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A Comparative Case Study of Egyptian Military's Behavior T.C. ANKARA YILDIRIM BEYAZIT UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES WHEN DOES A MILITARY DEFECT? A COMPARATIVE CASE STUDY OF EGYPTIAN MILITARY’S BEHAVIOR DURING POPULAR PROTESTS OF 1977 BREAD INTIFADA, 2008 RIOT, AND 2011 ARAB UPRISINGS. MASTER THESIS AYTEN ÇETER INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS ANKARA, 2020 T.C. ANKARA YILDIRIM BEYAZIT UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES WHEN DOES A MILITARY DEFECT? A COMPARATIVE CASE STUDY OF EGYPTIAN MILITARY’S BEHAVIOR DURING POPULAR PROTESTS OF 1977 BREAD INTIFADA, 2008 RIOT, AND 2011 THE ARAB UPRISINGS. MASTER THESIS AYTEN ÇETER INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS SUPERVISOR: DR. ÖMER ASLAN ANKARA, 2020 ONAY SAYFASI Ayten Çeter tarafından hazırlanan “When Does a Military Defect? A Comparative Case Study of Egyptian Military’s Behavior during Popular Protests of 1977 Bread Intifada, 2008 Riot and 2011 Arab Uprising” adlı tez çalısması aşağıdaki jüri tarafından oy birliği/oy çokluğu ile Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Uluslararası İlişkiler Anabilim Dalı’nda Yüksek Lisans tezi olarak kabul edilmiştir. Ünvan Adı Soyadı Kurumu İmza Ankara Yıldırım Dr. Ömer Aslan Beyazıt Universitesi Ankara Yıldırım Dr. Sevinç Alkan Özcan Beyazıt Universitesi Dr. Buğra Sarı Polis Akademisi Tez Savunma Tarihi: 11.09.2020 Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Uluslararası İlişkiler Anabilim Dalı’nda Yuksek Lisans tezi olması için sartları yerine getirdiğini onaylyorum. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Müdürü Ünvan Ad Soyad i PLAGIARISM I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. 11.09.2020 Ayten ÇETER ii To my father, mother, sisters and brothers. “The family is very important. Look after your families…” iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to thank and express my deep and sincere gratitude my supervisor Ömer Aslan for his priceless support and invaluable guidance which help to completion this study from beginning of the process to end. Without his encouragement, observation and knowledge, I would not have able to finish to this work. It was a great privilege and honor to study under his guidance. I am extremely grateful his patience and empathy through preparation this thesis I also wish to thank my father Abdulhakim Çeter, my mother Habibe Çeter, my sisters and brothers for their support and encouragement. Their love, caring and understanding clearly made it to possible complete this work. Finally, thanks to all my friends who have supported and share their knowledge with me during this process. iv ABSTRACT When Does a Military Defect? A Comparative Case Study of Egyptian Military’s Behavior during Popular Protests of 1977 Bread Intifada, 2008 Riot, and 2011 Arab Uprisings In 2011, the MENA region experienced uprisings and social movements that culminated in either regime change or devastating civil wars some of which have continued to date. Several studies that emerged since then, argue that armed forces in the region played a key role in how riots proceeded and ended. Despite being possibly different from Arab Uprisings, several countries from in the MENA region such as Jordan and Egypt had witnessed significant riots, chief among them being in the form of bread riots, several times before. This thesis considers multiple cases of riots in Egypt under different presidents over the last forty years and aims to analyze and explain the role of the Egyptian armed forces in the development and end of these riots. It discusses how these uprisings broke out and assesses differing respones of the Egyptian military during these multiple cases, namely, the Bread Intifada in 1977, riots in 2008, and The Arab Uprisings in 2011. The question of why the Egyptian military abandoned President Mubarak in 2011 during Arab Uprisings while siding firmly with him in 2008 and Sadat earlier in 1977 forms the puzzle this thesis tries to untangle. Keywords: Arab Uprisings, Bread Riots, Civil-Military relations, Egypt, Military Defection. v ÖZET Bir Ordu Ne Zaman Desteğini Çeker? Popüler İsyanlar Sırasında Mısır Ordusunun Davranışına Dair Karşılaştırmalı Bir Vaka Çalışması: 1977 Ekmek İsyanı, 2008 İsyanı ve 2011 Arab İsyanı. 2011’de, Ortadoğu bölgesi hem rejim değişikliği hem de yıkıcı savaşlarla sonuçlanan ve bir kısmı bugüne kadar devam eden isyanlar ve sosyal harekentlenmeler yaşamıştır. O zamandan beri ortaya çıkan birçok çalışma, bölgedeki silahlı kuvvetlerin ayaklanmaların gidişatında ve sona ermesinde kilit rol oynadığını öne sürüyor. Arap ayaklanmalarından muhtemelen farklı olmasına rağmen, MENA bölgesindeki Ürdün'den Mısır'a kadar birçok ülke önemli isyanlara tanık olmuştur, bunların en önemlisi, daha önce birkaç kez ekmek isyanlarıydı. Bu tez, son kırk yılda Mısır'da farklı başkanlar tarafından yürütülen çok sayıda isyan vakasını ele alıyor ve Mısır silahlı kuvvetlerinin bu ayaklanmaların gelişmesinde ve sona ermesinde rolünü analiz etmeyi ve açıklamayı hedefliyor. Bu ayaklanmaların nasıl patlak verdiğini tartışmakta ve Mısır ordusunun 1977'deki Ekmek İntifadası, 2008'deki ayaklanmalar ve 2011'deki Arap Ayaklanmaları gibi bu çoklu vakalarda farklı tepkilerini değerlendirmektedir. Mısır ordusunun 2008 ve 1977’nin başlarında Sadat ile sıkı sıkıya savaşırken, Başkan Mubarak'ı 2011'de Arap Ayaklanmaları sırasında neden terk ettiği, sorusu bu tezin çözmeye çalıştığı bulmacayı oluşturuyor. Anahtar kelimeler: Arap İsyanları, Ekmek İsyanları, Sivil-Asker ilişkileri, Mısır, Ordunun Desteğini Çekmesi. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ONAY SAYFASI ................................................................................................................... i PLAGIARISM ....................................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................... vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .............................................................................................. ix LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................ x 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Literature Review ........................................................................................................ 3 1.1.1 Civil-Military Relations in MENA ....................................................................... 5 1.1.2 Military Responses to Popular Protests: Defect or Defend? ................................. 8 1.1.2.1 Military Institutionalization ........................................................................... 9 1.1.2.2 External Actors .............................................................................................. 9 1.1.2.3 Economic & Political Privileges.................................................................. 10 1.1.2.4 Level of Mass Mobilization ......................................................................... 12 1.2 Research Methodology .............................................................................................. 15 2. CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS IN EGYPT ............................................................ 20 2.1 Civil-Military Relations under Gamal Abdel Nasser ................................................ 20 2.1.1 Military Activities in Nasser Era ......................................................................... 24 2.2 Civil-Military Relations during Sadat Era ................................................................. 27 2.2.1 Infitah (Open Door Policy) ................................................................................. 28 2.3. Civil-Military Relations during Mubarak Era .......................................................... 30 2.3.1 Military Activities during Mubarak Era .............................................................. 33 3. PROTESTS IN EGYPT: BREAD IS LIFE ................................................................. 36 3.1 Bread riots in MENA ................................................................................................. 36 3.2 Bread riots in Egypt ................................................................................................... 39 3.2.1 Bread Intifada in 1977 ......................................................................................... 41 3.2.2 2008 Riots ........................................................................................................... 46 3.2.3 The Arab Uprisings: Background and Timeline of The Uprising ....................... 49 4. US INFLUENCE ON EGYPTIAN MILITARY DURING THE ARAB UPRISINGS 55 4.1 U.S. Foreign Assistance ............................................................................................. 56 4.2 The US Response to the Arab Uprisings ................................................................... 59 4.3 The Defection of the Egyptian Military during The Arab Uprisings......................... 68 4.4 The Civil-Military Relations: Post-Mubarak Period.................................................. 74 5. CONCLUSION ...........................................................................................................
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