PRISM VOL. 4, NO. 1 2012 PRISM VOL. 4, NO. 1 4, NO. VOL. 2012 www.ndu.edu A JOURNAL OF THE CENTER FOR COMPLEX OPERATIONS PRISM ABOUT CENTER FOR COMPLEX OPERATIONS (CCO) CCO WAS ESTABLISHED TO: PRISM is published by the National Defense University Press for the Center for Complex ■■ Serve as an information clearinghouse and knowledge manager EDITOR Enhancing the U.S. Government’s Ability to for complex operations training and education, acting as a central Operations. 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ISSN 2157–0663 FEATURES 3 How to Build Democratic Armies by Zoltan Barany 17 Civil-Military Cooperation: A Way to Resolve Complex Crisis Situations by Hans-Jürgen Kasselmann 31 Making the Afghan Civil-Military Imbalance Conducive to Democratization ndupress.ndu.edu by Christian Bayer Tygesen www.ndu.edu/press 47 Thinking About Strategic Hybrid Threats—In Theory and in Practice by Frank J. Cilluffo and Joseph R. Clark 65 Chinese Organized Crime in Latin America by R. Evan Ellis 79 Adaptive Leadership in Times of Crisis by Chiemi Hayashi and Amey Soo 87 Risk Management of Future Foreign Conflict Intervention by Gordon Woo FROM THE FIELD 101 Stabilization Success in Afghanistan: The Challenges Within by John Acree LESSONS LEARNED 119 Reconstruction Leaders’ Perceptions of CERP in Iraq: Report Overview by Stuart W. Bowen, Jr., and Craig Collier 127 The Human Toll of Reconstruction During Operation Iraqi Freedom: Report Overview by Stuart W. Bowen, Jr., and Craig Collier INTERVIEW 133 An Interview with Richard N. Haass BOOK REviEWS 144 Advancing the Rule of Law Abroad Reviewed by Michelle Hughes 148 The Art of Intelligence Reviewed by Nathaniel L. Moir DOD (Charles W. Gill) Iraqi army soldiers line up to vote in elections in Assariya, Iraq, December 2005 How to Build Democratic Armies BY ZOLTAN baRANY emocratization and thus the building of democratic armies usually take place in response to a major change that shocks the political system and sets it on a new path. DThe pivotal event may have been a long time coming or triggered in response to external causes. There are three categories of events to consider: building an army after war, during regime change, and following state formation. Wars, particularly the two kinds of wars discussed in this article—cataclysmic wars such as World War II and civil wars—typically upset the status quo and induce major political changes that include the rebuilding of the armed forces. In the case of major wars, I am addressing the losing side, the country that suffered a devastating defeat (for example, Germany and Japan). Regime change is another principal reason for building new armies. The old authoritarian regime—here I consider both military and communist regimes such as South Korea and Chile vs. Romania and Russia, respectively—was, by definition, supported by antidemocratic armed forces that must be reformed in order to be the servants of the emerging democratic political order. Finally, state transformation poses another sort of demand for a new military. The two sub- categories of state transformation I take up in this article are those following colonialism (for example, India and Ghana), when a former colony becomes an independent state, and after (re)unification or apartheid (for example, Germany and South Africa), when two different political or social entities are joined. The number of these contexts might be further increased or subdi- vided, but they are broad enough to present most of the different challenges political, military, and civic elites face as they attempt to democratize their armed forces and, more generally, mili- tary politics. In my recently published book, The Soldier and the Changing State,1 I examined the following cases in the contexts and settings shown in the table. Dr. Zoltan Barany is the Frank C. Erwin, Jr., Centennial Professor of Government at the University of Texas. PRISM 4, NO. 1 FEATURES | 3 BARANY Table. Context Setting (following) Cases War Major war West Germany, Japan, Hungary Civil war Bosnia and Herzegovina, El Salvador, Lebanon Regime change Military rule Spain, Portugal, Greece Argentina, Chile, Guatemala South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia Communist rule Slovenia, Russia, Romania State transformation Colonialism India, Pakistan, Bangladesh Ghana, Tanzania, Botswana (Re)unification and Germany, Yemen, South Africa Apartheid Some crucial disparities between these democratization of military politics? What are settings appear even at first glance. For the main conditions and policies that encour- instance, after defeat in a major war, outside age the development of democratic civil-mili- power(s) took on the responsibility to build tary relations and which ones impede it? How new armed forces (West Germany, Japan). does the process of army-building