Comparison of the Electric Car Market in China and the United States
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WORKING PAPER 2019-10 Comparison of the electric car market in China and the United States Authors: Lingzhi Jin, Hui He Date: May 2019 Keywords: electric vehicle; market; China; United States Introduction intends to shed light in the uniqueness The analysis focuses on passenger and similarities in the two market, and electric vehicles (interchangeably In 2017, global electric passenger car show their market characteristics and with electric car). sales passed one million units, and trends over the three-year period. It approximately every seven out of also acts as an update to our 2015 ten of them were sold in China or the report (He, Jin, Cui & Zhou, 2018) on Market characters of electric United States (EV Volumes, 2018). the electric passenger vehicle market cars in the U.S. and China As the two largest national electric in China. vehicle markets, the countries both OVERALL MARKET TREND have a remarkable electric car growth The new vehicle registration data was over the past few years and very obtained from industry websites, two Both nations experienced remarkable dynamic market environment. previous ICCT papers (Lutsey, Slowik growth of electric car sales in the past & Jin, 2016; Slowik & Lutsey, 2018) and decade. The U.S. market took off in This briefing, part one of a two-paper the China Automotive Technology and early 2010s, approximately two years series, compares the market and tech- Research Center. These data contain earlier than in China. But China’s nological characteristics of electric national aggregate data and detailed market grew at much faster pace, cars in China and the United States, local data for major U.S. metropolitan especially after 2014. The growth rate based on 2015 and 2017 data. It areas and over 300 Chinese cities. in the United States slowed down after 2013 compared to the previous two 600,000 years but remained steady. US China Since 2013, China has accomplished 500,000 a phenomenal growth of new energy vehicle (NEV) sales, namely battery 400,000 electric (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV), and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). With an annual growth rate of at least 300,000 45% for six consecutive years from 2012 to 2017, China emerged as an 200,000 evident leader among major electric vehicle markets globally. In 2017, new Electric car annual new sales 100,000 electric car sales in China reached over 500,000. It contributed to almost half of 0 the total sales worldwide, and more than 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 twice the sales in the U.S. In the U.S., Figure 1. Historical annual sales of plug-in electric passenger vehicles in China and the growth in NEV sales remained steady United States (2010–2017). Sales data is based on EV Sales (2018); EV Volumes (2018); at between 20% to 30%, with the total Hybridcars (2018); CAAM (2018). sales of around 190,000 in 2017. © INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION, 2019 WWW.THEICCT.ORG COMPARISON OF THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES Electric car sales and passenger vehicle sales in 2017. These Providence and Kansas City joined market share in leading numbers were similar in 2015. the list in 2017, while Indianapolis and Dallas dropped out. In China, seven Chinese cities More leading cities had a higher cities changed between the two years. electric car market share in China than The thirty leading cities in electric car For example, Taiyuan and Dalian market share in China and the United in the United States, while China’s dropped out of the list and Lanzhou States based on 2015 and 2017 data national average uptake was slightly and Baoding were added in 2017. One are shown in Figure 2. In both markets, lower in 2017. The average market caveat is Weifang, who ranks high in the majority of the electric car sales penetration of electric cars in these the list in 2017. The insurance data are concentrated in a small number of cities is approximately 4.5% and 2%, on which the sales number are based cities. In China, the top 30 cities col- significantly greater than the national do not properly reflect the sales in lectively represented 72% of the total average of 0.9% and 1.2% in China and that city, and the real sales number national electric car market in 2017, the United States, respectively. are lower. This is due to the differ- while contributing to only 36% of the ence in subsidies in different prov- passenger vehicle sales in 2017. In the The leading cities in the United States inces. Dealers in Shandong, which had United States, the top 30 cities made have remained relatively consis- no subsidies, chose to get insurance up about 74% of the total electric car tent, with the only change being the locally but obtain license in other sales, while contributing to 42% of the two cities on lower part of the list: places in order to obtain subsidies. China US 2015 2017 2015 2017 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%12% 14% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%14% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%12% 14% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%12% 14% Shanghai Tianjin San Jose San Jose Shenzhen Hangzhou San Francisco San Francisco Hangzhou Liuzhou Los Angeles Los Angeles Guangzhou Weifang San Diego San Diego Qingdao Beijing Atlanta Sacramento Beijing Shanghai Sacramento Seattle Changsha Shenzhen Seattle Portland Tianjin Qingdao Portland Riverside Linyi Nanchang Riverside Denver Wuhan Xiamen Austin Boston Ningbo Jining Salt Lake City Washington Kunming Changsha Nashville Hartford Xiamen Guangzhou Denver New York Xi’an Nanjing Phoenix Phoenix Nanchang Zhengzhou Washington Austin Chongqing Wuhan Indianapolis Salt Lake City Taiyuan Ningbo Boston Baltimore Zhengzhou Kunming Las Vegas Las Vegas Xingtai Hefei Hartford Providence Weifang Chongqing New York Raleigh Dalian Jinhua Raleigh Philadelphia Nanjing Xi’an Miami Minneapolis Chengdu Lanzhou Philadelphia Atlanta Jinhua Xingtai Baltimore Chicago Handan Nanning Tampa Detroit Shijiazhuang Heze Chicago Nashville Nantong Linyi Detroit Miami Hefei Haikou Dallas Tampa Changzhou Baoding Columbus Kansas City Foshan Chengdu Minneapolis Columbus Figure 2. Electric car market share in the top 30 cities in China and the United States, 2015 and 2017. For China, cities with over 100,000 electric vehicle sales are shown to exclude small cities with only a few electric vehicles but a relatively high share. 2 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION WORKING PAPER 2019-10 COMPARISON OF THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES MARKET SHARE BY BRAND Lifan Others Others In both countries, a small number of 2% Dongfeng Chery 10% 11% BAIC 3% brands contribute to the majority of 4% BYD 21% the electric car market share. Less 26% Changan 4% than 10 brands made up 90% or more JAC 4% of the total electric car market share JAC SAIC 6% in both countries in both years. In 7% China, these are all domestic brands JMC BYD 7% (some formed joint ventures with BAIC 17% 8% Kandi Jiangnan foreign brands), while the U.S. is 15% 7% more open to international brands. Zotye 9% SAIC Geely Zhidou 11% 13% In 2015, there were 23 electric car 15% manufacturers in China, with the 9 largest making up about 90% of Figure 3. Electric car brand market shares in China, 2015 and 2017. the total sales (Figure 3). In 2017, although the total number of brands Mercedes Others increased to 34, the 9 largest compa- 5% Toyota 2% Kia nies still made up about 89% of the 3% 2% Chrysler Others total sales. In 2017, BAIC overtook Volkswagen 2% Tesla 9% Tesla 4% Fiat BYD and became the leading brand, 23% 24% Fiat 3% and traditional vehicle manufactur- 5% Nissan ers such as Dongfeng and Changan 6% started to take up a larger electric BMW vehicle market share. Some Zhidou 12% BMW vehicles were produced under Geely 10% Ford and others under Jiangnan in 2017. 16% In addition, Zotye was registered Ford Chevrolet Nissan 23% under Jiangnan and Kandi was regis- 15% 10% tered under Geely. These changes are Chevrolet Toyota 15% 11% probably due to strategy changes within an auto group or partnership. Figure 4. Electric car brand market shares in the United States, 2015 and 2017. In the United States, Tesla remained market share in 2017 compared to electric SUVs. Its π1 has been very the leading brand in both 2015 and 2015, and Volkswagen and Mercedes popular among consumers since its 2017, with about a quarter of the total dropped off of the top 9 list. release. Technology companies are market share (Figure 4). Chevrolet also entering the electric car market, moved from third to second place In China, conventional vehicle manu- sometimes choose to partner with in 2017, with about half of its sales facturers, such as BAIC, SAIC, BYD, traditional vehicle manufacturers. coming from its Bolt model. Toyota JAC and JMC, account for most of For example, Xiaopeng Automotive acquired a market share of 11% in 2017 the electric car market share. There Technology was the first technology with its Prius Prime, up from only 3% are a number of new electric vehicle company to be able to mass-produce in 2015, ranking behind Chevrolet. manufacturers emerging, such as electric vehicles with a partnership Nissan, BMW and Ford all lost some Yudo, which focuses on battery with Haima. WORKING PAPER 2019-10 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION 3 COMPARISON OF THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES LEADING MANUFACTURERS BAIC BYD Changan Chery Dongfeng Geely JAC Jiangnan JMC SAIC Others Anhui BY REGION Beijing Chongqing Figure 5 shows the market share Fujian of specific electric vehicle man- Gansu ufacturers in each province or Guangdong Guangxi state in 2017.