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Automotive Production Outlook North America and the Global Impact

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Automotive Production Outlook North America and the Global Impact Automotive Production Outlook North America and the Global Impact Session: Forecasting the North American Sales and Production Footprint in Uncertain Times Joseph McCabe, President 855.734.4590 ext. 1001 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 Competing in a Disruptive Global Market Market Drivers, Enablers & Constraints • Consumer preference vs. market direction • Shareholder value Economic Recovery • Supply chain importance to the VM strategy Ownership Financial • Innovation in product and strategy & Operating Markets Cost • Investment strategies Market Direction & • Regulations and incentives the need for Innovation • Geo-political impact on globalization Technology Gov’t Price Effects Investment • Future players Auto Supply • Minimize risk and maximize opportunities Chain • Defend core operations and identify areas for growth 3 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 Disruptive Consumer Views: Brand & Domestic Production Loyalty • Are consumers concerned about where • New players opening up the competitive their vehicle is built? landscape? • China - Buick Envision, Cadillac CT6 PHEV, and • Tesla Volvo S60 • Google • Italy - Jeep Renegade • Apple • “Imported from Detroit” campaign – Chrysler • Dyson Pacifica and 300 built in Canada • Silicon Valley • Do consumers care about the parent • Is the landscape changing? company ownership? • Uber • Geely Volvo • Lyft • Tata Jaguar/Land Rover • Ride sharing • More to come! 4 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 5 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 NA Growth Outlook and OEM Group Contribution North America Y-O-Y Production Volume Impact 18.37 700,000 700,000 19 18.31 18.33 600,000 600,000 18 18.21 500,000 425,161 500,000 18 18.09 400,000 400,000 18.00 300,000 300,000 18 310,000 17.85 200,000 150,000 200,000 17.79 92,222122,132 94,356 18 EV 100,000 EU 24,079 100,000 18 0 0 Millions -100,000 -100,000 17 17.54 -200,000 -200,000 17 -300,000 D3 -300,000 17 -400,000 -400,000 Y Production Volume Variance Volume Y Production 17.11 -500,000 -500,000 - 17 O - -600,000 -600,000 Y 17 Group by OEM Change Volume Production -670,392 -700,000 AP -700,000 16 -800,000 -800,000 -900,000 -900,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Calendar Year D3 EU AP EV Total YOY Change Source: AutoForecast Solutions – June 2018 6 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 NAFTA Greenfield Production Investment (2017 – 2025) 1,000,000 UNITED STATES MEXICO • Daimler North Charleston, South Carolina • BMW San Luis Potosi, Mexico (2019) 900,000 (2018) • BMW (2-Series Coupe, 3-Series) • Freightliner/Mercedes Sprinter • COMPAS (RNNS + Daimler) Aguascalientes, Mexico 800,000 • Faraday Future Hanford, California (2018) (2017) • Faraday large EV Plus • Infiniti QX50 700,000 • Karma Automotive Moreno Valley, California • Daimler (A-Class, GLB) 600,000 (2017) • Giant Motors Hidalgo, Mexico (2017) • Karma Revero • JAC (Refine S2, S3) 500,000 • Lucid Motor Casa Grande, Arizona (2019) • Toyota Guanajuato, Mexico (2018) • Lucid (Air, D-SUV) • Toyota Tacoma 400,000 • Navistar Springfield, Ohio (2017) • Chevrolet Express, GMC Savana 300,000 • Rivian Automotive Normal, Illinois (2020) 200,000 • Rivian (CUV, Pickup) CANADA • Volvo (Geely) Berkeley County, South Carolina • Ford (via Multimatic) Markham, Ontario (2017) 100,000 (2018) • Ford GT • Volvo (S60/S60L, XC90) 0 • SF Motors Mishawaka, Indiana (2020) • SF Motors (SF5, SF7) • Mazda Toyota Huntsville, Alabama (2021) Canada United States Mexico • Mazda CX-7, Toyota Corolla Source: AutoForecast Solutions – June 2018 7 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 North America – The Changing Product Mix North America Segment Mix Factors Driving Investment & Assembly Decisions • Fuel Prices vs. Fuel Economy • Funding Access Trucks/Vans 2025 • Consumer Confidence 23% 2018 27% • New players / Brand loyalty 23% • Technology / Safety 2010 32% 20% • Market Stability Cars SUV 8% 43% • 7% Employment 7% • Pent-Up Demand 24% 3% 5% 3% • Regulation Minivan 35% • Government Involvement CUV 40% CONSUMER PREFERENCE! Source: AutoForecast Solutions – June 2018 8 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 North America: Passenger Car Segment Contribution Annual Volume 2018 = 5.7M • D3 reduce car footprint by 500K+ 2025 = 5.0M OTHER 10% 2025 OTHER • Korean OEMs remain flat D3 8% 2018 17% D3 24% Japan Japan 48% 50% • European OEMs gain 60K Korea Korea 12% European 13% 8% • Japanese OEMs reduce footprint by 200K+ European 10% • Other – primarily Tesla – adds 15K Japan European Korea D3 OTHER Source: AutoForecast Solutions – June 2018 9 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 North America: Crossover Vehicle Segment Contribution Annual Volume • European OEMs add 400K+ units 2018 = 6.2M 2025 = 7.4M OTHER D3 • Japanese OEMs add 270K units 3% 39% D3 OTHER 2025 • Korean OEMs add 120K units 44% 1% 2018 Japan Japan • The “Other” group includes Tesla, other EV Korea 36% 34% players – adding about 200K 4% Korea European 5% 15% • D3 add 180K (but loses market share?) European • Consider these imported models… 19% • Jeep Renegade from Italy – 100K+ • Buick Encore from Korea – 90K+ • Ford EcoSport from India – 50K pace Japan European Korea D3 OTHER Source: AutoForecast Solutions – June 2018 10 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 NAFTA+ (2025) Light Vehicle Platforms containing NAFTA production and at least one other country in ROW GLOBAL PLATFORMS NAFTA+ 14% 423 Platforms Produced Globally 61 NAFTA+ Platforms 14% of total Global NA VOLUME NAFTA Only 80% of North America vehicle volumes are part of NAFTA+ NAFTA+ 14.7 Million vehicles 80% Source: AutoForecast Solutions – June 2018 12 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 NAFTA+ Opportunity/Risk (2025) GLOBAL NAFTA+ PRODUCTION NAFTA 52 Million NAFTA+ vehicles Over 72% Produced OUTSIDE of NAFTA ROW 72% GLOBAL LESS NA PRODUCTION NAFTA+ 43% of vehicles assembled OUTSIDE NAFTA are 43% part of NAFTA+ ROW 37.4 Million vehicles Source: AutoForecast Solutions – June 2018 13 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 14 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 Global Light Vehicle Production (2010 – 2025) GLOBAL LIGHT VEHICLE PRODUCTION Volume Growth (2010 – 2025) 120 Millions -2 2 6 10 14 18 100 104.3 80 95.5 ASIA-PACIFIC 17.7 60 70.0 EASTERN EUROPE 2.6 Millions 59.9 40 MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA 1.0 20 NORTH AMERICA 6.4 0 SOUTH AMERICA -0.2 WESTERN EUROPE 2.2 Region 2017 (Mil) 2018 Forecast (Mil) 2025 Fct (Mil) CAGR (2017 – 2025) NA 17.11 17.54 18.37 0.9% SA 3.27 3.59 3.94 2.4% WE 14.94 15.47 15.55 0.5% EE 7.46 7.86 8.61 1.8% AP 50.22 51.78 54.65 1.1% ME/A 2.51 2.65 3.20 3.1% TOTAL 95.52 98.89 104.31 1.1% Source: AutoForecast Solutions – June 2018 15 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 Global Segment Growth Analysis 2010 - 2017 2017 - 2025 21 Million Units Volume Growth 9 Million Units Volume Growth CAR CAR Pickup Pickup CUV CUV SUV SUV Light CV Light CV Minivan Minivan -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Millions Millions 40% 150% 30% 110% 20% 70% 10% 30% 0% -10% -10% Source: AutoForecast Solutions – June 2018 16 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 “1 Million Unit Club” Brand Owner Analysis (2017 vs. 2025) MILLION UNITS OF GLOBAL PRODUCTION 21 Brand Owners in 2025 over 1 RANKING BASED ON 2025 POSITION Million units of Annual Production 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 • 91% of total global output Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Volkswagen Toyota Motor Top 10 brand owners maintain Hyundai Motor Ford Motor 72% of the global automotive General Motors production volumes FCA Honda Motor • Renault/Nissan moves from 3rd (2016) to Groupe PSA the lead by 2025 as a result of the Daimler Mitsubishi acquisition Geely Group BMW SAIC-GM-Wuling Mazda Motor Inductees since 2010 Changan Auto Maruti Suzuki • Beijing Automotive Group Tata • Great Wall Automobile Suzuki Motor Great Wall Automobile • Geely Group (Leveraging Volvo purchase) Subaru • Tata Beijing Automotive Group • Subaru 2025 2017 Source: AutoForecast Solutions – June 2018 17 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 China: Fractured Decision Making Competing in China requires a firm Volkswagen 10% 2025 understanding of the customer base Geely 6% • 30 million light vehicles to be produced in 2025 Changan 2018 11% 5% 5% • 10 Brands representing 50% of the Chinese market will % of Total 5% Honda have annual production over 1 million units by 2025 Production 5% 5% OTHER 50% 51% in China by 4% Baojun • 22 Different Vehicle Manufacturers assemble these top 10 Brand 5% 4% vehicle brands 5% 2% Wuling 4% 4% 4% • 60% of those brands have foreign ownership Buick 4% Ford • Decision Makers can be from a variety of sources and Toyota 4% locations, creating a difficult competitive terrain to navigate Nissan 4% 3% Source: AutoForecast Solutions – June 2018 18 CAR Management Briefing Seminar July 31, 2018 North America Risk Assessment – Protectionism Tariff Impact European OEMs • Brand Imports by Sales Volume (50K+/yr.) • Luxury Vehicles • Nissan, Toyota, Mazda, Subaru, Hyundai, • BMW and Daimler will be able to “afford” to Jeep, Kia, Buick, Honda, Mercedes subsidize tariffs • Represents over 1.8M units • Main Stream Vehicles • VW, which is more subject to compete on price, • Canadian Footprint will have a more difficult time • GM product consolidation and plant closures • Additional costs will limit investment • Powertrains imported • Future of dedicated capacity? • US a threat to EU automotive industry? • Plant in Focus: Lordstown • European’s do not consume US-built vehicles
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