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Global Alternative Propulsion Outlook & Analysis

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Global Alternative Propulsion Outlook & Analysis Global Alternative Propulsion Outlook & Analysis Brian Maxim, Vice President, Global Powertrain Forecasting 855.734.4590 ext. 1004 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 2 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 Global Light Vehicle Production by Fuel Type Other Fuels EREV Fuel Cell 2010 0.45% 2020 0.15% Hybrid - Gas EV 0.01% Hybrid - Gas 0.95% 0.03% Diesel Diesel 3.70% 18.94% 16.98% Other Fuels 0.42% EREV 0.00% Gas Hybrid - Diesel 79.63% Fuel Cell Gas Hybrid - Diesel 0.00% EV 0.00% 76.55% 0.25% 1.93% Fuel Cell EREV Other Fuels 2025 2017 0.00% 0.16% 0.47% Fuel Cell Diesel Hybrid - Gas Hybrid - Gas 0.01% 18.45% 2.72% EREV Diesel 4.82% 0.15% 16.30% Other Fuels 0.48% Hybrid - Diesel Gas 0.22% Hybrid - Diesel EV 77.15% Gas 0.31% EV 74.98% 2.94% 0.83% Source: AutoForecast Solutions – May 2018 3 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 Global Engine Volumes -By Major Configuration 120 Top 4 Engine Configurations 100 80 60 40 Volume (Millions) Volume 20 0 I4 I3 V6 V8 I3 Total I3 By Region 14 8 12 +41% 10 6 8 4 6 4 2 Volume (Millions) Volume 2 (Millions) Volume 0 0 4 AP WE EE NA SA Source: AutoForecast Solutions – May 2018 4 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 Global Engine Trends • Programs gravitating down similar paths • Smaller engine programs looking fairly similar • 2.0L I4 GDI Turbo • Still replacing smaller V6s • Offered as upgrade to non-turbo 2.0L • 1.5L GDI Turbo • Some are 1.4L or 1.6L • Replacing larger I4s • 1.0L GDI Turbo • Replacing medium and small I3/I4s • 3.0L 6-cylinder with GDI • 3.0L is a global approach • Fiat Chrysler (FCA), GM and Ford differ slightly • V8s diverge • Reserved more for sports cars and truck based vehicles • Non-NA assemblers were first to choose GDI • NA assemblers going different paths, embracing different technologies 5 5 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 Accelerated Global GDI Adoption 14 Turbocharged GDI Adoption 12 10 8 6 4 VOLUME (MILLIONS) 2 0 AP NA WE EE ME/A SA GDI Adoption Gasoline Turbo Adoption 15 20 10 10 5 0 0 VOLUME (MILLIONS) VOLUME (MILLIONS) AP NA WE EE SA ME/A AP NA WE EE ME/A SA Source: AutoForecast Solutions – May 2018 6 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 Light Vehicle Diesel Volume Analysis Global Diesel 20 18 Growth in Asia and North 16 America 14 • India and China lead the way 12 • Europe now shrinking 10 • Growth in North America 8 6 Volume (Millions) Volume 4 2 North America 0 1,150 1,100 AP WE EE NA ME/A SA 1,050 1,000 North America adding applications Volume (000) 950 • Small diesels on full-sized pickups • Car applications now shrinking 900 Fuel and purchase price cost pressures still a factor 7 Source: AutoForecast Solutions – May 2018 7 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 8 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 Global Transmission Trends - By Type TRANSMISSION TYPE Manuals still dominate, but 2025 shrinking Manual • Europe and developing markets now 2017 40% shifting to non-manual options 2010 Automatic 43% 28% • DCTs and CVTs gaining ground 31% 55% 35% • Traditional automatics hang on by using newer technologies 3%7% 11% 15% 17% DCT 15% CVT 50% Global Share by Type 40% 30% 20% Global Share 10% 0% Man Auto DCT CVT 9 Source: AutoForecast Solutions – May 2018 9 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 Global Automatic Adoption - Traditional Automatics Regional Consumption Volumes 14 Influenced by North America and 12 Europe 10 • Asia Volumes mostly from China • North America prefers the traditional 8 automatic 6 • Europe prefers manuals and DCTs, 4 keeping volumes low 2 VOLUME (MILLIONS) 0 Automatic Share of Region 30% AP NA WE EE SA ME/A 25% 20% 15% 10% Global Share Global 5% 0% AP NA WE EE SA ME 10 Source: AutoForecast Solutions – May 2018 10 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 Global CVT Adoption Regional Consumption Volumes 14 Strong Japanese Influence 12 • Asia volumes initiated with Japan but 10 now significantly growing due to China 8 • North America is a result of Japan • Europe prefer DCTs and automatics 6 4 2 VOLUME (MILLIONS) 0 CVT Share of Region 25% AP NA EE WE ME/A SA 20% 15% 10% Global Share Global 5% 0% NA AP EE WE ME/A SA 11 Source: AutoForecast Solutions – May 2018 11 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 Global DCT Adoption 12 Regional Consumption Volumes Strong European Influence 10 • Asia Volumes mostly from China 8 • Europe volumes fairly low due to preferring manuals 6 • North America influenced some by 4 Europe VOLUME (MILLIONS) 2 0 DCT Share of Region 25% AP WE EE NA SA ME/A 20% 15% 10% Global Share Global 5% 0% WE EE AP NA SA ME/A 12 Source: AutoForecast Solutions – May 2018 12 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 Future of Traditional Powertrains • Engines Become More Efficient • Revolution in Transmissions • Gasoline Direct Injection (GDI) Growing • Traditional Automatics With Up to 10 Gears • Growing from less than 5% (2002) to more than 43% (2025) of • 7-, 8- and 9- speed FWD units global market • 8-, 9- and 10-speed RWD units • Significant Expansion of Turbocharging • Increase in Continuously Variable Transmissions (CVTs) • Especially combined with GDI • More Japanese influenced vehicles and many hybrids • Increasing Electrification • Growth in China by specific vehicle assemblers • Stop/Start and BAS Systems Solidify IC engines • Growth in Dual-Clutch Transmissions (DCTs) • Electrified turbochargers • More for Europe, South America and China • Starting to show up in limited applications • Special Versions Being Developed for Hybrid Applications • Electric Superchargers on the Horizon • Electric motor integration into automatics • Replacing mechanical turbochargers • Transmissions Beginning to Grow on EVs • Compressed Ignition, Direct Injection Gasoline Engines • Allowing for better performance on both highways and city streets • Around 2019 – Mazda leading the way • Electronic Valvetrain • Expected after 2023CY 13 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 14 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 North America Engine Volumes -By Major Configuration 20 Top 3 Engine Configurations 15 10 5 Volume (Millions) Volume 0 I4 V6 V8 H4 I3 500 800 400 +299% +180% 600 300 400 200 Volume (000) Volume Volume (000) Volume 100 200 0 0 15 Source: AutoForecast Solutions – May 2018 15 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 North America Transmission Trends Automatic Transmission Trends DCT 5.6% 14 CVT DCT 23.2% 12 4.1% 2025 CVT 10 A8 A10 19.4% CVT DCT 8 A6 6.7% 1.7% 2017 A9 6 Manual Manual 2010 A6 7.6% 4 A5 5.3% Auto A8 Manual 84.0% 2 Consumption Volume (Millions) A4 5.1% Auto 0 71.2% Auto 2010 2017 2025 66.1% A10 0 637,323 3,929,446 A9 0 883,835 2,181,068 A8 13,350 2,635,423 4,453,881 A7 124,585 283,330 61,099 A6 5,217,244 7,116,474 894,539 A5 Auto Manual CVT DCT 2,331,816 305,228 95,936 A4 2,362,300 189,389 6,248 A1 1,219 30,530 12,931 Source: AutoForecast Solutions – May 2018 16 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 Fuel Price Effect on Powertrain • Falling fuel prices – fuel economy less important • Consumers choosing larger engines again • Choosing different vehicles with larger engines Small diesel programs • Hybrid and EV growth limited being revived for pickups • More difficult to justify added costs and/or compromises • China is bucking the trend and growing • Higher fuel prices in Europe and possible city bans of IC engines generating more interest Monthly US Fuel Economy, Weighted by New Vehicle Sales* 27.0 26.0 25.0 24.0 MPG 23.0 22.0 21.0 20.0 Sales of fuel efficient vehicles in North America are driven more by government incentives and mandates than by * From the Transportation Research Institute, consumer preferences University of Michigan 17 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 18 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 New Electrified Vehicles 19 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 New Electric Platforms Volkswagen’s MEB Platform Daimler’s EVA Platform 20 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 Dedicated Electric Platform Production Volume 2.5 2.0 1.5 Millions 1.0 0.5 0.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 EV Platform volumes Source: AutoForecast Solutions – May 2018 21 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 EV Market Sizing • Conservative Forecast EV Market Outlook • Who wants to build what AFS Forecast vs. VM Announced Plans • Each individual program is scrutinized • What is the likelihood the program will be 12 built and then survive 2025 BEV Market • What other factors come into play 10 AFS = 3.3 Million Variance to • Consumer preferences Optimist Announced Plans = 6.4 Million • Government mandates 8 Viewpoint Optimist View = 10.7 Million • Fuel prices and availability 6 • Materials scarcity Variance to Battery Price Parity Millions 4 Outlook • What If the Optimists Are Right? BEV 63 Brand Owners 2 • MaintainBuilding the “Hockey BEVs Stick” growth Production • EVs represent 10% of global market 0 Outlook • Battery price parity will change everything! • This time it is different! AFS Legacy VMs AFS Start-Up Legacy - Plan Variance Start-Up Variance Optimist Adds Source: AutoForecast Solutions – May 2018 22 Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2018 Global EV Analysis • Global EV market will remain highly Available EV Nameplates fragmented in 2025 300 • Several OEMs command bulk of the volume • Top 5 OEMs account for 48% 250 • Top 10 OEMS account for 64% • Top OEMs still have significant proliferation of EVs 200 Just under 11k units • Top 5 OEMs account for 82 nameplates, per nameplate averaging 18k units per nameplate 285 EV Nameplates Top 10 OEMS account for 114 nameplates, 150 • in 2025 in 2025 averaging 17k units per nameplate
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