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WORKING PAPER 2019-10

Comparison of the electric market in and the

Authors: Lingzhi Jin, Hui He Date: May 2019 Keywords: ; market; China; United States

Introduction intends to shed light in the uniqueness The analysis focuses on passenger and similarities in the two market, and electric vehicles (interchangeably In 2017, global electric passenger car show their market characteristics and with ). sales passed one million units, and trends over the three-year period. It approximately every seven out of also acts as an update to our 2015 ten of them were sold in China or the report (He, Jin, Cui & Zhou, 2018) on Market characters of electric United States (EV Volumes, 2018). the electric passenger vehicle market in the U.S. and China As the two largest national electric in China. vehicle markets, the countries both OVERALL MARKET TREND have a remarkable electric car growth The new vehicle registration data was over the past few years and very obtained from industry websites, two Both nations experienced remarkable dynamic market environment. previous ICCT papers (Lutsey, Slowik growth of electric car sales in the past & Jin, 2016; Slowik & Lutsey, 2018) and decade. The U.S. market took off in This briefing, part one of a two-paper the China Automotive Technology and early 2010s, approximately two years series, compares the market and tech- Research Center. These data contain earlier than in China. But China’s nological characteristics of electric national aggregate data and detailed market grew at much faster pace, cars in China and the United States, local data for major U.S. metropolitan especially after 2014. The growth rate based on 2015 and 2017 data. It areas and over 300 Chinese cities. in the United States slowed down after 2013 compared to the previous two 600,000 years but remained steady. US China Since 2013, China has accomplished 500,000 a phenomenal growth of new energy vehicle (NEV) sales, namely battery 400,000 electric (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV), and vehicles (FCVs). With an annual growth rate of at least 300,000 45% for six consecutive years from 2012 to 2017, China emerged as an 200,000 evident leader among major electric vehicle markets globally. In 2017, new

Electric car annual new sales 100,000 electric car sales in China reached over 500,000. It contributed to almost half of 0 the total sales worldwide, and more than 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 twice the sales in the U.S. In the U.S., Figure 1. Historical annual sales of plug-in electric passenger vehicles in China and the growth in NEV sales remained steady United States (2010–2017). Sales data is based on EV Sales (2018); EV Volumes (2018); at between 20% to 30%, with the total Hybridcars (2018); CAAM (2018). sales of around 190,000 in 2017.

© INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION, 2019 WWW.THEICCT.ORG COMPARISON OF THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

Electric car sales and passenger vehicle sales in 2017. These Providence and Kansas City joined market share in leading numbers were similar in 2015. the list in 2017, while Indianapolis and Dallas dropped out. In China, seven Chinese cities More leading cities had a higher cities changed between the two years. electric car market share in China than The thirty leading cities in electric car For example, and market share in China and the United in the United States, while China’s dropped out of the list and States based on 2015 and 2017 data national average uptake was slightly and Baoding were added in 2017. One are shown in Figure 2. In both markets, lower in 2017. The average market caveat is Weifang, who ranks high in the majority of the electric car sales penetration of electric cars in these the list in 2017. The insurance data are concentrated in a small number of cities is approximately 4.5% and 2%, on which the sales number are based cities. In China, the top 30 cities col- significantly greater than the national do not properly reflect the sales in lectively represented 72% of the total average of 0.9% and 1.2% in China and that city, and the real sales number national electric car market in 2017, the United States, respectively. are lower. This is due to the differ- while contributing to only 36% of the ence in subsidies in different prov- passenger vehicle sales in 2017. In the The leading cities in the United States inces. Dealers in , which had United States, the top 30 cities made have remained relatively consis- no subsidies, chose to get insurance up about 74% of the total electric car tent, with the only change being the locally but obtain license in other sales, while contributing to 42% of the two cities on lower part of the list: places in order to obtain subsidies.

China US 2015 2017 2015 2017 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%12% 14% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%14% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%12% 14% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%12% 14% Tianjin San Jose San Jose San Francisco San Francisco Hangzhou Liuzhou Los Angeles Guangzhou Weifang San Diego San Diego Qingdao Beijing Atlanta Sacramento Beijing Shanghai Sacramento Seattle Changsha Shenzhen Seattle Portland Tianjin Qingdao Portland Riverside Linyi Nanchang Riverside Denver Wuhan Xiamen Austin Boston Jining Salt Lake City Washington Kunming Changsha Nashville Hartford Xiamen Guangzhou Denver New York Xi’an Nanjing Phoenix Phoenix Nanchang Zhengzhou Washington Austin Wuhan Indianapolis Salt Lake City Taiyuan Ningbo Boston Baltimore Zhengzhou Kunming Las Vegas Las Vegas Xingtai Hefei Hartford Providence Weifang Chongqing New York Raleigh Dalian Jinhua Raleigh Philadelphia Nanjing Xi’an Miami Minneapolis Lanzhou Philadelphia Atlanta Jinhua Xingtai Baltimore Chicago Handan Nanning Tampa Detroit Shijiazhuang Heze Chicago Nashville Nantong Linyi Detroit Miami Hefei Haikou Dallas Tampa Changzhou Baoding Columbus Kansas City Foshan Chengdu Minneapolis Columbus

Figure 2. Electric car market share in the top 30 cities in China and the United States, 2015 and 2017. For China, cities with over 100,000 electric vehicle sales are shown to exclude small cities with only a few electric vehicles but a relatively high share.

2 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION WORKING PAPER 2019-10 COMPARISON OF THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

MARKET SHARE BY BRAND Lifan Others Others In both countries, a small number of 2% Dongfeng 10% 11% BAIC 3% brands contribute to the majority of 4% BYD 21% the electric car market share. Less 26% Changan 4% than 10 brands made up 90% or more JAC 4% of the total electric car market share JAC SAIC 6% in both countries in both years. In 7% China, these are all domestic brands JMC BYD 7% (some formed joint ventures with BAIC 17% 8% Kandi Jiangnan foreign brands), while the U.S. is 15% 7% more open to international brands. Zotye 9% SAIC Zhidou 11% 13% In 2015, there were 23 electric car 15% manufacturers in China, with the 9 largest making up about 90% of Figure 3. Electric car brand market shares in China, 2015 and 2017. the total sales (Figure 3). In 2017, although the total number of brands Others increased to 34, the 9 largest compa- 5% 2% Kia nies still made up about 89% of the 3% 2% Others total sales. In 2017, BAIC overtook 2% Tesla 9% Tesla 4% BYD and became the leading brand, 23% 24% Fiat 3% and traditional vehicle manufactur- 5% ers such as Dongfeng and Changan 6% started to take up a larger electric BMW vehicle market share. Some Zhidou 12% BMW vehicles were produced under Geely 10% Ford and others under Jiangnan in 2017. 16% In addition, Zotye was registered Ford Nissan 23% under Jiangnan and Kandi was regis- 15% 10% tered under Geely. These changes are Chevrolet Toyota 15% 11% probably due to strategy changes within an auto group or partnership. Figure 4. Electric car brand market shares in the United States, 2015 and 2017.

In the United States, Tesla remained market share in 2017 compared to electric SUVs. Its π1 has been very the leading brand in both 2015 and 2015, and Volkswagen and Mercedes popular among consumers since its 2017, with about a quarter of the total dropped off of the top 9 list. release. Technology companies are market share (Figure 4). Chevrolet also entering the electric car market, moved from third to second place In China, conventional vehicle manu- sometimes choose to partner with in 2017, with about half of its sales facturers, such as BAIC, SAIC, BYD, traditional vehicle manufacturers. coming from its Bolt model. Toyota JAC and JMC, account for most of For example, Xiaopeng Automotive acquired a market share of 11% in 2017 the electric car market share. There Technology was the first technology with its Prius Prime, up from only 3% are a number of new electric vehicle company to be able to mass-produce in 2015, ranking behind Chevrolet. manufacturers emerging, such as electric vehicles with a partnership Nissan, BMW and Ford all lost some Yudo, which focuses on battery with Haima.

WORKING PAPER 2019-10 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION 3 COMPARISON OF THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

LEADING MANUFACTURERS BAIC BYD Changan Chery Dongfeng Geely JAC Jiangnan JMC SAIC Others BY REGION Beijing Chongqing Figure 5 shows the market share Fujian of specific electric vehicle man- ufacturers in each province or state in 2017. Regional China Guizhou and U.S market share by manu- Hainan Hebei facturer show very different Heilongjiang patterns. In China, manufacturers Henan tend to take up a larger share of Hubei the market in a province if their headquarters or Jiangxi Jilin plant is located there. Examples are BAIC in Beijing, BYD in Neimenggu Ningxia Guangdong, Geely in , Qinghai JMC in Jiangxi and SAIC in Shaanxi Shanghai. This dynamic is not as Shandong Shanghai important In the United States, Shanxi as both domestic and foreign Sichuan Tianjin automakers have strong nation- Xinjiang wide distribution and dealership Yunnan networks. One exception is Tesla, Zhejiang Share of sales in province by manufacturer which is more concentrated on 0% 86% the West Coast possibly because Fiat- Hyundai- it is a new company. Some Tesla GM Toyota Ford BMW Nissan Chrysler Volkswagen Kia Mercedes Others manufacturers performed well AZ in all markets, such as Tesla and CA CO ; some had slightly CT larger share in selected states, FL GA for example, Toyota and Ford; HI and others had a small market IL share in all the markets, such as IN MA Hyundai-Kia and Mercedes. MD MI MN MO NC NH NJ NV NY OH OK OR PA TN TX UT VA VT WA WI Share of sales in state by manufacturer 0% 69%

Figure 5. Top 30 provinces/states in total sales and their market share by manufacturer in China and United States, 2017. Color is indexed to the market share number, with lighter colors representing smaller market share.

4 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION WORKING PAPER 2019-10 COMPARISON OF THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

MARKET SHARE BY TECHNOLOGY PATH In China, the sales and model availabil- ity of BEVs are far greater than PHEVs, 32% but there is not a significant difference Beijing Tianjin Taiyuan in the market development of these Shijiazhuang Lanzhou Linyi Qingdao two technologies in the United States. 68% Xi‘an

Nanjing Nantong Hefei Wuhu Shanghai As a result of China’s promotion of Chengdu Chongqing Wuhu Changsha SALES Huzhou Ningbo BEVs as a major strategy in the restruc- Hangzhou Xiangtan Nanchang Yichun turing of the automobile industry, their Zhuzhou 15% Kunming Guangzhou sales and availability far outweighing Xiamen 0.1% BEV Shenzhen PHEVs. As shown in Figure 6, BEV PHEV 1% Haikou sales were more than twice the sales South China 5% Sea Islands of PHEV in China, and the number of 85% BEV models in the market was more 10% than five times that of PHEV’s in 2015. MODELS The consumer preference for BEVs Figure 6. New 2015 plug-in hybrid and battery electric car shares in 30 leading Chinese cities. grew in 2017 with 83% of sales being BEVs and 17% being PHEVs. The dif- ference in model availability between BEVs and PHEVs got smaller in 2017 Seattle (Figure 8). The very small number of Portland Boston FCVs comes from SAIC’s 950, Minneapolis Detroit with its limited production and sales 37% New York Chicago Philadelphia Pittsburgh Baltimore in Shanghai. San Francisco Columbus Washington 63% San Jose Cincinnati Denver Kansas City St. Louis In comparison, although some U.S. Las Vegas Charlotte Los Angeles states and cities offer incentives for Riverside SALES Atlanta BEVs and PHEVs., the two technolo- San Diego Phoenix gies had comparable sales and model availability (Figure 7 and Figure 9). Austin Houston Tampa The U,S, PHEV market grew in in 0.1% BEV 48% 52% PHEV Miami model availability and sales between 1% 2015 and 2017. In 2017, BEV and PHEV 5% approximately split the market share 10% evenly, but the model availability of MODELS PHEV outweighed that of BEV’s. Figure 7. New 2015 plug-in hybrid and battery electric car shares in 30 leading U.S. metropolitan areas. At the city-level, the sales of BEVs out- weighed that of PHEVs in 27 out of manufacturers, with SAIC in Shanghai, the difference was less remarkable the 30 target cities in China in 2015. BYD in Shenzhen and one of BYD’s than in 2015. Most of the U.S. target The sales of PHEVs were more than major manufacturing base in Xi’an. In cities had similar shares of BEVs and BEVs only in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and 2017, only Shanghai and Shenzhen had PHEVs in 2017. Only San Jose shows a Xi’an. These cities all have local PHEV higher sales in PHEVs than BEVs, and slightly higher PHEV share than BEV.

WORKING PAPER 2019-10 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION 5 COMPARISON OF THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

0.01% FCV

16.93% Beijing Baoding Taiyuan Jining Qingdao HezeLinyi Lanzhou Xi‘an Xingtai Weifang Hefei Nanjing Zhengzhou Shanghai 83.06% Wuhan Jinhua Chengdu Chongqing Huzhou Ningbo SALES Liuzhou Nanchang Kunming Nanning Xiamen 2% FCV

0.1% BEV Shenzhen 23% Haikou 1% PHEV 5%

75% 10% South China Sea Islands

MODELS

Figure 8. New 2017 plug-in hybrid and battery electric car shares in 30 leading Chinese cities.

Seattle

Portland

Boston

Minneapolis Detroit 49% New York Chicago Philadelphia Pittsburgh Sacramento Baltimore San Jose Columbus Washington

51% Cincinnati San Francisco Denver Kansas City St. Louis

Las Vegas Los Angeles Charlotte Riverside San Diego Atlanta SALES Phoenix

Austin Houston Tampa 0.1% BEV 36% Miami PHEV 64% 1% 5%

10% MODELS

Figure 9. New 2017 plug-in hybrid and battery electric car shares in 30 leading U.S. metropolitan areas.

6 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION WORKING PAPER 2019-10 COMPARISON OF THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

MARKET SHARE BY BEV PHEV VEHICLE SEGMENT Cars Cars Zhidou E20 Cloud 100 BAIC EV200 BYD QIN OEM Figure 10 through Figure 13 illustrate BAIC the China and U.S. BEV and PHEV BYD Chery markets in 2015 and 2017, categorized by vehicle size.1 In China, the BEV sector JAC JMC was dominated by microcars, which Kandi are often cheaper and have a shorter Lifan JAC Lifan 330 iEV5 Kandi K11 Kandi EV Chery eQ Others electric range than other models. In EV SAIC 2017, approximately 68% of BEV sales Roewe e550 JAC Denza iREV Zhidou were microcars. Cars accounted for EV Zotye 27%, and SUVs, MPVs and took up the rest 5%. The numbers are similar in Zhidou D2 JMC Lifan Kandi K10 E100 620 2015. The vehicle segment composition SUV of the PHEV sector looked similar to BYD Tang that of the U.S., with over 75% of sales Jiangnan T11 SUV & MPV BYD E6 being cars and the rest being SUVs.

In contrast, the market segments Figure 10. Vehicle segments of BEVs and PHEVs by sales in China, 2015. for both battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles are similar in the United BEV PHEV States, with cars contributing to over Microcars Cars Cars 80% of the total sales. BAIC EC Series OEM Zhidou D2 JAC EV BYD E5 BYD Qin OEM iEV6E BAIC BYD SUVs took up a larger portion of the Changan Chery PHEV market in China than in the Roew e Dongfeng United States. Three SUV models, the Geely BAIC EU ei6 SAIC Roewe eRX5, the BYD Song, and Series JAC Jiangnan the BYD Tang, represented over half JMC of the PHEV sales in China in 2017. In SAIC Chery eQ1 Benben Kandi Oulove SUVs , MPVs & Vans Others the U.S., SUV models only accounted K12 Roewe BYD for about 15% of the total PHEV sales Denza eRX5 Song JMC E200 in 2017. JMC E100 Junfeng E100 ER30 Kandi There are many more players in the K17 BEV market than the PHEV market Zotye E200 SUVs , MPVs & Vans in China, while in the U.S. the differ- Zotye BYD E6 Cloud100 Zhima BYD Tang E30 ence is not so significant. The ten most BAIC EX popular BEV models were 59% of the Series

BEV sales in China in 2017, while in Figure 11. Vehicle segments of BEVs and PHEVs by sales in China, 2017. the United States, the top ten BEV models represented approximately PHEV market was dominated by a few The market share of the top ten BEV 97% of the total sales. In contrast, the brands in China, namely SAIC and BYD, models decreased from about 80% to which contributed to over 90% of the 59% in 2017 in China. More players and 1 The passenger vehicles are categorized into total PHEV market share in both 2015 models emerged and became popular, three major segments: microcars, cars and SUV, and 2017. such as the several models from BAIC, and MPV and vans, based on the common Euro car segment used in China. Cars are divided JMC and JAC. For PHEV, although BYD into six segments from A to F, with generally In 2017, both the BEV and PHEV markets and SAIC still dominated the market, increasing , displacement in China became more fragmented there were more model availability, and other metrics. The A segment is further divided, with those with a wheelbase smaller in 2017, with the previously dominant and SAIC eroded BYD’s dominant than 2.3 meters (A00) classified a . brands taking up less market share. market share. The U.S. market tends to

WORKING PAPER 2019-10 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION 7 COMPARISON OF THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

be steadier, with a bit more offerings in BEV PHEV the PHEV sector in 2017. Cars Cars Model S i3 Volt Fusion BMW The market share of the SUV segment Chevrolet grew for both PHEV and BEV in 2017 Fiat from 2015 in both countries. In China, Ford the market share of SUV, MPV and vans Honda Hyundai in 2017 was 14%, this is an increase Kia from 10% in 2015. The growth in the Mercedes 500e e-Golf Mitsubishi United States. was more significant Nissan than in China: the market share was 2% Porsche in 2015 and grew to 16% in 2017. C-Max Prius i8 i8 Tesla Leaf Toyota Volkswagen Spark Focus

ELR B-Class Soul

Microcars SUVs and Vans SUVs and Vans Cayenne X5

Figure 12. Vehicle segments of BEVs and PHEVs by sales in the United States, 2015.

BEV PHEV Cars Cars

Model S Volt Prius Prime OEM Audi BMW Chevrolet Chrysler Fiat Ford 500e e-Golf Kia Mercedes Nissan Fusion Energi i3 REx A3 Bolt Tesla Toyota Volkswagen Soul EV 330e Volvo C-Max Energi Others

i3 530e

SUVsModel and X Vans Microcars SUVs and Vans X5 xDrive40e Pacifica XC90 PHEV T8 Twin Engine

Figure 13. Vehicle segments of BEVs and PHEVs by sales in the United States, 2017.

8 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION WORKING PAPER 2019-10 COMPARISON OF THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

MODEL AVAILABILITY New 2017 electric vehicle sales San Jose, CA Better model availability gives con- 12% sumers more choices and can increase 1,000 20,000 40,000 competition in the electric vehicle 10% market. It is often seen as an impor- tant factor in electric vehicle market 8% uptake. Figure 14 and Figure 15 show the relationship between model avail- San Francisco, CA ability (x axis), market share (y axis) 6% and market size (circle size) in the Los Angeles, CA 2 San Diego, CA

United States and China in 2017. Data Electric vehicle share 4% from 2015 shows similar patterns. Seattle, WA Sacramento, CA Portland, OR Riverside, CA 2% Boston, MA There is no clear link visually between Salt Lake Denver, CO Washington, DC City, UT Tampa, FL New York, NY model availability and electric vehicle Richmond, Miami, FL VA Dallas, TX market share in China. Cities with higher 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 market share and sales, such as Tianjin, Model availability (at least 20 sales) Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Beijing tend to have more available Figure 14. Market share of new electric vehicles and model availability in 30 models, but cities with more models leading Chinese cities by market share in 2017. available do not necessarily have high market share. Moreover, there are cities New 2017 electric vehicle sales with limited model availability but still 12% have relatively high electric vehicle Tianjin market share, such as Liuzhou. 1,000 20,000 40,000 10% Liuzhou Hangzhou Weifang In the United States, metropolitan Beijing areas with more models available 8% tend to have relatively higher electric Shanghai Shenzhen vehicle sales and sales share. The top Nanchang Xiamen Qingdao 5 areas by market size, accounting for 6% almost half of the total national sales were also the top 5 in terms of model Changsha

Electric vehicle share 4% Guangzhou availability, with 28 to 37 models. Nanjing Zhengzhou Hefei There are generally more models in 2% Lanzhou Chongqing Xi’an the U.S. metropolitan areas than the Haikou Heze Chengdu Linyi Baoding Chinese cities, with an average of 17 0% and 13, respectively. In addition, the 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 leading 5 cities in China had 19 to Model availability (at least 20 sales) 23 models available, versus 28 to 37 models available in the United States. Figure 15. Market share of new electric vehicles and model availability in 30 leading U.S. metropolitan areas by market share in 2017.

2 Model availability is defined as the number of models that has at least 20 new registrations to filter out those that are not widely available to the public.

WORKING PAPER 2019-10 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION 9 COMPARISON OF THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

Technical characteristics In China, seven of the top ten BEV The features of the plug-in hybrid SUV of electric cars models in 2017 were cheaper, shorter- models in the two markets are very range microcars. In the United States, different. The BMW X5 offers a very nine of the top ten selling BEVs are short electric-range at relatively high TOP MODELS all cars, with only one SUV - the Tesla energy consumption, as a compromise Figure 16 and Figure 17 show the ten Model X. The three best-selling U,S. to all the luxury features of the vehicle. best-selling BEV and PHEV models models all have longer-than-average Priced at more than $60,000, it was along with their market share in China range (over 200 miles. one of the most expensive models and the United States in 2015 and 2017. among the top 10 list. The Chrysler Three SUV models, the SAIC Roewe Pacifica, the first electric in the Consumers in China tend to prefer eRX5, the BYD Song, and the BYD United States, was newly released cheaper and shorter-range microcar Tang, represented over half of the in 2017 and priced at a little bit over BEVs, but plug-in hybrid SUVs, while PHEV sales in China in 2017. In the $40,000. By comparison, all three SUV U.S. consumers prefer cars for both United States, the BMW X5 xDrive models in China had a longer all-elec- BEVs and PHEVs. The top BEV models 40e and the Chrysler Pacifica, the only tric range than the U.S. models and tend to have a longer range, and PHEVs two SUV models in the top ten list, cost less. Both of BYD’s models have a tend to have a shorter all-electric range accounted for only about 10% of the 50-mile (80km) all-electric range. The in the United States than in China. total PHEV sales in 2017. BYD Song is priced as low as around

BEV PHEV BEV PHEV �HDB�DH��A����A���CBH�D���B�BBHAD���DDHB�AB�DH �HDB�DH��A����AA�� �CBH�D���B�BBBAD���DDHB�DA�DH �BBM�MBGGEICA�IAA�9EBHJABGMAM�BIAA�BADBEAB�BHB �BBM�MBGGEICA�3IAA �9EBHJABGMAM�BIAA�BADBEAB�BHB ����A �BABC� A�� 18.3% 18.0% EC series 20.3% ��5��A� ��DEAJ D2 ���A�DI 50.1% 8.0% �CBEH���C�B��� 0��ADIAEI 12.0% 5.5% 5JBPBABB20.0%5P ��5����� -BBGQ I�HCBIEAIA 23.5% �����A���� 4.7% 10.8% ���AIP 2�����CH�1BB� 4.4% ���A6AI20.0% C ���BA� 20.5% 9.4%K11 ��DBQAQ��

4.3% ���A�B14.0%IC ���BA�K10 �BEHD��CBH�D 7.7% 5.9% 01�AI�BB 6���A5ABP5JB8.8%PB 3.9% ���BA�A� 6���A5ABP5JBPBB 6.5% �AJQB I�BB 4.2% �BHDE� -�� �AJ�OH�D -�P eQ 3.7% 2.0% 4.9% �11A5� �BABC� D2 ��DICIC �BBIBI 1.7% 6���A5ABP5JBPB 4.5% 3.0% ��5� 1.7% E6 ����AI�A6BADBB 3.5% 6���A5ABP5JBPBB -A��� 330EV 2.9% 1.7% 2.6% �BEHD��CBH�D 2M�DBA�AEHJA 2M�DBA�AEHJA 20.3% 41.3% 5.6%

2015 2017

Figure 16. Best-selling BEV and PHEV models in China, 2015 and 2017. Model names with the same color belong to the same manufacturer.

BEV BEV PHEV PHEV HEDC DEFFCCAE3-KC3 -FFEFDEDFFEC�CCFEHAFEECED�AFE �BFG�FBCC5FF3�BH3E�8BCF3FF83GCB5F3EFFGBG3BCFFB �BFG�FBCC5FF3�BBH3 E�8BCF3FF83GCC5F3EFFFBG3FBFFB HEDC DEFFCCAEHKCEHFFEFDEADFEC�ECFEHAFCECED�AFE

CFFC22.0%

35.7% 36.2% H�CG 28.8% Model S 3HAKDE3F3HA Model S 21.9% ��HF�FCBFB22.6%FFB 23.5% �KKCFAFECEFAE �5FFFF3�BF� 10.4% 23.5% ���F�3KFBFFB � 0A�NKCEFE� 8.8% 17.6% HFFC ���3515.0%� H00EC�E��FC�EN��H �5FG3�GGB �FE�F 5.1% 7.5% 9.7% 17.3% 0FFEFEC H00EC�EAK� H�CGF�FFBF3B���C� 4.8% 5.8% ���35�

5.3% 12.1% ��F�HOEFC3AHC�3GA �CB�F�CBEC3�FFG 4.5% ��CEF8B3�FBBFFB �CADACE�KE� 3.4% 2.7% �CACE���E5.1% H00E���E �BF8E8BF3��8CFFF CFFCB�AMECEE ,FC� 3.9% 2.6% �F85CCF83B�� 3.6% 2.4% �CAE�FK5FKC H00E���E� ��CE3��8�FC8HF8GF58 2.2% 3.4% 2.2% ���35� �FFHE�FGKDFKFKGCFCG EKKCEA�E��FFC�5GFHE CFHF 1.8% 3.2% 3EFFGEG� 2.1% H00EC� 1.9% 1.8% �C�EFEHFHEFD �5F33��C3CH 0GCBF3E�8BCC -FEFAE �FAFCC�EHAC 12% 2% 1.1% 1.4% 0GCBF3E�8BCC �C�EFEHFHEFD 0.5% 4.5%

2015 2017 Figure 17. Best-selling BEV and PHEV models in the U.S., 2015 and 2017. Model names with the same color belong to the same manufacturer.

10 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION WORKING PAPER 2019-10 COMPARISON OF THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

$26,000 after subsidy and the BYD 80 China Tang as low as around $35,500 after Market size (sales) subsidy. The Roewe eRX5 from SAIC has a 37-mile (60km) all-electric range 60 5,000 10,000 25,000 and is priced as low as about $29,000 after central subsidy. 40 Car Microcar SUV 20 PERFORMANCE METRICS BEV

Battery capacity (kWh) PHEV The distribution of two technical speci- 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 fications, electric driving range and All-electric range (mile) battery capacity, of plug-in electric US cars in China and the United States are 80 shown in Figure 18 and Figure 19. In both countries, there are more models 60 covering wider performance metrics in 2017 compared to 2015, but the distri- 40 Car bution patterns of the metrics differ. Microcar SUV 20 Compared with 2015, there has been BEV

Battery capacity (kWh) PHEV major developments in the offerings 0 of battery electric vehicles with differ- 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 ent vehicle type and range. In China, All-electric range (mile) although microcars with a range of Figure 18. All-electric range and battery capacity of BEV and PHEV models in China and approximately 100-miles continue to the United States, 2015. be popular, there are considerable 100 sales in higher-range cars and SUVs. China The BYD E6, with an electric range 80 300km of around 250 miles, became more 250km popular among Chinese consumers. 200km In the United States, there are more 60 models with a range slightly over 100 150km Car miles, and at a higher range around 100km Microcar 40 SUVs, MPV 250 miles, such as the and vans and the Chevrolet Bolt. BEV 20 Battery capacity (kWh) PHEV Similar to the trend for BEV, in 2017, FCV there were more PHEV models and 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 range to choose from. In China, there All-electric range (mile) were a variety of models ranging from 100 30 miles to 72 miles in 2017, while in US Market size (sales) 2015, consumers had a limited choice of PHEV models available, and no 80 model had an all-electric range of 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 over 50 miles. In 2017, In the United 60 States, although the range of most PHEV models is still mostly under 50 40 Car miles, there are more models available Microcar in 2017. 20 SUVs BEV Battery capacity (kWh) As shown in the figures below, the PHEV 0 distribution pattern of model feature 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 clusters corresponds with the design All-electric range (mile) of the central new energy vehicle Figure 19. All-electric range and battery capacity of BEV and PHEV models in China and the United States, 2017.

WORKING PAPER 2019-10 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION 11 COMPARISON OF THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

subsidies in China. The Chinese BEVs electric mileage coverages of battery automakers have robust nationwide are clustered at 150km or above, in electric cars in the two markets were distribution and dealership networks. 50km increments, and PHEVs are very close -- ranging from about 50 shown to have an all-electric range of miles to up to 300 miles. Compared In China, the sales and model availabil- 50km around 31 miles or more. BEVs to the Chinese PHEV market, the U.S. ity of BEVs are far greater than PHEVs, while in the U.S. market, there is not a are eligible for three subsidy tiers market had more PHEV models with significant difference between the sales depending on electric range and other lower all-electric range. performance metrics, and only PHEVs and availability of two technologies. This with a 50km all-electric range or above bias in sales towards BEVs increased can receive subsidy. For example, a Conclusions between 2015 and 2017 in China, while in the United States, the PHEV market BEV with a minimum range of 150km In both Chinese and U.S. markets, con- grew both in model number and sales. and a battery energy density between sumers in a handful of cities make up 90 and 120 Wh/kg would receive the the majority of electric car sales, and There are many more manufacturers in second tier of subsidy of 360 thousand a few cities are very successful in pro- the BEV market than the PHEV market yuan in 2017. This is a major leap from moting electric vehicles. The top 30 in China. Both sectors became more the first-tier level of 200 thousand cities in electric car market share in fragmented in 2017, with the previously yuan given to BEVs with electric both countries contribute to over 70% dominant brands taking up less market mileage above 100km with the same of the total national electric car market share. In the United States. the differ- battery energy density. The third tier is in 2017, while making up approximately ence between the two technologies applied to BEVs with a minimum range 40% of the passenger vehicle sales. is not so significant, and the market of 250km, where there is also a cluster tends to be steadier with a bit more of models slightly above that range. In both countries, a small number offerings in the PHEV sector in 2017. of vehicle manufacturers contribute The U.S. BEV data present a distinct to the majority of the electric car Microcars, which are cheaper and have bipolar distribution in terms of electric market share. Less than 10 brands a shorter all-electric range, continue car driving range, with one peak at made up approximately 90% of the to dominate the BEV market in China. around 50-130 miles and the other at total electric car market share in both Sales of SUVs took up a larger portion around 250 miles primarily driven by countries in 2015 and 2017. In China, of the PHEV market in China than in the three Tesla models and Chevrolet these are all domestic brands or joint the United States. The market share of Bolt. Nothing is available in between. ventures with foreign brands, while a the SUV segment grew for both PHEV The U.S. federal income tax credit for share of the electric and and BEV in 2017 from 2015 in both BEVs scales based on battery capacity. countries. To receive the maximum $7,500 incen- sales in the United States are imports. In China, BAIC overtook BYD and tive the vehicle must have a 16kWh There is no clear link between model became the leading brand in 2017, and battery. All BEVs shown here qualify availability and electric vehicle market for the maximum credit. Compared to traditional vehicle manufacturers such share in China, while in the United the Chinese market, U.S. consumers as Dongfeng and Changan started States, areas with more models avail- prefer BEVs with longer electric range. to take up a larger market share. In able tend to have relatively higher Many PHEVs have less than 16kWh the United States, Tesla had the most electric vehicle sales and sales share. battery capacities, and thus are not sales of any brand in both 2015 and The United States generally had more eligible for the full $7500 income tax 2017, taking up about a quarter of the models available than China in leading credit. However, many states such as total market share. metropolitan areas in 2017, with an California offer access to high-occu- average of 17 and 13 models, respec- Regional market shares by manufac- pancy lanes to PHEVs, which can be a tively . This phenomenon was similar turer in the United States and China valuable benefit to some drivers. in 2015. This warrants further analysis present very different patterns. In on potential confounding factors and In general, manufacturers selling BEVs China, brands tend to perform better how model availability affects electric in China provided a greater diversity in markets where they are headquar- vehicle uptake in China. of car models in terms of all-electric tered or have a manufacturing facility. range than manufacturers selling In the United States, leading models In both countries, there are more BEVs in the United States. The overall are similar across states as most models covering a wider range of

12 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION WORKING PAPER 2019-10 COMPARISON OF THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

performance metrics in 2017 compared References Cobb, J (2018, Jan 4). December 2017 to 2015, but the distribution patterns dashboard. Hybridcars. Retrieved China Association of Automobile of the metrics are different in the from http://www.hybridcars.com/ Manufacturers. (2018, January 11). 2017 december-2017-dashboard/ two countries. In China, the distribu- 年汽车工业经济运行情况 [Economic tion pattern of model clusters cor- performance of the automobile Marklines (2015). USA - Flash report, responds with the design of central industry in 2017]. Retrieved from sales volume, 2015. Retrieved subsidy, with BEVs clustered at 150km http://www.caam.org.cn/xiehuidong- from https://www.marklines. or above in 50km increments, and tai/20180111/1605214622.html com/en/statistics/flash_sales/ salesfig_usa_2015 PHEVs all having an all-electric range EV Sales (2018). Tracking plug-in car sales of 50km (around 31 miles) or more. all over the world [aggregated sales Marlines (2017). USA - Flash report, sales The U.S. BEV data present a distinct data]. Retrieved from http://ev-sales. volume, 2017. Retrieved from https:// bipolar distribution in terms of electric blogspot.com/ www.marklines.com/en/statistics/ car driving range, with one peak at flash_sales/salesfig_usa_2017 EV Volumes (2018). Global plug-in vehicle around 50-130 miles and the other at sales for 2017 – final results [blog post]. Lutsey, N., Slowik, P., & Jin, L. (2016). around 250 miles, primarily driven by Retrieved from http://www.ev-volumes. Sustaining electric vehicle the three Tesla models and Chevrolet com/news/global-plug-in-vehicle-sales- market growth in U.S. cities. Bolt. Nothing is available in between. for-2017-final-results/ Retrieved from the International All of the U.S. BEVs analyzed here in He, H., Jin, L., Cui, H., & Zhou, H. (2018). Council on Clean Transportation both years were designed to receive Assessment of electric car promotion https://www.theicct.org/ the maximum federal tax credit, while policies in Chinese cities. Retrieved leading-us-city-electric-vehicle-2016 many of the PHEVs have less than from the International Council on Clean Slowik, P., & Lutsey, N. The contin- 16kWh battery capacities, and so are Transportation https://www.theicct.org/ ued transition to electric vehicles not eligible for the full $7500 credit. publications/assessment-electric-car- in U.S. cities. Retrieved from Many consumers bought the vehicles promotion-policies-chinese-cities the International Council on for other benefits, such as access to Hybridcars (2018). December 2017 dash- Clean Transportation https:// high-occupancy lanes, which is offered board. Retrieved from http://www. hybrid- www.theicct.org/publications/ by some states. cars.com/december-2017-dashboard/ continued-EV-transition-us-cities-2018

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