Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of

Monitoring and Early Warning in Tajikistan

MONTHLY REPORT NOVEMBER 2014

Publication of this report from August 2014 is made possible by the support of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and MEWS Working Group. The contents are the sole responsibility of the MEDT of RT and FAST Program, which do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - November 2014

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Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - November 2014

GENERAL TRENDS

NATURAL HAZARDS In November, the probability of weather emergencies is moderate. Heavy rain, snow and frost are possible at lower elevations. WEATHER Temperatures in November will be within the norm in Khatlon Province and at lower elevations in the DRD, Temperatures will be 10C above the long-term average in Sughd Province and 1-20C above the long-term average in GBAO and higher elevations in the DRD. Monthly precipitation is expected to be within the norm throughout the Republic. ENERGY SECURITY Electricity generation in October decreased by 24.8 percent compared to September 2014. The water level in the Nurek reservoir in October was 1.19 meters lower than in September 2014. From October 1, 2014 the supply of electricity was limited across districts due to the reduction of water flow from the Vakhsh River and the need to fill the Nurek reservoir for winter. FOOD SECURITY In November, despite good regional food availability, wheat grain and wheat flour prices are expected to increase due to regional export prices in Tajikistan. The persistent depreciation of the national currency will put upward pressure on imported food and fuel prices. Regional food availability was generally good. HEALTH The risk of acute respiratory viral infections, including the flu, increases with the beginning of the cold season. MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES With the onset of cold weather, seasonal migration declined. Indicators of overall migration levels in October 2014 were lower compared to the same period of the last year. In January-October 2014, the number of migrant workers was 15.2 percent less than in the same period of 2013. ECONOMY The GDP totaled 31,596.7 million TJS (5,513.8 million USD) for January-September 2014. Industrial production increased by 5.6 percent compared to the same period in 2013. Consumer price inflation was 5.7 percent compared to December 2013. The total balance of bank credits was 9.2 billion TJS (1,885.2 million USD) for the first nine months of 2014. The volume of loans granted by banks amounted to 8.2 billion TJS (1,680.3 million USD). In January-September 2014 foreign trade turnover was equal to 4,302.9 million USD, 12.8 percent more than in the same period in 2013. Exports totaled 776.9 million USD, and imports totaled 3,526 million USD.

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Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - November 2014

Contents 1. NATURAL HAZARDS ...... 4 1.1. Possible natural disasters in November 2014 ...... 4 1.2 Natural disasters in October 2014 ...... 5 2. WEATHER CONDITIONS ...... 5 2.1. Forecast for November 2014...... 5 2.2. Weather summary for October 2014 ...... 6 3. ENERGY ...... 6 3.1. Electricity Generation ...... 6 3.2. Electricity Consumption ...... 7 3.3. Natural and liquefied gas ...... 8 3.4. Coal ...... 8 3.5. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant Reservoir ...... 9 4. FOOD SECURITY ...... 10 4.1. Food Security Reports ...... 10 4.2. Wheat Flour Prices ...... 12 4.3. Fuel Prices ...... 13 5. HEALTH ...... 15 6. ECONOMIC TRENDS ...... 16 6.1. General trends ...... 16 6.2. Labor Migration of Population ...... 18 6.3. Employment ...... 19 6.4. Exchange Rate ...... 19 Annex A - Weather forecast for November 2014 ...... 21

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1. NATURAL HAZARDS

1.1. Possible natural disasters in November 2014 According to the Information Management and Analytical Center (IMAC) of the Committee on Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan (CoES and CD), and according to long-term observations, the probability of an emergency caused by weather conditions is moderate in November 2014. Heavy rain is possible at lower elevations, as well as snow and frost.

Table 1. Historical data on Natural disasters in November

2000-2013

Causes of Natural disasters Total

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Flood 1 1

Rain 1 1 2

Wind 1 1 2

Earthquake 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 10

1 1 1 3 Landslide, rockfall 1 1 Mudflow Avalanche 1 1 2

Snowfall, frost 2 2

Total 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 4 5 1 1 23

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1.2 Natural disasters in October 2014 IMAC/CoES reported that in October 2014 there were three natural disasters, including two earthquakes and one landslide: On October 1 at 08:12, an earthquake struck in southwestern Rasht with its epicenter at a depth of 14 km, in northwestern district at a depth of 27 km, and northeast of at a depth of 139 km. On the MSK scale the magnitude of the earthquake’s epicenter was 5 points, 4-5 points in Rasht, and 4 points in the Tavildara district. There were no casualties or damage. On October 1 at 21:49, an earthquake struck with its epicenter at a depth of 76 km northeast of Dushanbe, southwest of at a depth of 10 km, and at a depth of 11 km southwest of . The magnitude of the earthquake’s epicenter was 5 points, 4-5 points in Roghun, and 2 points in Dushanbe on the MSK scale. There were no casualties or damage. On October 11 at 18:30, in the Sangrez jamoat in the Lohuti Khovaling district a bridge and a section of road were damaged as a result of scree falling to the Obimazor River. There were no casualties. For more detailed and recent information on the review of natural disasters in October 2014 contact the MEWS Center Working Group at: [email protected].

2. WEATHER CONDITIONS1 2.1. Forecast for November 2014.

According to the Tajik Hydrometeorology Center, Table 2. Average expected precipitation the average monthly temperature in November – November 2014 г. 2014 will be: Regions Precipitation Lower Khatlon 12-48 mm Within the norm in Khatlon Province and lower elevations Province elevations of Direct Ruled Districts (DRD); Foothills 54-69 mm Lower 11-26 mm 1°C above the long term average in Sughd Sughd elevations Province Higher 9-18 мmm Province; elevations 0 Lower 1-2 C above the long term average in the Gorno- 12-48 mm elevations DRD Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) and Higher 23-99 mm higher elevations of DRD. elevations West 5-33 mm GBAO East 1-6 mm Monthly precipitation is expected to be less than average throughout the country (See Annex A for a more detailed forecast for November 2014.)

1 Information in Sections 2.1, 2.2 and Annex A is based on the reports of the State Hydrometeorology Agency of Tajikistan.

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2.2. Weather summary for October 2014 October in the Republic was characterized by moderately hot weather. The average monthly temperature was within the norm everywhere and only in GBAO was 1-20C above the norm. The temperature was: At lower elevations and in the foothills, from 11°C to 17°C; At higher elevations, from 4°C to 12°C (in Darvoz 16°C); At higher elevations of GBAO, from 0°C to 2°C. The highest temperatures were observed during October 1-7, 16-17 and 20 when the maximum temperature in the lower elevations of Khatlon and DRD increased to 28-340C; in Sughd Province, 25-270C; in mountainous areas, up to 20-250C (in Rasht to 27-300C, in Darwoz to 28-320C). The average daily temperature was 4-5°C above the long-term averages. The lowest temperatures were recorded at the end of the month. On October 27 due to cold air flow, the temperature dropped to 9-180C at the lower elevations of Khatlon Province and DRD and to 220C in Sughd Province. The temperature was 8-140C at the lower elevations of Khatlon Province and DRD and 1-20C in Sughd Province. Rain turned to snow in most lower elevations.

Precipitation of varying intensity fell in most parts of the Table 3. Monthly Precipitation country at the beginning and end of the month. The Regions Less than heaviest precipitation fell on October 8 and 23. Monthly norm % precipitation in most districts was above average, but in Sughd Province 147-307% some was below the norm (see Table 3.) Khatlon Province 41-196% DRD 98-177% Fog was observed in lower elevations, foothills and Western GBAO 74-305% passes. Wind speeds up to 15-22 m/sec. and haze were EASTERN GBAO 18-250% registered in some places.

3. ENERGY

3.1. Electricity Generation2 According to the information of OJHC “Barqi Tojik,” total electricity generation in October 2014 was 1,054 million kilowatt-hours (kW/h), or 34.0 million kW/h per day. Electricity generation in October decreased by 24.8 percent (45.2 million kW/h) compared to September 2014. For more detailed information on electricity generation contact the MEWS Center at [email protected].

2 Data on electricity generation and consumption is provided by the Monitoring and Early Warning System (MEWS) Expert from Barqi Tojik.

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Electricity generation in October 2014 was 193.8 million kW/h less than in the same period of the last year (see Section 3.5 below). This is due to a reduction of electricity consumption by the Tajik Aluminum Company (TALCO). Total Electricity Generation – April 2010 – October 2014 (million kW/h)

3.2. Electricity Consumption The following table shows the average daily electricity consumption by major and by the Tajik Aluminum Company (TALCO), the largest commercial consumer. Total electricity consumption in October 2014 reached 1,006 million kW/h, 10.9 percent less than in September 2014. In October 2014 electricity consumption was 194 million kW/h less than in October 2013 (1,200 million kW/h). In October 2014 the 220 kW and 110 kW networks from Sangtuda-1 and Sangtuda-2 hydroelectric plants transmitted 46.9 million kW/h of electricity to Afghanistan, 2.7 million kW/h less than in the same period of the previous year and 4.5 percent of the total amount of electricity generated in Tajikistan. From October 1, 2014 there was a limit on the supply of electricity across districts due to the reduction of water flow from the Vakhsh River and the need to fill the Nurek Reservoir for winter. Last year a restriction on the supply of electricity was imposed from November 1. For more detailed information on electricity consumption contact the MEWS Center at: [email protected]).

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Total Average daily Electricity Consumption, April 2010-October 2014 (million kW/h)

3.3. Natural and liquefied gas The supply of natural gas to the Republic of Tajikistan was suspended in connection with completion of the contract with the Republic of Uzbekistan in December 2012. Tajikistan receives deliveries of liquefied gas by road and rail. According to the operational data of the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan, from January to October 2014 enterprises registered with the Ministry imported 186,572 tons of liquefied gas, mostly from the Republic of Kazakhstan, Republic of Turkmenistan and the Russian Federation. Imports amounted to 12,723 tons more than during the same period of 2013. In October 2014 liquefied gas imports were 18,669 tons, which is 1,429 tons less than in October of the previous year. More than 49 percent of the country's motor vehicles use liquefied gas as fuel because of the high price of gasoline.

3.4. Coal According to the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies, 97,429 tons of coal were produced in October 2014, which is 39,342 tons less than in September 2014. For January- October 2014, 691,664 tons of coal were produced in Tajikistan—256,143 tons or 158.8 percent more than in the same period of the previous year. Coal production has increased due to the commissioning of the first unit of the “Dushanbe-2” thermal power plant and a shift of the country’s industrial enterprises from more expensive natural gas and electricity to more economical coal for heating and other needs (e.g., for processing coal into gas for TALCO activities).

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3.5. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant Reservoir3 The Water Volume – Nurek HPP chart below shows the volume of the water in the Nurek Hydropower Plant (HPP) reservoir at the end of October 2014 compared to the average volume over the last nine years (2004 to 2013). At the end of October 2014, the water level in the Nurek HPP reservoir was 909.22 meters above sea level, which is 1.19 meters lower than in September 2014, 0.67 meters higher than in the same period in the previous year, and 52.22 meters above the “dead level” (inactive storage) (857 meters). In October 2014, average monthly inflow from the Vakhsh River was 350 m3/sec, 17.6 percent less compared to the same period of the last year. Water Volume – Nurek HPP (million m3)

The Water Inflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir chart below shows water inflow into the Nurek HPP. At the end of October 2014, the water inflow was 326 m3/sec, which is 26.1 m3/sec above the average of 299.9 m3/sec for 2004-2013. Water Inflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir (m3/sec)

3 Data obtained from OJHC “Barqi Tojik”

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As indicated in the Water Outflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir chart below, the average water discharge from the Nurek HPP reservoir at the end of October 2014 amounted to 391 m3/sec, which is lower than the 9-year-old average of 504.9 m3/sec. Water Outflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir (m3/sec)

4. FOOD SECURITY

4.1. Food Security Reports According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of RT, the most important imported food products are grain and flour. During January-September 2014, 498.8 thousand tons of grain at an average price of 299 USD per ton and 125.4 thousand tons of flour at an average price of 411 USD per ton were imported into the Republic, which is 22.3 percent more grain and 15 percent less flour compared to the same period of the previous year. In October 2014 the prices of wheat flour increased insignificantly in comparison with September 2014. As of November 7, 2014, the average price of one 50-kilogram bag of domestically-produced first grade flour was 144.5 TJS (28.8 USD). The average in September was 141.75 TJS (28.4 USD). The price of first grade flour produced in Kazakhstan was 153.13 TJS (30.6 USD) in Dushanbe markets. In January-September 2014, the average price of imported oil products was 856 USD per ton, a fall of 18 percent compared to January-September of the previous year. During this period 438.9 thousand tons of oil products were imported into the Republic, 165.6 thousand tons more than in the last year. Those imports included 188.9 thousand tons of diesel fuel imported at an average price of 843 USD per ton and 192.2 thousand tons of gasoline at an average price of 765 USD per ton. For more detailed information please contact the MEWS Working Group at: [email protected].

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According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan, this year grain was sown on 309,738 hectares (ha) of land. As of November 9, 2014, 279,604 ha of land (90.3 percent of the forecast area) had been harvested. The grain harvest was 766,935 tons, 35,390 tons less than for the same period of the previous year. The average yield per hectare was 2.8 tons, 0.07 tons more than for the same period of the previous year. For more detailed information please contact the MEWS Working Group at: [email protected].

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network for September (FEWS NET) PRICE WATCH: Food Commodity Prices for September reported: Regional food availability was generally good in September. Wheat grain production estimates for 2014 in Kazakhstan, the region’s largest producer and exporter, are slightly below their respective 2013 and five-year average levels (FAO). Wheat export prices there have been stable since June, ahead of harvests in mid-August. Export prices remain lower than their respective 2013 levels, and are similar to the five-year average. In Tajikistan, both wheat grain and flour prices remained stable in September. In September, wheat harvests were complete in the country’s lowlands and higher-elevation areas. Harvest estimates are currently slightly lower than their corresponding 2013 levels. Imported wheat flour prices (mostly from Kazakhstan) were stable in September and comparable to their respective 2013 and five-year average levels. This is despite the gradual depreciation of the somoni (TJS) since the beginning of 2014. Potato prices were stable in September after declining drastically between May and July due to increased availability from recent and ongoing local harvests, as well as those in other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Prices are 13 percent higher than the corresponding 2013 and five-year average levels in Tajikistan, due to the lingering effects of regional potato production shortfalls last year.

Outlook The current FAO wheat harvest outlook in Kazakhstan is estimated at just over 13.5 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2014/2015 marketing year. Despite some concerns about rainfall levels and distribution earlier in the production season, normal wheat harvests are expected in the northern major wheat-producing areas. Export volumes estimates for the 2014/15 marketing year have been revised downwards due to slightly below average production and high export volumes during the previous marketing year. Indeed, export projects are now 15 percent lower than their respective near-average 2013 levels (FAO). Although regional food availability is expected to be adequate, wheat grain and flour prices are expected to increase in structurally-deficit Tajikistan due to increased regional export prices. The persistent depreciation of local currencies will put upward pressure on imported food and fuel prices.

The full FEWS NET report is available at: http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Price%20Watch%20Sept2014.pdf

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The FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System on food and agriculture (GIEWS) Update for October 30, 2014 reports: In Tajikistan harvesting of 2014 winter and spring crops, mainly wheat, barley and maize, was completed by the end of September. FAO’s latest estimate puts 2014 wheat production at 745,000 tonnes, 4 percent below last year’s near-average level. The decrease is the result of lower yields, following shortages of irrigation water during the growing season and a small contraction in area planted. Similarly, 2014 maize production is estimated to decrease by 7 percent compared to last year’s good level and reach 100,000 tonnes. The 2014 aggregate cereal output is set at 1.1 million tonnes, 3 percent down from last year’s good level and close to the five-year average. Planting of 2015 winter crops, including wheat and barley, started in mid-August and will continue until mid-November. Weather conditions between August and mid-October have been generally favorable, benefiting planting activities and early development of crops. The country depends heavily on cereal imports, mainly wheat, which accounts for almost 98 percent of the total cereal import requirements. Wheat imports in the 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 1.05 million tonnes, 4 percent above last year’s near-average level. Wheat and barley are mainly imported from Kazakhstan, while rice is largely sourced from the Russian Federation. Prices of wheat flour strengthened somewhat in September and were around their levels at the same time last year. The slight decrease in the 2014 wheat output, compared with the previous two years of good production, more than compensated the downward pressure from the recently-completed harvest. Prices of staple potatoes remained unchanged or continued to decline and were well below their peaks of May this year, although they remained generally higher than in September 2013. According to official reports, approximately 35 percent of the population was estimated to live under the poverty line in 2013. The ratio of households’ budget allocated to food remained high and was estimated at around 56 percent in early 2014. The full report is available at: http://reliefweb.int/report/tajikistan/giews-country- brieftajikistan-30-october-2014

4.2. Wheat Flour Prices4

First Grade Wheat Flour The chart below shows prices for first grade wheat flour in Dushanbe, Khujand, and Kurgan-Tyube markets from January 2008 to late October 2014. In October 2014 a slight increase in wheat flour prices was observed in Dushanbe markets in comparison with September, but prices remained unchanged in Khujand markets and decreased slightly in Kurgan-Tyube markets.

4 Food and fuel prices are from UN WFP Food Security Weekly Market Monitoring, Tajikistan http://untj.org/country_context/coordination_mechanisms/agriculture&food_security/fsms/

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First Grade Wheat Flour Prices in three main markets for January 2008 – October 2014 (TJS/kg)

The chart below provides prices for first grade wheat flour in two large regional markets in and Khorog and the average prices for Dushanbe, Khujand and Kurgan-Tyube. In October 2014, a slight increase in wheat flour prices was observed in Khorog and Gharm. First Grade Wheat Flour Prices in Gharm, Khorog, and the average in three main markets for January 2008 – October 2014 (TJS/kg)

4.3. Fuel Prices In October 2014 petrol and diesel prices remained unchanged in all markets of Khujand and Kurgan-Tyube. Prices decreased slightly in Dushanbe markets. The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade predicts an increase in the prices of petroleum products, oil and lubricants on the commodity exchanges in Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, leading to a 20 percent increase in the prices of petroleum products, oil and lubricants in the fourth quarter in Tajikistan.

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Petrol Prices in three main markets for January 2008 – October 2014 (TJS/liter)

Diesel Prices in three main markets for January 2008 – October 2014 (TJS/liter)

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5. HEALTH According to the Ministry of Health and Social Protection of the Population of RT, as of November 1, 2014, the epidemiological situation and trends on major notifiable infectious diseases are relatively good. Compared to the same period of 2013, there is:

. a comparative decline in Table 4. Statistical data on the epidemiological situation for January- the number of cases of October 2014 in comparison with the same period of the last year intestinal infections and Change # Name of disease 2013 2014 water-borne diseases, (-), (+) including acute intestinal 1 Typhoid Fever 108 55 -53 infections; 2 Acute intestinal 51870 42182 -9688 . a comparative reduction in infections the number of cases of 3 Dysentery 1044 888 -156 Typhoid fever; 4 Brucellosis 722 790 +68 . a reduction in the number 5 Pertussis 2 4 +2 of viral hepatitis cases; 6 Anthrax 30 19 -11 . a reduction in the number 7 Bites and Saliva Contact 12016 12016 0 of cases of acute respiratory 8 Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever 5 14 +9 viral infections; (CCHF) . a comparative increase in 9 Tuberculosis 3830 3434 -396 the number of cases of 10 Acute respiratory 193644 185609 -8035 Brucellosis; infections . a comparative increase in 11 Flu 12939 4017 -8922 the number of cases of Pertussis; . a comparative increase in the number of cases of Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF). With the beginning of the cold season, the risk of acute respiratory viral infections— including the flu—increases. For other infectious diseases the epidemiological situation is assessed as auspicious.

Table 5. Expected risks in November 2014 and recommended appropriate measures Expected risks Recommended appropriate measures The risk of rising incidence of acute Avoid close contact with people who have fever respiratory viral infections is possible and and cough. remains high due to the onset of cold Avoid crowded places or reduce time spent in weather. Also, the favorable climatic crowded places. conditions of the autumn-winter season can Practice proper hygiene - wash hands frequently contribute to this. with soap and water or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer, especially when touching mouth and nose. Increase the flow of fresh air into the home, and open windows as often as possible (ventilate). Use a protective mask when in contact with a sick

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person. Maintain a healthy lifestyle: good sleep, balanced nutrition, physical activity, regular walks, fresh air and exercise. The possibility of food poisoning. Maintain proper storage and transportation conditions of perishable foods. Be attentive to homemade canned food and follow specialists’ recommendations for proper use. According to official statistics from the State Strengthen the epidemiological control system and Veterinary Supervision Service, there has veterinary supervision. Establish maintenance of been an increase in the incidence of animals. Early detection and treatment of sick brucellosis among animals, which in turn animals. contributes to the growth of infection among the population contracting brucellosis from animals. Due to the fact that there is no registration, Strengthen control on the registration, certification certification, and regular vaccination of dogs and vaccination of domestic animals. If there is a (even in the capital city of the country) by violation of the rules of keeping animals (especially the Office of the State Veterinary dogs), bring the animals’ owners to account. Supervision, the risk of mortality from rabies remains high.

6. ECONOMIC TRENDS

6.1. General trends National economic development remained stable and economic growth continued to increase. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Republic increased by 6.9 percent compared to the same period of 2013 and amounted to 31,596.7 million TJS (6,469.2 million USD). The growth rate of GDP compared to the corresponding period of 2013 decreased by 0.5 percent. The deflator index of prices totaled 107.1 percent. GDP per capita increased from the same period of 2013 by 407.4 TJS (83.5 USD), or 9.1 percent, and totaled 3,831.4 TJS (784.4 USD). During the first nine months of 2014, industrial enterprises produced goods worth 7,080.4 million TJS (1,449.7 million USD), 5.6 percent more than in the same period of 2013. Growth in industrial production in January-September 2014, compared with the same period of 2013, is due to the significant growth in: mining industries – 26.4 percent, manufacturing – 1.4 percent, and the production and distribution of electricity, gas, and water – 4.6 percent. The mining industry’s share of industrial output was 14.7 percent, the manufacturing sector’s share (food, textile, petrochemical, and metallurgical industries) was 63 percent, and the share of the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water supply remained 22.3 percent. The volume of gross agricultural output (in all types of farms) in January-September of 2014 increased by 3.0 percent compared to the same period last year. 94.0 percent of

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agricultural output is in the private sector. Gross agricultural product in the reporting period amounted to 13,963.7 million TJS (2,858.9 million USD), including crop production—10,146.2 million TJS (2,077.3 million USD), or 1.3 percent more, and livestock—3,817.5 million TJS (781.6 million USD), or 7.3 percent more. For the first nine months of 2014, investments in fixed capital from all sources of finance were 4,821.6 million TJS or 987.2 million USD, 27.4 percent more than in the same period of the previous year. From January to September of 2014, investments amounting to 2,409.5 million TJS (493.3 million USD) (or 50 percent) were made in production facilities. Investments amounting to 2,412.1 million TJS (493.3 million USD), or 50 percent of total investment in the country, were made in non-production facilities. Most investments, 46 percent, were made in the public sector. The private sector accounted for 27.9 percent, joint ventures accounted for 7.2 percent, and foreign ownership accounted for 18.9 percent. In the construction of energy facilities, investment amounted to 799.8 million TJS (163.8 million USD), 26.6 percent more compared with the same period of the previous year. For the first nine months of the current year, the inflation rate in the consumer sector amounted to 5.7 percent in comparison with December 2013. The main contributors to inflation were food products—7 percent, paid services—7.3 percent, and non-food products—2.3 percent. According to the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tajikistan, for the first nine months of 2014 the total State budget amounted to 9,494.4 million TJS (1,943.9 million USD), or 30 percent of GDP. The total volume of credit balances for the first nine months of 2014 amounted to 9.2 billion TJS (1,885.2 million USD). Compared with the same time of the previous year, it increased by 29.9 percent. The positive trend of lending is due mainly to increasing balances of loans in national currency by 38.3 percent. The volume of loans to economic sectors for this period amounted to 8.2 billion TJS (1,680.3 million USD), increasing by 27.3 percent in comparison with the same period of 2013. The volume of repaid loans reached 6.6 billion TJS (1,352.5 million USD), which is 80.1 percent of the total issued credits for this period. The development of microcredit throughout the country, especially in remote mountainous regions, continues to be a priority. The country’s banking system is doing everything possible to implement this national priority. As of the end of September 2014, microloans totaled 4.1 billion TJS (840.2 million USD), increasing by 37 percent in comparison with the same period of 2013. Microloans of 839.3 million TJS (172 million USD) were made in remote high-altitude regions of the country, 25.7 percent more than in the same period of 2013.

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Total volume of credits and loans

*-data for 01.11.2014 For January-September 2014, foreign trade turnover amounted to 4,302.9 million USD, increasing by 12.8 percent compared to the same period of 2013. Goods exports amounted to 776.9 million USD. Imports amounted to 3,526 million USD. Negative balance of foreign trade turnover totaled 2,749.1 million USD.

6.2. Labor Migration of Population According to the Migration Service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment of the Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, in January-October 2014, a total of 736,992 persons left Tajikistan, 15.2 percent less than in the same period of 2013. 471,389 persons returned to the country. The reduction in labor migration as compared to 2013 is due to amendments in the existing Russian Federation legislation on the activities of labor migrants from foreign countries. The Monthly Labor Migration Outside of Tajikistan for 2009 - 2014 chart below provides a year-to-year summary of annual out-migration numbers from 2009 to 2014.

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The Total Labor Migration for 2009-2014 chart below indicates that the total level of labor migration in 2014 is below the level of labor migration in the same period of 2013.

6.3. Employment According to the Agency of Labor and Employment Department of the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment of the Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, 97,570 citizens applied to the Agency for help in the first ten months of 2014. Of this total, 62,407 individuals were registered as job seekers, and 43,756 individuals were recognized as officially unemployed. For the first ten months of this year, 34,071 people were provided with jobs with the assistance of the employment services, which is 34.9 percent of the total number of all citizens who applied. The main reasons for providing a limited number of people with jobs were that the majority of the unemployed did not have the necessary technical training or had lost skills due to prolonged unemployment, as well as the low level of wages offered by employers. During January-October 2014, unemployment benefits totaling 2,894 thousand TJS (578.8 thousand USD) were paid to 6,126 people. As of November 1, 2014, a total of 84,701 persons were registered with the Agency as looking for work, including 56,814 registered as unemployed and including those persons remaining from 2013. During the first ten months of 2014, 15,676 people were sent to vocational training, 4,091 people were provided with social-paid jobs, and 3,263 people were provided with soft loans to start their own businesses. According to the State Agency for Social Protection, Employment, and Migration of RT, during the first ten months of 2014, 194,538 new jobs were created, which is 5.9 percent more than in the same period of the previous year (183,634).

6.4. Exchange Rate The chart below shows both the official National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) exchange rate and unofficial (market) exchange rate monitored weekly by the UN WFP. The NBT rate for November 1, 2014, increased and was 5.01 TJS per one USD. The UN WFP reported an

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average market exchange rate of 5.15 TJS per one USD for the five main markets in Tajikistan on November 1, 2014. Exchange Rate of Tajik Somoni (TJS) against US Dollar, June 2007 – October 2014

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Annex A - Weather forecast for November 2014 Khatlon Province and Lower Elevations of Direct Rule Districts (DRD) The average monthly air temperature is expected to be within the norm and will be from 9 to 110С at lower elevations and 6 to 80С in the foothills. During November 1-2 and 7-10 a heat wave is expected at lower elevations, with temperatures from 4 to 90C at night, 22 to 270C in the afternoon. In the foothills, the temperature will be from 2 to 70C at night and 17 to 220C in the afternoon. On some days decrease in air temperature is expected: at lower elevations, 10-15°C in the afternoon, -1 + 40C at night; in the foothills, 6-110C in the afternoon, -2 to 30C at night. Other days, the temperature is expected to be: at lower elevations, 15 to 200C in the afternoon, 2 to 70C at night; in the foothills, 11 to 160C in the afternoon, 1 to 60C at night. Precipitation (rain, sleet) is most likely in the last half the month. Monthly precipitation is expected to be below the norm (norm: at lower elevations, 12 to 48 mm; in the foothills, 54 to 69 mm.) Western winds may to increase up to 12-17m/sec in the middle of the month. Sughd Province The monthly average temperature is expected to be 10C above the normal range and will be from 7 to 80С at lower elevations and 1 to 20С at higher elevations. During November 1 and 8-11, a heat wave is expected at lower elevations, with temperatures from 4 to 90C at night and 18 to 230C in the afternoon. In mountains, the temperature will be from 0 to 50C at night and 11 to 160C in the afternoon. On some days a decrease in temperature is expected at lower elevations, with temperatures from 5-100C in the afternoon and -2 to 3°C at night. In the mountains, the temperature will be 2 to 70C in the afternoon and -2 to -70C at night. In the remaining days the temperature is expected to be: at lower elevations, 12 to 170C in the afternoon, 0 to 50C at night; in the mountains, 7-120C in the afternoon, -3 to 20C at night. Precipitation (rain, sleet) is most likely to occur in the last half of the month. Monthly precipitation is expected to be below the norm (norm: at lower elevations 11 to 26mm; in mountains 9 to 18mm.) Winds may to increase up to 15-20m/sec.

Higher Elevations of DRD and Western Regions of GBAO The monthly average temperature is expected to be 1-20C above the normal range and will be 3 to 80C. During November 1 and 8-11, there will be a heat wave with temperatures from 1 to 60C at night and 14 to 190C in the afternoon. On other days, the temperature is expected to be from 10-15°C to 5-100C in the afternoon, and from -1 to 50C at night.

21 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - November 2014

Precipitation (snow) is most likely in the last half of the month. Monthly precipitation is expected to be below the norm (norm: In the Western regions of GBAO 5 to 33mm, in the mountainous regions of DRD 23 to 99mm.) Winds may to increase up to 12-17m/sec.

Eastern Regions of GBAO Monthly average temperature is expected to be 1-30C above the norm and will be from -4 to -70C. In the first five days of the month, the temperature will be -6 to -110C at night and 3 to 80C in the afternoon. Later in the month, the temperature is expected to fall from -12 to -170C at night and from 0 to -50C in the afternoon. At the end of the month the temperature is expected to fall from -17 to -220C at night. Monthly precipitation is expected to be less than the norm (norm: 1-6 mm.) Winds are expected to increase up to 10-15m/sec.

22 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - November 2014

The aim of the Tajikistan monthly Monitoring and Early Warning (MEW) Reports is to provide regular information and succinct analysis on the evolution of natural, economic, food, energy and other risk factors in Tajikistan. Data and information in this report are provided by different sources and compiled by Group of Experts of Government organizations and institutions of the MEW Center (MEWS) under the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (MEDT) of RT with the support of UNDP and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in Tajikistan. MEWS at MEDT was created in conjunction with the United Nations Development Program in Tajikistan in 2010. The members of the MEWS Working group include the following organizations and institutions: Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, RT Ministry of Industry and New Technologies, RT Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, RT Ministry of Labor, Migration and Employment of Population, RT Ministry of Health and Social protection of population, RT Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan Agency on statistics under President of RT Main Department of Geology under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan National Bank of Tajikistan Migration service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration and population employment of RT OJHC «Barqi Tojik» OJSC «Tajiktransgaz» Hydrometeorology Government institution Agency of Labor and Employment Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan The Monitoring and Early Warning Center at the MEDT is not responsible for the quality and accuracy of data provided by external sources or analysis based on these data.

Contact information:

Ministry of Economic Development and Trade Tajikistan 37 Bokhtar, 2nd floor, office #225, Dushanbe 734002 e-mail: [email protected] Tel. (992 37) 223-06-96

Report is available on the website:

http://www.medt.tj/en/index/index/pageId/791/

and

http://untj.org/coordination-mechanisms/disaster-management/monitoring-and-early-warning-system

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