Impacts of Two Tropical Cyclones Experiencing Extratropical Transition During Northward Progression on the Rainfall of Liaodong Peninsula
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Topographic Influence on the Motion of Tropical Cyclones Landfalling on the Coast of China
OCTOBER 2016 C H E N A N D W U 1615 Topographic Influence on the Motion of Tropical Cyclones Landfalling on the Coast of China XIAOYU CHEN Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China LIGUANG WU Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, and State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China (Manuscript received 17 March 2016, in final form 10 August 2016) ABSTRACT A few recent numerical studies investigated the influence of a continent, which is much larger in size than islands, on the track of a landfalling tropical cyclone. It has been found that land surface roughness and temperature tend to make a tropical cyclone move toward the continent. In this study, the effect of the elevated terrain on the western part of mainland China on landfall tracks is examined through idealized numerical experiments, in which an initially axisymmetric vortex is embedded into a monsoon trough and takes a landfall track across China’s mainland. It is found that the effect of the elevated terrain on the western part of mainland China can enhance the southerly environmental flows in the low and midtroposphere, leading to an additional landward component of tropical cyclone motion, suggesting that forecasts for tropical cyclone tracks over land should take into consideration the change in thermal condition over the continent. -
Typhoon Neoguri Disaster Risk Reduction Situation Report1 DRR Sitrep 2014‐001 ‐ Updated July 8, 2014, 10:00 CET
Typhoon Neoguri Disaster Risk Reduction Situation Report1 DRR sitrep 2014‐001 ‐ updated July 8, 2014, 10:00 CET Summary Report Ongoing typhoon situation The storm had lost strength early Tuesday July 8, going from the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane to a Category 3 on the Saffir‐Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which means devastating damage is expected to occur, with major damage to well‐built framed homes, snapped or uprooted trees and power outages. It is approaching Okinawa, Japan, and is moving northwest towards South Korea and the Philippines, bringing strong winds, flooding rainfall and inundating storm surge. Typhoon Neoguri is a once‐in‐a‐decade storm and Japanese authorities have extended their highest storm alert to Okinawa's main island. The Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2013 ranked Japan as first among countries in the world for both annual and maximum potential losses due to cyclones. It is calculated that Japan loses on average up to $45.9 Billion due to cyclonic winds every year and that it can lose a probable maximum loss of $547 Billion.2 What are the most devastating cyclones to hit Okinawa in recent memory? There have been 12 damaging cyclones to hit Okinawa since 1945. Sustaining winds of 81.6 knots (151 kph), Typhoon “Winnie” caused damages of $5.8 million in August 1997. Typhoon "Bart", which hit Okinawa in October 1999 caused damages of $5.7 million. It sustained winds of 126 knots (233 kph). The most damaging cyclone to hit Japan was Super Typhoon Nida (reaching a peak intensity of 260 kph), which struck Japan in 2004 killing 287 affecting 329,556 people injuring 1,483, and causing damages amounting to $15 Billion. -
Ensemble Forecast of a Typhoon Flood Event
AUGUST 2001 MACKEY AND KRISHNAMURTI 399 Ensemble Forecast of a Typhoon Flood Event BRIAN P. M ACKEY AND T. N . K RISHNAMURTI Department of Meteorology, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida (Manuscript received 9 September 1999, in ®nal form 2 February 2001) ABSTRACT A high-resolution nested regional spectral model and an ensemble prediction system are combined to forecast the track, intensity, and ¯ooding precipitation arising from Typhoon Winnie of August 1997, which eventually reached supertyphoon status. The prediction of ¯oods is operationally challenging since rainfall distributions can have a high degree of spatial and temporal variability. Rare event probabilities, however, can be estimated more readily via ensemble forecasting. This technique is used to evaluate a typhoon ¯ood event in which rainfall amounts greater than 200 mm led to landslides and major ¯ooding of crops. Seven-member ensembles were generated using an EOF-based technique. An experiment was conducted with a regional model resolution of 0.58 latitude. A Mercator transform grid with a grid mesh size of approximately 55 km in the east±west and 48 km in the north±south was employed. The results indicated very accurate track and intensity forecasts for both the control and ensemble mean. Track position errors remained below 150 km through 72 h, while intensity errors were approximately5ms21 at landfall. Qualitatively, the overall 5-day precipitation patterns appeared realistic and compared favorably with the observed data, while, quantitatively, the correlation coef®cient was near 0.6. For stations near and north of where Winnie made landfall, ensemble-based predictions performed well. While the ensemble mean often underestimated the heaviest rainfall totals by approximately 25%±50%, the maximum values within the ensemble spread either exceeded or came within 10%±15% of the station totals. -
The Use of a Spectral Nudging Technique to Determine the Impact of Environmental Factors on the Track of Typhoon Megi (2010)
atmosphere Article The Use of a Spectral Nudging Technique to Determine the Impact of Environmental Factors on the Track of Typhoon Megi (2010) Xingliang Guo ID and Wei Zhong * Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 211101, China; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 3 October 2017; Accepted: 7 December 2017; Published: 20 December 2017 Abstract: Sensitivity tests based on a spectral nudging (SN) technique are conducted to analyze the effect of large-scale environmental factors on the movement of typhoon Megi (2010). The error of simulated typhoon track is effectively reduced using SN and the impact of dynamical factors is more significant than that of thermal factors. During the initial integration and deflection period of Megi (2010), the local steering flow of the whole and lower troposphere is corrected by a direct large-scale wind adjustment, which improves track simulation. However, environmental field nudging may weaken the impacts of terrain and typhoon system development in the landfall period, resulting in large simulated track errors. Comparison of the steering flow and inner structure of the typhoon reveals that the large-scale circulation influences the speed and direction of typhoon motion by: (1) adjusting the local steering flow and (2) modifying the environmental vertical wind shear to change the location and symmetry of the inner severe convection. Keywords: spectral nudging; typhoon track; environmental factors 1. Introduction Although the forecasting accuracy of typhoon tracks has been effectively improved in recent years through observations, numerical simulations, data assimilation and studies of the physical mechanisms affecting typhoon movement [1], the accurate prediction of abnormal typhoon tracks, including their continuous changes and abrupt deflection, is still not possible [2]. -
Paleo-Tropical Cyclone Deposits in the Taiwan Strait
Paleo‐tropical cyclone deposits in the Taiwan Strait: Processes, examples, and conceptual model Shahin E. Dashtgard, Ludvig Löwemark, Romain Vaucher, Yuyen Pan, Jessica Pilarcyzk, and Sebastien Castelltort Supplementary Data File Part A: Summary of all tropical cyclones that impacted Taiwan between 1982 and 2017 Summary of Typhoons in Taiwan 1982 to 2017 ** The number of events refers to how many times each storm was counted. For example, if a storm cross Taiwan through the central area and then the northern area (Fig. 2) it would be counted twice. Storms for which the eye was more than 50 km from the shoreline are only counted once based on the closest point of the eye to the shoreline. If the closest point is in the south, then the event is assigned to the south region (Fig. 7). OL = overland CE = central‐east TD = tropical Depression N = north CW = central‐west TS = Tropical Storm NE = northeast S = south TY = typhoon NW = northwest SE = southeast STY = super‐typhoon Acronyms C = central SW = southwest No. Typhoon Name Start Date Strongest Level of Typhoon Closest Distance Posistion Relative Number of level of at closest point / to eye to Taiwan to Taiwan events by Year Typhoon landfall Margin (km) area 1TS 06W 1982 ‐ TESS 1982‐06‐28 TS TD 158 SW 1 2TS 08W 1982 ‐ VAL 1982‐07‐04 TS TS 154 NE 1 3TY 10W 1982 ‐ ANDY 1982‐07‐21 TY4 TY2 0 OL ‐ S1 4TY 12W 1982 ‐ CECIL 1982‐08‐04 TY4 TY3 152 NE 1 5TY 13W 1982 ‐ DOT 1982‐08‐08 TY1 TS 0 OL ‐ S1 6TY 15W 1982 ‐ FAYE 1982‐08‐20 TY2 TD 39 S 1 7 1983 STY 04W 1983 ‐ WAYNE 1983‐07‐20 STY4/5 TY2/3 80 -
Radar Observation of Precipitation Asymmetries in Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall on East China Coast
MAY 2013 WU ET AL. 81 RADAR OBSERVATION OF PRECIPITATION ASYMMETRIES IN TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL ON EAST CHINA COAST 1,2 2,* 3 4 DAN WU , KUN ZHAO , BEN JONG -DAO JOU , WEN -CHAU LEE 1Shanghai Typhoon Institute/China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 2Key Laboratory for Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE and School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 3Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei 4The National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder ABSTRACT This study explores, for the first time, the asymmetric distribution of precipitation in tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall along east China coast using reflectivity data collected from coastal Doppler radars at mainland China and Taiwan. Six TCs (Saomai, Khanun, Wipha, Matsa, Rananim and Krosa) from 2004 to 2007 are ex- amined. The temporal and spatial evolution of these TCs’ inner and outer core asymmetric precipitation patterns before and after landfall is investigated. The radius of inner-core region is a function of the size of a TC apart from a fixed radius (100 km) adopted in previous studies. All six TCs possessed distinct asymmetric precipitation patterns between the inner- and outer- core regions. The amplitude of asymmetry decreases with the increasing TC intensity and it displays an ascending (descend- ing) trend in the inner (outer) core. In the inner-core region, the heavy rainfall with reflectivity factor above 40 dBZ tends to locate at the downshear side before landfall. Four cases have precipitation maxima on the downshear left side, in agreement with previous studies. As TCs approaching land (~ 2 hr before landfall), their precipitation maxima generally shift to the front quadrant of the motion partly due to the interaction of TC with the land surface. -
Nation-Building Tasks Being Carried out Through Special Projects To
Established 1914 Volume XIII, Number 122 12th Waxing of Wagaung 1367 ME Tuesday, 16 August, 2005 Nation-building tasks being carried out through special projects to ensure cent-per-cent, equitable development of all regions of the country Strive in harmony for emergence of modern nation Prime Minister General Soe Win inspects development tasks in Pauk Prime Minister General Soe Win meets officials, social organizations and entrepreneurs. — MNA YANGON, 15 Aug — grading tasks and the rector, professors and frankly professors, lectur- the hospital, Prime Min- Superintendent Dr Than Prime Minister General PBANRDA Minister Col faculty members of the ers, demonstrator and tu- ister General Soe Win Than Aye and officials. Soe Win, accompanied by Thein Nyunt gave a sup- university, Rector U Soe tors. Later, the prime and party inspected the The prime minister Member of the State Peace plementary report. Myint reported on brief minister and party went wards, laboratory, medi- greeted doctors and ful- and Development Council Afterwards, the history of the university, to Pauk Township 16-bed cal store and X-ray room filled the requirements. Lt-Gen Ye Myint, Chair- prime minister and party the area, construction of hospital by helicopter. At together with Medical (See page 16) man of Sagaing Division went to Pakokku Univer- buildings in the university, Peace and Development sity and inspected con- the number of students and Council Commander of struction of the main build- staff strength. 187 villages out of the 273 in Pauk Township North-West Command ing of the university. Rec- After the meeting, have been supplied with safe drinking water. -
A WRF-Based Tool for Forecast Sensitivity to the Initial Perturbation: the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations Versus Th
JANUARY 2017 Y U E T A L . 187 A WRF-Based Tool for Forecast Sensitivity to the Initial Perturbation: The Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations versus the First Singular Vector Method and Comparison to MM5 a,b c,d a e f HUIZHEN YU, HONGLI WANG, ZHIYONG MENG, MU MU, XIANG-YU HUANG, g AND XIN ZHANG a Laboratory for Climate and Ocean–Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China b Qingdao Meteorological Bureau, Shandong, China c Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado d Global Systems Division, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado e Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China f Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, Singapore g IBM Research–China, Beijing, China (Manuscript received 12 September 2015, in final form 22 October 2016) ABSTRACT A forecast sensitivity to initial perturbation (FSIP) analysis tool for the WRF Model was developed. The tool includes two modules respectively based on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method and the first singular vector (FSV) method. The FSIP tool can be used to identify regions of sensitivity for targeted observation research and important influential weather systems for a given forecast metric. This paper compares the performance of the FSIP tool to its MM5 counterpart, and demonstrates how CNOP, local CNOP (a kind of conditional nonlinear suboptimal perturbation), and FSV were detected using their evolutions of cost function. The column-integrated features of the perturbations were generally similar between the two models. More significant differences were apparent in the details of their vertical distribu- tion. -
Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities
Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, SPM4 Coasts and Communities Coordinating Lead Authors: Michael Oppenheimer (USA), Bruce C. Glavovic (New Zealand/South Africa) Lead Authors: Jochen Hinkel (Germany), Roderik van de Wal (Netherlands), Alexandre K. Magnan (France), Amro Abd-Elgawad (Egypt), Rongshuo Cai (China), Miguel Cifuentes-Jara (Costa Rica), Robert M. DeConto (USA), Tuhin Ghosh (India), John Hay (Cook Islands), Federico Isla (Argentina), Ben Marzeion (Germany), Benoit Meyssignac (France), Zita Sebesvari (Hungary/Germany) Contributing Authors: Robbert Biesbroek (Netherlands), Maya K. Buchanan (USA), Ricardo Safra de Campos (UK), Gonéri Le Cozannet (France), Catia Domingues (Australia), Sönke Dangendorf (Germany), Petra Döll (Germany), Virginie K.E. Duvat (France), Tamsin Edwards (UK), Alexey Ekaykin (Russian Federation), Donald Forbes (Canada), James Ford (UK), Miguel D. Fortes (Philippines), Thomas Frederikse (Netherlands), Jean-Pierre Gattuso (France), Robert Kopp (USA), Erwin Lambert (Netherlands), Judy Lawrence (New Zealand), Andrew Mackintosh (New Zealand), Angélique Melet (France), Elizabeth McLeod (USA), Mark Merrifield (USA), Siddharth Narayan (US), Robert J. Nicholls (UK), Fabrice Renaud (UK), Jonathan Simm (UK), AJ Smit (South Africa), Catherine Sutherland (South Africa), Nguyen Minh Tu (Vietnam), Jon Woodruff (USA), Poh Poh Wong (Singapore), Siyuan Xian (USA) Review Editors: Ayako Abe-Ouchi (Japan), Kapil Gupta (India), Joy Pereira (Malaysia) Chapter Scientist: Maya K. Buchanan (USA) This chapter should be cited as: Oppenheimer, M., B.C. Glavovic , J. Hinkel, R. van de Wal, A.K. Magnan, A. Abd-Elgawad, R. Cai, M. Cifuentes-Jara, R.M. DeConto, T. Ghosh, J. Hay, F. Isla, B. Marzeion, B. Meyssignac, and Z. Sebesvari, 2019: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities. -
Huang Zhen (黄 振), PU Wen-Yao 3 (濮文耀)
Vol.16 No.1 JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY March 2009 Article ID: 1006-8775(2010) 01-077-05 VERIFICATION OF TYPHOON FORECASTS BY THE GRAPES MODEL 1 2 1 SONG Yv (宋 煜), YE Cheng-zhi (叶成志) , Huang Zhen (黄 振), PU Wen-yao 3 (濮文耀) (1. Dalian Meteorological Observatory, Dalian 116001 China; 2. Hunan Meteorological Observatory, Changsha 410007 China; 3. Dalian Weather Modification Office, Dalian 116001 China) Abstract: Four landfalling typhoon cases in 2005 were selected for a numerical simulation study with the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) model. The preliminary assessment results of the performance of the model, including the predictions of typhoon track, landfall time, location and intensity, etc., are presented and the sources of errors are analyzed. The 24-hour distance forecast error of the typhoon center by the model is shown to be about 131 km, while the 48-hour error is 252 km. The model was relatively more skilful at forecasts of landfall time and locations than those of intensity at landfall. On average, the 24-hour forecasts were slightly better than the 48-hour ones. An analysis of data impacts indicates that the assimilation of unconventional observation data is essential for the improvement of the model simulation. The model could also be improved by increasing model resolution to simulate the mesoscale and fine scale systems and by improving methods of terrain refinement processing. Key words: GRAPES model; landfalling typhoon; verification CLC number: P444 Document code: A doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-8775.2010.01.011 1 INTRODUCTION errors of typhoon paths issued by the Central Meteorological Observatory of China were 120 km Landfalls of typhoons in 2005 were and 198 km, respectively. -
Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts And
SECOND ORDER DRAFT Chapter 4 IPCC SR Ocean and Cryosphere 1 2 Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities 3 4 Coordinating Lead Authors: Michael Oppenheimer (USA), Bruce Glavovic (New Zealand) 5 6 Lead Authors: Amro Abd-Elgawad (Egypt), Rongshuo Cai (China), Miguel Cifuentes-Jara (Costa Rica), 7 Rob Deconto (USA), Tuhin Ghosh (India), John Hay (Cook Islands), Jochen Hinkel (Germany), Federico 8 Isla (Argentina), Alexandre K. Magnan (France), Ben Marzeion (Germany), Benoit Meyssignac (France), 9 Zita Sebesvari (Hungary), AJ Smit (South Africa), Roderik van de Wal (Netherlands) 10 11 Contributing Authors: Maya Buchanan (USA), Gonéri Le Cozannet (France), Catia Domingues 12 (Australia), Petra Döll (Germany), Virginie K.E. Duvat (France), Tamsin Edwards (UK), Alexey Ekaykin 13 (Russian Federation), Miguel D. Fortes (Philippines), Thomas Frederikse (Netherlands), Jean-Pierre Gattuso 14 (France), Robert Kopp (USA), Erwin Lambert (Netherlands), Andrew Mackintosh (New Zealand), 15 Angélique Melet (France), Elizabeth McLeod (USA), Mark Merrifield (USA), Siddharth Narayan (US), 16 Robert J. Nicholls (UK), Fabrice Renaud (UK), Jonathan Simm (UK), Jon Woodruff (USA), Poh Poh Wong 17 (Singapore), Siyuan Xian (USA) 18 19 Review Editors: Ayako Abe-Ouchi (Japan), Kapil Gupta (India), Joy Pereira (Malaysia) 20 21 Chapter Scientist: Maya Buchanan (USA) 22 23 Date of Draft: 16 November 2018 24 25 Notes: TSU Compiled Version 26 27 28 Table of Contents 29 30 Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 2 31 4.1 Purpose, Scope, and Structure of the Chapter ...................................................................................... 6 32 4.1.1 Themes of this Chapter ................................................................................................................... 6 33 4.1.2 Advances in this Chapter Beyond AR5 and SR1.5 ........................................................................ -
Causes of the Unusual Coastal Flooding Generated by Typhoon Winnie on the West Coast of Korea
Natural Hazards 29: 485–500, 2003. 485 © 2003 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands. Causes of the Unusual Coastal Flooding Generated by Typhoon Winnie on the West Coast of Korea I.-J. MOON1,I.S.OH2,T.MURTY3 and Y.-H. YOUN4 1University of Rhode Island, Graduate School of Oceanography, Narragansett, RI 02882, U.S.A. (E-mail: [email protected]); 2Seoul National University, Department of Oceanography and Research Institute of Oceanography, Seoul 151-742, Korea; 3W. F. Baird & Associates, Coastal Engineers Ltd., Ottawa, Canada; 4Korea Meteorological Administration, Meteorological Research Institute, Seoul 151-742, Korea (Received: 30 October 2000; accepted: 11 February 2002) Abstract. On 19 August 1997 Typhoon Winnie brought unusually strong and extensive coastal flooding from storm surges to the west coast of Korea, which was far enough from the typhoon’s center to lack significant local wind and pressure forcing. Sea levels at some tidal stations broke 36-year records and resulted in property damages of $18,000,000. This study investigated the causes of the unusual high sea levels by using an Astronomical-Meteorological Index (AMI) and a coupled ocean wave-circulation model developed by the present authors. The AMI analysis and the numerical simulation of the surge event showed that the major cause of the high sea levels was not the standard inverse barometric effect supplemented by water piling up along the coast by the wind field of the typhoon as is usual for a typical storm surge, but rather an enhanced tidal forcing from the perigean spring tide and water transported into the Yellow Sea by the currents generated by the typhoon.