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Russia Intelligence N∞18 P RIA63 11/10/07 10:59 Page 1 N°63 - October 11 2007 Published every two weeks / International Edition CONTENTS KREMLIN c P. 1-4 Politics & Government Hunting scenes in Moscow KREMLIN It is Moscow as it’s never been seen before : a senior officer of a power centre, Viktor Cherkesov, 56, c Hunting scenes the boss of the anti-narcotics service, a co-disciple of Vladimir Putin at the university of Leningrad in in Moscow FOCUS 1973, who entered the KGB in 1975, the point man in the hunt for dissidents in the northern capital un- c Vladimir Putin, the til 1984, Putin’s deputy at the direction of the FSB in 1998 and anxious enough about his security to pub- improbable "Chancellor of licly denounce in an open letter in the daily Kommersant «the fratricidal struggle within the secret serv- Russia" ices» that could «weaken the government and undermine the stability of the state»...Just as we have FOCUS never ceased to write, the process of Vladimir Putin’s succession is leading to chain reactions in his in- c Who will take Gazprom? ner circle which is developing into mass formation battles between two clans. Igor Sechin (presidential ALERTS administration), Nicolay Patrushev (FSB), Rashid Nurgaliev (Interior) have decided to clash with the c Gazprom in line for the opposite clan, whose principal leaders are Dimitri Medvedev, Alisher Usmanov, Alexey Kudrin, Vladimir Ankara distribution network Kozhin, Viktor Cherkesov, Viktor Zolotov, Yevgeny Murov (read details page 4). It’s likely that the ar- c Suez is preparing rest of Vladimir Barsukov, alias Kumarin, reputed head of the Tambov gang in Saint Petersburg (Rus- its entry on the Russian sia Intelligence n 61 of September 3 and n 62 September 27) was the first shot of the war whose most electricity market ∞ ∞ recent episode was the arrest by the Sechin clan of Cherkesov’s closest associate, the latter obviously be- ALERTS ing in the grasp of Sechin and Patrushev. We indicated in our last number that Alisher Usmanov would c Settling scores in the leadership of the Russian probably be the subject of an offensive of the purest kind. This has been confirmed since the boss of Kom- secret services mersant, of GazpromInvestHolding and of MettaloInvest is the target of attack from the South African group De Beers concerning the diamond mine at Verkhotina in the region of Arhangelsk from which De Beers feels it was fraudulously expelled by Usmanov at the end of the 1990s (Russia Intelligence n∞18 P. 5-6 Business & Networks of September 23 2005). Mines c The "peace of the brave" Naturally the Sechin-Cherkesov clash is nothing like our own police conflicts. As Cherkesov said him- over the coal in Yakutia self in his article «the stakes are too important for a winner in this war». What stakes is he referring FOCUS to? It concerns Sechin creating the conditions so that Vladimir Putin has no other option than to stay in c RZhD : Vladimir Yakunin unveils his industrial strategy power since he is the only guarantor of «stability» between the clans who are all composed of personal- ities considered as members of his inner circle and certainly the only guarantor of the physical security ALERTS c AFK Systema en Inde of Sechin and his allies. The risks of destabilisation of the state is therefore not pure speculation. The c Alexey Fyodorov quits fact that Vladimir Putin decided to «extract» Sergey Lebedev from the SVR (the external intelligence the general direction of MiG service) is probably the sign that he wanted to avoid a «spillover» of the internal struggles into territo- ries outside Russia by placing a man (former Prime minister Mikhail Fradkov) whom he thinks will scrupulously inform him of what goes on in the «service». We can understand better, in these conditions, P. 7-8 Regions & CIS the strange announcement made by Vladimir Putin during the congress of the United Russia October 1, FOCUS indicating he was assuming the leadership of the list of the presidential party (of which he is not a mem- c Sergey Lebedev as the ber) for the legislative elections and that he could accept being named as Prime minister if he could be saviour of the CIS? assured of cooperating with an acceptable president. This possibility, which contradicts no provision in ALERT the constitution, is nevertheless not as simple to implement as it seems (page 2). In any case, this «arrange- c Belarus : a good show by ment» could not last for four years unless a serious constitutional reform made the post of Prime minis- Telecom Austria ter a sort of equivalent to the Chancellor in Germany. SUBSCRIPTION It is, however, less and less in doubt that the succession process was announced in the worst of con- Print Edition ditions since it was not prepared with sufficient care and anticipation. The authority of the president (23 issues, airmailed overseas) over his own friends has suffered as seen by the events we report in this number. Taking into account the €770 TTC nature of the regime he put in place or that he allowed to be established, Vladimir Putin could not have The Web Pack failed to know that all uncertainty on the identity of his successor would produce movement that would (Print Edition be difficult to control, since the stakes for the competing clans with each other can be counted in the tens + PDF + archives acess) of billions of dollars. He probably underestimated the level of violence that each and all were ready to use € 880 TTC to remain masters of the game. By exacerbating the rivalry between Sergey Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev The Premium and in finally chosing Viktor Zubkov, he worried rather than reassured his allies. If the objective was for Subscription Vladimir Putin to remain in the Kremlin, then it would have been better to modify the constitution while (Print Edition + PDF + access there was still time and the conflict between Sechin and the others was still not irreparable. Putin can to all the website contents) only remain in power one way or another, at least under current conditions, but it is no longer certain € 1200 TTC that this is the unanimous choice even in the midst of his circle after the events of the last few days. d www.russia-intelligence.fr RIA63 11/10/07 10:59 Page 2 RUSSIA INTELLIGENCE Politics & Government GOVERNMENT c Vladimir Putin, the improbable "Chancellor of Russia" Ever since the thundering announcement by Vladimir Putin also contravene the declarations by Putin to the effect that you during the United Russia congress October 1, the plan of succes- don’t change the constitution «for only one man». Otherwise, it sion — or rather of non-succession — to the head of executive would have been simpler to stage the disappearnce at the right power is apparently is already all drawn : the current president time of the article forbidding the president from serving two con- will lead the list of United Russia in the legislative elections De- secutive terms. cember 2 (the constitution does not require him to abandon his 2/ Vladimir Putin becomes Prime minister and initiates a mod- post as head of state ahead of this) before taking over as head ification of the law «On the government». The objective would of the government, without a doubt before the end of the year. be to transfer to the Prime minister the control over the power The preliminary calendar of the presidential elections will not ministers. This procedure would obviously be lighter. It never- be upset since the maximum interval following the resignation theless remains that in the absence of constitutional reform on of the head of state will correspond with the date already fore- its own, the nomination — and therefore the dismissal — of the seen, that is March 2008. The principal condition voiced by Putin head of government remains the under the authority of the pres- for such a co-habitation — «that the future president be some- ident. In other terms, even if the confidence that Putin has for one good [poryadochny chelovek]» — will be achieved in his Zubov is total, the position of the Prime minister would be made eyes inasmuch as the probable future head of state will be Vik- vulnerable under this sword of Damocles. tor Zubkov. 3/ The third choice offered to Vladimir Putin is an informal This scenario nevertheless presents a number of uncertain- sharing of power with the next president, without touching the ties, and to consider at this stage the «self-transmission» of power constitution or the laws in effect. This is evidently even riskier as settled would be extremely unwise. In fact, at least four op- than the precedent. tions are available to the Kremlin chief. Finally the only advantage evident of the post of Prime min- 1/ Vladimir Putin decides to radically modify the constitution ister is that the latter substitutes for the president in case of in- and to transform Russia into a parliamentary republic where capacity or resignation of the latter. Tested succesfully by Vladimir the president would have essentially honorofic powers. Accord- Putin December 31 1999, this scenario would be the most logi- ing to the articles 108 and 136 of the the current constitution, cal and the least risky for the current president. In any case, as this would require the support of 2/3 of the deputies and 3/4 of long as he benefits from the support of such a large majority of the senators, as well as 2/3 of the regional assemblies. All this is the population and he succeeds in mastering the different clans technically possible, but this plan presents the inconvenience surrounding him.
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