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BOFIT BOFIT Weekly Yearbook 2005 Bank of Finland, BOFIT Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT Weekly Editor-in-Chief Timo Harell Bank of Finland BOFIT – Institute for Economies in Transition PO Box 160 FIN-00101 Helsinki Phone: +358 10 831 2268 Fax: +358 10 831 2294 Email: [email protected] Website: www.bof.fi/bofit The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank of Finland. BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 2005 7.1.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 1/2005 Putin consolidated political power in 2004. Slow progress in structural reform of Russian economy in 2004. New legislation entering into force at the start of 2005. Russia to build pipeline to Sea of Japan. 14.1.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 2/2005 Russian inflation rate exceeds 2004 forecast. Current account surplus and outflow of private capital higher than expected in first three quarters of 2004. Government sets meat import quotas for 2005. Operating environment for small firms improves slightly. 21.1.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 3/2005 Rouble exchange rate drops in 4Q04. Stabilisation fund reaches 3 % of GDP at end-2004. Russia’s reform of social benefits in trouble. 28.1.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 4/2005 Russian economic growth expected to slow this year. Industrial output growth declined towards the end of 2004. Audit Chamber’s assessment of 1993–2003 privatisation outcomes awaits Duma discussion. 4.2.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 5/2005 Unexpectedly high GDP growth figure for 2004. Russia pays off the last of its IMF debts. Third major agency upgrades Russia’s creditworthiness. Public debate on Russian economic policies heats up. 11.2.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 6/2005 Russian inflation picks up. Russian central bank makes shift in foreign exchange policy official. Yuganskneftegaz deal raises questions. State prosecutor says Russian corruption has reached troubling proportions. Strong demand for new cars in Russia. Fradkov government survives Duma no-confidence vote. 18.2.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 7/2005 Russian foreign trade soars in 2004. Road freight transit via Finland to Russia increased last year. Natural resources ministry plans to exclude foreigners from auctions of strategic mineral deposits. Land decisions postponed. 1 25.2.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 8/2005 Russian industrial output grew faster than expected in 2004. CBR relaxes currency controls. Government considers problems in tax administration. IMF mission asks Russia to ease policies to restrain rouble’s appreciation. Russia’s WTO membership talks could be completed during this year. 4.3.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 9/2005 Loose fiscal policy threatens Russian budget balance. Russian oil production rose in 2004. Widening income disparity between rich and poor. 11.3.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 10/2005 Russian inflation remained high in February. Growth in core production slowed in January. Rapid increase in foreign investment continues. New housing code enters into force. 18.3.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 11/2005 Russia rapidly paying down public foreign debt. String of federal budget surpluses unbroken in 2004. Russia has over two dozen billionaires in 2005. Putin fires an elected governor. 24.3.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 12/2005 Growth of construction and transport slows in January-February. More euro emphasis in rouble currency basket. Government approves new draft of act on mineral and hydrocarbon use. Duma to consider new forest code. Russian government plans new special economic zones. 1.4.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 13/2005 Two-thirds of Russian banks now covered by deposit insurance. Construction growth slows. Support for Putin drops, cabinet’s popularity rises. Finland: Russia now third main trading partner, China seventh. 8.4.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 14/2005 Russia’s current account surplus rises to 10 % of GDP in 2004. Russian inflation exceeding government target. Rouble strengthens in real terms. Foreign borrowing by companies and banks continues to rise. 15.4.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 15/2005 Government accepts medium-range economic forecast. Russian investment climate hurt again. Putin signs Public Chamber bill. Euromoney and Institutional Investor publish country risk rankings. 2 22.4.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 16/2005 Slowdown in Russian industrial output growth. Distinctly lower growth in oil output. Russian IPOs enliven capital markets. Gazprom and Germany’s BASF sign deal on construction of Baltic Sea gas pipeline. New regional unions in the works. 29.4.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 17/2005 Putin’s state-of-the-nation speech stresses importance of strengthening state. Growth in real incomes slows. Progress in Russia’s WTO talks. Forests bill receives severe criticism. 6.5.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 18/2005 Industrial producer prices continue to rise. Growth in retail sales remains strong. Russia has sixth largest foreign currency reserves. Administrative reform stumbles along; number of bureaucrats actually increased last year. 13.5.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 19/2005 Russian inflation remained high in April. EU and Russia agree on broad based cooperation. Russia mobile phone connections approach the 100-million mark. Government approves transportation strategy extending through 2020. 20.5.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 20/2005 Russia agrees on early retirement of part of Paris Club debt. Russia’s trade surplus swells. CBR increases euro component in currency basket. Russia and Estonia sign border treaty. CIS countries enjoy strong economic growth, but huge disparities in living standards persist. 27.5.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 21/2005 FDI inflows to Russia soar 30 % in the first quarter. Deposit insurance scheme gradually put in place. New banking strategy approved. Gazprom and Rosneft call off merger plans. Duma to be elected exclusively from party lists. Duma ratifies China border agreement. Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan oil pipeline comes on stream. 3.6.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 22/2005 Growth slows in Russia’s core production sectors. Higher transit freight volumes, lower value cargoes. Putin delivers annual budget speech to parliament. Khodorkovsky gets nine-year sentence. 3 10.6.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 23/2005 Inflation subsides a bit in May. Rouble’s real appreciation continues. No big changes in stocks. Putin comes down hard on UES management for blackouts and progress in company structuring. Finland now Russia’s eighth largest trading partner. 17.6.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 24/2005 Russian GDP growth slowed in the first quarter. Share of long-term deposits up. Law on credit history enters into force. Listing boom continues. Russia tightens economic cooperation with China. 23.6.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 25/2005 Growth in Russian industrial output slowed significantly in May. Growth in investment continues to slow. Duma approves supplemental budget. CBR releases data on composition of foreign currency reserves. 1.7.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 26/2005 Growth slows in Russia’s core production sectors. IMF mission expresses concern about Russia’s loosening fiscal discipline. Reform of Russia’s justice system has proceeded more slowly than in other transition countries. A brief summary of spring legislation. No surprises at Gazprom shareholders’ meeting. Russia balks at ratification of border treaty with Estonia. 8.7.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 27/2005 June inflation slowed slightly. Russia’s current account surplus reached 14 % of GDP in the first quarter. Basic Element gets green light on purchase of Silovye Mashiny. Russia still hopes to get WTO membership in Decem-ber. Finnish firms confronting the most trade barriers in Russia. 15.7.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 28/2005 Russia uses a third of stabilisation fund to pay down Paris Club debt. Russia prepares for its G8 presidency. Gazprom takes aim at Sibneft. Russian Duma approves legislation on special eco-nomic zones and election act. Russian defence spending around 3 % of GDP in re-cent years. 4 22.7.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 29/2005 Industrial output growth accelerated in June. Economy ministry publishes 2006 privatisation plan. Russian markets attract giant carmakers. Concentration of Finnish exports to Russia by enterprises closely resembles the overall structure of Finnish exports. 29.7.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 30/2005 Growth in Russia’s core production sectors picked up in June. Stabilisation fund assets to be invested in securities of G8 countries. CBR pulls license of bank admitted to deposit insur-ance scheme. Standard & Poor’s holds Russia’s credit rating steady. Surging corruption plagues Russian business. 5.8.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 31/2005 Euro’s weighting in currency basket increased. Average Russian wage €250 a month. Summer boom in Russian financial markets. Russia’s tiny, but growing, insurance sector. Russian government approves space program guidelines for 2006–2015. Putin visits Finland. 12.8.2005 BOFIT Weekly – Russia headlines 32/2005 Russian inflation slowed further in July. Fitch raises Russia’s credit rating. Rise in producer prices decelerated slightly. Growth in oil output slows, export earnings surge. Russia
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