The NCAR Annual Report (NAR)

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

The NCAR Annual Report (NAR) NCAR: The NCAR Annual Report (NAR) NCAR Home NAR Home Search The NCAR Annual Report > Home NCAR Annual Report Director's Message The NCAR Annual Report Science & Facility Plans For NSF The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is a federally funded research Past Annual Scientific and development center. Together with our partners at universities and research Reports centers, we are dedicated to exploring and understanding our atmosphere and its interactions with the Sun, the oceans, the biosphere, and human society. Center Program This document is the NCAR’s science and facility plan for fiscal years 2006/07 and NCAR Science accomplishments for fiscal years 2005/06 and responds to guidance from the Transferring Knowledge & Technology National Science Foundation’s Division of Atmospheric Sciences (ATM). Workforce, Education & Outreach The program plan and the NCAR programs it describes were developed and thoroughly reviewed at NCAR. Priorities and programmatic emphases have been Cyberinfrastructure established in accordance with published NSF criteria. In addition, NCAR’s annual Observing Systems program planning and implementation occurs in the framework of a long-range Metrics strategic plan prepared with community and Foundation involvement. Education & Outreach NCAR’s Science and Facility Plans and Accomplishments Awards Community Service Publications People Staffing Organizational Chart Staff List ©2005 UCAR | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | Visit Us | Sponsored by http://www.nar.ucar.edu/2005/index.jsp[7/6/2015 12:57:17 PM] NCAR: The NCAR Annual Report (NAR) NCAR Home NAR Home Search The NCAR Annual Report > Home > Director's Message NCAR Annual Report Director's Message NCAR Annual Report Science & Facility Plans Director's Message For NSF Dear Colleagues: Past Annual Scientific Reports I am very pleased to introduce the new web-based 2006 Center Program NCAR Annual Report for the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This report is a merging of NCAR’s NCAR Science annual Program Plan that describes NCAR’s planned Transferring Knowledge & activities for the next two years and the Annual Scientific Technology Report that reports on NCAR’s recent accomplishments. Workforce, Education & Instead of reporting by organizational unit as we did in the Outreach past, the new report is arranged in accordance with our Cyberinfrastructure strategic planning efforts and provides a closer mapping Observing Systems between our goals and priorities and respective plans and Metrics accomplishments. Other changes include an emphasis on higher-level summary descriptions of our activities that is Education & Outreach intended to reach a wider audience. Program details are Awards available through weblinks and I encourage you to use the Community Service report’s search function to find your particular area of Publications interest. Here are a few of our report’s highlights: People In March 2005, the HIAPER(High performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Staffing Environmental Research) aircraft arrived at its new hangar at Jeffco airport after Organizational Chart more than two decades of planning. HIAPER, also known as the Gulfstream 5, or Staff List GV, has just completed a series of progressive science missions to test an initial set of community instruments installed on the aircraft. Community researchers are also developing additional instrumentation funded by NSF’s $12.5 million proposal opportunity. NCAR continues plans to meet the scientific community’s growing computational needs. The Computing and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) entered FY 2005 with 12.1 teraflops of total computational capacity at NCAR and ended the year with a capacity increase to 21.2 teraflops. In August 2005, CISL took delivery of a new IBM p5-575 supercomputer named "bluevista", supplementing our existing bluesky supercomputer. Bluevista will be made available to general users in January 2006, roughly doubling the supercomputing capacity provided by NCAR from 400 to almost 800 gigaflops. A typical application is expected to run twice as fast on bluevista as it currently does on bluesky. In the next year, NCAR will work with community partners to develop an integrated science, facility, and funding plan to expand NCAR’s supercomputing facility capabilities. The goal is to create a new supercomputing facility that can support the technological developments projected over the next several decades; expand the investment in new supercomputing systems at they become available, and engage the broad geosciences community to utilize and support this initiative. A major new accomplishment in our climate analysis research is the completion of the simulations in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, AR4. Over 200 scientific papers have been written or are in process based on available IPCC data sets, including the comprehensive runs of http://www.nar.ucar.edu/2005/dir.jsp[7/6/2015 12:57:19 PM] NCAR: The NCAR Annual Report (NAR) the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), version 3, managed by NCAR on behalf of the research community. The IPCC AR4 is due to be published in 2007 with NCAR scientists playing a leading role. The Earth System Grid (ESG) is now providing simple, Web portal access to over 70 terabytes of climate simulation data, including the data repository for Working Group 1 of the IPCC AR4. More than 1,400 users have accessed model simulations within these records. The Earth System Modeling Framework(ESMF), developed and maintained by NCAR and its partners, has become the standard software framework for international environmental modeling. NCAR scientists are currently collaborating on nesting the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), a weather model, into the CCSM and Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) climate models to simulate more complex, multiscale interactions. Planned activities will also focus on aspects of tropical variability which are poorly simulated in the current CCSM and CAM . Other weather modeling efforts at NCAR also played a critical role in tracking this year’s catastrophic Hurricane Katrina. The results of NCAR's Advanced Research version of the WRF have been impressive, with track and intensity forecasts demonstrating high accuracy. The focus in FY 2006 and FY 2007 will be on the modeling of internal dynamics of tropical cyclones and hurricanes and on developing WRF enhancements to improve its accuracy and efficacy. Education and outreach efforts continue to grow at NCAR and special funds will be committed toward this effort. In this past year, our first Faculty Fellowshipprogram provided extended visits for 3 university faculty and their graduate students. During NCAR’s fourth annual Undergraduate Leadership Workshop, 21 undergraduates in the geosciences spent a week at NCAR this summer to learn more about career and resource opportunities. These are just initial steps and we plan to grow and strengthen these and similar programs. Our 2005 Postdoctoral recruitment brought 140 highly qualified candidates for the nine positions available. We also just completed our 2005 Scientist Irecruitment with a total of six positions hired, including a research engineer to work with HIAPER. Other research emphases will be in multiscale modeling, biogeosciences, the water cycle, and math. At the management level, we have been involved in extensive strategic planning activities in this last year. These planning activities, which resulted in the goals and priorities you will read about in this report, were facilitated by the new management structure we instituted in early FY 2005. The new structure incorporates a broadly representative Executive Committee, five laboratories, and several new cross-cutting institutes to complement the familiar research divisions and programs. The newest group, created this past spring, is the Center for Capacity Building (CCB)which will focus on human and institutional capacity building related to climate-society- environment interactions. I hope you visit this Web report to learn more about NCAR's contributions and plans to areas of your research interests as well as other aspects of our program. Tim Killeen NCAR Director ©2005 UCAR | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | Visit Us | Sponsored by http://www.nar.ucar.edu/2005/dir.jsp[7/6/2015 12:57:19 PM] NCAR: The NCAR Annual Report (NAR) NCAR Home NAR Home Search The NCAR Annual Report > Home > Science & Facility Plans and Accomplishments NCAR Annual Report Director's Message NCAR Annual Report Science & Facility Plans Science & Facility Plans and Accomplishments For NSF Each year, the NCAR Executive Committee conducts an Annual Budget Review (ABR) Past Annual Scientific process, where we formally review our scientific, service, and education portfolios Reports and budgets for the next two years, in the light of changing requirements and Center Program needs. The ABR is where NCAR management considers and occasionally adjusts the relative balance among NCAR’s major program elements. It is also the means by NCAR Science which NCAR gathers the information provided to NSF in our Annual program plans. Transferring Knowledge & Technology The following plans for fiscal years 2006 and 2007, along with their Workforce, Education & accomplishments for FY 2005 and FY 2006 are organized by NCAR’s goals and Outreach priorities as described in NCAR’s Strategic Plan. Cyberinfrastructure Observing Systems NCAR Science: Investigate, predict, and explain the Earth-sun system Transferring Knowledge and
Recommended publications
  • Typhoon Neoguri Disaster Risk Reduction Situation Report1 DRR Sitrep 2014‐001 ‐ Updated July 8, 2014, 10:00 CET
    Typhoon Neoguri Disaster Risk Reduction Situation Report1 DRR sitrep 2014‐001 ‐ updated July 8, 2014, 10:00 CET Summary Report Ongoing typhoon situation The storm had lost strength early Tuesday July 8, going from the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane to a Category 3 on the Saffir‐Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which means devastating damage is expected to occur, with major damage to well‐built framed homes, snapped or uprooted trees and power outages. It is approaching Okinawa, Japan, and is moving northwest towards South Korea and the Philippines, bringing strong winds, flooding rainfall and inundating storm surge. Typhoon Neoguri is a once‐in‐a‐decade storm and Japanese authorities have extended their highest storm alert to Okinawa's main island. The Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2013 ranked Japan as first among countries in the world for both annual and maximum potential losses due to cyclones. It is calculated that Japan loses on average up to $45.9 Billion due to cyclonic winds every year and that it can lose a probable maximum loss of $547 Billion.2 What are the most devastating cyclones to hit Okinawa in recent memory? There have been 12 damaging cyclones to hit Okinawa since 1945. Sustaining winds of 81.6 knots (151 kph), Typhoon “Winnie” caused damages of $5.8 million in August 1997. Typhoon "Bart", which hit Okinawa in October 1999 caused damages of $5.7 million. It sustained winds of 126 knots (233 kph). The most damaging cyclone to hit Japan was Super Typhoon Nida (reaching a peak intensity of 260 kph), which struck Japan in 2004 killing 287 affecting 329,556 people injuring 1,483, and causing damages amounting to $15 Billion.
    [Show full text]
  • Ensemble Forecast of a Typhoon Flood Event
    AUGUST 2001 MACKEY AND KRISHNAMURTI 399 Ensemble Forecast of a Typhoon Flood Event BRIAN P. M ACKEY AND T. N . K RISHNAMURTI Department of Meteorology, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida (Manuscript received 9 September 1999, in ®nal form 2 February 2001) ABSTRACT A high-resolution nested regional spectral model and an ensemble prediction system are combined to forecast the track, intensity, and ¯ooding precipitation arising from Typhoon Winnie of August 1997, which eventually reached supertyphoon status. The prediction of ¯oods is operationally challenging since rainfall distributions can have a high degree of spatial and temporal variability. Rare event probabilities, however, can be estimated more readily via ensemble forecasting. This technique is used to evaluate a typhoon ¯ood event in which rainfall amounts greater than 200 mm led to landslides and major ¯ooding of crops. Seven-member ensembles were generated using an EOF-based technique. An experiment was conducted with a regional model resolution of 0.58 latitude. A Mercator transform grid with a grid mesh size of approximately 55 km in the east±west and 48 km in the north±south was employed. The results indicated very accurate track and intensity forecasts for both the control and ensemble mean. Track position errors remained below 150 km through 72 h, while intensity errors were approximately5ms21 at landfall. Qualitatively, the overall 5-day precipitation patterns appeared realistic and compared favorably with the observed data, while, quantitatively, the correlation coef®cient was near 0.6. For stations near and north of where Winnie made landfall, ensemble-based predictions performed well. While the ensemble mean often underestimated the heaviest rainfall totals by approximately 25%±50%, the maximum values within the ensemble spread either exceeded or came within 10%±15% of the station totals.
    [Show full text]
  • The Use of a Spectral Nudging Technique to Determine the Impact of Environmental Factors on the Track of Typhoon Megi (2010)
    atmosphere Article The Use of a Spectral Nudging Technique to Determine the Impact of Environmental Factors on the Track of Typhoon Megi (2010) Xingliang Guo ID and Wei Zhong * Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 211101, China; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 3 October 2017; Accepted: 7 December 2017; Published: 20 December 2017 Abstract: Sensitivity tests based on a spectral nudging (SN) technique are conducted to analyze the effect of large-scale environmental factors on the movement of typhoon Megi (2010). The error of simulated typhoon track is effectively reduced using SN and the impact of dynamical factors is more significant than that of thermal factors. During the initial integration and deflection period of Megi (2010), the local steering flow of the whole and lower troposphere is corrected by a direct large-scale wind adjustment, which improves track simulation. However, environmental field nudging may weaken the impacts of terrain and typhoon system development in the landfall period, resulting in large simulated track errors. Comparison of the steering flow and inner structure of the typhoon reveals that the large-scale circulation influences the speed and direction of typhoon motion by: (1) adjusting the local steering flow and (2) modifying the environmental vertical wind shear to change the location and symmetry of the inner severe convection. Keywords: spectral nudging; typhoon track; environmental factors 1. Introduction Although the forecasting accuracy of typhoon tracks has been effectively improved in recent years through observations, numerical simulations, data assimilation and studies of the physical mechanisms affecting typhoon movement [1], the accurate prediction of abnormal typhoon tracks, including their continuous changes and abrupt deflection, is still not possible [2].
    [Show full text]
  • Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities
    Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, SPM4 Coasts and Communities Coordinating Lead Authors: Michael Oppenheimer (USA), Bruce C. Glavovic (New Zealand/South Africa) Lead Authors: Jochen Hinkel (Germany), Roderik van de Wal (Netherlands), Alexandre K. Magnan (France), Amro Abd-Elgawad (Egypt), Rongshuo Cai (China), Miguel Cifuentes-Jara (Costa Rica), Robert M. DeConto (USA), Tuhin Ghosh (India), John Hay (Cook Islands), Federico Isla (Argentina), Ben Marzeion (Germany), Benoit Meyssignac (France), Zita Sebesvari (Hungary/Germany) Contributing Authors: Robbert Biesbroek (Netherlands), Maya K. Buchanan (USA), Ricardo Safra de Campos (UK), Gonéri Le Cozannet (France), Catia Domingues (Australia), Sönke Dangendorf (Germany), Petra Döll (Germany), Virginie K.E. Duvat (France), Tamsin Edwards (UK), Alexey Ekaykin (Russian Federation), Donald Forbes (Canada), James Ford (UK), Miguel D. Fortes (Philippines), Thomas Frederikse (Netherlands), Jean-Pierre Gattuso (France), Robert Kopp (USA), Erwin Lambert (Netherlands), Judy Lawrence (New Zealand), Andrew Mackintosh (New Zealand), Angélique Melet (France), Elizabeth McLeod (USA), Mark Merrifield (USA), Siddharth Narayan (US), Robert J. Nicholls (UK), Fabrice Renaud (UK), Jonathan Simm (UK), AJ Smit (South Africa), Catherine Sutherland (South Africa), Nguyen Minh Tu (Vietnam), Jon Woodruff (USA), Poh Poh Wong (Singapore), Siyuan Xian (USA) Review Editors: Ayako Abe-Ouchi (Japan), Kapil Gupta (India), Joy Pereira (Malaysia) Chapter Scientist: Maya K. Buchanan (USA) This chapter should be cited as: Oppenheimer, M., B.C. Glavovic , J. Hinkel, R. van de Wal, A.K. Magnan, A. Abd-Elgawad, R. Cai, M. Cifuentes-Jara, R.M. DeConto, T. Ghosh, J. Hay, F. Isla, B. Marzeion, B. Meyssignac, and Z. Sebesvari, 2019: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities.
    [Show full text]
  • Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts And
    SECOND ORDER DRAFT Chapter 4 IPCC SR Ocean and Cryosphere 1 2 Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities 3 4 Coordinating Lead Authors: Michael Oppenheimer (USA), Bruce Glavovic (New Zealand) 5 6 Lead Authors: Amro Abd-Elgawad (Egypt), Rongshuo Cai (China), Miguel Cifuentes-Jara (Costa Rica), 7 Rob Deconto (USA), Tuhin Ghosh (India), John Hay (Cook Islands), Jochen Hinkel (Germany), Federico 8 Isla (Argentina), Alexandre K. Magnan (France), Ben Marzeion (Germany), Benoit Meyssignac (France), 9 Zita Sebesvari (Hungary), AJ Smit (South Africa), Roderik van de Wal (Netherlands) 10 11 Contributing Authors: Maya Buchanan (USA), Gonéri Le Cozannet (France), Catia Domingues 12 (Australia), Petra Döll (Germany), Virginie K.E. Duvat (France), Tamsin Edwards (UK), Alexey Ekaykin 13 (Russian Federation), Miguel D. Fortes (Philippines), Thomas Frederikse (Netherlands), Jean-Pierre Gattuso 14 (France), Robert Kopp (USA), Erwin Lambert (Netherlands), Andrew Mackintosh (New Zealand), 15 Angélique Melet (France), Elizabeth McLeod (USA), Mark Merrifield (USA), Siddharth Narayan (US), 16 Robert J. Nicholls (UK), Fabrice Renaud (UK), Jonathan Simm (UK), Jon Woodruff (USA), Poh Poh Wong 17 (Singapore), Siyuan Xian (USA) 18 19 Review Editors: Ayako Abe-Ouchi (Japan), Kapil Gupta (India), Joy Pereira (Malaysia) 20 21 Chapter Scientist: Maya Buchanan (USA) 22 23 Date of Draft: 16 November 2018 24 25 Notes: TSU Compiled Version 26 27 28 Table of Contents 29 30 Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 2 31 4.1 Purpose, Scope, and Structure of the Chapter ...................................................................................... 6 32 4.1.1 Themes of this Chapter ................................................................................................................... 6 33 4.1.2 Advances in this Chapter Beyond AR5 and SR1.5 ........................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Causes of the Unusual Coastal Flooding Generated by Typhoon Winnie on the West Coast of Korea
    Natural Hazards 29: 485–500, 2003. 485 © 2003 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands. Causes of the Unusual Coastal Flooding Generated by Typhoon Winnie on the West Coast of Korea I.-J. MOON1,I.S.OH2,T.MURTY3 and Y.-H. YOUN4 1University of Rhode Island, Graduate School of Oceanography, Narragansett, RI 02882, U.S.A. (E-mail: [email protected]); 2Seoul National University, Department of Oceanography and Research Institute of Oceanography, Seoul 151-742, Korea; 3W. F. Baird & Associates, Coastal Engineers Ltd., Ottawa, Canada; 4Korea Meteorological Administration, Meteorological Research Institute, Seoul 151-742, Korea (Received: 30 October 2000; accepted: 11 February 2002) Abstract. On 19 August 1997 Typhoon Winnie brought unusually strong and extensive coastal flooding from storm surges to the west coast of Korea, which was far enough from the typhoon’s center to lack significant local wind and pressure forcing. Sea levels at some tidal stations broke 36-year records and resulted in property damages of $18,000,000. This study investigated the causes of the unusual high sea levels by using an Astronomical-Meteorological Index (AMI) and a coupled ocean wave-circulation model developed by the present authors. The AMI analysis and the numerical simulation of the surge event showed that the major cause of the high sea levels was not the standard inverse barometric effect supplemented by water piling up along the coast by the wind field of the typhoon as is usual for a typical storm surge, but rather an enhanced tidal forcing from the perigean spring tide and water transported into the Yellow Sea by the currents generated by the typhoon.
    [Show full text]
  • Guantanamo Gold Hill Galley to Close Sept. 30
    Guantanamo Bay gazette Sertr ofteNay18 Vol. 54 No. 33 Friday, August 22, 1997 Gold Hill Galley to close Sept. 30 Yes, it's true. Gold Hill (Windward) Galley will close Sept. 30 after MWR assumes custody of Gold Hill Galley Oct. 15 and is presently serving the evening meal. So what does this mean? Well, for military seeking a concessionaire to o perate this facility. This facility is expected to residents on Windward, it'll be a pay raise. be open to all hands and will serve three meals a day, seven days a week. Effective Oct. 1 all personnel, except Hospital and Marine, residing on MWR will provide details in eluding pricing in the near future. Windward will be placed on a Basic Al- Salabarria (Leeward) Galley will be lowance for Subsistence (BAS). BAS is open under contract effective Jan. 1, 1998. currently $8.30 each day. Personnel cur- 4 < + This transition should be invisible to cus- rently on COMRATS ($7.36/day) will 4 4+ tomers. Hours of operation and the menu receive an increase of 94 cents a day. will remain the same. Personnel residing Those individuals who presently hold < 4 4 on Leeward, including Marines, will con- Chow Passes will begin receiving the tinue to draw COMRATS or use their $8.30 each day automatically effective Chow Pass (whichever is presently en- Oct. 1. PSD will implement the changes titled). Leeward residents will draw and no action is required of military mem- COMRATS vice BAS because a galley is bers. available. Military members, other than Hos- The Food Service Division is planning I and Marine personnel, will not be a grand finale (special meal) for Sept.
    [Show full text]
  • Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena ....………..…………..…..……………..……………..…
    JANUARY 2001 VOLUME 43 NUMBER 01 STSTORMORM DDAATTAA AND UNUSUAL WEATHER PHENOMENA WITH LATE REPORTS AND CORRECTIONS NATIONAL OCEANIC AND NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITE, NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER noaa ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION DATA AND INFORMATION SERVICE ASHEVILLE, NC Cover: Icicles hang from an orange tree with sprinklers running in an adjacent strawberry field in the background at sunrise on January 1, 2001. The photo was taken at Mike Lott’s Strawberry Farm in rural Eastern Hillsborough County of West- Central, FL. Low temperatures in the area were in the middle 20’s for six to nine hours. (Photograph courtesy of St. Petersburg Times Newspaper Photographer, Fraser Hale) TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Outstanding Storm of the Month ..……..…………………..……………..……………..……………..…. 4 Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena ....………..…………..…..……………..……………..…. 5 Additions/Corrections ..………….……………………………………………………………………….. 92 Reference Notes ..……..………..……………..……………..……………..…………..………………… 122 STORM DATA (ISSN 0039-1972) National Climatic Data Center Editor: Stephen Del Greco Assistant Editors: Stuart Hinson and Rhonda Mooring STORM DATA is prepared, and distributed by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena narratives and Hurricane/Tropical Storm summaries are prepared by the National Weather Service. Monthly and annual statistics and summaries of tornado and lightning events resulting in deaths, injuries, and damage are compiled by the National Climatic Data Center and the National Weather Service's (NWS) Storm Prediction Center. STORM DATA contains all confirmed information on storms available to our staff at the time of publication. Late reports and corrections will be printed in each edition. Except for limited editing to correct grammatical errors, the data in Storm Data are published as received.
    [Show full text]
  • Influence of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Size on Storm Surge in the Northern East China
    remote sensing Article Influence of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Size on Storm Surge in the Northern East China Sea Jian Li 1,2,3,4, Yijun Hou 1,2,3,5,*, Dongxue Mo 1,2,3, Qingrong Liu 4 and Yuanzhi Zhang 6 1 Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanhai Road, 7, Qingdao 266071, China; [email protected] (J.L.); [email protected] (D.M.) 2 Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanhai Road, 7, Qingdao 266071, China 3 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yuquan Road, 19A, Beijing 100049, China 4 North China Sea Marine Forecasting center of State Oceanic Administration, Yunling Road, 27, Qingdao 266061, China; [email protected] 5 Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science, Qingdao 266061, China 6 Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Pukou District, Nanjing 210044, China; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-532-82898516 Received: 5 November 2019; Accepted: 10 December 2019; Published: 16 December 2019 Abstract: Typhoon storm surge research has always been very important and worthy of attention. Less is studied about the impact of tropical cyclone size (TC size) on storm surge, especially in semi-enclosed areas such as the northern East China Sea (NECS). Observational data for Typhoon Winnie (TY9711) and Typhoon Damrey (TY1210) from satellite and tide stations, as well as simulation results from a finite-volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM), were developed to study the effect of TC size on storm surge.
    [Show full text]
  • Multi-Scenario Urban Flood Risk Assessment by Integrating Future 2 Land Use Change Models and Hydrodynamic Models
    https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-200 Preprint. Discussion started: 2 July 2021 c Author(s) 2021. CC BY 4.0 License. 1 Multi-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future 2 land use change models and hydrodynamic models 3 Qinke Sun1,2, Jiayi Fang1,2, Xuewei Dang3, Kepeng Xu1,2, Yongqiang Fang 1,2, Xia Li1,2, Min Liu1,2 4 1School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China 5 2Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 6 200241, China 7 3Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China 8 9 Correspondence to: Jiayi Fang ([email protected]); Min Liu ([email protected]) 10 Abstract. Urbanization and climate change are the critical challenges in the 21st century. Flooding by extreme weather 11 events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in fast-urbanizing areas. However, high uncertainty in climate 12 change and future urban growth limit the ability of cities to adapt to flood risk. This study presents a multi-scenario risk 13 assessment method that couples the future land use simulation model (FLUS) and floodplain inundation model (LISFLOOD- 14 FP) to simulate and evaluate the impacts of future urban growth scenarios with flooding under climate change (two 15 representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5)). By taking Shanghai coastal city as an example, we then quantify 16 the role of urban planning policies in future urban development to compare urban development under multiple policy 17 scenarios (Business as usual, BU; Growth as planned, GP; Growth as eco-constraints, GE).
    [Show full text]
  • Table of Contents
    JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGLCAL RESEARCH Vol.1 1987 CONTENTS No.1 Article Warm Congratulations on Publication of Acta Meteorologica Sinica ............. Zou Jingmeng (邹竞蒙) i A Starting Point .................................................................................................. Ye Duzheng (叶笃正) ii Run AMS in English Well ......................................................................................... Tao Shiyan (陶诗言) iii The Oscillation of Certain Zonal Mean Characteristics of Motion on a Spheric Earth’s Atmosphere ......... ........................................................................................................................................ Xie Yibing 1-9 Symmetric and Asymmetric Motions in the Barotropic Filtered Model Atmosphere ................................. ..................................................................................................... Liao Dongxian, and Zou Xiaolei 10-19 The Adjustment of Wind to Ekman Flow within the Planetary Boundary Layer ......................................... ................................................................................................................ Xu Yinzi, and Wu Rongskeng 20-25 An Objective Scheme for Long-Range Forecasts ....................................................................................... ..................................................................................... Zhang Jijia,Sun Zhaobo, and Zhang Banglin 26-33 Predictability Levels of Monthly Forecast Based on Time-Averaged Ocean/Atmosphere Variables
    [Show full text]
  • Numerical Simulation of a Heavy Rainstorm in Northeast China Caused by the Residual Vortex of Typhoon 1909 (Lekima)
    atmosphere Article Numerical Simulation of a Heavy Rainstorm in Northeast China Caused by the Residual Vortex of Typhoon 1909 (Lekima) Yiping Wang * and Tong Wang School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: From 14 to 17 August 2019, a heavy rainstorm occurred in Northeast China due to the combined influence of the residual vortex of typhoon 1909 (Lekima) and cold air intrusion. Based on the precipitation data of China Meteorological observation stations, surface and upper charts, HMW-8 satellite images, NCEP/NCAR 0.25◦ × 0.25◦ reanalysis data and WRF4.0 numerical prediction model are used to carry out numerical simulations. According to the weather situation and numerical simulation results, the cause of 1 h severe precipitation is thoroughly studied. Results show that: (1) According to the weather situation, the precipitation process can be divided into two stages. The first stage is from 1412 to 1612 August 2019, which is caused by the interaction between the residual vortex, the inverted trough of typhoon 1909 (Lekima) and the upper trough. The rain belt lies from northeast to southwest, and the rainfall center has typical meso-β-scale characteristics. At the second stage from 1612 to 1712 August 2019, the residual vortex of typhoon reaches Heilongjiang Province, at the same time, 500 hPa cold vortex falls to the south; (2) Based on the 1 h rainfall of automatic weather stations, it can be seen that there are three rainfall peaks from 00 UTC 14 to 12 UTC 17, which are 53.2 mm in the Middle East of Jilin Province, 38.2 mm in the south of 1610 Liaoning Province, and 21.3 mm in the east of 1707 Heilongjiang Province respectively.
    [Show full text]