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The Global Automotive Outlook Opportunity Identification in a Disruptive Market February 20, 2019 Joseph Mccabe, President 855.734.4590 Ext

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The Global Automotive Outlook Opportunity Identification in a Disruptive Market February 20, 2019 Joseph Mccabe, President 855.734.4590 Ext The Global Automotive Outlook Opportunity Identification in a Disruptive Market February 20, 2019 Joseph McCabe, President 855.734.4590 ext. 1001 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 Competing in a Disruptive Global Market Market Drivers, Enablers & Constraints • Consumer preference vs. market direction • Shareholder value Economic Recovery • Supply chain importance to the VM strategy Ownership Financial • Innovation in product and strategy & Operating Markets Cost • Investment strategies Market Direction & • Regulations, incentives, and standards the need for Innovation • Geo-political impact on globalization Technology Gov’t Price Effects Investment • Future players Auto Supply • Minimize risk and maximize opportunities Chain • Defend core operations and identify areas for growth 3 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 4 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 NA Growth Outlook and OEM Group Contribution North America Y-O-Y Production Volume Impact 400,000 400,000 18 17.79 300,000 300,000 17.67 200,000 200,000 EV 100,000 100,000 EU 0 0 17.11 17.16 -100,000 -100,000 17.03 17 -200,000 -200,000 -300,000 D3 -300,000 Millions -400,000 -400,000 -500,000 -500,000 -600,000 -600,000 Production Volume Change by OEM Group by OEM Change Volume Production -700,000 AP -700,000 16 -800,000 -800,000 -900,000 -900,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Calendar Year D3 EU AP EV Total YOY Change Source: AutoForecast Solutions – January 2019 5 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 NA Production by OEM Parent Base Location North America Light Vehicle Production 20 0.11 0.26 0.41 18 16 1.38 1.34 1.79 14 12 8.63 8.66 8.43 10 Millions 8 6 7.05 4 6.99 6.77 2 0 AP D3 EU EV Source: AutoForecast Solutions – January 2019 6 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 North America: Passenger Car Segment Contribution Annual Volume 2018 = 5.3M • D3 reduce car footprint by 625K+ 2026 = 4.2M EV 5% D3 • Korean OEMs reduce 90K 16% 4% 2018 25% • European OEMs gain 120K 52% Japan Korea 12% 54% 14% • Japanese OEMs reduce by 490K+ 8% EU 10% • EV – primarily Tesla – reduce 8K Japan European Korea D3 EV Source: AutoForecast Solutions – January 2019 7 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 North America: Crossover Vehicle Segment Contribution Annual Volume • European OEMs add 400K units 2018 = 6.1M 2026 = 7.4M EV D3 • Japanese OEMs add nearly 485K units 2% 40% 43% 1% 2026 • Korean OEMs down 10K 2018 35% Japan • EV group – adding about 135K 4% Korea 36% 17% 3% • D3 add 310K (but loses market share?) EU • Consider these imported models… 19% • Jeep Renegade from Italy – 100K+ • Buick Encore from Korea – 90K+ Japan EU Korea D3 EV China • Ford EcoSport from India – 50K pace Source: AutoForecast Solutions – January 2019 8 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 North America Production Highlights • U.S. Sales growth in 2018 • Import Substitution • th Over 17 million for 4 straight year • Subaru Impreza • Growing mid-sized Pickups NOT cannibalizing full • Lexus ES and RX sized trucks (yet) • BMW passenger cars in Mexico • Ford Ranger, expanded Jeep lineup, Ram entries • SUV resurgence • Global Export Hub • Ford Bronco and Jeep Wrangler 4-door • VW Atlas • Jeep Wagoneer / Grand Wagoneer to take on • Subaru Ascent Escalade and Navigator • Audi Q5 • Strong move for FCA • BMW CUVs • VW Atlas (both 2 and 3-row variants) • Mexico • to offset slow selling Passat • Strong export hub • Multiple global free trade agreements • GM portfolio adjustment • Established supply base • Product mix and plant utilization • Strong government support 9 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 10 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales • U.S. light vehicle sales peaked in 2016 • 17.46 million • 2018 marked the forth straight year over 17 million units • Slowdown expected in 2019 and 2020 • 17 million not expected to return until 2024 • 2% decline in 2019 • Market being driven by light truck growth • squeezing car share to near 27% in 2019 • heading toward under 20% by 2023 • Import substitution offsetting future sales contributions Source: AutoForecast Solutions – January 2019 11 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 Recession Risk When long-term and short-term treasury rates bonds converge, Recessions the odds increase for a recession • Recent recessions, including 2007- 2009, 2001, and 1990-1991, coincided with the bond rate convergence • Convergence typically leads to a recession within 12-18 months • Rates converged in late ‘18 and early ‘19, pointing toward a recession in early- to mid-2020 Source: United States Department of the Treasury/AutoForecast Solutions – February 2019 12 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 13 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 Domestic Investment Opportunity • Nissan Rogue • Mazda CX-5 • Sourced from Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. • Top selling Mazda product • Two-thirds of U.S. derived from imports • Sourced from Japan • Toyota RAV4 • Hyundai Tucson • Nearly 250,000 expected from Japan this year • Among the best selling Hyundai models • Sourced from South Korea • Toyota 4Runner • Potential for North American sourcing • Kia Soul • Not enough factory space for 150,000 • Sourced from South Korea • Low-cost hampers North American sourcing • Subaru Forester • Only made in Japan • Honda Civic • Subaru U.S. plant running at full speed • Specialty models imported from U.K. • Strained production capacity in Japan • BREXIT - production justification still valid? • Subaru Crosstrek • Jeep Renegade • Related to the U.S. sourced Impreza • Globally sourced from Italian plant • U.S. plant running at full-speed • Shares plant with related Fiat 500X • Strained production capacity in Japan 14 14 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 15 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 Global Light Vehicle Production (2010 – 2026) GLOBAL LIGHT VEHICLE PRODUCTION Volume Growth (2010 – 2026) Millions -2 2 6 10 14 18 100 ASIA-PACIFIC 15.6 101.2 95.3 80 EASTERN EUROPE 2.6 Millions 60 59.9 MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA 1.3 40 NORTH AMERICA 5.7 20 SOUTH AMERICA -0.4 0 WESTERN EUROPE 1.8 Source: AutoForecast Solutions – January 2019 16 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 Global Segment Analysis Global Segment Contribution Segment Growth 2026 vs. 2018 Van Pickup 9% 2026 Van 4.59% 9% 2018 SUV 12% Pickup-5.31% 4% 2010 10% PC SUV 3.24% 4% 40% 59% 15% CUV 23.50% PC -3.87% CUV 38% Source: AutoForecast Solutions – January 2019 17 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 “1 Million Unit Club” Brand Owner Analysis (2018 vs. 2026) MILLION UNITS OF GLOBAL PRODUCTION RANKING BASED ON 2026 POSITION 20 90% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Brand Owners in Per cent of Toyota Motor 2026 producing Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Total Global OVER 1 Million Volkswagen Production Hyundai Motor units/year Ford Motor General Motors FCA Top 10 Brand Owners Honda Motor Groupe PSA Daimler 73% of total market Geely Group BMW SAIC-GM-Wuling Inductees Since 2010 Mazda Motor Maruti Suzuki Beijing Automotive Group Tata Great Wall Automobile Suzuki Motor Changan Auto Geely Group (with Volvo) Subaru Great Wall Automobile Tata Subaru 2026 2018 Source: AutoForecast Solutions – January 2019 18 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 China – Vehicle Production Outlook China Vehicle Production Vehicle Manufacturers in China by year 30 28.7 71% GROWTH 27.7 26.0 2026 126 25 2018 113 20 2010 94 16.8 15 Millions Brand Owners in China by year 10 2026 105 5 2018 91 0 2010 75 Source: AutoForecast Solutions – January 2019 19 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 China: Fractured Decision Making Volkswagen 2026 10% Geely 6% Changan 2018 11% 5% 5% % of Total 5% Honda Production 5% 5% OTHER 50% 51% in China by 4% Baojun Brand 5% 4% 5% 2% Wuling 4% 4% 4% Buick 4% Ford Toyota 4% Navigating the Decision Making Process Nissan 4% 3% Geography, leadership, politics, regulation, language Source: AutoForecast Solutions – January 2019 20 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 21 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 Global Light Vehicle Production by Fuel Type 2010 Other Fuels 2020 EREV 0.45% 0.19% Fuel Cell Hybrid - Gas BEV Hybrid - Gas 0.01% Diesel 0.94% 0.03% Diesel 4.02% 18.92% 18.00% Other Fuels 0.45% EREV 0.00% Gas Hybrid - Diesel Hybrid - Diesel 79.64% Fuel Cell 0.01% Gas 0.31% BEV 0.00% 74.53% 2.50% Fuel Cell 2026 EREV 2017 0.00% Other Fuels 0.24% 0.45% Hybrid - Gas Hybrid - Gas Fuel Cell Diesel 5.39% 2.69% Diesel 0.01% 18.53% 16.69% EREV 0.17% Other Fuels 0.62% Hybrid - Diesel Hybrid - Diesel Gas 0.19% 77.15% Gas 0.32% BEV BEV 72.19% 0.82% 4.54% Source: AutoForecast Solutions – January 2019 22 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 EV Market Sizing BEV Market Outlook AFS Forecast vs. VM Announced Plans 12 48%+ Optimist Viewpoint 10 2026 BEV Market AFS = 4.6 Million Variance to Announced Plans = 6.4 Million 180%+ Start-Up (Plan Variance) 8 Optimist Optimist View = 10.4 Million Viewpoint 6 Variance to 25%+ Legacy (Plan Variance) Millions Battery Price Parity Outlook 4 64 Start-Up (AFS Forecast) BEV 2 Production Outlook 281 Legacy VM (AFS Forecast) 0 EVEN AN OPTIMISTIC VIEW REQUIRES NEARLY 90% OF VEHICLES TO HAVE AN ENGINE Source: AutoForecast Solutions – January 2019 23 Data that drives tomorrow. February 2019 Electric Platform Production Volume 5.0 4.5 4.0 VW MEB Platform Daimler’s EVA Platform 3.5 52% Shared Platforms 3.0 2.5 2.0 MILLIONS 1.5 Dedicated 48% EV 1.0 Platforms 0.5 75% 0.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Source: AutoForecast Solutions – January 2019 24 Data that drives tomorrow.
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