Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of

Monitoring and Early Warning in

Tajikistan

MONTHLY REPORT JANUARY 2015

Publication of this report from August 2014 is made possible by the support of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and MEWS Working Group. The contents are the sole responsibility of the MEDT of RT and FAST Program, which do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - January 2015

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Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - January 2015

GENERAL TRENDS NATURAL HAZARDS In January 2015, according to long-term observations, there is a risk of an emergency caused by snowfall, frost and avalanches. WEATHER Temperatures in January will be 1-20C above the norm in Khatlon and Sughd Provinces and in lower elevations of DRD. Temperatures will be 2-30C above the long-term averages in GBAO and higher elevations of DRD. Monthly precipitation is expected to be less than normal throughout the country. ENERGY SECURITY

Electricity generation in December increased by 11.7 percent compared to November 2014. The water level in the Nurek reservoir in December was 7.15 meters lower than in November 2014. From October 1, 2014, the supply of electricity was limited across districts due to the reduction of water flow from the Vakhsh River and the need to fill the Nurek reservoir for winter. FOOD SECURITY In January, regional food availability will remain good due to the local wheat harvest and imports from Kazakhstan. Wheat grain and wheat flour prices will remain stable in Tajikistan. HEALTH The risk of acute respiratory viral infections, including the flu, increases with the beginning of the cold season. MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES With the onset of cold weather and amendments in the existing Russian Federation legislation on the activities of labor migrants, seasonal migration has declined. In December the number of labor migrants decreased by 13.5 in comparison with November 2014. ECONOMY The GDP totaled 40,632.5 million TJS (8,273.5 million USD) for January-November 2014. Industrial production increased by 5.0 percent compared to the same period in 2013. Consumer price inflation was 6.8 percent compared to December 2013. The total balance of bank credits was 9.3 billion TJS (1,894.1 million USD) for eleven months of 2014. The volume of loans granted by banks amounted to 10.0 billion TJS (2,036.6 million USD). In January-November 2014, foreign trade turnover was equal to 4,854.2 million USD, 7.5 percent more than in the same period in 2013. Exports totaled 888.6 million USD, and imports totaled 3,965.6 million USD.

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Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - January 2015

Contents 1. NATURAL HAZARDS ...... 4 1.1. Possible natural disasters in January 2015 ...... 4 1.2 Natural disasters in December 2014 ...... 4 2. WEATHER CONDITIONS ...... 5 2.1. Forecast for January 2015 ...... 5 2.2. Weather summary for December 2014...... 5 3. ENERGY ...... 6 3.1. Electricity Generation ...... 6 3.2. Natural and liquefied gas ...... 7 3.3. Coal ...... 7 3.4. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant ...... 7 4. FOOD SECURITY ...... 9 4.1. Food Security Reports ...... 9 4.2. Wheat Flour Prices ...... 9 4.3. Fuel Prices ...... 10 5. HEALTH ...... 12 6. ECONOMIC TRENDS ...... 13 6.1. General Trends ...... 13 6.2. Labor Migration of Population ...... 15 6.3. Employment ...... 16 6.4. Exchange Rate ...... 17 Annex A - Weather forecast for January 2015 ...... 18

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1. NATURAL HAZARDS

1.1. Possible natural disasters in January 2015 According to the Information Management and Analytical Center (IMAC) of the Committee on Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan (CoES and CD), and according to long-term observations, there is a risk of an emergency caused by snowfall, frost and avalanches in January 2015.

Table 1. Historical data on Natural disasters in January

2000-2014

Causes of Natural disasters Total

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Earthquake 2 1 2 3 1 2 4 5 2 2 24

Landslide, rockfall 2 2

Avalanche 1 1 3 1 6

Snowfall, frost 3 9 1 13

Total 1 3 14 1 2 3 2 2 4 5 5 3 45

1.2 Natural disasters in December 2014 IMAC/CoES reported that in December 2014, there were 3 cases of natural disasters, including destruction of a bank canal, one case-because of the collapse on the highway and heavy snowfall and fog on the highway: On December 2, there was destruction of canal banks and water discharge from the river as a result of the canal clogging in the Balkhak village of district. There were no casualties or damage;

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On December 25 at 20:10, due to snowfall and fog, a car with «Tekamobail» company’s employees was trapped on the highway in the territory of district. At 23:50 the car and passengers were found and delivered to . There were no casualties; From December 26 at 11:30 until December 28 at 17:15, road traffic on the highway in Saripul-Navobod in was blocked as a result of the landslide. For more detailed and recent information on the review of natural disasters in December 2014 contact the MEWS Center Working Group at: [email protected].

2. WEATHER CONDITIONS1 2.1. Forecast for January 2015

According to the Tajik Hydrometeorology Center, Table 2. The average expected precipitation the average monthly temperature in January 2015 – January 2015 will be: Regions Precipitation Lower 0 Khatlon 43-82 mm 1-2 C above the climatic norm in Khatlon and elevations Province Sughd Provinces and lower elevations of the Foothills 86-102 mm Lower Direct Ruled Districts (DRD); 10-39 mm Sughd elevations 0 2-3 C above the long term average in the Gorno- Province Higher 9-18 mm Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) and elevations Lower 43-82 mm the higher elevations of DRD. elevations DRD Higher 39-150 mm Monthly precipitation is expected to be less than elevations West 20-56 mm GBAO the norm throughout the country (See Annex A for East 5-20 mm a more detailed forecast for January 2015.)

2.2. Weather summary for December 2014. In December, the average monthly temperature at lower elevations was within the norm; in mountainous and foothills areas, 1-20C below the norm; and in GBAO, 2-40C above the norm. The temperature was: at lower elevations and in the foothills, from 0°C to 6°C; at higher elevations, from -1°C to -6°C (in Darvoz 2°C); at higher elevations of GBAO, from-12°C to -17°C. Warm weather was observed during December 1-2, 15-17 and 27-31, when the daily temperature in the lower elevations of Khatlon province and DRD increased to 13-18 0С.

1 Information in Sections 2.1, 2.2 and Annex A is based on the reports of the State Hydrometeorology Agency of Tajikistan.

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The lowest air temperatures were observed during December 3-4, 8-9, 18, when the temperature in the lower elevations of Khatlon province and DRD fell from 6 to 90C in the afternoon and from 0 to -50C at night. Cold weather was observed during the first half of the month in Sughd province, when the temperature did not rise above -1 + 40C. At night the temperature dropped to -60C -110C. The average Table 3. Monthly Precipitation daily temperature was 1-50C below the long-term Regions Less than averages. norm % 26-130% Monthly precipitation mostly was below the norm, but Sughd Province 52-112% in some areas was within the norm (see Table 3.) Khatlon Province 68-119% DRD 36-120% Western GBAO 26% Eastern GBAO

3. ENERGY 3.1. Electricity Generation2 According to the information of OJHC “Barqi Tojik,” total electricity generation in December 2014 was 1,427 million kilowatt-hours (kW/h), or 46.0 million kW/h per day. Electricity generation in December increased by 11.7 percent (41.2 million kW/h) compared to November 2014. Electricity generation in December 2014 was 8.4 million kW/h less than in the same period of the last year (see Section 3.5 below). For more detailed information on electricity generation contact the MEWS Center at [email protected]. Total Electricity Generation – January 2011 – December 2014 (million kW/h)

2 Data on electricity generation and consumption is provided by the Monitoring and Early Warning System (MEWS) Expert from Barqi Tojik.

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3.2. Natural and liquefied gas The supply of natural gas to the Republic of Tajikistan was suspended in connection with completion of the contract with the Republic of in December 2012. Tajikistan receives deliveries of liquefied gas by road and rail. According to the operational data of the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan, enterprises registered with the Ministry imported 225,164 tons of liquefied gas from January to December 2014, mostly from the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Republic of Turkmenistan and the Russian Federation. Imports amounted to 11,472 tons more than during the same period of 2013. In December 2014 liquefied gas imports totaled 20,261 tons, which is 1,214 tons less than in December of the previous year. More than 50 percent of the country's motor vehicles use liquefied gas as fuel. According to the information published on the «Asia Plus» website of Media Group, "Faroz" Company, the main supplier of liquefied natural gas to Tajikistan, intends to reduce the retail price of this type of fuel by 0.7 TJS (about $ 0.13.) For more detailed information please visit: http://news.tj/ru/news/faroz-reshila-snizit-stoimost-szhizhennogo-gaza-v-tadzhikistane

3.3. Coal According to the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of RT, 70,007.4 tons of coal were produced in December 2014, which is 46,323 tons less than in November 2014. From January-December 2014, 878,131 tons of coal were produced in Tajikistan—356,693 tons or 168.4 percent more than in the same period of the previous year. Coal production has increased due to the commissioning of the first unit of the “-2” thermal power plant and a shift in the country’s industrial enterprises from more expensive natural gas and electricity to more economical coal for heating and other needs (e.g., for processing coal into gas for TALCO activities).

3.4. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant3 The Water Volume – Nurek HPP chart below shows the volume of water in the Nurek Hydropower Plant (HPP) reservoir at the end of December 2014 compared to the average volume over the last nine years (2004 to 2013). At the end of December 2014, the water level in the Nurek HPP reservoir was 897.14 meters above sea level, which is 7.15 meters lower than in November 2014, 2.22 meters higher than in the same period of the previous year, and 40.14 meters above the “dead level” (inactive storage) (857 meters). In December 2014, average monthly inflow from the Vakhsh River was 210 m3/sec, 5.4 percent less compared to the same period of the last year.

3 Data obtained from OJHC “Barqi Tojik”

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Water Volume – Nurek HPP (million m3)

The Water Inflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir chart below shows water inflow into the Nurek HPP. At the end of December 2014, the water inflow was 217 m3/sec, which is 13.4 m3/sec above the average of 203.6 m3/sec for 2004-2013. Water Inflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir (m3/sec)

As indicated in the Water Outflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir chart below, the average water discharge from the Nurek HPP reservoir at the end of December 2014 amounted to 472 m3/sec, which is lower than the 9-year-old average of 570.5 m3/sec. Water Outflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir (m3/sec)

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4. FOOD SECURITY

4.1. Food Security Reports According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of RT, the most important imported food products are grain and flour. During January-November 2014, 686.1 thousand tons of grain at an average price of 299 USD per ton and 170.9 thousand tons of flour at an average price of 411 USD per ton were imported into the Republic, which is 12 percent more grain and 18.3 percent less flour compared to the same period of the previous year. In December 2014 the prices of wheat flour remained stable in the country’s markets. As of January 2, 2015, the average price of one 50-kilogram bag of domestically-produced first grade flour is 154.5 TJS (29.2 USD). The price of first grade flour produced in Kazakhstan is 159.12 TJS (30.0 USD.) In January-November 2014, the average price of imported oil products was 877 USD per ton, a decrease of 16.4 percent compared to January-November of the previous year. During this period 516.3 thousand tons of oil products were imported into the Republic, 190.5 thousand tons more than in the last year. Those imports included 219.2 thousand tons of diesel fuel imported at an average price of 857 USD per ton and 219.8 thousand tons of gasoline at an average price of 793 USD per ton. For more detailed information please contact the MEWS Working Group at: [email protected]. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan, this year cereals were sown on 309,738 hectares (ha) of land. As of January 1, 2015, the grain harvest was 899,112 thousand tons (17.241 thousand tons less than for the same period of the previous year). The average yield per hectare was 2.62 tons, 0.05 tons more than in the same period of the previous year. Wheat was sown on 214.881 hectares (ha) of land. The wheat harvest was 624.903 tons, 26.698 tons less than for the same period of the previous year. The average yield per hectare was 2.93 tons, 0.04 tons more than in the same period of the previous year. For more detailed information please contact the MEWS Working Group at: [email protected].

4.2. Wheat Flour Prices4

First Grade Wheat Flour The chart below shows prices for first grade wheat flour in Dushanbe, Khujand, and Kurgan-Tyube markets from January 2008 to the end of December 2014. In December 2014 a decline in wheat flour prices was observed in Dushanbe, and prices remained the same in Khujand and Kurgan-Tyube markets in comparison with November.

4 Food and fuel prices are from UN WFP Food Security Weekly Market Monitoring, Tajikistan http://untj.org/country_context/coordination_mechanisms/agriculture&food_security/fsms/

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First Grade Wheat Flour Prices in three main markets for January 2008 – December 2014 (TJS/kg)

The chart below provides prices for first grade wheat flour in two large regional markets in and Khorog and the average prices for Dushanbe, Khujand and Kurgan-Tyube. In December 2014, wheat flour prices remained unchanged in Khorog and Gharm in comparison with November. First Grade Wheat Flour Prices in Gharm, Khorog, and the average in three main markets for January 2008 – December 2014 (TJS/kg)

4.3. Fuel Prices In December 2014 a decline in gasoline and diesel fuel prices was observed in Dushanbe, and Khujand markets. Prices remained unchanged in Kurgan-Tyube markets in comparison with November.

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Petrol Prices in three main markets for January 2008 – December 2014 (TJS/liter)

Diesel Prices in three main markets for January 2008 – December 2014 (TJS/liter)

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5. HEALTH

According to the Ministry of Health and Social Protection of the Population of RT, as of December 31, 2014, the epidemiological situation and trends on major notifiable infectious diseases are relatively good. Compared to the same period of 2013, there is: . a comparative decline in the number of cases of intestinal infections and water-borne diseases, including acute intestinal infections; . a comparative reduction in Table 4. Statistical data on the epidemiological situation for January- the number of cases of December 2014 in comparison with the same period of the last year Typhoid fever; Change # Name of disease 2013 2014 . a reduction in the number (-), (+) of viral hepatitis cases; 1 Typhoid Fever 161 87 -74 2 Acute intestinal . a reduction in the number 58112 48053 -10059 infections of cases of acute respiratory viral infections; 3 Dysentery 1198 1036 -162 4 Brucellosis 840 923 +83 . a comparative increase in 5 Pertussis 2 5 +3 the number of cases of Brucellosis; 6 Anthrax 32 33 +1 7 Bites and Saliva Contact 14134 14322 +188 . a comparative increase in 8 Crimean-Congo the number of cases of hemorrhagic fever 5 15 +10 Pertussis; (CCHF) . a comparative increase in 9 Tuberculosis 4492 4147 -345 10 Acute respiratory the number of cases of 236223 226421 -9802 infections Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF); 11 Flu 14626 4351 -10275 . a comparative increase in registration of bites by wild and domestic animals; . a comparative increase in the number of cases of Anthrax. With the beginning of the cold season, the risk of acute respiratory viral infections— including the flu—increases. For other infectious diseases the epidemiological situation is assessed as auspicious.

Table 5. Expected risks in January 2015 and recommended appropriate measures Expected risks Recommended appropriate measures The risk of rising incidence of acute Avoid close contact with people who have fever respiratory viral infections remains high due and cough. to the onset of cold weather. Avoid crowded places or reduce time spent in crowded places. Practice proper hygiene - wash hands frequently with soap and water or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer, especially when touching mouth and

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nose. Increase the flow of fresh air into the home, and open windows as often as possible (ventilate). Use a protective mask when in contact with a sick person. Maintain a healthy lifestyle: good sleep, balanced nutrition, physical activity, regular walks, fresh air and exercise. An outbreak of food poisoning (botulism.) Maintain proper storage and transportation conditions of perishable foods. Be attentive to homemade canned food and follow specialists’ recommendations for proper use. Examination of the data of last 4-5 years Strengthen control over stray animals. If necessary, show that in the period from January to take measures for the capture and isolation of stray March, an increase in the number of treated dogs. Vaccinate domestic animals. Immediately go bites from stray dogs is observed. It is to the nearest hospital in the event of an animal connected with the dogs’ mating season. bite.

6. ECONOMIC TRENDS

6.1. General Trends National economic development remained stable and economic growth continued to increase over the past eleven months of the current year. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Republic increased by 6.6 percent compared to the same period of 2013 and amounted to 40,632.5 million TJS (8,273.5 million USD). The growth rate of GDP compared to the corresponding period of 2013 decreased by 0.7 percent. The deflator index of prices totaled 106.3 percent. GDP per capita increased from the same period of 2013 by 436.7 TJS (88.9 USD), or 9.9 percent, and totaled 4,860.5 TJS (989.7 USD). The gross domestic product of the Republic during this period was mainly due to the development of industries at 105%, agriculture-103.3%, investments in fixed capital- 130.5%, freight transport-102.8%, retail trade-105.8% and paid services-101.3%. During the first eleven months of 2014, industrial enterprises produced goods worth 9,241.6 million TJS (1,881.8 million USD), 5.0 percent more than in the same period of 2013. Growth in industrial production in January-November of 2014, compared with the same period of 2013, is due to the significant growth in: mining industries – 25.3 percent, manufacturing – 0.9 percent, and the production and distribution of electricity, gas, and water – 6.2 percent. The mining industry’s share of industrial output was 13.9 percent, the manufacturing sector’s share (food, textile, petrochemical, and metallurgical industries) was 65.2 percent, and the share of the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water supply, 20.9 percent. The volume of gross agricultural output (in all types of farms) in January-November of 2014 increased by 3.3 percent compared to the same period of last year. 94.0 percent of

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agricultural output is in the private sector. Gross agricultural product in the reporting period amounted to 18,955.9 million TJS (3,859.7 million USD), including crop production—13,664.3 million TJS (2,782.3 million USD), or 1.9 percent more, and livestock—5,291.6 million TJS (1,077.4 million USD), or 6.8 percent more. In the first eleven months of 2014, investments in fixed capital from all sources of finance amounted to 6,330.0 million TJS or 1,288.9 million USD, 30.5 percent more than in the same period of the previous year. From January to November 2014 3,158.2 million TJS (643.1 million USD) (or 49.9 percent) were invested in production facilities. 3,171.8 million TJS (645.8 million USD), or 50.1 percent of total investment in the country, were invested in non-production facilities. Most investments, 44.1 percent, were made in the public sector. The private sector accounted for 28.6 percent, joint ventures accounted for 7.1 percent, and foreign ownership accounted for 20.2 percent. 1079.0 million TJS (219.7 million USD) were invested in the construction of energy facilities, 28 percent more compared with the same period of the previous year. For the first eleven months of the current year, the inflation rate in the consumer sector amounted to 6.8 percent in comparison with December 2013. The main contributors to inflation were food products—8.7 percent, paid services—6.6 percent, and non-food products—3.1 percent. According to the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tajikistan, the total State budget amounted to 11,779.2 million TJS (2,398.5 million USD) in the first eleven months of 2014, or 29 percent of GDP. The total volume of credit balances as of January 1, 2015, (data for November 2014) has amounted to 9.3 billion TJS (1,894.1 million USD). Compared with the same time of the previous year, it has increased by 25.8 percent. The positive trend of lending is due mainly to increasing balances of loans in national currency by 25.5 percent. The volume of loans to economic sectors for this period amounted to 10.0 billion TJS (2,036.6 million USD), increasing by 26.6 percent in comparison with the same period of 2013. The volume of repaid loans reached 8.2 billion TJS (1,670.1 million USD), which is 81.7 percent of the total issued credits for this period. Foreign trade accounted for 24.1% of total loans, industry - 11.3%, agricultural sector - 12.7%, consumption - 15.7%, construction - 17.2%, financial intermediation - 1.2% and other sectors - 7.9%. At the same time, the development of credit investments for business activities in the country remains the primary priority of monetary policy. From the total volume of loans granted by the banking system 45.7% were sent to national entrepreneurs. The development of microcredit throughout the country, especially in remote mountainous regions, continues to be a priority and important part of the country’s banking system. The country’s banking system is doing everything possible to implement this national priority. At the end of November 2014, microloans totaled 4.3 billion TJS

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(875.8 million USD), increasing by 39.1 percent in comparison with the same period of 2013. In distant high elevations of the country microloans of 1.0 billion TJS (203.7 million USD) were made, 27.4 percent more than in the same period of 2013.

Total volume of credits and loans

*-data for 01.01.2015

From January-November 2014, foreign trade turnover amounted to 4,854.2 million USD. Compared with the same period of 2013, it increased by 7.5 percent. Goods exports amounted to 888.6 million USD. Imports amounted to 3,965.6 million USD. Negative balance of foreign trade turnover totaled 3,077.0 million USD.

6.2. Labor Migration of Population According to the Migration Service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment of the Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, in January-December 2014 a total of 834,058 persons left Tajikistan, 13.5 percent less than in the same period of 2013. 606,527 persons returned to the country. The reduction in labor migration is due to the cold weather, new regulations for entrance into the Russian Federation on International Passports from January 1, 2015, and amendments in the existing Russian Federation legislation on the activities of labor migrants from foreign countries. According to the information published on the "Asia Plus" website of Media Group, migratory flow to Russia will drop by 70% in 2015 in comparison with 2014. For more detailed information, please visit: http://asiaplus.tj/ru/news/v-fms-soobshchili-o- snizhenii-migratsionnogo-potoka-v-rossiyu-v-2015-godu-na-70

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The Monthly Labor Migration Outside of Tajikistan for 2009 - 2014 chart below provides a year-to-year summary of annual out-migration numbers from 2009 to 2014.

The Total Labor Migration for 2009-2014 chart below indicates that the total level of labor migration in 2014 is below the level of labor migration in the same period of 2013.

6.3. Employment According to the Agency of Labor and Employment Department of the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment of the Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, 112,634 citizens applied to the Agency for help in 2014. Of this number, 72,409 individuals were registered as job seekers, and 51,248 individuals were recognized as officially unemployed. For twelve months of this year, 38,911 people were provided with jobs with the assistance of the employment services, which is 34.5 percent of the total number of all citizens who applied. The main reasons for providing a limited number of people with jobs were that the majority of the unemployed did not have the necessary technical training or had lost skills due to prolonged unemployment, as well as the low level of wages offered by employers.

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During January-December 2014, unemployment benefits totaling 3,890 thousand TJS (792.3 thousand USD) were paid to 8,465 people. As of January 1, 2015, a total of 83,891 persons were registered with the Agency as looking for work, including 55,502 registered as unemployed and including those persons remaining from 2014. During 2014, 18,226 people were sent to vocational training, 4,685 people were provided with social-paid jobs, and 3,751 people were provided with soft loans to start their own businesses. According to the State Agency for Social Protection, Employment, and Migration of RT, during 2014, 251,570 new jobs were created, which is 22.5 percent more than in the same period of the previous year (205,333).

6.4. Exchange Rate The chart below shows both the official National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) exchange rate and unofficial (market) exchange rate monitored weekly by the UN WFP. The NBT rate for December 31, 2014, increased and was 5.3079 TJS per one USD. The UN WFP reported an average market exchange rate of 5.45 TJS per one USD for the five main markets in Tajikistan on December 31, 2014. Exchange Rate of Tajik Somoni (TJS) against US Dollar, June 2008 – December 2014

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Annex A - Weather forecast for January 2015 Khatlon Province and Lower Elevations of Direct Ruled Districts (DRD) The average monthly air temperature is expected to be 1-20С above the norm and will be 2 to 30С at lower elevations and -1 to -30С in the foothills. The warmest weather is expected in the first five days and part of the month when the temperature in the afternoon may rise up to 12-170C at lower elevations and up to 7-120C in the foothills. Other days the temperature may be from 0-50C to 5-100C at lower elevations and from 0- 50C to -3-20С in the foothills. The temperature fluctuation is expected to be 0-50C to 0-50C at lower elevations and foothills at night. The temperature is expected to drop to -5-100C on some days. Monthly precipitation is expected to be less than normal (norm: 43-82 mm, 28-46mm on South, 86-102 mm in the foothills). On some days, winds may to increase up to 12-17 m/sec. Fog can also be expected.

Sughd Province The monthly average temperature is expected to be 1-20C above the normal range. The temperature will be from -1 to 10С at lower elevations and foothills and from -1 to -60С at higher elevations. The temperature is expected to be 0-50С at lower elevations in the afternoon. The temperature may decrease to -2 to 30C. Temperature fluctuation is expected with temperatures from 0 -50C to -3-80C at night. At higher elevations, the temperature fluctuation is expected to be from 0-+50C to -50C in the afternoon and from - 3-80C to -8-130C at night. The warmest weather is expected at the end of the month at lower elevations when the temperature may rise up to 6-110C in the afternoon and up to - 1-40С at night.

Monthly precipitation is expected to be below the norm (norm: at lower elevations and foothills 10 to 39 mm; in the mountains, 9 to 18 mm.) On some days, wind may to increase up to 17-22 m/sec. Fog can also be expected.

Higher Elevations of DRD and Western Regions of GBAO The monthly average temperature is expected to be 2-30C above the norm and will be from 0 to -50C. Temperature variation is expected to be: from 0 to 50C to 0 to -50C in the afternoon, from -1 to 60C to -4 to 90C at night, and in some places from -10 to -150C . Monthly precipitation is expected to be below the norm (norm: in the Western regions of GBAO is 20 to 56mm, in DRD – 39 to 150mm). On some days, winds may to increase up to 12-17 m/sec. Fog can also be expected.

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Eastern Regions of GBAO Monthly average temperature is expected to be 2-30C above the climatic norm and will be from -10 to -150C. Sharp fluctuation in temperature is expected from -13 -180C to -19 - 240C at night. In some places the temperature may drop from -27 to -320C, and from -4 to -90C to -7 to -120C in the afternoon. Monthly precipitation is expected to be above the norm (norm: 5-20 mm.)

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The aim of the Tajikistan monthly Monitoring and Early Warning (MEW) Reports is to provide regular information and succinct analysis on the evolution of natural, economic, food, energy and other risk factors in Tajikistan. Data and information in this report are provided by different sources and compiled by Group of Experts of Government organizations and institutions of the MEW Center (MEWS) under the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (MEDT) of RT with the support of UNDP and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in Tajikistan. MEWS at MEDT was created in conjunction with the United Nations Development Program in Tajikistan in 2010. The members of the MEWS Working group include the following organizations and institutions: Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, RT Ministry of Industry and New Technologies, RT Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, RT Ministry of Labor, Migration and Employment of Population, RT Ministry of Health and Social protection of population, RT Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan Agency on statistics under President of RT Main Department of Geology under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan National Bank of Tajikistan Migration service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration and population employment of RT OJHC «Barqi Tojik» OJSC «Tajiktransgaz» Hydrometeorology Government institution Agency of Labor and Employment Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan The Monitoring and Early Warning Center at the MERT is not responsible for the quality and accuracy of data provided by external sources or analysis based on these data.

Contact information:

Ministry of Economic Development and Trade

Tajikistan 37 Bokhtar, 2nd floor, office #225, Dushanbe 734002 e-mail: [email protected] Tel. (992 37) 223-06-96

Report is available on the website: http://www.medt.tj/en/index/index/pageId/791/ and http://untj.org/coordination-mechanisms/disaster-management/monitoring-and-early-warning-system

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