SURVEY of CURRENT BUSINESS June 1941 Monthly Business Indicators, 1936-41 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INCOME PAYMENTS * 160 (VOLUME, 1935-39 = 100) 1 10(1929 • L(30)
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JUNE 1941 SURVEY OF RE S UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE VOLUME 21 NUMBER 6 The Code ©I Federal Regulations The National Archives of the United States Division ol the Federal Regisfei «ol« by the Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D. C. The Code of Federal Regulations, recently pub- lished by fhe Division of the Federal Register, ccniair^ all Ihi regulailons of genera) applicabiiii}r end legal ciiec?, as of June 1, 1938, promulgated by ovc-r 103 admirjsirative agencies ci the United States Government, The Code consists of 50 titles (analogous to the titles of ike United States Code) and a general index. It is bound in 15 volumes containing 17 books and is arranged in a systematic manner by chapters and parts to facilitate seaich and reference, Each volume sells for $2.25 excepting Volumes 7 and 14, which consist of two books each and are sold for $4i>0 a set. For further information, address: Major B. R. Kennedy, Director, Division of the Federal Register. UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE JESSE H. JONES, Secretary BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE CARROLL L. WILSON, Director SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS DIVISION OF RESEARCH AND STATISTICS CHARLES A. R. WARDWELL, Chief, Current Business Analysis Unit JOHN D. WILSON, In Charge, Survey of Current Business Volume 21 JUNE 1941 Number 6 CONTENTS Page Page The business situation 3 Figure 5.—Indexes of wholesale prices, January 2, 1937-May 24, Steel placed under limited priority status 4 1941 6 Consumption at record level 5 Figure 6.—Total freight-car loadings and loadings of the miscellane- Agricultural programs increase prices 6 ous and coal classes, January 7, 1939, through May 24, 1941 8 Growth in machine tool output. 8 Figure 7.—Estimated monthly production of the machine-tool Rubber affected by import uncertainty 9 industry and United States exports of machine tools, 1936-41.... 9 Figure 8.—Rubber consumption and st cks, 1939-41 10 SPECIAL ARTICLE Figure 9.—National income in current and 1935-39 dollars, and per capita income in 1935-39 dollars, 1919-40 12 National income exceeds 76 billion dollars in 1940 11 Figure 10.—Indexes of national income in constant dollars and industrial production, 1919-40 13 CHARTS Figure 11.—Percentage increase, 1940 from 1939, in national income by industrial divisions 13 Figure 1.—Monthly business indicators, 1936-41 2 Figure 12.—National income by major sources, 1929-40 14 Figure 2.—Percentage increase March 1941 from March 1939, in the y- production of selected commodities. 3 STATISTICAL DATA Figure 3.—Value of unfilled orders of blast furnaces, steel works, and f rolling mills, 1939-41 4 Figure 4.—Indexes of consumers' expenditures for durable and Monthly business statistics 19 nondurable commodities, adjusted for seasonal variations, 1939-41 5 General index Inside back cover Subscription price of the monthly and weekly issues of the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS $2 a year. Single-copy price: Monthly, 15 cents; weekly, 5 cents. Foreign subscriptions, $3.50. Price of the 1940 Supplement is 40 centa. Make remittances only to Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D. C, 31 9333—41 1 1 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS June 1941 Monthly Business Indicators, 1936-41 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INCOME PAYMENTS * 160 (VOLUME, 1935-39 = 100) 1 10(1929 • l(30) 140 I 120 J 90 V ^\ 100 / r\ J 80 h \y 80 .MMIMM. \ ,M.«I 70 II 1 1 1 1 I1I I I!|| 1 1 1 MiMini,.,,l . Ml.lll.ill 1936 .1 193,. ll.M7U 1938 1939 1940 1941 1936 I937 I938 I939 I940 I94I FACTORY EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS CASH INCOME FROM FARM MARKETINGS" 140 100 (.1924-2 9 = 100) 90 V 80 / UAj\ 80 70 \i 60 60 i ii M 111111 i in i!i. i M 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 DEPARTMENT STORE SALES CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED' (1923-25 = 100) (VALUE, 1923-25 = 100 no 3-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE) 1 100 /" i hJ 90 A/ / \ / 80 / ,,,,,, 70 , lmii IMIllllMl 1 1 M \ \ \\ i 1 1 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 WHOLESALE PRICES PRICES OF 350 INDUSTRIAL STOCKS 100 (1926= l(30) IbO (1926=100) IA 1 90 140 A J \ A J 80 120 A/ \ 1 v \ A 1 70 inn \ V, 60 1 1 1 I II 1 I 1111111M11 ! 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 MMl1 II 1l 1 1 1 1 1 I 1I 11 I1I 11 f 11 1 1 1 1 80 ) 1111111111 MM linn nml. MM 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 11 1 I t1 1 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 * ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATIONS * EXCLUSIVE OF GOVERNMENTAL PAYMENTS Figure 1. June 1941 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS The Business Situation NDUSTRIAL output recovered very sharply in May dollars had been recommended by the President in his I from its temporary setback of the previous month. budget message of January, but by May 17 these had Further advances in defense industries, coupled with risen to 37.9 billion dollars and an additional 6 billion resumption of heavy output in coal, steel, and auto- was before Congress. To this should be added British mobiles, pushed production into new high ground. orders of 3.7 billion dollars. By May 1, the Army, Freight carloadings moved above last year's peak to Navy, and other defense agencies had awarded contracts the highest total since 1930, while output of electric totaling 15.2 billion dollars and the Treasury had dis- power was the largest on record. On other business bursed 5.1 billion. These great sums are required for fronts reports revealed additional impetus as the de- the variety of purposes summarized in table 1. fense program accelerated. Continued strength of In the first year the rate of defense cash expenditure residential and industrial plant demand offset further jumped from 153 million dollars in June to 837 million declines in cantonment building to maintain aggregate in May. This initial stage has been aptly termed a new construction. Trade volumes were high, even in "tooling-up" period—a period which is not yet com- relation to the current flow of income as consumers PERCENTAGE INCREASE pressed to satisfy their needs—particularly of durable + 140 commodities, the output of which will be curtailed as MOLDING COMPOSITION, CELLULOSE ACETATE the defense requirements make an imperative claim upon scarce resources. On May 27, one day short of the first anniversar}^ of the defense program, the President proclaimed "that an unlimited national emergency confronts this coun- MACHINERY try, which requires that its military, naval, air, and STEEL INGOTS civilian defenses be put on the basis of readiness to PIC IRON DENATURED ALCOHOL OIL BURNERS (SHIPMENTS) repel any and all acts or threats of aggression directed ELECTRIC REFRIGERATORS. DOMESTIC; HOUSEHOLD (SHIPMENTS) 1 toward any part of the Western Hemisphere." By SULPHITE PULP WOOLEN AND WORSTED CLOTH this proclamation the President automatically assumed AUTOMOBILES COTTON CONSUMPTION additional vast powers of control over the economy of ZINC. SLAB (AT PRIMARY SMELTERS) •COPPER. MINE OR SMELTER the United States, these to be exercised as necessity SULPHURIC ACID GLOVES AND MITTENS, LEATHER (CUT) 1 .WHISKEY FURNITURE decrees. LUMBER GLASS CONTAINERS PAPERBOARD TIRES AND TUBES LEAD, REFINED (PRODUCTION FROM Table 1.—National Defense Appropriations and Cash DOMESTIC ORE) Expenditures GELATIN, EDIBLE STNB DRIED uuc GASOLINE BEEF Cash ex- BUTTER Appropria- SHOES, LEATHER | tion and con- penditure CRUDE PETROLEUM June 1, WHEAT FLOUR I tract author- 1940- | ization (as of May 1, I May 17) 1941 .20 MARCH 1939 MARCH 1941 Billions of dollars Figure 2.—Percentage Increase, March 1941 from March 1939, in the Pro- duction of Selected Commodities. Airplanes and accessories 6.5 0.6 Ordnance 7.4 . 5 NOTE.—Computed from data published in the Survey of Current Business and in Ships, motor and rail equipment .6 the Federal Reserve Bulletin. New industrial facilities 3^8 .3 Military posts, depots, fortifications and defense housings. 3.4 1. 1 Other Army and Navy equipment 1.8 1.1 Miscellaneous (pay, food, reserve materials, etc.) 6.0 .9 plete. For of the more than 1,600 plants under con- Total 37.9 struction by May, a relatively small number had been finished. Many more have yet to be started under A large measure of required control had previously appropriations now existing, and the program daily been undertaken. During the past year the Nation's expands. Nevertheless, along with new building there economy has been gradually reoriented toward the now is beginning to appear a growing stream of finished provision of a larger Army and Navy and the material war material. Henceforth, an increasing proportion of they and the British require. For this purpose, a expenditure will represent such supplies. steadily expanding program has been laid out. Appro- That the influence of this already huge defense outlay priations and authorizations amounting to 28.5 billion has permeated every sector of the economy is a common- place. Income, production, consumption—all are in i For a summary of the President's emergency powers consult the Congressional Record, vol. 87, No. 100 (May 28, 1941), pp. 4605-4611. record volume. As pointed out in the article on page 11, SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS June 1941 national income this month is estimated to have reached backlogs, over a short period is not unusual. However, an annual rate of 85 billion dollars, and by far the it is noteworthy that absolute gains in recent months largest part of the current increase is originating in reveal little tendency to decline.