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Home , Alun Cairns, Ed Davey

12 December 2019

General election 2019: what to watch out for on the night

Introduction The 2019 General Election campaign has been full of twists and turns. With more plot developments and moments of high drama expected late into the night, here is our guide on what to watch out for through the evening and into the morning.

Headland briefing | General election 2019: what to watch out for on the night | 01 10pm: Exit poll published The first big moment of the night has been parliament, in 2015 it accurately projected a met with gasps of surprise in recent years. Conservative majority and in 2017 predicted The exit poll data is released as soon as the the Conservatives would lose that majority. polls close. In previous elections this decade it Expect party spokespeople to be wheeled has accurately predicted the overall outcome out to welcome or reject the poll depending of the election. In 2010 it predicted a hung on how it predicts their fortunes. 11pm: The first results The first results will begin to trickle in, starting to counters. These early results will be skewed with Newcastle and Sunderland who battle towards Labour but keep an eye on a possible it out to be the first to declare at each strong Conservative showing as an indicator election. Expect to see TV shots of school of how the party will perform throughout the kids up way past their bedtime doing shuttle night. sprints carrying ballot boxes back and forth 1am-3am: The fall of the ‘Red Wall’? The second big moment of the night. There push for a majority will be successful. The key has been much talk throughout the campaign fact here is that the ‘Red Wall’ is rather large, of the ‘Red Wall’ of Labour constituencies that so it won’t take too many seats to turn blue to cover the Midlands and the North of England. help secure an overall Conservative victory. As Many of these are heavily Leave-voting seats, Headland shared in our pre-election insights, raising the prospect of Conservative gains keep an eye on seats such as Stockton South, for, what in some cases, will be the first time in Bishop Auckland and the iconic Sedgefield, decades. Success in these Labour heartlands former home of , where Labour loses could determine whether the Conservative are a real possibility. 3am-5am: The trickle becomes a torrent We are now at the business end of the night. Labour is in a battle for survival. Headland Results will come in thick and fast and the is predicting both Glasgow North East and picture across the country will become much Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath to fall to the SNP, clearer. Headland’s advice is to keep an eye while it will hold on to East Lothian. Labour on Crewe & Nantwich, Warrington South and isn’t the only party with worries in Scotland. Keighley. But don’t forget Scotland and Wales. Liberal Democrat Leader will Scotland is key to Conservative hopes. With have an uncomfortable night defending commentators having expected the SNP to her East Dunbartonshire seat from an SNP take total control of almost all seats north surge. Wales isn’t without its own drama with of Hadrian’s Wall, recent polling suggests seats like Wrexham heavily targeted by the that the Conservatives look set to hold many Conservatives and tipped by Headland to of their 13 seats. At the same time, Scottish switch from red to blue. 5am-6am: The picture should be clear By this point enough seats will have south-east commuter belt so those hoping to been declared to indicate whether the see a Conservative majority slip away as the Conservatives have won an outright majority sun breaks will want to be up for this moment. or if we are heading towards another hung Liberal Democrat prospects hinge on parliament. However, some key seats will consolidating the Remain vote and winning declare relatively late, including strong back seats such as Cheltenham. Remain seats in central and the

Headland briefing | General election 2019: what to watch out for on the night | 02 6am onwards: The stragglers With almost all results now declared there and Richmond Park are expected late, as are are just a few seats remaining providing the Hendon and Truro and Falmouth. Keep an eye possibility of one final plot twist. Key Liberal out for losing his seat…again. Democrat targets including Wells and St Ives ‘Big Beast watch’ For those of you looking out for this year’s ‘Portillo’ moment, below are some big beasts occupying marginal seats who may well be felled at this election.

CONSERVATIVES LIB DEM • , . • , Westmorland & Lonsdale. Expected declaration: 2am Expected declaration: 3.30am • Ian Duncan Smith, Chingford. • Sir , Kingston & . Expected declaration: 3am Expected declaration: 3.30am • , Esher & Walton. Expected declaration: 3am • , Swindon South. SNP Expected declaration: 4am • Joanna Cherry, Edinburgh South West. • , Rossendale & Darwen. Expected declaration: 5am Expected declaration: 4am • Mhairi Black, Paisley and Renfrewshire • , Chipping Barnet. South. Expected declaration: 2.30am Expected declaration: 5.30am • Zac Goldsmith, Richmond Park. Expected declaration: 6am DUP • , Belfast North. Expected declaration: 3am LABOUR • Sue Hayman, Workington. Expected declaration: 1am • Leslie Laird, Kircaldy & Cowdenbeath. Expected declaration: 3am • Dennis Skinner, Bolsover. Expected declaration: 5am

Headland briefing | General election 2019: what to watch out for on the night | 03