2 December 2019 China
EQUITIES China autos
Macquarie China auto coverage 2020 outlook – slow lane to a full recovery Name Ticker Price Rating TP +/- Brilliance 1114 HK 8.17 Outperform 10.10 23.6% Dongfeng 489 HK 7.64 Outperform 8.10 6.0% Key points GAC 2238 HK 8.52 Outperform 9.60 12.7% SAIC Motor 600104 CH 23.04 Outperform 31.50 36.7% Cautious outlook for 2020 PV demand, mainly considering weak demand Nexteer 1316 HK 6.66 Outperform 12.15 82.4% from lower-tier cities, increased household leverage and rising CPI. Minth 425 HK 27.30 Outperform 25.80 -5.5% Geely 175 HK 15.08 Neutral 11.20 -25.7% We expect to see further relaxation of the license plate quota in 2020. Yutong Bus 600066 CH 14.31 Neutral 12.70 -11.3% BAIC 1958 HK 4.51 Neutral 4.20 -6.9% Sector preference: higher-end > lower-end > NEVs. Near-term risks on the BYD 1211 HK 38.15 Underperform 20.70 -45.7% downside. OP: Brilliance, DFG, GAC; UP: GWM, BYD, CATL. CATL 300750 CH 87.41 Underperform 60.30 -31.0% Great Wall 2333 HK 6.04 Underperform 3.70 -38.7% Changan-B 200625 CH 3.54 Underperform 3.10 -12.4% Changan-A 000625 CH 8.31 Underperform 3.60 -56.7% Conclusions Note: updated as of 28 November closing prices; Prices are denominated in Rmb for A-share stocks, and HKD for A slow road back to recovery: We lower our 2020 China auto sales by 5% B/H-share stocks. and expect passenger vehicle (PV) sales to edge up 0.5% YoY, after a sharp Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research November 2019 fall in 2019. Our cautious demand outlook, despite the low base, reflects the
concerns around 1) continued macro headwinds, especially a weak private economy that will impact demand from lower-tier cities; 2) the negative impact on consumption for discretionary items like autos from increased household leverage and rising CPI; 3) low consumer confidence levels. Policy expectations: We expect to see further relaxation of license plate restrictions in key cities in 2020, following Shenzhen and Guangzhou. We see lower chances for the government to release supportive policies that require intense fiscal support, mainly considering the fiscal pressure that the government faces in the context of tax reform and slower economic growth, the possible lower-than-expected boost for real demand and potential distortion to the industry. For new energy vehicles (NEV), our base scenario factors in no further subsidy cuts in 2020 to avoid too-aggressive market contraction. Eased regulatory burden: Following the shift to National 6 emission standards from 1 July 2019 in most regions, key OEMs have completed the transition. We don’t expect to see intense industry distortion in 2020 during emission standard upgrades for the remaining regions. That said, we expect to see continued margin dilution for most OEMs from NEV sales in their efforts to meet NEV credit requirements. A quick ramp-up of scale is key to achieving early profit contribution. Sector preference: higher-end > lower-end > NEVs: We continue to like premium and stronger JV brands as key beneficiaries of the rising replacement demand, favourable demographic and wealth trends and potential relaxation of license plate restrictions. We are concerned about increased competition in the lower-end segments and would turn more positive when we see a major recovery in demand from lower-tier cities. We are cautious on the NEV sector, considering the negative impact from subsidy cuts for the whole industry, the lack of individual demand from cities without license plate restrictions and the slowdown of demand from operating fleets.
Stock picks Near-term risks on the downside: In the near term, we see more downside Analysts risks for the sector as auto sales should remain under pressure in 1H20, Macquarie Capital Limited
Allen Yuan +86 21 2412 9009 considering the calendar shift of the Spring Festival and a relative high base in [email protected] 2Q19 distorted by the emission standard upgrades. In addition, the trading PE
multiple of the sector has moved above the five-year average level. We Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited suggest investors stick with OEMs with less demanding valuation and Janet Lewis, CFA +81 3 3512 7856 [email protected] exposure to higher-end brands like Brilliance (BWM), DFG (Honda/Nissan)
and GAC (Toyota/Honda). We are cautious on BYD, CATL and GWM. Please refer to page 19 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
Macquarie Research China autos
Cautious about 2020 auto demand
Fig 1 We expect China total auto sales to grow at a CAGR of 3% in 2019-22E
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019-22 CAGR New car sales (m units) 19.3 22.0 23.5 24.7 28.0 28.9 28.0 25.7 25.9 26.6 27.3 1% Used car sales (m units) 7.9 8.5 9.2 9.4 10.4 12.4 13.8 14.7 15.9 17.5 19.1 7% Total car sales (m units) 27.2 30.5 32.7 34.1 38.4 41.3 41.9 40.5 41.8 44.1 46.4 3%
New car sales YoY growth 4.3% 13.9% 6.9% 4.9% 13.7% 3.0% -2.9% -8.2% 0.5% 2.7% 2.8% Used car sales YoY growth 16.4% 6.7% 8.6% 2.4% 10.3% 19.4% 11.4% 6.5% 8.3% 9.6% 9.2% Total car sales 7.6% 11.8% 7.4% 4.2% 12.7% 7.4% 1.4% -3.4% 3.4% 5.4% 5.3%
Total car ownership (m units) 109.3 126.7 146.0 162.8 185.7 209.1 228.7 245.3 261.4 277.5 293.7 Used car sales as % of total auto ownership 7.3% 6.7% 6.3% 5.8% 5.6% 5.9% 6.0% 6.0% 6.1% 6.3% 6.5% Used car sales as % of new car sales 41.1% 38.5% 39.2% 38.2% 37.1% 42.9% 49.3% 57.2% 61.6% 65.8% 69.9% Note: RED implies key assumptions. Source: Wind, CADA, CAAM, Macquarie Research, November 2019
We incorporate both new car and used car markets into our analytical framework for the China auto market as the used car market is materializing, representing ~57% of total car sales in 2019, on our estimate. We expect the overall China auto market, including used cars, to grow at a CAGR of 3% between 2019-2022E, with used car sales growth outperforming new cars.
Fig 2 We lower our 2019/20 China new car sales estimates
k units 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Passenger vehicle Sedan 7,461 9,494 10,122 10,745 12,010 12,380 11,745 12,150 11,848 11,516 10,377 10,481 10,691 10,904 MPV 249 445 498 493 1,304 1,914 2,109 2,497 2,071 1,728 1,436 1,364 1,405 1,447 SUV 657 1,318 1,594 2,000 2,989 4,082 6,257 9,047 10,253 9,969 9,307 9,446 9,824 10,217 Mini-bus 1,948 2,492 2,258 2,257 1,625 1,332 1,099 684 547 458 401 341 324 308 Sub-total 10,315 13,749 14,472 15,495 17,928 19,708 21,210 24,377 24,718 23,672 21,520 21,632 22,243 22,876
Commercial vehicle 14% Bus 272 356 403 426 478 530 525 488 481 450 432 432 441 456 Truck 2,247 2,820 2,702 2,653 2,726 2,448 2,256 2,364 2,592 2,871 2,644 2,644 2,696 2,750 Trailer 212 354 258 191 263 279 250 398 583 483 561 590 619 650 Bus-chassis 83 87 84 82 82 77 70 55 46 35 33 31 29 28 Truck-chassis 498 675 585 460 507 457 349 346 458 532 548 548 548 548 Sub-total 3,312 4,293 4,033 3,811 4,056 3,791 3,451 3,651 4,161 4,371 4,218 4,244 4,334 4,433 Grand total 13,627 18,042 18,505 19,306 21,984 23,499 24,662 28,028 28,879 28,042 25,738 25,876 26,577 27,308 YoY change (%) Passenger vehicle Sedan 48.0% 27.3% 6.6% 6.1% 11.8% 3.1% -5.1% 3.4% -2.5% -2.8% -9.9% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% MPV 26.1% 78.9% 11.7% -0.9% 164.3% 46.8% 10.2% 18.4% -17.1% -16.5% -16.9% -5.0% 3.0% 3.0% SUV 47.4% 100.4% 21.0% 25.5% 49.4% 36.6% 53.3% 44.6% 13.3% -2.8% -6.6% 1.5% 4.0% 4.0% Mini-bus 83.2% 27.9% -9.4% -0.1% -28.0% -18.1% -17.5% -37.8% -20.0% -16.2% -12.5% -15.0% -5.0% -5.0% Sub-total 52.9% 33.3% 5.3% 7.1% 15.7% 9.9% 7.6% 14.9% 1.4% -4.2% -9.1% 0.5% 2.8% 2.8% SUV penetration 6.4% 9.6% 11.0% 12.9% 16.7% 20.7% 29.5% 37.1% 41.5% 42.1% 43.2% 43.7% 44.2% 44.7%
Commercial vehicle Bus 10.9% 31.1% 13.3% 5.5% 12.4% 10.7% -0.9% -7.0% -1.6% -6.3% -4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.5% Truck 36.9% 25.5% -4.2% -1.8% 2.7% -10.2% -7.8% 4.8% 9.7% 10.7% -7.9% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% Trailer 9.1% 67.2% -27.3% -26.0% 38.2% 5.9% -10.3% 59.1% 46.6% -17.2% 16.2% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Bus-chassis -2.4% 4.3% -2.8% -3.2% 0.0% -5.5% -8.9% -21.9% -15.5% -24.9% -6.7% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% Truck-chassis 11.0% 35.5% -13.3% -21.5% 10.3% -9.8% -23.6% -0.9% 32.3% 16.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Sub-total 26.7% 29.6% -6.1% -5.5% 6.4% -6.5% -9.0% 5.8% 13.9% 5.1% -3.5% 0.6% 2.1% 2.3% Grand total 45.6% 32.4% 2.6% 4.3% 13.9% 6.9% 4.9% 13.7% 3.0% -2.9% -8.2% 0.5% 2.7% 2.8% Source: CAAM, Macquarie Research, November 2019
2 December 2019 2 Macquarie Research China autos
Remain cautious about 2020 PV demand, especially in lower-tier cities We lower our China auto sales estimates for 2019 and 2020 by 4% and 5%, respectively. We expect passenger vehicle market to post 0.5% YoY sales growth in 2020, coming off a low base in 2019. The conservative outlook mainly reflects our cautious view for the demand in lower tier cities, which has been the main drag in 2019, considering
Fig 3 Sales growth in 10M19 – lower-tier cities drag Fig 4 Tier 3-6 cities contributed ~67% of China auto sales
6.0%
4.0% Tier 6 Tier 1 2.0% 9% 10%
0.0% Tier 5 14% -2.0% Tier 2 23% -4.0%
-6.0% Tier 4 -8.0% 21% Total Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5 Tier 6 market Tier 3 23% Total market Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5 Tier 6
Note: based on 10M19 insurance data; only include passenger vehicles. Note: based on 10M19 insurance data; only include passenger vehicles. Source: ThinkerCar, Macquarie Research November 2019 Source: ThinkerCar, Macquarie Research November 2019
1) Continued macro headwinds, especially a weak private economy
China’s economy has been under a broad down-trend for almost eight quarters since 4Q17. Macquarie economist Larry Hu expects real GDP growth to slow further in 4Q19 from 6.0% in 3Q19. A weakened GDP has led to narrowed disposable income growth as well.
Fig 5 GDP growth continues to trend down Fig 6 Overall disposable income also slowed
9.0%
8.5%
8.0%
7.5%
7.0%
6.5%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2018-03 2018-06 2018-09 2018-12 2019-06 2019-09 2013-12 2014-03 2015-03 2015-06 2016-09 2017-12 2019-03
Actual disposal personal income accumulated YoY growth
Source: CEIC, Wind, Macquarie Macro Strategy, November 2019 Source: Wind, Macquarie Research, November 2019
We believe the private sector economy has been under intense operating pressure. We reviewed the profit data for above designated size industrial enterprises, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). One of the key observations is that there is a significant discrepancy in the % change for accumulated industrial output for private enterprises between
the % data for YoY change in accumulated industrial output, as directly reported by the NBS the % results calculated using the absolute value of accumulated industrial output
2 December 2019 3 Macquarie Research China autos
The NBS attributes this to the change in the number of enterprises included in the basket of above designated size industrial enterprises. We attribute the discrepancies to survivorship bias, i.e. more private enterprises fall below the threshold of an above designated size industrial enterprise. This could reflect the shrinking size of many private companies. In addition, gearing ratios of private enterprises remain elevated. Interest spread between SOEs and private enterprises is also at historically high levels.
Per the PBoC Governor (LINK), small and micro businesses, mostly private enterprises, contributed ~80% of the total employment in China. Continued sluggish performance of private enterprises should dampen auto demand.
Fig 7 Industrial output – well matched for SOEs Fig 8 Industrial output – discrepancies since mid-2017
120.0% 20.0% 100.0% 10.0% 80.0% 60.0% 0.0% 40.0% -10.0% 20.0% -20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -40.0%
-60.0%
2015-02 2015-08 2016-02 2016-05 2016-11 2017-02 2017-08 2017-11 2018-05 2018-08 2018-11 2019-02 2019-08 2015-05 2015-11 2016-08 2017-05 2018-02 2019-05
2015-02 2015-05 2015-11 2016-02 2016-08 2016-11 2017-05 2017-08 2017-11 2018-05 2018-08 2019-02 2019-05 2015-08 2016-05 2017-02 2018-02 2018-11 2019-08 Industrial output - private enterprises (reported accumulated % change) Industrial output - SOE (reported accumulated % change) Industrial output - SOE (calculated accumulated % change) Industrial output - private enterprises (calculated accumulated % change)
Source: Wind, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Source: Wind, Macquarie Research, November 2019
Fig 10 Interest spread between SOEs and private Fig 9 Gearing ratio for SOEs vs. private enterprise companies
64.0 250
62.0 200
60.0 150 58.0 100 56.0 50 54.0 0 52.0 -50
50.0
2015-02 2015-08 2015-11 2016-02 2016-08 2016-11 2017-05 2017-08 2018-02 2018-05 2018-08 2019-02 2019-05 2015-05 2016-05 2017-02 2017-11 2018-11 2019-08
Overall industrial sector SOEs Private enterprises Interest spread between SOEs and private enterprises
Source: Wind, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Source: Wind, Macquarie Research, November 2019
2) Negative impact from increased household leverage Overall China household leverage has gone up meaningfully over the past few years. We observe that there is negative correlation between China household leverage and China annual auto sales growth. This may reflect the tendency that the household sector may want to pay down their debt first before spending more, especially on discretionary items. Per PBoC’s estimates, every 1% increase in consumer leverage will lead to a 0.1ppt decrease in consumer confidence.
2 December 2019 4 Macquarie Research China autos
Fig 11 Negative correlation between household leverage and China auto sales
80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Correlation: -0.6 -100% -120% 1998 2001 2004 2006 2009 2012 2014 2017 2020 Household levearge China auto sales Linear (Household levearge) Linear (China auto sales)
Source: Wind, Macquarie Research November 2019
3) Consumer confidence at low levels
With the slowdown of economic growth and other macro uncertainties such as the trade war, consumers are likely to remain cautious about making purchase decisions, especially about discretionary items like automobiles. The rising urban deposit growth rate from 2018 should also reflect consumers’ cautious about spending, especially on discretionary items.
Fig 12 Flat consumer confidence since mid-2018 Fig 13 Rural consumer confidence dipping more
130.00 131.0 125.00 129.0 120.00 127.0
115.00 125.0 123.0 110.00 121.0 105.00 119.0 100.00 117.0 95.00 115.0
PBoC consumer confidence index Overall Urban consumer Rural consumer
Note: The survey is based on the sample in Zhejiang. Source: Wind, Macquarie Research November 2019 Source: Wind, Macquarie Research November 2019
2 December 2019 5 Macquarie Research China autos
Fig 14 Urban household deposit balance growth – on the Fig 15 Relatively lower growth for discretionary items rise since 2018 (yellow columns)
40% 30% 25% 35% 20% 30% 15% 25% 10% 20% 5% 15% 0% 10% -5% 5% Automobile Food, Petroleum & Clothing, Household Daily Use Beverage, Related Shoes, Hats Electric & Goods Tobacco & Product & Textile Video 0% Liquor Appliance
As % of total China retail sales in 10M19 YoY change
2008-09 2009-05 2010-01 2010-09 2011-05 2012-01 2012-09 2013-05 2016-01 2016-09 2017-05 2018-01 2018-09 2019-05 2014-01 2014-09 2015-05 2008-01 Source: Wind, Macquarie Research November 2019 Source: Wind, Macquarie Research November 2019
4) Extra burden from rising CPI In October, China CPI inflation jumped to 3.8% YoY, mainly due to the surging pork prices. There could be two negative impacts from the elevated inflation pressure:
Squeezing spending on discretionary items: Higher costs of daily necessities like food should squeeze spending on discretionary items like automobiles. Lower income groups or rural consumers should bear a greater negative impact from this as a higher percentage of their spending goes into food.
Fig 16 CPI has been rising, mainly on the back of surging Fig 17 Engel's Coefficient – higher spending on food for pork prices rural consumers 20.00
43.0 15.00 41.0
10.00 39.0
37.0 5.00 35.0
0.00 33.0 31.0 -5.00 29.0
-10.00 27.0 25.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
CPI CPI (food) CPI (excl. food) Rural Urban
Source: Wind, Macquarie Research November 2019 Note: Engel’s Coefficient represents the part of spending on food. Source: Wind, Macquarie Research November 2019
Delayed monetary policy: In Larry Hu’s view (LINK), although the PBoC should ignore pork and focus on core CPI inflation (excluding food and energy), PMI, Profit and PPI, government officials have a natural tendency to minimize risks and are putting monetary policy on hold for now. 5) Government policies – we expect to see more relaxation in vehicle purchases
Considering the importance of the auto industry and the expectation of challenges for both exports and property in 2019, we expect the government to release supportive measures to stimulate auto consumption in 2020.
2 December 2019 6 Macquarie Research China autos
Fig 18 Auto sector contributed 8% and 9% of industrial Fig 19 Auto sector (incl. gasoline) contributed 43% of the revenue and net profit in 2018, respectively retail sales value in 2018
% % 12.0% 50% 45% 10.0% 40% 18% 35% 18% 18% 14% 8.0% 18%17%16%14%13%13% 21% 30% 19%18% 6.0% 25% 17% 14% 4.0% 20% 12% 15% 29% 29% 27% 27%26%26%27%27%28%28% 2.0% 21% 10% 18%19%21% 14%15% 0.0% 5% 0%
Revenue contribution Net profit contribution Auto as % of total Gasoline as % of total
Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, November 2019
Fig 20 Potential supportive policies for China auto sector Potential supportive policies Comments Possibility Immediate impact
1 Remove restrictive measures for PV purchases, such as Such measures could effectively help boost auto High High removing the license plate quota. demand. 2 Direct fiscal support, incl. target subsidies for rural auto Key concerns include 1) lack of spending power; Medium High consumption or 50% purchase tax cut for small engine vehicles. 2) potential industry distortion; 3) fiscal pressure 3 Encourage the upgrade of lower emission vehicles, incl. special Key concerns include 1) lack of spending power; Medium Medium trade-in subsidies. 2) fiscal pressure 4 Improve auto financing supply, especially in lower tier cities. Auto financing is no longer a bottleneck; cautious Low Low about loosening shadow banking 5 Potential tax reform for auto consumption, such as allowing It involves legal procedurals for such tax reforms. Low Low personal income tax deduction for auto consumption 6 Remove operation restriction in urban areas for pick-up trucks Government has been pushing through. n.a. Low 7 Improve used car transactions, incl. removing restriction for Government has been pushing through. n.a. Low cross-region registration, VAT tax cut for used car transaction. Source: Macquarie Research, November 2019
Expect more relaxation of license plate quota: Following the relaxation of the license plate quota in Shenzhen and Guangzhou (LINK), we expect to see more cities follow suit. The total ICE license plate quota in the six key cities with license plate restrictions was ~650k in 2019. As there are long waiting lists for ICE vehicles in these cities, any loosening of the restrictive measures could lead to prompt releases of demand. With 50% and 100% increases with the existing quota, total annual PV sales could be boosted by 1-3%.
Fig 21 Key cities with license plate restrictions City Starting time How to get license plate ICE quota in 2019 NEV license plate quota
Shanghai 1994 Auction 130,000 No specific quota Beijing Dec-10 Lottery 40,000 60,000 Guangzhou Jul-12 Auction + Lottery 180,000 No specific quota Tianjin Dec-13 Auction + Lottery 100,000 No specific quota Shenzhen Dec-14 Auction + Lottery 120,000 No specific quota Hangzhou Mar-15 Auction + Lottery 80,000 No specific quota Note: Shanghai and Guangzhou ICE quotas are based on estimates. Source: Macquarie Research, November 2019
2 December 2019 7 Macquarie Research China autos
Fiscal pressure limits subsidy-type of polies: We see less chance for the government to release supportive policies that require intense fiscal support, such as purchase tax cut or direct cash subsidies. The main reason is the fiscal pressure that the government is facing in the context of tax reform and slower economy growth. In addition, subsidies like the previous rounds of supportive policies (say 50% purchase tax cut or the equivalent of ~4% of the MSRP of a vehicle) may not help that much – consumers would have placed orders in 2Q19 if they are waiting for ~5% more discounts before purchasing cars as discounts expanded substantially back then when the industry focused on the destocking of vehicles under the old emission standards. Potential distortion to the industry is another concern.
Fig 22 Broad fiscal revenue vs. expenditure Fig 23 Broad fiscal deficit to GDP ratio
% 30.0 7
25.0 6 20.0 5 15.0 4 10.0
5.0 3
- 2 (5.0) 1 (10.0) 0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2Q18 3Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 2Q14 2Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 4Q18
Revenue Expenditure Budget Actual
Source: Ministry of Finance, Wind, Macquarie Research November 2019 Source: Wind, Macquarie Research November 2019
2 December 2019 8 Macquarie Research China autos
Sector preference – higher-end > lower-end > NEVs
We continue to like premium and stronger JV brands as key beneficiaries of the rising replacement demand, favourable demographic trends and potential relaxation of license plate restrictions. We are concerned about increased competition in the lower-end segments and would turn more positive when we see a major recovery of demand from lower-tier cities. We are cautious on the NEV sector, considering the negative impact from the continued subsidy cut for the whole industry and the lack of individual demand.
Higher-end brands to outperform
Fig 24 Premium brands continue to outperform in 2019 Fig 25 Premium penetration – good potential for China
30% 35% 32% 25% 30% 30% 20% 15% 25% 10% 20% 5% 17%16%16% 0% 15% 15% 13%13% 12%12% -5% 10% 9% -10% 10% 6% 6% -15% 5% 2% -20% 1% 0%
Premium car sales growth China auto sales growth
Source: CAAM, Company data, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Source: LMC, Macquarie Research, November 2019
Rising replacement demand: The proportion of repeat buyers (incl. both replacement purchases and additional purchases) in total sales has risen from around 24% in 2011 to an expected ratio of 42% in 2019. Repeated buyers have a preference for higher-end brands, and we believe the German and Japanese brands are better positioned to leverage their relatively better brand recognition and the strength of their model line-ups.
Fig 26 Rising replacement demand in China is the key driver behind premium demand
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 8.9% 8.7% 8.6% 40% 8.4% 8.3% 30% 7.8% 7.6% 7.4% 20% 5.8% 6.6% 6.3% 6.8% 42.0% 46.0% 33.8% 38.1% 26.0% 29.5% 10% 18.5% 18.8% 19.1% 19.4% 19.7% 22.7% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Replacement purchase Additional purchase First-time purchase
Source: State Information Centre, Ocean Engine, Macquarie Research, November 2019
Wealth allocation: The fact that disposable income growth for high-income groups has outperformed other income levels also supports demand for higher-end cars. IMF (Sonali et. Al (2018)) expects aging and urbanization to likely drive the inequal allocation of wealth higher. In the longer term, it takes a full range of policies such as tax reform, expenditure increases and redistribution to reduce inequality. We would expect to see continued income growth strength in higher-income groups, boding well for higher-end vehicle demand. 2 December 2019 9 Macquarie Research China autos
Fig 27 Disposable income growth trend Fig 28 Disposable income in absolute value
Rmb k 14% 40
12% 35 30 10% 25 8% 20 6% 15 4% 10
2% 5
0% - 20% low 20% low to 20% middle 20% middle to 20% high 20% low 20% low to 20% middle 20% middle to 20% high income middle income income high income income income middle income income high income income
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Wind, Macquarie Research November 2019 Source: Wind, Macquarie Research November 2019
Fig 29 Pre-tax national income by decile Fig 30 Disposable income growth for migrant workers
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Note: average income, in constant 2015 PPP; denominated in Rmb Note: Migrant workers provide good proxy for lower-tier cities consumers. Source: IMF, Macquarie Research November 2019 Source: Wind, Macquarie Research November 2019
Cautious about the entry mass market brands Cautious sales outlook on the back of weak demand in lower-tier cities: As discussed earlier, we are cautious about the demand recovery in lower tier cities, mainly considering the headwinds with the private sector economy that will continue to drag the income growth of consumers in lower- tier cities and negatively impact consumer confidence. As entry mass market brands have higher exposure to lower-tier cities, it would be hard to count on a major sales recovery for them.
Intense pricing pressure remains in place: Our monthly proprietary ISE survey (LINK) shows that discounts have been expanding throughout the year for mass market brands like GWM and Geely, highlighting the intense competition in the entry price segment.
2 December 2019 10 Macquarie Research China autos
Fig 31 Discount expansion for mass market brands; less so for premium brands
Discount % 25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0% Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19
Haval WEY Geely Lynk & Co BMW Mercedes Benz Source: ISE, Macquarie Research, November 2019
The recent increase of dealer rebates by Great Wall for its key models (What supports our conviction sell, 13 November) is one of the recent examples how competition, especially in a slow market, could create continued pricing pressure for this segment.
New models to cannibalize its peers: As most of the sub-segments by key OEMs have been filled with existing products over the past few years, new models now are increasing cannibalizing their peers, especially for domestic brands that have been struggling below the price of Rmb150k. For example, the two new SUVs in Great Wall’s pipeline for 2020 will fall into the same segment of the Haval H2 and H6, respectively. Changan’s new SUV planned for 2020 will be like the existing Changan CS85. It would take more effective marketing and branding strategies to avoid too much cannibalization.
Fig 32 Summary of main new model launches in 4Q19-2020 for key OEMs
Auto group OEM New model Timing Type Segment BAIC-Benz GLA 2020 New generation Compact SUV BAIC-Benz GLB Nov-19 New model Compact SUV BAIC BAIC-Benz eQC Nov-19 New model Midsize SUV BAIC-Hyundai Sonata Apr-20 New generation Midsize sedan BYD Han 2020 New model Midsize sedan BYD BYD S5 2020 New model Compact SUV BMW-Brilliance X2 Oct-19 New model Compact SUV BMW BMW-Brilliance iX3 2020 New model Midside SUV Changan New SUV 2020 New model Midsize SUV Changan-Ford Escape Nov-19 New model Compact SUV Changan-Ford Explorer 2020 New model Midsize SUV Changan Changan-Ford Lincoln MKC 4Q19 New model Compact SUV Changan-Ford Lincoln SUV 2 2020 New model Midsize SUV DF-Honda Civic HB 2020 New model Compact sedan Dongfeng DF-Honda Fit sibling 2020 New model Compact sedan GAC-Toyota Wildlander 1H20 New model Compact SUV GAC-Toyota C-HR BEV 1H20 New model Compact SUV GAC-Honda BREEZE Nov-19 New model Compact SUV GAC GAC-Honda Fit 3Q20 New generation Compact sedan GAC Trumpchi GS4 Nov-19 New generation Compact SUV GAC Trumpchi GA6 Aug-19 New generation Midsize sedan Geely ICON SUV 1Q20 New model Compact SUV Geely Business MPV 1H20 New model MPV Geely New sedan (CMA) Mid-2020 New model Compact sedan Geely Geely Geometry B Mid-2020 New model Compact sedan Lynk & Co Lynk & Co 05 1H20 New model Compact SUV Lynk & Co Lynk & Co 06 (BMA) 2H20 New model Compact sedan Great Wall New SUV 1 2H20 New model Compact SUV Great Wall Great Wall New SUV 2 2H20 New model Compact SUV SAIC-VW MEB SUV 2020 New model Compact SUV SAIC-VW Tiguan L Coupe 2020 New model Midsize SUV SAIC-VW MPV 2020 New model MPV SAIC-GM Cadillac CT4 2020 New model Compact sedan SAIC SAIC-GM Buick Enclave Nov-19 New model Fullsize SUV SAIC-GM Chevrolet Blazer Dec-19 New model Fullsize SUV SAIC Motor MPV 2020 New model MPV SAIC Motor New sedan 2020 New model Compact sedan Note: GREY implies new models to be launched in 2020; The list mainly focuses on conventional vehicles, except some key NEV models such as Mercedes Benz eQC, BMW iX3, BYD Han/S5 and SAIC-VW’s first MEB SUV. Source: Macquarie Research, November 2019 2 December 2019 11 Macquarie Research China autos
Cost burden to meet the regulatory requirements: 1) Margin dilution from NEVs for most: Without major sales growth for NEVs in 2020, we expect to see continued margin dilution from NEV sales as OEMs keep selling NEVs to meet the dual credit requirements. A quick ramp-up of scale is the key to achieve early profit contribution. 2) Limited burden to complete the shift to National 6 emission standard: One of the key events for China auto sector in 2019 was the shift to National 6 emission standards from 1 July in key regions. While the remaining regions don’t need to complete the shift until 1 July 2020, our checks with key OEMs suggest that most of them have completed the shift to National 6 Emission standards. We don’t expect to see intense distortion to the market in 2020, as happened in 2019.
Fig 33 Top selling new energy passenger vehicle OEMs in 9M19 OEM 9M19 9M18 YoY Market share in 9M19
BYD 186,820 128,574 45% 24.5% BAIC (incl. BJ EV) 98,382 97,748 1% 12.9% Geely 55,155 33,474 65% 7.2% SAIC Motor 50,257 75,286 -33% 6.6% Chery 37,209 55,967 -34% 4.9% Great Wall Motor 32,830 4,977 560% 4.3% JAC 32,237 37,744 -15% 4.2% GAC Auto 27,302 11,071 147% 3.6% SAIC-GM-Wuling 27,088 12,915 110% 3.5% SAIC-VW 25,057 0 n.a. 3.3% Changan 22,602 17,667 28% 3.0% BMW Brilliance 18,862 11,529 64% 2.5% Hwatai 15,683 32,809 -52% 2.1% NIO 14,257 0 n.a. 1.9% Xiaopeng 12,889 330 3806% 1.7% Jiangling 12,548 25,858 -51% 1.6% Dongfeng 11,059 3,703 199% 1.4% Weltmeister 10,916 0 n.a. 1.4% Dongfeng-Nissan 9,046 1 904500% 1.2% Hozon Auto 7,029 0 n.a. 0.9% Others 56,676 67,816 -16% 7.4% Total 763,904 617,469 24% 100.0% Source: CATARC, Macquarie Research November 2019
Negative outlook for new energy vehicle market
Fig 34 Macquarie China NEV sales estimates
k units 10,000 30% 9,000 25.0% 25% 8,000 7,000 20% 6,000 13.0% 5,000 10.0% 15% 4,000 7.5% 10% 3,000 4.5% 4.7% 5.4% 5.5% 2,000 2.… 5% 1,000 1.8% 1.3% 0 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E ~ 2025E ~ 2030E
Total NEV sales As % of total auto market
Source: CAAM, Macquarie Research, November 2019
2 December 2019 12 Macquarie Research China autos
As detailed in our 2020 China NEV market outlook (Bumpy road for China NEV market in 2020, 20 Nov), we expect total NEV sales to be 1.4m units in 2020 (only including localised models), implying a penetration rate of ~5.5% or a YoY sales growth of 17%. Our estimates are 30% below the government’s target of 2m units. Our cautious views mainly factor in:
the lack of real individual demand in cities without license plate restrictions; slower expansion of operating fleets, especially ride-hailing fleets, considering the slowdown of the industry growth momentum and weakened driver income;
the scenario of no further subsidy cuts in 2020, as we expect the government to take effective measures to avoid aggressive market contraction. Higher-than-expected subsidy cuts may create further downside to our existing sales forecast;
front-loading of some demand in 4Q20 as the scheduled removal of subsidies will kick in in 2021, in our base scenario.
2 December 2019 13 Macquarie Research China autos
Room for growth in the longer term
Longer-term growth potential We believe the headwinds for China auto market are temporary during the economic transition. Longer term, we still see upside growth potential for the industry. Such growth will be supported by:
Continued GDP growth that drives the increase in disposable income. Favourable demographic trends, with most drivers still in their 20s and 30s. The number of new licence holders is growing by ~10% per annum. Women are still under-represented at less than 30% of driver licence holders vs ~50% in developed markets.
Despite the near-term headwinds for auto financing, there is still room for further expansion of the auto financing penetration rate. We expect the auto financing penetration rate to be 40-45% in 2018, still a low level compared with developed markets at ~70-80%.
Fig 35 International experience – China auto market is shifting to a medium-to-low growth stage Stages Growth trend Auto ownership* Annual growth Time (year) Early Low growth 0-5 - - High growth 5-20 18-21% 7-9 Developing 20-100 19-20% 8-9 Medium-to-high growth 100-200 11-12% 5-7 Medium growth Medium-to-low growth 200-400 4-5% 14-16 Saturation Low growth 400+ 1-2% - Note: Auto ownership is measured by numbers of vehicles owned by 1,000 people; the chart by the State Information Centre is based on the auto market development experience of over 30+ countries. Source: State Information Centre, Macquarie Research November 2019
Fig 36 China’s auto penetration is still below global peers (2019E)
1,200
1,000
800
600
400 226 174 200
0
Note: Only include personal vehicles (excl. commercial vehicles), as defined by LMC. Source: LMC, Macquarie Research, November 2019
What will drive us to turn more positive We believe the private sector economy will be a key driver for the major recovery of China auto market. That said, it will likely take systematic top-down reforms to address the challenges that the private economy is facing, such as insufficient credit from banks, elevated financing costs and the lack of fair competition against SOEs. While it would be hard to tell the exact timing of such a recovery, we would turn more positive on the sector outlook when we see the following indicators:
Continued recovery of total social financing, especially long-term corporate borrowing that may provide a leading indicator for corporate’s expansionary capex cycle.
Continued recovery of the profitability of private enterprises.
2 December 2019 14 Macquarie Research China autos
Valuation charts of HK/China auto OEMs under coverage
Fig 37 Five-year PER chart for HK-listed auto OEMs
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
BEst P/E Ratio Average PER +1STD -1STD
Note: The underlying components include GWM, GAC, Geely, Brilliance, DFG and BAIC. BYD is excluded. Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, November 2019
Fig 38 Five-year PBR chart for HK-listed auto OEMs
3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6
BEst P/B Ratio Average PER +1STD -1STD
Note: The underlying components include GWM, GAC, Geely, Brilliance, DFG and BAIC. BYD is excluded. Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, November 2019
2 December 2019 15 Macquarie Research China autos
Fig 39 Hang Seng Index three-year FY1 PER chart Fig 40 Geely three-year FY1 PER chart
13 20
18 12 16 11 14
10 12
10 9 8 8 6
7 4
Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-19
Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-16 Aug-16
1-yr fw per avg. +1 stdev -1 stdev 1-yr fw per avg. +1 stdev -1 stdev
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2019
Fig 41 Brilliance three-year FY1 PER chart Fig 42 BYD three-year FY1 PER chart
16 45
14 40
12 35
10 30
8 25
6 20
4 15
Apr-17 Apr-19 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-18 Apr-19
Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-18
Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-16
1-yr fw per avg. +1 stdev -1 stdev 1-yr fw per avg. +1 stdev -1 stdev
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2019
Fig 43 BAIC three-year FY1 PER chart Fig 44 GAC three-year FY1 PER chart
12 12
11 11
10 10
9 9
8 8
7 7
6 6
5 5
4 4
Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-19
Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-16 Aug-16
1-yr fw per avg. +1 stdev -1 stdev 1-yr fw per avg. +1 stdev -1 stdev
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2019
2 December 2019 16 Macquarie Research China autos
Fig 45 Dongfeng Motor Group three-year FY1 PER chart Fig 46 Great Wall Motor three-year FY1 PER chart
6.0 12
11 5.5 10 5.0 9
4.5 8
7 4.0 6 3.5 5
3.0 4
Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-19
Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-16
1-yr fw per avg. +1 stdev -1 stdev 1-yr fw per avg. +1 stdev -1 stdev
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2019
Fig 47 SAIC three-year FY1 PER chart Fig 48 Yutong three-year FY1 PER chart
12 16
11 15 14 10 13 9 12 8 11
7 10
6 9
Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-19
Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-16 Aug-16
1-yr fw per avg. +1 stdev -1 stdev 1-yr fw per avg. +1 stdev -1 stdev
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2019
Fig 49 Changan-A three-year FY1 PER chart Fig 50 CATL three-year FY1 PER chart
40 55.0 36 32 50.0 28 45.0 24 20 40.0 16
12 35.0 8
4 30.0
Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19
Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-16
1-yr fw per avg. +1 stdev -1 stdev PER -1 Std +1 Std Average
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, November 2019
2 December 2019 17 Macquarie Research China autos
Fig 51 Nexteer three-year FY1 PER chart Fig 52 Minth three-year FY1 PER chart
16 18 15 17 14 16 13 15 12 14 11 13 10 12 9 11 8 10 7 9
6 8
Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-19
Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-16 Aug-16
1-yr fw per avg. +1 stdev -1 stdev 1-yr fw per avg. +1 stdev -1 stdev
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2019
2 December 2019 18 Macquarie Research China autos
Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Volatility index definition* Financial definitions Macquarie – Asia, USA, Europe and Mazi Macquarie This is calculated from the volatility of historical All "Adjusted" data items have had the following (SA): price movements. adjustments made: Outperform – expected return >10% Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Very high–highest risk – Stock should be catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, Underperform – expected return <-10% expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense – investors should be aware this stock is highly Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand speculative. revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & Outperform – expected return >10% minority interests Neutral – expected return from 0% to 10% High – stock should be expected to move up or Underperform – expected return <0% down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* be aware this stock could be speculative. ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets Note: expected return is reflective of a Medium Volatility ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average stock and should be assumed to adjust proportionately Medium – stock should be expected to move up total assets with volatility risk or down at least 30–40% in a year. ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation Low–medium – stock should be expected to *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. number of shares
Low – stock should be expected to move up or All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks down at least 15–25% in a year. are modelled under IFRS (International Financial * Applicable to select stocks in Asia/Australia/NZ Reporting Standards).
Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations
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2 December 2019 20
Equities
Asia Research Head of Equity Research Emerging Leaders Technology Jake Lynch (Asia – Head) (852) 3922 3583 Corinne Jian (Asia) (8862) 2734 7522 Nicolas Baratte (Asia) (852) 3922 5801 Hiroyuki Sakaida (Japan – Head) (813) 3512 6695 Kwang Cho (Korea) (822) 3705 4953 Damian Thong (Asia) (813) 3512 7877 Bo Denworalak (Thailand) (662) 694 7774 Jeffrey Ohlweiler (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7512 Automobiles, Auto Parts Patrick Liao (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7515 Infrastructure, Industrials, Transportation Janet Lewis (China, Japan) (813) 3512 7856 Cherry Ma (Greater China) (852) 3922 5800 Allen Yuan (China) (8621) 2412 9009 Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082 Erica Chen (Greater China) (8621) 2412 9024 James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661 Eric Zong (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4749 Kaylin Tsai (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7523 Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084 Kunio Sakaida (Japan) (813) 3512 7873 Hiroshi Taguchi (Japan) (813) 3512 7867 James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661 Daniel Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8641 Banks and Financials Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522 Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088 Scott Russell (Asia) (852) 3922 3567 Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087 Telecoms Dexter Hsu (China, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7530 Internet, Media and Software Keisuke Moriyama (Japan) (813) 3512 7476 Nicolas Baratte (Asia) (852) 3922 5801 Suresh Ganapathy (India) (9122) 6720 4078 Han Joon Kim (Asia) (852) 3922 5926 Andy Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8690 Nishant Shah (India) (9122) 6720 4099 John Wang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3578 Prem Jearajasingam (ASEAN) (603) 2059 8989 Jayden Vantarakis Frank Chen (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1433 Kervin Sisayan (Philippines) (632) 857 0893 (ASEAN, Indonesia, Singapore) (6221) 2598 8310 Ellie Jiang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4110 Utilities, Renewables Ben Shane Lim (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8868 Andy Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8690 Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892 Alankar Garude (India) (9122) 6720 4134 Hiroyuki Sakaida (Japan) (813) 3512 6695 Peach Patharavanakul (Thailand) (662) 694 7753 Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082 Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals Sean Hu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3571 Basic Materials, Commodities Aditya Suresh (Asia) (852) 3922 1265 Kerry Cheng (China) (8621) 2412 9025 David Ching (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1823 Anna Park (Asia) (822) 3705 8669 Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087 Harunobu Goroh (Japan) (813) 3512 7886 Yasuhiro Nakada (Japan) (813) 3512 7862 Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899 Yasuhiro Nakada (Japan) (813) 3512 7862 Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522 Strategy, Country Anna Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669 Ben Shane Lim (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8868 Jayden Vantarakis (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8310 Yupapan Polpornprasert (Thailand) (662) 694 7729 Viktor Shvets (Asia, Global) (852) 3922 3883 Ashish Jain (India) (9122) 6720 4063 David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291 Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Hiroyuki Sakaida (Japan) (813) 3512 6695 Conglomerates David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291 Daniel Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8641 David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291 Xiang Gao (China, Hong Kong) (8621) 2412 9006 Jeffrey Ohlweiler (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7512 Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892 Corinne Jian (China) (8862) 2734 7522 Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087 Jayden Vantarakis Consumer, Gaming Mi Hyun Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8689 Alankar Garude (India) (9122) 6720 4134 (ASEAN, Indonesia, Singapore) (6221) 2598 8310 Linda Huang (Asia) (852) 3922 4068 Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989 Terence Chang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3581 Property, REIT Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892 Sunny Chow (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3768 David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291 Peach Patharavanakul (Thailand) (662) 694 7753
Edward Engel (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 5750 Kelvin Tam (China) (852) 3922 1181 Leon Rapp (Japan) (813) 3512 7879 Nicholas Ting (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1398 Find our research at Kwang Cho (Korea) (822) 3705 4953 Keisuke Moriyama (Japan) (813) 3512 7476 Macquarie: www.macquarieinsights.com Amit Sinha (India) (9122) 6720 4085 Derrick Heng (Singapore) (65) 6601 0436 Refinitiv: www.refinitiv.com Denise Soon (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8845 Bloomberg: MAC GO Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088 Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899 Richard Danusaputra (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8368 CapitalIQ www.capitaliq.com Chalinee Congmuang (Thailand) (662) 694 7993 Aiman Mohamad (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8986 Contact [email protected] for access
Kervin Sisayan (Philippines) (632) 857 0893 requests. Bo Denworalak (Thailand) (662) 694 7774
Email addresses [email protected]
Asia Sales Regional Heads of Sales Regional Heads of Sales cont’d Sales Trading cont’d Miki Edelman (1 212) 231 6121 DJ Kwak (Korea) (822) 3705 8608 Suhaida Samsudin (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888 (Head of Strategic Client Solutions) Nik Hadi (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888 Michael Santos (Philippines) (632) 857 0813 Christina Lee (Head of Asian Sales) (1 212) 231 2559 Gino C Rojas (Philippines) (632) 857 0861 Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555 Alan Chen (HK/China) (852) 3922 2019 Eric Lin (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7590 Marc Rosa (New York) (1 212) 231 2555 Amelia Mehta (Singapore) (65) 6601 0211 Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601 Justin Morrison (Singapore) (65) 6601 0288 Paul Colaco (US) (1 415) 762 5003 Brendan Rake (Thailand) (662) 694 7707 Sales Trading Mothlib Miah (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4893 Mike Keen (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4905 Sandeep Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4101 Mark Weekes (Asia) (852) 3922 2084 Janeman Latul (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8303 Stanley Dunda (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555 Thomas Renz (Geneva) (41 22) 818 7712 Leslie Hoy (Japan) (813) 3512 7919 Tomohiro Takahashi (Japan) (813) 3512 7823
This publication was disseminated on 01 December 2019 at 23:27 UTC.