TECHNOLOGICAL RISK MANAGEMENT & THE 4TH INDUSTRIAL

Pol HOORELBEKE Vice President HSE Audits, Major Accident Investigations and REX Delft LP2019 PURPOSE OF THE PRESENTATION

Our industry is in the middle of the 4th industrial revolution.

How will the 4th industrial revolution impact the way we manage process safety?

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 2 The influence of the First and Second Industrial Revolution on th emanagement of safety in industry

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 3 4 FIRST AND SECOND INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

● The First Industrial Revolution took place from the 18th to 19th centuries in Europe and America. It was a period when mostly agrarian, rural societies became industrial and urban. The iron and textile industries, along with the development of the steam engine, played central roles in the Industrial

● The Second Industrial Revolution took place between 1870 and 1914, just before . It was a period of growth for pre-existing industries and expansion of new ones, such as steel, oil and electricity, and used electric power to create mass production. Major technological advances during this period included the telephone, light bulb, phonograph and the internal combustion machine

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 « UPSTAIR, DOWNSTAIRS » LIFE IN THE 19TH CENTURY

Child work at machine

Young coal miners

Child « hurriers »

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 6 (1889 – 1916) – Socialist movement

1. Henri Van Kol (1852-1925) – Dutch 2. Manuel Ugarte (1875-1951). Argentin 3. Antonin Nemec (1858-1925). Czech 4. 4 Edouard Vaillant (1840-1915). French 5. Frantisek Soukop (1871-1940). Czech 6. (1871-1919). Polish 7. Victor Adler (1852-1918). Austrian. 8. Karl Kautsky (1854-1938). Germand 9. Maksymilian Walecki (1877-1937). Polish 10.Emile Vandervelde (1866-1938). Belgian. 11.Jean Longuet (1876-1938). French. 12.Enrico Ferri (1852-1929). Italian 13.Amilcare Cipriani (1843-1918). Italian 14.Pieter Jelles Troelstra (1860-1930). Ducth 15.Henry Hyndman (1842-1921). English 16.Ernest Belfort Bax (1854-1921). English 17.Olav Kringen (1867-1951). Norwegian 18.Sen Katayama (1859-1933). Japanees 19.Georgii Plekhanoc (1856-1918). Russian 20.Alexandre Desrousseaux (1861-1955). French 21.Peter Knudsen (1848-1910). Danish 22.Morris Hillquit (1869-1933). American. 23.Achille Cambier. Argentin 24.Dadabhai Naoroji (1825-1917). Indian 25.Edward Anseele (1856-1938). Belgian.

Leaders of the 2nd International at Amsterdam Congress 1904

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 7 IMPACT OF 1ST AND 2ND IR ON SAFETY

● Awareness of Occupational Health and Safety at work (quest for justice):

- 1864: The International Workingmen's Association (IWA, 1864–1876) aimed at uniting a variety of different socialist, communist and trade organizations that were based on the working class. Five to Eight million members

- 1889: Second International (1889 – 1916) – Socialist movement

- 1919: Creation of ILO - the International Labor Office (article 392 of the Treaty of Versailles)

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 20th century: more understanding of causes of work related accidents

The Pitsburgh Survey (1908) draws attention on safety provisions in the US Steel Corporation: technical measures, machine guarding, Committees of safety, inspection activities, checklists, the « Human Element »

Herbert William Heinrich (1886 - 1962 ): • 75,000 accidents • Heinrich‘s Law (1-29-300) Frank Bird (1921 - 2007 ): • 88:10:2 ratio (unsafe acts-unsafe 1 753 498 accidents, 297 companies conditions-) Rule 1:10:30:600 Loss Causation Model

James Reason (1938 - ): • Aviation industry • Importance of Human Error and Organizational accidents

Organizational Behavior Holnagel (2004) Management • Functional Resonance Accident • Psychological approaches Model (FRAM) • Sociological approaches

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 IMPACT OF 1IR & 2IR ON SAFETY: STANDARDIZATION

1917 • DIN (Deutsches Institut für Normung) in Germany 1918 • British Engineering Standards Committee (founded in 1901) is transformed in the British Engineering Standards Association (BESA)

• American National Standards Institute. The first standard (American Standard Safety Code, ASSC) was approved in 1921 for protection of eyes and head of workers in industry

1926 • International Standards Association (ISA) (transformed in 1947 in ISO)

• Association française de normalisation (AFNOR) in …..

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 MAJOR ACCIDENTS IN THE ’60 - ’80 PERIOD

1965 1973 Rotterdam (Nl) St Amand les Eaux (Fr) Explosion during cleaning BLEVE road tanker sea going vessel 9 killed, 45 injured 16 killed 1966 1974 Feyzin (Fr) Flixborough (UK) BLEVE refinery VCE chemical site 18 killed, 81 injured 28 killed , 104 injuries

1967 1975 Martelange (Be) Beek (Nl) BLEVE truck 22 killed, 47 injured VCE steamcracker 14 killed, 107 injured 1968 Pernis (Nl) 1976 VCE refinery Seveso (It) 2 killed, 85 injured Release of TCDD 1968 115,000 people exposed Amsterdam (Nl) Explosion oiltanker 1977 in refinery Brindishi (It) 13 killed, 2 injured VCE steamcracker 1969 3 killed, 107 injured Bingen (Ge) 500 l endosulfan leak 600 km water pollution 1971 1978 20 million fish killed Amsterdam (Nl) San Carlos (Sp) Butadiene explosion BLEVE road tanker 11 9 killed, 22 injured Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 216 killed, 200 injured ● The Third Industrial Revolution, or the Digital Revolution, refers to the advancement of technology from analog electronic and mechanical devices to the digital technology available today.

● 3IR started during the 1980s and is ongoing.

● Advancements during the Third Industrial Revolution include: - the personal computer;

- internet and

- information and communication technology (ICT).

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 IMPACT OF 3IR ON SAFETY

● Development of advanced calculations codes • Computational Fluid Dynamics & Finite Element models • Dynamic dispersion modelling • Explosion modelling ● Development of Risk based approaches • Quantitative Risk Assessments • Fault Tree Analysis • Risk Based Inspection • … ● Computer aided methods • HAZOP • Accident Databases • ….. CURRENT REQUIRED FIELD OF KNOWLEDGE FOR THE SENIOR PROCESS ENGINEER: A COMPLEX SUBJECT

Specific methods, techniques and knowledge

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 Key issues related to Technological Risk Management Asset integrity is the capability to operate an asset so that it safeguards life and environment whilst meeting production objectives during the operational phase of its lifecycle

o Compliance with o Safe Operation approved standards o Procedures Operating o Meeting project Design requirements o People competency Integrity Integrity o Incorporating recommendations from TRA in the design Integrity Leadership

o Compliance with project specs o Plant Inspection Construction Technical o Materials o Maintenance Integrity Integrity QA/QC

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 ANTWERP REFINING AND PETROCHEMICAL COMPLEX

16 17 Deep Offshore 18 YAMAL LNG

. Yamal LNG is Russian OPCO: 51% Novatek, 20% Total and Chinese 20% CNPC and 9% Silk Road Found . TOTAL owns19% of Novatek . 600 km north the artic circle . 2 montsh without sun . 2 months without night

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 19 20 FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION (4IR)

● The Fourth Industrial Revolution builds on the Digital Revolution, representing new ways in which technology becomes embedded within societies and even the human body.

● The Fourth Industrial Revolution is marked by emerging technology breakthroughs in a number of fields, including robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, quantum computing, biotechnology, the IoT, 3D printing and autonomous vehicles.

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 PROCESS SAFETY AND 4TH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

● Communication • Real time discussion and monitoring

● Big Data • Automation of hazard identification studies (e.g. Hazop) - Digitalization of data • Identification of weak signals - All data is linked • Big Data Mining (Huge amounts of data can be analyzed easily) • Geo-localization of people

● Robotics - Drones  Inspection of equipment  Measurement of gas compositions - Movement of robots  Humans can be removed from hazardous interventions

● Artificial Intelligence • Potential high risk deviations can be stopped automatically by robots • Advanced trouble shooting

● Nano-technology . Intelligent materials and machines (auto-detection) before failure

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 INDUSTRY 4.0

● Industry 4.0 is a name for the current trend of automation and data exchange in manufacturing technologies. It includes cyber-physical systems, the IoT, cloud computing and cognitive computing.

● Industry 4.0 creates what has been called a "smart factory". Within the modular structured smart factories, cyber-physical systems monitor physical processes, create a virtual copy of the physical world and make decentralized decisions.

Digital is one of the 3 challenges we have to face in the future CEO speech @ Total Review Convention (March 15)

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 ROADMAP FOR BECOMING A DIGITAL OIL AND GAS COMPANY

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 Holding Chief Digital Officer DIGITAL ORGANIZATION WITHIN TOTAL HSE Digital Reference Group Data Officer (senior manager in Innovation Ecosystem HSE Direction) Digital Work Practice

Exploration & Refining & Marketing & Gas, RE Production Chemicals Services & Power Transverse

Close to Business DIGITAL SUB-SURFACE

Hand in Hand with IT DIGITAL INDUSTRIAL

DIGITAL MARKETING

DIGITAL WORK PRACTICE

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 REAL EXAMPLE: DIGITAL@REFINERY_1 ROADMAP 2018-2019 Thematic Operational challenges Solutions

. Deploy mobile solutions to improve operators, . Use of drones for inspection (flare, tanks) . Deploy wireless sensors Connectivity maintenance and inspections round .… . Retrieve missing process data

. APC plan prioritised per unit . APC development . Trendminer . Increase efficiency of trouble shooters, . Prism . Increase plant availability and limit unplanned Asset . …. failures performance

. Minimize engineering rework / improve quality and . Quantum project decrease project costs Project efficiency

. Roadmap 2018-2019 with implementation of quick wins ideas (14 prioritised) after a successful Digital challenge via build’inn. . Reduce unproductive time losses . TIM apps selected for deployment #Myshift Enhanced afterwards #Mynotif next #MyValve followed operator by #MyPairing

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 26 WORLDWIDE DRILLING REAL TIME SUPPORT CENTER (RTSC)

Houston 24/7 4 screens/rig 2 Drilling Analysts Daily drilling reports Alerts notifications

Pau CSTJF Drilling engineers and analysts Daily drilling analysis Performance Monitoring Real Time simulation Improvement proposals

35 Wells monitored Safer operations Faster decisions Learning curve accelerator

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 DAILY REAL TIME COMMUNICATION WITH ALL CONTROL ROOMS CENTRAL CRISIS ROOMS MAKE EXTENSIVE USE OF 4IR TECHNOLOGIES

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 29 “Data is the backbone of TOTAL’s Digital Industrial Strategy, and the base of a set of services to be developed”

Services Owned, Controlled and Reliable Data Services

All strategic Physical Digital Assets have a trusted IOT Data Driven Collaborative Digital twin for Asset Performance Environment Performance Remote services Analytics Asset lifecycle All strategic platforms and people connected Predictive capabilities around a new operating model Extended enterprise New Business Models efficiency standardization #cost #availability Services #operational excellence Mobility #cost Enhanced Digital Real-time data Continuity Operator

collaboration Simplification

Performance gains

3D visualization

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 Quantum is the Digital Twin of an installation (greenfield & existing asset)

Quantum is an information management program enabling instant visualisation of the installation with access to all key up to date technical and operational information

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 Unification of different data platforms into ONE search platform 50 Million Documents (target 12-18 months)

Portail Matrix Portail Touareg 10 Millions docs 6 Millions docs

Portail Reflex Portail CTG Portail RefMS 200 k docs

Portail SEEN 28 Millions docs

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 DATA MINING OF BIG DATA

Common ground = Data Analytics

“Be an energy leader in the CSE and data “Data is the backbone of science field by 2023” TOTAL’s Digital Industrial Strategy, R&D DIGITAL and the base of a set of services to be developed“ CSE DDAP Computational Data-Driven Asset Science Performance Engineering Data Analytic Data s Incubator

“Leverage data as an enterprise asset: DSI implement a data-centric architecture allowing for insightful exploitation of data originating from existing or new sources of data including IoT“

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 DRONES: THICKNESS MEASUREMENT ON VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL SURFACES

• Arms to allow contact with surfaces • Rotor to maintain drone in contact • Equipped with specific ultrasonic module • Water coupling system to allow measurement

Drone positioning Data acquisition Live monitoring and recording

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 DJI M200

High Frequency: 24Hz Real time, wireless, on High Sensitivity ground concentration CO @ 0.5 ppm 2 monitoring CH4 @ 1ppb saturation issues @ 20 ppm Possibility to built a “Bi-range” device

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 ● R&D project (4 M€) by European consortium (Universities + Industries), funded by EU. ● The hybrid drone shall fly to area, land & move on HMR (Hybrid Mobile Robot) piping. ● For piping inspection: - UT spot, UT grid, UT scan - Close Visual Inspection, Corrosion profile

● 2 prototypes to be developed HMR & HRA HRA (Hybrid Robot with Arm)

Participants: CREATE, FADA-CATAC, TOTAL, Chevron Oronite, DASEL, AIR, OUY, USE

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 ROBOTICS

Robot for fire fighting Humanoid robot

Robot for in-pipe inspection

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 TIM APPS | WORK DONE & 2018 EXISTING WORKPLAN

2017 2018

#MyShift Dematerialize field rounds and send data to PI In 2018 additional apps and #MyNotif Initiate maintenance notifications technical modules will complete the TIM apps #MySafety Raise HSE observations store #MyValves Report valves status to DCS #MyTracking Temporary manage equipments #MyHandover Consolidate shift handover report #MySupport Assist remotely operators #MyDoc Access pre-selected documents #MyCheck Accept intervention execution quality #MyPairing Associate physical tags to equipment SECE Conducting SECE rounds Workbook Conducting inspection rounds MyTeam 39 Manage users for all applications GEO-LOCALIZATION OF PEOPLE

● Several new systems are currently be tested: - Via safety shoes

- Via helmet

- …

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 The concept is still the same but the way assets are designed, constructed and operated are changing

o Compliance with o Safe Operation approved standards o Procedures Operating o Meeting project Design requirements o People competency Integrity Integrity o Incorporating recommendations from TRA in the design Integrity Leadership

o Compliance with project specs o Plant Inspection Construction Technical o Materials o Maintenance Integrity Integrity QA/QC

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 4IR : NEW OPPORTUNITIES & ADDITIONAL RISKS

● Opportunities

- Weak signals can be detected very fast (« immediately »)

- Potential high risk deviations can be stopped automatically by robots

- Hazardous interventions can be done without physical presence of humans

- Huge amounts of data can be analyzed easily

- Intelligent materials and machines (auto-detection) before failure

● Additional Risks

- Loss of control over the installation (« digital runaway »)

- Lack of understanding of the processes

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 42 NEW TECHNOLOGIES BRING NEW RISKS

● In the cockpit there are three flight computers and digital instrument panels operating in parallel: two primary systems and one backup. Each system is fed by an independent set of sensors.

● To industry outsiders, it is a shock: “what could have brought down one of Boeing’s newest, most technologically sophisticated airplanes”?

● For sure that the experts during the investigation will reveal « weak signals » but in one of the most regulated industries … after the accident

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 43 SUMMARY

● The Fourth Industrial Revolution is a reality ● There is no doubt that there will be an impact on how technological risks will have to be managed ● Re-engineering of our current approach towards (process) safety is needed: - Automation of hazard identification studies and risk assessments - Use of advanced reality for training of operators - Use of digital in all safety management activities (work permits, standards, safety tours, safety meetings, learning, etc.) - Extensive use of robots for high risk tasks

Delft, Loss Prevention 2019