An Inclusive Israeli Society or Separate Tribes?
Quantitative Indices
Alex Mintz, Chaim Weizmann, Ori Slonim, Chen Elisha & Tom Lourie
Herzliya Conference 2017 2 The Purpose of the Research
To answer the question: Does Israel march in accordance with President Rivlin’s spirit toward an Inclusive Israeli Society, or does the trend in which the various tribes tug in their own respective directions continue?
Identify trends of widening/narrowing disparities between the various tribes over time. The Israeli Society Divided 3 Two years ago, the President of Israel, in a speech given here, at the Herzliya Conference, followed in the footsteps of the Central Bureau of Statistics and listed four tribes – according to the various educational sectors.
President Rivlin The Israel Democracy Prof. Amnon Rubinstein Prof. Sammy Smooha Institute (2017) (1984) 1. The Secular Tribe Jews: Jews Division by cleavages 2. The National-Religious 1. Haredim, 1. Haredim (pairs of two, per Tribe 2. National-Religious, 2. Zionist-Religious cleavage): 3. The Haredi Tribe 3. Masorti-Dati, 3. Masortim 1. The Class 4. The Arab Tribe 4. Masorti-non Dati, 4. Non-Religious 5. Secular 5. Messianic Cleavage 6. Entitled by the Law of 2. The Ethnic Arabs Return Cleavage Arabs 3. The National 1. Muslim Cleavage/ 2. Druze Jewish-Arab 3. Bedouin Cleavage 4. Circassians 5. Christians 4. The Political Non-Arab Christians Cleavage Others 5. The Secular- Religious Cleavage Methodology: 4 Database and Indices Development Development of the Inclusive Israeli Society indices:
Comparative data for 2006-2015 on: Education Employment Infrastructure and Resources Political and Social Attitudes Multivariate Model’s Findings
Data Sources: Central Bureau of Statistics; Ministry of Education; The Four-Tribes Survey (2016) 5 Local Authorities:
The Secular tribe: The National-Religious tribe: The Haredi tribe: The Arab tribe: Eilat Efrat El’ad Umm al-Fahm Beersheba Gush Etzion Regional Council Beitar Illit Baqa al-Gharbiyye Haifa Sdot Negev Regional Council Bnei Brak Nazareth Kiryat Ata Kiryat Arba Modi’in Illit Rahat Kiryat Shmona Karnei Shomron Immanuel Shfar’am
6 Indicators
Education: Number of pupils in class (mean); Rate of those entitled to matriculation certificates (bagrut) which meet academic acceptance requirements Mean expenditure per pupil of local authority
7 Indicators (cont’d)
Employment:
Percent of employed persons, out of the local authority’s residents of working age;
Average monthly wage per employee.
8 Indicators (cont’d):
Infrastructure and Resources:
Local authority’s expenditure per resident (mean);
Government participation in local authority’s income – mean per resident;
Mean infrastructure development expenditure per resident in the irregular budget.
9 Indicators (cont’d)
Political and Social Attitudes:
Political affiliation;
The tribes’ stances on Judea and Samaria;
Willingness to form an Inclusive Israeli Society;
Equality of responsibilities and opportunities.
10 Data Presentation
The following graphs outline a comparison between the strongest/weakest local authorities, with respect to each tribe, in each sector, on each parameter.
11 Expenditure per pupil, in NIS, per year
Lowest Highest 14000 25000
12000 20000
10000 15000 8000
6000 10000
4000 5000
2000 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Umm al-Fahm Immanuel Nazareth Beiter Illit Efrat Haifa Gush Etzion Kiryat Shmona 12 Quality bagrut entitlement rate
Lowest Highest 70.00% 90.00%
80.00% 60.00% 70.00% 50.00% 60.00%
40.00% 50.00%
30.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 20.00% 10.00% 10.00%
0.00% 0.00% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Umm al-Fahm Sdot Negev Kiryat Shmona Nazareth Efrat Haifa 13 Number of pupils in class
Least crowded Most crowded 35 35
30 30
25 25
20 20
15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Baqa al-Gharbiyye Bnei Brak Nazareth Immanuel Sdot Negev Kiryat Shmona Karnei Shomron Beersheba 14 Expenditure per pupil & quality matriculation entitlement: comparative findings
The entitlement to quality matriculation certificates (bagrut) within the Secular and National-Religious local authorities is significantly higher than that among the Arab ones, aside from a number of outstanding local authorities.
At the lower expenditure levels, the expenditure of the Haredi and Arab tribes is not even half that of the Secular and National-Religious tribes.
There is a lack of data regarding this parameter in the Haredi tribe, whose rate of eligibility for quality bagrut has been known to be strikingly low. 15 Number of pupils in class: comparative findings
A positive trend of a decrease in the number of pupils in class has been observed in all local authorities.
Within the Arab local authorities, the number of pupils in class is highest.
Within the Haredi local authorities, the number of pupils in class is lowest.
16 Key Findings—Education
There are vast disparities in investment in education between the Secular and National-Religious tribes on the one hand, and the Haredi and Arab tribes on the other.
These disparities are clearly discernible in significant differences in entitlement to quality matriculation certificates (bagrut).
The implication is a widening of the future gaps in the earning ability of the members of the various tribes and the deepening of income inequality. In spite of a significant increase in expenditure per pupil in all tribes.
17 Employment rates among working-age groups
Lowest Highest 100.00% 100.00%
90.00% 90.00%
80.00% 80.00%
70.00% 70.00%
60.00% 60.00%
50.00% 50.00%
40.00% 40.00%
30.00% 30.00%
20.00% 20.00%
10.00% 10.00%
0.00% 0.00% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Rahat Modi'in Illit Kiryat Arba Beersheba Nazareth Bnei Brak Sdot Negev Eilat 18 Mean monthly wage per employee, in NIS, per year Lowest Highest 9000 10000
8000 9000
7000 8000 7000 6000 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000
2000 2000
1000 1000
0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Rahat Bnei Brak Kiryat Arba Beersheba Nazareth El'ad Efrat Haifa 19 Key Findings—Employment and Monthly Wages
Analyzing each tribe independently, a story of cross-tribal improvement in employment rates and monthly wages over time is revealed.
However, a comparative analysis clearly demonstrates that the disparities between the Secular and National-Religious tribes and the Arab and Haredi tribes have been persistent and even widened over the years.
The mean monthly wage per employee in the Secular & National- Religious local authorities is significantly higher (over 60%) than that in the Haredi & Arab local authorities. 20 Total local authorities’ expenditure per resident, in NIS, per year Lowest Highest 18000 20000 16000 14000 15000 12000 10000 10000 8000 6000 5000 4000 2000 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Baqa al-Gharbiyye Immanuel Rahat El'ad Efrat Beersheba Sdot Negev Eilat 21 Key Findings—Expenditure per resident
In the National-Religious local authorities, total expenditure per resident is more than three times that of the Haredi and Arab local authorities.
In the Secular local authorities, expenditure per resident is almost twice that of the Arab and Haredi local authorities.
Due to the Matching System, these disparities are even greater and the inequality is much deeper than can be immediately gleaned from the data presented. 22 Government participation in local authorities’ revenues per resident, in NIS, per year
Lowest Highest 6000 10000
5000 8000
4000 6000 3000 4000 2000 2000 1000 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Baqa al-Gharbiyye Immanuel Nazareth El'ad Efrat Beersheba Sdot Negev Kiryat Shmona 23 Government participation in local authorities’ revenues: comparative findings
Over time, there is a moderate increase in government participation in the weak local authorities of all tribes
However, among the National-Religious and Haredi local authorities, the government’s participation in local authorities’ revenues more than doubles its participation in Secular and Arab local authorities’ revenues.
24 Expenditure on infrastructure development in the irregular budget per resident, in NIS, per year
Lowest Highest 3000 7000 2500 6000 5000 2000 4000 1500 3000 1000 2000 500 1000 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Baqa al-Gharbiyye Immanuel Rahat Beitar Illit Karnei Shomron Eilat Sdor Negev Haifa 25 Expenditure on infrastructure development in the irregular budget: comparative findings
The infrastructure development expenditure in the irregular budget in the Secular and National-Religious local authorities, is much higher than that in the Arab and Haredi local authorities.
If this trend continues, the Haredi and Arab local authorities will continue to suffer from a gap in infrastructure which would only grow wider in the future.
This affects the ability to reduce inequality between Jews and Arabs as well as between the Secular and National-Religious tribes, on the one hand, and the Haredim, on the other. 26 The Four Tribes’ Political Worldviews
100% 2% 4% 10% 90% 19% 24% 80% 46% 70%
60% 46% Left 50% Center 88% 40% Right 72% 30% 50% 20% 35% 10%
0% 3% Secular National-Religious Haredi Arab 4 27 The Tribes’ Political Worldviews— Findings
As is known, a vast majority within the National-Religious and Haredi tribes defines itself as right-wing;
The Secular tribe is divided in its politics;
The Arab tribe affiliates itself mainly with the political left and center;
In Israel, religiosity levels clearly explain voting patterns. 28 Attitudes on ceasing Israeli control over Judea and Samaria The tribes’ stances
100% 84% 82% 80% Anti 65% Pro 60%
Anti 40% 34% 38%
20% 13% Anti 7% 8% Pro Pro 0% Pro Anti
Legend: Light – For; Dark – Against. 29 Attitudes on Ceasing Israeli Control Over Judea and Samaria—Findings
As a whole, the Israeli political right supports maintaining Israeli control over Judea and Samaria, while the left and center support the cessation of Israeli control over these territories.
Religion explains well opinions regarding cessation of Israeli control over Judea and Samaria, as shown in the previous slide. 30 The Tribes’ Attitudes on Equality, Rights, and Responsibilities The rate of those who specified “very much so + quite so” 100% 90% 80% 70% 67% 65% 60% 53% 54% 50% 45% 44% 39% 40% 40% 30% 20% 15% 16% 10% 8% 8% 0% The need for conditioning The need to reduce inequality The equality of responsibilities receiving resource distribution between the tribes and rights among the tribes rights on the performance of responsibilities Secular National-Religious Haredi Arab 31 The tribes’ stances on equality
Most of the public, members of all tribes, do not believe that Israel displays equality of rights and responsibilities.
A majority within the Arab tribe (as well as within the Secular and National-Religious tribes) support conditioning receiving resource distribution rights on the performance of responsibilities;
One of the most interesting and encouraging insights arising from the “New Israeli Order and an Inclusive Israeli Society” survey (Mintz and Elisha, 2016) is the desire of almost 50% within the Arab tribe, to integrate within the Israeli society. 32 Society in a new Israeli order The rate of those who specified “very much so + quite so” 100% 90% 80% 68% 70% 65% 60% 50% 47% 40% 40% 30% 20% 18% 11% 10% 7% 3% 0% Should education systems be united? Should equality be forced upon the tribes? Arab Haredi National-Religious Secular 33 Equality and inequality-Key findings (cont’d)
The inequality in investments in the future (education, infrastructure), might even deepen the disparities and lessen the possibility of realizing the vision of an Inclusive Israeli Society. In spite of the government resolution 922 “the five year plan for the minority population”, of December 2015, which comprises the allocation of 15 billion NIS to the Arab tribe. The resolution’s implementation has been conducted leisurely.
It seems that also with regard to investment in the future, the Secular and National-Religious tribes lead in great distance from the Haredi tribe, while the Arab tribe lags far behind. 34 Key Finding
The data over the years demonstrates a hierarchy between the various tribes.
The National-Religious tribe stands prime among those privileged by the economic, infrastructure, and educational boom in Israel on almost all parameters examined (infrastructure allocations, education, participation of government in local authorities’ revenues, number of pupils in class, entitlement to quality matriculation certificates); The Secular tribe ranks second on most examined parameters. The Haredi, the third
The Arab tribe – lingers far behind, on almost all parameters;
Parenthetically, all of the significant National-Religious urban local authorities are located within Judea and Samaria.
35 Key Research Insights
The paramount insight is that in the last decade, there has been no significant progress toward an Inclusive Israeli Society. On the contrary. The disparities between the various tribes have been growing wider. If this trend continues, we will move further away from the realization of the President’s vision. On a sectoral outlook, it would appear that each tribe is improving on all indicators. And yet: When we dis-aggregate total data to data per tribe, a different picture emerges: The findings regarding the tribes paint a grim picture of widening and deepening disparities. The aggregate level data masks, of course, many of these divisions and gaps. Israel moves forward, yet the disparities between the tribes are widening.
36 Conclusions
This research examined whether Israel is moving toward an Inclusive Israeli Society or toward separate tribes. The research shows that hitherto, we have been growing further away from the vision of the President of Israel. Israel’s national resilience is dependent on the creation and fostering of social capital and of a more equal society with greater social solidarity. In-order to advance an Inclusive Israeli Society, drastic policy changes must be implemented. These changes can only come from an institutional-systemic overall approach.