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National Power System Expansion Plan 2011 - 2030

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National Power System Expansion Plan 2011 - 2030 National Transmission and Despatch Company Limited National Power System Expansion Plan 2011 - 2030 Final Report Main Report 504760-01-MR 2011 Prepared by SNC-Lavalin International Inc . in association with National Engineering Services Pakistan (PVT) Limited NOTICE This document contains the expression of the professional opinion of SNC-Lavalin Inc. (“SLI”) as to the matters set out herein, using its professional judgment and reasonable care. It is to be read in the context of the agreement dated October 4, 2010 (the “Agreement”) between SLI and National Thermal Despatch Company (the “Client”), and the methodology, procedures and techniques used, SLI’s assumptions, and the circumstances and constraints under which its mandate was performed. This document is written solely for the purpose stated in the Agreement, and for the sole and exclusive benefit of the Client, whose remedies are limited to those set out in the Agreement. This document is meant to be read as a whole, and sections or parts thereof should thus not be read or relied upon out of context. Unless expressly stated otherwise, assumptions, data and information supplied by, or gathered from other sources (including the Client, other consultants, testing laboratories and equipment suppliers, etc.) upon which SLI’s opinion as set out herein is based has not been verified by SLI; SLI makes no representation as to its accuracy and disclaims all liability with respect thereto. 504760 © 2011 SNC-Lavalin Inc. All rights reserved T&D Division Confidential National Power Systems Expansion Plan LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND DEFINITIONS Abbreviations: ADB Asian Development Bank AEDB Alternative Energy Development Board cct-km Circuit-kilometre Consultant SNC-Lavalin, Transmission and Distribution Group DISCO Distribution Company DSM Demand Side Management GDP Gross Domestic Product GENCO Generation Company HPP Hydel (or Hydro) Power Project HSFO High-Sulphur Furnace Oil HVAC High Voltage Alternating Current HVDC High Voltage Direct Current IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers kA Kilo-ampere KESC Karachi Electric Supply Company km Kilometre KPT Karachi Port Trust kV Kilovolt MMcfd Million cubic feet per day MOU Memorandum of Understanding MT Metric Tonnes MTOE Million Tons of Oil Equivalent MVA Mega volt-amperes MWh Megawatt-hour or 1,000 kilowatt-hours NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory Authority NESPAK National Engineering Services Pakistan (Pvt) Limited NPP National Power Plan, prepared by Acres International Limited in 1994 NTDC National Transmission and Despatch Company OGDCL Oil and Gas Development Company Limited P.P. Power Project PAEC Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission PARCO Pak-Arab Refining Company PEPCO Pakistan Electric Power Company i National Power Systems Expansion Plan PPIB Private Power and Infrastructure Board PPL Pakistan Petroleum Limited PQA Port Qasim Authority PSO Pakistan State Oil PSS/E Power System Simulation RFO Residual Furnace Oil SIL Surge Impedance Load SNGPL Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Limited SSGCL Sui Southern Gas Company Limited SYPCO Generation planning software (System Production Costing) TAVANIR The Iranian Electric Utility WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority ii TABLE OF CONTENTS National Power System Expansion Plan TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................1-1 1.1 Objective of the National Power Systems Expansion Plan .........................................1-1 1.2 Scope of Work ............................................................................................................1-2 1.3 Structure of the report ................................................................................................1-2 2 POWER SECTOR ENVIRONMENT IN PAKISTAN ...............................................2-1 2.1 Economy and the Energy Sector ................................................................................2-1 2.2 Characteristics of the Energy Sector in Pakistan ........................................................2-1 2.3 The Current Power System ........................................................................................2-2 3 SYSTEM PLANNING CRITERIA ...........................................................................3-1 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................3-1 3.2 Economic and Financial Parameters ..........................................................................3-1 3.3 Generation Planning Criteria ......................................................................................3-2 3.4 Environmental Criteria ................................................................................................3-3 3.4.1 Thermal Generation Projects ...................................................................................3-3 3.4.2 Hydroelectric Generation Projects ...........................................................................3-4 3.4.3 Transmission Projects ..............................................................................................3-5 3.5 Transmission Planning Criteria ...................................................................................3-6 3.5.1 Contingency Conditions ...........................................................................................3-6 3.5.2 Component Loading .................................................................................................3-6 3.5.3 Voltage .....................................................................................................................3-7 3.6 Distribution Planning Criteria ......................................................................................3-7 3.6.1 System Voltage Criteria ...........................................................................................3-7 3.6.2 Equipment Thermal Loading Criteria ........................................................................3-8 3.7 Financial Planning Criteria ..........................................................................................3-8 4 POWER DEMAND.................................................................................................4-1 4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................4-1 4.2 Issues related to the load forecast ..............................................................................4-1 4.2.1 Load Shedding .........................................................................................................4-1 4.2.2 Transmission and Distribution Losses ......................................................................4-2 4.2.3 System Load Factor .................................................................................................4-4 4.2.4 Load Characteristics ................................................................................................4-6 4.2.5 Demand Side Management ......................................................................................4-7 4.3 Approach and Methodology ........................................................................................4-7 4.3.1 General ....................................................................................................................4-7 4.3.2 Medium-Term Forecast ............................................................................................4-8 4.3.3 Long Term Forecast .................................................................................................4-9 4.4 Key Independent Variables ......................................................................................4 -10 4.4.1 Projections of Independent Variables .....................................................................4 -11 504760-01-MR i Main Report National Power System Expansion Plan 4.5 Load Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 -13 4.5.1 Sales Forecasts ....................................................................................................4 -13 4.5.2 Generation Forecast ..............................................................................................4 -15 4.5.3 Forecast with DSM ................................................................................................. 4-16 4.5.4 Summary of Forecasts ...........................................................................................4 -19 5 FUEL SUPPLY, PORT HANDLING AND FUEL PRICING ....................................5-1 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................5-1 5.2 Fuel Supply ................................................................................................................5-1 5.2.1 Natural Gas ..............................................................................................................5-1 5.2.2 Fuel Oil ....................................................................................................................5-5 5.2.3 Coal .........................................................................................................................5-6 5.3 Capacity of Ports and Fuel Logistics ...........................................................................5-7 5.4 Pricing of Fuels ..........................................................................................................5-9
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