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ELECTION 2018 RESULTS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Andrés Manuel López Obrador is the projected winner of the Presidential election. This situation would respond to a candidate that was able to capitalize on the high social discontent and an 18 year political effort. The AMLO effect is reflected at the national level, since the Coalition that he leads will obtain different strategic positions, such as the Head of Government of Mexico City, at least 3 governorships, first minority in the Federal Congress, among other local posts. This electoral process will result in a substantial change in the national political order. CONSIDERATIONS ESTIMATED PERCENTAGES With a historical participation rate (63% approx.), Mexico demonstrates once again the maturity of its Projected winner electoral democracy. AMLO will have broad citizen support, however it will face a scenario in which half of the population voted for another option, which implies a significant challenge. The post-electoral declarations of José Antonio Meade, Ricardo Anaya and Jaime Rodríguez; the messages of support from various political personalities and from the Business Coordinating Council; as well as the Andrés Manuel López Obrador congratulations of leaders of other nations, including Donald Trump; are elements that provide certainty to the transition period when projecting a message of stability. President Enrique Peña Nieto acknowledged the results announced by the INE and committed to carry out 53-53.8% an efficient and orderly transition process. The traditional parties (PRI, PAN and PRD) will be forced to enter a period of self-criticism and reflection. Initially, markets show a favorable reaction. After the press conferences of José Antonio Meade, Ricardo 22.1-22.8% Anaya and Jaime Rodríguez Calderón the dollar is quoting at 19.86 pesos. 32.3% Ricardo Anaya AMLO’S MESSAGE Conciliatory and inclusive message that reassures the markets. Calls for reconciliation and The independence of The fight against for the Fourth autonomous bodies will be corruption will be done at 15.7 -16% Transformation of the respected, especially BANXICO. all levels and with the country. Regarding the energy sector, the strictest commitment. contracts will be reviewed. Jose Antonio Meade Strengthen the internal Security: single command market, produce what the Financial discipline; decrease and institutional country consumes and in current expenditure. There coordination. generate productive will be no more increases in activities to foster job gasoline prices. 5.3-5.5% creation. INE : Jaime Rodríguez $19.86 63% 00:00 hours The results presented only reflect the voting tendency. The official results of the Source CURRENCY EXCHANGE PARTICIPATION CUT election will be announced by the INE on July 4- 5. RATE (USD vs MXN) ELECTION 2018 RESULTS FEDERAL CONGRESS (PROJECTED RESULTS) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES SENATE MAXIMUM MINIMUM MAXIMUM MINIMUM 142 127 54 48 CONSIDERATIONS The results show a plural conformation of the Federal Congress, 76 63 29 23 where no party will hold majority with enough legislators for reforms approval. 14 8 47 37 Until now, according to the published results, the tendency favors MORENA to integrate the first minority in both Chambers; PAN 43 33 11 8 positions as the second force and the PRI would become the third. 26 19 7 2 The vote inertia in favor of AMLO prompted the Coalition to obtain a greater number of spaces in Congress. 75 64 7 3 The PAN will be consolidated as an opposition where It could foster policies in which there is agreement with the political 37 27 8 4 agenda of the Executive, but it will be critical in the topics in which there is no consensus. 19 14 6 1 The results presented only reflect the votes tendency by coalition for the 74 65 9 5 integration of the Federal Congress. Once there is a greater advance in the counting of votes, the projection of legislators with a relative majority and proportional representation will be presented. OTHERS 1 0 OTHERS 2 0 Source: Consulta Mitofsky 6.7% 00:00 hours % PREP CUT ELECTION 2018 RESULTS STATE ELECTIONS (GOVERNORSHIPS) At the state level, the trends indicate a substantial change in the balance of power in the governorships. It is worth noting the rise of MORENA in most of the States, as well as the case of Movimiento Ciudadano in Jalisco. While the elections in Puebla, Veracruz and Yucatan are still undefined, it can be noted that the ‘punishment’ vote is also reflected in the local elections. CDMX 47-55% 34-40% CLOSED ELECTIONS JALISCO CONSIDERATIONS Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo Enrique Alfaro Ramírez The preliminary results project alternation in 6 of the 9 states Second Place: Alejandra Barrales (25-31%) Second Place: Carlos Lomelí (28-31%) with governor election (Chiapas, CDMX, Jalisco, Morelos y Third Place: Mike Arriola (9-15%) Third Place: Miguel Castro (15-19%) Erika Alonso Por Puebla al Frente 38.5% Tabasco). The PRI goes from having 14 to 13 governorships. For its PUEBLA part the PAN would retain 6 of 8 states and MORENA gets its Miguel Barbosa 35.1% first 4. Juntos Haremos Historia The results in Puebla, Veracuz and Yucatán reflect a MORELOS 46-54% CHIAPAS 41-49% technical tie between the candidates. Cuauhtémoc Blanco Bravo Rutilio Escandón Cadenas After 21 years of being ruled by the PRD, Mexico City will probably have alternation. MORENA is positioned as the first Second Place: Víctor Caballero (12-18%) Second Place: Roberto Albores (23-29%) Cuitláhuac García Third Place: Rodrigo Gayosso (9-15%) 47.8% political force in the City. Third Place:José A. Aguilar B (13-19%) Juntos Haremos Historia VERACRUZ In Chiapas, the internal division of the PVEM (Green Party) is reflected in the loss of the governorship. This condition Miguel A. Yunes 36.1% favored the growth of MORENA in the State. Por Veracruz al Frente Guanajuato is the only State that will not have alternation and with this, the PAN’s presence in the state is ratified. GUANAJUATO 42-48% 52-58% TABASCO Sinhué Rodríguez Vallejo For the first time, Movimiento Ciudadano wins a Adán A. López Hernández governorship in the country (Jalisco). The party is Mauricio Vila Dosal 38.09% Second Place: Ricardo Sheffield (26-30%) Second Place: Gerardo Guadiano expected to govern key Municipalities and to obtain a Third Place: Gerardo Sánchez (17-21%) YUCATÁN Por Yucatán al Frente (19-23%) majority in the Local Congress. Third Place: Georgina Trujillo (15- 19%) The results presented only reflect the voting tendency for Mauricio Sahuí 37.01% Governor and Head of Government of CDMX. Tendencies from State PREPS - 00:00 hrs.