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Developing Senior Navy Leaders: Requirements for Flag Officer THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE EDUCATION the RAND Corporation. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. 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RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Developing Senior Navy Leaders Requirements for Flag Officer Expertise Today and in the Future Lawrence M. Hanser, Louis W. Miller, Herbert J. Shukiar, Bruce Newsome Prepared for the Chief of Naval Personnel Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE This research was sponsored by the Chief of Naval Personnel (CNP) and conducted within the Forces and Resources Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Developing senior Navy leaders : requirements for flag officer expertise today and in the future / Lawrence M. Hanser ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4294-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. United States. Navy—Officers—Training of. 2. United States. Navy— Personnel management. 3. Admirals—United States. 4. Leadership. I. Hanser, Lawrence M. VB203.D48 2008 359.3'310973—dc22 2008019155 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2008 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2008 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface The array of expertise required to be a successful leader in the U.S. Navy has become more complex. To be a successful Navy leader, it is no longer sufficient to be skilled only at surface, submarine, or air war- fare. Additional kinds of expertise are needed to lead and manage the Navy of today and the Navy of the future. Furthermore, like its sister services, the Navy also has a large and distinct core of senior civilian leaders that continues to provide a broad array of in-depth business skills, as well as the continuity and stability of senior leadership. Navy leaders have become increasingly concerned that senior officers need additional kinds of expertise, besides those traditionally developed in naval officers, to be successful in commanding, leading, and managing the Navy enterprise. In 2002, the Chief of Naval Oper- ations (CNO) established the Office of the Executive Learning Officer (ELO) to lead the Navy in creating learning and experiential oppor- tunities for senior naval leaders to develop these additional kinds of expertise. Working with the ELO, RAND focused on identifying the expertise requirements of Navy flag billets and joint billets filled by Navy flag officers as a means of understanding what learning and expe- riential opportunities are needed. The study’s results will be of greatest interest to senior leaders in the Navy and those individuals and organi- zations engaged in the development of naval officers. This research was sponsored by the Chief of Naval Personnel and conducted within the Forces and Resources Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and iii iv Developing Senior Navy Leaders: Requirements for Flag Officer Expertise development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on RAND’s Forces and Resources Policy Center, contact the Director, James Hosek. He can be reached by email at [email protected]; by phone at 310-393-0411, extension 7183; or by mail at the RAND Corporation, 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, California 90407-2138. More information about RAND is available at http://www.rand.org. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments .............................................................. xxi Abbreviations .................................................................. xxiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Organization of This Monograph ................................................ 3 CHAPTER TWO Background ........................................................................ 5 Flag Officers Serve in a Wide Range of Billets ................................. 6 What Kinds of Officers Lead the Navy? ........................................ 8 CHAPTER THREE A Framework for Understanding Flag Officer Billet Requirements ................................................................19 Domain Expertise ................................................................ 20 Leadership, Management, and Enterprise Expertise ......................... 23 Identifying the Requirements for Expertise ................................... 24 The Job Book Documents Area-of-Expertise and Other Billet Requirements ..........................................................25 v vi Developing Senior Navy Leaders: Requirements for Flag Officer Expertise CHAPTER FOUR A Closer Look at Expertise Requirements ................................. 27 Flexibility in Primary Area of Expertise ....................................... 27 Secondary Areas of Expertise ....................................................29 Importance of Leadership, Management, and Enterprise Expertise ....... 30 Relating Expertise Requirements to Pre-Flag Officer Development ....... 34 Flag Officer Requirements Have Critical Bottlenecks ....................... 36 Reconciling the Constraining Requirements ..................................41 CHAPTER FIVE Matching Domain Expertise to Billets in the Navy Flag Officer Force................................................... 43 Modeling the Average Flows of Inventory in the Flag Officer Ranks ..... 44 Application of the Data in the Model ..........................................47 Deriving Sets of Areas of Expertise from the Billet Database ............ 50 Average Times in Grade ....................................................... 50 Upper Bounds on Promotion Probabilities and Thresholds on Promotion Rates .......................................................... 50 Some Results from a Sample Run of the Model ...............................51 Exploring Annual Promotion Rates ..........................................53 Concluding Remarks .............................................................58 CHAPTER SIX RDML Selectees: Comparison with Model-Determined Requirements ................................................................61 Characterizing the Supply ........................................................61 Can All the Identified Expertise Pairs Be Used? ..............................62 Are All Necessary Expertise Pairs Available Among the Six Cohorts? ......67 A Final Word on the Gap Analysis .............................................67
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