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China Autos 2020 Outlook – Slow Lane to a Full Recovery

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China Autos 2020 Outlook – Slow Lane to a Full Recovery 2 December 2019 China EQUITIES China autos Macquarie China auto coverage 2020 outlook – slow lane to a full recovery Name Ticker Price Rating TP +/- Brilliance 1114 HK 8.17 Outperform 10.10 23.6% Dongfeng 489 HK 7.64 Outperform 8.10 6.0% Key points GAC 2238 HK 8.52 Outperform 9.60 12.7% SAIC Motor 600104 CH 23.04 Outperform 31.50 36.7% Cautious outlook for 2020 PV demand, mainly considering weak demand Nexteer 1316 HK 6.66 Outperform 12.15 82.4% from lower-tier cities, increased household leverage and rising CPI. Minth 425 HK 27.30 Outperform 25.80 -5.5% Geely 175 HK 15.08 Neutral 11.20 -25.7% We expect to see further relaxation of the license plate quota in 2020. Yutong Bus 600066 CH 14.31 Neutral 12.70 -11.3% BAIC 1958 HK 4.51 Neutral 4.20 -6.9% Sector preference: higher-end > lower-end > NEVs. Near-term risks on the BYD 1211 HK 38.15 Underperform 20.70 -45.7% downside. OP: Brilliance, DFG, GAC; UP: GWM, BYD, CATL. CATL 300750 CH 87.41 Underperform 60.30 -31.0% Great Wall 2333 HK 6.04 Underperform 3.70 -38.7% Changan-B 200625 CH 3.54 Underperform 3.10 -12.4% Changan-A 000625 CH 8.31 Underperform 3.60 -56.7% Conclusions Note: updated as of 28 November closing prices; Prices are denominated in Rmb for A-share stocks, and HKD for A slow road back to recovery: We lower our 2020 China auto sales by 5% B/H-share stocks. and expect passenger vehicle (PV) sales to edge up 0.5% YoY, after a sharp Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research November 2019 fall in 2019. Our cautious demand outlook, despite the low base, reflects the concerns around 1) continued macro headwinds, especially a weak private economy that will impact demand from lower-tier cities; 2) the negative impact on consumption for discretionary items like autos from increased household leverage and rising CPI; 3) low consumer confidence levels. Policy expectations: We expect to see further relaxation of license plate restrictions in key cities in 2020, following Shenzhen and Guangzhou. We see lower chances for the government to release supportive policies that require intense fiscal support, mainly considering the fiscal pressure that the government faces in the context of tax reform and slower economic growth, the possible lower-than-expected boost for real demand and potential distortion to the industry. For new energy vehicles (NEV), our base scenario factors in no further subsidy cuts in 2020 to avoid too-aggressive market contraction. Eased regulatory burden: Following the shift to National 6 emission standards from 1 July 2019 in most regions, key OEMs have completed the transition. We don’t expect to see intense industry distortion in 2020 during emission standard upgrades for the remaining regions. That said, we expect to see continued margin dilution for most OEMs from NEV sales in their efforts to meet NEV credit requirements. A quick ramp-up of scale is key to achieving early profit contribution. Sector preference: higher-end > lower-end > NEVs: We continue to like premium and stronger JV brands as key beneficiaries of the rising replacement demand, favourable demographic and wealth trends and potential relaxation of license plate restrictions. We are concerned about increased competition in the lower-end segments and would turn more positive when we see a major recovery in demand from lower-tier cities. We are cautious on the NEV sector, considering the negative impact from subsidy cuts for the whole industry, the lack of individual demand from cities without license plate restrictions and the slowdown of demand from operating fleets. Stock picks Near-term risks on the downside: In the near term, we see more downside Analysts risks for the sector as auto sales should remain under pressure in 1H20, Macquarie Capital Limited Allen Yuan +86 21 2412 9009 considering the calendar shift of the Spring Festival and a relative high base in [email protected] 2Q19 distorted by the emission standard upgrades. In addition, the trading PE multiple of the sector has moved above the five-year average level. We Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited suggest investors stick with OEMs with less demanding valuation and Janet Lewis, CFA +81 3 3512 7856 [email protected] exposure to higher-end brands like Brilliance (BWM), DFG (Honda/Nissan) and GAC (Toyota/Honda). We are cautious on BYD, CATL and GWM. Please refer to page 19 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Macquarie Research China autos Cautious about 2020 auto demand Fig 1 We expect China total auto sales to grow at a CAGR of 3% in 2019-22E 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019-22 CAGR New car sales (m units) 19.3 22.0 23.5 24.7 28.0 28.9 28.0 25.7 25.9 26.6 27.3 1% Used car sales (m units) 7.9 8.5 9.2 9.4 10.4 12.4 13.8 14.7 15.9 17.5 19.1 7% Total car sales (m units) 27.2 30.5 32.7 34.1 38.4 41.3 41.9 40.5 41.8 44.1 46.4 3% New car sales YoY growth 4.3% 13.9% 6.9% 4.9% 13.7% 3.0% -2.9% -8.2% 0.5% 2.7% 2.8% Used car sales YoY growth 16.4% 6.7% 8.6% 2.4% 10.3% 19.4% 11.4% 6.5% 8.3% 9.6% 9.2% Total car sales 7.6% 11.8% 7.4% 4.2% 12.7% 7.4% 1.4% -3.4% 3.4% 5.4% 5.3% Total car ownership (m units) 109.3 126.7 146.0 162.8 185.7 209.1 228.7 245.3 261.4 277.5 293.7 Used car sales as % of total auto ownership 7.3% 6.7% 6.3% 5.8% 5.6% 5.9% 6.0% 6.0% 6.1% 6.3% 6.5% Used car sales as % of new car sales 41.1% 38.5% 39.2% 38.2% 37.1% 42.9% 49.3% 57.2% 61.6% 65.8% 69.9% Note: RED implies key assumptions. Source: Wind, CADA, CAAM, Macquarie Research, November 2019 We incorporate both new car and used car markets into our analytical framework for the China auto market as the used car market is materializing, representing ~57% of total car sales in 2019, on our estimate. We expect the overall China auto market, including used cars, to grow at a CAGR of 3% between 2019-2022E, with used car sales growth outperforming new cars. Fig 2 We lower our 2019/20 China new car sales estimates k units 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Passenger vehicle Sedan 7,461 9,494 10,122 10,745 12,010 12,380 11,745 12,150 11,848 11,516 10,377 10,481 10,691 10,904 MPV 249 445 498 493 1,304 1,914 2,109 2,497 2,071 1,728 1,436 1,364 1,405 1,447 SUV 657 1,318 1,594 2,000 2,989 4,082 6,257 9,047 10,253 9,969 9,307 9,446 9,824 10,217 Mini-bus 1,948 2,492 2,258 2,257 1,625 1,332 1,099 684 547 458 401 341 324 308 Sub-total 10,315 13,749 14,472 15,495 17,928 19,708 21,210 24,377 24,718 23,672 21,520 21,632 22,243 22,876 Commercial vehicle 14% Bus 272 356 403 426 478 530 525 488 481 450 432 432 441 456 Truck 2,247 2,820 2,702 2,653 2,726 2,448 2,256 2,364 2,592 2,871 2,644 2,644 2,696 2,750 Trailer 212 354 258 191 263 279 250 398 583 483 561 590 619 650 Bus-chassis 83 87 84 82 82 77 70 55 46 35 33 31 29 28 Truck-chassis 498 675 585 460 507 457 349 346 458 532 548 548 548 548 Sub-total 3,312 4,293 4,033 3,811 4,056 3,791 3,451 3,651 4,161 4,371 4,218 4,244 4,334 4,433 Grand total 13,627 18,042 18,505 19,306 21,984 23,499 24,662 28,028 28,879 28,042 25,738 25,876 26,577 27,308 YoY change (%) Passenger vehicle Sedan 48.0% 27.3% 6.6% 6.1% 11.8% 3.1% -5.1% 3.4% -2.5% -2.8% -9.9% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% MPV 26.1% 78.9% 11.7% -0.9% 164.3% 46.8% 10.2% 18.4% -17.1% -16.5% -16.9% -5.0% 3.0% 3.0% SUV 47.4% 100.4% 21.0% 25.5% 49.4% 36.6% 53.3% 44.6% 13.3% -2.8% -6.6% 1.5% 4.0% 4.0% Mini-bus 83.2% 27.9% -9.4% -0.1% -28.0% -18.1% -17.5% -37.8% -20.0% -16.2% -12.5% -15.0% -5.0% -5.0% Sub-total 52.9% 33.3% 5.3% 7.1% 15.7% 9.9% 7.6% 14.9% 1.4% -4.2% -9.1% 0.5% 2.8% 2.8% SUV penetration 6.4% 9.6% 11.0% 12.9% 16.7% 20.7% 29.5% 37.1% 41.5% 42.1% 43.2% 43.7% 44.2% 44.7% Commercial vehicle Bus 10.9% 31.1% 13.3% 5.5% 12.4% 10.7% -0.9% -7.0% -1.6% -6.3% -4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.5% Truck 36.9% 25.5% -4.2% -1.8% 2.7% -10.2% -7.8% 4.8% 9.7% 10.7% -7.9% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% Trailer 9.1% 67.2% -27.3% -26.0% 38.2% 5.9% -10.3% 59.1% 46.6% -17.2% 16.2% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Bus-chassis -2.4% 4.3% -2.8% -3.2% 0.0% -5.5% -8.9% -21.9% -15.5% -24.9% -6.7% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% Truck-chassis 11.0% 35.5% -13.3% -21.5% 10.3% -9.8% -23.6% -0.9% 32.3% 16.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Sub-total 26.7% 29.6% -6.1% -5.5% 6.4% -6.5% -9.0% 5.8% 13.9% 5.1% -3.5% 0.6% 2.1% 2.3% Grand total 45.6% 32.4% 2.6% 4.3% 13.9% 6.9% 4.9% 13.7% 3.0% -2.9% -8.2% 0.5% 2.7% 2.8% Source: CAAM, Macquarie Research, November 2019 2 December 2019 2 Macquarie Research China autos Remain cautious about 2020 PV demand, especially in lower-tier cities We lower our China auto sales estimates for 2019 and 2020 by 4% and 5%, respectively.
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