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Universiv Mioisilms International INFORMATION TO USERS This was produced from a copy of a document sent to us for microfilming. While the most advanced technological means to photograph and reproduce this document have been used, the quality is heavily dependent upon the quality of the material submitted. The following explanation of techniques is provided to help you understand markings or notations which may appear on this reproduction. 1. The sign or “target” for pages apparently lacking from the document photographed is “Missing Page(s)”. If it was possible to obtain the missing page(s) or section, they are spliced into the film along with adjacent pages. This may have necessitated cutting through an image and duplicating adjacent pages to assure you of complete continuity. 2. When an image on the film is obliterated with a round black mark it is an indication that the film inspector noticed either blurred copy because of movement during exposure, or duplicate copy. 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ZEEB ROAD, ANN ARBOR, Ml 48106 18 BEDFORD ROW, LONDON WCIR 4EJ, ENGLAND 79ÜR827 HALL, TIMOTHY ALAN ENERGY CONSERVATION: AN ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC POLICY FORMULATION, IMPLEMENTATION, AND ALTERNATIVES. THE UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA, PH.D., 1978 UniversiV MiciOTlms International 300 n.zeeb road, ann arbor, mi 48io6 0 1979 TIMOTHY ALAN HALL ALL RIGHTS RESERVED THE UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA GRADUATE COLLEGE ENERGY CONSERVATION; AN ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC POLICY FORMULATION, IMPLEMENTATION, AND ALTERNATIVES A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE FACULTY in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY By TIMOTHY A. HALL Norman, Oklahoma 1978 ENERGY CONSERVATION: AN ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC POLICY FORMULATION, IMPLEMENTATION, AND ALTERNATIVES APPROVED BY DISSERTATION COMMITTEE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study could not have been completed without the kind assistance and thoughtful guidance of many people. My dissertation committee provided a constant source of criti­ cism and direction not only during the research and writing phases of this study, but also throughout my graduate career. My debt to them is indeed great. My greatest thanks go to Dr. Irvin L. White, my dis­ sertation chairman, who offered his pragmatic, incisive, and constructive criticism on the research design and on subsequent chapter drafts as well. His own research and ideas concerning the conduct of applied policy analysis form the basis of the conceptual framework used in this study. Special thanks must also be given to Dr. Don E. Hash, Director of the Science and Public Policy Program at The University of Oklahoma, who first stimulated my interest in the relationship between science and policy. His knowledge of energy problems and issues was instrumental in every phase of the research. Dr. Steven C. Ballard constantly provided sound advice, editorial assistance, and helped me to structure my often diffuse ideas. In addition. Dr. Dwight F. Davis, Dr. iii Hugh G. MacNiven, and Dr. Jeffrey C. Rinehart all have my sincere appreciation for serving faithfully in their capacity as committee members and for their instruction and advice during my stay at Oklahoma. The research was greatly facilitated by the generous support I received as a research assistant with the Science and Public Policy Program. Working with an interdisciplin­ ary team on several federally-funded energy projects proved to be an intellectual challenge and a fertile professional environment for learning about and doing policy analyses. Thanks must be given to three other individuals. First, my wife, Kay Smalling Hall, provided unmeasurable support and demonstrated exceptional patience and understand­ ing throughout the entire project. Moreover, she added a deeper sense of meaning to the overall effort. Secondly and thirdly, my appreciation to Josef and Nathan, two sons who gave about as much as any others to see this research to conclusion. A final word of thanks to Geri Rowden for her friend­ ship, administrative support throughout my graduate career, and for her expertise in typing the final manuscript. IV t a b l e of c on te n ts Page LIST OF TABLES . * ................................. viii LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS................................ xi PART ONE. INTRODUCTION AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK Introduction to Part One...................... 2 Chapter I. INTRODUCTION................................... 4 Scope of the Study............................ 4 Purpose of the Research...................... 9 Review of the Energy Policy Literature........ 17 Early Analyses in the Energy Area Critiques of U.S. Energy Policy Conservation Research Outline of the Study.......................... 31 II. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND ASSUMPTIONS........... 32 Introduction.................................. 32 Public Policymakingf Policy Sciences, and Policy Analysis ............................ 33 Policy and Process The Contents of Policy Systems Analysis and Incrementalism The Issue Systems Framework .................. 48 Underlying Assumptions Operationalizing the Framework Step 1: Identify and Define the Substantive Policy Problems and Issues Step 2; Describe the Social and Political Context Step 3; Identify, Evaluate, and Compare Alternative Policies and Imple­ menting Strategies Summary.......... 71 v PART TWO. THE SOCIAL AND POLITICAL CONTEXT OF CONSERVATION PROBLEMS AND ISSUES Introduction to Part Two...................... 74 III. THE ENERGY CONSERVATION PROBLEM .............. 75 Introduction.................................. 75 Energy Supply and Demand...................... 77 The Historical Record Energy Consumption By Sector. .... .......... 88 Residential and Commercial Industrial Transportation Problems of Supply.............................. 110 Growing Dependence on Foreign Energy Resources Early Warnings of Impending Supply Problems The Nation's Energy Crisis Summary........................ 127 IV. THE CASE FOR ENERGY CONSERVATION................ 129 Introduction.................................... 129 Aftermath of the OPEC Embargo: Who Perceived W h a t ? ................ ..................... 131 Did the Public Perceive Energy As a Problem? Public Versus Elite Perceptions Perceptions of Responsibility What Happened and What Should Be Done? Early Efforts to Define a Conservation Response...................................... 147 Definitions of Conservation Conservation Strategies Summary........................................ 160 V. THE POLICY SYSTEM ...............................162 Introduction. ....... .................. 162 Historical Development of Conservation Policy . 164 Reorganizing the Bureaucracy to Include Conservation The Role of Congress Fragmented Jurisdiction Partisan Conflict Over Policy Tools The Energy Policy and Conservation Act The Energy Conservation and Production Act Federal-State Sharing of Responsibility The Impacts and Current Status of Policies and Programs. ........................ 207 The Residential and Commercial Sector The Industrial Sector vi The Transportation Sector Summary........................................ 232 PART THREE. EVALUATION OF ENERGY CONSERVATION ALTERNATIVES Introduction to Part Three...................... 236 VI. ALTERNATIVE POLICIES AND STRATEGIES FOR ENERGY CONSERVATION.................................... 243 Introduction.............................. 243 What Are the Alternatives?...................... 245 Assessment of Alternatives...................... 253 Coordinated Energy Conservation Planning and Management Education and Exhortation Market Incentives and Disincentives Technical Fix Financial Incentives and Disincentives Direct Regulatory Action Findings and Comparison of Alternatives .... 324 VII. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH........................................ 336 Introduction.................................... 336 Conservation and Emerging National Energy Policy.........................................337 Directions for Future Research.................. 341 Integrating Applied Policy Analysis and Political Science .......................... 344 BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................ 352 Vli LIST OF TABLES Table Page II-l. Criteria for Evaluating and Comparing Alternative Policies and Implementation Strategies.................................. 66 III-l. U.S. Energy Consumption, Quadrillion (10^^) Btu's, 1947-1975 ............................ 80 III-2. Average Annual Energy Growth Rates, Selected Periods, 1950-1975 . ...................... 82 III-3. Per Capita Energy Use and Growth Rates, Five- Year Periods, 1950-1975.................... 85 III-4. U.S. Energy Consumption by Economic Sectors, Quadrillion
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