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Great Wall Motor (2333.HK) Citi Research Equities 27 July 2015 │ 8 pages Auto Manufacturers Asia │ China Great Wall Motor (2333.HK) Results: Resilient 2Q Result in an Extremely Tough Market; Buy Citi's Take — The Rmb4.9bn 1H15 net profit (+24% y-y) reported by GWM is Buy 1 definitely something encouraging in the extremely tough environment of China Price (27 Jul 15) HK$27.15 autos. With volume growth of 20% y-y, revenue and net profit grew by 30% and Target price HK$56.00 24% respectively in 1H15. In 2Q alone, its 22% volume growth brought 29% Expected share price return 106.3% revenue growth and 21% net profit growth, a great result compared to recent sell-off Expected dividend yield 3.7% of the stock. Ignoring market momentum, this one-year lowest level constitutes a Expected total return great buying opportunity for value investors, in our view. 109.9% Market Cap HK$82,602M Volume or pricing – There is always a trade-off between volume and US$10,656M pricing/margin for auto OEMs, and GWM historically has insisted more on pricing side, leading to a high margin that was criticized by bearish analysts as “not sustainable”. With the slack season in June, the seasonal pullback of H6 and H2 volume has triggered management to offer a summer incentive of 5% till end-Sep to Price Performance smooth monthly volume. While we think it’s a realistic balance between (RIC: 2333.HK, BB: 2333 HK) volume/margin, the market reacted with a hasty sell-off, which we think is totally overdone. Placement plan – We had a mixed feeling on its A-share placement plan at Rmb43.41 two weeks ago, thinking it’s over-conservative on financial management. However, with the share price down a further 25% in A and 39% in H since then, we don’t think the placement could continue to proceed and we don’t expect GWM to compromise much on placement price. The plan may not be carried out. Implications — While we believe almost the whole auto industry is going to miss Street consensus on interim results, GWM is perhaps the most resilient one with least miss (actually on track for a beat on buy-side expectations we think). We indeed worry that industry margins may be eroded with price competition but GWM offers most protection with its margins and competitiveness in the SUV market. Statistical Abstract Paul Gong +852-2501-2787 Year to Net Profit Diluted EPS EPS growth P/E P/B ROE Yield [email protected] 31 Dec (RmbM) (Rmb) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) Sherry He 2013A 8,224 2.703 44.5 8.0 2.4 33.2 3.8 [email protected] 2014A 8,042 2.643 -2.2 8.2 2.0 26.2 3.7 2015E 10,667 3.506 32.7 6.2 1.6 28.4 4.8 2016E 13,673 4.494 28.2 4.8 1.3 29.1 6.2 2017E 15,234 5.007 11.4 4.3 1.0 26.4 6.9 Source: Powered by dataCentral See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and non-US research analyst disclosures. Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Certain products (not inconsistent with the author's published research) are available only on Citi's portals. Not for distribution in the People's Republic of China, excluding the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors. Great Wall Motor (2333.HK) 27 July 2015 Citi Research Figure 1. GWM – 1H15 Earnings Review 1H14 2H14 1H15 y-y % h-h % Citi '15E 1H as % Volume (Unit) Pickup truck 65,121 53,165 52,716 -19% -1% 110,000 48% SUV 225,273 294,145 334,890 49% 14% 705,000 48% M2/M4 53,575 36,542 23,682 -56% -35% 30,000 79% Haval H1 - 13,049 37,134 185% 70,000 53% Haval H2 - 49,351 77,158 56% 150,000 51% Haval H5 28,593 17,352 12,907 -55% -26% 25,000 52% Haval H6/Coupe 143,105 172,749 172,006 20% 0% 390,000 44% Haval H8 - - 2,671 25,000 11% Haval H9 - 5,102 9,332 83% 15,000 62% Sedan & others 57,010 36,058 27,729 -51% -23% 50,000 55% Total volume 347,404 383,368 415,335 20% 8% 865,000 48% Ex-factory ASP (Rmb) 82,115 88,875 89,434 9% 1% 94,202 P/L (Rmb mn) Total revenue 28,527 34,072 37,145 30% 9% 81,485 46% Operating profit 4,699 4,555 5,846 24% 28% 12,784 46% Profit before tax 4,767 4,883 5,946 25% 22% 12,852 46% Net profit 3,954 4,098 4,901 24% 20% 10,667 46% Cons NI 10,481 47% OP Margin % 16.5 13.4 15.7 -0.7ppt 2.4ppt 15.7 Net Margin % 13.9 12.0 13.2 -0.7ppt 1.2ppt 13.1 Source: Company Reports and Citi Research Estimates Figure 2. GWM – 2Q15 Earnings Review 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 y-y % q-q % Citi '15E 2Q as % Volume (Unit) Pickup truck 32,880 28,373 24,343 -26% -14% 110,000 22% SUV 111,269 175,509 159,381 43% -9% 705,000 23% M2/M4 20,952 13,239 10,443 -50% -21% 30,000 35% Haval H1 - 19,849 17,285 -13% 70,000 25% Haval H2 - 41,743 35,415 -15% 150,000 24% Haval H5 15,096 6,195 6,712 -56% 8% 25,000 27% Haval H6/Coupe 75,221 87,749 84,257 12% -4% 390,000 22% Haval H8 - - 2,671 25,000 11% Haval H9 - 6,734 2,598 -61% 15,000 17% Sedan & others 15,486 16,970 10,759 -31% -37% 50,000 22% Total volume 159,635 220,852 194,483 22% -12% 865,000 22% Ex-factory ASP (Rmb) 86,396 87,564 91,557 6% 5% 94,202 P/L (Rmb mn) Total revenue 13,792 19,339 17,806 29% -8% 81,485 22% Operating profit 2,290 3,062 2,784 22% -9% 12,784 22% Profit before tax 2,330 3,101 2,845 22% -8% 12,852 22% Net profit 1,949 2,536 2,365 21% -7% 10,667 22% Cons NI 10,481 23% OP Margin % 16.6 15.8 15.6 -1.0ppt -0.2ppt 15.7 Net Margin % 14.1 13.1 13.3 -0.8ppt 0.2ppt 13.1 Source: Company Reports and Citi Research Estimates 2 Great Wall Motor (2333.HK) 27 July 2015 Citi Research Great Wall Motor Valuation Our 12-month target price of HK$56 for Great Wall is based on 10x 2016E EPS, equivalent to 1x SD above the historical average. We believe it is reasonable considering the company's 24% EPS CAGR in 2014-17E, based on our estimates. We believe the 1x SD is justified in this new products ramping-up cycle. P/E is the most common methodology used to value auto stocks, as earnings changes directly affect share price movements. Risks Downside risks that could prevent the stock from reaching our target price are: 1) negative surprising results from its new SUV models H8 and H6 Coupe; 2) weakening of its popular H6 SUV; 3) failure to launch pipeline models on time; and 4) disappointing margins. Appendix A-1 Analyst Certification The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are named in bold text in the author block at the front of the product except for those sections where an analyst's name appears in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. Each of these analyst(s) certify, with respect to the section(s) of the report for which they are responsible, that the views expressed therein accurately reflect their personal views about each issuer and security referenced and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to Citigroup Global Markets Inc and its affiliates. No part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed by that research analyst in this report. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 3 Great Wall Motor (2333.HK) 27 July 2015 Citi Research Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates has received compensation for investment banking services provided within the past 12 months from Great Wall Motor. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as investment banking client(s): Great Wall Motor. Analysts' compensation is determined based upon activities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates ("the Firm"). Like all Firm employees, analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability which includes investment banking revenues. For important disclosures (including copies of historical disclosures) regarding the companies that are the subject of this Citi Research product ("the Product"), please contact Citi Research, 388 Greenwich Street, 28th Floor, New York, NY, 10013, Attention: Legal/Compliance [E6WYB6412478]. In addition, the same important disclosures, with the exception of the Valuation and Risk assessments and historical disclosures, are contained on the Firm's disclosure website at https://www.citivelocity.com/cvr/eppublic/citi_research_disclosures.
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