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2017 Passenger Vehicles Actual and Reported Fuel Consumption: a Gap Analysis

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2017 Passenger Vehicles Actual and Reported Fuel Consumption: a Gap Analysis 2017 Passenger Vehicles Actual and Reported Fuel Consumption: A Gap Analysis Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation December 2017 1 Acknowledgements We wish to thank the Energy Foundation for providing us with the financial support required for the execution of this report and subsequent research work. We would also like to express our sincere thanks for the valuable advice and recommendations provided by distinguished industry experts and colleagues—Jin Yuefu, Li Mengliang, Guo Qianli,. Meng Qingkuo, Ma Dong, Yang Zifei, Xin Yan and Gong Huiming. Authors Lanzhi Qin, Maya Ben Dror, Hongbo Sun, Liping Kang, Feng An Disclosure The report does not represent the views of its funders nor supporters. The Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation (iCET) Beijing Fortune Plaza Tower A Suite 27H No.7 DongSanHuan Middle Rd., Chaoyang District, Beijing 10020 Phone: 0086.10.6585.7324 Email: [email protected] Website: www.icet.org.cn 2 Glossary of Terms LDV Light Duty Vehicles; Vehicles of M1, M2 and N1 category not exceeding 3,500kg curb-weight. Category M1 Vehicles designed and constructed for the carriage of passengers comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat. Category M2 Vehicles designed and constructed for the carriage of passengers, comprising more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat, and having a maximum mass not exceeding 5 tons. Category N1 Vehicles designed and constructed for the carriage of goods and having a maximum mass not exceeding 3.5 tons. Real-world FC FC values calculated based on BearOil app user data input. Certified FC Prior to sale in China (either domestic produced or imported cars), the vehicle is certified according to the “light duty vehicle FC testing method” standard (GB/T19233). The fuel consumption result combines, urban and rural fuel consumption tests. Entity vehicle Vehicle registered by companies and/or government. Effective figure While each of the models assessed in this study has an actual average FC based BearOil app user input (calculated as ), an average variance is used for deciding whether or not the average figure is robust enough to be used (calculated as ). In this study we only use data in the range M-2s2 <data<M+2s2. Private vehicle Vehicle registered for private use. Commercial vehicle Freight vehicles and vehicles with over nine seats (including driver’s seat); see GB/T3730.1-2001 for more details. Passenger vehicles All vehicles with up to nine seats (including the driver’s seat); see GB/T3730.1-2001 for more details. NEDC New European Driving Cycle MIIT Ministry of Industry and Information Technology IEA International Energy Agency 3 Table of Contents Study Highlights ................................................................................................................................................ 7 1. Background .............................................................................................................................................. 14 2. Data ............................................................................................................................................................. 15 2.1 Lab-based FC data ................................................................................................................................... 15 2.2 New in-use FC data ................................................................................................................................. 19 2.2.1 Data provider ............................................................................................................................................ 19 2.2.2 Data representation ............................................................................................................................... 19 2.2.3 Data collection practices ..................................................................................................................... 20 2.2.4 Data cleaning ............................................................................................................................................ 21 3. Analysis .......................................................................................................................................................... 22 3.1 General FC gap .......................................................................................................................................... 23 3.1.1 By-transmission type FC gap analysis results ............................................................................ 23 3.1.2 By-segment FC gap analysis results ................................................................................................ 26 3.2 Weight and technology impacts on China’s FC gap ................................................................... 31 3.2.1 By-weight FC gap analysis results ................................................................................................... 31 3.2.2 A typical actual FC range for a certified range ......................................................................... 35 3.2.3 Turbocharging efficiency technologies’ impact on the FC gap .......................................... 40 3.3 Spatial and temporal FC gap analyses results ............................................................................. 42 3.3.1 Spatial FC gap analyses results ......................................................................................................... 42 3.3.2 Temporal FC gap analyses results ................................................................................................... 43 3.4 By-model FC gap analysis .................................................................................................................... 48 3.4.1 Selected brand FC comparison .......................................................................................................... 48 3.4.2 Brand type FC gap comparison (importing, JV, independent) ............................................ 50 3.5 Best-selling passenger vehicles actual and certified FC gaps ............................................... 52 4. Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................ 54 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................................................... 56 Appendix ............................................................................................................................................................ 59 4 List of Figures Figure 1: China's type test driving conditions .................................................................................................................. 16 Figure 2: FC reporting on the MIIT website ...................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 3: ICE vehicle Label: GB 22757-2008 (left), GB 22757.1-DRAFT (middle), GB 22757.1-2017 (right); Partially translated to English by iCET ............................................................................................................... 17 Figure 4: BearOil by-segment user breakdown ............................................................................................................... 20 Figure 5: China by-segment user breakdown as reflected in 2016 new car sales ............................................ 20 Figure 6: App snapshot .............................................................................................................................................................. 21 Figure 7: Reported and actual FC development trend comparison......................................................................... 23 Figure 8: Comparison between cumulated carbon emissions resulted from reported and actual FC ...... 24 Figure 8: The proportion of MT cars between 2008-2016 ......................................................................................... 25 Figure 9: China's 2008-2016 actual vs. reported FC ...................................................................................................... 25 Figure 10: Corrected versus original FC gap ..................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 10: By-segment FC gap analysis results ................................................................................................................ 28 Figure 12: Sample proportions of different SUV types in BearOil database ........................................................ 29 Figure 13: SUV in-depth analyses results ........................................................................................................................... 30 Figure 14: By-weight vehicle portion of China's passenger fleet (BearOil database) ..................................... 31 Figure 15: Vehicle curb-weight based actual FC versus FC limit .............................................................................. 32 Figure 16：Vehicle curb-weight based FC gap analysis ............................................................................................... 32 Figure 17: Vehicle curb-weight based actual FC versus FC limit for SUVs ............................................................ 33 Figure 18: Vehicle curb-weight based FC gap analysis for SUVs ..............................................................................
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