TECHNOLOGICAL RISK MANAGEMENT & THE 4TH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION Pol HOORELBEKE Vice President HSE Audits, Major Accident Investigations and REX Delft LP2019 PURPOSE OF THE PRESENTATION Our industry is in the middle of the 4th industrial revolution. How will the 4th industrial revolution impact the way we manage process safety? Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 2 The influence of the First and Second Industrial Revolution on th emanagement of safety in industry Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 3 4 FIRST AND SECOND INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION ● The First Industrial Revolution took place from the 18th to 19th centuries in Europe and America. It was a period when mostly agrarian, rural societies became industrial and urban. The iron and textile industries, along with the development of the steam engine, played central roles in the Industrial Revolutions ● The Second Industrial Revolution took place between 1870 and 1914, just before World War I. It was a period of growth for pre-existing industries and expansion of new ones, such as steel, oil and electricity, and used electric power to create mass production. Major technological advances during this period included the telephone, light bulb, phonograph and the internal combustion machine Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 « UPSTAIR, DOWNSTAIRS » LIFE IN THE 19TH CENTURY Child work at machine Young coal miners Child « hurriers » Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 6 Second International (1889 – 1916) – Socialist movement 1. Henri Van Kol (1852-1925) – Dutch 2. Manuel Ugarte (1875-1951). Argentin 3. Antonin Nemec (1858-1925). Czech 4. 4 Edouard Vaillant (1840-1915). French 5. Frantisek Soukop (1871-1940). Czech 6. Rosa Luxemburg (1871-1919). Polish 7. Victor Adler (1852-1918). Austrian. 8. Karl Kautsky (1854-1938). Germand 9. Maksymilian Walecki (1877-1937). Polish 10.Emile Vandervelde (1866-1938). Belgian. 11.Jean Longuet (1876-1938). French. 12.Enrico Ferri (1852-1929). Italian 13.Amilcare Cipriani (1843-1918). Italian 14.Pieter Jelles Troelstra (1860-1930). Ducth 15.Henry Hyndman (1842-1921). English 16.Ernest Belfort Bax (1854-1921). English 17.Olav Kringen (1867-1951). Norwegian 18.Sen Katayama (1859-1933). Japanees 19.Georgii Plekhanoc (1856-1918). Russian 20.Alexandre Desrousseaux (1861-1955). French 21.Peter Knudsen (1848-1910). Danish 22.Morris Hillquit (1869-1933). American. 23.Achille Cambier. Argentin 24.Dadabhai Naoroji (1825-1917). Indian 25.Edward Anseele (1856-1938). Belgian. Leaders of the 2nd International at Amsterdam Congress 1904 Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 7 IMPACT OF 1ST AND 2ND IR ON SAFETY ● Awareness of Occupational Health and Safety at work (quest for justice): - 1864: The International Workingmen's Association (IWA, 1864–1876) aimed at uniting a variety of different socialist, communist and trade organizations that were based on the working class. Five to Eight million members - 1889: Second International (1889 – 1916) – Socialist movement - 1919: Creation of ILO - the International Labor Office (article 392 of the Treaty of Versailles) Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 20th century: more understanding of causes of work related accidents The Pitsburgh Survey (1908) draws attention on safety provisions in the US Steel Corporation: technical measures, machine guarding, Committees of safety, inspection activities, checklists, the « Human Element » Herbert William Heinrich (1886 - 1962 ): • 75,000 accidents • Heinrich‘s Law (1-29-300) Frank Bird (1921 - 2007 ): • 88:10:2 ratio (unsafe acts-unsafe 1 753 498 accidents, 297 companies conditions-) Rule 1:10:30:600 Loss Causation Model James Reason (1938 - ): • Aviation industry • Importance of Human Error and Organizational accidents Organizational Behavior Holnagel (2004) Management • Functional Resonance Accident • Psychological approaches Model (FRAM) • Sociological approaches Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 IMPACT OF 1IR & 2IR ON SAFETY: STANDARDIZATION 1917 • DIN (Deutsches Institut für Normung) in Germany 1918 • British Engineering Standards Committee (founded in 1901) is transformed in the British Engineering Standards Association (BESA) • American National Standards Institute. The first standard (American Standard Safety Code, ASSC) was approved in 1921 for protection of eyes and head of workers in industry 1926 • International Standards Association (ISA) (transformed in 1947 in ISO) • Association française de normalisation (AFNOR) in France ….. Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 MAJOR ACCIDENTS IN THE ’60 - ’80 PERIOD 1965 1973 Rotterdam (Nl) St Amand les Eaux (Fr) Explosion during cleaning BLEVE road tanker sea going vessel 9 killed, 45 injured 16 killed 1966 1974 Feyzin (Fr) Flixborough (UK) BLEVE refinery VCE chemical site 18 killed, 81 injured 28 killed , 104 injuries 1967 1975 Martelange (Be) Beek (Nl) BLEVE truck 22 killed, 47 injured VCE steamcracker 14 killed, 107 injured 1968 Pernis (Nl) 1976 VCE refinery Seveso (It) 2 killed, 85 injured Release of TCDD 1968 115,000 people exposed Amsterdam (Nl) Explosion oiltanker 1977 in refinery Brindishi (It) 13 killed, 2 injured VCE steamcracker 1969 3 killed, 107 injured Bingen (Ge) 500 l endosulfan leak 600 km water pollution 1971 1978 20 million fish killed Amsterdam (Nl) San Carlos (Sp) Butadiene explosion BLEVE road tanker 11 9 killed, 22 injured Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 216 killed, 200 injured ● The Third Industrial Revolution, or the Digital Revolution, refers to the advancement of technology from analog electronic and mechanical devices to the digital technology available today. ● 3IR started during the 1980s and is ongoing. ● Advancements during the Third Industrial Revolution include: - the personal computer; - internet and - information and communication technology (ICT). Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 IMPACT OF 3IR ON SAFETY ● Development of advanced calculations codes • Computational Fluid Dynamics & Finite Element models • Dynamic dispersion modelling • Explosion modelling ● Development of Risk based approaches • Quantitative Risk Assessments • Fault Tree Analysis • Risk Based Inspection • … ● Computer aided methods • HAZOP • Accident Databases • ….. CURRENT REQUIRED FIELD OF KNOWLEDGE FOR THE SENIOR PROCESS ENGINEER: A COMPLEX SUBJECT Specific methods, techniques and knowledge Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 Key issues related to Technological Risk Management Asset integrity is the capability to operate an asset so that it safeguards life and environment whilst meeting production objectives during the operational phase of its lifecycle o Compliance with o Safe Operation approved standards o Procedures Operating o Meeting project Design requirements o People competency Integrity Integrity o Incorporating recommendations from TRA in the design Integrity Leadership o Compliance with project specs o Plant Inspection Construction Technical o Materials o Maintenance Integrity Integrity QA/QC Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 ANTWERP REFINING AND PETROCHEMICAL COMPLEX 16 17 Deep Offshore 18 YAMAL LNG . Yamal LNG is Russian OPCO: 51% Novatek, 20% Total and Chinese 20% CNPC and 9% Silk Road Found . TOTAL owns19% of Novatek . 600 km north the artic circle . 2 montsh without sun . 2 months without night Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 19 20 FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION (4IR) ● The Fourth Industrial Revolution builds on the Digital Revolution, representing new ways in which technology becomes embedded within societies and even the human body. ● The Fourth Industrial Revolution is marked by emerging technology breakthroughs in a number of fields, including robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, quantum computing, biotechnology, the IoT, 3D printing and autonomous vehicles. Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 PROCESS SAFETY AND 4TH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION ● Communication • Real time discussion and monitoring ● Big Data • Automation of hazard identification studies (e.g. Hazop) - Digitalization of data • Identification of weak signals - All data is linked • Big Data Mining (Huge amounts of data can be analyzed easily) • Geo-localization of people ● Robotics - Drones Inspection of equipment Measurement of gas compositions - Movement of robots Humans can be removed from hazardous interventions ● Artificial Intelligence • Potential high risk deviations can be stopped automatically by robots • Advanced trouble shooting ● Nano-technology . Intelligent materials and machines (auto-detection) before failure Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 INDUSTRY 4.0 ● Industry 4.0 is a name for the current trend of automation and data exchange in manufacturing technologies. It includes cyber-physical systems, the IoT, cloud computing and cognitive computing. ● Industry 4.0 creates what has been called a "smart factory". Within the modular structured smart factories, cyber-physical systems monitor physical processes, create a virtual copy of the physical world and make decentralized decisions. Digital is one of the 3 challenges we have to face in the future CEO speech @ Total Review Convention (March 15) Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 ROADMAP FOR BECOMING A DIGITAL OIL AND GAS COMPANY Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 Holding Chief Digital Officer DIGITAL ORGANIZATION WITHIN TOTAL HSE Digital Reference Group Data Officer (senior manager in Innovation Ecosystem HSE Direction) Digital Work Practice Exploration & Refining & Marketing & Gas, RE Production Chemicals Services & Power Transverse Close to Business DIGITAL SUB-SURFACE Hand in Hand with IT DIGITAL INDUSTRIAL DIGITAL MARKETING DIGITAL WORK PRACTICE Delft, Loss Prevention 2019 REAL EXAMPLE: DIGITAL@REFINERY_1 ROADMAP 2018-2019 Thematic Operational challenges Solutions . Deploy mobile solutions