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Assessing Irregular Warfare: a Framework for Intelligence Analysis THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Arroyo Center View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Assessing Irregular Warfare A Framework for Intelligence Analysis Eric V. Larson, Derek Eaton, Brian Nichiporuk, Thomas S. Szayna Prepared for the United States Army Approved for public release; distribution unlimited ARROYO CENTER The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army under Contract No. DASW01-01-C-0003. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Assessing irregular warfare : a framework for intelligence analysis / Eric V. Larson ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4322-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Military intelligence—United States. 2. Asymmetric warfare. I. Larson, Eric V. (Eric Victor), 1957– UB251.U5A77 2008 355.3'432—dc22 2008004727 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2008 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2008 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This monograph documents the results of a study titled “Planning Intelligence Support to Irregular Warfare.” The aim of the study was to assist the National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) in better understanding the intelligence analytic requirements of irregular war- fare (IW) by providing an analytic framework for IW on which to base an educational and training curriculum that would enhance the capa- bilities NGIC analysts use to assess IW situations. The results described should be of interest to intelligence analysts and managers in the intelligence community who are wrestling with the innumerable conceptual, collection, and analytic challenges presented by contemporary IW environments. Additionally, these results may be of interest to scholarly audiences involved in developing new analytic methodologies and tools that might be employed in IW analysis. This research was sponsored by the NGIC, a major subordinate command of the U.S. Army’s Intelligence and Security Command, and conducted within RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Cor- poration, is a federally funded research and development center spon- sored by the United States Army. For comments or further information about this monograph, please contact Thomas Szayna (telephone 310-393-0411, extension 7758; e-mail [email protected]) or Eric Larson (telephone 310-393-0411, extension 7467; email [email protected]). The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is NGIC-06001. iii iv Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis For more information on RAND Arroyo Center, contact the Director of Operations (telephone 310-393-0411, extension 6419; FAX 310-451- 6952; email [email protected]), or visit Arroyo’s Web site at http://www.rand.org/ard/. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures .............................................................................vii Tables .............................................................................. ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ...............................................................xv Abbreviations ................................................................... xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Background to the Study .......................................................... 1 Study Aims and Analytic Approach ............................................. 3 Organization of This Monograph ................................................ 5 CHAPTER TWO Defining Irregular Warfare ..................................................... 7 A Review of Recent Efforts to Define Irregular Warfare ...................... 8 Irregular Warfare Operation Types .............................................11 Irregular Warfare Common Logical Lines of Operation .....................14 Chapter Conclusions ..............................................................17 CHAPTER THREE A Framework for Assessing Irregular Warfare ............................19 Population-Centric Irregular Warfare Operations ........................... 20 Initial Assessment and Data Gathering ..................................... 22 Detailed Stakeholder Analyses ............................................... 26 Dynamic Analyses ............................................................. 28 v vi Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis Analytic Techniques for Irregular Warfare Analysis ........................29 Counterterrorism Operations ....................................................35 Tactical Counterterrorism Operations ...................................... 38 Operations Against Transnational Terrorist Networks .....................39 Comparison to the Standard IPB Process ..................................... 40 Chapter Conclusions ............................................................. 43 CHAPTER FOUR Conclusions .......................................................................45 APPENDIX A. A Review of Defense Policy, Strategy, and Irregular Warfare ......47 B. Irregular Warfare Analysis Doctrinal References ......................61 References .........................................................................63 Figures S.1. Analytic Framework for IW Analysis ...............................xii 1.1. Analytic Approach for Identifying IW Intelligence and Analytic Requirements ................................................ 4 2.1. Intelligence Requirements for Irregular Warfare Logical Lines of Operation ....................................................16 3.1. IW Assessment Framework ......................................... 23 3.2. Geospatially Oriented Aspects of the Information Domain of the Operating Environment ......................................25 A.1. 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review’s Priorities ....................49 A.2. 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review’s View of Threats ........... 50 A.3. National Strategy for Global War on Terrorism ...................57 A.4. Military Strategic Framework for Greater War on Terrorism ....58 vii Tables 2.1. Irregular Warfare Missions and Activities .........................13 2.2. Irregular Warfare Logical Lines of Operation ....................15 3.1. Crosswalk with Standard IPB Process ............................ 42 ix Summary The aim of this study was to assist the Department of the Army’s National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) in better understanding the intelligence analytic requirements of irregular warfare (IW). To do this, we were to develop an analytic framework for IW that could be used as the basis for an educational and training curriculum that would enhance NGIC analysts’ capabilities for assessing IW situations. In December 2006, after considering a number of alternative def- initions for irregular warfare and acknowledging the many conceptual and other challenges associated with trying to define this term with precision, the Office of the Secretary
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