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Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning in Tajikistan MONTHLY REPORT NOVEMBER 2014 Publication of this report from August 2014 is made possible by the support of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and MEWS Working Group. The contents are the sole responsibility of the MEDT of RT and FAST Program, which do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - November 2014 1 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - November 2014 GENERAL TRENDS NATURAL HAZARDS In November, the probability of weather emergencies is moderate. Heavy rain, snow and frost are possible at lower elevations. WEATHER Temperatures in November will be within the norm in Khatlon Province and at lower elevations in the DRD, Temperatures will be 10C above the long-term average in Sughd Province and 1-20C above the long-term average in GBAO and higher elevations in the DRD. Monthly precipitation is expected to be within the norm throughout the Republic. ENERGY SECURITY Electricity generation in October decreased by 24.8 percent compared to September 2014. The water level in the Nurek reservoir in October was 1.19 meters lower than in September 2014. From October 1, 2014 the supply of electricity was limited across districts due to the reduction of water flow from the Vakhsh River and the need to fill the Nurek reservoir for winter. FOOD SECURITY In November, despite good regional food availability, wheat grain and wheat flour prices are expected to increase due to regional export prices in Tajikistan. The persistent depreciation of the national currency will put upward pressure on imported food and fuel prices. Regional food availability was generally good. HEALTH The risk of acute respiratory viral infections, including the flu, increases with the beginning of the cold season. MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES With the onset of cold weather, seasonal migration declined. Indicators of overall migration levels in October 2014 were lower compared to the same period of the last year. In January-October 2014, the number of migrant workers was 15.2 percent less than in the same period of 2013. ECONOMY The GDP totaled 31,596.7 million TJS (5,513.8 million USD) for January-September 2014. Industrial production increased by 5.6 percent compared to the same period in 2013. Consumer price inflation was 5.7 percent compared to December 2013. The total balance of bank credits was 9.2 billion TJS (1,885.2 million USD) for the first nine months of 2014. The volume of loans granted by banks amounted to 8.2 billion TJS (1,680.3 million USD). In January-September 2014 foreign trade turnover was equal to 4,302.9 million USD, 12.8 percent more than in the same period in 2013. Exports totaled 776.9 million USD, and imports totaled 3,526 million USD. 2 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - November 2014 Contents 1. NATURAL HAZARDS .................................................................................................................. 4 1.1. Possible natural disasters in November 2014 ...................................................................... 4 1.2 Natural disasters in October 2014 ............................................................................................. 5 2. WEATHER CONDITIONS ........................................................................................................... 5 2.1. Forecast for November 2014. ............................................................................................... 5 2.2. Weather summary for October 2014 .................................................................................... 6 3. ENERGY ...................................................................................................................................... 6 3.1. Electricity Generation ........................................................................................................... 6 3.2. Electricity Consumption ........................................................................................................ 7 3.3. Natural and liquefied gas ...................................................................................................... 8 3.4. Coal ...................................................................................................................................... 8 3.5. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant Reservoir ........................................................ 9 4. FOOD SECURITY ..................................................................................................................... 10 4.1. Food Security Reports ........................................................................................................ 10 4.2. Wheat Flour Prices ............................................................................................................. 12 4.3. Fuel Prices .......................................................................................................................... 13 5. HEALTH ..................................................................................................................................... 15 6. ECONOMIC TRENDS ............................................................................................................... 16 6.1. General trends .................................................................................................................... 16 6.2. Labor Migration of Population ............................................................................................ 18 6.3. Employment ........................................................................................................................ 19 6.4. Exchange Rate ................................................................................................................... 19 Annex A - Weather forecast for November 2014 ............................................................................... 21 3 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - November 2014 1. NATURAL HAZARDS 1.1. Possible natural disasters in November 2014 According to the Information Management and Analytical Center (IMAC) of the Committee on Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan (CoES and CD), and according to long-term observations, the probability of an emergency caused by weather conditions is moderate in November 2014. Heavy rain is possible at lower elevations, as well as snow and frost. Table 1. Historical data on Natural disasters in November 2000-2013 Causes of Natural disasters Total 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Flood 1 1 Rain 1 1 2 Wind 1 1 2 Earthquake 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 10 1 1 1 3 Landslide, rockfall 1 1 Mudflow Avalanche 1 1 2 Snowfall, frost 2 2 Total 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 4 5 1 1 23 4 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - November 2014 1.2 Natural disasters in October 2014 IMAC/CoES reported that in October 2014 there were three natural disasters, including two earthquakes and one landslide: On October 1 at 08:12, an earthquake struck in southwestern Rasht with its epicenter at a depth of 14 km, in northwestern Tavildara district at a depth of 27 km, and northeast of Dushanbe at a depth of 139 km. On the MSK scale the magnitude of the earthquake’s epicenter was 5 points, 4-5 points in Rasht, and 4 points in the Tavildara district. There were no casualties or damage. On October 1 at 21:49, an earthquake struck with its epicenter at a depth of 76 km northeast of Dushanbe, southwest of Roghun at a depth of 10 km, and at a depth of 11 km southwest of Obigarm. The magnitude of the earthquake’s epicenter was 5 points, 4-5 points in Roghun, and 2 points in Dushanbe on the MSK scale. There were no casualties or damage. On October 11 at 18:30, in the Sangrez jamoat in the Lohuti Khovaling district a bridge and a section of road were damaged as a result of scree falling to the Obimazor River. There were no casualties. For more detailed and recent information on the review of natural disasters in October 2014 contact the MEWS Center Working Group at: [email protected]. 2. WEATHER CONDITIONS1 2.1. Forecast for November 2014. According to the Tajik Hydrometeorology Center, Table 2. Average expected precipitation the average monthly temperature in November – November 2014 г. 2014 will be: Regions Precipitation Lower Khatlon 12-48 mm Within the norm in Khatlon Province and lower elevations Province elevations of Direct Ruled Districts (DRD); Foothills 54-69 mm Lower 11-26 mm 1°C above the long term average in Sughd Sughd elevations Province Higher 9-18 мmm Province; elevations 0 Lower 1-2 C above the long term average in the Gorno- 12-48 mm elevations DRD Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) and Higher 23-99 mm higher elevations of DRD. elevations West 5-33 mm GBAO East 1-6 mm Monthly precipitation is expected to be less than average throughout the country (See Annex A for a more detailed forecast for November 2014.) 1 Information in Sections 2.1, 2.2 and Annex A is based on the reports of the State Hydrometeorology Agency of Tajikistan. 5 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - November 2014 2.2. Weather summary for October 2014 October in the Republic was characterized by moderately hot weather. The average monthly temperature was within the norm everywhere and only in GBAO was 1-20C above the norm. The temperature was: At lower elevations and in the foothills, from 11°C
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