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Home , Dushanbe

Forecasting Sustainable Urbanization: Support For Sustainable Infrastructure Planning In Cities

Inception and Data Collection Workshop

17-18 February 2020 State Institution, Dushanbe Plaza Dushanbe, Opening and project introduction Session 1 Project introduction

1. Why focus on resource use?

2. Why focus on cities?

3. Why use forecasting? 120° 135° 150° 165° 180° 165° 150° 135° Anchorage ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION 60° FOR AND THE PACIFIC RUSSIAN UNITED STATES FEDERATION Bering Sea OF AMERICA Sea of Okhotsk ds Astana Sakhalin Islan Aleutian . Is l ri GE u OR Caspian K 45° G 45° I Vladivostok Black Sea A Sea Almaty UZ BEK Hokkaido United Nations ESCAP T'bilisi IS Sapporo T A URK N DEM. PEOPLE'S T MEN TAJIKISTAN P'yongyang A IST REP. OF KOREA Honshu R A N Dushanbe M E - AN Jammu Incheon NI ST A NI and A - u REP. OF Chiba NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN Mediterranean H Kashmir d Osaka ISLAMIC REPUBLIC n G a KOREA Sea d Shikoku OF F - hu A N a m p Wuhan b th Shanghai Kyushu P A - m 30 a a i 30 ° e T h ° r S - m K East . s I la T Is ia K s n A I u P New China y H Gu Karachi k aw lf G u aii u LAO Sea y an R lf o Guangzhou R Is e f la d P.D.R. n d − United Nations Economic and Social S s , China e M Northern a a ca o, China Mariana Mumbai Naypyitaw Philippine Hyderabad Luzon Islands South China Sea Saipan 15° 15° Bay of A VIET NAM Hagåtña ESCAP HQ DI BO Sea Guam Arabian Sea Bengal AM MARSHALL C nh Pe Commission for Asia and the Pacific Colombo m Mindanao Koror ISLANDS Sri Jayewardenepura Kotte Phno Palikir PALAU Majuro Northern Line DARUSSALAM Male Celebes FEDERATED STATES Islands S Sea OF MICRONESIA u Tarawa m Gilbert Is. KIRIBATI Equator 0° Members: a 0° te Sulawesi NAURU Yaren Nauru r Phoenix Is. a PAPUA Southern Line Nepal NEW GUINEA SOLOMON Islands Netherlands ISLANDS TUVALU Surabaya French Marquesas Azerbaijan New Zealand Bogor Port Moresby Funafuti Tokelau Is. − UN’s regional hub Java TIMOR- Arafura Sea Honiara Polynesia Is. Bangladesh LESTE American Bhutan SAMOA Tu Palau Apia Samoa amo Brunei Darussalam Papua New Guinea Coral Sea Pago Pago tu A 15 rch 15 ° Philippines ip ° Port-Vila FIJI Papeete el China ag Republic of Korea VANUATU Niue o Suva Alofi So Democratic People's Republic of Korea Russian Federation ci New Avarua ety Federated States of Micronesia Is. Samoa Caledonia Nuku'alofa T Nouméa C ub Fiji Singapore TONGA o ua o i Is France Solomon Islands AUSTRALIA k . Pitcairn − 53 member States, 9 associate members Isl a Sri Lanka nds India 30° Tajikistan 30° Indonesia Thailand Perth Islamic Republic of Iran Timor-Leste Sydney SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN Japan Tonga Canberra Auckland Kazakhstan Turkey Melbourne Tasman Sea Kiribati North Island Kyrgyzstan Tuvalu NEW ZEALAND − HQ in Bangkok, 4 subregional offices (Almaty) Lao People's Democratic Republic Tasmania Wellington Malaysia United States of America ESCAP Headquarters, Regional or sub-regional offices 45° Maldives 45° Marshall Islands Vanuatu South Island Mongolia Viet Nam Myanmar The boundaries and names shown and the designations used Associate members: on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. American Samoa Guam 0 1000 2000 3000 km − ESCAP promotes cooperation among Commonwealth of the Hong Kong, China Dotted line represents approximately the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan. Northern Mariana Islands Macao, China The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been Cook Islands New Caledonia agreed upon by the parties. 0 1000 2000 mi 60° French Polynesia Niue 60° 30° 45° 60° 75° 90° 105° 120° 135° 150° 165° 180° 165° 150° 135°

countries to achieve inclusive and sustainable Map No. 3974 Rev. 18 UNITED NATIONS Department of Field Support development: August 2014 Cartographic Section • Policy dialogues, regional cooperation, intergovernmental platforms • Results-oriented projects, technical assistance, capacity building • Research and analysis, knowledge sharing − Interdisciplinary expertise covering urban, environment, energy, disaster risk reduction, trade, transport etc. Project aim −To support the implementation of resource efficient and environmentally friendly planning policies for sustainable cities −3 project cities: • Dushanbe in Tajikistan • Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan • city in China −Why did we identify Dushanbe to join this project? • High resource intensities in Tajikistan Project implementation in Dushanbe

1) collect data on urbanization, resource flows, and environmental trends in Dushanbe

2) apply a forecasting tool to better understand future impacts of urban growth

3) develop policy pathways based on forecasted resource efficiency scenarios to plan sustainable infrastructure and achieve city targets

4) disseminate the lessons learned and the forecasting tool throughout the Asia-Pacific region, spotlighting the experience in Dushanbe Objectives of the workshop

1. To broaden understanding of the relationship between urbanization and resource consumption, and to review the policy environment of urbanization, resource flows, and environmental trends in Dushanbe; 2. To identify data to support a baseline analysis and projections for resource use and intensities in Dushanbe based on population and GDP estimates to 2025 and 2030; and 3. To develop a project plan and establish a Working Group to support the project’s implementation in Dushanbe. 1. Why focus on resource use? Historic model of development

−Historic models of development focused on economic growth −Assumption was that economic growth would naturally lead to social development and poverty reduction “Sustainable development Sustainable development meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” Brundtland Report, 1987 Resource Efficiency

Source: World Green Economy Organization (WGEO) & ESCAP Measuring resource efficiency

Resource Resource use = intensity Economic output (GDP)

−The lower the resource intensity, the better −A decrease in resource intensity over time means you are becoming more resource efficient Population of Dushanbe

1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 Millions 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Source: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision Tajikistan GDP (2011 PPP dollars)

30,000

25,000 24,131

20,000 18,584 14,560 15,000 10,964 10,000 7,334

Million (2011 PPP dollars) Million dollars) (2011 PPP 5,000

0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source: ESCAP Online Statistical Database Material intensity (DMC per GDP)

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0 Kg per 1 USD (2010) GDP

0.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Tajikistan North and Asia-Pacific

Source: ESCAP Online Statistical Database Material intensity

Tajikistan Asia-Pacific average

Source: World Green Economy Organization (WGEO) & ESCAP Resource decoupling Using fewer resources (e.g. materials, water, energy, land) to maintain economic growth GDP + resource use relative decoupling

today future absolute decoupling planetary boundaries sufficient absolute – decoupling Example of resource decoupling: CO2 emissions

In 2019, CO2 emissions were unchanged, but the world economy grew by 2.9%

= relative decoupling

Source: IEA Example of resource decoupling: material use

Source: UNEP (2013). City-Level Decoupling Impact decoupling Using resources wisely over their lifetime to reduce environmental impacts

Source: UNEP (2013). City-Level Decoupling Example of impact decoupling: air pollution

Source: UNEP (2013). City-Level Decoupling 2. Why focus on cities? Resource use in cities

−Cities are the powerhouses of economic growth, with 80% of global GDP being produced within them −But cities also account for most of the world’s resource use, e.g.: • 60-80% of global energy consumption • 75% of carbon emissions Material consumption in cities −Cities account for about 60% of total consumption of raw materials (including sand, gravel, iron ore, coal and wood) −Material use is accelerating: • China used more cement between 2011-2013 than the USA used during the whole 20th century

Source: IRP (2018). The Weight of Cities Waste generation in cities

−The world's cities generate 2.01 billion tonnes of municipal solid waste annually • at least 1/3 not managed in an environmentally safe manner −This is expected to grow to 3.40 billion tonnes by 2050 Water resource use in cities

−Increasing groundwater stress with unsustainable withdrawals of freshwater • 29/48 countries were “water insecure” in Asia in 2016 −Freshwater sources in Asia have been already over-extracted and this situation will be worsened by increased urbanization, population growth, food production and climate change −There is insufficient infrastructure to meet demand for domestic water, manufacturing, and thermal electricity generation • By 2050, 3.4 billion Asians could suffer from water stress Land use and urban sprawl Dushanbe: 1984 vs 2018

Source: Google Timelapse Asia-Pacific is rapidly urbanizing

Source: ESCAP, 2019, The Future of Asian & Pacific Cities A moment of opportunity for cities −decisions made now will have long-term impacts, and Asia-Pacific cities have an opportunity to set themselves on more sustainable and inclusive trajectories −most urban infrastructure investments, especially environmental ones, are capital intensive and long-term −poor investment choices can create a lock-in effect and increase the challenge to establish sustainable development and resource- efficient trajectories −using resources more efficiently saves municipalities money • e.g. reducing waste management and water treatment costs Cities can drive sustainable development

Therefore, the decisions and actions required to drive society towards more sustainable patterns of production and consumption will have to be made, to a large extent, in the world’s cities 3. Why use forecasting? Why use forecasting?

− Planning • Develop scenarios • Translate targets for efficiencies in resource use into policy actions • Prioritize actions and investments – potential cost savings

− Strengthen the evidence base • Data-informed decision-making • Leverage political support • Leverage financial resources

− Validate existing initiatives Forecasting tool 1. Business-as-usual scenario a) User inputs historic data and projections for population growth and economic growth b) User inputs historic data on resource use across 6 resource trends: i. material use ii. solid waste generation iii. energy consumption iv. greenhouse gas emissions v. water consumption vi. land use c) Business-as-usual scenario through to 2030 generated and visualized 2. Alternative scenarios forecasted a) User selects from a list of policy alternatives and technical solutions to forecast scenarios with altered resource intensities b) Scenarios through to 2030 generated and visualized c) Policy pathways are developed to support the achievement of Bishkek’s existing plans and targets Therefore, the tool will enable you to ‘reverse plan’ – to translate city targets into policies and infrastructure planning Examples of potential solutions to be featured in the forecasting tool −Solid waste: incentives for waste segregation at source; ensuring adequate waste collection infrastructure is in place for segregated waste −Energy: green building standards; replacing street lighting with LED lights −Water: treating wastewater from public buildings on-site for re-use; maintenance of water delivery systems to repair leaks and reduce water losses; capturing rainwater to replenish aquifers