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WHAT HAPPENED in LONDON? a General Election Results Day Briefing

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WHAT HAPPENED in LONDON? a General Election Results Day Briefing WHAT HAPPENED IN LONDON? A General Election Results Day Briefing 9 JUNE 2017 LDN | LDN GENERAL ELECTION SPECIAL INSIDE LDN | 2 LABOUR CONFOUND EXPECTATIONS Theresa May’s snap election gamble has backfired spectacularly. Just four weeks ago the Conservatives had a 20 point lead in the polls and were on course to gain a majority of close to 100. But after a campaign mired in criticism High profile party figures who had and controversy the party lost 12 seats openly criticised Corbyn in the past have and the ability to form a government been quick to rally round and offer their without the help of other parties. As of congratulations. Without doubt this result Friday afternoon May seems to have was a huge surprise, and in the same made an agreement with the Democrat realm as the 2015 General Election result, Unionist Party but the situation is far the Brexit vote and the Trump victory. In from clear and there is every chance last week’s pre-election briefing we did that we will have another election in hint at the small possibility of a hung the near future, and very possibly a parliament following the YouGov poll Conservative leadership challenge too. that showed the parties neck and neck, Meanwhile, Corbyn looks very safe as but we can’t claim to have actually Labour leader, who would have thought expected this outcome and the results we would be saying that just a few in London show yet another surge to weeks ago? Labour exceeded most if not Labour – strengthening an already all expectations. The Corbyn campaign Labour dominated city. This results gathered momentum in the last three day briefing sets out the initial national weeks and undoubtedly energised picture and focuses in on the headline a huge section of the electorate and stories in London. We have also prepared younger voters in particular (72% the new London political map. As we of 18-24 year olds voted according learn more over the next few days The New Political Map of the UK. Source: BBC to unconfirmed early reports on an we will include further analysis in our See page 4 for full numerical breakdown average turnout of 68.7%). regular LDN – London in short so do look out for it in your inboxes. London Communications Agency LDN | LDN GENERAL ELECTION SPECIAL INSIDE LDN | 3 THE RETURN OF TWO PARTY POLITICS For now, we have another hung parliament and a very confused electoral picture across the UK. However there is undoubtedly a marked return to two party politics; the combined Conservative-Labour vote share was over 82%; more than any election since 1970 and a clear indication of the deep polarisation across the country and a squeeze of the smaller parties. The Conservatives polled 43%, up 6% Jane Ellison and Croydon Central’s Labour broke the 40% vote share mark on Cameron’s 2015 performance, but Gavin Barwell. The one bright spot in for the first time since 2001 and made the campaign’s focus on gaining seats a very dark night for the Tories was in gains across all parts of England, in the north and the west midlands Scotland where they gained 10 seats particularly in student dominated clearly didn’t pay off. In fact several and took out SNP big beasts Alex towns and cities, Wales and, perhaps commentators, notably George Osborne, Salmond and Angus Robertson. The most surprisingly, Scotland. This was have noted that the party wrongly Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson markedly different from the bad results ignored its core southern seats, several is undoubtedly one of the stars of the for Labour in council elections just five of which ended up going to Labour. election, positioning the fight north weeks ago in all these regions. For the The Tories also presumed it would pick of the border squarely as a vote on Liberal Democrats the results were up the lion’s share of the electorate holding a second referendum. For disappointing. They did win back in Vote Leave areas from voters who Labour, Corbyn confounded his critics four seats in Scotland and have re- had previously assigned their support and wasn’t the electoral liability that established their foot hold in South West to UKIP. In fact, Labour did well from many within his own party thought. London (see page 8) but didn’t return the collapse of the anti-EU party. And The party’s detailed manifesto and any MPs in South West England bar whilst no big Tory names lost their commitment to investment in public Bath, a strongly Remain constituency, seats (although Home Secretary Amber services very clearly resonated and and witnessed their former leader Nick Rudd only survived by 346 votes), six usurped the very thin ‘strong and Clegg defeated in Sheffield Hallam. The Conservative ministers were defeated, stable’ narrative from May. His ‘humble Lib Dem’s actual vote share declined by notably Ben Gummer, the main author and human’ touch also compared 0.5% demonstrating that the party’s road of the party’s much-derided election favourably to perceptions of the PM to recovery is still to be built. manifesto, and in London Battersea’s as cold and distant. London Communications Agency LDN | LDN GENERAL ELECTION SPECIAL INSIDE LDN | 4 The failure of the Lib Dems means that the SNP remain Britain’s third largest VOTE party despite a loss of 21 seats, shared SEATS +/- SHARE % +/- % between the Lib Dems, Labour and the Conservative 318 -13 42.4 +5.5 Conservatives. They remain the biggest Labour 262 +30 40.0 +9.5 party in Scotland with 34 constituencies SNP 35 -21 3.0 -1.7 but a second referendum now seems Lib Dem 12 +4 7.4 -0.5 like a long way off. The result does of Dem Unionist 10 +2 0.9 +0.3 course mean that everyone is suddenly Sinn Fein 7 +3 0.7 +0.2 interested in the DUP who now prop Plaid Cymru 4 +1 0.5 -0.1 up the new Conservative Government. Green 1 0 1.6 -2.1 Reportedly, the pro-Leave party’s UKIP 0 -1 1.8 -10.8 primary point of negotiation is that Social Democratic & Labour 0 -3 0.3 0.0 there be ‘no special deal’ for Northern Ulster Unionist 0 -2 0.3 -0.1 Ireland as part of the Brexit deal – they Alliance Party 0 0 0.2 0.0 want out with no extra concessions. The Yorkshire 0 0 0.1 0.0 One final note. In 1997 Blair’s New National Health Action 0 0 0.1 0.0 Labour polled 43% of the national vote 0 0 0.0 0.0 and won 419 seats and a landslide Christian Peoples Alliance victory. In 2017 Theresa May polled BNP 0 0 0.0 0.0 the same share of vote and won 100 Monster Raving Loony 0 0 0.0 0.0 less. The failure to sort out a boundary Women's Equality 0 0 0.0 0.0 change deal during the coalition years Pirate 0 0 0.0 0.0 with the Lib Dems has been part of the English Democrats 0 0 0.0 0.0 reason for this result. Workers Revolutionary 0 0 0.0 0.0 Social Democratic 0 0 0.0 0.0 Others 1 0 0.6 +0.3 The full General Election results London Communications Agency LDN | LDN GENERAL ELECTION SPECIAL INSIDE LDN | 5 THE NEW PARLIAMENTARY MAP OF LONDON LABOUR ...........................49 (+4) L CONSERVATIVE ..............21 (-5) LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ....3 (+1) C A EDMONTON L A C A A HENDON L ROMFORD L CL A L ALA A L AA L AC CC L AC AA CAL C L L L L A AL ACA A AL AA AA A A LA L AL CAL AC C L AL ALL A AA KENSINGTON L A C LC A AL L CLA AALL CALL LA AA CA LA LA CA DEPTFORD LA AA PUTNEY LC NORWOOD LA LA A L L C C A TOOTING LA CA L L CL C CA CA CA CAAL C CAL ALL ORPINGTON C LAB gain from CON CON gain from LD LD gain from CON London Communications Agency LDN | LDN GENERAL ELECTION SPECIAL INSIDE LDN | 6 HOW DID THE PARTIES PERFORM IN THE CAPITAL? Throughout our pre-election analysis, our speculation was focused on three questions. 1 We always knew that making have a majority of just one seat, very 1 significant gains in the capital was a worried indeed about next year’s local CAN THE tough ask for the Tories; over the last 10-15 election. There are similar patterns across CONSERVATIVES years their vote share here has plateaued the capital with swings to Labour of BECOME THE around 35% (except for when Boris was around 10% or more in the Conservative LARGEST PARTY IN LONDON? involved). London’s leftie tendencies plus seats of Putney, Uxbridge and even its concentration of Remain voters has Chelsea and Fulham. The loss of Battersea made it an awkward customer for Theresa and its 8,000 seat majority will sting. There May’s party. They lost six seats – Battersea, is little doubt that Labour winner Marsha Croydon Central, Enfield Southgate de Cordova, a Lambeth councillor, 2 CAN LABOUR and most surprisingly Kensington to benefited from her rival’s decision to vote CONTINUE Labour, Kingston and Twickenham to to trigger Article 50 despite representing TO BUCK THE the Lib Dems – but gained one with Zac a 75% Remain constituency, up-ending NATIONAL Goldsmith just managing to get his old the general consensus that gentrification TREND IN THE seat back from Lib Dem Sarah Olney of this seat in the last 10 years had made CAPITAL? in Richmond Park.
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