POLITICAL MONITOR September 2020

IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITOR September 2020

Headline voting intention All giving a voting intention

Conservative 40% Conservative 39%

Labour 37% Labour 38%

Lib Dems 8% Lib Dem 7%

Green 5% Green 7%

Other 9% Other 8%

Conservative lead = +3 Conservative lead = +1

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 780. Margin of error is Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.

3 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | August 2020 Headline voting intention: Since the 2015 General Election How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?

% Corbyn elected May as PM Johnson as PM Starmer elected (Sept 15) (July 16) (July 19) (Apr 20) 60 September 2020 50 40% Conservative 40 37% Labour 30

Jul 15 Jul Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul

Jan 16 Jan Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan

Mar 18 Mar Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar

Nov 15 Nov Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 16 Nov 17 Sep 17 Nov 18 Sep 18 Nov 19 Sep 19 Nov

May 15 May 16 May 17 May 18 May 19 May 20 May Sep 20 Sep General Election

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019

4 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | August 2020 Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – September ‘20 How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?

% Cameron elected Brown as PM Miliband elected Corbyn elected May as PM Johnson as PM Starmer elected (Dec 05) (June 07) (Sept 10) (Sept 15) (July 16) (July 19) (Apr 20) 60

50 September 2020

40 40% Conservative 37% Labour

8% Lib Dem 10 5% Green 1% UKIP

0 The Brexit Party

Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul

Apr 04 Apr 04 Oct 05 Apr 05 Oct 06 Apr 06 Oct 07 Apr 07 Oct 08 Apr 08 Oct 09 Apr 09 Oct 10 Apr 10 Oct 11 Apr 11 Oct 12 Apr 12 Oct 13 Apr 13 Oct 14 Apr 14 Oct 15 Apr 15 Oct 16 Apr 16 Oct 17 Apr 17 Oct 18 Apr 18 Oct 19 Apr 19 Oct 20 Apr

Jan Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan Jan 04 General Election

5 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | August 2020 SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his job. as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party?

Boris Johnson Keir Starmer The Government Dissatisfied 27%

54% 57% 31% Don’t know 6% 8%

43% 40% 35%

Satisfied Net= -14% Net= +16 Net= -22 -6.5% swing -3% swing -9% swing from August 2020 from August 2020 from August 2020

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor % “dissatisfied”

7 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Boris Johnson: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

September 2020 July 2019 – September 2020 100 40% 90 Satisfied 80 70 40% 6% 60 54% Don’t know Dissatisfied 50 54% 54% 40 30 40% Dissatisfied Satisfied 6% 20

Net = -14 10

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020

Jul-19 Jul-20

Oct-19 Apr-20

Jan-19 Jun-20

Mar-20

Feb-19

Dec-19

Sep-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 May-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

8 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Boris Johnson: Satisfaction among Conservative supporters Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

September 2020 July 2019 – September 2020 100 79% 90 18% Satisfied 80 79% 70 Satisfied 3% 3% 60 Don’t know 50

40 79% 18% Dissatisfied 30 20 18% Dissatisfied Net = +61 10

Base: 305 Conservative party supporters aged 18+, 11-18 September 2020

Jul-19 Jul-20

Oct-19 Apr-20

Jan-20 Jun-20

Feb-20 Mar-20

Sep-19 Dec-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 May-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

9 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2020)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister?

Johnson

Blair

May

Cameron Net satisfaction Net Major

Brown

Thatcher

Johnson

Number of months after becoming prime minister

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

10 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2020)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?

Johnson’s Gov

Blair’s gov

Cameron’s gov

May’s gov Netsatisfaction

Thatcher’s gov

Brown’s gov

Major’s gov

Johnson’s gov

Number of months after assuming government

11 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Keir Starmer: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

September 2020 June – September 2020 100 43% 90 Satisfied 80 27% 70 43% 31% 60 Don’t know 50 43% Satisfied 27% 40 Dissatisfied 30 31% 27% 20 Dissatisfied Net = +16 10

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020

Jul-20

Jun-20

Aug-20 Sep-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

12 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2020) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

Starmer

Starmer Cameron

Corbyn Howard

Miliband Duncan-smith

Blair Hague Net satisfactionNet Smith

Kinnock

Foot

Number of months after becoming opposition leader

13 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Keir Starmer: Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

September 2020 June 2020 – September 2020 100 69% 90 13% Satisfied 80 70 69% Satisfied 18% 18% 60 Don’t know 50

40 69% 13% Dissatisfied 30 20 13% Net = +56 10 Dissatisfied

Base: 333 Labour party supporters aged 18+, 11-18 September 2020

Jul-20

Jun-20

Aug-20 Sep-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

14 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Ed Davey: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Davey is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?

September 2020 (Ed Davey’s first rating) July 2019 (Jo Swinson’s first rating)

17% 28% 17% Satisfied Satisfied 25% 28% 28% 57% 44% Don’t know Don’t know

25% 28% Dissatisfied Dissatisfied 57% Net = -8 44% Net = 0

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

15 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net Rishi Sunak: satisfied Satisfaction Among all

Can you tell me whether you Sept '20 64% 15% 21% +43 are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Rishi Sunak is March '20 45% 37% 17% +28 doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer? Among Conservative party supporters Sept '20 83% 9% 8% +75

March '20 63% 30% 7% +56

Among Labour party supporters

Sept '20 59% 10% 31% +28

March '20 32% 36% 32% 0

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020, Conservative party supporters (305), Labour party supporters (333) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

16 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Satisfaction with the Chancellor of the Exchequer: 1976-2020

Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?

HEALEY HOWE LAWSON MAJOR LAMONT CLARKE BROWN DARLING OSBORNE HAMMOND JAVID 80 67% 70 64% Rishi 57% Sunak 60 52% 47% 50 44% 39% 39% 37% 38% 40 36% 37%

30 % SATISFIED % 20

Note: Data labels denote each Chancellor’s highest satisfaction score

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

17 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Satisfaction with the Chancellor of Exchequer: Highest satisfaction achieved by each Chancellor and corresponding PM rating at time How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as Chancellor/Prime Minister?

Apr-78 Jul-80 Mar-87 Mar-90 Mar-91 Nov-96 Apr-02 Mar-10 Apr-14 Nov-16 Oct-19 Sep-20 80 Healey Sunak (CX: 67%) 70 (CX: 64%) Major Brown May Howe (PM: 58%) (CX: 57%) 60 Callaghan (PM: 54%) (CX: 52%) Osborne Johnson (PM: 64%) Lawson (CX: 47%) (PM: 46%) 50 (CX: 44%) Major Clarke Darling (CX: 39%) (CX: 38%) (CX: 36%)

40 Thatcher Blair % SATISIED % (PM: 44%) (PM: 46%) Hammond Johnson Thatcher Lamont Cameron Javid 30 Major (CX: 39%) (PM: 40%) (PM: 38%) (CX: 37%) Brown (PM: 38%) (CX:37%) (PM: 36%) (PM: 34%) 20 Thatcher 10 (PM: 20%)

CX: Chancellor of the Exchequer, PM: Prime Minister 0

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

18 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

September 2020 January 2007– September 2020 80

66% 70 66% 3% Get worse Get worse 60

21% 10% 50 Stay the same 40

10% 21% 30 66% Improve 21% 20 Improve 3% Don’t know 10 10% Stay the same 0

EOI = -45 20

Jul-07 Jul-17

Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-15 Oct-15 Oct-16 Apr-20

Jan-07 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jun-16 Jan-18 Jun-18 Jun-19

Feb-16 Feb-17

Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-18 Dec-19

Aug-08 Aug-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Aug-20

Sep

May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

20 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Economic Optimism Index (1998-2020) Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

-20

-40 Net optimism -45% -60

-80

Jul 2005 Jul Jul 1999 Jul 2002 Jul 2008 Jul 2011 Jul 2014 Jul 2017 Jul 2020 Jul

Apr 2015 Apr Oct 1998 Oct 2000 Apr 2001 Oct 2003 Apr 2004 Oct 2006 Apr 2007 Oct 2009 Apr 2010 Oct 2012 Apr 2013 Oct 2016 Oct 2018 Apr 2019 Oct

Jan 1998 Jan 2001 Jan 2004 Jan 2007 Jan 2010 Jan 2013 Jan 2016 Jan 2019 Jan Sep 2020 Sep

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

21 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 LEADERS AND PARTIES

© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential 37% Starmer A capable leader Leader image: 44% lead +7 32% Johnson v Starmer Good in a crisis Tie 31% I am going to read out some Has sound judgement 30% Starmer things both favourable and 43% lead +13 Understands the 43% Starmer unfavourable that have been problems facing Britain 50% lead +7 said about various Out of touch 58% Starmer politicians. Which of these, if with ordinary people 27% lead -31 Johnson any, do you think apply to… Has got a lot of personality 67% 25% lead +42 Gives me confidence 30% Tie for Britain’s future 29% 68% Johnson Patriotic 43% lead +25 More honest 27% Starmer than most politicians 36% lead +9 46% Starmer More style than substance lead -25 Boris Keir 21% A good representative for Starmer Johnson Starmer 30% Britain on the world stage 42% lead +12

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020

23 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 44% Starmer A capable leader Leader image: 21% lead +23 31% Starmer Starmer v Corbyn Good in a crisis 20% lead +11 I am going to read out some Has sound judgement 43% Starmer things both favourable and 25% lead +18 Understands the 50% Starmer unfavourable that have been problems facing Britain 43% lead +7 said about various Out of touch 27% Starmer politicians. Which of these, if with ordinary people 45% lead -18 25% any, do you think apply to… Has got a lot of personality Tie 25% Gives me confidence 29% Starmer for Britain’s future 19% lead +10 43% Starmer Patriotic 36% lead +7 More honest 36% Tie than most politicians 37% 21% Starmer More style than substance Keir Jeremy 27% lead -6 Starmer Corbyn A good representative for 42% Starmer Britain on the world stage 20% lead +22 Sept ‘20 Sept ‘19 Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020

24 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 37% A capable leader Leader image: 36% 32% Johnson trend Good in a crisis 32% I am going to read out some Has sound judgement 30% things both favourable and 31% Understands the 43% unfavourable that have been problems facing Britain 43% said about various Out of touch 58% politicians. Which of these, if with ordinary people 60% any, do you think apply to… Has got a lot of personality 67% 76% Gives me confidence 30% Boris for Britain’s future 30% Johnson 68% Patriotic Sept ‘20 63% Boris More honest 27% than most politicians 27% Johnson 46% More style than substance Sept ‘19 56% A good representative for 30% Britain on the world stage 30%

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020

25 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 37% Sunak A capable leader Leader image: 41% lead +4 32% Sunak Johnson v Sunak Good in a crisis 54% lead +22 I am going to read out some Has sound judgement 30% Sunak things both favourable and 49% lead +19 Understands the 43% Sunak unfavourable that have been problems facing Britain 55% lead +12 said about various Out of touch 58% Sunak politicians. Which of these, if with ordinary people 31% lead -27 Johnson any, do you think apply to… Has got a lot of personality 67% 33% lead +34 Gives me confidence 30% Sunak Boris Johnson for Britain’s future 39% lead +9 68% Johnson Patriotic Rishi Sunak 48% lead +20 More honest 27% Sunak than most politicians 41% lead +14 46% Sunak More style than substance 22% lead -24 A good representative for 30% Sunak Britain on the world stage 47% lead +17

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020

26 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Leader image: 69% Johnson A capable leader Johnson v Sunak 52% lead +17 57% Sunak Good in a crisis Among 66% lead +9 Has sound judgement 54% Sunak Conservative voters 66% lead +12 Understands the 69% I am going to read out some Tie problems facing Britain 71% things both favourable and Out of touch 32% Sunak unfavourable that have been with ordinary people 20% lead -12 Johnson said about various Has got a lot of personality 76% politicians. Which of these, if 48% lead +28 Gives me confidence 61% any, do you think apply to… Tie for Britain’s future 61% 84% Johnson Patriotic Boris Johnson 63% lead +21 More honest 45% Sunak Rishi Sunak than most politicians 58% lead +13 39% Sunak More style than substance 17% lead -22 A good representative for 60% Tie Britain on the world stage 61%

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020. Conservative party supporters (305)

27 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 41% Starmer A capable leader Leader image: 44% lead +3 54% Sunak Sunak v Starmer Good in a crisis 31% lead +23 Sunak I am going to read out some Has sound judgement 49% things both favourable and 43% lead +6 Understands the 55% Sunak unfavourable that have been problems facing Britain 50% lead +5 said about various Out of touch 31% Starmer politicians. Which of these, if with ordinary people 27% lead -4 Sunak any, do you think apply to… Has got a lot of personality 33% 25% lead +8 Gives me confidence 39% Sunak Rishi Sunak for Britain’s future 29% lead +10 48% Sunak Patriotic Keir Starmer 43% lead +5 More honest 41% Sunak than most politicians 36% lead +5 22% More style than substance Tie 21% A good representative for 47% Sunak Britain on the world stage 42% lead +5

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020

28 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Likeability of party leaders: 2007-2020

Which of these statements come closest to your views of … and the … party?

Like the leader of the Conservatives Like the leader of the Labour party

GE2010 GE2017 GE2019 80% GE2015

Keir Theresa Starmer 60% 54% 60% May Boris David Cameron Johnson 51% 47% 48% 45% 46% 43% 44% 44% 41% 40% 36% 39% 45%

37% 37% 38% 36% 35% 36% 31% 32% 29% 30% 30% Jeremy 20% Gordon Brown Ed Miliband Corbyn 23%

2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Base: c.1000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Which of these statements come closest to your views of … and the … party?

Like the Labour party Like the Conservative party

GE2010 GE2017 GE2019 80% GE2015

Jeremy Corbyn Ed Miliband 57% 60% 54% 51% 52% 49% 50% 49% 45% 46% 43% 42% 38% 40% 39% 42% 42% 39% 41% 38% 37% 38% 38% 38% 38% Gordon Brown 35% Boris Keir David Cameron Theresa Johnson 29% Starmer 20% May

2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Base: c.1000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Which of these statements come closest to your views of … and the Labour party?

Like the Labour party Like the leader of the Labour party

Gordon Brown Ed Miliband Jeremy Corbyn Keir Starmer 80% GE2010 GE2015 GE2017 GE2019

57% 60% 54% 51% 52% 51% 49% 50% 49% 45% 46% 38% 39% 39% 40% 46%

37% 37% 38% 36% 35% 36% 31% 32% 29% 30% 30% 20% 23%

2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Base: c.1000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

31 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Likeability of the Conservative party and its leaders: 2007-2019

Which of these statements come closest to your views of … and the Conservative party?

Like the Conservative party Like the leader of the Conservatives

David Cameron Theresa May Boris Johnson 80% GE2010 GE2015 GE2017 GE2019

60% 54% 60% 47% 48% 45% 45% 43% 44% 44% 41% 40% 36% 39% 43% 42% 42% 42% 39% 41% 38% 37% 38% 38% 38% 35% 29% 20%

2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Base: c.1000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Which of these statements come closest to your views of Boris Johnson, and the Conservative party?

Boris Johnson and the Conservative party 30% I like Boris Johnson and I like the Conservative party Total like Boris Johnson 45% 15% I like Boris Johnson but I do not like the Conservative party Total do not like Boris Johnson 51% 12% I do not like Boris Johnson but I like the Conservative party Total like the Conservative party 42% 39% I do not like Boris Johnson and I do not like the Conservative party Total do not like the Conservative party 54% 5% Don’t know

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Which of these statements come closest to your views of Keir Starmer, and the Labour party?

Keir Starmer and the Labour party 26% I like Keir Starmer and I like the Labour party Total like Keir Starmer 51% 25% I like Keir Starmer but I do not like the Labour party Total do not like Keir Starmer 35% 12% I do not like Keir Starmer but I like the Labour party Total like the Labour party 38% 23% I do not like Keir Starmer and I do not like the Labour party Total do not like the Labour party 48% 14% Don’t know

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

34 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Likeability: Labour I like the leader and the 26% leader and party Labour party 20% I like the leader but do not 25% Which of these statements come like the Labour party 3% closest to your views of Keir I do not like the leader but 12% Starmer/Jeremy Corbyn, and the do like the Labour party 29% Labour party? I do not like either the 23% leader or the Labour party 44% 14% Don’t know 4%

Total “like” the 51% Labour leader 23% Keir Jeremy Total “like” the 38% Starmer Corbyn Labour party 49% Sept ‘20 Nov ‘19

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Please tell me how confident, if at all, you are that … will get a good deal for Britain in negotiations with other European Union leaders?

March 2017 – September 2020 100%

Theresa 78% 79% 80% 80% 77% May 72% Boris 67% 67% 63% 64% Johnson 59% 58% 60% 60% 70% 58% 60% 69% 51% Not confident 53%

37% 40% 34% 41% 39% 44% 28% 39% 36% Confident 35% 33% 30% 30% 20% 25% 23% 21% 19% 18% 18%

Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20

Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20

Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19

Sep-19 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-20

May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020

37 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Confidence in the Prime Minister to get a good Brexit deal: Among Conservative party supporters

Please tell me how confident, if at all, you are that … will get a good deal for Britain in negotiations with other European Union leaders?

March 2017 – September 2020 100% Theresa 80% 73% May Boris 66% 67% 67% Johnson 74% 64% 62% 64% 60% 62% 74% Confident 60% 55% 60% 53% 54% 56% 51%

43% 40% 47% 45% 42% 39% 36% 37% 36% 37% 25% 33% 34% 33% 30% 32% 20% 26% 25% Not confident

Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20

Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

Nov-19 Nov-17 Nov-18

Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20

May-18 May-19 May-20

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020 (circa 300-400 Conservative supporters per wave)

38 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Confidence in the Confident Not confident Labour leader to Keir Starmer get a good Brexit deal Sept 2020 37% 50%

And if Keir Starmer was Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister, how confident, if at all, would you be that he would get a Mar 2019 21% 76% good deal for Britain in negotiations with other Sep 2018 28% 67% European Union leaders?

Mar 2018 33% 63%

July 2017 29% 67%

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020

39 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 Has the Government done a good or bad job preparing for a “no deal” Brexit? When thinking about the possibility of Britain leaving the transition period with the EU without a deal, do you think the Government has done a good job or a bad job preparing for this situation?

A good job A bad job

September 2020 26% 63% May 2019 13% 80% February 2019 15% 77%

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020

40 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020 The Government and Most to blame Change since March ‘19 the EU would get the % Position largest share of blame The UK government 44% -4 if no deal is reached The European Union 40% +8 +1 p And if Britain and other Conservative MPs 35% - -1 q European Union leaders fail to reach an agreement on the Brexit campaigners 31% -3 new terms of Britain's future relationship with the EU by Remain campaigners 15% -8 +1 p the time the transition period The Labour Party 13% -10 -1 q ends, which two or three of the following, if any, do you Other opposition parties 10% - think will be most to blame? No-one 1% +1 +1 p

Other 0% -2 -1 q

Don't know 7% -1

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020

September 2020 Political Monitor

For more information

Gideon Skinner Cameron Garrett Research Director Senior Research Executive [email protected] [email protected]

Keiran Pedley Dylan Spielman Research Director Research Executive [email protected] [email protected]