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Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning in Tajikistan MONTHLY REPORT JANUARY 2015 Publication of this report from August 2014 is made possible by the support of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and MEWS Working Group. The contents are the sole responsibility of the MEDT of RT and FAST Program, which do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - January 2015 1 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - January 2015 GENERAL TRENDS NATURAL HAZARDS In January 2015, according to long-term observations, there is a risk of an emergency caused by snowfall, frost and avalanches. WEATHER Temperatures in January will be 1-20C above the norm in Khatlon and Sughd Provinces and in lower elevations of DRD. Temperatures will be 2-30C above the long-term averages in GBAO and higher elevations of DRD. Monthly precipitation is expected to be less than normal throughout the country. ENERGY SECURITY Electricity generation in December increased by 11.7 percent compared to November 2014. The water level in the Nurek reservoir in December was 7.15 meters lower than in November 2014. From October 1, 2014, the supply of electricity was limited across districts due to the reduction of water flow from the Vakhsh River and the need to fill the Nurek reservoir for winter. FOOD SECURITY In January, regional food availability will remain good due to the local wheat harvest and imports from Kazakhstan. Wheat grain and wheat flour prices will remain stable in Tajikistan. HEALTH The risk of acute respiratory viral infections, including the flu, increases with the beginning of the cold season. MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES With the onset of cold weather and amendments in the existing Russian Federation legislation on the activities of labor migrants, seasonal migration has declined. In December the number of labor migrants decreased by 13.5 in comparison with November 2014. ECONOMY The GDP totaled 40,632.5 million TJS (8,273.5 million USD) for January-November 2014. Industrial production increased by 5.0 percent compared to the same period in 2013. Consumer price inflation was 6.8 percent compared to December 2013. The total balance of bank credits was 9.3 billion TJS (1,894.1 million USD) for eleven months of 2014. The volume of loans granted by banks amounted to 10.0 billion TJS (2,036.6 million USD). In January-November 2014, foreign trade turnover was equal to 4,854.2 million USD, 7.5 percent more than in the same period in 2013. Exports totaled 888.6 million USD, and imports totaled 3,965.6 million USD. 2 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - January 2015 Contents 1. NATURAL HAZARDS .................................................................................................................. 4 1.1. Possible natural disasters in January 2015 ......................................................................... 4 1.2 Natural disasters in December 2014 ......................................................................................... 4 2. WEATHER CONDITIONS ........................................................................................................... 5 2.1. Forecast for January 2015 ................................................................................................... 5 2.2. Weather summary for December 2014. ............................................................................... 5 3. ENERGY ...................................................................................................................................... 6 3.1. Electricity Generation ........................................................................................................... 6 3.2. Natural and liquefied gas ..................................................................................................... 7 3.3. Coal ...................................................................................................................................... 7 3.4. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant ........................................................................ 7 4. FOOD SECURITY ....................................................................................................................... 9 4.1. Food Security Reports ......................................................................................................... 9 4.2. Wheat Flour Prices .............................................................................................................. 9 4.3. Fuel Prices ......................................................................................................................... 10 5. HEALTH ..................................................................................................................................... 12 6. ECONOMIC TRENDS ............................................................................................................... 13 6.1. General Trends .................................................................................................................. 13 6.2. Labor Migration of Population ............................................................................................ 15 6.3. Employment ....................................................................................................................... 16 6.4. Exchange Rate .................................................................................................................. 17 Annex A - Weather forecast for January 2015 ................................................................................. 18 3 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - January 2015 1. NATURAL HAZARDS 1.1. Possible natural disasters in January 2015 According to the Information Management and Analytical Center (IMAC) of the Committee on Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan (CoES and CD), and according to long-term observations, there is a risk of an emergency caused by snowfall, frost and avalanches in January 2015. Table 1. Historical data on Natural disasters in January 2000-2014 Causes of Natural disasters Total 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Earthquake 2 1 2 3 1 2 4 5 2 2 24 Landslide, rockfall 2 2 Avalanche 1 1 3 1 6 Snowfall, frost 3 9 1 13 Total 1 3 14 1 2 3 2 2 4 5 5 3 45 1.2 Natural disasters in December 2014 IMAC/CoES reported that in December 2014, there were 3 cases of natural disasters, including destruction of a bank canal, one case-because of the collapse on the highway and heavy snowfall and fog on the highway: On December 2, there was destruction of canal banks and water discharge from the river as a result of the canal clogging in the Balkhak village of Shahrinav district. There were no casualties or damage; 4 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - January 2015 On December 25 at 20:10, due to snowfall and fog, a car with «Tekamobail» company’s employees was trapped on the highway in the territory of Roghun district. At 23:50 the car and passengers were found and delivered to Obigarm. There were no casualties; From December 26 at 11:30 until December 28 at 17:15, road traffic on the highway in Saripul-Navobod in Rasht district was blocked as a result of the landslide. For more detailed and recent information on the review of natural disasters in December 2014 contact the MEWS Center Working Group at: [email protected]. 2. WEATHER CONDITIONS1 2.1. Forecast for January 2015 According to the Tajik Hydrometeorology Center, Table 2. The average expected precipitation the average monthly temperature in January 2015 – January 2015 will be: Regions Precipitation Lower 0 Khatlon 43-82 mm 1-2 C above the climatic norm in Khatlon and elevations Province Sughd Provinces and lower elevations of the Foothills 86-102 mm Lower Direct Ruled Districts (DRD); 10-39 mm Sughd elevations 0 2-3 C above the long term average in the Gorno- Province Higher 9-18 mm Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) and elevations Lower 43-82 mm the higher elevations of DRD. elevations DRD Higher 39-150 mm Monthly precipitation is expected to be less than elevations West 20-56 mm GBAO the norm throughout the country (See Annex A for East 5-20 mm a more detailed forecast for January 2015.) 2.2. Weather summary for December 2014. In December, the average monthly temperature at lower elevations was within the norm; in mountainous and foothills areas, 1-20C below the norm; and in GBAO, 2-40C above the norm. The temperature was: at lower elevations and in the foothills, from 0°C to 6°C; at higher elevations, from -1°C to -6°C (in Darvoz 2°C); at higher elevations of GBAO, from-12°C to -17°C. Warm weather was observed during December 1-2, 15-17 and 27-31, when the daily temperature in the lower elevations of Khatlon province and DRD increased to 13-18 0С. 1 Information in Sections 2.1, 2.2 and Annex A is based on the reports of the State Hydrometeorology Agency of Tajikistan. 5 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - January 2015 The lowest air temperatures were observed during December 3-4, 8-9, 18, when the temperature in the lower elevations of Khatlon province and DRD fell from 6 to 90C in the afternoon and from 0 to -50C at night. Cold weather was observed during the first half of the month in Sughd province, when the temperature did not rise above -1 + 40C. At night the temperature dropped to -60C -110C. The average Table 3.
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