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Global EV Outlook 2017 Two Million and Counting

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Global EV Outlook 2017 Two Million and Counting Global EV Outlook Two million and2017 counting INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 29 member countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agency’s aims include the following objectives: n Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. n Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. n Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. n Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Secure Sustainable Hungary Together Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic © OECD/IEA, 2017 Spain International Energy Agency Sweden Website: www.iea.org Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Please note that this publication United States is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The European Commission The terms and conditions are also participates in available online at www.iea.org/t&c/ the work of the IEA. © OECD/IEA 2017 Global EV outlook 2017 Two million and counting Table of contents Executive summary ........................................................................................................................... 5 Introduction and scope ..................................................................................................................... 8 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 8 Page | 1 The EVI ........................................................................................................................................... 9 Scope of this report ..................................................................................................................... 10 Data sources ................................................................................................................................ 11 EV deployment ................................................................................................................................ 12 Electric cars ................................................................................................................................. 12 Market evolution ..................................................................................................................... 12 Policy support .......................................................................................................................... 13 Vehicle stock ............................................................................................................................ 21 Progress towards deployment targets .................................................................................... 22 Other modes ............................................................................................................................... 27 Low-speed electric vehicles ..................................................................................................... 27 Two-wheelers and three-wheelers ......................................................................................... 27 Electric buses ........................................................................................................................... 28 Electric vehicle supply equipment .................................................................................................. 29 Standards and types of chargers ................................................................................................. 29 Historical developments.............................................................................................................. 31 EVSE policy support ..................................................................................................................... 32 Overview ................................................................................................................................. 32 National and supra-national policy frameworks ..................................................................... 33 Policy needs best addressed by cities and local administrations............................................ 36 Prospects for future EVSE deployment ....................................................................................... 39 Challenges and opportunities for the power sector ....................................................................... 41 Impact of EVs on the power system ............................................................................................ 41 Mitigating the potential impacts of EV charging ......................................................................... 42 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 46 Statistical annex .............................................................................................................................. 48 Electric car stock .......................................................................................................................... 49 Electric cars: New registrations ................................................................................................... 50 Electric cars: Market share .......................................................................................................... 51 EVSE ............................................................................................................................................. 52 Global EV outlook 2017 © OECD/IEA 2017 Two million and counting EV support policies annex ............................................................................................................... 53 References ....................................................................................................................................... 56 Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure.............................................................................. 65 Acronyms and abbreviations ....................................................................................................... 65 Page | 2 Units of measurement ................................................................................................................ 66 List of figures Figure 1 ● Evolution of the global electric car stock, 2010-16 .................................................................. 5 Figure 2 ● Deployment scenarios for the stock of electric cars to 2030 .......................................................... 6 Figure 3 ● GHG emission budgets and emission trajectories to 2100 for the energy sector, 2DS and B2DS................................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 4 ● EVI member countries and country coverage of the Global EV Outlook 2017 ............................. 11 Figure 5 ● Electric car sales, market share, and BEV and PHEV sales shares in selected countries, 2010-16 ......................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 6 ● Evolution of battery energy density and cost ............................................................................... 14 Figure 7 ● Comparative cost of PLDV technologies by country/region in the 2DS, 2015 and 2030 .............. 20 Figure 8 ● Evolution of the global electric car stock, 2010-16 ....................................................................... 22 Figure 9 ● Deployment scenarios for the stock of electric cars to 2030 ........................................................ 25 Figure 10 ● On-road well-to-wheel CO2 emissions for PLDVs for various powertrain technologies by country or region: RTS and 2DS, 2015 to 2030 .................................................... 26 Figure 11 ● Global EVSE outlets, 2010-16 ...................................................................................................... 31 Figure 12 ● Electric car stock and publicly available EVSE outlets by country and type of charger, 2016 ..................................................................................................................... 32 Figure 15 ● Charging
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