Document of The World Bank
Public Disclosure Authorized FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Report No: 61114-TJ
PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT
ON A
PROPOSED GRANT
Public Disclosure Authorized IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 2.1 MILLION (US$ 3.2 MILLION EQUIVALENT)
TO THE
REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN
FOR A
SOCIAL SAFETY NET STRENGTHENING PROJECT
Public Disclosure Authorized MAY 17, 2011
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
Public Disclosure Authorized
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective May 12, 2011)
Currency Unit = Tajikistan Somoni 4.45 TJS = USD 1 6.40 TJS = Euro 1 7.20 TJS = SDR 1 FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADB Asian Development Bank ASP Agency for Social Protection CAO Central Accounting Office CCT Conditional Cash Transfer CPS Country Partnership Strategy ECA Europe and Central Asia Region EOP Executive Office of the President EU European Union GDP Gross Domestic Product GoT Government of Tajikistan IDA International Development Association IFR Interim Financial Report M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MoF Ministry of Finance MLSP Ministry of Labor and Social Protection NA Not applicable NRSP National Registry for Social Protection ORAF Operational Risk Assessment Framework OP Operational Policy PCG Project Coordination Group PCGD Director of the Project Coordination Group PDI Project Development Indicator PDO Project Development Objective POM Project Operations Manual PMT Proxy means-testing RSR Rapid Social Response Multi-donor Trust Fund SOE Statement of Expenses TC Technical Coordinator TJS Tajikistan Somoni TLSS Tajikistan Living Standards Survey TWG Technical Working Group USD United States Dollar WA Withdrawal application
Vice President: Philippe Le Houérou Country Director: Motoo Konishi Country Manager: Marsha Olive `Acting Sector Director: Mamta Murthi Sector Manager: Kathy A. Lindert Task Team Leader: Menahem Prywes
ii
Table of Contents I. Strategic Context ...... 1 A. Country Context ...... 1 B. Sectoral and Institutional Context ...... 2 C. Higher Level Objectives to which the Project Contributes and Rationale for World Bank Engagement ...... 5 II. Project Development Objectives ...... 5 A. PDO ...... 5 1. Project Beneficiaries ...... 5 2. PDO Level Results Indicators ...... 6 III. Project Description ...... 6 A. Project components ...... 6 B. Project Financing ...... 8 1. Lending Instrument ...... 8 2. Project Cost and Financing ...... 9 C. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design ...... 9 IV. Implementation ...... 10 A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements ...... 10 B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation ...... 10 C. Sustainability ...... 11 V. Key Risks and Mitigation Measures ...... 11 VI. Appraisal Summary ...... 12 A. Economic and Financial Analysis ...... 12 B. Technical ...... 12 C. Financial Management ...... 12 D. Procurement ...... 13 E. Social (including safeguards) ...... 13 F. Environment ...... 14 Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitor ...... 15 Annex 2: Detailed Project Description ...... 17 Annex 3: Implementation Arrangements ...... 30 Annex 4 Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF) ...... 41 Annex 5: Implementation Support Plan ...... 44 Annex 6: Team Composition ...... 46 MAP ...... 47
iii
Republic of Tajikistan Social Safety Net Strengthening Project
PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT
Europe and Central Asia Region ECSH3
Date: May 17, 2011 Risk Rating: Medium-I Country Director: Motoo Konishi Sectors: Social Protecti on (other social services) 100% Sector Manager: Kathy Lindert Themes: Social Safety Nets (100%) Project ID: P122039 EA Category: C Lending Instrument: SIL Team Leader: Menahem Prywes Project Financing Data: terms: [ ] Loan [ ] Credit [ X] Grant [ ] Guarantee [ ] Other: Source Total Amount (US$M) Total Project Cost: 3.2 Cofinancing:
Borrower: Total Bank Financing: 3.2 IBRD IDA 3.2
Borrower: Republic of Tajikistan Responsible Agency: Executive Office of the President, Project Coordination Group; the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection would carry out all social protection activities. Contact Person: Mr. Tojiddin Jurazoda, Director of the Project Coordination Group Tel/Fax: (992-37) 221-73-61 Email: [email protected]
Estimated Disbursements (Bank FY/US$ m) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Annual 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 Cumulative 0.8 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.2
Project Implementation Period: September 1, 2011 to August 31, 2015. Expected effectiveness date: September 1, 2011 Expected closing date: December 31, 2015
Does the project depart from the CPS in content or other significant ○ Yes X No respects? If yes, please explain: not relevant
iv
Does the project require any exceptions from Bank policies? ○ Yes X No Have these been approved/endorsed (as appropriate by Bank ○ Yes ○ No management? Is approval for any policy exception sought from the Board? ○ Yes X No If yes, please explain: not relevant Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for X Yes ○ No implementation? If no, please explain: Project Development objective. The development objective of the proposed Project is to improve the capacity of the Government of Tajikistan to plan, monitor, and manage social assistance for the poor through the development of a national registry of social protection and the provision of training, equipment and related items for improving said capacity.
Project description: The European Union, the Asian Development Bank, and the World Bank support policy actions to reform Tajikistan‟s system of social assistance through budget support grants. (These budget support grants are separate from this proposed grant.) The proposed grant for an IDA-supported project would build the tools and capacity of the Government to support its ability to achieve and manage these reforms.
These reforms have already begun: the European Union is now helping the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection to pilot the reform of social assistance in two districts. The pilot consolidates the two largest social assistance programs into a single benefit, and uses a proxy-means test to target benefits to the poorest 20 percent of the population. The World Bank has also mobilized a grant from the Rapid Social Response (RSR) Multi-Donor Trust Fund to support the implementation and evaluation of the pilot. This IDA-supported Project would support extension of these reforms by supporting the development of core tools and capacity for rolling them out at the national level.
Component 1: National Registry for Social Protection (USD 1.4 million equivalent). The first component would establish a National Registry for Social Protection. This would help the Government to apply a proxy-means test to identify the poorest households eligible for receipt of social assistance. It would also help the Government to manage, monitor, and oversee payments of social assistance. Moreover, it would provide a registry platform that could eventually be used by other social protection programs. This component would supply goods, including computer equipment, printers, scanners, and electrical, telephone and internet connections, to strengthen the capacity of MLSP to implement a nation-wide system of poverty-targeted social assistance.
Component 2: Capacity building (USD 1.2 million equivalent). The second component would train government personnel at the central and local levels to implement and use the national registry. It would also build the capacity of the Government to use the registry to control and audit payments of social assistance. Finally, it would support a small unit of local consultants, in the MLSP, to help plan for the national reform of social assistance.
Component 3: Project Management (USD 0.3 million equivalent). The third component would be for project management and coordination and for carrying out fiduciary tasks, including procurement, financial reporting and accounting activities, audit, and other reporting for the Project.
There would be a reserve of approximately USD 0.32 million equivalent.
v
Safeguard policies triggered? Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01) ○ Yes X No Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04) ○ Yes X No Forests (OP/BP 4.36) ○ Yes X No Pest Management (OP 4.09) ○ Yes X No Physical Cultural Resources (OP/BP 4.11) ○ Yes X No Indigenous Peoples (OP/BP 4.10) ○ Yes X No Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) ○ Yes X No Safety of Dams (OP/BP 4.37) ○ Yes X No Projects on International Waterways (OP/BP 7.50) ○ Yes X No Projects in Disputed Areas (OP/BP 7.60) ○ Yes X No
Conditions and Legal Covenants: Financing Agreement Reference Description of Date Due Condition/Covenant Section 4.01 (a) The Project Operational Manual Condition of effectiveness satisfactory to the Association has been adopted by the Project Coordination Group (PCG) Section 4.01(b) The PCG has upgraded its Condition of effectiveness automated 1C accounting system for the generation of interim financial reports for the Project
vi
I. Strategic Context
A. Country Context
1. Tajikistan is a small landlocked country in the heart of Central Asia. The country is blessed with abundant water resources, which contributes to its cotton production. Only 7 percent of its total land area is arable; high mountain ranges impede communication between different parts of the country, especially during the winter. Tajikistan experiences floods, landslides, earthquakes, and droughts. Shortly after its independence in 1991, the country descended into a civil war that lasted until mid-1997 and that caused widespread physical damage and loss of life.
2. During 2000-2008, the economy grew at an average of 8.6 percent per year. Total investment, dominated by public investment, hovered around 20 percent of GDP, with private investment stagnating at around 5 percent of GDP.
3. The original sources of this strong growth were probably the peace agreement that permitted businesses and households to return to normal economic activity, and the Government‟s success in stabilizing the economy. Growth in the global and regional economy led to rising aluminum and cotton export receipts and in workers‟ remittances, and this helped to sustain strong growth. Rising inflows of donor assistance and reforms that permitted existing businesses and households to take advantage of emerging opportunities also helped to sustain rapid growth.
4. The global economic crisis that started in September 2008 harmed Tajikistan. The decline in remittances and in exports of cotton and aluminum led to a slowdown of economic growth to 3.4 percent in 2009. Remittances fell by a third from USD 2.3 billion in 2008 (nearly 47 percent of GDP) to USD 1.6 billion in 2009, while total export receipts dropped by 7 percent because of lower international prices of cotton and aluminum. Falling exports, remittances, and GDP growth damaged the financial sector, as non-performing loans in banks rose to record levels. The disruption of cargo deliveries due to Uzbekistan border closures and large amounts of directed lending to the cotton sector added to financial sector difficulties.
5. The Government responded to the slowdown by increasing public spending under its anti-crisis action plan to protect critical social spending (education, health, social protection). It expanded employment opportunities through social programs such as a cash-for-work scheme and through measures to promote entrepreneurship. Furthermore, it allowed the Somoni to depreciate, which led to adjustment of the current account balance.
6. Renewed growth in Russia in 2010 helped to lift workers‟ remittances to Tajikistan to USD 2.0 billion in 2010. Production rose in the key agricultural and hydropower sectors, so that real growth of GDP recovered to 6.5 percent.
7. Despite high cumulative growth over the past decade, Tajikistan is still a poor country. In 2009, its gross national income (Atlas method) was only USD 700 per capita and almost half (47 percent) of the population were below the poverty line of USD 37 in consumption expenditures per person per month. Limited employment opportunities in Tajikistan prompted 40 percent of the working age population to seek better jobs in Russia. In 2007, 27 percent of children under age 5 were stunted (low height for age). In addition, an estimated 35 percent of the population was iodine deficient, which results in disorders such as goiter and intellectual disability.
1
B. Sectoral and Institutional Context
8. The Government of Tajikistan (GoT) addresses poverty, in part, through two main social assistance programs. The largest program is for electricity and gas compensation, and the second largest is for needy families whose children attend school. There is also a small program for resettled people, and some other, tiny programs.
9. However, the social assistance programs exert almost no downward influence on poverty rates. This is the conclusion reached in the World Bank‟s report, Tajikistan: Delivering Social Assistance to the Poorest Households, of December 30, 2010 (Report No. 56593-TJ), which forms the analytical basis for this Project. The report estimates that the social assistance programs lower the poverty rate by only 0.3 percentage point.
10. The most important reason is that the consolidated government budget for social assistance in 2009 was about 0.2 percent of GDP –the lowest in the Europe and Central Asia region. As a result, total social assistance was not particularly generous, and amounted to less than 3 percent of the per capita consumption expenditures of the poorest 20 percent (quintile) of households. It is thus especially urgent for Tajikistan to use this limited budget efficiently.
11. Another reason is that the GoT does not target the budget for social assistance to the poor effectively: only 23 percent of social assistance payments reached the poorest quintile of the population, with the rest “leaking” to better-off groups (Figure 1). Developing countries in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and in other regions have managed to develop effectively targeted social assistance programs that generate higher impacts on poverty, even with spending levels as low as 0.2-0.4 percent of GDP. Importantly, the lack of accurate and accessible information on recipients of social assistance weakens budgeting, management, and financial controls. There is no national electronic registry (or even
Figure 1: Targeting accuracy in ECA countries, percent of social assistance received by the poorest quintile of the population (in percentage points)
90 80 Note: IDA countries appear in black. Excludes 70 countries that borrow at both the IBRD & IDA rates. Source: World Bank, Social Protection regional data 60 base. 50 40 30 20 10 0
Source: World Bank, ECA data base
2 a basic consolidated listing) of beneficiaries, but only paper files in district offices. Only one paid staff member in each district office is responsible for collecting information on beneficiaries of social assistance (in addition to other functions and responsibilities), which limits incentives to perform the registration function well. As such, the district-level files are often inaccurate, or at least out-of-date. Lacking reliable information, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) prepares the budget for the Electricity and Gas Compensation program by adjusting the past year‟s budget rather than by basing the budget on information on beneficiaries. More seriously, the central offices of the MoF cannot analyze how funds disbursed from the Treasury flow to beneficiaries, since there is no central and accurate registry to audit.
12. These weaknesses in targeting, information management, monitoring, oversight and controls undermine the credibility of the social assistance system. During the 2008 global food price crisis, responses by donors and the government were constrained by the lack of a poverty-targeted and well- controlled mechanism for channeling assistance to the poor. This continued to cripple response efforts during the financial crisis of 2009.
13. A more credible and effective system of social assistance would help the Government channel assistance to poor households to help them maintain their consumption levels and human capital despite this poverty, and especially during economic downturns.
14. Therefore, the Government and major donors are pressing for reform of the system. Budget support grants from the European Union (EU), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and the World Bank have all been supporting policy actions to reform of Tajikistan‟s system of social assistance. This proposed IDA- supported project would build the tools capacity of the Government to support its ability to achieve and manage these reforms.
15. In January 2010, the Government took a significant step toward reform. It launched a pilot of a consolidated social assistance benefit in January 2011, with technical assistance from the European Union (EU). The pilot is being implemented in two districts where it:
a. Consolidates the two largest social assistance programs into a single benefit, b. Tests the scoring formula (proxy means test) for targeting the benefit to the poorest 20 percent of households (this is the proxy means test developed in the World Bank (2010) report1), and c. Develops and tests a database for recording applications for social assistance and for computing eligibility using the scoring formula.
16. The World Bank and the EU signed a Memorandum of Understanding on June 11, 2010 on cooperation to support the pilot.
17. To support the pilot, the World Bank mobilized a grant to the Government of USD 2.2 million from the Rapid Social Response (RSR) Multi-donor Trust Fund (P122039). This grant is expected to become effective in May 2011, well before the IDA grant described in this document. The RSR grant would begin to build capacity for a national rollout of the consolidated and poverty-targeted social assistance benefit.
18. Moreover, the World Bank will conduct an evaluation study of the Pilot of poverty-targeted social assistance. The evaluation would draw on a household survey scheduled for Q2 2011. The survey would allow the evaluation to estimate outcomes from the pilot. It will measure the extent of success of the pilot in delivering social assistance to the poorest households, as well as changes in household
1 World Bank, Tajikistan: Delivering Social Assistance to the Poorest Households, of December 30, 2010 (Report No. 56593-TJ).
3 consumption and health status. The study will also seek to identify additional indicators for use in poverty targeting.
Figure 2: illustrates the sequencing of activities to support social assistance, including links to government and donor programs.
End Users: Social Assistance and Social Services for the Poor •Government‟s Reform of Social Assistance •Other Government Social Programs / Services •Donor Assistance (crisis and otherwise)
Learning Analytic National from Pilot: Foundations National roll-out •Evaluation & Diagnostics: Piloting of: Roll-Out: continues: •Lessons- Study of social •Consolidate •Capacity •Capacity Learned assistance d SA benefit building building •Capacity system, design •PMT •Implement- •Implement- building National of PMT criteria ation ation •Adjustments •Poverty •Database •Adjustment •Adjustment social in design reports program to in design. in design. assistance •Extended •Georgia Study manage •Stage 1 pf •Stage 1 of system database Tour pilot the NRSP the NRSP operates program (EU, Govt, launched completed.\ (EU, Govt, with the (EU, WB, WB‟s RSR) •(Govt, WB‟s Stage 2 WB‟s RSR, full NRSP. Govt) IDA Grant) launched. IDA grant) (IDA grant)
EU, ADB and World Bank budget support grants (separate from Soc Safety Net Strengthening Project) Approximate timeline 2009-10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
19. The proposed IDA-supported Project is part of a sequential continuum of support by the World Bank and other donors, such as the EU. Figure 2 illustrates the sequence of actions to support the reform. The World Bank‟s support started with the diagnostic study 2 and continued with the RSR Grant. Both of these support the MLSP‟s pilot of social assistance, which is receiving technical assistance from the EU.
20. The EU, ADB, and World Bank grants all finance a program of policy actions, agreed with the Government, which includes the reform of social assistance. This proposed IDA-supported Project would help the Government develop tools and capacity to carry out these reforms, as explained above.
21. The rationale for this proposed IDA operation is to help the Government to build the institutional capacity and technical mechanisms that are necessary for the effective operation of a national system of social assistance. The proposed Project would build a national registry for social protection (NRSP) and would build capacity in the MLSP. It would complement the EU‟s technical assistance and the RSR Grant, which support the pilot and evaluation of poverty targeting, but devote few resources to the registry or to capacity building.
22. A National Registry for Social Protection (NRSP) would help the MLSP to: manage information to determine eligibility; avoid duplications in payments; monitor changes in the status of beneficiary households; and to make better-informed decisions. The proposed Project would help the MoF to track and oversee payments of social assistance and to conduct audits. Finally, the presence of a credible
2 Ibid.
4 registry would encourage both the Government and donors to channel aid to poor households through the system, in times of crisis and otherwise, which lowers transaction costs for all stakeholders.
23. While an effective registry and related institutional capacity for implementing the registry are necessary conditions for improving the delivery of social assistance, it is also important to note that they are not sufficient. Indeed, there are many other important ingredients in promoting effective delivery of social assistance, such as program design, adequate funding (budget allocations), and understanding of social assistance among the civil servants who would implement the reform.
C. Higher Level Objectives to which the Project Contributes and Rationale for World Bank Engagement
24. The proposed Project would serve the public and the poor by supporting delivery of social assistance to the poorest households. This would help offset some of the worst consequences of poverty and could contribute to addressing the impact of shocks, such as financial crises and droughts. Moreover, the proposed Project would also benefit the broader public by supporting mechanisms designed to improve targeting and reduce waste in the use of scarce public funds for social assistance. Importantly, it would promote accountability to the public by opening channels for complaints of abuses and for appeals of social assistance decisions.
25. Furthermore, the proposed Project would support the first objective of the Country Partnership Strategy: FY10-FY13 of April 2010 (report no. 50769-TJ), which is “reducing the negative impact of the crisis on poverty and vulnerability” (p 27). To achieve this objective, the Strategy states that, “IDA would provide technical assistance to improve targeting and administration of the safety net system as a whole…” (p 29). Specifically, the Strategy proposes to deliver this assistance through the proposed Project (Table 4, p 39).
II. Project Development Objectives
A. PDO
26. The development objective of the Project is to improve the capacity of the Government of Tajikistan to plan, monitor, and manage social assistance for the poor through the development of a national registry of social protection and the provision of training, equipment and related items for improving said capacity.
1. Project Beneficiaries
27. The Project would directly benefit the GoT, and in particular, the MLSP and the MoF, by building their capacity to launch and manage the reformed system of social assistance and to receive, share, and analyze information on the system.
28. Ultimately, the proposed Project would indirectly benefit approximately 15 percent of the poorest people in Tajikistan, amounting to about 1 million people, who would receive social assistance benefits following the reform and roll out of the registry.3
3 Historically, the GoT aimed to pay social assistance benefits from the largest social assistance program -electricity and gas compensation- to 20 percent of the population, or about 1.5 million people. The effort to cover such a large fraction of the
5
2. PDO Level Results Indicators
29. The project development outcome indicators, for measuring achievement of the PDO, include:
a. Coverage of the registry: the share of households, in percentage points, with records in the registry (NRSP or Pilot); coverage would rise from the more than 1 percent of Tajikistan‟s households now covered by the Pilot to 25 percent by the final year of the Project;
b. Eligibility compliance: the share of applicant households that were correctly classified as eligible or ineligible;4
c. Payments compliance: (i) percent of payments from the Treasury that are disbursed by the payment agent; and (ii) the estimated percent of payments from the payment agent that are received by the beneficiaries; and
d. Use of the registry for planning and budgeting.5
Please see Annex 1 for information on the measurement of these indicators.
III. Project Description
A. Project components
30. The first and main component of the proposed Project would establish a NRSP, building on the lessons and experience of the pilot. The second component would train government personnel and build other kinds of capacity to operate and sustain the NRSP, and to support its use for planning, managing, and overseeing applications, eligibility determination, and payments for social assistance benefits. The third and final component would be for project management.
31. Component 1: National Registry for Social Protection (USD 1.4 million equivalent). To ease absorption of the NRSP in Tajikistan, the Component would finance the development and implementation of the NRSP in two stages. The first stage would build on the database developed, with support from the EU, to support the pilot of targeting of social assistance. At this first stage, the NRSP would include the minimum software necessary to manage applications for benefits, compute eligibility for benefits using the PMT scoring formula, and control payments of social assistance benefits. In this stage, the proposed Project would equip district-level offices and connect them to the central database through the Internet. Jamoats would collect applications in paper form; the district-level offices would input and process the applications.6
32. This staged design responds to concerns expressed in the MLSP and MoF about the feasibility of installing and operating computers and communication equipment in jamoats in a country where rural centers often lose electricity supply in the winter and where some lack telephone connections. This population resulted in payments of negligibly low benefits. The GoT has not decided on the specific share of the population that it would cover following the national reform for social protection. 4 All social assistance systems incur errors and irregularities. Compliance is never 100%, due to administrative errors, measurement errors, and other leakages. The key is to develop systems, such as the NRSP, to detect and remedy them. 5 “Use” of the NRSP for planning and budgeting means that the MLSP uses it to extrapolate its budget needs for the next fiscal year, communicates this to the MoF, which then uses this information in budgeting. 6 Local administration in Tajikistan consists of provinces (oblasts), districts (rayons), and sub-districts (jamoats). There are 73 districts and 370 jamoats in Tajikistan
6 design also responds to the MLSP‟s concerns about the technical capacity of staff in the jamoats. The first stage of NRSP would include built-in checks to preserve the privacy of applicants.
33. In the second stage, the proposed Project would support the development and incorporation of expanded functions into the NRSP, such as planning and budgeting for social assistance. It would also support the expansion of the system into a unified registry that would include new programs, such as services to people with disabilities and employment services.
34. In the second stage, the proposed Project would equip the remaining district-level offices and connect them to the central database. Jamoats would still collect most applications, and district-level offices would input and process applications. To bring input of applications closer to the applicants, the proposed Project would equip about 20 to 50 pilot jamoats and connect them to the central database.
35. To realize this two-stage process, the Project would fund procurement of a contract with an information technology design company that would write technical specifications for software that would respond to the Government‟s needs at each of the two stages (within budget limits). The company would meet, at each stage, with a user group composed of government officials, and would review the evaluation and lessons learned from the pilot database and targeting system. The proposed Project would then fund a contract with a software development company that would write the software described in the technical specifications. The NRSP would thus expand through use, learning, and improvement.
36. This process would ultimately lead to a NRSP that offers users up-to-date information on the status of transactions with the social assistance system. This NRSP would support the daily business processes of government offices involved in social protection, at the jamoat, district, and central MLSP offices. Therefore, the NRSP would provide the Government with a tool that is more than a database to be filled in with numbers. This approach to design follows from international experience, which suggests that local officials are more likely to update files on beneficiaries if this helps them to carry out their functions. In contrast, the integrity of a database is questionable when the files only benefit use by central managers.
37. The Component would finance the costs of design, programming, testing, installation, and start-up for each stage of the NRSP. More specifically, the Component would finance the contract of the design firm and would finance the contract for software production. Moreover, the component would finance technical assistance to the GoT for procurement of these contracts. The Component would finance desktop computers, servers, communications equipment, and electrical, telephone, and internet connections.
38. Component 2: Capacity building (USD 1.2 million equivalent). This component would support the training of civil servants in the MLSP and the MoF who would carry out the reform of social assistance, and would support the training of community committees and Mahala-e-raises (heads of communities) who would help with outreach and monitoring. The training effort would concentrate on staff skills in the MLSP‟s Agency for Social Protection, which would manage and implement the NRSP and its reformed social assistance program. Training staff at the district and jamoat level would support the front line of workers who collect and process claims for social assistance. Training of the many staff at the front line would minimize skill losses to migration and turnover. The training would consist of a series of short courses, supplemented by on-the-job training, to maximize learning and skills retention.
39. At the start of implementation, the Component would support a capacity assessment so that the Government can allocate training (and equipment, under Component 1) efficiently. The World Bank team conducted a preliminary capacity assessment, with the cooperation of the MLSP. On this basis, the
7
Government and the World Bank team agreed that Component 2 would support the following types of activities:
Organizational skills and operational management of daily work tasks; Basic financial literacy and cash management, including: concept of accounts; assets and liabilities; debits and credits; Information on social assistance and on outreach to collect applications for social assistance; Use of desktop applications (i.e. Microsoft Office) and safe internet use; Concepts of monitoring projects; Leadership and strategic management skills, and Preparation of project proposals.
40. The Component would support repeated training to reinforce skills development and to ensure that staff adopt and retain good practices, and so that the training can be adapted to meet the specific challenges that the staff face. The Component would support the costs of bringing the participants to district seats and to central locations, when necessary.
41. The Component would support a small Policy and Planning Unit in the MLSP, consisting of consultants, to help the Government plan for national rollout of the registry and of the reform of social assistance.
42. Component 3: Project Management (USD 0.3 million equivalent). The Executive Office of the President (EOP) would be responsible for all fiduciary tasks for the project while the MLSP would be responsible for technical implementation. The EOP would implement the Project through its Project Coordination Group (PCG). The Project would support consultancies for the PCG, its operating costs, and light rehabilitation of MLSP offices. (See section IV below and Annex III, for further information.)
B. Project Financing
1. Lending Instrument
43. The lending instrument would be a specific investment loan (SIL), which would be provided as an International Development Association (IDA) Grant.
Table 1: Project financing
Project Components Project cost IDA Financing % Financing (USD mill) (USD mill) 1. National Registry for Social Protection 1.40 1.40 100% 2. Capacity building 3. Project management 1.16 1.16 100% 0.32 0.32 100% Total Baseline Costs Physical contingencies Price contingencies 0.16 0.16 100% 0.16 0.16 100% Total Project Costs 3.2 0 3.2 0 Total Financing Required 3.20 3.20
8
2. Project Cost and Financing
44. IDA would finance 100 percent of the costs of this proposed Project, because the government budget is constrained (Table 1). Nevertheless, IDA is not the only financial supporter of reform of social assistance.
C. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design
45. The central lesson learned from international experience is that a transparent and credible poverty-targeting mechanism and registry system is important for effectively managing, monitoring and overseeing social assistance benefits – and ultimately for building public support for reforms. Another lesson is that it generally takes several years, and longer than initially estimated, to fully reform social assistance. A further lesson is to engage local communities in implementation of the social assistance program, to improve outreach, verify payments, and strengthen credibility.
46. The proposed Project also builds on international experience with poverty targeting and registry systems. In Moldova, the UK, Sweden, and the World Bank supported a national rollout of a poverty- targeted social assistance benefit through budget support, technical assistance, and by funding the development of a national registry. The Government started building the registry late because it spent more than three years defining its specific needs from the registry. In the interim, the Government of Moldova used an Excel-based database to manage cash payments. In the end, the Government concluded that it needed a more complete system. The lessons for this proposed Project for Tajikistan are, first, to help the Government to define its functional needs from a registry prior to the start of the project and, second, to introduce the registry in stages to ease absorption, taking into account capacity at the various administrative levels.
47. In Afghanistan, the World Bank supports the piloting of a new unconditional cash transfer program. The Government‟s capacity to implement this is weak, since Afghanistan lacks functioning local governments. Therefore, the Ministry contracted with NGOs to help distribute application forms, collect information, enter applications into a prototype off-line registry, and forward the applications and the data to the Ministry of Labor Social Affairs, Martyrs and Disabled. This shows that a well-organized social assistance program can function effectively even in the absence of local administration.
48. In Kazakhstan, the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program, supported by the BOTA foundation, is a social assistance program that targets poor families with children. The CCT uses cash-transfers to stimulate use of health, nutrition, and education services by poor families. It targets these poor families using a proxy-means testing (PMT) scoring formula. The formula is built into an automated registry for managing applications, information and payments entirely outside of government systems.
49. The CCT program also uses community-based outreach mechanisms to promote take-up and monitor the program. In 2010, the program covered 10 000 people in two pilot oblasts. In this program, 300 community volunteers invite potential applicants for enrollment, provide training, and help with monitoring and verification. The BOTA foundation trains the volunteers on outreach, delivery of training, and community mobilization. It also pays volunteers a small stipend to cover travel costs. The volunteers link the program‟s oblast-level teams and the beneficiaries, providing immediate feedback in cases of non-receipt of payments and in cases of problems with services, and suggesting the households to target for verification. This experience shows that it is possible to strengthen outreach and monitoring by involving the local community.
9
50. In Tajikistan, the World Food Program (WFP) identifies high-risk districts in Tajikistan with the help of the government and non-government organizations. A local committee with good ethnic and gender representation of local residents identifies households in need. Jamoat officials approve the lists of households, and the WFP contracts NGOs to monitor a random selection of households from the lists. Involvement of all potential stakeholders in the social assistance program increased program coverage and effectiveness.
51. A lesson from implementation of several social assistance projects is that implementation units usually need technical assistance to procure software for central electronic registries.
IV. Implementation
A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements
52. The Project Coordination Group (PCG) of the Executive Office of the President (EOP) would be responsible for financial management, procurement, and grant monitoring. The PCG is a group of consultants who work for the EOP and help the EOP to implement projects. The PCG is now completing implementation of a civil service reform project, and in this context, it has built a history of cooperation with the MLSP. Its capacity in procurement and financial management is strong and it has a good history of financial audits.
53. The MLSP would implement all social assistance activities supported by the proposed Project, and would manage all consultants who work on social assistance and on capacity building. Furthermore, the MLSP would draft terms of reference and technical specifications (subject to EOP approval of the fiduciary aspects of these documents). The MLSP leadership and senior staff are willing to work to improve social assistance.
54. The Project Operations Manual (POM) would define the exact roles and responsibilities of the EOP and MLSP in implementing the proposed Project. Adoption of the POM is a condition for effectiveness of the IDA Grant.
55. The World Bank team includes social protection sector experts with experience in poverty targeting and registries, an expert on registry and information technology, and an expert on procurement who can advise the EOP and the MLSP. The team also includes a specialist in procurement of information technology. Importantly, the PCG would also recruit a specialist to assist with procurement of the registry design contract and the software development contract.
B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation
56. The PCG would assemble and report on progress towards achieving the Project Development Indicators (PDIs), as well as the intermediate outcome indicators. The Group would collect information from the MLSP, and in particular from its operational arm, the Agency for Social Protection. The proposed Project would finance local consultants, who would assist the MLSP in gathering information. The proposed Project would also finance surveys, to assess the effectiveness of the NRSP-based system in assessing the eligibility of applicants.
10
C. Sustainability
57. The proposed Project appears politically sustainable: the GoT has committed itself formally to the reform in its budget support grant agreements with the EU, the ADB, and the World Bank. Moreover, the GoT has acted on this commitment by launching the pilot of reform.
58. The investments in the proposed Project are in themselves mechanisms for assuring the sustainability of the reform of social assistance. The NRSP is a core “nuts-and-bolts” tool for managing the reformed system and the investment in capacity building will help to sustain poverty-targeting.
59. The team estimates the initial operating cost to the government budget of the NRSP at about USD 58,000 per year (Annex 2 Table 5). This cost of operation would decline in the medium-term, relative to the funds managed, as the NRSP is expanded to cover other benefits, such as pension, services to people with disabilities, and other public programs. Use of the NRSP to manage applications and control payments of social assistance is expected to reduce costs by eliminating duplications in benefits and by reducing re-allocation of funds to other types of expenditures at the district and jamoat level, and by reducing other leakages of funds.
60. The Capacity Building component (Component 2) would help to sustain the human resources necessary for operation of the NRSP and for delivery of targeted social assistance in the field. As explained above, the proposed Project would support training in basic management, financial and technical subjects to build a broad base of personnel capable of delivering social assistance efficiently, and to offset any losses induced by relatively low wages.
V. Key Risks and Mitigation Measures
61. The overall risk rating is Medium-I according to the risks identified and presented in the attached ORAF in Annex 4. This section highlights a few of these main risks.
62. There are risks of delays in the implementation of social assistance reforms. The policy matrix for the EU budget support grant calls for national rollout of poverty-targeted social assistance in 2013. However, a delay in the rollout until 2014-15 appears possible. In effect, this is a risk of delay in the use of the NRSP and in learning lessons from use of the NRSP. Therefore, the proposal is for a four-year Project. Moreover, this term would allow the MLSP and the MoF the time necessary to receive, install, and learn to operate the NRSP.
63. Another risk is that lack of budget resources for local administration may reduce the effectiveness of the registry. To mitigate the risk, the proposed Project would train community groups and Mahala-e- raises (heads of communities) to assist jamoats in reaching out to poor and isolated households to collect applications for social assistance.
64. As explained above, the Government, the EU, and the World Bank team plan to draw on the lessons of the pilot during 2012, when an RSR grant supported evaluation of the pilot would be ready. These lessons would then be applied to improving the registry.
11
VI. Appraisal Summary
A. Economic and Financial Analysis
65. The World Bank‟s recent study demonstrated that the present system of social assistance is an inefficient instrument for reducing poverty.7 The study showed that, in 2009, coverage of the poor was low, and found much leakage of payments to the non-poor: social assistance covered only 20 percent of the poorest quintile of households (coverage), and only 23 percent of social assistance payments reached the poorest quintile (targeting accuracy). Moreover, benefit payments were meager: social assistance amounted to less than 3 percent of the per capita monthly consumption of the poorest 20 percent of the population, the lowest in the ECA countries of the World Bank. The study used a scoring formula estimated using the Tajikistan Living Standards Survey of 2009. Simulations of this formula show that, if the public administration applies the formula, this would increase targeting accuracy to 54 percent. Most of the leakage is to households in the second and third quintiles, rather than to the richest two quintiles.
66. The study also found that the Ministry of Finance does not have adequate control over the funds that it transfers to the districts for payment of benefits. In the present system, there are only paper registries at the district level, which complicates audit. The study found opportunities for reallocating funds designated for paying benefits, and found potential for other leakages.
67. The NRSP would improve the efficiency of the social assistance system by increasing its effectiveness in reducing poverty. It would also save scarce public resources by enabling the Ministry of Finance to reduce reallocation of social assistance for other purposes at the district level, and by reducing errors and fraud.
B. Technical
68. The proposed Project, and the design of the NRSP in particular, are based on the initial technical diagnostics in the World Bank (2010) report.8 As explained above, further design aspects of the NRSP would reflect lessons learned from the on-going Pilot. It also builds on fieldwork and preliminary capacity assessments carried out during project preparation, as discussed in Annex 1.
69. Based on these diagnostics and assessments, the team concluded that development and implementation of the NRSP is institutionally and technically feasible. It also concluded that the Government could introduce the NRSP in two stages, during the period of 2011-2015, to take into account capacity development. By introducing software functions in two stages, and by progressively equipping civil servants‟ work places, it would be possible to develop a web-based system, with a central database located in Dushanbe. With such architecture, data can be input from any point with access to the Internet. Access is possible from many parts of Tajikistan. According to, Tajikistan Electronic Readiness Assessment (2010), 3G communication is available in many populated areas, and four major operators offer service. Tajikistan has a fiber-optic backbone operated by Tojiktelekom and ADSL is available. Costs are affordable, according to the Tojiktelekom tariff table. The NRSP can allow other types of input, such as off-line data transfer to or from the central database.
C. Financial Management
70. The PCG under the EOP would be responsible for financial management of this grant, including any transfers to the government budget for social assistance. At present, this PCG manages the World
7 Op Cit. World Bank (2010). 8 Ibid.
12
Bank-financed Public Sector Reform grant (P096861). The PCG follows acceptable financial management arrangements, which the Bank reviews regularly and that are satisfactory. The World Bank conducted its most recent review in April 2010.
71. The PCG has submitted regular and satisfactory unaudited interim financial reports (IFRs) and audit reports, including for 2009. The PCG submitted the audit reports on time and these were satisfactory. The financial management arrangements established by the PCG, therefore, meet the World Bank‟s minimum requirements. The PCG‟s financial consultant is experienced and has adequate knowledge of the Bank‟s financial management and disbursement procedures; and the PCG has installed an automated accounting system, using 1C software, that generates the interim financial reports that PCG submits to the Bank on a quarterly basis.
72. The financial management risk for this project is substantial because of the design and objectives of the grant, despite the demonstrated ability of the PCG to adequately manage project implementation and to comply with financial management requirements. The PCG processes all its payments and submits withdrawal applications through the EOP. The financial consultant of the PCG and the Project Coordinator have no signature rights, as the PCG is not a legal entity, but rather is subordinated to the EOP. Given that the IDA Grant is under the MLSP, there is the risk of blurred accountability for the use of IDA grant funds. This calls for a clear understanding of the roles that the MLSP, PCG and the EOP would play with regard to the IDA grant. This Project Operations Manual would define this understanding in detail.
73. Overall, the actions required to ensure satisfactory financial management requirements include development and adoption of a satisfactory Project Operations Manual and upgrading of the automated accounting system already installed at PCG by Effectiveness to include an additional database for the IDA grant transactions and to be able to generate IFRs.
D. Procurement
74. The Project Coordination Group at the EOP would procure all goods, services, training, works (minor repairs of offices), etc. for this Project. The EOP has a satisfactory history of work on procurement. The EOP would base its procurement on draft terms of reference and technical specifications that the Project‟s Technical Working Group (TWG) would submit. The TWG would include officials from the MLSP and the MoF, who are not familiar with the Bank's procurement policies and guidelines and with its various standard-bidding documents to be used on the project. The main procurement risk would be potential delay with preparation of quality bidding documents, including technical specifications for different contract packages and terms of reference for consultant assignments. To mitigate this risk, the EOP would review these documents to assure consistency with the Guidelines; and provide specialized support especially on IT issues through hiring a qualified consultant. The initial procurement plan covers all procurement activities for the entire project period. Annex 3 provides further details on procurement arrangements.
E. Social (including safeguards)
75. The reform of social assistance would improve the long-term well-being of socially marginal groups by helping them, through improvements in the delivery of social assistance, to improve their living conditions and help them mitigate the adverse impacts of crises without suffering losses in health and without selling necessary assets, such as cattle. For example, the proposed Project would help the MLSP to reach out to households with a member with a disability to encourage them to apply. In Tajikistan, many women became poor heads of households when their husbands stopped sending remittances from Russia. With support from the Project, the MLSP would seek applications from these women.
13
76. The proposed Project would not trigger any social safeguards.
F. Environment
77. The proposed Project would not trigger any Environmental Policies. The proposed Project would support some light rehabilitation of MLSP offices. Rehabilitation would be limited to light repairs of MLSP offices, painting, installation of electrical and communications connections, and furniture. There would be no major rehabilitation, extension of buildings beyond their original „footprint‟, and no new construction. The Project Operations Manual would include environmental procedures to address any environmental consequences of office repairs. These environmental procedures are those adopted by the IDA-supported Community Health Project.
14
Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitor TAJIKISTAN: Social Safety Net Strengthening Project Results Framework
Project Development Objective (PDO): The development objective of the proposed Project is to improve the capacity of the Government of Tajikistan to plan, monitor, and manage social assistance for the poor through the development of a national registry of social protection and the provision of training, equipment and related items for improving said capacity. Description (indicator
Cumulative Target Values Respons- PDO Level Results Unit of Freq- Data Source/ ibility for definition etc.) Baseline YR 1
Core YR 2 YR 3 YR 4 YR 5 Indicators* Measure Sept-Dec uency Methodology Data 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 Collection Indicator One: Coverage of % 1.3% 2% 4% 10% 20% 25% Annual Reports from MLSP , Extracted from the NRSP the registry: the share of points Pilot reg./ the Agency for database: # of households in households, in percentage national. hh Social database points, with records in the in April Protection, Population of households registry (NRSP or Pilot). 2011 MLSP Indicator Two: Eligibility % None None None 80% 85% 90% Annual Surveys of a EOP-PCG All social assistance systems compliance: The share of points random sample incur errors and irregularities. applicant households that of applicants, Compliance is never 100%, were correctly classified as contracted by due to administrative errors, eligible or ineligible. the PCG. measurement errors, and other leakages.
Indicator Three: Payments % None None None i. 95% i. 95% i. 95% Annual i. Reports from MoF, i. Some households do not compliance: (i) percent of points ii. 85% ii. 90% ii. 90% the MoF. EOP- PCG withdraw their social payments from the Treasury ii. Surveys of assistance payments. ii. Not that are disbursed by the random sample all payments reported by the payment agent; and (ii) the of hh.s by payment agent reach estimated percent of EOP-PCG. beneficiaries because of errors payments from the payment and other leakages. agent that are received by the beneficiaries. Indicator four: Use of the Yes or No No No No Yes. Yes Annual MLSP center, MoF, The MLSP uses the NRSP to registry for planning and No MoF Center. MLSP extrapolate its budget needs budgeting. World Bank for the next fiscal year, team visits. communicates this to the MoF, which uses the information in budgeting.
15
INTERMEDIATE RESULTS Intermediate Result (Component One): NRSP:
Description (indicator
Cumulative Target Values Respons- Unit of Freq- Data Source/ ibility for definition etc.) Baseline YR 1
Core YR 2 YR 3 YR 4 YR 5 Measure Sept-Dec uency Methodology Data 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 Collection Intermediate Result Indicator % points None None 50% 70% 85% 90% Annual MLSP, MLSP , Many district level offices One: Proportion of district- supervision PCG of the ASP are equipped level offices equipped with missions with computers but not adequate computers and connected to the internet. connected to the Internet. Intermediate Result Indicator No of None 0 0 0 20 20 Annual MLSP, PCG MLSP, Two: Number of jamoats Jamoats PCG piloting electronic input of applications through the NRSP Intermediate Result Indicator Yes or No No No Yes Yes Yes. Yes Annual MLSP, PCG MLSP, Three: Payments tracked by PCG the NRSP. Intermediate Result Indicator Yes or No No No No No Yes. Yes Annual MLSP, PCG MLSP, MLSP has started to Four: Use of mechanism for PCG recertify beneficiaries recertification after required time period. Intermediate Result indicator Persons Baseline Annual MLSP, MoF PCG Five: Government district and established To be planned following capacity assessment at jamoat-level staffed trained. by start of Project capacity- assessment at start of Project Intermediate Result indicator Persons Same as Annual MLSP, MoF PCG Six MLSP and MoF central above To be planned following capacity assessment at staff trained. start of Project. Yes or No No unit No Yes Yes Yes Yes Annual MLSP and MLSP, Functioning means that Intermediate Result indicator exists World Bank World the unit is producing Seven: Policy and Planning missions. Bank detailed plans for the Unit in the MLSP is staffed and national rollout of the functioning reform of social assistance
16
Annex 2: Detailed Project Description
Component 1. National Registry for Social Protection -NRSP (USD 1.4 million).
A. Overview of the NRSP
Purpose. The National Registry for Social Protection (NRSP) is a tool for use in targeting, delivery, monitoring, and controlling aid to eligible households and people. Importantly, the NRSP would serve the public by speeding the daily operation of the system of social assistance.
Scope. The NRSP would support:
Basic operational functions, such as: processing of applications, database management and cross checks, determination of eligibility and benefits, processing and issuance of payments, case management, and recertification; Broader management and oversight functions, such as: planning and budgeting, implementation management and performance monitoring, and oversight and controls.
Users. The MLSP and its Agency for Social Protection (ASP) would use the NRSP to manage and oversee social benefits. Eventually, jamoats (sub-districts) could use the NRSP to input applications for social assistance. The MoF would use the NRSP for planning, budgeting, monitoring, and oversight of payments. Other Ministries, agencies, or donors could use the NRSP to manage other social programs and to target assistance to the poor.
Value. The NRSP‟s value would arise from its use in carrying out a reform of social assistance that would consolidate the main existing programs and deliver benefits to the poorest households.
Moreover, The NRSP would increase the credibility of the social assistance system. At present, the MLSP cannot easily confirm whether the poorest households benefit from social assistance. Furthermore, the MoF cannot verify whether the intended beneficiaries (poor or not) have received payments. Therefore, the creation of a registry system would reassure donors interested in financing social assistance to channel aid (assistance or services) to the poor.
B. Design of NRSP
The design strategy for the NRSP is to build an operational computer-based system that supports daily business processes of the district and central MLSP offices so that officials would use the registry and update files on beneficiaries regularly. International experience suggests that local officials update files on beneficiaries more regularly and accurately if the registry is useful to them for their work tasks, and not only because it only benefits central managers. The strategy is to extend these functions, over time, to the jamoat level, where technically possible.
Furthermore, the strategy is to introduce the NRSP in stages, to ease absorption of the system into the government administration. This strategy would bring a group of functions into operation at each stage.
17
Table 1: NRSP – Introduction by Groups of Functions
Stage Functions Access to system a) Consultants to the EU developed a database - Install a central server, to be financed program for use in recording applications and through the RSR Grant. computing eligibility. The consultants are - Place more PC‟s on the field, to be expanding the functions of this database financed through the RSR Grant. Pilot Stage: program. This would provide valuable Supporting experience and provide a basis for work in Stage the PMT 1. The RSR grant will support evaluation of the software Pilot, and lessons from the evaluation will help inform the design of the stages and functions for the NRSP.
Core registry functions: - Users access the central database in b) Applications for social assistance. Dushanbe through the Internet. c) Computation of eligibility of applicants for social - Equip the central location. assistance (automated, using PMT weights and - Equip the district-level offices and scoring formula), and cross-checks on connect them to the central database. Stage 1: Core information consistency - Jamoats collect most applications in functions d) Determination of the amount of benefit. paper form; the district-level offices e) Payments and checks on payments of social input and process the applications. assistance. f) Appeals by applicants. g) Audit, financial and statistical reports.
Improvement of Stage 1 functions - Equip and district offices missed in a) Review and improvement of existing functions Stage 1 and connect them to the b) Add new core functions, such as planning and Internet. budgeting, conditionality, advanced audit - Jamoats still collect most applications, Stage 2: methodologies, etc. district-level offices input and process Additional Unified Registry: extension of the NRSP to new applications. functions programs: Gradual introduction of support to various - Equip about 20-50 pilot jamoats and social protection functions (unified registry for connect them to the central database, multiple uses) and/or integration / links with other allowing data processing on local systems, such as services to people with disabilities. level.
Social case management functions: - Strengthen access to system on district a) On-going monitoring of beneficiaries, profiles, level by improving connections, etc. Stage 3: New needs. - Gradually introduce more access in programs b) Referrals to households in one social protection jamoats. (continued program for benefits from another such program; enhancements c) Case management: planning, monitoring and after the progress assessment; and project) d) Generation of more reports for analysis.
18
The following text describes the design of the NRSP for each stage in more detail.
Pilot Stage: Supporting the proxy-means test software. At present, the software to support the pilot of poverty-targeted social assistance manages data input from applications for social assistance, with some basic control and reporting mechanisms. Input of data to the server depends on Internet availability. Further development and use of this software would bring critical experience and better understanding of the Government‟s requirements from the NRSP. This RSR Grant will support the evaluation of the Pilot, and these lessons will help inform the design of the stages and functions for the NRSP.
Stage 1: Core functions. In the first stage, the NRSP would support daily data processing related to basic cash payments of social assistance at the desk of field staff at district level offices, where technically possible. Table 2: Decision table for use of options for input of applications to the NRSP
Electricity
YES With interuptions NO Data entry done directly to the Data entry done directly to the central database from YES central database computers or laptops that have autonomous power supply
A computer with an irregular connection to the central database Data entry done directly to the With in Dushanbe; when not connected, the application is entered into central database from laptops inter- a local database; after reconnecting, the local database is during the periods of Internet uptions Internet synchronized with the central database availability The application is entered into a local database on laptop; laptop is brought to a location with NO Internet access, after reconnecting, the local database is synchronized with the central database
Applications for social assistance. The NRSP would support the input of data from applications for social assistance. For that purpose, the central database in Dushanbe would be accessible through the Internet. The NRSP would be web-based and would provide secure direct access to data from any point with access to the Internet. Points that do not have access to Internet would be able to work locally (off-line) and synchronize later with the central database. Most of the district level offices can connect to the Internet through ADSL fixed lines9. As the alternative, wireless 3G connection is available in many populated places in Tajikistan. Table 2 describes the options for electronic input of applications.
In Stage 1, paper civil servants would bring applications from jamoat offices for entry at district-level offices. Jamoats would not enter data directly into the NRSP in stage 1 because of constraints on the availability of electricity, telephone and internet connections, and trained staff. Figure 1 illustrates the application process (for the sake of simplicity, the notifications and appeals do not appear in the figure).
Approval of applications for social assistance and determination of the amount of benefit. The NRSP software would apply the proxy-means test (scoring formula) automatically to approve or reject applications for social assistance and to determine the amount of the benefit. The districts would receive information on eligibility from the center and would notify applicants in a letter that would include instructions on how to appeal determinations of ineligibility. The NRSP would verify the consistency of information through automatic crosschecks of records.
9 The ADSL is available from Tajik Telecom for 100-200 TJS (18-36 USD) per month. The Tax Committee is already running the system with stable networking on the district level, based on the same technology.
19
Figure 1: Application Process
Paper form
level Jamoat Paper form
Internet
Central office level District database
Applicants/Beneficiaries
Appeals of rejections of applications. Furthermore, the NRSP would speed, simplify, and integrate the appeals process. Once a civil servant enters an appeal into the system, the civil servant mandated to respond can view the appeal on a computer screen (for example, at district-level office or central location) and then process the case. Resolution of the appeal would lead to changes in the database that would automatically lead to changes in payment lists and other relevant data sets.
Figure 2: Payment Process
MoF Money Treasury
Summary Money payment orders transfer
Payment Money
Central database agent
Payment Beneficiaries
Payment lists network Distibution report
Payments of social assistance. The central database would include detailed data on payments for approved beneficiaries. The NRSP would generate payment lists (monthly, quarterly, semi-annually, or annually) with individual data for each beneficiary, and summary payment orders for the treasury for a lump sum to be transferred to the payment agent (currently, the Government uses Amonatbank as their payment agent). In the future, the MoF could pay through another bank, several banks, post offices, or any other payment agent. The authorized payment agent would then distribute the money to beneficiaries
20 through its network, and return reports on individual payments to the NRSP. Figure 2 illustrates the payment process for social assistance.
The authorized payment agents and the Treasury would interact with the NRSP through their own computerized systems. For example, an authorized payment agent could automatically transfer money to its branch offices, and even to individual accounts of beneficiaries. The payment agent could produce electronic payment reports (in the format defined in the NRSP design), which would be automatically imported into central NRSP database.
Thus, the NRSP would support a flexible payment mechanism because it could easily generate lists by different selection criteria (by region, group of beneficiaries, time frequency, payment agent etc.). The NRSP can generate daily reports on payments, even if the payment period is quarterly or annual. Officials can then use the NRSP to learn when a payment reached a beneficiary. The automatic generation of lists for more than one payment agent can also improve payments reliability.
Oversight of payments. The NRSP would generate many reports needed for audits and decision-making. The reporting requirements would depend on managerial level. High-level managers would receive a small set of concrete indicators, so that they can track overall performance and plan for the future. Officials in district-level offices would track several compliance indicators. In addition to the district- level and jamoat officials, the central MLSP and MOF offices would have access to the NRSP.
Stage 2: Additional functions and expansion to cover additional programs. At the second stage, a software company could introduce new functions related to basic cash benefits social assistance, such as:
Support for planning and budgeting. The MLSP and MoF could draw on current and historical data from the NRSP for use in planning and budgeting. More sophisticated audit methods. The company could introduce a „risk-based‟ auditing method, for both targeting and payments. With software for “smart” auditing techniques, the NRSP would indicate which categories of households are subject to high risks of errors of inclusion or exclusion. If properly structured, the process would improve over time as NRSP „learns‟ about the effectiveness of its directed audits. Such modern audit techniques are increasingly cost effective. Mechanism for recertification. In line with good practice, the GoT would establish a required re-certification period. The ASP would send a letter or otherwise inform beneficiaries a few months in advance of their need to recertify and instructions as to how to do so. The World Bank team recommends mandating recertification following two to three years of enrollment, following international practice for target groups that face chronic poverty.
Piloting the NRSP in jamoats. Stage 2 would also support the piloting of extension of the NRSP system to the jamoat level. Currently, officials do most administrative work related to social assistance at the district level. However, there is potential to delegate some of these responsibilities to jamoats. That way, access to social protection options would be closer to the people in need, jamoats would better serve local communities, and district-level offices would be relieved of some of their administrative burden. The strategy is to move the access to the system as close as possible to the local level. Any location where staff can use a computer and/or connect to the Internet has the potential of using NRSP with four electronic data input scenarios. Therefore, in Stage 2, the project would support the pilot introduction of the system to small number of jamoats.
Expansion to a unified registry. Many countries started with a registry for a single program, and then expanded its use and capacity to cover multiple programs. To achieve this in Tajikistan, the MLSP could
21 register larger shares of the population (and expand the PMT questionnaire as needed) and allow other programs to use the registry to determine eligibility for other programs. The MLSP could apply the same eligibility threshold as the core social assistance program; alternatively, it could apply other programs‟ established targeting thresholds and eligibility criteria --depending on the budgets and objectives of those other programs.
Stage 3: Social case management approach and extension to additional jamoats (not supported by the Project).
Social case management. Stage 3 would introduce an individual social case management module, to support the daily work of social protection officials, including support for processing of individual social cases in social programs sometime in the future. This establishes a foundation for an integrated social protection registry. Different programs may serve the same people, thus once an official enters a person or household into the registry database, all supported programs can use that information. Similarly, the registry could serve people (or households) with different PMT threshold scores for multiple programs, depending on program objectives. This integrated database can prove useful for targeting new or emergency social protection programs. The generalized individual social case management module should support:
Monitoring and updating of beneficiary profiles, needs; Helping beneficiaries establish and track goals (e.g., with social contract arrangements); Assessments of needs and cross-referrals to other social services and benefits; Monitoring access to multiple programs (e.g., if different individuals or the family qualify for multiple programs); Tracking and reporting. Monitoring of recertification status;
Increased connections to jamoats. In Stage 3, the Government could also expand connections between jamoats and the central database. As soon as one computer in a jamoat is connected to the Internet, the beneficiaries travel there to submit their applications for quick processing or just to get information. There would probably always be jamoats that would not be able to access the system regularly. Nevertheless, many jamoats would eventually connect to the Internet, and this would improve the quality of data and reduce the pressure on data processing in district offices.
C. The process of developing the NRSP
Procurement of design and software development contracts. The PCG in the EOP would separate procurement of the detailed system design and procurement of a contract to implement the NRSP (program and implement the software). Therefore, the PCG would procure contracts with two firms. It would procure the services of a design firm (or group of individual consultants) to work throughout implementation of the Project, with the purpose of making a conceptual and detailed design of the system, both software and hardware. The design company would prepare technical specifications for the bidding documents for procurement of the software development firm.
Building on the software for the pilot. The design of the NRSP would build on experience with the software developed for the Pilot. The Government would decide how to achieve this, based on analysis and advice from the design company and on further assessment of experiences with the software for the pilot. In any case, the knowledge inherently included into design of the system developed for the pilot and its database would not be lost, but instead integrated into the NRSP.
22
Design in steps. To start, the design company would produce the conceptual design of the NRSP. Next, the contractor would design Stage 1 of the NRSP in detail. The contractor would design Stage 2 in less detail, but would include a list of additional functions it would develop (from previously accepted NRSP conceptual design). The details of the design, at Stage 2, would depend on experience with Stage 1 and on government requests. However, the Project would support procurement of a single contract for implementation of both stages – that is for software production, installation, and testing.
The design contractor would also specify the hardware for procurement, based on a field assessment on the needs. (Some of the district offices and jamoats already have some of the equipment). The project group would procure the software in two stages. This process is more complicated than one stage procurement and therefore requires:
- Strong technical monitoring by the design company; - Strong managerial control by the Government and the Project Group and strong component coordinator and dedicated persons in the MLSP; - Strong supervision by the World Bank project team, including IT and procurement specialists.
This approach responds to government concerns about its capacity to absorb the new system. It also responds to government concerns that it cannot fully define its requirements in a single stage. Development in stages is more organic: the information system “grows” together with the social protection system and poses less risk of missing user needs.
Organizational changes required for the NRSP
Information systems implementation is not just technical innovation, it is rather an organizational change that affects the way organizations fulfill their missions. The World Bank team recommends that the Government take decisions on organizational issues as follows:
a. Select the institution responsible for NRSP operations. (Currently, the Agency for Social Protection is the institution responsible for the pilot software.) b. Within the responsible institution, create a small unit to manage the NRSP operations. The Project would support developing the capacities of the unit. c. Appoint a responsible person in the MLSP and a chief of operations in the responsible institution.
The component would make an inventory of existing data sets and define the strategy and methods for data migration (existing to new system, and between development stages).
a. NRSP design contract b. Software development and implementation contract c. Hardware purchase and installation contract d. Equip the central location e. System usage training, initial support and guarantee period maintenance
(Component 2 would support training of the civil servants who would operate and use the NRSP.)
To sustain operations, the Government would open a budget line for recurring costs for system operations and maintenance. The budget would pay the costs of:
a. Chief of operations in responsible institutions
23
b. Two technical staff in responsible institution c. Software maintenance contract d. Hardware maintenance contract e. Communication costs for central location f. Communication costs for each connected location (district level)
The NRSP would be able to support different social protection programs – more programs, less recurring costs per program. The recurring cost could also pay off by improving targeting and by attracting more donor money.
24
Table 3: Estimated times for the design, development, and launch of the NRSP.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Asset IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Appointment of responsible Capacity building in responsible institution and its IT unit. Organization institution and creation of IT unit Appointment of Employ strong process control mechanisms (technical monitoring by the design firm, managerial control from the MLSP and PCG, and Management mgmt structures supervision from the Bank). Appoint user Redefine methods, procedures, and routines in providing social Redefine methods, procedures, and routines in
Process working groups protection services – Stage 1 providing social protection services – Stage 2 Capacity building (training, Strengthen basic management, financial literacy, and computer skills of MLSP and
Knowledge study tours, …) MoF staff Project management and IS implementation training. Information Assessments and inventory Stage 1: Strategy and methods for data migration. Stage 2: Strategy and methods for data migration. Pilot stage: Supporting the PMT pilot TOR and Pilot stage: NRSP conceptual contracting of the design, TOR and contract for Stage 1: implementation Stage 2: implementation Software design firm software development firm More detailed TOR for Stage 2 Recommendations for Stage 2
TOR, procurement and installation of the TOR, procurement and installation Infrastructure first lot of equipment of the second lot of equipment
Financial Introduce the budget line for system operations, maintenance and Estimate initial and recurring costs. capital further development.
25
Table 4: Estimated budget for the design and development of the NRSP INVESTMENT Pilot Stage Stage 1 Stage 2 Total Further support for PMT pilot $ 50.000,00 $ 20.000,00 $ 70.000,00 NRSP design contract $ 250.000,00 Software development and implementation contract (includes user training, initial support and guarantee period maintenance) $ 800.000,00
Hardware purchase and installation contract (Stage 1: 50 districts; Stage 2: 23 districts+20 jamoats; +equp. for MLSP and MoF) $ - $ 250.000,00 $ 150.000,00 $ 400.000,00 Equipping and reconstruction of the central location $ 150.000,00 $ 50.000,00 $ 200.000,00 All capacity building related costs (study tours, training, project management, … $ 50.000,00 $ 100.000,00 $ 50.000,00 $ 200.000,00
TOTAL INVESTMENT NEEDED: $ 1.920.000,00
Investment from other sources:
NOTE: The RSR grant can be used to cover part of the component costs. RSR for PMT Pilot: $ -70.000,00 Considering that the RSR grant is available before the project implementation, it RSR to cover Stage 1 equipment or would be wise to use it to finance early stages of development (PMT pilot, design design contract: $ -250.000,00 contract and part of the equipment). Especially, the early start with the NRSP Capacity building component: $ -200.000,00 design contract can substantially shorten the period when Stage 1 NRSP would be available for national roll out. PROJECT COMPONENT BUDGET: $ 1.400.000,00
Annex 2 Table 5: Estimates recurrent cost of operation of the NRSP. RECURRENT COSTS (with no human resources) Monthly Annual Software maintenance contract $ 1.000,00 $ 12.000,00 Hardware maintenance contract $ 1.000,00 $ 12.000,00 Communication costs for central location $ 300,00 $ 3.600,00 Communication costs for each connected location (district level) $ 2.000,00 $ 24.000,00 Other (electricity, heating, maintenance, travel, … $ 500,00 $ 6.000,00
TOTAL: $ 57.600,00
26
Component 2: Capacity building (USD 1.2 million equivalent).
Component 2 would support training, a policy and planning unit in the MLSP, and other capacity building. (Component 1 would provide computer equipment.) At the start of implementation, the proposed Project would support a capacity assessment so that the Government can allocate equipment and training efficiently. The World Bank team conducted a preliminary capacity assessment, with the cooperation of the MLSP. The preliminary assessment established a basis for agreements with the Government on the types of capacity building activities that this component would support.
Preliminary assessment of ASP district offices and of jamoats. World Bank project team members visited 40 district and jamoat offices in early April 2011 and found favorable conditions for introduction of the NRSP at the district and the jamoat levels (Table 6).
The team gathered information on the availability of electricity and of adequate computer equipment, telephone connections, internet access, and of furniture. The team gathered information on civil servants‟ computer skills and awareness of the laws concerning social assistance. It also asked civil servants about their willingness to enter social assistance applications into an electronic system.
Table 6: District and Jamoat offices visited by the World Bank Assessment Team
RRS Khatlon Sughd GBAO Jamoats………………………………………………………………………………… Somoniyon Sebiston Isfisor Darmorakht Chorgulteppa Oksu Sirdarya Andarob Mirzo Tursonzode Shahraki Vose Gafurov Tavdem Shahrakifaizabad Guliston G.Ortiqov Tavdem Miskinobod Ziraki Sharipov Tusyon Javonon Dakhana Puloton Wer Sicharog Suchon Navobod Porshinev Sokhcharv Pastkhuf Rushan Yazgulom District-level Agencies for Social Protection Offices…………………………………. Shahrakifaizabad Kulyab City Kayrakum Darvoz G. Gafurov Shugnan Khujand City Kanibadam Source: World Bank
The Team asked approximately 20 Jamoat staff: “If you were given computers, training and internet access, but not any additional funds, would you be willing to record the applications electronically?” The Jamoat workers were eager to receive training, equipment and internet access. One Jamoat official said that the electronic intake process would make their jobs easier, as they have difficulty dealing with so much paperwork and have to work late into the evening. Another Jamoat staff member said the district- level offices of the ASP do not accept hand-written documentation, which is the only type they can produce.
27
Almost all jamoats have at least one working computer, and all Jamoats have at least one staff member that knows how to use MS World and MS Excel. Many can use a web browser. Most Jamoats that the team visited have more than one computer and use the computers for their daily work. Those who did not know how to use a web browser expressed their willingness to learn.
The jamoats visited usually receive reliable electricity from April to September, and many jamoats receive electricity from October to March. All but one of the Jamoats that do receive regular electricity is close to a line with a constant supply of electric power, so it is physically possible for them to connect to a power line.
None of the Jamoats visited had internet access, but Internet companies can deliver service through landline telephone wires. Of the 30 jamoat offices that the team visited, only five did not have a working landline telephone. Most of these had working telephones, but not a working land wire. Most offices have old, out-dated furniture that they still use for their daily work. Some offices are new but some need minor renovation.
Skills and Management Training. The Government agreed that this component would train civil servants at the central office of the MLSP, in the district-level and central offices of the Agency for Social Protection (ASP) offices, and in jamoats. It would also train community leaders, such as Mahala-e-raises and community groups, such as Mahala councils.
The training effort would concentrate on staff skills in the MLSP‟s Agency for Social Protection, which would manage and implement the NRSP and its reformed social assistance program. Training staff at the district and jamoat level would support the front line of workers who collect and process claims for social assistance. Training of the many staff at the front line would minimize skill losses to migration and turnover. The training would consist of a series of short courses, supplemented by on-the-job training, to maximize learning and skills retention.
At the start of implementation, the Component would support a capacity assessment so that the Government can allocate training (and equipment, under Component 1) efficiently. Based on the preliminary capacity assessment carried out in April 2011, the Government and the World Bank team agreed that Component 2 would support the following types of activities:
Organizational skills and operational management of daily work tasks (MLSP, ASP, Jamoats); Basic financial literacy and cash management, including: concept of accounts; assets and liabilities; debits and credits (MLSP, ASP); Information on social assistance and on outreach to collect applications for social assistance (Jamoats, MLSP, community groups and leaders); Use of desktop applications (i.e. Microsoft Office) and safe internet use (MLSP, ASP, pilot jamoats); Concepts of monitoring projects (ASP, MLSP); Leadership and strategic management skills (MLSP, ASP), and Preparation of project proposals (MLSP ASP).
Component 3: Project management (USD 0.3 million equivalent).
The EOP would be the formal implementing agency and would be responsible for financial management, procurement, and grant monitoring. The EOP would implement the project through its PCG staffed of consultants. This component would support project management and coordination and for carrying out
28 fiduciary tasks, including procurement, financial reporting and accounting activities, audit, and other reporting for the Project.
The MLSP would implement all social assistance activities supported by the Grant, and would manage all consultants who work on social assistance and on capacity building. Furthermore, the MLSP would draft terms of reference and technical specifications (subject to EOP approval of the fiduciary aspects of these documents).
The POM would define the exact roles and responsibilities of the EOP and MLSP in implementing the Project.
29
Annex 3: Implementation Arrangements
A. Project institutional and implementation arrangements
Overall implementation responsibility. The Project Coordination Group (PCG), under the Executive Office of the President (EOP), would be the formal implementing agency for the Tajikistan Social Safety Net Strengthening Project (the Project). The PCG would be headed by a Director (PCGD), who would be responsible for the overall management of the project under Component 3. The PCG would be responsible for the fiduciary aspects of financial management, procurement and compliance with the environmental safeguards (as they relate to the minor civil works and rehabilitation financed under the Project).
The Ministry of Labor and Social Protection would implement all the activities related to social protection under components 1 and 2.
Implementation of components 1 and 2. The Minister of the MLSP would appoint a technical coordinator (TC), who would coordinate the implementation of all the activities included in components 1 and 2.
The TC would rely on the Technical Working Group (TWG) of the MLSP to carry out the activities under components 1 and 2, both at the central as well as at the district and jamoat levels. The TWG would consist of qualified civil servants and consultants appointed by the Minister of the MLSP. The Project would finance the consultants required in the MLSP, as described in the approved annual project implementation plan, procurement plan and budget.
The TWG may include the following authorities of the MLSP: (i) the Chief of the Department of Social Protection; (ii) the Chief of the Unit of Social Security; (iii) the Chief of the Legal Department; (iv) a representative of the Financial Department; (v) the information technology specialist of the MLSP; (iv) Chief of the Agency for Social Protection, and (vi) designated MLSP authorities at the district-level offices of the Agency for Social Protection. The TWG may also include a representative of the Ministry of Finance.
The TC and the TWG would have the following main responsibilities:
a. Write the terms of reference (TORs) for the technical assistance and training for the implementation of all the activities under components 1 and 2 during the life of the project and send these to the PCG; b. Write the technical specifications for the services and goods to be acquired for the implementation of all the activities under components 1 and 2 during the life of the project and send these to the PCG; c. Prepare plans for study tours to be undertaken during the life of the project and submit them for approval to the Grant Coordinator through the TC of the MLSP; and d. Prepare technical specifications for the minor civil works (refurbishing) required in the MLSP‟s central and district-level offices, and in jamoats offices that benefit from the Project and submit these to the PCG.
The TC, or its designee, would be a member of the Evaluation Committee chaired by the State Investment Committee. The Evaluation Committee would open and select bids for goods, services and minor civil works and consultants for the technical assistance and training that would be required for the
30 implementation of all activities under components 1, 2 and 3 during the life of the project following World Bank procedures.
Payments for the consultants hired against the proceeds of the Project required in the implementation of all activities under components 1 and 2 must be cleared by the TC.
Implementation of component 3: project management. The Director of the Project Coordination Group PCGD would be responsible for day-to-day management of the project under component 3, including:
a. Procurement of goods, services and civil works as well as the selection of qualified consultants and training; b. Ensuring that the minor civil works undertaken against the project funds meet the safeguards included in the Environmental Management Plan and are included in the project files; c. Monitoring the progress of the agreed annual project implementation plan (including the updating of the agreed outcome and output indicators), the procurement plan and the budget on a semi- annual basis; and d. Administering incoming and outgoing project management-related communications, including translation and interpretation services, arrangement of meetings, seminars and workshops and performing all the secretarial functions required in the PCG.
Some of the above-mentioned functions would require employment of full-time specialized consultants in the PCG. These are the financial management, procurement, monitoring of project plan implementation, and administration and translation services. Other functions could be carried out by part-time consultants or by out-sourcing, or by including it as part of the terms of reference of one of the full-time positions.
The head of the EOP has designated the:
a. Chief Accounting Officer of the Central Accounting Office (CAO) of the EOP as the only authority to sign on his/her behalf: (i) all contracts for technical assistance, training, civil works, goods and services to be acquired under the project following the procedures stipulated in the project Financial Agreement; (ii) all payments for technical assistance, training and services rendered as well as goods acquired and civil works completed; and (iii) other official documents that relate to the project implementation; and the b. Head of the Department for Economic Reforms and Investment of the EOP as the focal point between the EOP and the PCGD for all the project implementation functions not being handled by the Chief Accountant of the CAO and as the only person within the EOP authorized to stamp all the signed official documents that pertain to the implementation of the project with the EOP‟s official seal.
Role of the State Investment Committee. According to the recent law enacted by the GoT the State Investment Committee of the GoT would chair the Evaluation Committee in charge of opening all the bidding proposals of contracts (for goods, services, civil works, technical assistance and training) to be financed by the project and selecting the winners following the agreed World Bank procedures.
The Project Operations Manual (POM). Before the Project becomes Effective, the EOP would agree with the World Bank team on a POM that would define the exact roles (attributions and responsibilities) of the EOP, the MLSP (TC and TWG) and the PCGD/PCG in implementing the project. Adoption of the POM would be a condition of Effectiveness for the Project.
31
B. Disbursement and financial management
The World Bank team‟s financial management specialists reviewed the financial arrangements for the Project and reached the conclusions summarized below.
Grant Financial Management Arrangements. The overall financial management arrangements for the Project, including budgeting, accounting, reporting, internal control, funds flow and audit, have been assessed to be satisfactory. The PCG installed an automated accounting system, using 1C software, which generates the interim financial reports that the PCG submits to the Bank on a quarterly basis. The team found that the PCG‟s financial consultant is experienced and has adequate knowledge of the Bank‟s financial management and disbursement procedures. However, the financial consultant does not have any signature rights and cannot sign off on any financial documents, such as payment orders or withdrawal applications. The financial consultant works closely with the Chief Accountant of the EOP. The involvement of the EOP Chief Accountant ensures a proper segregation of fiduciary responsibilities and a balanced workflow for managing and executing project financial transactions.
Overall, the actions required to fully meet the financial management requirements of the World Bank include development and adoption of a satisfactory POM and upgrading the automated accounting system already installed at PCG to include an additional database for the RSR transactions and to be able to generate IFRs specific to the Project.
The Table below lists the actions required to ensure satisfactory financial management:
Recommended Action Responsibility Deadline POM should be adopted and it should include financial management chapters, including project PCG accounting and reporting, funds flow, audit Effectiveness. arrangements, disbursement procedures, etc. Upgrade the 1C accounting system with capacity to PCG Effectiveness. generate IFRs
Budgeting and planning. PCG would develop an annual budget based on the annual project implementation plan and the annual procurement plan and submit it to the Head of the EOP for approval. The project budget would provide a reasonable comparison of the planned and implemented project activities as well as realistic time, cost estimates and targets (intermediate and final). The budget would be broken down by quarters and entered into the accounting system. Actual expenditure would be measured against the quarterly budget amounts and any variances between the budgeted and realized figures reported as part of the quarterly IFRs submitted to the Bank and the Head of the EOP for monitoring of project implementation.
Flow of Funds and Disbursements. Grant funds will flow to the PCG, through the EOP, based on Withdrawal Applications originated by the PCG. The PCG would open a designated account to facilitate the execution of payments and transactions. The PCG has demonstrated the capacity to manage funds as evidenced through the current financial management supervision results of the Public Sector Reform TA project. The PCG would also open a local currency project account to facilitate payment for local project expenditures.
Accounting and Records. Accounting is the main tool for measuring the financial status of the IDA Grant. The accounting records would record the sources of funds allocated for the implementation of the project components and the uses of such funds for grant disbursements. The Chart of Accounts is the main control tool for the accounting records. The Chart of Accounts will facilitate the tracking of
32 resources and expenditures of the project, according to its relevant account code. The PCG would retain the required supporting documentation and other records during the life of the Project and would store the records in the Governmental archive for at least two years after the completion of the project.
The PCG currently operates the 1C accounting system (a commercial application that is adapted to support project accounting, and is widely used throughout the Central Asia region) and uses the system to record and execute all project transactions. The PCG accounting system generates the interim financial reports, which the PCG submits to the Bank on a quarterly basis. The set of reports includes basic project financial data and results (by component/activity and by disbursement category). The reporting framework also supports the preparation of disbursement and withdrawal applications. The IDA Grant would draw on the current format utilized for the on-going project. However, separate reports for the IDA Grant would be required, so the PCG would need to update the system to include a database for the project transactions.
Project Financial Reporting:. The PCG established a financial management system that is capable of monitoring resources and expenditures of the Project and of generating periodic financial reports. These reports include the Statement of Sources and Uses of Funds, the Uses of Funds by Project Activities (Components & Expenditure Categories), and the Statement of Designated Account (DA). The PCG would submit these to the World Bank within 45 days of the end of each quarter. The PCG would submit the first reports after the end of the first full quarter following initial disbursement.
Internal controls. The PCG‟s internal control system was assessed and found to be capable of ensuring proper control over project activities and safeguarding project resources and assets. The POM to be developed would describe the internal control procedures, including expenditure and payment approvals, timely and complete recording of transactions, regular reconciliation of accounts and balances, segregation of duties, safeguard of data and assets, and reporting and audits, in detail. The PCG will act as follows:
a. Use all funds in accordance with the financing arrangements and regulations in the World Bank‟s “Disbursement Handbook” and “Financial Management and Internal Control Procedures” in general, and with contracts signed with eligible contractors in particular; b. Procure goods and services in accordance with the World Bank procedures and the approved procurement plan; and c. Keep all necessary supporting documents, records, and accounts on the Project‟s activities, including expenditures reported by the SOEs. d. Describe responsibilities of the various parties, in particular the roles of the MLSP, EOP and MOF.
Audit Arrangements. There would be an annual financial audit of the IDA Grant. The first and last audit periods may be increased to cover marginal periods in the event that implementation or disbursements is unexpectedly delayed or extended10. The scope of the audit would require the auditors to provide an opinion on the project‟s financial statements as well as to include a management letter drawing attention to any internal control matters discovered in the course of the audit. The PCG would contract with a private firm that would conduct the audit in accordance with the World Bank‟s procurement guidelines. The PCG would prepare the auditors' terms of reference (TORs) and the Bank would clear the ToR before the PCG engages the auditor. The PCG would submit audit reports to the Bank no later than six months after the end of the fiscal year to which they relate. The following table identifies the audit reports that the PCG would be required to be submit:
10 See 2003 Guidelines: Annual Financial Reporting and Auditing for World Bank-Financed Activities (Financial Management Sector Board).
33
Audit Report Due Date Separate Project financial statements. Within six months of the end of each The PFSs to include Statement of Sources and Uses of Funds, Uses of fiscal year and at the close of the Project. Funds by Project Activity, SOE Withdrawal Schedule, DA Statement and Notes to the financial statements.
The PCG would make the audited project financial statements publicly available in a manner satisfactory to the Bank. Upon receipt, the World Bank would disclose the audited project financial statements to the public in accordance with the Bank‟s Access to Information Policy.
Disbursements. Disbursements would follow the transaction-based method, meaning reimbursements with full documentation, SOEs, direct payments and special commitments. The PCG would request withdrawals from the grant account in accordance with the guidance provided in the Disbursement Letter.
The World Bank would disburse funds on the basis of full documentation for eligible expenditures against contracts under goods, works and consulting firms valued US$100,000 and above, and for individual consultants costing US$50,000 and above. The World Bank would disburse against Statement of Expenditures for contracts below these limits, and for training, social assistance transfers and incremental operating costs under such terms and conditions as the Bank shall specify by notice to the Recipient. The PCG would retain the required supporting documentation and other records for at least one year after the receipt by the Bank of the audit report for the year in which the last disbursement was made. The documentation would be made available for review by independent auditors and by visiting World Bank staff upon request.
C. Procurement
Procurement capacity. The PCG, under the EOP, which was established to implement the ongoing Public Sector Reform Project, would carry out project procurement. The EOP is a reputable institution and has satisfactory procurement performance under the ongoing project during the past years.
The EOP would base its procurement on draft terms of reference and technical specifications submitted by the Project‟s TWG. The TWG would include officials from the MLSP, the MoF who are not much with the Bank's procurement policies and guidelines and with its various standard-bidding documents. Procurement packages will be developed to ensure competition in the market for the procured items. To facilitate timely implementation of the procurement plan, terms of reference and for the initial procurement tasks will be prepared prior to effectiveness. The procurement risk is rated as high.
The main procurement risk would be potential delay with preparation of quality bidding documents, including technical specifications for different contract packages and terms of reference for consultant assignments. The Bank team will closely supervise and monitor the procurement processes and provide support to build capacity in procurement. To further mitigate risk, the POM will describe the procurement processes clearly and EOP staff will apply the PM during project implementation. To mitigate this risk, the EOP would review these documents to assure consistency with the Guidelines; and provide specialized support especially on IT issues through hiring a qualified consultant.
Applicable Guidelines. Procurement for the Project would be carried out in accordance with the World Bank‟s:
"Guidelines: Procurement under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits" published in January 2011 (Procurement Guidelines); and
34
"Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers" published in January 2011 (Consultant Guidelines); and the Provisions stipulated in the Financing Agreement.
Procurement Plan. The initial procurement plan would cover all procurement for the project period. The GoT and the World Bank would discuss and agree on the procurement plan at Negotiations. The GoT would update the procurement plan annually, or as required, to reflect actual project needs. Each update would be subject to the World Bank‟s prior review. The World Bank would publish the initial procurement plan and subsequent updates on its external web site in line with the requirements of World Bank Guidelines. The POM would explain procurement arrangements in detail.
Summary of the Procurement Packages included in the procurement plan:
Goods. Procurement of computer equipment and software to establish operational computerized system for the jamoat, district, and central MLSP offices; office furniture and equipment; printing of information materials. International Competitive Bidding would be used for the computerized system. All other procurement packages are small and would be procured through shopping procedure.
Minor Works. Refurbishing parts of the MLSP central and two regional offices are expected to cost less than US$20,000 each, and thus Shopping procedure would be used.
Consultant Services. PCG would procure contracts with companies for the design and development of software, and training of government specialists, through the Selection Based on Consultants Qualifications (CQS)method. It would procure the services of individual consultants for small assignments related to project management, development of software and related training.
Training activities. Training would include project grant-related study tours. The EOP would prepare the estimated budget, list of participants and draft agenda for each training event, which would be subject to the World Bank review. Expenditure items for training activities, including study tours would be paid out of operating costs.
Expenditure Contract Value Procurement Method Bank Prior Review Category (US$) >=100,000 ICB All the ICB contracts Goods ≤100,000 Shopping The first one Shopping contract NA DC All DC contracts Works < 100,000 Shopping The 1st Shopping contract >=200,000 QCBS, QBS, FBS, LCS All contracts above US$ 100,000 ≤200,000 CQS for firms plus the 1st CQS contract Consultant regardless of value; and all Services NA SSS NA IC contracts above US$ 50,000 for individuals; and all SSS contracts. Note: CQS = Selection Based on Consultants‟ Qualification DC = Direct Contracting FBS = Fixed Budget Selection IC = Individual Consultant selection procedure ICB = International Competitive Bidding LCS = Least Cost Selection NA = Not applicable QBS = Quality Based Selection QCBS = Quality and Cost Based Selection SSS = Single (or Sole) Source Selection
35
Repbulic of Tajikistan Social Safety Net Strengthening Project
PROCUREMENT PLAN - GOODS AND WORKS for September 2011 - December 2015 План закупок товаров и работ на период с сентября 2011 по декабря 2015 (Date of PP: 05/03/2011; Update No.1; Date of WB NOL: ______) (Дата ПЗ:05/03/2011; Обновление № 1; Дата одобрения ВБ: ______)
Compone WB WB No- Cost Estimated Date of WB No- Date of Bid Date of Date of nt Plan vs Procu. Review Date of Bid objection Item № Table Contract Ref. № Contract Description Cost (TJS Draft BD to objection Invitation Evaluation Contract Contract Referenc Actual Method (Prior/ Opening to Contract Codes equivalent) WB to BD to Bids Report Signing Completion e as per Post) Award PAD Ссылка Обзор Конкурс. Одобрение Коды на Банка Одобрени документ Вскрытие ВБ на Подписан согласно компоне План и Бюджет Метод (предв е ВБ на Объявлен Оценочн Завершение № Пункта № Контракта Описание контракта на конкурсн присужден ие Таблице нты Факт (TJS) закупок арит./п конкурс. ие ый отчет контракта рассмотр ых заявок ие контракта Затрат согласно оследу док. ение ВБ контракта Документ ющ.) у об GOODS/ТОВАРЫ Component #1, National Registry for Social Protection
Procurement of Equipment Plan/План ICB prior 11/10/2011 11/24/2011 12/8/2011 1/24/2012 2/24/2012 3/8/2012 3/22/2012 8/1/2012 Component-1 SSNSP/ICB/2012/03 for the central location of the registry in Dushanbe Actual/Факт
Procurement of Workstations Plan/План ICB prior 2/1/2013 2/16/2013 2/28/2013 4/16/2013 4/30/2013 5/16/2013 5/30/2013 5/30/2014 Component-1 SSNSP/ICB/2013/01 for 30 districts and jamoats Actual/Факт
Plan/План ICB prior 8/20/2012 9/6/2012 9/20/2012 10/20/2012 11/1/2012 11/15/2012 12/1/2013 12/1/2014 Software development and Component-1 SSNSP/ICB/2012/02 implementation contract Actual/Факт
Component #3, Project Management
Procurement of office Plan/План SH prior 10/20/2011 11/4/2011 11/18/2011 NA 12/20/2011 1/2/2012 1/4/2012 3/6/2012 Component-3 SSNSP/SH/2011/01 equipment and furniture for PCG Actual/Факт Plan/План Actual/Факт Total Goods
WORKS Component #1, National Registry for Social Protection Rehabilitation of the offices Component-1 SSNP/SH/2013/01 for the central computer Plan/План SH post 2/1/2013 2/16/2013 2/28/2013 NA 3/15/2013 4/1/2013 5/5/2013 11/30/2013 servers for the registry Component #2, Capacity Building Rehabiliation of 10 district Plan/План SH post 2/1/2013 2/16/2013 2/28/2013 NA 3/15/2013 4/1/2013 5/5/2013 11/30/2013 offices of the Agency for Component 2 SSNP/SH/2013/02_09 Social Protection (10 Actual/Факт packages) Total Works
Total Goods and Works
36
Republic of Tajikistan Social Safety Net Strengthening Project
PROCUREMENT PLAN - CONSULTANTS and TRAINING- September 2011 - December 2015 ПЛАН ЗАКУПОК УСЛУГ КОНСУЛЬТАНТОВ (по методу CQS - отбор по квалификации консультанта или индивидуала) (Date of PP: 05/03/2011; Update No.1; Date of WB NOL: ______) (Дата ПЗ:05/03/2011; Обновление № 1; Дата одобрения ВБ: ______)
Evaluation WB No- WB No- Component Estimated WB No- Request for RFP Date of Date of Cost Table Firm or Select. WB Review report for objection Proposal Draft Final objection Item № Reference as Contract Ref. Contract Description Plan vs Actual Cost (TJS Draft TOR objection Exp. Of Issued (for Contract Contract Remarks Codes Ind. Method (Prior/ Post) Short list to RFP/ Submission Contract to Draft per PAD equivalent) to TOR Interest CQS) Signing Completion & RFP Short list Contract Ссылка на Обзор Оцен. Одобрен Одобрени Коды Фирма Срок Проект компоненты Банка Запрос на отчет по ие ВБ на е ВБ на Подписан Завершен согласно Бюджет или Метод Одобрени Выпуск подачи финальн Consulting согласно № Контракта Описание контракта План и Факт (предварит./ Проект ТЗ выраж. краткому ППП и финальн ие ие Примечания Таблице (TJS) Индив отбора е ВБ ППП предложен ого Документу об последующ. заинт списку и краткий ый контракта контракта Затрат идуал ий контракта Оценке ) ППП список контракт Проекта Consulting (Component 1, National Registry for Social Protection)
Plan/План Firm QCBS 11/10/2011 11/24/2011 12/8/2011 1/24/2012 2/24/2012 3/8/2012 3/22/2012 4/1/2012 4/8/2012 4/15/2012 Design of National Registry for Component-1 SSNSP/QCBS/2011/01 prior Social Protection Actual/Факт
Consulting (Component #2, Capacity Building)
Assessment of the MLSP's Planned/План 11/22/2011 12/6/2011 12/20/2011 2/2/2012 2/16/2012 3/1/2012 3/31/2012 4/16/2012 4/30/2012 5/14/2012 7/16/2012 component-2 SSNSP/CQS/2011/01 priority needs for capacity Firm CQS prior building. Actual/Факт
Planned/План 11/22/2011 12/6/2011 12/20/2011 2/2/2012 2/16/2012 NA 3/31/2012 4/16/2012 4/30/2012 5/14/2012 11/14/2015 Ind. IC prior Actual/Факт
Planned/План 11/22/2011 12/6/2011 12/20/2011 2/2/2012 2/16/2012 NA 3/31/2012 4/16/2012 4/30/2012 5/14/2012 11/14/2015 SSNSP/IC/2011/01 Ind. IC prior Policy and Planning Consultants Actual/Факт SSNSP/IC/2011/02 component-2 (4) at MLSP (average of USD SSNSP/IC/2011/03 12,000/c) Planned/План 11/22/2011 12/6/2011 12/20/2011 2/2/2012 2/16/2012 NA 3/31/2012 4/16/2012 4/30/2012 5/14/2012 11/14/2015 SSNSP/IC/2011/04 Ind. IC prior Actual/Факт
Planned/План 11/22/2011 12/6/2011 12/20/2011 2/2/2012 2/16/2012 NA 3/31/2012 4/16/2012 4/30/2012 5/14/2012 11/14/2015 Ind. IC prior Actual/Факт Administrator/Secretary to the Planned/План 11/22/2011 12/6/2011 12/20/2011 2/2/2012 NA NA 3/31/2012 4/16/2012 NA 5/14/2012 11/14/2015 component-2 SSNSP/IC/2011/05 Ind. IC post P&P Consultants Actual/Факт Total Consultants
Training
TOR, list of participants, Planned/План N/A N/A budget to be 9/20/2011 10/4/2011 component-2 N/A Study Tour's review ed by the Bank
Actual/Факт
Note: All dates, costs prior 7/20/2012 8/1/2012 8/15/2012 8/23/2012 9/1/2012 9/5/2012 9/20/2012 10/1/2012 10/8/2012 10/15/2012 Package 1: Training (content to be Planned/План and procurement component-2 Firm CQS decided by capacity assessment) methods will be defined Actual/Факт and agreed after Planned/План post 8/20/2012 9/1/2012 9/15/2012 9/23/2012 N/A 10/5/2012 10/20/2012 11/1/2012 N/A 11/15/2012 Note: All dates, costs Package 2: Training (content to be component-2 Firm CQS and procurement decided by capacity assessment) Actual/Факт methods will be defined and agreed after
Package 3: Training for central Planned/План post 9/20/2012 10/1/2012 10/15/2012 10/23/2012 N/A 11/5/2012 11/20/2012 12/1/2012 N/A 12/15/2012 Note: All dates, costs staff of the Agency for Social and procurement component-2 Protection w ho operate the Firm CQS methods will be defined registry (content to be decided by and agreed after capacity assessment) Actual/Факт capacity assessment.
Note: All dates, costs Planned/План post 10/22/2012 11/1/2012 11/15/2012 11/23/2012 N/A 12/5/2012 12/20/2012 1/1/2013 N/A 1/15/2013 Package 4: Training (content to be and procurement component-2 Firm CQS decided by capacity assessment) methods will be defined Actual/Факт and agreed after Note:capacity All assessment. dates, costs Package 5: Training (content to be Planned/План post 11/20/2012 N/A 12/15/2012 12/23/2012 N/A 1/5/2013 1/20/2013 2/1/2013 N/A 2/15/2013 component-2 Firm CQS and procurement decided by capacity assessment) methods will be defined Actual/Факт and agreed after Total Training
Total Consultants and Training 37
Republic of Tajikistan Social Safety Net Strengthening Project
PROCUREMENT PLAN - Operating Costs - September 2011 - December 2015 ПЛАН ЗАКУПОК УСЛУГ КОНСУЛЬТАНТОВ (по методу CQS - отбор по квалификации консультанта или индивидуала) (Date of PP: 28/04/2011; Update No.2; Date of WB NOL: ______) (Дата ПЗ:28/04/2011; Обновление № 2; Дата одобрения ВБ: ______)
WB Evaluation WB No- WB No- Date of Estimated WB No- Request for RFP Date of Plan vs Firm Select. Review Draft report for objection Proposal Draft Final objection Contract Item № Contract Ref. Contract Description Cost (TJS objection Exp. Of Issued (for Contract Remarks Actual or Ind. Method (Prior/ TOR Short list & to RFP/ Submission Contract to Draft Completio equivalent) to TOR Interest CQS) Signing Post) RFP Short list Contract n
Обзор Оцен. Одобрени Одобрени Фирма Срок Проект Банка Запрос на отчет по е ВБ на е ВБ на Подписан Завершен Бюджет или Метод Проект Одобрени Выпуск подачи финальн № Пункта № Контракта Описание контракта План и Факт (предва выраж. краткому ППП и финальн ие ие Примечания (TJS) Индив отбора ТЗ е ВБ ППП предложен ого рит./пос заинт списку и краткий ый контракта контракта идуал ий контракта ледующ ППП список контракт .) Component #3, Project Management
Consultant in PCG: Grant Planned/План Ind IC prior Calculated according to the PCG component-3 SSNSS/OC/2011/01 Coordinator fee rate Actual/Факт
Planned/План Ind IC prior Calculated according to the PCG component-3 SSNSS/OC/2011/02 Consultant in PCG: Accountant fee rate Actual/Факт
Consultant in PCG: Procurement Planned/План Ind IC prior Calculated according to the PCG component-3 SSNSS/OC/2011/03 Consultant fee rate Actual/Факт
Planned/План Ind IC Consultant in PCG: IT prior component-3 SSNSS/OC/2011/04 Consultant (half time) Actual/Факт
Planned/План Ind IC prior Consultant in PCG: Monitoring component-3 SSNSS/OC/2011/05 and evaluation Consultant Actual/Факт
Consultant in PCG: Consultant Planned/План Ind IC prior component-3 SSNSS/OC/2011/06 on Legal issues (one quarter time) Actual/Факт
Consultant in PCG: Planned/План Ind IC prior Calculated according to the PCG component-3 SSNSS/OC/2011/07 Administrator/translator fee rate Actual/Факт
Planned/План post G SH Calculated according to the component-3 Utilities current PCG expenditures Actual/Факт
Planned/План post G SH component-3 Automobile fuel Actual/Факт
Planned/План post Communications: Internet G SH component-3 connections, telephone, mobile Actual/Факт
Planned/План prior According to the annually Firm LCS component-3 Financial audit conducted Block Audit in Actual/Факт Tajikistan
Paper and misc. office Planned/План G SH post component-3 supplies, books, and small appliances Actual/Факт
Planned/План prior Calculated according to the component-3 Training's of PCG staff current PCG expenditures Actual/Факт
Planned/План post Calculated according to the component-3 Social Protection Fund (25%) current PCG expenditures Actual/Факт Total operating costs 38
Procurement Supervision. The Procurement Specialist in the World Bank country office would supervise procurement aspects of the Project. In addition, one ex-post review per fiscal year would be conducted for the contracts that are not subject to Bank prior review on a sample basis (20 percent in terms of number of contracts).
The thresholds for procurement methods and for the World Bank‟s prior review appear in the table above.
A full-day project launch workshop would be conducted including the CAO staff, representatives of the EOP, the PCGD and PCG, the TC and TWG and other concerned institutions and international agencies involved in the project implementation to review the implementation arrangements, including the fiduciary aspects of financial management, procurement and environmental safeguards.
Project Operational Manual. Prior to Effectiveness, the Government and the World Bank would agree on a POM that would specify that: (i) the general description of various items under different expenditure category; (ii) the different procurement methods or consultant selection methods, (iii) estimated costs, (iv) prior review requirements; (v) types of contracts; and (vi) filing and addressing procurement-related complaints.
D. Environmental and Social (including safeguards)
The Project would be limited to minor rehabilitation and refurbishment of central and several rayon (district) and jamoat (sub-district) offices of the MLSP. The envisaged civil works would not include any structural repairs or new constructions, and would not include any excavation or generation of significant quantities of construction debris. Accordingly, this Project received a Category C environmental rating.
The POM would include the Environmental Management Plan for the World Bank-financed Tajikistan Community and Basic Health Project formulated in October 2005 and revised in February 2009 as the Plan is applicable to address any possible environmental consequences of these minor civil works to be undertaken under the Project.
E. Project Monitoring & Evaluation (M&E)
Updating of the project’s results framework and progress of the project’s annual implementation plan. Project outcomes and results would be assessed using the PCG‟s Monitoring & Evaluation (M&E) system to track progress on the indicators specified in the results framework. The system would draw on (i) multiple information sources and instruments, including special surveys and studies; (ii) technical audits; and (iii) quarterly Project Management and Progress Reports.
The PCGD, through the monitoring specialist in the PCG would provide updated information before the arrival of a World Bank implementation support mission or any other frequency agreed with the EOP and the World Bank at appraisal on the: (i) progress done in the implementation of the annual project implementation plan in a template previously agreed by the EOP and the World Bank; and (ii) all the intermediate outcome indicators appearing in the agreed results framework. The M&E specialist of the PCG would be responsible for overall data collection, analysis, and timely reporting on project progress and related key performance indicators. The specialist would liaise with the TC/TWG of the MLSP in the center and in the project districts and jamoats in preparing the progress reports.
If required, the monitoring specialist in the PCG would assist the World Bank in the collection of needed data to facilitate the undertaking of the impact evaluation study of the two pilots that would be financed
39 by the World Bank-managed part of the RSR grant through a qualified consulting firm or consultant according to TORs satisfactory to the World Bank.
In addition, and outside of the project‟s funds, the World Bank-implemented part of a recently approved Rapid Social Response grant would support studies and, most importantly, a statistical evaluation study of the pilot of reform of social assistance in two regions of the country, currently under implementation.
Project Management and Progress Reports. Semi-annual Project Management and Progress Reports, prepared by the PCGD through the PCG in consultation with the MLSP, would examine compliance of the Project‟s procedures, as specified in the POM. These reports would rely on qualitative data collection (beneficiary population surveys, among others) and quantitative data (project outcome indicators and intermediate outcome indicators and other relevant indicators) to provide answers to key questions about the Project‟s operations and performance. These semi-annual reports would be submitted to the World Bank by the PCGD. These types of evaluations and reporting are particularly important for understanding how the Project evolves and if the quality and effectiveness of the social assistance included in the project improves over time. It is also important for identifying unanticipated bottlenecks and design mechanisms that may hinder implementation or negatively affect project objectives. Accordingly, in-depth reporting is planned for the purpose of the midterm review, while the progress report prior to project closing would aim at evaluating project outcomes and lessons learned.
F. Role of Partners
The GoT committed itself to strengthen its system of social assistance as part of its budget support arrangements with both the EU and the World Bank. This reflects a degree of determination by both the GoT and donors. Accordingly, the EU is currently providing technical and financial assistance to the MLSP for the development and design of a pilot targeting, registry and payments mechanism as a vehicle for channeling poverty-targeted social assistance transfers in two districts (rayons). The project builds upon this pilot. The World Bank and the EU signed a Memorandum of Understanding on June 11, 2010 on cooperation to support the pilot.
40
Annex 4 Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF)
Project Development Objective(s)
The development objective of the proposed Project is to improve the capacity of the Government of Tajikistan to plan, monitor, and manage social assistance for the poor through the development of a national registry of social protection and the provision of training, equipment and related items for improving said capacity.
PDO Level Results Indicators: 1. Coverage of the registry: the share of households, in percentage points, with records in the registry (NRSP or Pilot); 2. Eligibility compliance: the share of applicant households that were correctly classified as eligible or ineligible;
3. Payments compliance: (i) percent of payments from the Treasury that are disbursed by the payment agent; and (ii) the estimated percent of payments from the payment agent that are received by the beneficiaries.
4. Use of the registry for planning and budgeting.
Risk Category Risk Rating Risk Description Proposed Mitigation Measures
Project Stakeholder Risks Medium-I 1. Reduced Government commitment (at the 1. The Project preparation has involved technical Presidential and ministerial levels) to social teams, which are likely to remain even if there is a assistance reforms because of leadership changes. leadership change.
2. Individual opposition to new social assistance 2. The RSR grant will support two public information program. campaigns that will explain the reasons for the new 3. Civil servants may implement the new systems poverty targeting mechanism. Moreover, the MLSP slowly or poorly. can request and receive support, under the Project, for a further public information campaign to build public support for the changes.
3. The Government will involve traditional leaders and community groups in outreach to isolated and
41
Risk Category Risk Rating Risk Description Proposed Mitigation Measures
semi-literate households. Implementing Agency Risks Medium-I 1. Lack of capacity at the district and jamuat levels 1. The Government will involve community may constrain implementation of the social organizations and local leaders for outreach. assistance program. 2. The exact roles and responsibilities of each agency 2. Lack of coordination between the MSLP and the in terms of oversight will be detailed in the POM for EOP-PCG the IDA-supported Project.
3. Errors and abuse due to poor control systems. 3. The current manual process in managing the social assistance program will be replaced with the creation of a registry system, which should reduce the opportunity for fraud and error. Moreover, the Project will build capacity to audit payments of social assistance. Project Risks
Design Medium-I 1. Unified national registry does not meet the needs 1. The registry for pilot reform will inform the design of the specific social assistance programs, and is not of the national registry. useful to the civil servants implementing the program, with the result that information is not updated. 2. Government and the team will review the 2. Registry delayed. implementation schedule and adjust, if this risk seems high.
3. Many households that should receive benefits do 3. The Project will minimize exclusion from not receive it. benefits of households that should receive benefits by supporting a registry that applies a proxy means test-based formula for identifying the poor. Social and Low 1. No social or environmental risks are posed. The PoM will include a detailed annex on Environmental environmental procedures for the light civil works (rehabilitation). Program and Donor Medium-L 1. Registry for the pilot does not serve the long- 1. The World Bank team is collaborating with the term needs of the MLSP and the MoF for the EU team on the technical level, in the development national program. of the pilot registry to ensure compatibility. A MoU has been established between the World Bank and
42
Risk Category Risk Rating Risk Description Proposed Mitigation Measures
the EU to formalize this collaboration. The ADB is also interested in supporting this project. The Government will receive support from an IT consultant in operating and improving the database for the pilot. Delivery Quality Medium-I 1. Delays in the readiness of the registry and other 1. The Government is already committed to a schedule technical systems could compromise national for national roll out of the reform of social assistance launching of program. through its budget support agreement with the EU. The EU, ADB, and World Bank will discuss this with 2. Reform is not sustainable due to lack of the Government as part of their budget support. government budget for social assistance payments Moreover, the Project includes a relatively large to beneficiaries. component for capacity building.
3. Lack of adequate monitoring and evaluation. 2. Together with EU and ADB partners, the team will propose ways to limit the cost by narrowing coverage to less than the present 20 percent of the population. A reduction in benefit is possible, but will limit poverty impact.
3. The projects itself builds monitoring capacity through the registry. The Project funds monitoring and evaluation by both the PCG and the MLSP.
Overall Risk Rating at Overall Risk Rating During Comments Preparation Implementation Medium-I The team has revised the risk ratings from Medium-L Medium-I to Medium-I for preparation and implementation as recommended by the ILRT at the concept stage.
43
Annex 5: Implementation Support Plan
Partner groups. The World Bank team would help the GoT to implement the Project by working with groups of officials with common interests. The most important of these is the Technical Working Group, for the Project, which would include officials from the MLSP, the MoF, and relevant consultants. Furthermore, the World Bank team asked the GoT to form an Information User Group to define their needs, as a way of assuring the registry is useful to the civil servants implementing the Project.
Support team staffing. The World Bank implementation support team would include an IT and a registry specialist who would advise the Technical Working Group and the Project Coordination Group on the principles for preparation of technical specification for IT and terms of reference for IT consultants.
IT support. The Technical Working Group and the Project Coordination Group might not have the specialized expertise necessary to write technical specifications for software and hardware, and to check whether suppliers have met these specifications. Under the Project, the PCG can hire a consultant specialized in procurement of IT. The Bank support team would also advise the Project Coordination Group on general IT procurement issues and on recruitment of its own IT consultants.
Delays in the readiness of the registry and other technical systems could compromise the national rollout of targeted social assistance program. In this case, the World Bank team‟s consultant could work w ith the Software User Group to modify the technical specifications for the registry so that the immediately necessary functionality of the registry is ready in time for the rollout, and the rest of the functionally is added later. The World Banks team‟s IT and registry experts would monitor regularly the progress of the software development firm so that they would know well in advance whether modifications to the technical specifications are advisable.
Support to fraud and error reduction. All transfer programs carry risk of fraud and errors. The IT Consultant that would work with the User Group would ensure that the Software user group addresses data integrity issues in the technical specifications. The Bank support team‟s IT and registry specialists would review the technical specifications to verify that they address data integrity issues.
Support to poverty-targeting. The World Bank support team includes consultants who have experience with public information campaigns, who would advise the MLSP on how to design and execute information campaigns so that they are effective at winning acceptance at the community level. Moreover and when new data become available, the Bank support team would revise the scoring formula to reduce the exclusion of poor households from eligibility.
Financial management. The Bank would provide risk-based implementation support, initially every six months during the first year, and this would be reviewed during the subsequent years, based on assessment of risks and the status of the financial management arrangements. During the implementation support missions, the FM team would review the FM systems for continued adequacy, evaluating the quality of the budgets and implementing agencies‟ adherence thereto, reviewing the IFRs and/or annual Financial Statements, compliance with FM part of POM and follow up on both internal and external audit reports.
Support to fiscal sustainability. Finally, there is a risk that the reform is not sustainable due to lack of government budget for social assistance payments to beneficiaries. Together with EU and ADB partners, the team would propose ways to limit the cost by narrowing coverage to less than the present 20 percent of the population.
44
Main focus in terms of support to implementation: Time Focus Skills Needed Resource Partner Role Estimate/FY First twelve Development of IT expertise; IT specialist: PCG will hire an IT months software for registry Registry expertise; USD 40,000 specialist to advise on experience writing procurement of the NRSP technical IT procurement design contract and of the specifications specialist: software development USD 30,000 contract, from the proceeds of the Grant. 12-48 months Outreach Experience with USD 60,000 Role for community information committees in outreach. campaigns;
Experience working USD 60,000 with community groups FY12-FY16 Technical Quality Technical and US$100,000 Cooperation with EU. assurance and fiduciary fiduciary Role for community compliance committees is monitoring.
Skills mix required Skills Needed Number of Staff Number of Trips/FY Weeks/FY Registry expertise 6 2 Outreach & community participation 5 2 Operations specialist 16 0 Procurement-general 2 0 Procurement-IT specialist 3 0 Financial management 2 0 Task team leader 8 2
Partners Institution/Country Role Asia Development Bank Budget support European Commission Technical assistance for the pilot, Budget support
45
Annex 6: Team Composition
World Bank staff and consultants who worked on the project:
Name Title Unit
Robin Audy Evaluation specialist Consultant Gabriel Francis Program assistant ECSHD Joseph Paul Formoso Senior finance officer CTRFC Elena Glinskaya Country sector coordinator for human development ECSH3 Shafique Jamal Public policy analyst and IT analyst Consultant Dilshod Karimova Procurement Analyst ECS02 Joost de Laat Economist ECSH4 Erkin Mamadaliev Operations specialist Consultant Kenneth Mwenda Counsel LEGEM Shodi Nazarov Procurement analyst ECS03 Marvori Odilkhonova Operations specialist Consultant John Otieno Ogallo Senior procurement specialist ECS03 Juan Prawda Operations specialist Consultant Menahem Prywes Task team leader and senior economist ECSH3 Alisher Rajabov Poverty economist Consultant Zlatan Sabic Information technology and registry specialist Consultant Oleksiy Sluchynskyy Senior Economist SASHD Ireneusz Smolewski Senior procurement specialist ECS02 Yelena Vinogradova Social assistance and operations specialist Consultant Shoira Zhukhurova Team assistant ECCTJ
46
MAP 33493
47
IBRD 33493R N ° 38 60 Miles 80 Kilometers CHINA 40 60 40 u 20 ks '
l A u k 20 g n SELECTED CITIES AND TOWNS AUTONOMOUS OBLAST CENTER* OBLAST CENTERS CAPITAL NATIONAL MAIN ROADS RAILROADS (SUB-DISTRICT) BOUNDARIES JAMOAT (DISTRICT) BOUNDARIES RAYON AUTONOMOUS OBLAST BOUNDARY* OBLAST BOUNDARIES BOUNDARIES INTERNATIONAL a Rangkul' R Rangkul' 0 0 TAJIKISTAN * Area with no oblast-level administrative divisions, where rayons are under direct republic jurisdiction. E This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information Bank on the part of The World shown on this map do not imply, or any Group, any judgment on the legal status of territory, endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. ° b a 74 g r u Murgab M
b
a r i 0 g r r u m 20 2 20 u
h
a a
c
P P
M i l Kulob Baljuvon Moskva Shurobod Khovaling Muminobod Pandjakent Ayni Shahriston Zafarobod Istaravshan Ghonchi Spitamen Matchin Jabor Rasulob Kuhistoni Mastchoh Ghafurov Konibodom Asht Isfara Alichur A Alichur N ° 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 40 To Osh Lake Karakul' A.O. h Pik Lenin c Murghob Nosir Khusrav Shahrituz Qabodiyon Jilikul Khuroson Qumsangir Bokhtar Kolkhozobod Jomi Vakshs Yovon Sarband Panj Danghara Farkhor Norak Vose Sovet (7134 m ) h
Lake k u GHORNO- 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 Rukhch R Rukhch Sarezskoye s
BADAKHSHAN
r
g g
n n (6723 m )
g
a a
t
t n
r
r Pik Karl Marx
a
a a B B
i r
9
j Tursunzoda Shahrinav Rudaki Hissor Varzob Fayzobod Vahdat Roghun Nurobod Rasht Tojikobod Tavildara Jirgatol Darvoz Vanj Ishkoshim Roshtqala Rushon Shughnon j
8
PAKISTAN Vrang V Vrang n
19 1 n 19 a
18 1 a 18 P P E 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Rayons ° 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 E 7 ° m
17 1 17 (6,974 m) 72 m g i o h 6 b To r
a s Pik Revolution o 5 16 1 16 o a r k Pik Imeni h Sary-Tash 15 1 15 a KYRGYZ REP. (7495 m ) h j Khorog K Khorog d s Ishkashim I Ishkashim n P n 3 a Andarob A Andarob Ismail Samani Vanj V Vanj 13 1 13
To To Andijon Kyzyl-Kiya To 2 ' l Andijon 12 1 12 a t a g r UZBEKISTAN i Jirgatal' Jirgatal' J 1 4 11 1 11 m m 14 1 14 u o
h
d
k
o i
a
a b y y a
i l r r
a a n
a
D
D 8
o
Kalaikhum Kalaikhum K
j j
n n
r
r Konibodom Konibodom K a
58 5 a 58
P P y
y 0
a 7
S S t REGION 1 10 n y 57 5 57 h KHATLON s e a a l 6 l g Rasht R Rasht 56 5 56 r a e 4 Valley Valley V E F r 3 44 4 44 9 2 ° Fergana a E72 43 4 43 ° y h 42 4 42 i s k d o s m a r b v b 1 0 a a Reservoir o 9 5 Taboshar Taboshar T Kayrakkum a k
g 4 l 41 4 41 40 4 40 i k
s
n n 39 3 39 55 5 55 o s 8
b 54 5 54
o
a a
v
h h m
b
ObigarmO Obigarm o
d Moskovskiy Moskovskiy M
s s l o
a
v v
n
s o e e 8
y a To a 3 k 7
k
l a
r r m e
j
38 3 38
h
e e u g 53 5 g 53 37 3 37 r o Tashkent
d
Z Chkolovsk Z Chkolovsk C u Kulyab K
Komsomolabad Komsomolabad K
o n 2 n Nurek N Nurek 6 h 1
7 52 5 52
6 a Khodjand K a Khodjand 51 5 51 5 4
36 3 36
j R e R 35 3 35 34 3 34
n -
b - - AFGHANISTAN 0 a a
u
- r i i y y 50 5 50
3 Pyanj P Pyanj n Ura- U Tyube T Ura- Tyube
a
a a 33 3 33
e
9
l l 1 g 2 b 49 4 49 r 0 31 3 31
u 32 3 32
To
u A A 30 3 30 y
5
Kurgan- K Tyube T Kurgan- Tyube
9 Baghlan To 7
8
s s 29 2 29 8 47 4 47 Tashkent
48 4 48
6 E
7 n n 28 28 2
5 B 6
46 4 46 27 27 2
a a 25 25 2 26 26 2
N
4 r r
i
3 A
T n T 4 y KAZAKHSTAN H 24 24 2 2 Ayni A Ayni i S t
u
U
h
v h
s s
h h k 3 k a a V a V DUSHANBE D r E70 23 23 2 a ° 1 To Garavuti Garavuti G Bukhoro 68 z u 2 t E70 r t ° 22 22 2 h n 5 a 1 e 68 45 4 45 h k 21 21 2 i SOGD Shahrtuz ShahrtuzS h REGION z d n e Pendzhikent Pendzhikent P TAJIKISTAN Region under subordination direct Republic To Qarshi To N N ° ° Bukhoro UZBEKISTAN 40 38
MAY 2007