DOCSLIB.ORG

Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts And

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts And SECOND ORDER DRAFT Chapter 4 IPCC SR Ocean and Cryosphere 1 2 Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities 3 4 Coordinating Lead Authors: Michael Oppenheimer (USA), Bruce Glavovic (New Zealand) 5 6 Lead Authors: Amro Abd-Elgawad (Egypt), Rongshuo Cai (China), Miguel Cifuentes-Jara (Costa Rica), 7 Rob Deconto (USA), Tuhin Ghosh (India), John Hay (Cook Islands), Jochen Hinkel (Germany), Federico 8 Isla (Argentina), Alexandre K. Magnan (France), Ben Marzeion (Germany), Benoit Meyssignac (France), 9 Zita Sebesvari (Hungary), AJ Smit (South Africa), Roderik van de Wal (Netherlands) 10 11 Contributing Authors: Maya Buchanan (USA), Gonéri Le Cozannet (France), Catia Domingues 12 (Australia), Petra Döll (Germany), Virginie K.E. Duvat (France), Tamsin Edwards (UK), Alexey Ekaykin 13 (Russian Federation), Miguel D. Fortes (Philippines), Thomas Frederikse (Netherlands), Jean-Pierre Gattuso 14 (France), Robert Kopp (USA), Erwin Lambert (Netherlands), Andrew Mackintosh (New Zealand), 15 Angélique Melet (France), Elizabeth McLeod (USA), Mark Merrifield (USA), Siddharth Narayan (US), 16 Robert J. Nicholls (UK), Fabrice Renaud (UK), Jonathan Simm (UK), Jon Woodruff (USA), Poh Poh Wong 17 (Singapore), Siyuan Xian (USA) 18 19 Review Editors: Ayako Abe-Ouchi (Japan), Kapil Gupta (India), Joy Pereira (Malaysia) 20 21 Chapter Scientist: Maya Buchanan (USA) 22 23 Date of Draft: 16 November 2018 24 25 Notes: TSU Compiled Version 26 27 28 Table of Contents 29 30 Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 2 31 4.1 Purpose, Scope, and Structure of the Chapter ...................................................................................... 6 32 4.1.1 Themes of this Chapter ................................................................................................................... 6 33 4.1.2 Advances in this Chapter Beyond AR5 and SR1.5 ......................................................................... 7 34 4.2 Physical Basis for Sea Level Change and Associated Hazards .......................................................... 10 35 4.2.1 Processes of Sea Level Change .................................................................................................... 10 36 4.2.2 Observed Changes in Sea Level (Past and Present) .................................................................... 13 37 4.2.3 Projections of Sea Level Change ................................................................................................. 31 38 4.2.4 Synthesis of the Physics of Sea Level for Low-lying Islands and Coasts ..................................... 57 39 Box 4.1: Case Studies of Coastal Hazard and Response ............................................................................ 59 40 4.3 Exposure, Vulnerability, Impacts and Risk Related to Sea Level Rise ............................................ 66 41 4.3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 66 42 Box 4.2: Methodological Advances in Exposure and Vulnerability Assessments .................................... 66 43 4.3.2 Dimensions Exposure and Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise ......................................................... 69 44 4.3.3 Observed Impacts, and Current and Future Risk of Sea Level Rise ............................................ 77 45 4.3.4 Conclusion on Coastal Risk ............................................................................................................ 86 46 4.4 Responses to Sea Level Rise .................................................................................................................. 89 47 4.4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 89 48 4.4.2 Types of Responses ....................................................................................................................... 90 49 4.4.3 Observed and Projected Responses, their Costs, Benefits, Co-benefits, Negative Consequences, 50 Efficiency and Governance .......................................................................................................... 92 51 4.4.4 Approaches for Making Social Choices and Appraising and Institutionalizing Adaptation 52 Pathways .................................................................................................................................... 112 53 4.4.5 Implementing Sea Level Rise Responses at the Local Level: Enablers, Barriers and Lessons 54 Learned ....................................................................................................................................... 122 55 FAQ 4.1: What challenges does certain sea level rise present to coastal communities? ....................... 130 56 References ..................................................................................................................................................... 132 57 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 4-1 Total pages: 174 SECOND ORDER DRAFT Chapter 4 IPCC SR Ocean and Cryosphere 1 Executive Summary 2 3 Sea Level Change 4 5 1) Observations show that global mean sea level (GMSL) is rising and accelerating and it will continue 6 to rise over many centuries. Glaciers and polar ice sheets are now the dominant source of sea level rise 1 7 (very high confidence ). During the Last Interglacial period (LIG) 130 to 115 thousand years ago, these 8 polar ice sheets contributed 6-9 m to sea level above present-day at a time when Earth was 0.5°C–1°C 9 warmer than preindustrial time (high confidence), providing additional evidence of high sensitivity to modest 10 warming (medium confidence). However, differences in incident solar radiation between the LIG and today 11 complicate the relationship between past temperature change and sea level. The Mid Pliocene Warm Period 12 (~3 million years ago) was 1.9°C–3.6°C warmer than pre-industrial, and sea level was higher than during the 13 LIG (high confidence), but the maximum level remains deeply uncertain. The rate of past ice-sheet mass 14 change and hence the rate of sea level rise during these periods remain very uncertain {4.2.2.1, 4.2.2.2, 15 4.2.2.6}. 16 17 2) Human activity has been the dominant cause of global mean sea level rise since 1970 (high 18 confidence). Sea level rise (SLR) at the end of the 21st century will be strongly dependent on the global 19 emission scenario followed, particularly as a result of Antarctica’s contribution under RCP8.5 (high 20 confidence). Greenhouse gas mitigation envisioned in low-emission scenarios (e.g., RCP2.6) sharply reduces 21 but does not eliminate risk to low-lying coastlines and islands from SLR and extreme sea levels (ESL). 22 Lower emission scenarios lead to slower rates of SLR resulting in a wider range of adaptation options. For 23 the first half of the 21st century differences among the scenarios are small. Few individual ESL events or 24 regional-to-local mean sea level changes have as yet been attributed to climate change {4.2.1.2, 4.2.2.6}. 2 25 3) Different modelling studies demonstrate that under high emissions scenarios, Antarctica will likely 26 contribute several tens of centimetres of sea level rise by the end of the century (medium confidence). 27 Projections of global mean SLR under RCP2.6 result in 0.39 m (0.26–0.52 m, likely range) for the period 28 2081–2100, and 0.42 m (0.28–0.57 m) in 2100. Projections of global mean SLR under RCP4.5 results in 29 0.48 m (0.34–0.63 m, likely range) for the period 2081–2100, and 0.55 m (0.39–0.71 m) in 2100. Projections 30 of global mean SLR under RCP8.5 results in 0.78 m (0.47–1.09 m, likely range) for the period 2081–2100, 31 and 0.97 m (0.55–1.40 m) in 2100. The rate of SLR is estimated to be 19 mm/yr under RCP8.5 in 2100. This 32 magnitude, rate and range for RCP8.5 are higher than earlier assessments {4.2.3.1}. 33 4) Processes controlling the timing of future ice-shelf collapse and a possible Marine Ice Cliff 34 Instability (MICI) make Antarctica’s contribution to future sea level rise deeply uncertain for 35 outcomes with SLR higher than the likely range (Cross-Chapter Box 3 in Chapter 1). Long term evolution 36 of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond the end of the 21st century remains deeply uncertain as ice sheet models 37 lack realistic representations of some of the underlying physical processes. The few studies available 38 addressing century to millennial timescales indicate multi-metre rise in sea level for RCP8.5 (medium 39 confidence) {4.2.3.1}. 40 41 5) Due to projected global mean sea level rise, extreme sea level events that are historically rare (e.g., 42 those that, in the past, have been associated with surges from intense cyclones), will become common 43 by 2100 under all RCPs, leading to severe flooding in the absence of strong adaptation (high 44 confidence). In RCP8.5, many small islands and megacities will experience such events annually by 2050 45 {4.2.3.4}. 1 FOOTNOTE: In this Report, the following summary terms are used to describe the available evidence: limited, medium, or robust; and for the degree of agreement: low, medium, or high. A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high, and very high, and typeset in italics, e.g., medium confidence. For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned,
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Lasting Coastal Hazards from Past Greenhouse Gas Emissions COMMENTARY Tony E
    COMMENTARY Lasting coastal hazards from past greenhouse gas emissions COMMENTARY Tony E. Wonga,1 The emission of greenhouse gases into Earth’satmo- 100% sphereisaby-productofmodernmarvelssuchasthe Extremely likely by 2073−2138 production of vast amounts of energy, heating and 80% cooling inhospitable environments to be amenable to human existence, and traveling great distances 60% Likely by 2064−2105 faster than our saddle-sore ancestors ever dreamed possible. However, these luxuries come at a price: 40% climate changes in the form of severe droughts, ex- Probability treme precipitation and temperatures, increased fre- 20% quency of flooding in coastal cities, global warming, RCP2.6 and sea-level rise (1, 2). Rising seas pose a severe risk RCP8.5 0% to coastal areas across the globe, with billions of 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 US dollars in assets at risk and about 10% of the ’ Year when 50-cm sea-level rise world s population living within 10 m of sea level threshold is exceeded (3–5). The price of our emissions is not felt immedi- ately throughout the entire climate system, however, Fig. 1. Cumulative probability of exceeding 50 cm of sea-level rise by year (relative to the global mean sea because processes such as ice sheet melt and the level from 1986 to 2005). The yellow box denotes the expansion of warming ocean water act over the range of years after which exceedance is likely [≥66% course of centuries. Thus, even if all greenhouse probability (12)], where the left boundary follows a gas emissions immediately ceased, our past emis- business-as-usual emissions scenario (RCP8.5, red line) sions have already “locked in” some amount of con- and the right boundary follows a low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6, blue line).
    [Show full text]
  • Turning the Tide on Trash: Great Lakes
    Turning the Tide On Trash A LEARNING GUIDE ON MARINE DEBRIS Turning the Tide On Trash A LEARNING GUIDE ON MARINE DEBRIS Floating marine debris in Hawaii NOAA PIFSC CRED Educators, parents, students, and Unfortunately, the ocean is currently researchers can use Turning the Tide under considerable pressure. The on Trash as they explore the serious seeming vastness of the ocean has impacts that marine debris can have on prompted people to overestimate its wildlife, the environment, our well being, ability to safely absorb our wastes. For and our economy. too long, we have used these waters as a receptacle for our trash and other Covering nearly three-quarters of the wastes. Integrating the following lessons Earth, the ocean is an extraordinary and background chapters into your resource. The ocean supports fishing curriculum can help to teach students industries and coastal economies, that they can be an important part of the provides recreational opportunities, solution. Many of the lessons can also and serves as a nurturing home for a be modified for science fair projects and multitude of marine plants and wildlife. other learning extensions. C ON T EN T S 1 Acknowledgments & History of Turning the Tide on Trash 2 For Educators and Parents: How to Use This Learning Guide UNIT ONE 5 The Definition, Characteristics, and Sources of Marine Debris 17 Lesson One: Coming to Terms with Marine Debris 20 Lesson Two: Trash Traits 23 Lesson Three: A Degrading Experience 30 Lesson Four: Marine Debris – Data Mining 34 Lesson Five: Waste Inventory 38 Lesson
    [Show full text]
  • Blue Studios Rachel Blau Duplessis
    Blue Studios Rachel Blau Duplessis Poetry and its Cultural Work Blue Studios You are reading copyrighted material published by the University of Alabama Press. Any posting, copying, or distributing of this work beyond fair use as defined under U.S. Copyright law is illegal and injures the author and publisher. For permission to reuse this work, contact the University of Alabama Press. MODERN AND CONTEMPORARY POETICS Series Editors Charles Bernstein Hank Lazer Series Advisory Board Maria Damon Rachel Blau DuPlessis Alan Golding Susan Howe Nathaniel Mackey Jerome McGann Harryette Mullen Aldon Nielsen Marjorie Perloff Joan Retallack Ron Silliman Jerry Ward You are reading copyrighted material published by the University of Alabama Press. Any posting, copying, or distributing of this work beyond fair use as defined under U.S. Copyright law is illegal and injures the author and publisher. For permission to reuse this work, contact the University of Alabama Press. Blue Studios Poetry and Its Cultural Work RACHEL BLAU DUPLESSIS THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA PRESS Tuscaloosa You are reading copyrighted material published by the University of Alabama Press. Any posting, copying, or distributing of this work beyond fair use as defined under U.S. Copyright law is illegal and injures the author and publisher. For permission to reuse this work, contact the University of Alabama Press. Copyright © 2006 The University of Alabama Press Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487-0380 All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America Typeface: Minion ∞ The paper on which this book is printed meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information Sciences-Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Mate- rials, ANSI Z39.48-1984.
    [Show full text]
  • Typhoon Neoguri Disaster Risk Reduction Situation Report1 DRR Sitrep 2014‐001 ‐ Updated July 8, 2014, 10:00 CET
    Typhoon Neoguri Disaster Risk Reduction Situation Report1 DRR sitrep 2014‐001 ‐ updated July 8, 2014, 10:00 CET Summary Report Ongoing typhoon situation The storm had lost strength early Tuesday July 8, going from the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane to a Category 3 on the Saffir‐Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which means devastating damage is expected to occur, with major damage to well‐built framed homes, snapped or uprooted trees and power outages. It is approaching Okinawa, Japan, and is moving northwest towards South Korea and the Philippines, bringing strong winds, flooding rainfall and inundating storm surge. Typhoon Neoguri is a once‐in‐a‐decade storm and Japanese authorities have extended their highest storm alert to Okinawa's main island. The Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2013 ranked Japan as first among countries in the world for both annual and maximum potential losses due to cyclones. It is calculated that Japan loses on average up to $45.9 Billion due to cyclonic winds every year and that it can lose a probable maximum loss of $547 Billion.2 What are the most devastating cyclones to hit Okinawa in recent memory? There have been 12 damaging cyclones to hit Okinawa since 1945. Sustaining winds of 81.6 knots (151 kph), Typhoon “Winnie” caused damages of $5.8 million in August 1997. Typhoon "Bart", which hit Okinawa in October 1999 caused damages of $5.7 million. It sustained winds of 126 knots (233 kph). The most damaging cyclone to hit Japan was Super Typhoon Nida (reaching a peak intensity of 260 kph), which struck Japan in 2004 killing 287 affecting 329,556 people injuring 1,483, and causing damages amounting to $15 Billion.
    [Show full text]
  • Sea Level and Global Ice Volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene
    Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene Kurt Lambecka,b,1, Hélène Roubya,b, Anthony Purcella, Yiying Sunc, and Malcolm Sambridgea aResearch School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia; bLaboratoire de Géologie de l’École Normale Supérieure, UMR 8538 du CNRS, 75231 Paris, France; and cDepartment of Earth Sciences, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China This contribution is part of the special series of Inaugural Articles by members of the National Academy of Sciences elected in 2009. Contributed by Kurt Lambeck, September 12, 2014 (sent for review July 1, 2014; reviewed by Edouard Bard, Jerry X. Mitrovica, and Peter U. Clark) The major cause of sea-level change during ice ages is the exchange for the Holocene for which the direct measures of past sea level are of water between ice and ocean and the planet’s dynamic response relatively abundant, for example, exhibit differences both in phase to the changing surface load. Inversion of ∼1,000 observations for and in noise characteristics between the two data [compare, for the past 35,000 y from localities far from former ice margins has example, the Holocene parts of oxygen isotope records from the provided new constraints on the fluctuation of ice volume in this Pacific (9) and from two Red Sea cores (10)]. interval. Key results are: (i) a rapid final fall in global sea level of Past sea level is measured with respect to its present position ∼40 m in <2,000 y at the onset of the glacial maximum ∼30,000 y and contains information on both land movement and changes in before present (30 ka BP); (ii) a slow fall to −134 m from 29 to 21 ka ocean volume.
    [Show full text]
  • Climate Change and Water Management in South Florida
    Interdepartmental Climate Change Group District Leadership Team Subteam: Kenneth Ammon Deena Reppen Sharon Trost Interdepartmental Climate Change Group Members: Wossenu Abtew Chandra Pathak Restoration Sciences SCADA & Hydrological Data Management Matahel Ansar Christopher Pettit Operations & Maintenance Office of Counsel Jenifer Barnes Barbara Powell Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Water Supply Modeling Dean Powell Luis Cadavid Water Supply Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Angela Prymas Modeling Regulation James Carnes Garth Redfield Intergovernmental Programs Restoration Sciences Tibebe Dessalegne-Agaze Keith Rizzardi BEM Systems Inc. (contractor) Office of Counsel Cynthia Gefvert Winifred Said Water Supply Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Lawrence Gerry Modeling Everglades Restoration Natalie Schneider Linda Hoppes Intergovernmental Programs Water Supply Bruce Sharfstein Michelle Irizarry-Ortiz Restoration Sciences Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Kim Shugar Intergovernmental Programs Jeremy McBryan Restoration Sciences Fred Sklar Restoration Sciences Damon Meiers Intergovernmental Programs Paul Trimble Hydrologic & Environmental Systems John Morgan Modeling Intergovernmental Programs Bob Verrastro John Mulliken Intergovernmental Programs Water Supply Patti Nicholas Dewey Worth Public Information Everglades Restoration Jayantha Obeysekera Nathan Yates Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Restoration Sciences Modeling i Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future
    Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future As more and more states are incorporating projections of sea-level rise into coastal planning efforts, the states of California, Oregon, and Washington asked the National Research Council to project sea-level rise along their coasts for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100, taking into account the many factors that affect sea-level rise on a local scale. The projections show a sharp distinction at Cape Mendocino in northern California. South of that point, sea-level rise is expected to be very close to global projections; north of that point, sea-level rise is projected to be less than global projections because seismic strain is pushing the land upward. ny significant sea-level In compliance with a rise will pose enor- 2008 executive order, mous risks to the California state agencies have A been incorporating projec- valuable infrastructure, devel- opment, and wetlands that line tions of sea-level rise into much of the 1,600 mile shore- their coastal planning. This line of California, Oregon, and study provides the first Washington. For example, in comprehensive regional San Francisco Bay, two inter- projections of the changes in national airports, the ports of sea level expected in San Francisco and Oakland, a California, Oregon, and naval air station, freeways, Washington. housing developments, and sports stadiums have been Global Sea-Level Rise built on fill that raised the land Following a few thousand level only a few feet above the years of relative stability, highest tides. The San Francisco International Airport (center) global sea level has been Sea-level change is linked and surrounding areas will begin to flood with as rising since the late 19th or to changes in the Earth’s little as 40 cm (16 inches) of sea-level rise, a early 20th century, when climate.
    [Show full text]
  • Deep-Sea Mining: the Basics
    A fact sheet from June 2018 NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research Deep-sea Mining: The Basics Overview The deepest parts of the world’s ocean feature ecosystems found nowhere else on Earth. They provide habitat for multitudes of species, many yet to be named. These vast, lightless regions also possess deposits of valuable minerals in rich concentrations. Deep-sea extraction technologies may soon develop to the point where exploration of seabed minerals can give way to active exploitation. The International Seabed Authority (ISA) is charged with formulating and enforcing rules for all seabed mining that takes place in waters beyond national jurisdictions. These rules are now under development. Environmental regulations, liability and financial rules, and oversight and enforcement protocols all must be written and approved within three to five years. Figure 1 Types of Deep-sea Mining Production support vessel Return pipe Riser pipe Cobalt Seafloor massive Polymetallic crusts sulfides nodules Subsurface plumes 800-2,500 from return water meters deep Deposition 1,000-4,000 meters deep 4,000-6,500 meters deep Cobalt-rich Localized plumes Seabed pump Ferromanganeseferromanganese from cutting crusts Seafloor production tool Nodule deposit Massive sulfide deposit Sediment Source: New Zealand Environment Guide © 2018 The Pew Charitable Trusts 2 The legal foundations • The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Also known as the Law of the Sea Treaty, UNCLOS is the constitutional document governing mineral exploitation on the roughly 60 percent of the world seabed that lies beyond national jurisdictions. UNCLOS took effect in 1994 upon passage of key enabling amendments designed to spur commercial mining.
    [Show full text]
  • Marine Snow Storms: Assessing the Environmental Risks of Ocean Fertilization
    University of Wollongong Research Online Faculty of Law - Papers (Archive) Faculty of Business and Law 1-1-2009 Marine snow storms: Assessing the environmental risks of ocean fertilization Robin M. Warner University of Wollongong, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://ro.uow.edu.au/lawpapers Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation Warner, Robin M.: Marine snow storms: Assessing the environmental risks of ocean fertilization 2009, 426-436. https://ro.uow.edu.au/lawpapers/192 Research Online is the open access institutional repository for the University of Wollongong. For further information contact the UOW Library: [email protected] Marine snow storms: Assessing the environmental risks of ocean fertilization Abstract The threats posed by climate change to the global environment have fostered heightened scientific interest in marine geo-engineering schemes designed to boost the capacity of the oceans to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide. This is the primary goal of a process known as ocean fertilization which seeks to increase the production of organic material in the surface ocean in order to promote further draw down of photosynthesized carbon to the deep ocean. This article describes the process of ocean fertilization, its objectives and potential impacts on the marine environment and some examples of ocean fertilization experiments. It analyses the applicability of international law principles on marine environmental protection to this process and the regulatory gaps and ambiguities in the existing international law framework for such activities. Finally it examines the emerging regulatory for legitimate scientific experiments involving ocean fertilization being developed by the London Convention and London Protocol Scientific Groups and its potential implications for the proponents of ocean fertilization trials.
    [Show full text]
  • Marine Pollution: a Critique of Present and Proposed International Agreements and Institutions--A Suggested Global Oceans' Environmental Regime Lawrence R
    Hastings Law Journal Volume 24 | Issue 1 Article 5 1-1972 Marine Pollution: A Critique of Present and Proposed International Agreements and Institutions--A Suggested Global Oceans' Environmental Regime Lawrence R. Lanctot Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.uchastings.edu/hastings_law_journal Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation Lawrence R. Lanctot, Marine Pollution: A Critique of Present and Proposed International Agreements and Institutions--A Suggested Global Oceans' Environmental Regime, 24 Hastings L.J. 67 (1972). Available at: https://repository.uchastings.edu/hastings_law_journal/vol24/iss1/5 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Law Journals at UC Hastings Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Hastings Law Journal by an authorized editor of UC Hastings Scholarship Repository. Marine Pollution: A Critique of Present and Proposed International Agreements and Institutions-A Suggested Global Oceans' Environmental Regime By LAWRENCE R. LANCTOT* THE oceans are earth's last significant frontier for man's utiliza- tion. Advances in marine technology are opening previously unreach- able depths to permit the study of the oceans' mysteries and the extrac- tion of valuable natural resources.' Because these vast resources were inaccessible in the past, international law does not provide any certain rules governing the ownership and development of marine resources which lie beyond the limits of national jurisdiction.2 In response to this legal uncertainty and in the face of accelerating technology, the United Nations General Assembly has called a General Conference on the Law of the Sea in 1973 to formulate international conventions gov- erning the development of the seabed and ocean floor., Great interest * J.D., University of San Francisco, 1968; LL.M., Columbia University, 1969; Adjunct Professor of Law, University of San Francisco.
    [Show full text]
  • Global Warming Impacts on Severe Drought Characteristics in Asia Monsoon Region
    water Article Global Warming Impacts on Severe Drought Characteristics in Asia Monsoon Region Jeong-Bae Kim , Jae-Min So and Deg-Hyo Bae * Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University, 209 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-Gu, Seoul 05006, Korea; [email protected] (J.-B.K.); [email protected] (J.-M.S.) * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +82-2-3408-3814 Received: 2 April 2020; Accepted: 7 May 2020; Published: 12 May 2020 Abstract: Climate change influences the changes in drought features. This study assesses the changes in severe drought characteristics over the Asian monsoon region responding to 1.5 and 2.0 ◦C of global average temperature increases above preindustrial levels. Based on the selected 5 global climate models, the drought characteristics are analyzed according to different regional climate zones using the standardized precipitation index. Under global warming, the severity and frequency of severe drought (i.e., SPI < 1.5) are modulated by the changes in seasonal and regional precipitation − features regardless of the region. Due to the different regional change trends, global warming is likely to aggravate (or alleviate) severe drought in warm (or dry/cold) climate zones. For seasonal analysis, the ranges of changes in drought severity (and frequency) are 11.5%~6.1% (and 57.1%~23.2%) − − under 1.5 and 2.0 ◦C of warming compared to reference condition. The significant decreases in drought frequency are indicated in all climate zones due to the increasing precipitation tendency. In general, drought features under global warming closely tend to be affected by the changes in the amount of precipitation as well as the changes in dry spell length.
    [Show full text]
  • Direct Evidence for Significant Deglaciation Across the Weddell
    Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 17, EGU2015-2572-1, 2015 EGU General Assembly 2015 © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Direct evidence for significant deglaciation across the Weddell Sea embayment during Melt Water Pulse-1B Christopher Fogwill (1), Christian Turney (1), Nicholas Golledge (2), David Etheridge (3), Mario Rubino (3), John Woodward (4), Kate Reid (4), Tas van Ommen (5), Andrew Moy (5), Mark Curran (5), David Thornton (3), Camilla Rootes (6), and Andrés Rivera (7) (1) University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre, BEES, Sydney, Australia ([email protected]), (2) Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6140, New Zealand, (3) Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC, Australia, (4) Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 8ST, United Kingdom, (5) Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, IMAS, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia, (6) Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Winter Street, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK., (7) Glaciology and Climate Change Laboratory, Centro de Estudios Cientıficos, Valdivia, and Departamento de Geografıa, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile During the last deglaciation (21,000 to 7,000 years ago) global sea level rise was punctuated by several abrupt meltwater spikes triggered by the retreat of ice sheets and glaciers world-wide. However, questions regarding the relative timing, geographical source and the physical mechanisms driving these rapid increases in sea level have catalysed significant debate that is critical to predicting future sea level rise. Here we present a unique record of ice sheet elevation change derived from the Patriot Hills blue ice area (BIA), located close to the modern day grounding line of the Institute Ice Stream in the Weddell Sea Embayment (WSE).
    [Show full text]