Dissertation zur Erlangung des Grades des Doktors der Philosophie Dissertation for the Obtainment of the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Universität Hamburg Fachbereich Sozialwissenschaften Institut für Politikwissenschaft University of Hamburg Faculty of Social Sciences Institute for Political Science Socio-Political Change in Tajikistan The Development Process, its Challenges Since the Civil War and the Silence Before the New Storm? By Gunda Wiegmann Primary Reviewer: Prof. Rainer Tetzlaff Secondary Reviewer: Prof. Frank Bliss Date of Disputation: 15. July 2009 1 Abstract The aim of my study was to look at governance and the extent of its functions at the local level in a post-conflict state such as Tajikistan, where the state does not have full control over the governance process, particularly regarding the provision of public goods and services. What is the impact on the development process at the local level? My dependent variable was the slowed down and regionally very much varying development process at the local level. My independent variable were the modes of local governance that emerged as an answer to the deficiencies of the state in terms of providing public goods and services at the local level which led to a reduced role of the state (my intervening variable). Central theoretic concepts in my study were governance – the processes, mechanisms and actors involved in decision-making –, local government – the representation of the state at the local level –, local governance – the processes, mechanisms and actors involved in decision- making at the local level and institutions – the formal and informal rules of the game. In the course of my field research which I conducted in Tajikistan in the years 2003/2004 and in 2005 I found that the state does not provide public goods and services to the local population in a sufficient way. The research question which then emerged out of this insight concerned the players and mechanisms that filled the gaps left open by the state: who are the drivers and spoilers of the local development process and why do modes of governance at the local level more or less function, regardless of the fact that the state is only involved to a small extent? Coming back to my dependent variable I wanted to find out why modes of local governance varied so much from region to region. I found that a diverse set of factors lead to this outcome: 1) the geographic, economic and social set-up varies significantly from region to region (e.g. land distribution); 2) the respective Soviet and post-conflict legacies (whether a region was shaped by the influence of the government of rather by the influence of the opposition); 3) the extent to which external players (such as international organisations and NGOs) are involved in modes of local governance; and 4) the role of other players such as local big men, e.g. former warlords, who are still respected and shape decision-making processes at the local level. This leads to a constellation where in resource-rich regions the state expects the provincial elite to redistribute the wealth. This does not take place and the state also does not invest in these regions. Eventually, the situation of the population in the resource-rich regions (such as in the South-West) is the worst because on the provincial level rentier-state structures emerge and the local population is exploited. In resource-poor regions the modes of local governance are shaped by an alliance of local and international NGOs, international organisations and locally respected figures. In the short run, the local population in these areas is better off, but whether these structures will turn out to be sustainable remains to be seen. Coming back to the question of why governance functions nonetheless: even during Soviet times, governance was significantly shaped by informal rules of the game (institutions). With the breakdown of this political system, Soviet socialism and the civil war, the local rules of the game did not change significantly and informal institutions provided some kind of continuity and still very much shape decision-making processes on the local level. However, generally the local population is not satisfied with the quality and quantity of public goods that are provided. Resentment is growing and if the large extent of the male working population cannot continue to migrate to Russia for labour, the fronts might harden again and Tajikistan risks to fall back into the turmoil it experienced during the 1990s. 2 Table of Contents 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 8 1.1 The Development Process .......................................................................... 8 1.2 The Framework ........................................................................................... 9 1.3 Field Research and Gathering of Material................................................. 12 2. The Theoretical Background.......................................................................... 15 2.1 The Concept of Governance ..................................................................... 15 2.2 Governance in Areas of Limited Statehood............................................... 16 2.3 Good Governance ..................................................................................... 19 2.4 Local Governance ..................................................................................... 22 2.5 Local Government ..................................................................................... 24 2.6 The State................................................................................................... 24 2.7 The Weak-Strong State Debate ................................................................ 27 2.7.1 Separators in the Tajik Society_______________________________ 28 2.8 Statehood: What Makes a Functioning State ............................................ 29 2.8.1 Participation in Decision-Making Processes_____________________ 31 3. Chapter 1: The Status Quo of Tajikistan....................................................... 32 3.1 The Soviet Modernization Process............................................................ 32 3.2 The Provision of Public Goods during Soviet Times ................................. 33 3.3 Outsourcing of the Provision of Public Goods........................................... 33 3.4 The Economic Situation of Tajikistan Today ............................................. 35 3.5 The Human Rights Situation ..................................................................... 38 3.6 Activities of the Main Donor Organisations ............................................... 39 3.7 The Perception of the People.................................................................... 45 3.8 ‘A Poet is better than a Trader’.................................................................. 45 3.9 Political Culture and Political Will .............................................................. 46 3.9.1 NGOs Try to Stay out of Politics______________________________ 48 4. Chapter 2: Geopolitical and Socio-Economic Structure in Rural Areas .... 49 4.1 The Geographic and Socio-Economic Factors.......................................... 49 4.2 The Terrain and Conditions for Agriculture................................................ 50 4.3 Tajikistan’s Demography and Health Risks............................................... 50 4.4 The Ethnic Structure.................................................................................. 52 4.5 Food Security in Rural Parts of Tajikistan ................................................. 52 4.6 Poverty and the Rural-Urban Divide.......................................................... 53 4.7 Women’s Poverty and Increased Discrimination....................................... 54 4.8 Child Poverty ............................................................................................. 55 4.9 Linking Economy and Geopolitics with Development Prospects............... 56 4.10 Tajikistan’s Susceptibility to Natural Disasters .......................................... 56 3 4.11 The Bad Condition of Infrastructure and the Problem of Maintenance...... 58 4.12 Social Mobility ........................................................................................... 58 4.13 The Three Target Regions of this Study ................................................... 59 4.13.1 Mountain-Badakhshan _____________________________________ 59 4.13.2 Kulyab _________________________________________________ 62 4.13.3 Rasht Valley _____________________________________________ 65 5. Chapter 3: The Development Process: Legacies, Barriers and Potentials 68 5.1 Brief Outline of the Tajik Civil War............................................................. 68 5.2 Legacies from the Tajik Civil War.............................................................. 70 5.3 Political and Social Legacies from Soviet Times....................................... 73 5.4 Economic Legacies from the Soviet Period............................................... 75 5.5 Forced Resettlement and Changed Social Structure ................................ 76 5.6 The Regime and the Government Elite ..................................................... 77 5.7 Changing Alliances: With Russia or with the US?..................................... 78 5.8 The Role of Islam in Tajikistan Today ....................................................... 80 5.8.1 Religious Practice and Political