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Data Collection Survey on Infrastructure Improvement of Energy Sector in Islamic Republic of Pakistan

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Data Collection Survey on Infrastructure Improvement of Energy Sector in Islamic Republic of Pakistan ←ボックス隠してある Pakistan by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Data Collection Survey on Infrastructure Improvement of Energy Sector in Islamic Republic of Pakistan Data Collection Survey ←文字上 / 上から 70mm on Infrastructure Improvement of Energy Sector in Pakistan by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Final Report Final Report February 2014 February 2014 ←文字上 / 下から 70mm Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. 4R JR 14-020 ←ボックス隠してある Pakistan by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Data Collection Survey on Infrastructure Improvement of Energy Sector in Islamic Republic of Pakistan Data Collection Survey ←文字上 / 上から 70mm on Infrastructure Improvement of Energy Sector in Pakistan by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Final Report Final Report February 2014 February 2014 ←文字上 / 下から 70mm Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. 4R JR 14-020 Data Collection Survey on Infrastructure Improvement of Energy Sector in Pakistan Final Report Location Map Islamabad Capital Territory Punjab Province Islamic Republic of Pakistan Sindh Province Source: Prepared by the JICA Survey Team based on the map on http://www.freemap.jp/. February 2014 i Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Data Collection Survey on Infrastructure Improvement of Energy Sector in Pakistan Final Report Summary Objectives and Scope of the Survey This survey aims to collect data and information in order to explore the possibility of cooperation with Japan for the improvement of the power sector in Pakistan. The scope of the survey is: Survey on Pakistan’s current power supply situation and review of its demand forecast; Survey on the power development policy, plan, and institution of the Government of Pakistan (GOP) and its related companies; Survey on the primary energy in Pakistan; Survey on transmission/distribution and grid connection; and Survey on activities of other donors and the private sector. The target areas of the survey are: Islamabad Capital Territory; Punjab Province; and Sindh Province. Issues of National Grid The total generation capacity available in the national system remains at 75% of the total installed capacity (20,839 MW), which is 15,629 MW, throughout the year. There is a gap of 6,000 MW in available power supply and demand. This is a main issue of the national grid. However, this situation will not be improved anytime soon. Issues of Distribution All Distribution Companies (DISCOs) are fighting to control their losses. Many of them have high losses in the distribution network. The State of Industry Report 2012 provides a breakdown of losses. From that, it is clear that each DISCO has high losses in lines under the “11 kV and below” category. Water pumping sets are widely used in Pakistan in order to draw water from deep tube wells. In rural areas, tube well pumps are used for irrigation purpose. Most of these pumps belong to farmers that do not consider the efficiency of the pumps. DISCOs believe that the electricity connections provided to tube well consumers are not metered properly. Due to the use of electric motors with less efficiency and low power factor, tube well loads contribute in increasing the losses of the distribution system. Load Shedding There is a huge imbalance between the supply and demand of electricity in the national grid. Around 30% of the electricity demand is not sufficient for regular supply of electricity to all the consumers. With the current expansion plans and progress on the implementation of ongoing February 2014 ii Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Data Collection Survey on Infrastructure Improvement of Energy Sector in Pakistan Final Report projects, it is expected that the crisis in the power sector would continue well beyond 2020, unless major hydropower plants and base load power generation on coal are introduced along with the development of coal mines in the country. Load shedding has become a part of life and will remain for quite a long period. Primary Energy for Electric Power Generation The total primary energy supply in Pakistan was 64,727,000 ton of oil equivalent (TOE) in the year 2011/12. The final energy consumption was 40,026,000 TOE and out of that the consumption of electricity was 6,251,000 TOE in the same year. In order to supply this electricity to the end consumers, the total input of energy, including the transformation losses, the own use, and the transmission and distribution losses, is calculated as 22,312,000 TOE. This means that only 28% of the total input energy was received by the end consumers of electricity. The total supply of oil in 2011/12 was 21,240,000 TOE. The share of domestic oil production to the total supply in the same year remains only at 16%. The total domestic gas production in 2011/12 stood at 32,000,000 TOE. At present, natural gas is not imported from any countries. The total estimated natural gas potential of the country is 282,000 billion cubic feet (BCF), of which only 24,000 BCF is recoverable. During the year 2011/12, the total gas production was 1,559 BCF. Even if the production remains at the level in 2011/12, the recoverable potential of domestic natural gas: 24,000 BCF will be dried up within 15 years. The imported coal is more than locally produced coal; imported coal is 2,669,000 TOE and local coal is 1,616,000 TOE in 2011/12. The major users of coal are the cement and brick kiln sectors. About 58% of the total coal was consumed by cement sector while 41% was consumed by the brick kiln industry in 2011/12. The electric power sector share in consumption is small: 1.4% in 2011/12. The hydropower potential of Pakistan is estimated at around 60,000 MW while the installed capacity is 6,555 MW in 2011/12. The total estimated wind power potential is approximately 340,000 MW. Regarding solar power, the entire Pakistan has a high potential. In particular, Baluchistan, Sindh, and Southern Punjab provinces receive solar radiation of over 2 MWh/m2 per year. Recommended Projects for Japanese Official Assistance The Project of Solar Power Generation Effective for Loss Reduction in Multan Area (hereinafter referred to as the Multan solar project) was selected as the most appropriate to be recommended for Japanese official assistance. This project is scattered solar generation project of which the maximum capacity of one solar generation unit is around 1 MW. The total number of scattered solar generation unit is planned to be around 100. Solar panels are designed to be installed over the irrigation canals and each solar generation unit will be connected to 11 kV feeder of MEPCO’s distribution network. The expected outcomes of this project are: February 2014 iii Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Data Collection Survey on Infrastructure Improvement of Energy Sector in Pakistan Final Report Reducing losses in 11 kV feeders and total distribution network; Increasing voltage profile; Mitigating electricity supply shortage; and Postponing investment timing on overloaded facilities. Recommendations The Government of Punjab Province and MEPCO understood the concept of the Multan solar project well and agreed to proceed with the project. Besides, the officials of the Government of Punjab Province and MOWP became aware of the necessity of applying Japanese technology and products for the Multan solar project. In order to maintain this situation, it is recommended to continuously conduct promotional activities. Solar modules will be installed over canals by the Multan solar project. Electricity generated by the solar modules will be injected to 11 kV feeders. By this project feature, it is essential to identify the exact locations where 11 kV feeders cross over canals or installed as close to canals in the project design. In the preparatory survey of the Multan solar project, it is recommended to create a digital topographic map to identify the exact location of canals and 11 kV feeders from satellite images with the land survey for 11 kV lines by Global Positioning System (GPS). The installation of PV modules over canals is still not popular around the world and the concept to reduce distribution losses using solar generation is a new idea in Pakistan. Therefore, the design and bid documents should be prepared carefully. Thus, it is recommended to carry out the detailed design under Japanese grant aid program. Besides, in case that the implementation of the project by yen loan is suspended, it is recommended to implement the project by utilizing grant aid program. February 2014 iv Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Data Collection Survey on Infrastructure Improvement of Energy Sector in Pakistan Final Report Table of Contents Location Map .......................................................................................................................................... i Summary ......................................................................................................................................... ii Table of Contents ..................................................................................................................................... v List of Figures ....................................................................................................................................... vii List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................ ix Abbreviation ........................................................................................................................................
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