sign in sign up
<<
Home , David Willetts, Ed Davey, Ministerial Broadcast, Plebgate

ANNUALANNUAL POLICY REVIEWPOLICY REVIEW

2014 Portland is a strategic communications consultancy for the digital age.

We help major brands, governments, campaign organisations and high-profile individuals tell their story clearly and successfully.

We are trusted by corporate, public and not-for-profit clients to advise on strategic communications, public affairs and digital engagement.

But where we excel is bringing all these disciplines together for truly integrated campaigns.

2 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 Overview 04 The Economy 06 Health 10 Energy 14 Foreign Affairs 18 Defence & National Security 22 Crime & Justice 26 Localism 30 Jobs & Welfare 34 Constitutional Reform 38 Equalities 42 Media 44 Education 48 OVERVIEW James O’Shaughnessy 2014 began with a policy ‘bang’, tough decisions that Britain needs with the Prime Minister using his to thrive, and hope that Labour’s first interview of the year to commit polling advantage on cost of living to continuing the triple-lock on issues will erode as unemployment increases in old age pensions in the falls and wages begin to outstrip next Parliament. This first salvo of inflation. The Conservatives want what will be a policy-heavy battle to be, in their words, on the side of was aimed at exactly the people – the hard-working people. But to confound over 55s – whose support for the the durable impression, confirmed by Conservatives and electoral turnout is Lord Ashcroft’s research, that they greatest. are the party of the rich will involve radical policy shifts for the manifesto. The Conservatives’ Backing an increase in the minimum political strategy for wage has had an impact, but the party will be looking to offer more in 2015, the next 18 months is with a big move on house-building the clear – pick issues where most likely area of focus. they believe Labour to 2014 is a huge year for the opposition be weak or out of touch party. Having had some significant successes in the last two years, and hammer home their the leadership is confident. Helped attacks relentlessly. by the Liberal Democrats being in government and the rise of UKIP, It is significant that the Chancellor Labour believe they have assembled used his first intervention of the enough of a ‘coalition of the left’ to year to talk about the need for more unseat the Prime Minister and put cuts – the area where Labour is most in No.10. The huge gap vulnerable – and we will see further in voting intentions of, for example, interventions on spending, welfare, teachers – among whom Labour lead immigration and Europe. by 41% over Conservatives, with the Lib Dems doing even worse – is The Conservative part of the Coalition reassuring but other polling concerns will seek to portray itself as the only remain, especially on leadership and political party capable of taking the economic competence.

4 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 Labour are convinced that enough So the battle lines for the election of the public are ready to consider are pretty clear – the Conservatives ‘varieties of capitalism’, a concept positioning themselves as the doctor floated by Miliband’s key adviser whose medicine is finally beginning Stewart Wood, and this year they will to cure the patient but needs more need to put policy flesh on the bones. time. Labour will place themselves on The energy price freeze is fading in the side of ordinary people, making salience and popularity, and further sure that the fruits of recovery are concrete examples are needed of how not enjoyed solely by the best off. And a Labour government would help with the Liberal Democrats as the voice of the cost of living in an age of austerity. reason, ensuring the wilder instincts of the main parties are not given free The situation for the Liberal Democrats rein. is, apparently, more bleak than at any other time during the last four years. The fly in the ointment is, of course, Their polling figures show no sign UKIP. To describe them as policy-lite of political recovery and they could is an understatement, but their power well end up with no MEPs after the comes from what they are not: the upcoming European elections. Yet they Westminster elite. All parties now have are quietly confident of retaining the to factor this strand of anti-politics into majority of their Westminster seats their calculations, as the increasingly strident positions on immigration of and finding a permanent role in British both the Conservatives and Labour politics as the great moderators. show. With the European Elections As Sir has made only months away, UKIP could have a clear, it is in the Lib Dems’ interests to profound effect on politics and policy ensure the Coalition ends well and that in the next 18 months. Or they might the public would contemplate similar not – only time will tell. arrangements in the future.

So will be perfectly happy that the newspapers continue to James is Portland’s Chief Policy Adviser. cover his attacks on “ideological” Conservative Cabinet colleagues, and Before joining Portland, he was Director of Policy he wants more credit for keeping the for for four years, 2007-2011. public services out of private hands. He was responsible for drafting the Conservative Party’s 2010 general election manifesto, This strategy of fiscal credibility with co-authored the Coalition’s Programme for a caring face is where Clegg wants to Government, and played a leading role in position the party, and in particular he managing the Coalition Government’s policy programme during its first 18 months. wants the Lib Dems to be seen as on the side of working parents. THE ECONOMY

Achieved More to Do Stalled / Dropped

Reshaping of monetary Work still needs to The jury remains out on policy under Mark be done to finalise the success of LEPs and Carney the delivery of major the Regional Growth infrastructure projects Fund, designed to boost Progress towards deficit regional economies and reduction targets small businesses Avoidance of double-dip Simplification of the recession and return to tax code has made little respectable growth progress

6 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 Ben Wright | Senior Account Manager

The Unexpected Dangers

Office of Budget Measures to boost Monetary looseness Responsibility growth fail, leaving the leads to a housing revision of Government with little bubble, higher inflation forecasts room to manoeuvre and negative growth in ahead of 2015 real incomes Additional Eurozone Uncertainty engendered shocks by Bank of forward guidance and new criteria for interest rate policy

George Osborne is still However, the Chancellor entered 2014 in bullish form with his critics some way from being seemingly in retreat, and even the IMF able to predict with any coming round to his strategy. real confidence the kind Mr Osborne used the 2013 Autumn of tangible recovery Statement to claim credit for the return to growth, painting a picture of which he hopes will a healthier economy in the future, but carry the Conservatives also claiming only his policies could into the next general see that through. While he had missed his initial targets for deficit reduction, election, but he can and economic growth remained undoubtedly claim to a fairly modest 1.4%, all the signs seemed to be pointing in the right have set the economic direction. Suddenly, the Chancellor’s policy weather. supporters were able to brandish his detractors’ predictions of doom and Framed against bailouts and imposed point out how wrong they had all been. budgets in the Eurozone, the Chancellor has stuck firmly to his The major policies for achieving this ‘Plan A’. triumph remained in the hands of the Bank of England. New Governor Mark Although he will fail to meet his initial Carney has issued forward guidance target to eliminate the structural designed to reassure the markets deficit by 2015-16, he will point to that cheap money will be available the tortuous delivery of an initial for some time to come, with decisions £12 billion in departmental spending on future interest rates taken in light cuts as hard evidence of the ‘tough of unemployment data as well as decisions’ which have become the inflation. Coalition’s credo. This guidance already appears to be Expert analysis has not always under strain: unemployment is already been kind. The IMF has accused the coming close to the 7% threshold with Chancellor of “playing with fire” by inflation still ahead of target, but an refusing to budge from his deficit interest rate rise remains politically reduction strategy during a sustained very difficult. The Bank may have to period of negligible growth which has interpret its own guidance with some given plenty of opportunities flexibility and will certainly have to to perform his favourite ‘flat lining’ consider carefully its next long term gesture from the Opposition front statement of intent. bench.

8 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 In terms of fiscal policy, austerity has become more or less a permanent state, and any belief in using ECONOMY government spending to stimulate growth is limited to infrastructure projects. The one major exception to this is the help to buy scheme, which has seen a healthy take-up, initially supporting new-build sales. Whether this scheme injects more inflation into the housing market is another question. And it is in this gap between rising prices and stagnating wages that Labour will be directing all its firepower in the next year and a half. To win the argument, the Chancellor will have to ensure the personal feel of the economy is good, not just the headline figures. HEALTH

Achieved More to Do Stalled / Dropped

Cap on the cost of Making the case for Greater role for social care at £75,000 NHS reforms and independent sector regaining the trust of providers Creation of NHS the medical profession England and Clinical Commissioning Groups Providing more care in community settings to Devolution of public ease hospital pressures health to local authorities Implementing Francis recommendations

A 7-day service

10 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 Katie Russell | Senior Account Manager

The Unexpected Dangers

A&E waiting times crisis Failure to deliver the Lack of public efficiency savings acceptance that some CQC in turmoil after needed to ensure a hospitals or services Mid-Staffs and other barely growing real may need to close high profile failings terms health budget keeps up with demand Resignation of Sir David Nicholson Continued public spats with the medical Ongoing concern about profession NHS 111 phone line Immigrant / “health tourist” use of the NHS As a reward for successful stewardship telephone helpline service, 111, has of the Olympics, former DCMS been less than smooth. Secretary was promoted to the health brief in September 2012. In mitigation, Hunt has tried to pin the blame on the GP contract One of the hardest jobs in British negotiated by Labour in 2004, which politics, the chalice was poisoned controversially enabled GPs to opt further by the controversial NHS out of providing out-of-hours care, reforms introduced by Andrew but these claims have been met with Lansley, himself a veteran in the predictable anger by the medical health portfolio of almost eight years. profession. By the time Mr Hunt took over, Mr Lansley was struggling to maintain At the end of 2013 Sir support among the wider healthcare Bruce Keogh announced community, and a new face was seen as essential. “radical” weekend working plans, leaving Mr Hunt’s major accomplishment has been to bring forward a Care Bill that hospitals contractually will cap the cost of social care for bound to deliver a full older people at £75,000. While this is service, seven days a considerably less generous than the £35,000 cap recommended by Andrew week. Implementation of Dilnot’s report for Government on these plans across the adult care costs, it still represents a NHS, including pilots in significant step forward in a thorny area where many politicians have primary care, is likely failed before. to dominate the 2014 Mr Hunt has also made progress health agenda. in providing patients with more Achieving sizeable cost information about the people treating savings remains a top priority them, with moves to publish surgeons’ for the NHS. The outgoing survival rates and to introduce Ofsted- Chief Executive at NHS style inspections for GPs. England, Sir David Nicholson, But his “to do” list is far longer. has made it clear that his A&E services are said to have original ambition to find reached crisis, following a number of £20bn worth of savings by contentious attempts to rationalise 2015 did not go far enough. / close emergency units, and the Now the NHS must save an introduction of the out-of-hours additional £30bn by 2020/21.

12 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 In this tough fiscal context the recently The passing of the NHS announced heads of agreement reforms and the early for the 2014 Pharmaceutical Price stages of implementation

Regulation Scheme (PPRS) included an HEALTH only represent the tip unprecedented commitment to keep NHS expenditure on branded medicines of the iceberg. The real flat for two years, with industry challenge for Mr Hunt underwriting any further expenditure starts now, with pressures by the NHS within agreed boundaries. on the NHS set only to rise with increasing levels of Value Based Assessment frailty, rising incidence of (VBA) proposals continue chronic conditions, and to weigh heavy on the the dementia challenge Department, NICE and ever present. Talk of new models of industry. integrated care and whole system transformation will dominate the A consultation is set to run through conversation in 2014, and as of April 2014, but it is broadly accepted that all eyes will be on NHS England’s new Lansley’s original, ground-breaking Chief Executive, , a proposals for a new way of interpreting the value of medicines are now reduced former Labour adviser and one of the to mere tinkering around the edges. world’s leading healthcare reformers.

Issues of access and Going into the election, the NHS will uptake of medicines be one of the key battlegrounds. will remain on the Having promised no top-down agenda long after reorganisations and then delivered one, VBA is finalised. The Office of the Conservatives will be desperate Life Sciences to convince voters the NHS is safe in is due for a their hands. Labour holds a significant shake-up, polling lead in this area, and while the with David Shadow Health Secretary is hidebound Willetts, the by both his own record in office and his BIS Minister responsible for predictions of NHS collapse, he hopes Life Sciences, to go into the election with a popular intent on policy reform: the long wished-for tackling the integration of health and social care. issue head on. ENERGY

Achieved More to Do

The Energy Bill The Government has Deciding way forward received Royal Assent provided funding of on green subsidies in December 2013 £3 billion to the UK Green Investment Convincing the public Agreement announced Bank to help support and certain spheres of for new investment in sustainable projects in media and politics on nuclear generation at the UK potential of . Hinkley

14 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 Simon Tiernan | Senior Account Manager

The Unexpected Dangers

Extra say for Winter storms and Government’s recent communities over siting power outages over announcement on of onshore wind farms Christmas green levies has placed increased expectations Shift of policy on ‘green Public protests in on suppliers to reduce taxes’ Balcombe around shale energy prices for consumers Successful Labour drilling attack on energy prices Rising cost factors

continue to drive up

energy prices despite

Government action

The February resignation of Chris Above all, the Huhne saw move from his role in BIS to become Secretary of major challenge the State for Energy and . Government has faced Mr Davey is a known environmentalist is security of supply and lists environmental causes as the key reason for coming into politics. for the future, with One of Davey’s biggest challenges has an ageing generating been the passage of the Energy Bill infrastructure and through Parliament. The Energy Bill uncertain trends in oil received criticism from a cross-section of MPs — Energy and Climate Change and gas production. Select Committee member Barry Recognising the changing nature Gardiner commented that the failure of traditional oil and gas supplies, to introduce a decarbonisation target the Government asked Sir Ian was a broken pledge: “all pretence Wood to look at how to harness the of meeting our carbon budgets and industry’s future. The Wood Review, emission targets will be abandoned.” commissioned in 2013, has already This apparent failure of Mr issued interim recommendations Davey to stand up for Liberal that a new oil regulator be set up to Democrat principles will dismay oversee the next phase of exploration environmentalists in the party grass in the North Sea, with the aim of roots. The Secretary of State has ensuring greater coordination certainly had to take hard decisions: between competing companies. for instance the announcement that The deal to inject private funds onshore wind farms should include to develop new nuclear capacity greater consultation from developers at Hinkley Point C, with a with the local communities in which guaranteed high price for the they are proposed. This is seen by the electricity, was welcomed by just green lobby as a sop to Conservative about everyone except fervent MPs, who themselves are concerned anti-nuclear campaigners, albeit about the creation of wind farms in with certain reservations about their constituencies. the long-term costs. Recognising the future may lie in more innovative sources of energy, the Prime Minister and Chancellor, both advocates of shale gas, have announced a

16 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 series of tax breaks and sweeteners general taxation. Whether for local authorities in areas where this has shot the Labour fracking might take place. Some fox remains to be seen.

MPs remain cautious given the local ENERGY opposition they will face - particularly With Labour keeping up in the run up to an election - and the attack, the status the environmental lobby remains quo in the energy supply vehemently opposed. market is not politically sustainable. Despite Despite the deep concern about the the nervous investment UK’s energy security, the statement climate, all the parties are which most made the political weather having to contemplate was the dramatic energy freeze structural reform of the policy announced by Ed Miliband at market. Whether any of the Labour Party conference, This that becomes Coalition policy before tapped into the feeling that people the election probably depends on generally get a raw deal from the whether competing Lib Dem and Tory ‘big six’, a feeling probably enhanced instincts can be accommodated. in households who spent Christmas without any power. The Coalition’s reaction at first concentrated on the inadvisability of trying to fix prices, but ministers soon seemed to realise that something in the public mood needed addressing. Their response, somewhat counter-intuitively, was to shift green subsidies out of energy bills into FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Achieved More to Do

Successful intervention Agreement with Pushing for more in Libya Iran over nuclear commercial diplomacy development Commitment on an EU Cross border referendum in 2017 Agreement with Syria cooperation on tax over the removal of avoidance Sustaining 0.7% aid chemical weapons budget Longer term nuclear agreement required with Iran

18 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 Harry Watson | Account Manager

Stalled / Dropped The Unexpected Dangers

Failure to get The election of a liberal Syria Parliamentary support reformist and the to intervene in Syria potential of a nuclear Iran Iran 0.7% aid budget EU referendum dropped from the Tensions with Argentina Afghanistan withdrawal Queen Speech over the Falklands leading to further instability

The Coalition’s foreign policy has had agreement and securing long term to adjust to the Arab Spring and the peace and security in the region looks uncertain period it ushered in. This set to remain high on the agenda. adjustment has been most stark in Syria, which has generated major geo- All of this traditional deployment of political debate since the first uprising force and diplomacy, however, has not against Assad in 2011. Continuing been the limit of the Government’s danger in the region, including the use foreign policy objectives. The Coalition of chemical weapons and the recent has pursued two other agendas suspicious death of British doctor abroad, meeting with success and Abbas Khan, points the way to further controversy in each case. difficulties. The pledge to keep up a level of With the Government’s successful spending on foreign aid amounting to intervention in Libya and the EU 0.7% of GDP – controversial with many Foreign Minister lifting the arms on the Conservative backbenches – embargo against Syria, there was has been maintained although not speculation that the UK could be enshrined in statute as suggested by dragged into a fresh military conflict, the Coalition agreement. Addressing in which the supply of arms to the some of the disquiet about where the Assad opposition was merely a first money goes, the Government has step. However, this proved a step too undertaken a full review of UK aid far for the British Parliament, which policy, which has resulted in aid being refused to support further action. stopped to 16 countries. The complexity of the situation on the ground in Syria made the case With the Government’s for intervention one that was far growth agenda from clear-cut, with the Coalition concerned about certain factions of remaining front and the opposition fighters, their motives centre, the focus on elsewhere, and ambitions. using foreign policy Following the appointment of the to promote trade reformist President Dr Haasan and attract inward Rouhani in Iran, the UK helped achieve significant progress on the nuclear investment has issue, with the landmark agreement continued. made in November 2013 whereby Iran agreed to curb some of its nuclear The Government has significantly activities for six months in return for expanded the UK’s diplomatic corps, some sanctions relief. While this was a with an emphasis on emerging significant step it is only a short term markets, as well as a focus on the

20 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 special relationship with India, and One issue that could never strengthening ties with . However quite be put to bed is the the intermingling of economic and EU. David Cameron had FOREIGN diplomatic goals has not been without previously warned his AFFAIRS its issues, with Cameron’s trips to the Party not to be “banging Middle East and India coming in for on about Europe” criticism. while voters concerned themselves with other The Government does claim successes issues, but the rise of in this new model for foreign policy: UKIP forced his hand and the Prime Minister’s recent visit to he has promised that the China secured £6bn in trade deals, electorate will “have their and the Chancellor’s preceding visit say” on Europe in 2017, resulted in being established following negotiations as first centre for trading Chinese about repatriating powers. This issue currency outside of China. In addition will be an on-going point of tension in the Government have claimed victories the Party, especially with the likelihood with a £4.4bn Airbus contract with that UKIP will make major gains in the the Philippines and for securing a new upcoming European election. Already, deal for a Jaguar Land Rover plant in cracks are showing – 116 Conservative Liverpool. MPs voted against the Queen’s Speech, backing an amendment expressing regret that a referendum bill was not included as part of the Coalition’s programme. The Prime Minister will hope Europe does not become a defining issue at the next general election. DEFENCE & NATIONAL SECURITY

Achieved More to Do Stalled / Dropped

Balanced budget Trident replacement Communications Data programme Bill Continued progress on capital projects See the Defence Privatised defence Reform Bill pass procurement model Afghanistan: significant through Parliament / troop withdrawls, and fully develop DE&S+ end of NATO combat procurement model mission this year

22 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 DEFENCE & NATIONAL SECURITY Fred Stephens | Senior Account Manager

The Unexpected Dangers

Terrorism/Woolwich Long term effects of Defence spending – how attacks defence procurement far will Hammond go to reform remain unclear defend spending levels? Edward Snowden leaks Will it be possible to More Civilian job cuts recruit enough Army Reservists to fill the gaps left by reductions in troop numbers?

Defence Secretary taken in 2016, but the programme’s future looks less uncertain than it did ’s a year ago. main achievement, One embarrassment for the and the one that many Government, though, has been its speculated would be his failure fully to realise plans to reform defence procurement. The Defence main challenge when Reform Bill is still making its way he was appointed, has through the legislative process. But been to build on the plans to privatise the organisation responsible for procurement have work of his predecessor had to be dropped, after all but one of Dr and exert the private sector consortia bidding for the contract dropped out. Instead, greater control on MoD the existing Defence Equipment & spending. Support organisation will be beefed-up to ensure it is, in Hammond’s words, In the main, Mr Hammond has been “match-fit”; what this looks like in able to boast of his success in this practice remains to be seen. endeavour, although not without the occasional setback such as the revisions to the price for the Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carriers. However, it is the UK’s next major capital defence project, the successor to the Vanguard SSBN submarines, which occupied much of the political attention in 2013. The publication of the long-awaited Trident Alternatives Review was not the game-changing intervention the Liberal Democrats may have hoped. While Labour has not fully committed to a like-for-like replacement for the current system, the Lib Dems are still the only party calling for a continuous at-sea deterrent to be dropped. The final decision on Trident renewal will be

24 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 The most high-profile developments in Before it was blocked national security policy over the past by the Lib Dems earlier DEFENCE & year came not from government action in the year the Draft NATIONAL SECURITY but from the Edward Communications Data Bill Snowden. was already controversial, but if it were ever to The revelations about the activities of be revived (as law the NSA and the UK’s own GCHQ have enforcement agencies had two important consequences. continue to call for) we First, the structures in place to can now expect it to

be couched in a much scrutinise the activities of the security agencies are now being broader debate about the openly questioned. Second, the balance between security public and political interest in privacy and personal privacy. and communications data has been significantly broadened. CRIME & JUSTICE

Achieved More to Do Stalled / Dropped

Extradition of Abu Make PCCs a success UK Bill of Rights Qatada See through police and Communications Introduction of PCCs justice system reforms. Data Bill

Windsor reforms to police pay and conditions

26 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 CRIME & JUSTICE Alex Burrell | Account Manager

The Unexpected Dangers

Renewed terrorism Entrenched opposition Cuts to budget – police threat to legal aid cuts from pay / security the legal professions Votes for prisoners Crime and justice has justice system agreed in May to another 10% reduction in budget in continued to be a 2015-16. policy area in which the In both cases, two Coalition parties’ and Justice Secretary political instincts clash. have stressed the need for reform and the importance of Traditional Conservative protecting the most important front responses to crime line delivery. But inevitably, the quest and terrorism in the for savings has led to tension with the professionals charged with delivery. form of greater police The Government’s legal aid reforms powers and tougher have seen strong opposition within the sentences have rubbed legal professions (culminating in the up awkwardly against first ever strike by the criminal bar), while the Police Federation has issued Liberal Democrat warnings about the effects on front concerns for civil line policing of squeezed budgets. liberties. Indeed, the relationship between politicians and police has threatened The murder in Woolwich was a to be extremely problematic for the reminder that the threats to the public Government, and one which became are real, and the Government has poisoned in the aftermath to the continued its strategy of neutralising ‘plebgate’ controversy. The police the terrorist threat where it can. A handling of an altercation with Chief milestone in this journey was the saw even extradition of Abu Qatada in July natural political allies reluctant to back last year after a series of frustrating them publicly. legal delays. More contentious was the detention of David Miranda This was a good example of how – partner of Guardian journalist despite grand strategies and long term Glenn Greenwald – at Heathrow for reforms, one-off events can make possession of classified documents. a huge impact. More than any just about any other policy brief, crime and All of this has of course taken place justice is prone to unexpected crises against a backdrop of budget cuts, and mishaps which leave politicians affecting both policing and the justice in trouble. Steering clear of any such system. Police forces in England and unwelcome surprises will be the main Wales will endure a 20% reduction preoccupation of ministers between in funds over three years, while the now and May 2015.

28 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 CRIME AND JUSTICE LOCALISM

Achieved More to Do Stalled / Dropped

Successfully navigated Although there is Proposed changes the Growth and evidence that schemes to make it easier Infrastructure Act such as Help to Buy are for homeowners to through Parliament boosting construction, build extensions were there is still pressure significantly watered Introduced changes to on the government to down following a the system of permitted boost house building Commons revolt development rights Implementing planning Further planning reform PCCs introduced (albeit changes to improve looks increasingly with weak mandates mobile coverage and unlikely this side of the due to the universally the roll out of 4G general election low voter turnout) services across the UK

30 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 LOCALISM Joanna McGowan | Researcher

The Unexpected Dangers

Public opposition to The issue of green belt A further 10% cut to fracking has challenged development continues the DCLG departmental politicians to work out to divide the Coalition budget. how local people can and is an increasingly share in the financial divisive issue at the top Further local benefits of this new of the Conservative government cuts hitting energy source Party in particular public services The Government’s localism agenda One notable Government success is suffered a huge setback following the new Growth and Infrastructure the Police and Crime Commissioner Act, which passed in April last (PCC) elections last November and has year despite opposition from rural struggled to recover ever since. lobbying groups. The Department for Communities and Local Government Historically low voter turnout, ranging (DCLG) has also made some headway from 13 to 20 per cent of those eligible, in changing the system of permitted has thrown doubt on whether PCCs development rights to make it easier have a legitimate mandate. Although for empty or underused buildings to this follows on from a similar rejection be repurposed for other uses, and for of directly elected mayors, it indicates commercial spaces to be turned into - worryingly for the Coalition - a real homes. lack of public engagement in one of its flagship policies. Moreover, there are However, it is now unlikely that the early reports that Police and Crime Government will build on these Commissioners are costing more than achievements to pursue any further their predecessor police authorities, radical reform of the planning which if true will further undermine regime. Despite the best efforts of the project. Planning Minister Nick Boles, whose championing of the house building While the lack of sector has been relentless, there are widespread public simply too many opponents on the Conservative backbenches to ignore. support has arguably They recently mobilised to force the suppressed the Government to water down its proposals to make it easier Government’s appetite for homeowners to build for localism, its quest extensions following for economic growth a very public row within DCLG. has also been a source of local and regional tension, as have the Coalition parties’ disparate attitudes on planning reform.

32 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 With the DCLG budget due to be of homes built in England reduced by a further 10% and support each year, Labour will look for its localism agenda waning, it is to keep planning reform LOCALISM looking more and more likely that its at the top of the agenda, focus will turn to the implementation so this could still be a key of existing reforms rather than any big battleground in 2015. new initiatives. If so, that will do nothing to ease external pressure on the Government to come up with a bold plan to increase the amount of new homes. Following their promises to double the number JOBS & WELFARE

Achieved More to Do

Introduction of the The Work Programme Passing of the the £1bn Youth Contract had a poor start, with Pensions Bill, radically unemployment initial figures failing overhauling the initiative to hit Government pensions system targets — although including the More apprenticeships recent figures show introduction of a improvement sing-tier pension and Cap on household changes to the pension benefits of £26,000 Youth unemployment age remains high despite an Pension auto- overall good story on Universal Credit enrolment (600,000 jobs implementation estimated new savers)

34 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 Ed Leech | Senior Account Executive and JOBS & WELFARE Michael Hawes | Senior Account Manager

The Unexpected Dangers

Appeal Court ruling Youth unemployment Coalition division – that the Government remains a huge Liberal Democrats, had acted unlawfully problem across Europe. led by Chief Secretary in forcing a university The Government , reject graduate to work will continue to face further reductions to for her benefits at significant pressure to the welfare budget Poundland tackle the problem while Conservative Chancellor George Project difficulties with Universal Credit Osborne supports new Universal Credit implementation cuts providing more headaches Welfare reform raising the State Pension age from 66 to 67 gradually between 2026 remains a dominant and 2028. Further, the Chancellor political issue, with announced at the Autumn Statement the Conservatives in that this rise will continue so that the retirement age is 69 by the late particular keen to make 2040s. The Government is seeking to it a dividing issue at the use the reforms to demonstrate that the Coalition is taking difficult and 2015 Election. long-term decisions. Alive to this tactic, In an interview to mark the start of the Labour have begun to New Year, David Cameron promised to raise the state pension by a minimum talk tough on welfare of 2.5 per cent per year, or more if with Ed Miliband either earnings or inflation are higher. This puts pressure on Labour and the committing Labour to a Lib Dems to do the same. cap on welfare spending. In terms of job growth, Official figures Secretary of State released in January 2014 showed that has placed a lot of emphasis on his the UK unemployment rate had fallen Universal Credit scheme removing to its lowest level since the autumn complexity and perverse incentives of 2009 with the number of people from the welfare system, but delivery out of work falling to 2.32 million, has proven hugely problematic: a figure used by the Prime Minister the Government has been forced and Chancellor to claim that their to admit that the 2017 deadline for economic plan is working. implementation is now unachievable. However, given the importance of Arguably the Government’s biggest the project to welfare reform, the challenge to date centred on an Government will hope to demonstrate Appeal Court ruling that its flagship significant progress ahead of the 2015 back-to-work scheme was unlawful election. – the decision was sparked by a university graduate taking legal On pensions, the Government action after being forced to work for introduced its flagship Pensions Bill to free at Poundland. The result was an Parliament in May and the legislation embarrassing Government u-turn. has now reached its Lords stages. The radical changes include the Meanwhile, the Work Programme got introduction of a flat rate (single-tier) off to a poor start, missing targets and State Pension from April 2016 and facing accusations that it is failing to

36 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 help those most in need. Initial figures showed that just 3.5 JOBS AND per cent of those on the scheme WELFARE stayed in work for six months or more. However, more recent figures highlight an improving performance in the programme with 208,000 people having found lasting employment (normally at least 6 months) by September 2013. In comparison, by September 2012, just under 55,000 people had found lasting work. However, questions remain as to the viability of the programme and the contracts offered. Critics point to the decision by Deloitte to sell its stake in the programme as evidence that the Government has failed to create a viable market in the welfare to work industry. The political investment will last a little while longer. CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM

Achieved More to Do

Succession to the Avoiding Scottish Crown Bill independence

No ‘Devo plus’ in Scottish independence referendum

38 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM Jessica Smith | Account Executive

The Unexpected Dangers

MP pay rise Northern recommendations political settlement undermined by ongoing negotiations

Scottish independence The Coalition’s track vote. will hope that a substantial but insufficient vote for record on constitutional independence gives him a mandate matters is one of to negotiate more devolved powers. frustrated Lib Dem If David Cameron avoids being the Prime Minister who lost the Union, he ambitions and very may well hand over those functions to limited change. Holyrood with a sense of relief.

Some of the major cracks in the There has been some progress on Coalition Agreement have been over devolution elsewhere in the UK. Conservative unwillingness or inability Following the first report from the to push through changes in the voting Silk Commission on Welsh devolution, system or deliver reform of the House Nick Clegg and David Cameron of Lords, with Conservative ambitions pledged to provide for a referendum for boundary reform scotched as on devolving income tax-varying a result. The Coalition has had powers to the National Assembly. The some small successes, such as the Government accepted in whole or Succession to the Crown Bill receiving part many of the Silk Commission’s 33 Royal Assent in April, although recommendations – notably a series even this was not as easy a win as of measures to enable the Welsh predicted. government to invest in transport infrastructure and devolved Landfill However, an even bigger challenge Tax and Stamp Duty Land Tax. The remains on the horizon in the Commission will report on the non- shape of the Scottish independence financial aspects of devolution this referendum. year.

The Government was forced into the Power-sharing in Northern Ireland referendum by the SNP’s popularity, has existed in a reasonably steady although it has ensured that Scots state over the course of 2010-2015. will face a straight yes/no vote with There is a risk this may not remain no ‘Devo plus’ option. The risk of the case after months of talk led by that vote going against Westminster former US diplomat Richard Haass is limited, with polling consistently around the most divisive issues that indicating the Scottish people are have hampered the peace process fell unconvinced by the independence through at the beginning of the year. case. Westminster Ministers can only look to steer that situation to a non-dramatic There is of course some distance next phase. to go, and what remains unclear is what will happen in the event of a no

40 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014

CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM EQUALITIES

Achieved More to Do

Marriage (Same Sex Trained 5,000 women Introduction of the Couples) Bill passed mentors to help women transferable tax through the Commons to start businesses allowance for married couples Abolished automatic Announced package retirement at 65 of policies aimed at helping working Deletion of historic parents, including convictions for shared maternity/ homosexual acts - and paternity leave and a pardon for Alan changes to child benefit Turing

42 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 EQUALITIES Susanna Rushton | Account Manager

Stalled / Dropped The Unexpected Dangers

Implemented the Huge amount of Policies fail to have Davies Report Parliamentary and significant cut-through recommendations for leadership time before May 2015. the appointment of consumed by Marriage more women to boards (Same Sex Couples) Bill Another “calm down – but results mixed dear”: unintentional Coalition infighting over slips are more Forcing businesses to childcare ratios memorable than policy. disclose their male / female pay gap. Excessive focus on male/female equalities - Plans to reduce nursery ignoring race, disability, staff-to-child ratios and other issues While the equalities brief a political cost, alienating some more traditional voters, who look at the is often perceived to be policy as reason to lose faith in the one of the lowest-profile Conservatives and flee to UKIP or at across Government – least waver in their support for the Tories. frequently assigned Indeed, the bill providing for marriage either to a junior equality only survived the Commons minister, or lumped in thanks to Labour, triggering a with another portfolio massive Tory rebellion in the process. The fallout was made no easier by – as far as the Coalition the highly damaging leak in which is concerned, equalities someone close to the leadership allegedly described party members have provided some of opposed to gay marriage and Tory the most testing issues policy on Europe as “swivel-eyed they’ve faced. loons”. Further Government infighting Marriage equality has long been Mr eventually killed off proposed changes Cameron’s personal project, and to childcare ratios, although this issue while it is undoubtedly something set Coalition partners against each he believes in, there is an element of other, rather than dividing the Tories his quest which is about deliberately internally. breaking with orthodoxy to show a new sort of Tory leader to the electorate. That has though come at

44 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 Perceptions of equality and inequality 2011. These ‘Flashman’ can of course depend on who is moments of seeming affected, and there are moments boorishness from the EQUALITIES where values which may be considered Prime Minister and some traditionally Conservative, rather than colleagues have led to a liberal, are at stake. For example recent perceived problem with child benefit changes may penalise women voters that Tory single-earner families, in favour of strategy has attempted those where both parents are working. to address with policy in Likewise, new childcare subsidies will various areas. only apply to households where both parents are employed, while shared Image can though be parental leave policies are set to help more powerful than policy. families split the burden of caring for Despite well-meaning a baby. Although such reforms may be reforms, it is too easy for critics to justified by some on grounds of value say that a largely white, heterosexual, for money and equity, detractors claim privately-educated, male Cabinet the Tories are wrongfully deserting the signifies (however unfairly) that the ‘traditional family’. The introduction of Coalition is not practising what it the transferable tax allowance will go preaches. some way towards rebalancing this. During the early days of the Coalition, Cameron was dogged by accusations that he had a ‘problem with women’, partially thanks to his infamous ‘calm down dear’ put-down of Maria Eagle during a Commons debate in MEDIA

Achieved More to Do Stalled / Dropped

Leveson Inquiry and Leveson Communications Bill Report implementation Defamation Bill Intellectual Property Bill

Draft Consumers Rights Bill

46 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 MEDIA Lara Newman | Senior Account Executive

The Unexpected Dangers

Leveson Rebekah Brooks / investigations News International Trial and decision Phone hacking DCMS Select Enquiry Future of DCMS as a Department The Coalition’s media policy has, work with the internet industry to for a very substantial part of the address some of the bigger issues Parliament, been dominated by the around harmful content, but has not Leveson Inquiry. The process was made any real inroads to a converged conceived as a necessary response to media policy, and the Communications public revulsion over phone hacking, strategy document ‘Connectivity, but the implications may have been Content and Consumers’, published more far-reaching than many ministers in July, remained rooted in traditional expected or wished. Having navigated broadcast thinking. Ministers the hearings without sustaining any subsequently postponed a decision on serious damage, Mr Cameron and switchover to digital radio, although his ministers were left with a set of the Department published an action recommendations they found almost plan in December which is designed to impossible to implement. After a very point the way to a digital future. convoluted process, the Government has limped to a solution of sorts – the In truth, while newspapers have a new watchdog, Governments across although outside of the Royal Charter framework, but it remains to be tested Europe have been in any meaningful way and certainly studying the regulatory falls short of the wishes of the Hacked Off campaign. impact of convergence for some time, it still This has not proven a happy experience for the Department of feels premature to take Culture, Media ans Sport, where a truly radical look at Secretary of State has remained under pressure. how we regulate and With the Treasury and BIS circling support the media in for policy responsibility over the a converged digital communications portfolio the Department’s future is by no means age. It is likely to fall to secure. ministers in government Across the rest of the portfolio, Mrs after the next election to Miller and her minister have take on this project. backed away from promises for a new Communications Bill, expectations The present incumbents’ attention for which were raised significantly will now turn instead to the early by former Secretary of State Jeremy stages of the BBC Charter Review. The Hunt. The Government has tried to Corporation’s troubles over the year,

48 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 including mishandling of the Savile the failure of a bid to bar private affair, huge payoffs for departing staff, companies contracted to and the leadership vacuum introduced run schools, prisons or by the resignation of Director General healthcare from suing George Entwistle have made the case ordinary citizens. While MEDIA for reform and better governance more not all directly relevant convincingly than any attack from to the media industry, government. the new law does include landmark new It is not, however, all doom and gloom: protection for individuals in April 2013, libel reform campaigners and organisations, expressed delight that defamation including newspapers and reform was finally passing into law, broadcasters, which criticise although they were disappointed by big companies. EDUCATION

Achieved More to Do Stalled / Dropped

Reform of higher Diversify the HE sector Abolition of GCSEs education funding Embed the free school Growth of academies sector and free schools Reforms to National Continue to bear down Curriculum on grade inflation and reform qualifications Performance-related pay for teachers

50 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 EDUCATION Charles Reith | Researcher

The Unexpected Dangers

Argument over Mr Men Further high profile free teaching methods and school problems the causes of the First World War Student numbers start to fall due to high costs Failure of Al-Madinah of studying school in Derby has conditions, and went on strike in October. The Government response proven one of the was not to blink, and ministers may most high-profile – and see union opposition as a sign of controversial – Education ambitious reform. Others in the public eye – including children’s author Secretaries in decades. Michael Rosen – took up a cultural fight with Mr Gove, objecting to his His zeal for reform has been matched view of the purpose and practice of by a combative attitude, willingness education. Again, this was not a fight to ridicule opponents and confidence the Secretary of State backed down in taking intellectual or ideological from, and he remains committed positions. This is no doubt partly to promoting knowledge through down to personal style but also a the curriculum and taking on the genuine wish to be as ambitious and shibboleths of the left. far reaching as is possible in one Parliament. The Liberal Democrat influence on education policy remained hard to In May 2013 Mr Gove approved a discern – Nick Clegg’s announcement further 102 applications to open Free of free school meals for all Schools, and 2014 should see more schoolchildren under six was really than 130,000 children attending the a welfare announcement and one new schools, catering to mainstream and special education and often in areas of deprivation. Inevitably in a very heterogenous mix, some of the schools already open have fared better than others. In November, following an investigation, ministers stepped in to prevent further misconduct at the Al-Madinah school in Derby. Academies were less in the headlines but continued to proliferate, with over 50% of secondary schools now converted. Mr Gove’s detractors continued to be outspoken (although new Shadow spokesman Tristram Hunt is gently supportive of many of the reforms). Teaching unions inevitably campaigned about their pay and

52 | Portland Annual Policy Review 2014 rather at odds with the broad thrust of Minister , government policy. Coalition tensions and nowhere have market have though occasionally bubbled reforms to education gone EDUCATION up: after a seemingly indisciplined further. coalition argument over the initial announcement that GCSEs would be For the public to be abolished, the Government quietly convinced of this case, confirmed the name would stay. standards across all education sectors need Higher and Further Education saw a to start rising soon. quieter year in terms of policy. Numbers applying for university rose slightly, although they are still below the numbers applying before changes in the fees regime and there is the risk they may fall again. Universities Minister ’s focus is on diversifying the sector, bringing in new entrants and encouraging more for students. The same strategy is being employed by Skills

1 Red Lion Court. London, EC4A 3EB +44 (0) 20 7842 0123 [email protected] www.portland-communications.com @PortlandComms