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2012 Vol. 4, No. 1 PRISM VOL. 4, NO. 1 2012 PRISM VOL. 4, NO. 1 4, NO. VOL. 2012 www.ndu.edu A JOURNAL OF THE CENTER FOR COMPLEX OPERATIONS PRISM ABOUT CENTER FOR COMPLEX OPERATIONS (CCO) CCO WAS ESTABLISHED TO: PRISM is published by the National Defense University Press for the Center for Complex ■■ Serve as an information clearinghouse and knowledge manager EDITOR Enhancing the U.S. Government’s Ability to for complex operations training and education, acting as a central Operations. PRISM is a security studies journal chartered to inform members of U.S. Federal Prepare for Complex Operations Michael Miklaucic agencies, allies, and other partners on complex and integrated national security operations; repository for information on areas such as training and curricula, reconstruction and nation-building; relevant policy and strategy; lessons learned; and training and education provider institutions, complex operations CCO, a center within the Institute for National Strategic Studies MANAGING EDITOR developments in training and education to transform America’s security and development events, and subject matter experts at National Defense University, links U.S. Government education Dr. Jeffrey D. Smotherman apparatus to meet tomorrow’s challenges better while promoting freedom today. and training institutions, including related centers of excellence, ■■ Develop a complex operations training and education community of lessons learned programs, and academia, to foster unity of effort practice to catalyze innovation and development of new knowledge, COPY EDITORS in reconstruction and stability operations, counterinsurgency, and connect members for networking, share existing knowledge, and Dr. John J. Church COMMUNICATIONS irregular warfare—collectively called “complex operations.” The cultivate foundations of trust and habits of collaboration across the Calvin B. Kelley Department of Defense, with support from the State Department community George C. Maerz and U.S. Agency for International Development, established CCO as Constructive comments and contributions are important to us. Direct ■■ Serve as a feedback and information conduit to the Office of the an innovative interagency partnership. communications to the link on the NDU Press Web site (www.ndu.edu/press) or Secretary of Defense and broader U.S. Government policy leader- INTERNET PUBLICATIONS EDITOR write to: ship to support guidance and problem-solving across the commu- Joanna E. Seich nity of practice Editor, PRISM ■■ Enable more effective networking, coordination, and synchroniza- National Defense University Press ASSOCIATE EDITORS tion to support the preparation of Department of Defense and Mark D. Ducasse 260 Fifth Avenue (Building 64, Room 3605) Fort Lesley J. McNair other U.S. Government personnel for complex operations Stefano Santamato Washington, DC 20319 ■■ Support lessons learned processes and best practices compilation in the area of complex operations EDITORIAL ASSISTANT Telephone: Molly Jerome (202) 685-3442 ■■ Identify education and training gaps in the Department of Defense FAX: and other Federal departments and agencies and facilitate efforts (202) 685-3581 to fill those gaps. DIRecTOR, NDU PRESS Email: [email protected] Frank G. Hoffman PRISM online: www.ndu.edu/press ADVISORY BOARD Visit the CCO Web site at: http://ccoportal.org Dr. Gordon Adams CONTRIBUTIONS Dr. Pauline H. Baker Ambassador Rick Barton PRISM welcomes submission of scholarly, independent research from security policymakers Professor Alain Bauer and shapers, security analysts, academic specialists, and civilians from the United Dr. Joseph J. Collins (ex officio) States and abroad. Submit articles for consideration to the address above or by email to Ambassador James F. Dobbins [email protected] with “Attention Submissions Editor” in the subject line. For further Ambassador John E. Herbst (ex officio) information, see the guidelines on the NDU Press Web site at www.ndu.edu/press. Dr. David Kilcullen NDU Press is the National Defense University’s cross-component, professional military and Ambassador Jacques Paul Klein academic publishing house. It publishes books, policy briefs, occasional papers, monographs, Dr. Roger B. Myerson and special reports on national security strategy, defense policy, national military strategy, Dr. Moisés Naím regional security affairs, and global strategic problems. MG William L. Nash, USA (Ret.) Ambassador Thomas R. Pickering This is the authoritative, official U.S. Department of Defense edition of PRISM. Any copy- Dr. William Reno righted portions of this journal may not be reproduced or extracted without permission of LtGen John F. Sattler, USMC (Ret.) the copyright proprietors. PRISM should be acknowledged whenever material is quoted Dr. James A. Schear from or based on its content. Dr. Joanna Spear Dr. Ruth Wedgwood Please visit NDU Press and PRISM online at www.ndu.edu/press for more on upcoming issues, an electronic archive of PRISM articles, and access to other publications. Subscriptions for individuals: http://bookstore.gpo.gov The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any other agency of the Federal Government. ISSN 2157–0663 FEATURES 3 How to Build Democratic Armies by Zoltan Barany 17 Civil-Military Cooperation: A Way to Resolve Complex Crisis Situations by Hans-Jürgen Kasselmann 31 Making the Afghan Civil-Military Imbalance Conducive to Democratization ndupress.ndu.edu by Christian Bayer Tygesen www.ndu.edu/press 47 Thinking About Strategic Hybrid Threats—In Theory and in Practice by Frank J. Cilluffo and Joseph R. Clark 65 Chinese Organized Crime in Latin America by R. Evan Ellis 79 Adaptive Leadership in Times of Crisis by Chiemi Hayashi and Amey Soo 87 Risk Management of Future Foreign Conflict Intervention by Gordon Woo FROM THE FIELD 101 Stabilization Success in Afghanistan: The Challenges Within by John Acree LESSONS LEARNED 119 Reconstruction Leaders’ Perceptions of CERP in Iraq: Report Overview by Stuart W. Bowen, Jr., and Craig Collier 127 The Human Toll of Reconstruction During Operation Iraqi Freedom: Report Overview by Stuart W. Bowen, Jr., and Craig Collier INTERVIEW 133 An Interview with Richard N. Haass BOOK REviEWS 144 Advancing the Rule of Law Abroad Reviewed by Michelle Hughes 148 The Art of Intelligence Reviewed by Nathaniel L. Moir DOD (Charles W. Gill) Iraqi army soldiers line up to vote in elections in Assariya, Iraq, December 2005 How to Build Democratic Armies BY ZOLTAN baRANY emocratization and thus the building of democratic armies usually take place in response to a major change that shocks the political system and sets it on a new path. DThe pivotal event may have been a long time coming or triggered in response to external causes. There are three categories of events to consider: building an army after war, during regime change, and following state formation. Wars, particularly the two kinds of wars discussed in this article—cataclysmic wars such as World War II and civil wars—typically upset the status quo and induce major political changes that include the rebuilding of the armed forces. In the case of major wars, I am addressing the losing side, the country that suffered a devastating defeat (for example, Germany and Japan). Regime change is another principal reason for building new armies. The old authoritarian regime—here I consider both military and communist regimes such as South Korea and Chile vs. Romania and Russia, respectively—was, by definition, supported by antidemocratic armed forces that must be reformed in order to be the servants of the emerging democratic political order. Finally, state transformation poses another sort of demand for a new military. The two sub- categories of state transformation I take up in this article are those following colonialism (for example, India and Ghana), when a former colony becomes an independent state, and after (re)unification or apartheid (for example, Germany and South Africa), when two different political or social entities are joined. The number of these contexts might be further increased or subdi- vided, but they are broad enough to present most of the different challenges political, military, and civic elites face as they attempt to democratize their armed forces and, more generally, mili- tary politics. In my recently published book, The Soldier and the Changing State,1 I examined the following cases in the contexts and settings shown in the table. Dr. Zoltan Barany is the Frank C. Erwin, Jr., Centennial Professor of Government at the University of Texas. PRISM 4, NO. 1 FEATURES | 3 BARANY Table. Context Setting (following) Cases War Major war West Germany, Japan, Hungary Civil war Bosnia and Herzegovina, El Salvador, Lebanon Regime change Military rule Spain, Portugal, Greece Argentina, Chile, Guatemala South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia Communist rule Slovenia, Russia, Romania State transformation Colonialism India, Pakistan, Bangladesh Ghana, Tanzania, Botswana (Re)unification and Germany, Yemen, South Africa Apartheid Some crucial disparities between these democratization of military politics? What are settings appear even at first glance. For the main conditions and policies that encour- instance, after defeat in a major war, outside age the development of democratic civil-mili- power(s) took on the responsibility to build tary relations and which ones impede it? How new armed forces (West Germany, Japan). does the process of army-building
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