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The Worldview of US Intelligence Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports 2008 Cognitions of the community: The worldview of U.S. intelligence David Alex Mastro II West Virginia University Follow this and additional works at: https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/etd Recommended Citation Mastro, David Alex II, "Cognitions of the community: The worldview of U.S. intelligence" (2008). Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports. 4403. https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/etd/4403 This Dissertation is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by the The Research Repository @ WVU with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Dissertation in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you must obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/ or on the work itself. This Dissertation has been accepted for inclusion in WVU Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports collection by an authorized administrator of The Research Repository @ WVU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Cognitions of the Community: The Worldview of U.S. Intelligence David Alex Mastro II Dissertation submitted to the Eberly College of Arts and Sciences at West Virginia University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science R. Scott Crichlow, Ph.D, Chair Kenneth R. Dombroski, Ph.D Robert D. Duval, Ph.D Joe D. Hagan, Ph.D Susan Hunter, Ph.D Department of Political Science Morgantown, West Virginia 2008 Keywords: Political Psychology, Social Constructivism, U.S. Intelligence, World Politics Copyright 2008, David Alex Mastro II ABSTRACT Cognitions of the Community: The Worldview of U.S. Intelligence David Alex Mastro II This dissertation attempts to determine what the worldview of U.S. intelligence looks like so that it can be incorporated into America’s intelligence identity. I argue that this is necessary to gain a better understanding of why the agencies that comprise the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) share several behaviors despite having different interests and preferences. To answer my research question, which asks what the worldview of U.S. intelligence is, I conceptualize the IC’s core belief system about world politics (its worldview) as the five philosophical beliefs in an operational code. I hypothesize about how the IC views each of these cognitions in accordance with my theory that the IC’s worldview underlies several U.S. intelligence norms. I also posit that the worldview of U.S. intelligence is specific and longstanding. However, after testing my hypotheses using automated content analysis and statistical methods, I only find strong support for two of my six propositions. The beliefs that comprise the IC’s worldview are well-established and continuous, and U.S. intelligence believes that it has a low degree of control over historical development. My primary conclusion is that the IC’s worldview is a topic that warrants further study given that cognitions underlie all political behavior and form the foundation for how power and interests are understood (Young and Schafer 1998, 84). I also conclude that the ultimate value of this dissertation lies not in what its analysis found, but in the fact that it is first study to empirically analyze the set of core beliefs that U.S. intelligence holds about foreign affairs and global issues among state and non-state actors. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I want to thank my family and friends for supporting me during the time I spent researching and writing this dissertation. I also want to thank the members of my dissertation committee for their guidance, advice, and help in completing this study. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter One: The Politics of U.S. Intelligence............................................................................1 What is Intelligence?............................................................................................................4 The Politics of U.S. Intelligence..........................................................................................5 The Bureaucratic Politics Approach ....................................................................................5 The Social Constructivist Approach ..................................................................................10 The Need to Enrich the U.S. Intelligence Identity with Insights about Cognition ............16 Defining the Worldview of U.S. Intelligence ....................................................................20 Research Question .............................................................................................................22 Chapter Summary and Dissertation Plan ...........................................................................23 Chapter Two: Conceptualizing the Worldview of U.S. Intelligence ......................................26 Foreign Policy Analysis and Political Psychology ............................................................27 Cognitive Mapping ............................................................................................................29 Image Theory.....................................................................................................................30 Leadership Trait Analysis..................................................................................................32 Operational Code Analysis ................................................................................................33 What is the Best Way to Conceptualize the Worldview of U.S. Intelligence?..................35 Chapter Summary ..............................................................................................................39 Chapter Three: Theory and Hypotheses ...................................................................................41 Theory................................................................................................................................42 Hypotheses.........................................................................................................................43 Continuity of the IC’s Worldview .....................................................................................43 The Nature of the Political Universe .................................................................................47 The Prospects for Realizing Fundamental Political Values...............................................50 The Predictability of Others in the Political Universe.......................................................53 Control Over Historical Development...............................................................................56 The Role of Chance ...........................................................................................................59 Chapter Summary ..............................................................................................................60 Chapter Four: Methodology and Data ......................................................................................61 Quantifying the Worldview of U.S. Intelligence...............................................................62 What is the VICS Method?................................................................................................63 Calculating the Philosophical Indices................................................................................66 The Coding Approach: Computer Coding or Hand Coding? ............................................69 Data Source........................................................................................................................72 Sampling Frame.................................................................................................................77 Analyzing the VICS Data ..................................................................................................79 Chapter Summary ..............................................................................................................82 v Chapter Five: Data Analysis.......................................................................................................83 VICS Data on the Philosophical Beliefs in an Operational Code......................................84 ANOVA Results ................................................................................................................86 Discussion..........................................................................................................................88 Chapter Summary ..............................................................................................................91 Chapter Six: General Conclusions: Future Research on the Cognitive Culture of...............92 U.S. Intelligence Future Research Strategies.................................................................................................94 Future Research Implications ............................................................................................98 Chapter Summary and Concluding Remarks...................................................................101 Bibliography ..............................................................................................................................103 Appendix A: Population of Declassified NIEs (1950-2007)....................................................120
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