,019,181 16,137 Kowloon Urban Yau Ma Tei 198,798 240,371 18,285 Mong Kok 137,413 119,221 2,999 Sham Shui Po 390,656 198,903 55 Kowloon City 371,887 176,124 2,453 Kwun Tong 594,471 282,511 3 Wong Tai Sin 429,846 94,631 0 Sub-total 2,123,072 1,111,761 23,795 Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc Page C-1 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd February 2010 Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation Population Employment Hotel Room New Territories Tsuen Wan 279,093 127,643 911 Kwai Chung 315,940 177,968 0 Tsing Yi 206,486 35,679 1,600 Tuen Mun 489,960 109,733 450 Yuen Long 143,775 50,237 26 Tin Shui Wai 272,217 30,742 561 Tai Po 252,714 73,122 40 Fanling/Sheung Shui 237,562 57,596 0 Shatin 431,749 160,760 1,065 Ma On Shan 194,997 30,620 831 Tseung Kwan O 348,877 64,488 0 North Lantau 89,245 68,649 2,545 Subtotal 3,262,616 987,237 8,029 Rural Rural NWNT 145,282 39,942 51 Rural NENT 78,079 21,247 0 Rural SENT 64,472 22,259 0 Rural SWNT 67,398 18,354 221 Sub-total 355,231 101,802 272 Total 7,064,914 3,219,981 48,233 Notes: • Population includes Usual Residents and Persons Other than Usual Residents Present in Hong Kong as at Mid-year • Persons Other than Usual Residents Present in Hong Kong as at Mid-year including Mobile Residents and Transients • According to the hotel statistics published in the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics (October 2007), the average hotel room occupancy for year 2006 was about 87% A.2.2 Highway and Railway Infrastructure Since the strategic model has been updated to year 2005, further update was required to introduce any highway and railway projects completed and operated in year 2006. In accordance with the webpage information of Highways Department and rail operators, the following highway and railway updates were incorporated into the strategic model for this study. Highway • Castle Peak Road Improvement between Area 2 and Sham Tseng, Tsuen Wan • Widening of Yuen Long Highway between Lam Tei and Shap Pat Heung Interchange Railway • Opening of AsiaWorld-Expo Station Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc Page C-2 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd February 2010 Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation A.2.3 Economic Growth According to the C&SD’s information released, the year-on-year growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real terms for base year 2006 was 7.0%. A.2.4 Vehicle Fleet Size The fleet size of Private Vehicles and Goods Vehicles is obtained from Transport Department as shown in Table 2 . The breakdowns of goods vehicle fleet size by goods vehicle type are based on information from Licensing Division/ TD. Table 2 Vehicle Fleet Size for the Base Year 2006 Private Vehicles Goods Vehicles Vehicle Private Taxi Goods Container Class Motorcycle LGV MGV HGV Car Van Vehicle Fleet Size 34,900 355,200 18,000 39,700 29,400 26,200 3,100 12,900 Sub-total 390,100 18,000 111,300 A.2.5 Cross Boundary Traffic Base Year 2006 cross boundary traffic statistics were extracted from Transport Department’s Monthly Traffic and Transport Digest, and are presented in Table 3. Table 3 Year 2006 Cross Boundary Vehicular Traffic (in Vehicles/Day) Cross Boundary Vehicle Class Lok Ma Chau Man Kam To Sha Tau Kok Total Bus/ Coach 3,120 238 263 3,621 GV 9,781 4,382 860 15,023 CT 9,028 2,177 295 11,500 Car 9,172 713 1,055 10,941 Total 31,101 7,511 2,473 41,085 A.2.6 Port Related Data The port related data includes container throughput, port back-up and open storage data. The container throughput was contained in the Study on Hong Kong Port Cargo Forecasts 2005/2006 commissioned by Transport and Housing Bureau. Land use data relating to container port back-up and open storage areas, on the other hand, was provided by Planning Department. The port related data is summarised in Table 4 . Table 4 Port Related Data for Base Year 2006 Productivity of CTs 1-9 Port Back-up Area (in Open Storage Area Year (in thousand TEUs per Year) Hectares) (in Hectares) 2006 16,050 413.18 583.79 A.2.7 Airport The total number of air passenger in 2006 was provided by Planning Department based on the information received from Airport Authority HK. The figures are summarised in Table 5. Table 5 Airport Usage in 2006 Parameter Total Average Daily Air Passengers 79,000 Daily Cargo (Tonnes) 7,900 Source: Information from Airport Authority HK provided by PlanD. A.2.8 Toll Data Base Year 2006 road and tunnel tolls were extracted from Transport Department’s Annual Transport Digest 2007, and is presented in Table 6. Table 6 Toll Data for Base Year 2006 Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc Page C-3 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd February 2010 Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation Private/ Light Medium Heavy Goods Tractor Toll Facility Car Taxi Public Goods Goods Goods Van Unit Light Bus Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Lion Rock Tunnel 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Tate’s Cairn Tunnel 12 12 18 18 18 23 23 38 Tseung Kwan O Tunnel 3 3 3 3 3 3 Shing Mun Tunnel 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Cross Harbour Tunnel 20 10 10 15 15 20 30 40 Western Harbour Crossing 1 40 35 50 55 55 80 110 140 Eastern Harbour Crossing 25 25 38 38 38 50 75 100 Aberdeen Tunnel 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Lantau Link 2 30 30 40 40 40 50 80 80 Tai Lam Tunnel (R3-CPS) 1 25 25 75 28 28 35 40 40 A.3 Base Year Model Validation A.3.1 Screenline and Observed Traffic Data To replicate the 2006 traffic conditions, this model was validated to the observed data obtained from 2006 Annual Traffic Census (ATC) traffic count data for Daily, AM and PM peak hour traffic in pcu/hour (by direction) at the following screenlines (also illustrated in Figure A1 ): • ATC Screenlines at Harbour Crossings; • ATC Kowloon External Cordon (Kowloon Urban Area Boundary); • ATC Tsing Yi External Cordon (Tsing Yi Area Boundary); • ATC Screenline R-R (North end of Tsuen Wan & Shatin); • ATC Screenline S-S (East End of Tuen Mun and Yuen Long); • ATC Screenline T-T (North End of Tai Po & Yuen Long); and • ATC Screenline Y-Y (Boundary between Tuen Mun & Yuen Long).