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Synthesis Report on Ten ASEAN Countries Disaster Risks Assessment

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Synthesis Report on Ten ASEAN Countries Disaster Risks Assessment Synthesis Report on Ten ASEAN Countries Disaster Risks Assessment ASEAN Disaster Risk Management Initiative December 2010 Preface The countries of the Association of Southeast (Vietnam) droughts, September 2009 cyclone Asian Nations (ASEAN), which comprises Brunei, Ketsana (known as Ondoy in the Philippines), Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, catastrophic flood of October 2008, and January Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, is 2007 flood (Vietnam), September 1997 forest-fire geographically located in one of the most disaster (Indonesia) and many others. Climate change is prone regions of the world. The ASEAN region expected to exacerbate disasters associated with sits between several tectonic plates causing hydro-meteorological hazards. earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis. The region is also located in between two great Often these disasters transcend national borders oceans namely the Pacific and the Indian oceans and overwhelm the capacities of individual causing seasonal typhoons and in some areas, countries to manage them. Most countries in tsunamis. The countries of the region have a the region have limited financial resources and history of devastating disasters that have caused physical resilience. Furthermore, the level of economic and human losses across the region. preparedness and prevention varies from country Almost all types of natural hazards are present, to country and regional cooperation does not including typhoons (strong tropical cyclones), exist to the extent necessary. Because of this high floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, vulnerability and the relatively small size of most landslides, forest-fires, and epidemics that of the ASEAN countries, it will be more efficient threaten life and property, and droughts that leave and economically prudent for the countries to serious lingering effects. cooperate in the areas of civil protection, and disaster preparedness and prevention. Typhoons are the most prevalent hazard in the region, causing destruction to human life, With the aim of reducing ASEAN’s vulnerability buildings, agriculture and infrastructure alike, to the risk of disasters, the World Bank, United while causing flooding and landslides/mudslides. Nations International Strategy for Disaster The region provides compelling evidence of the Reduction (UNISDR), through the Global Facility destructive power of such disasters. For example, for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR), and in the recent tropical cyclone Nargis of May 2008 collaboration with other international partners in Myanmar killed over 133 thousand people, have started support for implementing the affected over 2.4 million people and caused an ASEAN Agreement for Disaster Management estimated economic loss of over $ 4 billion. Over Emergency Response (AADMER) to promote 600 thousand hectares of agriculture land was sustainable development in ASEAN region. The flooded, killing about 50 per cent of the draught AADMER is a regional legally binding agreement animals. In the same year, on June 21, 2008, that binds ASEAN Member States together to Typhoon Fenghsen in the Philippines killed 573 promote regional cooperation and collaboration and affected at least 4 million people in just four in reducing disaster losses and intensifying joint hours. In October 2009, cyclone Pepang (Parma) emergency response to disasters in the ASEAN in the Philippines killed 539 people, affected 4.5 region. AADMER is also ASEAN’s affirmation of its million and caused an estimated economic loss of commitment to the Hyogo Framework for Action $592 million. 2005-2015 (HFA). The HFA, endorsed by 168 countries, is coordinated by UNISDR to provide Some of the major disasters of recent times in the nations and communities the roadmap to disaster- region are: the December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean proof the significant development gains. tsunami, September 16, 1990 Luzon earthquake (Philippines), May 26, 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake To support ASEAN, the World Bank, UNISDR (Indonesia), June 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount and ASEAN secretariat signed a tripartite Pinatubo (Philippines), 2005 (Thailand), and 1997 Memorandum of Cooperation (MoC) on disaster ii Synthesis Report risk reduction (DRR) in 2009. The MoC lays a framework for technical support from the World Bank and UNISDR to help the ASEAN secretariat formulate and implement strategies and action plans for disaster risk reduction and management. The objectives of this program include (i) building ASEAN’s capacity in the areas of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation; (ii) mobilizing resources for the implementation of DRR initiatives in ASEAN; and (iii) helping ASEAN policy-makers gain knowledge of effective and practical ways to reduce disaster risks. As part of the work of the tripartite MoC, the objective of this assignment is to develop a synthesis report on ASEAN member states’ disaster risks by carrying out a desk review of already available reports, studies, maps, analyses and assessments regarding disaster risks at the country and regional levels. This ‘desk review’ also analyses trans-boundary disaster risks and their effects; projected losses in the absence of mitigation measures (Average Annual Loss, AAL and economic losses for different probabilities of exceedance), climate change assessment, population growth, economic development, and urban expansion. Disaster Risk assessments for all the countries and the region have been prepared and the review concludes with recommendations on the way forward for ASEAN disaster risk reduction. Acknowledgments UNISDR and the World Bank would like to thank Mr. Sushil Gupta (RMSI), the main author of this review. Special thanks for the guidance and expertise provided are also extended to: UNISDR and The World Team This study has been possible thanks to the contributions of several national and regional interlocutors. National interlocutors: Brunei: Mr. Yaha bin Haji Abdul Rahman, Director, NDMC Cambodia: Mr. Peou Samy, Secretary General, NCDM Indonesia: Mr. Sugeng Tri Utomo, Deputy, BNPB Laos: Mr. Vilayphong Sisomvang, Head, NDMO Malaysia: Hon. Datuk Mohamed Thajudeen Abdul Wahab, Secretary, NSC Myanmar: Mr. Soe Aung, Director General, RRD Philippines: Mr. Ronald Ignacio Flores, Director/ Civil Defense Executive Officer, NDCC Singapore: Ms. Lim Lay Eng, Senior Meteorological Officer, NEA Thailand: Mr. Wiboon Sanguanpong, Director General, DDPM Vietnam: Mr. Nguyen Xuan Dieu, Chief, CCFSC Table of Contents Preface i Acknowledgments iii Table of Contents iv Executive Summary 1 1.1 Key findings 2 1.2 Way forward 4 1.3 Limitations of the Study 4 1.4 Report structure 5 Risk Assessment: An Overview 7 The Study Area 9 Methodology 11 4.1 Data review 11 4.2 Hazard risk and vulnerability estimates 15 4.3 Risk assessment 15 4.4 Presentation of results 16 Country Risk Profiles 17 5.1 Brunei Darussalam 18 5.2 Cambodia 21 5.3 Indonesia 25 5.4 Lao PDR 29 5.5 Malaysia 33 5.6 Myanmar 37 5.7 Philippines 41 5.8 Singapore 45 5.9 Thailand 48 5.10 Vietnam 52 ASEAN Regional Profile 57 6.1 Overview 57 6.2 Regional setting 58 6.3 Socio-economic setting 59 6.4 Disasters overview 59 6.6 Disaster risk profile 78 6.7 Social and economic vulnerability analysis 79 v Trans-boundary Disaster Risks and their Effects 83 7.1 Indian Ocean Tsunami, 2004 83 7.2 2004-05 Drought in Southeast Asia 85 7.3 Mekong Flooding and Transboundary Water Dispute 85 7.4 Typhoon Ketsana, September 2009 88 7.5 1997-98 Southeast Asian Haze 89 Population Growth and Economic Highlights 91 8.1 Brunei 91 8.2 Cambodia 92 8.3 Indonesia 92 8.4 Laos 93 8.5 Malaysia 94 8.6 Myanmar 94 8.7 Philippines 96 8.8 Singapore 96 8.9 Thailand 97 8.10 Vietnam 98 Climate Change Assessment 101 9.1 Climate change trends from climate models 101 9.2 Observed and Projected climate change in ASEAN 107 9.3 Climate change impacts on ASEAN 115 Hazard Risk Management Framework – Status of ASEAN Countries 117 Priority Areas for Detailed Risk Assessments 119 11.1 Selection of indicators to define priority areas 119 11.2 Population at risk 119 Conclusions and Recommendations 129 12.1 Conclusions 129 12.2 Recommendations 131 References 135 Relevant Internet Sites 142 List of Figures vii List of Tables Abbreviations, Acronyms and Symbols AADMER ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency AAL Average Annual Loss ACDM ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management ADB Asian Development Bank ADPC Asian Disaster Preparedness Center ADRC Asian Disaster Reduction Center ARPDM ASEAN Regional Programme on Disaster Management ASC Asian Seismological Commission ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BAU Business-As-Usual CRED Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters DLNA Damage, Loss and Needs Assessment DMP Disaster Management Plan DRI Disaster Risk Index DRM Disaster Risk Management DRR Disaster Risk Reduction EM-DAT Emergency Events Database, developed by the Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance and the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation ERAT ASEAN Emergency Rapid Assessment Team ESCAP Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific EU European Union EV Economic Vulnerability GCM Global Circulation Model GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GHG Greenhouse Gases GIS Geographic Information System GLOF Glacial Lake Outburst GNI Gross National Income GNP Gross National Product GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Program HDA Human Development Index HFA Hyogo
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