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IMAX China Holdings Soft Momentum After Avengers

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IMAX China Holdings Soft Momentum After Avengers 14 June 2018 Hong Kong EQUITIES IMAX China Holdings 1970 HK Neutral Soft momentum after Avengers Price (at 06:39, 13 Jun 2018 GMT) HK$27.60 Valuation HK$ 26.00-29.00 Key points - PER Downgrade to Neutral with TP lowered to HK$27.77 12-month target HK$ 27.77 We expect IMAX China’s BO growth to slow down after Avengers with its Upside/Downside % +0.6 network expansion peaking 12-month TSR % +1.8 We expect earnings to drop by 4% YoY in 2H18, with a 4% 18-20E CAGR Volatility Index High GICS sector Media Market cap HK$m 9,903 Event Market cap US$m 1,246 Downgrade to Neutral. IMAX China’s share price has rallied by 45% from the Free float % 32 trough earlier this year (vs +4% for HSI), on the good box office (BO) 30-day avg turnover US$m 5.1 performance of Avengers and strong 1Q. However, we expect the earnings Number shares on issue m 358.8 growth momentum going forward to inevitably slow down on the expected soft film slate and more importantly, the peaking of network installations. We expect Investment fundamentals its earnings to decline by 4% YoY in 2H18, after a +36% YoY in 1H18E, with a Year end 31 Dec 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenue m 126.5 138.6 146.9 150.7 4% 18-20E earnings CAGR. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. EBIT m 57.3 65.1 68.7 70.4 EBIT growth % 20.7 13.5 5.6 2.4 Impact Reported profit m 43.7 49.0 51.8 53.1 Softer momentum after Avengers. We expect IMAX China’s BO growth Adjusted profit m 45.9 51.3 54.3 55.6 EPS rep ¢ 12.1 13.4 13.9 14.0 momentum to decelerate to 10% YoY in 2Q18 and 14% YoY in 2H18, after EPS rep growth % 21.1 11.2 3.3 0.5 27% in 1Q18. Despite the Rmb2.36bn BO of Avengers, the soft BO EPS adj ¢ 12.7 14.1 14.6 14.6 EPS adj growth % 21.8 10.9 3.4 0.5 performance of other titles such as Solo: A Star Wars Story, and the block of PER rep x 29.1 26.2 25.3 25.2 Deadpool 2 in PRC explains it. Upcoming titles include Jurassic World: Fallen PER adj x 27.7 25.0 24.2 24.1 Total DPS ¢ 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.4 Kingdom (15 June), Incredible 2 (22 June), local film Animal World (29 June), Total div yield % 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 and also Mission: Impossible 6, Vanom etc in 2H (Fig 3). Overall, we do not ROA % 19.4 18.3 16.6 14.9 ROE % 21.2 19.0 16.8 14.7 think the upcoming film slate is particularly stronger compared to 2017, while EV/EBITDA x 15.5 13.0 12.8 12.8 local films could bring some upside. Net debt/equity % -47.7 -57.6 -64.5 -69.6 P/BV x 5.1 4.2 3.7 3.2 Installations have peaked. IMAX’s China sales growth in 2016-17 was supported by the installation growth of sales-type systems. However, that figure 1970 HK rel HSI performance, & rec history could show its first decline to 37 this year from 33/41 in 2016/17, and then to 33/25 in 2019/20 per our estimate. That would also adversely impact the company’s earnings further given the high gross margin of sales-type systems. Expect a 4% earnings CAGR in 2018-20. We continue to like IMAX China’s new film selection strategy that has been implemented since 2H17 to accommodate more local films with higher flexibility to local exhibitors. However, even after factoring that in (we already estimate a 16% 18-20E BO CAGR), we still come out with a lacklustre 4% earnings CAGR for IMAX China, given the expected lower contribution from sales-type installations and flattish PSA. Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, June 2018 Earnings and target price revision (all figures in USD unless noted, TP in HKD) 18E earnings +6% on expected solid 1H18. We trim 19-20E earnings by 1-2%. We Macquarie Governance and Risk Score (MGRS) lower our TP to HK$27.77 (from HK$31.35) on a lower target PER of 26x to reflect On our proprietary Governance and Risk Score IMAX China Holdings scores in the second quartile of our slower growth. Our 18/19/20 earnings estimates are 2%/5%12% below BBG. current universe coverage. Price catalyst Analysts 12-month price target: HK$27.77 based on a PER methodology. Macquarie Capital Limited Catalyst: 1H18 results, film BO performance Marcus Yang +86 21 2412 9087 [email protected] Action and recommendation Wendy Huang, CFA +852 3922 3378 Downgrade to Neutral. The stock trades at a 24x 19E PER or 4x PEG, [email protected] compared to the historical average of 2x PEG. We would need to see a more Frank Chen +852 3922 1433 structural BO momentum recovery from the industry to turn positive on this [email protected] name. Upside risks to our view: cost reduction, local films’ BO, booking timing of sales-type systems, and import quota of foreign films. Please refer to page 12 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Macquarie Research IMAX China Holdings Downgrade to Neutral with TP of HK$27.77 We downgrade IMAX China to Neutral from Outperform as we: 1) see slower BO momentum coming after Avengers. We expect IMAX China’s BO growth to slow down to 10% YoY in 2Q18 and 14% YoY in 2H18 from 27% YoY in 1Q18. We are not that positive regarding the film pipeline throughout the rest of the year we see so far, while the Chinese local films would be the key swing factor. 2) expect the first decline in the sales-type system installations. Those one-off installations supported IMAX China’s financial performance during 2016-17. Based on the company’s guidance, its total installations this year will drop to 105 from 119/120 in 2016/17. Of which, the sales-type installations will drop to 37 from 33/44 in 2016/17. We see the sales-type installations to decline to 33/25 in 2019/20E. As such, we expect IMAX China’s earnings growth to stall to 4% in 2018-20E, after we trim our 19- 20E earnings estimates by 1-2%. Our 19/20E earnings estimates are 5% and 12% below consensus. The stock is now trading at a 24.3x 19E PER, with a 6% 18-21E earnings CAGR, or 4.0x PEG. Historically, the stock has traded at a 41x PER average (20-58x) with a 20% 2014-17 earnings CAGR, or 2x PEG. Our new target price of HK$27.77 is based on a 26x 18-19E average PER (from HK$31.35 based on a 30x 18-19E average PER). We revise down our target PER to reflect the expected slower growth (4% vs 8% prior) and the confidence level regarding the overall China box office growth. We would not turn more positive bullish until we see a clearer sign of box office growth resumption from the industry. Fig 1 Earnings revision New estimates YE 31 Dec (USD '000) 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenue 138,575 146,891 150,651 OP 62,704 66,231 67,819 Net Profit 48,987 51,766 53,012 Non-GAAP net profit 51,342 54,263 55,573 Adjusted EPS 0.14 0.15 0.15 Old estimates YE 31 Dec (USD '000) 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenue 138,433 148,635 155,620 OP 59,183 66,574 69,467 Net Profit 46,241 52,027 54,279 Non-GAAP net profit 48,594 54,554 56,924 Adjusted EPS 0.13 0.15 0.15 Estimate change YE 31 Dec 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenue 0.1% -1.2% -3.2% OP 5.9% -0.5% -2.4% Net Profit 5.9% -0.5% -2.3% Non-GAAP net profit 5.7% -0.5% -2.4% Adjusted EPS 5.7% -0.5% -2.4% Source: Macquarie Research, June 2018 Fig 2 Key metric assumptions for IMAX China 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E IMAX China box office (USD million) 312 296 291 337 391 450 yoy growth 53.8% -5.3% -1.7% 16.0% 15.8% 15.3% Per screen average box office (USD 000) 1,155 809 601 565 562 572 yoy growth 15.7% -29.9% -25.7% -5.9% -0.7% 1.9% Number of theatres 307 424 544 649 742 832 Sales type 130 164 229 266 299 324 Full revenue sharing 131 196 246 301 344 389 Hybrid revenue sharing 46 64 69 82 99 119 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2018 14 June 2018 2 Macquarie Research IMAX China Holdings Softer momentum after Avengers IMAX China registered strong revenue growth of 51% YoY in 1Q18, thanks to the 27% YoY BO growth (driven by CNY performance) and the sales type-installations. IMAX China added 5 new installations during 1Q18, according to IMAX US results, and all 5 of those are sales-type, which is positive to its margin profile in 1Q.
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