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Russia's Political Drama Heading Into 2018 RUSSIA-DIRECT.ORG VOL. 4 (2016) ISSUE 10 AVAILABLE FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY $4.99 RUSSIA'S POLITICAL DRAMA HEADING INTO 2018 by Yuri Korgunyuk CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Russian Duma elections recently wrapped up in September, and those results have led 03. Elections without surprises to increased speculation about what’s next for Russia’s political future. Next up, are the BY YURI KORGUNYUK 2018 presidential elections. As Russia prepares for these elections, it’s worth taking a closer look at the many of the themes and ideas that are likely to persist between now 09. Interview with Andrei Kole- and 2018. For example, it’s clear that the current party of power – United Russia – is snikov: Hawks vs. doves: Who will looking for a new identity that will resonate with voters. Moreover, the Kremlin is look- dominate in the Kremlin before the ing for the right mix of liberals and conservatives to push forward important domestic 2018 elections? and foreign policy initiatives. As part of the new Russia Direct report, we also interviewed Andrei Kolesnikov of the 15. Interview with Mikhail Zygar: Carnegie Moscow Center, who is among the foremost authorities on Russian domestic Understanding Russian politics, politics. As he points out, many of the recent moves in the current political arena – without the conspiracy theories such as the replacement of key Kremlin insiders and the co-opting of slogans and ideas from the opposition – can be viewed as attempts to maintain top-down control over 21. Further reading Russian society while providing the semblance of transparency, efficiency and order. Finally, Mikhail Zygar, author of “All the Kremlin’s Men,” explains how policymaking at the highest levels reaches of the Russian government actually works. While Western political observers typically assume that much of Russian foreign policy is the calcu- AUTHOR lated strategy of one man – Vladimir Putin – the reality is often much different. There are many competing clans and many competing ideas, meaning that many moves are simply reactive rather than proactive. Ultimately, that may be the greatest mistake that Western analysts make in analyzing Russian politics. They will mistake the constant tweaks, changes and adjustments made by the Kremlin between now and 2018 as the clear signs of a deliberate, me- thodical plan rather than tactical responses to emerging problems. Yuri Korgunyuk Ph.D. in History, Doctor of Political Science, Head of the Political Science Department at the Mos- cow-based Information Science for Democracy (INDEM) Foun- dation. Since 2012, he has been chairman of the Scientific Coun- cil for the Comparative Study of Party and Electoral Systems at the Russian Association of Political Science. Korgunyuk is the author of numerous publications on the Russian political system and do- mestic politics. S ER T REU | 1 | russia-direct.org FROM THE EDITOR Opening a new chapter in the Kremlin’s policy Another man’s mind is a closed book, reads a In this report, Russia Direct gives voice to well-known Russian proverb. Likewise, it can well-known Russian political expert Yuri Kor- be extended to the field of Russian politics. gunyuk from the Moscow-based Information After all, both Russian and foreign experts Science for Democracy (INDEM) Foundation. have always seen the Russian decision- He discusses the Kremlin’s different tactics making process as obscure and full of se- and schemes in the latest political campaigns crecy. Because of the lack of information on as well as the implications of the 2016 par- what is going on behind the Kremlin’s walls, liamentary elections on the country’s political political science has turned into a sort of future. At the same time, in an extended inter- guesswork. Instead of facts, pundits rely on view with Russia Direct, Andrei Kolesnikov from speculations and assumptions. the Carnegie Moscow Center analyzes the links Oddly enough, it is normal for Russian po- between the parliamentary elections and the litical analysis — it would be strange if this upcoming presidential campaign, while giving process worked otherwise. Yet, at any rate, some hints of what political forces – conserva- this complicates the work of those who seek tives or liberal technocrats – will dominate in to understand the logic of Russian politics. the Kremlin in 2018 and beyond. Despite these challenges, Russia Direct has Finally, the report features an interview with provided new analysis of the ins and outs of Mikhail Zygar, the former chief editor at inde- the Kremlin’s politics in an attempt to shed pendent TV station Dozhd, who discusses his light on Russian policymaking. It is crucial to latest book “All the Kremlin’s Men: Inside the Pavel Koshkin, Editor-in-Chief understand the scenarios of Russia’s politi- Court of Vladimir Putin.” cal future, especially given the parliamentary I hope you enjoy this report. Please, do not hes- election that took place in September, and itate to reach me directly at p.koshkin@russia- the upcoming presidential elections, sched- direct.org with your questions. Thank you for uled for 2018. being our loyal reader. Write to us [email protected] for general comments, subscription and distribution questions; Send an email to: [email protected] for your submissions, article proposals, topic suggestions, and content-related comments; [email protected] for sales and advertising. Eugene Abov Chairman, Russia Direct, Deputy Director General, Rossiyskaya Gazeta Publishing House, Publisher, Russia Beyond The Headlines Julia Golikova Director for Development, Russia Direct, Deputy Publisher, Commercial and Foreign Partnership Director, Russia Beyond The Headlines Elena Potapova Deputy Publisher, Circulation, Digital Strategy and Operations, Russia Beyond The Headlines Pavel Koshkin Editor-in-Chief Ksenia Zubacheva Executive Editor Dominic Basulto Executive Editor, U.S. Andrei Zolotov Executive Editor, Europe Alexey Khlebnikov Senior Editor Maria Stambler Social Media Director Olga Fastova Associate Publisher, Sales, Marketing, Events Ekaterina Belan Digital Marketing Manager Anna Sergeeva Representative, New York Olga Guitchounts Representative, Washington, D.C. Andrey Shimarskiy Art Director Nikolay Shiyanov Senior Designer Alexander Kislov Designer Milla Domogatskaya Production Designer Andrey Zaitsev Head of Photo Department Nikolay Korolev Photo Editor © Russia Direct 2016 All rights reserved. ISSN 2412-8171. A product of No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, or by any information storage and retrieval system. The views expressed are those of certain participants in the discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of Russia Direct. | 2 | russia-direct.org Elections without surprises The success of the United Russia ruling party in September 2016 parliamentary elections is unquestionable. But does it mean that the party of power is actually growing in popularity? VLADIMIR SMIRNOV/TASS VLADIMIR SMIRNOV / TAss Yuri Korgunyuk he main surprise of the Sept. 18 elections to the Russian State Duma, the lower chamber of the Russian parliament, was an al- Tmost total absence of any surprises. The only surprise, in fact, was how effective the Kremlin’s preventive measures had been in the run-up to the elections. These measures can be divided into three main groups: liberal measures, repressive measures and manipulative measures. The liberal measures primarily included the “party reform” of 2012, which sharply lowered the entry barriers for the creation of new politi- cal parties and their participation in elections. In 2011, new parties were required to have as many as 40,000 members; with the reform, only 500 members were necessary to register a new political party. | 3 | russia-direct.org UNITED RUSSIA BENEFITED FROM Another measure that falls into this category was the co-opting of the political agenda of the left con- THE DOZENS OF NEW POLITICAL servative (“patriotic”) opposition by the leaders of the ruling party. It started in 2012 with the adoption PARTIES THAT LARGELY PLAYED of the law on “foreign agent” NGOs and “the Dima THE ROLE of “spoilERS,” dRAWING Yakovlev law,” a ban on the adoption of Russian or- phans by Americans. The culmination of this was the AWAY VOTES FROM THE MAIN propagandist coverage by the state mass media of PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION the operation in Eastern Ukraine and the incorpora- tion of Crimea. TACTICS USED BY THE KREMLIN TO PUBLIC In addition, in 2012-2013 it was not necessary to MAINTAIN CONTROL SUPPORT collect signatures for a party to take part in regional All these measures proved their effectiveness in the and local elections. However, this rule was modified regional elections of 2012–2015, and it’s easy to see in 2014 — only those parties that were already rep- how they worked in 2016. The appointment of a single % resented in their respective regional legislature were voting day to take place in the second week of Sep- 56 admitted to the election. Yet, even after that, the tember resulted in a lower voter turnout: The elec- conditions for the admission of parties to elections toral campaign fell during the summer period, when were more liberal than before 2012. voters’ interest in politics is at a low. In September Repressive measures included increasing the pen- many city residents are busy with their dachas, which of Russians trust alties for conducting unauthorized street rallies or are a higher priority for them than attending a poll- Putin (WCIOM, Oct. violations during authorized street events; adopting ing station. At the same time, the ability of regional 2016). laws on “foreign agent” nonprofit organizations and and local administrations to mobilize the controlled introducing a roster of “undesirable” international electorate (i.e. public sector employees, rural popula- NGOs in Russia; and blocking any Internet resources tion, etc.) remained the same, as lowering the voter % that, according to the Federal Service for Supervi- turnout mainly affected the “uncontrolled” voters.
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