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A Sustainable Resolution to the Energy Crisis

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A Sustainable Resolution to the Energy Crisis IPR INSTITUTE FOR POLICY REFORMSREFORMS REPORT April 2015 Putting Power Back on Track:Track: A Sustainable Resolution to the Energy Crisis Ashraf M. Hayat Summary DespiteDespite repeated commitmentscommitments expressed by governments to resolve the About The Author country'scountry’s energy crisis there hashas beenbeen nono improvementimprovement inin powerpower supply.supply. Ashraf M. Hayat is a former civil servant Successive governmentsgovernments have have not not comecome to to gripsgrips withwith the sector'ssector’s deepdeep and Executive Director IPR and Executive Director IPR structural, policy,policy, and governancegovernance challenges. TheyThey alsoalso havehave notnot taken the seeminglyseemingly simpler route of administrative measures to reducereduce lineline losses in DISCOs andand ease cash flowflow inin thethe sector.sector. This is the contextcontext ofof this IPRIPR ReportReport whosewhose objectivesobjectives are asas follows:follows: • Recommend waysways toto enhanceenhance powerpower supply supply in in the the shortshort termterm • Propose policiespolicies and and plansplans thatthat wouldwould place the power sector on a sustainable pathpath ofof growth About IPR While thethe report recommends severalseveral shortshort and medium term measures Institute forfor PolicyPolicy Reforms isis anan to enhanceenhance power supplysupply inin the country,country, it determinesdetermines thatthat probityprobity independent and non-partisannon-partisan thinkthink tank establishedestablished under SectionSection 4242 and rectituderectitude inin governmentgovernment decision makingmaking isis key to having a viableviable of thethe CompaniesCompanies Ordinance.Ordinance. IPRIPR power sector. Weak governance leadsleads toto high project cost, revenue lossloss places premium on practical solutions. Its missionmission is to workwork forfor stabilitystability and in thethe system,system, andand capturecapture ofof statestate decision-making decision-making by interest groups.groups. prosperity of Pakistan and for globalglobal Governance improvementimprovement isis oneone ofof thethe key issues in resolving the powerpower peace and security.security. IPRIPR operationsoperations are supported by guarantees from the crisis. corporate sector. Cost of electricelectric shortage shortage isis high. high. NEPRA estimatesestimates annualannual loss at between 2 to 3 percentpercent ofof GDP. Another studystudy estimates it atat aa highhigh 5% 5% ofof GDP.GDP. Moodys has has warnedwarned that powerpower shortageshortage willwill affectaffect Pakistan'sPakistan’s creditcredit worthiness. The power crisiscrisis alsoalso isis aa potential source ofof instabilityinstability thatthat can exacerbate latent discontent. The electric power sectorsector sufferssuffers fromfrom aa largelarge numbernumber of issues.issues. InIn additionaddition to weak governance, itsits incentive structure isis flawed,flawed, public public investment investment is skewed,skewed, andand investmentinvestment cannotcannot recoverrecover cost,cost, requiringrequiring subsidysubsidy forfor Copyright: consumers and fiscal incentivesincentives forfor investors.investors. DespiteDespite publicpublic statements,statements, No partpart ofof thisthis publicationpublication may be government does not give energyenergy sectorsector thethe prioritypriority it deserves. reproduced or transmitted in any form or by anyany meansmeans withoutwithout permissionpermission There is aa historyhistory ofof powerpower shortage, though in termsterms ofof hourshours ofof loadload in writing from the Institute for Policy in writing from the Institute for Policy shedding, the intensity of the present crisis is unprecedented. It began in Reforms shedding, the intensity of the present crisis is unprecedented. It began in 2007 when world energyenergy pricesprices increasedincreased manifolds. ItsIts genesis lies with the powerpower policypolicy of 1994.1994. ThisThis policy effectivelyeffectively shifted shifted thethe mainmain source of powerpower supplysupply fromfrom hydropowerhydropower to to thermalthermal energy with Board of Directors concomitant reliancereliance onon imported fuel. Increase in energyenergy priceprice Mr.Mr. Humayun Akhtar Khan, Chairman in the lastlast twotwo decadesdecades meant higherhigher costcost per unit (energy(energy prices Dr. Hafiz A.A. Pasha,Pasha, ManagingManaging DirectorDirector have declined 50% inin recentrecent months).months). PricePrice increaseincrease hadhad aa telling Mr. Haroon Akhtar Khan effect onon the sustainability ofof thethe sector.sector. TheThe mainmain objectiveobjective ofof Dr. Khalida Ghaus 1994 policy waswas toto attract privateprivate investment.investment. Currently,Currently, 36%36% Mr. Ashraf M. Hayat of generationgeneration isis inin thethe private sector, butbut it came at a highhigh costcost for the economyeconomy withwith the governmentgovernment providingproviding large-scalelarge-scale fiscalfiscal incentives andand guarantees.guarantees. In addition, it resulted inin high reliance on imported energy. Despite current low prices,prices, thethe countrycountry cannotcannot afford the extent to which it depends on imported energy if it is to meet current and future demands. Apart from initiallyinitially attractingattracting private investment, thethe 19941994 policypolicy did not achieve its declareddeclared objectives ofof resolvingresolving powerpower shortage, adding overover 50,00050,000 MWMW capacity, or improving accessaccess toto electricity. BecauseBecause ofof itit and Board of Advisors continued weak policy, tarifftariff andand power shortageshortage both increased. Lt. Gen (R) Sikander Afzal Dr. ManzoorManzoorAhmad Ahmad Already weak, governance worsened during the decadedecade ofof 1990s Mr. Munawar Baseer and has hardly improved.improved. It manifests itselfitself in high line losses andand Ms. Roshan Bharucha under recoveryrecovery of billed amount.amount. Weak governance also reflects inin Mr. Shakil Durrani poorly conceivedconceived policy policy and and in in capturecapture ofof statestate decision making Mr. Hussain Haroon by interest groups.groups. SinceSince the 1990s,1990s, public power generationgeneration has Dr. Iqrarlqrar Ahmad Khan suffered from aa lacklack of of attention attention and and transmission transmission andand distributiondistribution Mr. Tasneem Noorani systems have remained weak.weak. HighHigh distributiondistribution losseslosses depriveddeprived Mr. Tariq Parvez the powerpower supply system of cash flows andand diddid notnot allow allow capitalcapital Mr. Salman Raja formation forfor investmentinvestment inin the system.system. SkewedSkewed priorities in Dr. Atta-ur-Rehman Dr. Atta-ur-Rehman public investment meant growing allocation forfor roadsroads and not Dr. Abid Suleri enough for the power sector. Mr. Abdullah Yousaf Mr. Moeed Yousaf Government’sGovernment's policypolicy response response has has beenbeen inadequate. While the whole power supplysupply chainchain needs reforms, GOP'sGOP’s focus isis entirely on generation and,and, untiluntil recently, onon increaseincrease inin tariff.tariff. ItIt has focused onon ambitiousambitious foreignforeign investmentinvestment toto increase generation. IPR agrees with government'sgovernment’s effortsefforts toto increaseincrease thethe share ofof coal inin total power generation. Government thoughthough mustmust ensure transparency in implementationimplementation andand on thethe feasibilityfeasibility ofof newnew projects or else they will have the same deleterious effect on the http://ipr.org.pk sector as the earlier private projects. https://www.facebook.com/InstituteforP The policy toto increaseincrease tarifftariff has made electricity unaffordable for olicyReforms https://twitter.com/IPR_Pakistan low –— middle middle income income consumers, consumers, affects affects business business competitiveness,competitiveness, 4- Shami Road, and hashas incentivizedincentivized poorpoor governance.governance. The elasticity of revenue Lahore Cantt, gains to each unit of tariff increase is 0.6. Pakistan Similarly, thethe approach to circular debt lackslacks depth.depth. CircularCircular debt isis anan outcome outcome ofof governancegovernance andand policypolicy flaws.flaws. One-time One-time payments cannot make it gogo away without fixing itsits causes. causes. InIn 2013, governmentgovernment mademade aa one-time paymentpayment toto settlesettle it, hoping unreasonably, that thethe problemproblem wouldwould disappear. Since then,then, it has growngrown again. In fact, the problemproblem reared in full force inin January 20152015 in the shape ofof the petrol crisis. The source of circularcircular debtdebt lieslies inin Government’sGovernment's currentcurrent tarifftariff and subsidy policy. It encourages distortions andand allows allows inefficiencies.inefficiencies. By By absorbingabsorbing allall systemsystem deficits,deficits, it it does does nothing nothing to improve DISCO performance.performance. OnOn thethe oneone hand,hand, circular debt clogsclogs cash flow resultingresulting in in production production below capacity,capacity, andand onon thethe other,other, because ofof capacitycapacity guarantees, guarantees, governmentgovernment mustmust ultimatelyultimately pay the amount due with mark-up forfor power that waswas never produced. Government’sGovernment's responseresponse toto thethe recent decline inin fuel input cost is revealing.revealing. This could have been an opportunity to fix thethe tarifftariff policy.policy.
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