DOCSLIB.ORG

Introduction to Political Risk Analysis. Learning Packages in the Policy Sciences, PS-24

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Introduction to Political Risk Analysis. Learning Packages in the Policy Sciences, PS-24 DOCUMENT RESUME ED 247 186 SO 015 806 AUTHOR Coplin, William D.; O'Leary; Michael K. g TITLE Introduction to Political Risk Analysis. Learning Packages in the Policy Sciences, PS-24. :NST1TUTIOR Policy Studies Associates, Croton-on-Hudson, NY. REPORT NO ISBN-0-936826-19-3 PUB DATE 83 NOTE 121p. AVAILABLE FROMPolicy Studies Associates, P.O. Box 337, Croton-on-Hudson, NY 10520 ($5.75). PUB TYPE Guides - Classroom Use Materials (For Learner) (051) 0 EARS -PRICE MF01 Plus Postage. PC Not Available from EDRS. DeSCRIPTORS Annotated Bibliographies; Charts; Comparative. Analysis; Decision Making; Higher Education; International Relations; Learning Modules; Measurement Techniques; *Political Influences; 0 Prediction; *Predictive Measurement; *Risk; Tables IDENTIFIERS ypt; *Political Analysis; Prince System; World P itical Risk Forecast ABSTRACT This package introduces college students to the kind of analysis that multinational corporations undertake to assess risks to their business operations due to political and economic conditions. Designed to be completed in 3 weeks, the four exercises enable students to (1) identify the major sources of political risk; (2) determine what social, economic, political, and geographical background factors need to be considered in conducting a political risk analysis; (3) forecast the likelihood of a change in regift, occurrence of political turmoil, or restrictions on international business; and (4) calculate risk ratings that can be used to compare the relative risks in different countries. The methods presented are those develope6 by the authors for Frost and Sullivan's "World Political Risk Forecast," which uses country studies produced by experts. An annotated bibliography and sample country study on Egypt (1983) from Frost and Sullivan's service are included in the appendices, which comprise over half the document. In addition, students are provided with Prince charts (a system for making political forecasts and devising strategies), decision structure' charts, a description of. risk ratings for three business sectors, a summary of an 18-month forecast, and a worksheet for calculations. (LH) *********************************************************************** Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be, made from the original document. *********************************************************************** LEARNING: PACKAGES IN U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF EDUCATION EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CENTER IERICI THEPOLICY SCIENCES H This document has been reproduced as 1, received from the person or organization )(originating Minor changes have been made to improve reproduction quality. Points of view or opinions stated in this docu ment do not necessarily represent official NIE position or policy. "PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE THIS MATERIAL IN MICROFICHE ONLY HAS BEEN ANTED BY INTRODUCTI ON TO TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES PQLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS , INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC)." bY William D. Coplin and Michael L O'Leary .POLICY STUDIES ASSOCIATES INTRODUCTION TO POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS by - WilliamD. Coplin and Michael K. O'Leary Portions of this package arereproduced with the permission of Frost & Sullivan,Inc., New York V V LEARNING PACKAGES IN THEPOLICY SCIENCES PS-24 Policy Studies Associates P. 0. Box 337 Croton-on-Hudson, NY 10520 VPublic Affairs Program,Syracuse University, 1983 ISBN 0-936826-19-3 TO THE INSTRUCTOR ANDSTUDENTS ON THE OBJECTIVES AND MATERIALS: THE PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: This package will provideyou with the is you will need to conduct a generalpolitical, risiinalysison any country._ 4 UPON COMPLETION OF THIS PACKAGE,YOU WILL BE ABLE TO: Identify the majorsources of political risk.: Determine what social, economic,political, and geo- traphical background factorsneed to be considered in conducting a political riskanalysis. Forecast the -likelihood ofa change, in regime, occur- rence of political turmoil, restrictionson internation- al business and trade,or other government decisions that might affect internationalbusiness. Calculate,risk ratings thatcan be used to, compare the relative risks in differentcountries. T:Th ee /7eks. t ii TABLE OF CONTENTS. LISTING OF FIGURESAND TABLES iv CHAPTER I: WHAT IS' POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS? A. Regime Change 2. B. Political Turmoil 4 C. Government Restrictions D. Economic Policies EXERCISE 1 8 CHAPTER II: GUIDELINES FOR A GENERAL COUNTRY STUDY EXERCISE 2 16 CHAPTER III: MAKIN 9 POLITICAL FORECASTS WITH THE PRINCE SYSTEM 17 A. Prince Charts 19 B. Decision Structure Charts 20 24 C.. Probability Calculations D. 'Using the Prince Model 26 EXERCISE 3 32 CHAPTERAt. CALCULATING A RISK RATING 35 A. Meaning of the Indicators 35 B. Calculating Risk Indicators 37 EXERCISE 4 40 APPENDIX I: ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY ON POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS 43 APPENDIX II: SAMPLE COUNTRY REPORT'-- EGYPT 55 iii r. LISTING OF FIGURES.AND TABLES , Figure1: PtOce,Chart: The Continuation of 'the Marcos Megime (Actors' Positions) 21 Figure2 Decision Structure: The Continuation of, the Marcos Regime 23 Figure3: Prince Chart: The Continuation of the Marcos. Regime (Probapility EqUation) ,25. TABLE1: DESCRIPTION OF RISK RATINGS FOR THREE,BUSINESS SECTORS '36 TABLE2: SUMMARY OF EIGHTEEN -MONTH°FORECAST 38 TABLE WORKSHEET FOR CALCULATIONS 39 CHAPTER I: WHAT IS. P6 ITICAL RISK ANALYSIS? . .., The term "politicalrisk analysig" is used to identify the .analysis of political events. and conditions that could, cau e loss to internationalbusiness.*It is usually con-. dUcted bybusinessmen or outside consultants to determine what precaUtions,they should_Aake inprotecting their businesliinvestmets. The study of political risk analysits isusefUl to Under- graduate and graduate social science students becauseit is . an example of, "applied socialscience." Along with public opinion polls used to guide' election candidatesand econo- metric techniques to forecast businesstrends, political risk analysis represents the integration of academictheory and method with the practical-need ofdecision-makers. Un- fortunately, like :the other applied social sciencetools, political risk aRAlysis does not have theprecision and legitimacy of the engineering and natural sciences. However, it still represents a systematicapproach to collecting and analyzing information so that people can make more decisions. Political risk analysis is used in a widevariety of ways. Some analySts find it valuable inhelping them to estimate commodity and currency prices. For example; the Falklands war in Argentina could have slowed theshipment of wheat from Argentina and therefore haveled to increased wheat prices. The election of a left (wing governmentusually means that the currency ofthat country will decline. Banks use political risk analysis tohelp them decide how much money to lend a'country. Although they may decide to lend` money to a country where politicalinstability is forecasted, the knowledge that such instability is arisk will help them deCide how much 'interest-to charge and how manyother banks they should gettp help them share the risk. Companies that export goods to a buyer in another country areworried about 'whether or not they will receive paymentfor the goods. They have credit managers whose job it is toestimate the risk of non-payment or payment delays, and to securebank guarantees or' whatever is necessary tomake sure the payment is received. 1 2 Countries like Zambia and Turkey havepayment delays of up to two years in part because ofpolitical problems. Other individuals in corporations thatuse political risk analysis include marketing people whoseresponsibilities are to see where their products might be sold,risk managers who buy political risk insurance to protectinvestments, corporate security officers whose responsibilityit is to insure the safety of employees and propertyof their company, and stra- tegic planners whqOadvise thecorporation-on what new busi- ness opportunities and risks existover the long run. There are so many uses for politicalrisk analysis that most high-level government andbusiness officials think about political riskson a day-to-day basj.s. It is often necessary to produce general country studiesthat all of those concernedcan read in orderto get the necessary back- ground to ask specific questionsabout their own particular problem. Once they do this, they then conductanalyses on more specific questions. The tools presented in this learn- ing package can be used for bothgeneral and specific analy- ses. In the remainder of this chapter,we will identify four, sources of political risks: 1 A. Regime Change B. Political Turmoil C. Government Restrictions D. Econoknic Policies Each has a different iipacton international busidesses. `v. A. 'Regime Change 4 A change in regime refers toa major shift in the poli- tical leaders responsible for runningthe country. The / change may occur through scheduledelections or through such extra legal methodsas 'assassination, military'coup_, orrevo- lution. (In some countries, ofcourse, the extra legal and the legitimate blend intoone. Bolivia has had nearly 200 regime changes during,t0years of independence.) The threat posed by regime changeis both the circum- stances surrounding the change itselfand the economic and political consequences resulting fromthe change. An extra legal change in government or a defensive reaction against , an attenIthed overthrow can disrupt normaleconomic activities. Banks, custom houses, and bordersmay be closed. Bureaucracies 8 3 7 can stop processing papers. In cases where a civil war
Load more

Recommended publications
  • العزائم والشيعة .. حوار مع شيخ الطريقة العزمية عن عالقته بإيران والشيعة متميز كتب بواسطة الطريقة العزمية نشرت فى بيانات وردود الجمعة, 51 آذار/مارس 3152 35:52
    العزائم والشيعة .. حوار مع شيخ الطريقة العزمية عن عﻻقته متميز بإيران والشيعة كتب بواسطة الطريقة العزمية نشرت فى بيانات وردود الجمعة, 51 آذار/مارس 3152 35:52 نظرا لما أثير حول عﻻقة السيد عﻻء الدين ماضى أبو العزائم شيخ الطريقة العزمية ورئيس الرابطة المصرية عن عﻻقته بإيران ، واتهامه بأنه يمثل بوابة التشيع فى مصر ، كان لموقع اﻹسﻻم وطن هذا الحوار مع سماحته لتتبين الحقائق ، بعيدا عن التحليﻻت والتأويﻻت .. لماذا ينتشر بين الناس أنكم بوابة التشيع فى مصر ؟! أود فى البداية أن أبين أن هؤﻻء الذين يروجون لهذا الكﻻم يﻻحظ أنهم حيثما جلسوا وفى أى قناة فضائية ظهروا ﻻ يتحدثون إﻻ عن عدة أمور ﻻ تتغير ، منها تكفير الصوفية ، اتهام الصوفية بأنهم يعبدون اﻷضرحة ، ترويج أن التصوف أشد خطرا على اﻹسﻻم من اليهود ، والشيعة أيضا كفار ، وهم أشد خطرا على اﻹسﻻم عامة ومصر خاصة من إسرائيل! إلى غير هذه العناوين التى ﻻ يغيرونها . فﻻ تجد أحدهم جلس مجلسا أو ظهر على أى قناة فضائية ، فتحدث عن أزمة المسلمين فى مالى أو الصومال أو شمال أفريقيا ، وﻻ يتطرق إلى مآسى اﻷقليات المسلمة فى الهند أو الدول الغير مسلمة ، وﻻ تجدهم يتحدثون عن مواﻻة المسلمين للكافرين ، وﻻ يتحدثون مطلقا عن القوات اﻷمريكية مثﻻ التى تسكن بﻻد المسلمين . وﻻ يتكلمون عن مأساة تقسيم دولة السودان المسلمة إلى شمال وجنوب . كل هذه القضايا ﻻ يطرقونها من قريب أو بعيد ، وهذا يدل على أن هؤﻻء يروجون تلك اﻹشاعات واﻷكاذيب لخدمة طرف آخر . هذا الطرف هو صاحب المصلحة من وراء ذلك . ما هى حقيقة الشيعة فى إيران ، وهل هم مسلمون؟! هناك خطأ كبير يقع فيه الذين يتحدثون عن الشيعة ، فالشيعة ليست فرقة واحدة ، بل فرق متعددة ، يطلق عليهم جميعا مصطلح الشيعة ، أما الشعب اﻹيرانى فيتبع المذهب الجعفرى الذى وضعه اﻹمام جعفر الصادق ، واﻹمام جعفر الصادق هو معلم اﻹمام أبو حنيفة ، واﻹمام مالك ، واﻹمام الشافعى تلميذ اﻹمام مالك ، وبالتالى فإن مذاهب أهل السنة تعود فى النهاية على اختﻻف مسائلها الفرعية إلى مذهب اﻹمام جعفر الصادق بطريق غير مباشر .
    [Show full text]
  • The Egyptian Patent Attorneys
    The Egyptian Patent Attorneys Serial Name Address Tele. / Fax 1 Hoda Ahmed Abdel 2 Loumomba St., Tel. 034946400 - Hadi Alexandria, Egypt 27934222 20 Aisha Al Fax:034945300 Taymoria St., 27934333 P.O Garden City, Box: 11451 Cairo, Egypt 2 Soheir Mikhael Risk 2 Alamir Kadadar Tel: 27954498 St., Cairo, Egypt Fax : 23545470 3 George Azziz Abdel 4 Amar Bin Tel: 22497848 Malek Yasser St., Saint Fax : 22432347 Fatima, Cairo, Egypt 4 Nadia Shehata Haroun & 169 Mohamed Tel: 23917734 Magda Shehata Haroun Farid St., Cairo, Fax : 23920465 Egypt P.O.Box 1540 Cairo 5 Mohamed Tarek Abou 62 Shehab St., Tel: 33040466 Ragab Mohandseen, Fax: 33032430 Cairo, Egypt 6 Nazih Akhnouk Sadek Ramsis Building, Tel: 25742765 Elias Ramsis Sq, floor Fax : 25751775 8, flat 12, Cairo, Egypt 7 Mohamed Mohamed 26 Shrief St., Tel: 23938126 Bakir Cairo, Egypt Fax: 23925770 P.O.Box: 1349 Cairo 8 Mona Mohamed Bakir 13 Mahmoud Tel: 23402592 Azmy St., Fax : 23403828 Zamalek, Cairo, Egypt 9 Hoda Serag Eldin 10 Aisha El Tel. 27953161- Taymoria St., 27959686 Fax: Garden City, 23552314 Cairo, Egypt 10 Lotfy Mahmoud Lotfy 18 Hoda Tel: 23951595 Sharaway St., Cairo, Egypt 11 Samar Ahmed El 51 El Hegaz St. Tel: 33479952- Labbad Mohandseen, 33462951 Fax : Cairo, Egypt 33445729 12 Ali Hussien Abdel Fatah 12 El Marashly Tel. 27353331- Elshalakany St., Zamalek, 23399105 Fax : Cairo, Egypt 23420661 13 Wagdy Nabeeh Azziz 46 Shahin St., El Tel : 33047212 Fax Agouza, Giza, : 33042022 Egypt Mob:012/2233992 14 Hisham Fathy Esmail 5 El Taher from Tel: 26366426 – Mohamed El Tanahy St., 23885939 Mob: Misr Elgdida, 010566451 Cairo- Egypt 15 Taha Hanafy Mahmoud 16 Sherief St., Tel: 23921647 Cairo, Egypt Fax : 23953006 16 Yaser Farouk Mubarak 25 A Elabour Tel.
    [Show full text]
  • East Delta Electricity Production Company Public Disclosure Authorized
    VOL. 3 Arab Republic of Egypt Ministry of Electricity and Energy Egyptian Electricity Holding Company East Delta Electricity Production Company Public Disclosure Authorized El-Ain Al-Sokhna 2x650 MWe GAS/OIL THERMAL POWER PROJECT Public Disclosure Authorized Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ANNEXES Consultation Activities & Other Annexes (Volume- Ill) Public Disclosure Authorized August 2008 ECG File No. 1312 Prepared by: Public Disclosure Authorized Engineering Consultants Group (ECG) Bldg. 2, Block 10, El-Safarat District Nasr City 11765, Cairo, Egypt. Arab Republic of Egypt Ministry of Electricity and Energy Egyptian Electricity Holding Company East Delta Electricity Production Company EL-AIN AL-SOKHNA 2x650 MWe GASIOIL THERMAL POWER PROJECT Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ANNEXES Consultation Activities & Other Annexes (Volume- Ill) August 2008 Prepared by: Engineering Consultants Group (ECG) Bldg. 2, Block 10, El-Safarat District Nasr City 11765, Cairo, Egypt. P.O.Box: 1167. Cairo 1151 1, Egypt. El-Ain Al-Sokhna 2x650 MWe GASlOlL THERMAL POWER PROJECT Environmental and Social lmpact Assessment CONTENTS EXECUTIVE TECHNICAL SUMMARY 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background 1.2 Environmental Impact Assessment of the Project 2. POLICY, LEGAL AND ADMINIS'TRATIVE FRAMEWORK 2.1 Permits Required to Construct and Operate the Power Plant 2.2 Relevant Environmental Policy, Legal and Administrative Issues 2.3 Requirement for an EIA 2.4 Scope of the ESlA 2.5 Regional Development Planning 2.6 International and National Environmental Standards1 Guidelines 3. ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVES 3.1 Current Situation ("No Action" Option) 3.2 Alternative Technologies and Fuels 3.3 Alternative Designs of the Power Plant 3.4 Alternative Sites 4.
    [Show full text]
  • Soldiers and Societies in Revolt
    Soldiers and Societies in Revolt Military Doctrine in the Arab Spring Nicholas J. Lotito Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY 2018 © 2018 Nicholas J. Lotito All rights reserved ABSTRACT Soldiers and Societies in Revolt: Military Doctrine in the Arab Spring Nicholas J. Lotito This dissertation explores civil-military relations in democratizing contexts, specifically how the historical relationship between the military and the broader public shapes re- sponses to political crises such as riots and revolutions. I develop a novel theory, rooted in civil-military relations literature from political science and sociology, for how an army’s historical interactions with the population and with foreign sponsors create doctrine by shaping organizational culture and practices toward the population. Doctrine, in turn, influences the military’s response to a popular uprising. The foundations of military doctrine are historical and include the military’s institutional origins, role in national inde- pendence, and relationship to the ruling party. Subsequently, doctrinal innovation occurs as a result of interacting with the domestic population and foreign military sponsors. The dissertation features qualitative case studies of Tunisia, Egypt, and Syria during the Arab Spring and a quantitative data analysis of major uprisings worldwide since 1950. Both qualitative and quantitative evidence demonstrate that the nature of military doctrine explains soldiers’ behavior during popular uprisings better than alternative arguments based on capacity, patronage, and ethnicity. Contents List of Figures iii List of Tables iv 1 The Puzzle of Military Responses to Uprisings 1 1.1 The Arab Spring ................................
    [Show full text]
  • Country Policy and Information Note Egypt: Opposition to State
    Country Policy and Information Note Egypt: Opposition to state Version 1.0 July 2020 Preface Purpose This note provides country of origin information (COI) and analysis of COI for use by Home Office decision makers handling particular types of protection and human rights claims (as set out in the Introduction section). It is not intended to be an exhaustive survey of a particular subject or theme. It is split into two main sections: (1) analysis and assessment of COI and other evidence; and (2) COI. These are explained in more detail below. Assessment This section analyses the evidence relevant to this note – i.e. the COI section; refugee/human rights laws and policies; and applicable caselaw – by describing this and its inter-relationships, and provides an assessment of, in general, whether one or more of the following applies: • A person is reasonably likely to face a real risk of persecution or serious harm • The general humanitarian situation is so severe as to breach Article 15(b) of European Council Directive 2004/83/EC (the Qualification Directive)/Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights as transposed in paragraphs 339C and 339CA(iii) of the Immigration Rules • The security situation presents a real risk to a civilian’s life or person such that it would breach Article 15(c) of the Qualification Directive as transposed in paragraphs 339C and 339CA(iv) of the Immigration Rules • A person is able to obtain protection from the state (or quasi state bodies) • A person is reasonably able to relocate within a country or territory • A claim is likely to justify granting asylum, humanitarian protection or other form of leave, and • If a claim is refused, it is likely or unlikely to be certifiable as ‘clearly unfounded’ under section 94 of the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002.
    [Show full text]
  • Mapping and Supporting Cultural Industries in Egypt
    Support to Cultural Diversity and Creativity in Egypt program Mapping and Supporting Cultural Industries in Egypt Mapping Directory Cultural Institutions Al Dakahleya Cultural Palace Aga Cultural house Reayat Al Tefl - next to Al esaaf Year Founded: Not Available Address: Center - Aga Libraries, Fine Arts, Literature Activities: club, Lectures and Seminars, Phone: 050/2623727 Women’s Club Target Groups: Children, Youth Email: Not Available Registration Status: Registered Al Baramoon Cultural Palace Al Baramoon - Markaz Al Year Founded: Not Available Address: Mansoora Libraries, Fine Arts, Lectures and Activities: Phone: 050/2180548 Seminars Target Groups: Children, Youth Email: Not Available Registration Status: Registered Al Busarat Cultural house Year Founded: Not Available Address: Al Busrat Villiage Libraries, Fine Arts, Lectures and Activities: Phone: 050/7731107 Seminars Target Groups: Children, Youth Email: Not Available Registration Status: Registered Al Dakahleya Cultural Palace Al Dawrateen Cultural House Year Founded: Not Available Address: Al Dawrateen - al nabroon center Libraries, Fine Arts, Lectures and Activities: Phone: 050/262327 Seminars Target Groups: Children, Youth Email: Not Available Registration Status: Registered Al Gamaleya Cultural house Al Bahr street - City council - Al Year Founded: Not Available Address: gamaleya Libraries, Fine Arts, Women’s Activities: Phone: Not Available Club Target Groups: Children, Youth Email: Not Available Registration Status: Registered Al Makataa Cultural House Tanmeyat al mogtama
    [Show full text]
  • The Rupture in State-Society Relationships and the Prominence of Youth Activism in Egypt Opportunities, Strategies and New Models of Mobilization
    Durham E-Theses The Rupture in State-Society Relationships and the Prominence of Youth Activism in Egypt Opportunities, Strategies and New Models of Mobilization MOHAMED, AHMED,TOHAMI,ABDELHAY How to cite: MOHAMED, AHMED,TOHAMI,ABDELHAY (2013) The Rupture in State-Society Relationships and the Prominence of Youth Activism in Egypt Opportunities, Strategies and New Models of Mobilization , Durham theses, Durham University. Available at Durham E-Theses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/8502/ Use policy The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that: • a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in Durham E-Theses • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. Please consult the full Durham E-Theses policy for further details. Academic Support Oce, Durham University, University Oce, Old Elvet, Durham DH1 3HP e-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 0191 334 6107 http://etheses.dur.ac.uk 2 The Rupture in State-Society Relationships and the Prominence of Youth Activism in Egypt Opportunities, Strategies and New Models of Mobilization Ahmed Tohami Abdelhay Mohamed Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science 2013 School of Government and International Affairs University of Durham 1 Declaration No material in this thesis has been previously submitted for a degree at this or any other University.
    [Show full text]
  • NGO Response to the Government of Egypt's Report to the UN the Committee Against Torture
    EGYPTE The Human Rights Centre for the Assistance of Prisoners (HRCAP) NGO Response to the Government of Egypt's Report to the UN the Committee against Torture. November2002 Presented with the support of the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) Preface: The Egyptian Government submitted its fourth periodical report to the UN Committee Against Torture on 19/11/2001 in fulfillment of its international obligations in accordance with Article 19 of the Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment, ratified by the Egyptian government, published in issue number 11 of the Official Gazette on 11/11/1982. According to the aforementioned Article " The States Parties shall submit to the Committee, through the Secretary-General of the United Nations, reports on the measures they have taken to give effect to their undertakings under this Convention." HRCAP believes it its duty to submit comprehensive comments on the Egyptian government's report with relation to the government's commitments, for the following reasons: 1-The Egyptian government did not disclose the report to the Egyptian public or human right organizations. They - the human rights organizations- were not allowed to participate in the preparation and evaluation of the report. This action on part of the Egyptian government represents a standard policy reflecting a general absence of transparency. The government’s actions are characterized by startling double-standards as it presents itself to the world as a state that respects human rights, while viewing with animosity and suspicion the institutions and individuals working in this field, considering them to be political opponents that challenge its authority.
    [Show full text]
  • A Comparative Study of the Military's Corporateness and Political Values in Egypt, Syria, Turkey, and Pakistan
    Civil-Military Relations And Political Liberalization: A Comparative Study Of The Military's Corporateness And Political Values In Egypt, Syria, Turkey, and Pakistan. by Kirk S. Campbell B.S. May 1981, Virginia Military Institute M.A. August 1990, University of Virginia A Dissertation submitted to The Faculty of Columbian College of Arts and Sciences Of the George Washington University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science January 31, 2009 Dissertation directed by Nathan J. Brown Professor of Political Science and International Affairs The Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of the George Washington University certifies that Kirk Stuart Campbell has passed the Final Examination for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy as of October 21, 2008. This is the final and approved form of the dissertation. Civil-Military Relations And Political Liberalization: A Comparative Study Of The Military's Corporateness And Political Values In Egypt, Syria, Turkey, And Pakistan Kirk S. Campbell Dissertation Research Committee: Nathan J. Brown, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Dissertation Director Deborah D. Avant, Professor of Political Science, University of California, Irvine; formerly Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, The George Washington University, Committee Member Cynthia McClintock, Distinguished Professor of Political Science, Committee Member ii Dedication I dedicate this dissertation to Mona Sehgal, without whose love and support the work could not have been completed. iii Acknowledgements There are many people I would like to thank for helping me complete this dissertation. My committee deserves special thanks for their patient feedback on my many attempts to theorize and operationalize the military and civil-military relations and to relate them to a political outcome.
    [Show full text]
  • Iraq in Crisis: a History from Desert Fox to June 1999
    CSIS__________________________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 Phone: (202) 775-3270 Fax: (202) 466-4740 Internet: CSIS.ORG Iraq in Crisis: A History from Desert Fox to June 1999 Anthony H. Cordesman Co-Director CSIS Middle East Studies Program July 1, 1999 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. The History of Desert Fox and Beyond 7/1/99 Page 2 98-11-1: Iraq rejects the Security Council statement condemning its decision to halt cooperation with UN weapons inspectors, and says it would not back down. -- Iraq allows inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, but other weapons inspections were stopped after Iraq broke off all cooperation, a UN spokeswoman said. -- Iraq and Iran agree to set up s committees to develop trade and economic cooperation between the two countries. -- Russia states that it is concerned by Iraq’s decision to halt cooperation with the UN and urges Iraq to reconsider its move. -- Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz meets a Russian team headed by the ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky, -- Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz says, “We are not gambling and we are not seeking confrontation… If the Security Council is serious about lifting the sanctions, if the Security Council is serious about restructuring UNSCOM and about creating a real international, cooperational, honest body to deal with the question of disarmament and to follow up the monitoring mission, OK. In principle we are not against implementing UN resolutions. We are not against working with the international body for the purpose of disarmament.
    [Show full text]