THE DYNAMICS OF SMALL ARMS TRANSFERS IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN INSURGENCIES A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Political Science in the University of Canterbury by Hamish K. Wall University of Canterbury 2006 ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This thesis was made possible by a scholarship from the Marsden Funding granted to Professor Jacob Bercovitch in order to study internal conflicts and their management in the Asia-Pacific region. As such this study represents one aspect of internal conflict in the Asia-Pacific region. My initial supervisor Dr. Karl DeRouen Jr. provided me with invaluable comments, and was of immense help in the early stages of my thesis. Despite shifting to another university Karl continued in reading over my work and was always encouraging in his remarks. I would also like to thank Dr. Alex Tan, who replaced Karl as my supervisor, and was of great help through the latter parts of my thesis. Thanks must also go out to Professor Jacob Bercovitch, who provided me with advice and encouragement along the way. Lastly, I would like to express my thanks to Jill Dolby, who has incredible patience, and keeps the political science department running. I would also like to thank all my family and friends who have helped me along the way, especially my Mother and Father. Special mention must also be made to my Grandfather, who read over a couple of my drafts, and was helpful in making sure that it made sense to someone from a non-academic background. A big thank you must also go out to those I have shared an office with and also all those involved in the Political Science department, past and present. Lastly, but not least, I would like to thank my Amanda, who has helped me share the burden of doing a thesis, and for her constant support in all aspects of my life. iii ABSTRACT This thesis is an attempt to fill the theoretical and empirical gap that exists in current small arms literature, which has failed to examine and identify the different aspects that are involved with small arms transfers in Southeast insurgencies. Small arms not only play a significant role in all internal conflicts throughout the world, but they are of particular concern right through Asia, where civil wars have tended to last longer than those in any other region. This study uses a comprehensive dataset that defines active armed conflict in Southeast Asia during 2002. This has allowed for the detailed analysis of three countries within Southeast Asia, where government forces have been involved in active armed conflict with insurgent groups. Important aspects of this thesis include; the analysis of external and internal sources insurgent groups are able to secure both financially and militarily; the most important sources of supply for insurgent groups obtaining small arms; and how the supply, use and accumulation of these small arms by insurgent groups have affected internal conflict. This study suggests that internal sources, rather than external sources, are more important for insurgent groups in securing forms of finances and weaponry. The most important sources of supply for obtaining small arms would also tend to come from internal sources. Furthermore, it is likely that variables of intra-state conflicts, such as duration and intensity, have been highly affected by small arms usage. This thesis concludes by suggesting that the study of how insurgent groups obtain different forms of finances and resources is equally as important as the analysis of how insurgent groups obtain small arms. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Titles i Acknowledgements ii Abstract iii Table of Contents iv List of Figures vi List of Tables vii List of Acronyms viii Chapter 1: UNDERSTANDING THE ROLE SMALL ARMS PLAY WITHIN INTRA STATE CONFLICT 1 1.1 Introduction: The Effects of Small Arms in Intra-State Conflicts 1.2 The Problems Associated with Small Arms Transfers to Insurgent Groups in Southeast Asia 3 1.3 Conceptual Clarifications 8 1.4 Key Questions and Design of the Study 13 1.5 A Preview of this Thesis 18 Chapter 2: EXAMINING EXISTING RESEARCH ON THE EFFECTS OF SMALL ARMS WITHIN INTRA-STATE CONFLCT 2.1 Small Arms in Intra-State Conflict: A Framework for Evaluation 20 2.2 Small Arms and Intra-State Conflict: Current Research and Literature 24 2.3 Small Arms Literature 25 2.4 Intra-State Conflict Literature 36 2.5 Small Arms and Intra-State Conflicts within Southeast Asia 40 2.6 Summary on the Current State of the Literature and Research Methodologies 43 v Chapter 3: BURMA/MYANMAR 3.1 The Historical Background to Conflict in Burma 46 3.2 The Growing Use of Commodities and Contraband in Burma to Fund Conflict 48 3.3 The Karen National Union (KNU) 50 3.4 The Shan State Army (SSA) 58 3.5 Conclusion and the Analysis of Key Questions on Burma 62 Chapter 4: INDONESIA 4.1 The Historical Background to Conflict in Indonesia 65 4.2 The Growing Gun Culture in Indonesia 67 4.3 Gerakan Aceh Meredeka: Free Aceh Movement (GAM) 68 4.4 Conclusion and the Analysis of key Questions on Indonesia 76 Chapter 5: THE PHILIPPINES 5.1 The Historical Background to Conflict in the Philippines 79 5.2 The Relative Ease of Acquiring Small Arms in the Philippines 81 5.3 The Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) 83 5.4 The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) 89 5.5 The New Peoples Army (NPA) 95 5.6 Conclusion and the Analysis of Key Questions on the Philippines 102 Chapter 6: CONCLUSION 6.1 The Influence of Small Arms in Intra-State Conflict within Burma, Indonesia and the Philippines 106 6.2 Conclusion and Possible Policy Recommendations for Curbing the Use of Small Arms by Non-State Actors in Southeast Asia 120 References 123 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 Breakdown of Variables Used to Analyse the Insurgent Groups 17 Figure 2.1 The ‘Proliferation’ Model 21 Figure 2.2 The ‘Diffusion’ Model 23 Figure 6.1 The Continuous Conflict Cycle 109 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 Opportunities and Constraints of Three Modes of Arms Acquisition 35 Table 3.1 Summary of KNU and SSA External and Internal Sources 63 Table 4.1 Summary of GAM External and Internal Sources 77 Table 5.1 Summary of MNLF, MILF and NPA External and Internal Sources 103 Table 6.1 Overall Summary of External Finance and Resources 111 Table 6.2 Overall Summary of Internal Finance and Resources 112 Table 6.3 Overall Summary of External and Internal Sources of Small Arms 115 viii LIST OF ACRONYMS AFP Philippine Armed Forces AGAM Angkatan Gerakan Aceh Merdeka ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASG Abu Sayyaf Group ASNLF Aceh Sumatra National Liberation Front CIA Central Intelligence Agency CPB Communist Party of Burma CPP Communist Party of the Philippines DEA Drug Enforcement Agency DKBA Democratic Karen Buddhist Army GAM Gerakan Aceh Movement (Free Aceh Movement) KIA Kachin Independence Organisation KNA Karen National Association KNDO Karen National Defence Organisation KNLA Karen National Liberation Army KNU Karen National Union KNUF Karen National United Front MILF Moro Islamic Liberation Front MNLF Moro National Liberation Front NDF National Democratic Front NISAT Norwegian Institute of Small Arms Transfers NPA New Peoples Army PCTC Philippine Centre for Transnational Crime PLO Palestine Liberation Organisation SEA Southeast Asia SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SPDC State Peace and Development Council SLORC State Law and Order Restoration Council SSA Shan State Army ix SSA-S Shan State Army-South SSPP Shan State Progress Party TNI Indonesian Armed Forces UN United Nations UWSA United Wa State Army Chapter 1 1 Chapter 1 UNDERSTANDING THE ROLE SMALL ARMS PLAY WITHIN INTRA-STATE CONFLICT 1.1 Introduction: The Effects of Small Arms Use in Intra-State Conflicts Small arms in the 21st century pose a major problem for countries that are easily susceptible to internal conflict. Small arms give non-state actors the ability to initiate and carry out continuing armed violence, through the use of these particular weapons. Access to small arms by insurgent groups is a key variable in the conflict cycle of an internal conflict. It is this access of supply that allows non-state actors the ability to continue fighting in internal conflict. While demand for small arms in internal conflict usually exceeds supply, it is this supply of weaponry that is crucial for insurgent groups to effectively wage civil war against a sovereign government. Without any form of small arms supply non-state actors remain powerless in their goal to defeat government forces. Small arms establish a threat to state survival in weak or failing states, as highlighted by Klare (2004) who states, “it means that antigovernment formations can readily assemble sufficient weaponry to mount a revolution or insurgency” (ibid:123). Small arms have many distinctive features according to Klare (2004) that make them attractive to ethnic militias, insurgent forces, criminal bands and other paramilitary forces. They are light weight allowing a solider to move on foot more easily, they are small meaning they are easy to hide and conceal, and they are readily affordable and available (ibid:123). It is these characteristics alone that allow small arms to be a decisive factor within internal conflicts. As Klare (2004) states, “for all these reasons – ease of operation, lightness, affordability, concealability global availability – small arms and light weapons constitute the principal instrument of violence in all of the internal conflicts of the post Cold War era” (ibid:125). Chapter 1 2 Small arms are responsible for as “much as 90% of the casualties in current regional conflicts and civil wars” (Erwin, 1998 cited in Sislin and Pearson, 2001:17).